Presented at the 2nd Plenary Conference of the CCS "The Comparative Analysis of Political Attitudes and Behaviours of Candidates Standing for Office in National Parliament Elections", MZES, University of Mannheim, 27 – 29 January 2012
La aseguradora Coface a través de su publicación "Panorama" nos hace un análisis del riesgo político en Europa y de las consecuencias que puede conllevar.
A Paper which discusses the concept of Political Arrogance. It seeks to do this by reference to the UK context. It focuses on the notion of political immaturity and political arrogance as a block against political change. It focuses on the gap between belief systems and emergent political reality – and the notion of an Outmoded Worldview. It looks both at those Prime Ministers that have been behind the curve of history and those that have sought to pre-empt it. It uses as a case study example the 2017 General Election before showing that political arrogance is a mark both of strength and weakness when utilised in different circumstances. It then goes on to discuss how political arrogance can morph into hubris. It concludes that a gap has opened up between mass and elite publics because of politically arrogant behaviour arguing that this is likely to result in political instability which is only likely to be resolved by a large scale replacement of the political elites.
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
Sample university project on economics and politics. No guarantee against inaccuracy or misstatements. The slide deck offers an example of how a group of undergraduate students tackled an open-ended question and structured a deliverable.
Using individual data on voting and political parties manifestos in European coun- tries, we empirically characterize the drivers of voting for populist parties (the demand side) as well as the presence of populist parties (the supply side). We show that the economic insecurity drivers of the demand of populism are significant, especially when considering the key interactions with turnout incentives, neglected in previous studies. Once turnout effects are taken into account, economic insecurity drives consensus to populist policies directly and through indirect negative effects on trust and attitudes towards immigrants. On the supply side, populist parties are more likely to emerge when countries are faced with a systemic crisis of economic security. The orientation choice of populist parties, i.e., whether they arise on left or right of the political spec- trum, is determined by the availability of political space. The typical mainstream parties response is to reduce the distance of their platform from that of successful populist entrants, amplifying the aggregate supply of populist policies.
The paper attempts to analyze the results of the European Social Survey
Round 6 (2012, 2013), focusing on the section related to how democracy is understood in Poland and in the Czech Republic. The most interesting issue encompassed
the differences in how democracy is defined in the two countries and the outcomes
these differences produce in terms of the perceived legitimacy of the system, as well
as demographic factors that correlate with differences in the understanding of democracy in both surveyed groups. Statistical analyses carried out in the paper indicated
the presence of different definitions of democracy formulated in Poland and in the
Czech Republic (the Czechs gave stronger emphasis to the liberal aspect of democracy, whereas Poles stressed its social aspects more). Nevertheless, the relationship
between the definition of democracy and the perceived level of legitimacy of the democratic system (for dispersed and specific legitimacy alike) were found to be relatively
weak, as was the case of the relationship between the understanding of democracy,
system legitimacy and socio-demographic factors. The only factor found to be significant for the perceived level of legitimacy of the democratic system concerned the
level of satisfaction with one’s own material situation.
La aseguradora Coface a través de su publicación "Panorama" nos hace un análisis del riesgo político en Europa y de las consecuencias que puede conllevar.
A Paper which discusses the concept of Political Arrogance. It seeks to do this by reference to the UK context. It focuses on the notion of political immaturity and political arrogance as a block against political change. It focuses on the gap between belief systems and emergent political reality – and the notion of an Outmoded Worldview. It looks both at those Prime Ministers that have been behind the curve of history and those that have sought to pre-empt it. It uses as a case study example the 2017 General Election before showing that political arrogance is a mark both of strength and weakness when utilised in different circumstances. It then goes on to discuss how political arrogance can morph into hubris. It concludes that a gap has opened up between mass and elite publics because of politically arrogant behaviour arguing that this is likely to result in political instability which is only likely to be resolved by a large scale replacement of the political elites.
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
Sample university project on economics and politics. No guarantee against inaccuracy or misstatements. The slide deck offers an example of how a group of undergraduate students tackled an open-ended question and structured a deliverable.
Using individual data on voting and political parties manifestos in European coun- tries, we empirically characterize the drivers of voting for populist parties (the demand side) as well as the presence of populist parties (the supply side). We show that the economic insecurity drivers of the demand of populism are significant, especially when considering the key interactions with turnout incentives, neglected in previous studies. Once turnout effects are taken into account, economic insecurity drives consensus to populist policies directly and through indirect negative effects on trust and attitudes towards immigrants. On the supply side, populist parties are more likely to emerge when countries are faced with a systemic crisis of economic security. The orientation choice of populist parties, i.e., whether they arise on left or right of the political spec- trum, is determined by the availability of political space. The typical mainstream parties response is to reduce the distance of their platform from that of successful populist entrants, amplifying the aggregate supply of populist policies.
