Philosophy of Science for Engineers at UPC Barcelona - Overview

Modelling and Simulation
and Philosophy of Science for Engineers
Chair for Information Systems Management
University of Bayreuth
Prof. Dr. Torsten Eymann

2Model Building and SimulationWS 2012-13 MODUS
Lectures and Exercises
Lectures:
Week 1
Introduction to the “Philosophy of Science”
Research using Model Building and Simulation
Exercises:
Week 3
Modeling and simulation with AnyLogic software
Application of acquired knowledge to simulate a scientific problem
Material: http://un.iversity.org/i/g/plollz
Certificate of performance:
Assignments, project work

About Me
Full Professor for Information Systems
Management since 2004
University of Bayreuth, Germany
12.000 students at 70.000 population
Courses on
Fundamentals of Information Systems
Management and Electronic Commerce
Business Intelligence
IT-Infrastructures
IT-Governance and IT-Security
Modelling and Simulation

What is Science?
Science and the Theory of Science
Epistemology, Logic und Metaphysics
Theory, Hypothesis, Antithesis, Synthesis
Falsification, Rejection and Acceptance
Hermeneutics, Empirism, Rationalism
Paradigms and Scientific Programs
Scientific Method
4

Core Questions
Was ist Science?
How to distinguish from Consulting or Astrology?
Properties of Scientific Theories
Elements of Theories and Relations between them
Acceptable Scientific Methods and Processes
Ranking of Sciences – The Two Cultures
Natural Sciences above all?
How reliable is a scientific statement?

Philosophy of Science and Information Systems Research
Part 1: Basic concepts of science and
Philosophy of Science

Cloud computing use will double by 2020
The medium distance from Earth to Sun is 149.597.870 km
Increasing the price of a car by 20% leads to increased turnover by 20%
92% of German Internet users never upload videos to YouTube
Tomorrow will be a 70% chance of rain
Science or not?

Definition: Science
Science is
any system of knowledge that is concerned with the
physical world and its phenomena and that entails
unbiased observations and systematic
experimentation. In general, a science involves a
pursuit of knowledge covering general truths or the
operations of fundamental laws.
science. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved
June 17, 2008, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online:
http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9066286

Science broken down in pieces
any system of knowledge (not just a fact)
concerned with the physical world and its
phenomena (something to observe)
unbiased observations and systematic
experimentation (interpersonal, generalizable)
pursuit of knowledge (a method) covering
general truths or
the operations of fundamental laws.

What is Science?

There are nine million bicycles in Beijing
That's a fact,
It's a thing we can't deny
Like the fact that I will love you till I die.
We are twelve billion light years from the edge,
That's a guess,
No-one can ever say it's true
But I know that I will always be with you.

FACT

SCIENTIFIC
FACT

GUESS

QUALIFIED
GUESS

Definition: Epistemology
the study of the nature, origin, and limits of human knowledge. The term is
derived from the Greek episteme (“knowledge”) and logos (“reason”), and
accordingly the field is sometimes referred to as the theory of knowledge.
epistemology. (2008). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved June 17, 2008, from
Encyclopædia Britannica Online: http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9106052
tries to answer questions like "What is knowledge?", "How is knowledge
acquired?", and "What do people know?“
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemology
18.06.2013
16
Torsten Eymann, U Bayreuth, Germany

What is Knowledge?
Moore’s Paradox: "It's raining
outside but I don't believe that it is.“
(Contradiction of Belief 
Knowledge)
„I believe this bridge is safe to cross“
vs. „I know this bridge is safe to
cross“
[http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Image:Classical-
Definition-of-Kno.svg]

Scientific Discovery and Prediction
Discovering a Theory
is a creative act
"To raise new questions, new
possibilities, to regard old
problems from a new angle,
requires creative imagination and
marks real advance in science."
p.92, Albert Einstein and Leopold
Infeld (1938), The Evolution of Physics:
from early concepts to relativity and
quanta ISBN 0-671-20156-5
"The instant I saw the picture my
mouth fell open and my pulse
began to race.“
James D. Watson (1968), The Double
Helix, page 167. New York: Atheneum

Scientific Conclusion and Reasoning
Proving a theory is
hard labour
“During all those years of
experimentation and research, I never
once made a discovery. All my work
was deductive, and the results I
achieved were those of invention, pure
and simple.”
Thomas Alva Edison, “Talks with Edison"
by George Parsons Lathrop in Harpers
magazine, Vol. 80 (February 1890), p. 425
"I am not accustomed to saying
anything with certainty after only one
or two observations."[27]
Andreas Vesalius (1546)

Getting your Ph.D. requires
An Idea
Perseverance
A realistic view on the achievable
Synopsis
20

SCIENCE (NOT)

Polywater
"Unnatural Water". Time
magazine. December 19, 1969.
Western scientists were
frankly skeptical. Russian
Chemists N. Fedyakin and Boris
Deryagin claimed to have
produced a mysterious new
substance, a form of water
that was so stable it boiled
only at about 1,000°F., or five
times the boiling temperature
of natural water. It did not
evaporate. It did not freeze—
though at —40°F., with little or
no expansion, it hardened into
a glassy substance quite unlike
ice.

