The document discusses forecasting room availability in hotels. It explains that forecasting the number of rooms available for sale is important for front office planning and management. The summary provides an overview of key factors considered in forecasts, such as historical occupancy data, reservations, expected no-shows, overstays and understays. Formulas are provided to calculate forecasts based on this data. Maintaining accurate forecasts is important for revenue management and scheduling staff.

1. PLANNING &
EVALUATING FRONT
OFFICE OPERATIONS
PRABAL MUKHERJEE
FACULTY
INDIAN HOTEL ACADEMY

2. FORECASTING
The most important short-term planning performed by front-office
managers is forecasting the number of rooms available for sale on any
future date. Room availability forecasts are used to help manage the
reservations process and guide front-office in effective room
management. Forecasting may be especially important on nights when
a full house (100% occupancy) is possible. A room availability forecast

3. FORECASTING
can also be used as an occupancy forecast, since there is a fixed
number of rooms available in the hotel, forecasting the number of
rooms expected to be occupied forecasts the occupancy percentage
expected on a given date.
Rooms occupancy forecasts can be useful to the front-office and other
departments for scheduling the necessary number of employees for an
expected volume of business.

4. FORECASTING
Obviously, a forecast is only as reliable as
the information on which it is based .Since forecasts can serve as a
guide in determining operating costs, every effort should be made to
ensure forecasting accuracy.
Various factors which play an important role while forecasting room
availability.

5. FORECASTING
1. A thorough knowledge of the hotel and its surroundings.
2. Market profile of the constituencies the hotel services.
3. Occupancy data for the past several months and for the same
period of the previous year.
4. Reservation trends and a history of reservation lead times(how far
is advance reservations are made)

6. FORECASTING
5. A listing of special events scheduled in the surrounding
geographical area.
6. Business profile of specific groups booked for the forecast dates.
7. The number of non-guaranteed and guaranteed reservations and
an estimate of the number of expected no-shows.
8. Group bookings and the cut-off date for room blocks held for the
forecast dates.

7. FORECASTING
9. The impact of city-wide or multi-hotel groups and their potential
influence on the forecast dates.
10. Plans for remodeling or renovating the hotel that would change
the number of available rooms.
11. Construction or renovation plans for competitive hotels in the
area.

8. FORECASTING
Forecasting Data
The process of forecasting room availability generally relies on
historical occupancy data. To facilitate forecasting ,the following
daily occupancy data should be collected:
Number of expected room arrivals
Number of expected room walk-ins
Number of expected room stayovers(rooms occupied on previous

9. FORECASTING
nights that will continues to be occupied for the night in question)
Number of expected room no-shows
Number of expected room understays(check-outs occurring
before expected departure date)
Number of expected room check-outs
Number of expected room overstays (check-outs occurring after
the expected departure)

10. FORECASTING
Over- all, the above data are important to room availability forecasting
since they are used in calculating various daily operating ratios that
help determine the number of available rooms for sale.

11. FORECASTING
uests Arrivals walkins Reser. No show Occupied Rooms Overstay Understays
118 70 13 63 03 95 7 1
145 55 15 48 08 120 9 5
176 68 16 56 04 115 12 4
117 53 22 48 17 90 5 3
75 35 08 35 08 50 3 0
86 28 06 26 04 55 2 8
49 17 10 12 05 40 4 5
766 326 90 288 52 565 42 26

12. FORECASTING
PERCENTAGE OF UNDERSTAY : When a guest checks out before his expected date of
depurture as mentioned in at the time of biiking or at the time of registration, is known as
understay. The percentage of understay is calculated by dividing the total number of
understays during the forecast period by the total number of check-outs in the same period
and then multiplying by 100.
Understay percentage = Total no. of understays in a specific duration X 100
Total no. of check-outs in that duration

13. FORECASTING
= 26/335x100
= 7.6 %
Understays lead to the availability of more rooms at the last moment, which cannot be sold by
the efforts of the front office and sales departments. This results in the loss of revenue. The
condition is reverse in the case of overstays when the occupancy is lean - then the hotel
generates extra revenue. The front desk employees should always re-confirm the expected
date of departure from the guest at the time of registration.

14. FORECASTING
PERCENTAGE OF NO-SHOWS : If a guest with a confrimed reservation does not arrive at the
hotel on the date of arrival and does not convey his change of plan to the hotel, it is known as
no-show. The no-show percentage helps the front office manager to decide the ealy release of
rooms to chance guests or walk-ins. The no-show percentage can be calculated by dividing the
total number of no-shows in specific duration by the total number of bookings made in the
same period and then multiplying by 100.
No-show percentage = Total number of no-shows in a specific duration X 100
Total nuber of reservations in that specific durtion

15. FORECASTING
=50/280x100
= 17.54%
PERCENTGE OF OVERSTAY
Guests staying beyond their expected date of departure are known as overstays. The
percentage of overstays can be calculated by dividing the total number of overstays in a
specific duration by the total number of check-outs in the same period and then multiplying
by 100. Overstays result in lowering the room availability. This condition id favourable in the
lean season as hotels generally run on low occupancy levels and can accommodate the
request of overstay.

16. FORECASTING
The percentage of overstays, calculated from the data of Hotel ABC, is as under:
Overstay Percentage = Total no. of overstays in specific duration X 100
Total number of check-outs in that duration
= 42/335 X 100
= 12.53%

17. FORECASTING
Once the above statistics are gathered, one can forecast the total availability of rooms for any
particular day by processing the information as under:
Total availability of rooms = Total number of guests - Out of order rooms - Total number of
stay overs - Total number of reservations + Number of reservations X percentage of no-shows
- number of overstays.
Forecasting helps in developing revenue management strategies of the hotel. Accuracy in
forecasting is achieved by the proper analysis of information available to the manager and
also by the personal experience of the manager.

18. FORCASTINGFORECAST FORMULA
Once relevant occupancy statistics have been gathered" the number of rooms
available for sale on any given date can be determined by the following formula :

19. FORCASTING
Note that this formula does not include walk-ins. They are not included because the
number of walk-ins a hotel can accept is determined by the number of rooms that
remain available for sale. If a hotel is full due to e!isting reservations," stayovers" and
other factors" it cannot accept walk-ins.
As an example, take Hotel Holy Cross, a 120 room property, where on April, 01, there were 3 out of order
rooms, 55 stayovers. On that day 42 guests are with reservations, scheduled to arrive. Since the percentage
of no shows has been recently calculated the 18.06 percent, the front office manager calculates that as
many as 8 guests

20. FORECASTING
● Ten-Day room availability forecasting – The ten-day room availability forecasting at most
lodges is developed collectively by means of the front administrative center supervisor and the
reservations manager, almost certainly together with a forecast committee. A ten-day forecast
almost always includes :
● Day-to-day forecasted occupancy figures, including room arrivals, room departures, rooms
bought, and number of friends.
● The number of crew commitments, with a listing of each and every team’s title, arrival and
departure dates, number of rooms reserved, quantity of friends and probably quoted room rates.
● A comparison of the previous interval’s forecasted and actual room counts
and occupancy percentages

21. FORECASTING
● The ten-day room availability forecasting must be completed and
allotted to all department offices to help plan their staffing for the
upcoming period.
● Three-Day room availability forecasting – a 3-day room availability
forecasting is an updated report that reflects a extra current estimate of
room availability. It details any tremendous alterations from the ten-day
forecast. The three-day forecast is meant to advisor management in quality
tuning labor schedules and adjusting room availability understanding.