The paper attempts to analyze the results of the European Social Survey
Round 6 (2012, 2013), focusing on the section related to how democracy is understood in Poland and in the Czech Republic. The most interesting issue encompassed
the differences in how democracy is defined in the two countries and the outcomes
these differences produce in terms of the perceived legitimacy of the system, as well
as demographic factors that correlate with differences in the understanding of democracy in both surveyed groups. Statistical analyses carried out in the paper indicated
the presence of different definitions of democracy formulated in Poland and in the
Czech Republic (the Czechs gave stronger emphasis to the liberal aspect of democracy, whereas Poles stressed its social aspects more). Nevertheless, the relationship
between the definition of democracy and the perceived level of legitimacy of the democratic system (for dispersed and specific legitimacy alike) were found to be relatively
weak, as was the case of the relationship between the understanding of democracy,
system legitimacy and socio-demographic factors. The only factor found to be significant for the perceived level of legitimacy of the democratic system concerned the
level of satisfaction with one’s own material situation.
Ivo Pezzuto - Eurozone Recovery: Is It Sustainable? (July 2017)Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
This article addresses the topic of the surprise European Economy recovery in 2017 and its possible implications. The article aims to provide a broad and comprehensive understanding of the triggering factors that have contributed to this unexpected economic revival and to the slow and uneven economic recovery in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Great Recession. The article also aims to highlight the potential downside risks related to the still unsolved structural issues that caused the debt overhang and macroeconomic imbalances in Europe in the past decade. Thus, the European Union and the Eurozone seem to be on course for a potential brighter future in the years to come but internal and external risks might still undermine the path to sustained growth, full economic recovery, and stronger integration in the region unless proper political, economic, fiscal, and monetary governance and policies are assured to make the euro area more resilient to future systemic shocks.
Europe - Results of an online survey commissioned by the Association of Germa...Bankenverband
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Carrots or Sticks: The Choice and Impact of EU Democratic Sanctions and AidPaulina Pospieszna
Both the provision of democracy aid and the imposition of sanctions are tools to promote
democracy. Yet, it is unclear under which conditions states choose to set positive or negative
incentives. In order to answer which tool—democracy aid or democratic sanctions—is more
effective, one has to analyse the actual form of the provision of aid. Sanctions and democracy aid
can also be employed at the same time. The goal of this study is to determine their joint effect on
democratization in recipient countries. We argue that sending civil society aid or democracy aid
channeled through NGOs and the civil society when sanctions are in place, enhances the
effectiveness of sanctions as a democracy promotion tool because the civil society can be
empowered to introduce democratic changes in its country—so additionally to the top-down
pressure created by sanctions, there is bottom-up pressure exerted by the civil society. Our results
suggest that democratic sanctions are more likely to be successful if democracy aid bypasses the
government in a target state. Conversely, other forms of aid provision tend to decrease the
effectiveness of sanctions. In order to precisely explain the joint impact of positive and negative
incentives on democratization, we employ a new comprehensive dataset on economic sanctions
for the period between 1989 and 2015 which integrates and updates the Threats and Imposition of
Economic Sanctions and the GIGA sanctions data sets, merged with disaggregated OECD aid data
and V-Dem as well as PolityIV democracy scores.
A paper outlining the causes and conditions of the rise of far-right parties in Western Europe, written for my Governments and Politics of Western Europe class.
The advancement of the extreme right and of the extreme left in the european ...Fernando Alcoforado
The economic crisis of the world capitalist system that broke out in 2008 in the United States led the European Union to economic stagnation with serious political and social consequences. This crisis led to the strengthening of political parties of the extreme right and extreme left in several countries. The rise of extreme right parties happens in much countries of Europe. The outcome of the elections to the European Parliament in 2014, which took place in May and whose new term began in July, confirmed this trend and issued a warning: the significant growth of the extreme right and eurosceptics (which are against the existence of the European Union) on the continent.
In addition to the rise of extreme right parties, there are also the extreme left parties. An early parliamentary election coming up in Greece, and the party of the radical left Syriza, which promises to cancel the austerity program and to cancel the public debt, is very close to power. In Spain, the extreme left party Podemos (We can) are preparing for the 2015 parliamentary elections, with a chance of winning. In Portugal, Cyprus and Ireland, the extreme leftist movements have also attracted voters tired of economic rigor imposed "from above" by the European Union and nostalgic of a generous welfare state.