Science – The end of the world by polywater
vacuum
glass tube
polywater

Characteristics of polywater
Characteristics Water Polywater
viscosity liquid jellylike
freezing point 0 C -30 C to -60 C
boiling point 100 C 150 C to 250 C

"Doubts about Polywater". Time
magazine. October 19, 1970.
"Challenged by critics to let
impartial scientists analyze his
polywater, Deryagin had turned
over 25 tiny samples of the
substance to investigators of the
Soviet Academy of Sciences'
Institute of Chemical Physics. The
results, which were published in
the journal, showed that
Deryagin's polywater was badly
contaminated by organic
compounds, including lipids and
phospholipids, which are
ingredients of human
perspiration."

Indicator of the research of polywater
Discovery of an new type of water by Russian Scientists
Desired “pursuit race” of the West
Discovery may jeopardize continuity of the Earth (hysteria)
Reproducibility only in extremely small quantities
Skeptics are accused of sloppiness

Definition: Metaphysics
the philosophical study whose
object is to determine the real
nature of things—to determine
the meaning, structure, and
principles of whatever is
insofar as it is.
Aristotle had distinguished two
tasks for the philosopher: first,
to investigate the nature and
properties of what exists in the
natural, or sensible, world, and
second, to explore the
characteristics of “Being as
such” and to inquire into the
character of “the substance
that is free from movement,”
Camille Flammarion,
L'Atmosphere:
Météorologie Populaire
(Paris, 1888), p. 163.
metaphysics. (2008). In
Encyclopædia
Britannica. Retrieved
June 17, 2008, from
Encyclopædia
Britannica Online:
http://www.britannic
a.com/eb/article-
9108718

Definition: Ethics
also called moral
philosophy.
the discipline concerned
with what is morally good
and bad, right and wrong.
The term is also applied to
any system or theory of
moral values or principles.
ethics. (2008). In Encyclopædia
Britannica. Retrieved
June 17, 2008, from
Encyclopædia Britannica
Online:
http://www.britannica.com/eb/
article-9106054
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rembrandt_Harmensz._van_Ri
jn_079.jpg

Science - Science areas
What unites and distinguishes the scientific work to the polywater and the x-ray
research?
Criterion Polywater X-rays
phenomenon unreal real
nature of
science
pathological
science
natural
science
elaborateness of
the experiments
careful
implementation
careful
implementation
measurability of
the effect
hardly
measurable effect
with the naked
eye
type of research directed as desired open

Science - Science areas
pathological science pseudoscienceparascience
Non-science
formal or
ideal science
mathematics
logic
real science
natural science cultural science
specific natural
science
engineering
electrical
engineering
mechanical
engineering
physics
chemistry
social
science
economy
law
sociology
humanities
philosophy
linguistics
history
Science

Science – Scientific ideal
Answers to "important" issues
Get real answers
Recognisability of the answers to be true
Deductive suggestion from one component to another
*Radnitzky 1979

Science – Knowledge gained through induction or
deduction
theory
empiricism
statements about some events
statements about all events
inductiondeduction

Inductivism – The principle of induction
theory
empiricism
inductiondeduction
“if a large number of A’s have been
observed under a wide variety of
conditions, and if all these observed A’s
have the property B, then all A’s probably
have the property B”
Chalmers 1999
„ Wenn eine große Anzahl von A unter einer
großen Vielfalt von Bedingungen
beobachtet wird, und wenn alle diese
beobachteten A ohne Ausnahme die
Eigenschaft B besitzen, dann besitzen alle
A die Eigenschaft B.“
Chalmers 2001

Empiricism – Inductive gain of insights
experience knowledgeexplorate
„[…] Vertrautsein
mit bestimmten
Handlungs- und
Sachzusam-
menhängen
ohne Rekurs auf
ein hiervon
unabhängiges
theoretisches
Wissen.“
Mittelstraß 1980
Knowledge, based on arguments
and (strict) checks
opposite: suppose or belief
Classical Empiricism
Exponents:
Aristoteles (384 – 322 v. Chr.)
John Locke (1632 – 1704)
George Berkeley (1685 – 1753)
David Hume (1711 – 1776)
John Stuart Mill (1806 – 1873)
[…] familiarity
with specific
action and
subject
interdepencies
without recourse
to an
independent
theoretical
knowledge.
Mittelstraß 1980