The dilemmas of the developmental state: democracy and economic development i...FGV Brazil
Is it possible to reconcile one of the institutional strategies to promote development, known in the literature as “the developmental state”, with contemporary democratic systems of government? If so, what are the challenges, trade-offs and potential gains that such an effort may entail? The vast literature on “the developmental state” claims that it is more likely to succeed under autocratic regimes. While a “democratic developmental state” seems possible in theory, there is very little empirical evidence to show how it would work in practice. This article tries to contribute to this debate by analyzing the case of Brazil, a country that transitioned from a military dictatorship to a democratic regime in the late 1980s, and has been moving towards increasing state interventionism since 2002. While the policies implemented by the “New Developmental State” in Brazil have been explored in the academic literature, their democratic dimensions remain unchartered.
Date: 2015
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Prado, Mariana Mota
Schapiro, Mario Gomes
Coutinho, Diogo R.
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This article addresses the topic of the surprise European Economy recovery in 2017 and its possible implications. The article aims to provide a broad and comprehensive understanding of the triggering factors that have contributed to this unexpected economic revival and to the slow and uneven economic recovery in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Great Recession. The article also aims to highlight the potential downside risks related to the still unsolved structural issues that caused the debt overhang and macroeconomic imbalances in Europe in the past decade. Thus, the European Union and the Eurozone seem to be on course for a potential brighter future in the years to come but internal and external risks might still undermine the path to sustained growth, full economic recovery, and stronger integration in the region unless proper political, economic, fiscal, and monetary governance and policies are assured to make the euro area more resilient to future systemic shocks.
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The economic crisis of the world capitalist system that broke out in 2008 in the United States led the European Union to economic stagnation with serious political and social consequences. This crisis led to the strengthening of political parties of the extreme right and extreme left in several countries. The rise of extreme right parties happens in much countries of Europe. The outcome of the elections to the European Parliament in 2014, which took place in May and whose new term began in July, confirmed this trend and issued a warning: the significant growth of the extreme right and eurosceptics (which are against the existence of the European Union) on the continent.
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#First_India_NewsPaper
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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Political consensus and conflict in greece and portugal
1. Investigating consensus versus conflict between the Greek and
Portuguese political elites during the economic crisis: a matter of
ideology?
Eftichia Teperoglou
Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES) &
Institute of Greek Politics , Department of Political Science and Public Administration,
University of Athens, Greece
&
Ioannis Andreadis
Department of Political Sciences, Aristotle University Thessaloniki, Greece
2nd Plenary Conference of the CCS
The Comparative Analysis of Political Attitudes and Behaviours
of Candidates Standing for Office in National Parliament Elections
Mannheim 27-29 January 2012
2. • Offer possible explanations of the fact that the consensus’ between the two major
political parties concerning the need to pursue restrictive economic policies has
proven to be far more elusive in the case of Greece in relation to Portugal ►
Examine the perceptions of candidates belonging to Pan-Hellenic Socialist
Movement (PASOK) and Nea Dimokratia (ND) for Greece and Partido Socialista (PS)
and Partido Social Democrata (PSD) for Portugal at a time right before the full onset
of the crisis.
• Determine whether ideological distance (or proximity) is responsible for the divergent
outcomes of the two countries or whether the latter should be attributed to other
factors.
• Identify patterns of differentiation not only between the political elites of the two
countries, but also within each country’s political personnel.
How?
We are using data from the 2009 CCS surveys and we compare the ideological
preferences and value orientations around specific issues which have been included
at the Core CCS Questionnaire
Make the first steps towards a model of measurement of consensus for ordered
categorical data
3. As a synonym of legitimacy
As an expression of solidarity or social cohesion
Words such as “harmony”, “unanimity”, “general
agreement” and “accord” capture some of the other main
aspects of “ consensus”
In politics, it can be defined as an operation
characterized by reliance upon compromise and a
search for some accommodation of divergent interests
4. Is a more extensive type of consensus needed in times of crisis?
(McClosky 1964)
Two different schools in elite theory
◦ Major external events often push some elite groups to move
towards a Pareto-optimal equilibrium.
◦ in a crisis political consensus is almost impossible to achieve
within a context of fiscal austerity
Economical decline (but also economic growth; Olson 1963) is often
linked to political conflict
5. “Consensus Period I” (through 2010): consensus between PS and PSD to a
series of austerity packages demanded by the EU to tackle the difficulties in
borrowing money from the market
Beginning of 2011: the public debt and the unemployment rate were
dramatically increased; the interest rate in the secondary markets had passed
the 7%, the internal and external pressure to accept the bailout had a prominent
position in the political agenda
23 March 2011: the opposition parties rejected a new austerity package to be
passed. Sócrates resigned, early elections were scheduled for the 5th of June
2011
“Consensus Period II” : on 6 April 2011 Sócrates officially asked for a bailout
for Portugal (a €78 billion bailout package). The memorandum of agreement
was completed in early May and subscribed by all three parties (PS, PSD and
CDS-PP)
Dissensus Period I : After the agreement various debates and conflicts on the
question of responsibility for the financial situation of the country
Legislative elections of June 2011: a “Post-Bail-out Election” (Magalhães
2011); lowest-ever for a legislative election turnout (58%), defeat of the PS, the
coalition government PSD-CDS, party system fragmentation which remained
unchanged compared to 2009
6. Dissensus Period I :Pre-Memorandum period -end of 2009: PASOK expressed
doubts about the accuracy of the previous government’s calculations of the
budget deficit and announced that the actual deficit was several percentage
points (of GDP) higher in relation to the figure that was presented by the former
conservative government ( “unreliable” economic figures)
On 23 April 2010: the Greek government requested that the EU- ECB-IMF
bailout package be activated and beginning of Dissensus Period II
Dissensus Period III: for the “Mid-term Strategy Plan” (June 2011) : PASOK
and ND failed to reach a consensus on the necessary measures to qualify for
this package; growing political unrest, re-shuffled cabinet, vote of confidence in
the parliament
Dissensus Period IV: end of October- beginning of November 2011 proposal
of referendum- vote for confidence in order to begin the negotiations with
opposition parties to form a coalition “emergency” government.
11 November 2011: coalition government formed by PASOK, ND and LAOS.
Start of a consensus period?
7. Portugal is consensual and unitary, while Greece is an “eccentric” case
of majoritarianism (Lijphart et al. 1988)
Nonplural societies
Trend of significant reduction of the effective number of parliamentary
parties in Portugal. In both countries the number is now around 3.
In both countries, the socio-economic dimension is the only one with
high salience. Religious, regime support and foreign policy are at the
group of medium salience in Portugal, while in Greece is only the
regime support
On the proportions of time during which minimal winning cabinets and
one-party cabinets were in power, Greece is an exception as it stands
in the same group with the British-heritage countries at the majoritarian
end, reaching the remarkable mean of 96.9. For Portugal the two
elements are unequally combined; the mean is on 40.2
8. 4.04 for Portugal and 8.08 for Greece on the
disproportionality and type of electoral system used in
legislative elections.
Greece represents one of the most prominent examples
of majoritarianism, while in Portugal there is marked
move away from the initial post-authoritarian model of
consensus democracy.
Any attempt to include the two countries in the same
group is bound to fail to capture the much more dynamic
aspects of the Portuguese system.
9. k −1
LSQ = ∑ ( Fi − 0.5 )
2
i =1
Range [0,1]
Value 0: minimum consensus
Value 1: maximum consensus
13. Women jobs
Globalization
Torturing a prisoner
Immigrants customs
Politics to abstain
Military assistance
Same-sex marriages
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
Portugal Greece
14. Social security
Reform democracy
Matters of abortion
Stiffer sentences
Immigrants are good
Income redistributed
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8
Portugal Greece
15. 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree
Party A Party B
16. 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Strongly agree Agree Neither - nor Disagree Strongly disagree
Party A Party B
25. The only issue of intensive conflict among the
Portuguese candidates is the one of prohibition of the
same-sex marriages by law.
The left-right is an issue of intense conflict in Greece,
while the Portuguese data confirm a lower barrier
between left and right among the two parties
The content of the L-R dimension is more determined by
value-based polarities and less by economic ideology
Cultural liberalism, Immigration (in economic trends) and
the “ War against terrorism” form patterns of dispersion
between the candidates of PT and GR
26. The Portuguese data reveal trends towards economic liberalism,
while the Greek data reveals overall preferences in favour of state
interventionism
The main factor which “contributes” to the dissensus between the
Greek candidates on economic issues is mainly the internal
dispersion between ND candidates ( “liberal right” versus the
“popular right” )
The ideological distance certainly contributes to understand the
difficulties of consensus in Greece. However, we should keep in
mind that the main factor is the culture of majoritarianism that drives
the Greek political elites to pursue office-seeking strategies for one
party and not for a coalition government