Logical empiricism – A unit of science?
Logical Empiricism = Logical Positivism = Neo-positivism
Positivism
1. Insights from facts
2. Rejection of metaphysics
Exponents:
Henri de Saint-Simon (1760 – 1825)
Auguste Comte (1798 – 1857)
Target
Criteria for evaluating philosophical
methods
(Classical) Empiricism
Inductive gain of insight

Logical empiricism – Some exponents
Rudolf Carnap
(1891 – 1970)
http://www.iep.utm.edu
Ludwig Wittgenstein
(1889 – 1951) http://www.iep.utm.edu
Bertrand Russell
(1872 – 1970)
http://www.iep.utm.edu
„Wiener Kreis“: Vienna circle
… et al.

Rationalism – Knowledge by thinking?!
transmission
?
knowledge
interpretation via
senses
1 kg 100 kg
religious apocalypse/
prophecy
Age of the earth: 6.000 – 12.000 years
thinking

Rationalism – Knowledge by thinking?!
Existence of "a priori truths“
Mathematics as obvious truth (e.g., it is always "1 +1 = 2")
Gain of insight by deduction
What truth follows from what truth?
Possible errors:
“A person is mortal.“ – “They are not human.“ – “They are immortal.“ 
illogical (Animals are immortal?)
“If God had created the universe, it would be rule in the order of nature.” –
“There is order through the laws of nature.” – “God created the universe.“ 
illogical (Other reasons for the laws of nature?)

If I know what to search for and have a generalizable process (a method), then I
will arrive at some (comprehensible and precise) results
= acceptance or rejection of a scientific theory
Comprehension
Is a theory correct, if assertions are logically building upon each other (can I
verify?) or
Is a theory correct, as long as there are no observations in contradiction to the
theory (can‘t I falsify?)
Structure and Method

Falsifiability (Popper)
Karl Popper. Flv

Falsifiability – The principle of falsification
theory
empiricism
inductiondeduction
„[…], lässt sich eine wissenschaftliche
Hypothese zwar niemals erweisen, wohl
aber, wenn sie falsch ist, widerlegen, und
es fragt sich deshalb, ob nicht Thatsachen
beigebracht werden können, welche mit
einer der beiden Hypothesen in
unauflöslichem Widerspruch stehen und
somit dieselbe zu Fall bringen.“
Weismann 1868

Experience Law? Experiment

Falsifiability – Falsification of a statement
Falsifiable Statement:
„All Swans are white“
''Leda and the Swan'', a 16th century copy
after a lost painting by Michelangelo, 1530
(National Gallery, London)

Falsifiable Statement:
„All Swans are white“
Black Swan (discovered 1790,
Australia)

Not falsifiable statement:
“All prime numbers have exactly two natural numbers as a divider.”

Falsifiability – Observation as the beginning?
Observation:
Number “592”: 592
- 295
= 297
+ 792
= 1089
Observation is problematic only through theory
Theory: Algorithm always leads to "1089" with three-digit number,
at which the first number is bigger than the last digit by at least 2.

Falsifiability – Karl Raimund Popper
Rejection of induction (problem of induction)
Approach of falsifiability (problem of
demarcation)
Founder of critical rationalism:
insights only temporary
testing by several empirical tests
Advance of scientific knowledge
http://www.iep.utm.ed
u
Karl Raimund Popper
(1902 – 1994)
problem (P1)
problem (P2)
tentative theory (TT)
error elimination (EE)
Popper, Miller 1997
approximation to the truth

Karl Raimund Popper - Summary
discover justifiy
falsifiable theory
observation (tentative)
theory
Target: finding the truth (-approximate)

Falsifiability – Boundaries
Falsifiability: observation statements are false
Example: an experimental falsifiability of the theory T by observing B
Study  theory ≠ observation
What is wrong: The theory or the observation?

Falsifiability – Boundaries
Theory: “The Earth rotates!“ (Copernicus)
Observation vs. (at that time) expected result:
Result: theory is falsified  "The earth does not rotate! “ (Claudius Ptolemaeus)
t
earth
earth

Anarchism - „Anything goes“
Epistemological anarchism, Dadaism
Rules on scientific knowledge:
harmful
senseless
“Against Method“
Proliferation principle
Persistence principle
http://de.wikipedia.org
Paul Feyerabend
(1924 – 1994)

Philosophy of Science – What is a theory?
observation:
context:
observation :
context :
observation:
context :
Passage of solid objects by two
columns
pattern with two stripes
Passage of photons by two
columns
pattern with several stripes
Passage of waves by two
columns
pattern with several stripes

Science – What is a “scientific theory”
Highly falsifiable theory ≻ low falsifiable theory
Rejection of falsified theories
Preparation of highly speculative hypotheses: progress through trial and error

Philosophy of Science – What is philosophy of science?
Concept of science:
1. Strict standards of the underlying form of knowledge creation.*
2. Social event for the stabilization of the scientific form of knowledge creation.*
3. Guides us in the search of the truth.*
Aim of science: to gain insights/ progress
* Mittelstraß 2010

Philosophy of Science – What is philosophy of science?
Philosophy of Science as “neueste Form des ewigen Dreinredens der
Philosophie *…+ in das Geschäft der Wissenschaften“?
Mittelstraß 1985
nevertheless
It is a philosophical discipline in which the scientific practices are methodically
elucidated, i.e. investigation of
research form
theory form: structure of theory, dynamics of theory, explication of theories
Mittelstraß 1985

Philosophy of Science – Part 1 - Summary
Empiricism Rationalism
experience ≻ rationality rationality ≻ experience
knowledge from experience knowledge only by rationality
definitions, laws, etc. derived from
individual things (experiences)
definitions, laws, etc.
only by rationality
problem: generalization of experience ≠
reliable knowledge
mission statement: mathematics (logic)

Philosophy of Science – Part 1 - Summary
(classical)
empiricism
(historical)
positivism
logical
positivism
rationalism
critical
rationalism
Descartes (1596 – 1650)
Locke (1632 – 1704)
Berkeley (1685 - 1753)
Hume (1711 - 1776)
Mill (1806 - 1873)
Carnap (1891 – 1970)
Gödel (1906 – 1978)
Reichenbach (1891 – 1953)
Feyerabend (1924 – 1994)
Popper (1902 – 1994)
Comte (1798 – 1857)
epistemological
anarchismtime

References
Chalmers 1999: Chalmers, Alan F.: What is this thing called science?. Hackett Publisching
Company, p. 51.
Chalmers 2001: Chalmers, Alan F.: Wege der Wissenschaft. Springer 2001, p. 40.
Esterbauer 2005: Esterbauer, Reinhold: Grundkurs Metaphysik. http://oeh-fv-theo.uni-
graz.at/_pdf/4652fcf3b98ce.pdf, Abruf am 01.09.2011.
Gethmann 1995: Gethmann, Carl F.: Proliferationsprinzip. In: Mittelstraß, J.:
Enzyklopädie Philosophie und Wissenschaftstheorie Band 3. J. B. Metzler,
Stuttgart/Weimar 1995, pp. 359 - 361.
Heinrich 2005: Heinrich, Lutz J.: Forschungsmethodik einer Integrationsdisziplin: Ein
Beitrag zur Geschichte der Wirtschaftsinformatik. In: NTM Zeitschrift für Geschichte der
Wissenschaften, Technik und Medizin 13 (2005), pp. 104 – 117.
Mittelstraß 1980: Mittelstraß, Jürgen: In: Mittelstraß, J.: Enzyklopädie Philosophie und
Wissenschaftstheorie Band 1. J. B. Metzler, Mannheim/Wien/Zürich 1980, p. 568 – 570.

References
Mittelstraß 1985: Mittelstraß, Jürgen: Die Philosophie der Wissenschaftstheorie – Über
das Verhältnis von Wissenschaftstheorie, Wissenschaftsforschung und
Wissenschaftsethik. In: Zeitschrift für allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie XIX/2 (1988), pp.
308 – 327.
Mittelstraß 2010: Mittelstraß, Jürgen: Kommentar zu Reinhard Mocek: Von der
Universalität der Wissenschaftsgeschichte (1981). In: Zeitschrift für Geschichte der
Wissenschaften, Technik und Medizin 18 (2010), pp. 431 – 436.
Popper, Miller 1979: Popper, Karl Raimund; Miller, David: Lesebuch. 2. Auflage, UTB,
Göttingen 1997, S. 59.
Radnitzky 1979: Radnitzky, Gerard: Erkenntnisfortschritt und Theoriebewertung. Drei
konkurrierende Ansätze in der Wissenschaftstheorie. In: Die Naturwissenschaften 66
(1979), pp. 121 – 129.

References
Thiel 1996: Thiel, Christian: Theorie. In: Mittelstraß, J.: Enzyklopädie Philosophie und
Wissenschaftstheorie Band 4. J. B. Metzler, Stuttgart/Weimar 1996, pp. 260 – 270.
Weismann 1868: Weismann, August: Über die Berechtigung der Darwin‘schen Theorie.
Engelmann, Leipzig 1868, p. 14 f.

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