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Chilean Experience in
Regulation of Roads PPP



          Patricio Mansilla
       Chemonics International
        Lima - August 16, 2008
Agenda

 1.Chilean Institutional Framework

 2. Roads Regulatory Strategy in Chile

 3. Key elements of the Chilean PPP Case

   3.1 Lessons learned
   3.1 Trends in the Road Regulation
1. Chilean Institutional Framework
Chilean Institutional Structure
 Comptroller


                                                                        Health Ministry,
                                                                        Justice Ministry,
               Finance Ministry                                     Civil Aviation Direction,
                                                                      Railroad Company
                                                                      Local Governments

                                  Ministry of Public
                                       Works




                                                         PPP Unit




                                                       Responsible for the complete PPP
                                                                project Cycle
Chilean Institutional Structure
Chilean Institutional Structure
Solicited and Unsolicited Proposals
Chilean Project Cycle
Total Concession Investment
      US$8.000 million
Chilean Infrastructure Investment
Pension Funds (Sept. 2007)
2. Roads Regulatory Strategy in
              Chile
PPP Design
                         Regulatory
                          System

  Economic                                 Private Sector
  Structure                                Participation



                       PPP Design

Institutional System                  Business Design
  and Procedures
Private Sector Participation
                              Reform
                            Health System

Reform to the                                          Reform to the
 Education                                            Pension System


                     Private Sector Participation
                       in the Chilean Economy



Foreign Investment                                  Privatisation
    Promotion
Legal System
                                Regulatory
                                 System




Concession Law No900                               Complementary Law
Ministry of Public Works                             Ammendments

                             Project Finance Law
Long Term Minimum
            Income Guarantee
Revenues

                             CURRENT
                             REVENUES




                          GOV. PAYMENT
                                TO
                          CONCESSION


                      P       Time
Revenue Sharing Mechanism

Revenues

                                Current
                               Revenues

                         IMG


                       50% Gov.
                      50% Conces



                     P     Time (years)
2.1. Panamerican Highway (Road 5)
Panamerican Higwhay 1995-1998
US$ 2,100 million
                              Road 5
   1590 Kms.                                                            Los Andes
                                                      Túnel El Melón
                     La Serena
                                                      Valparaíso

                     Los Vilos                        San Antonio      SANTIAGO
                                      SANTIAGO

                                     Talca
                                  Chillán
                                   Collipulli
                                 Temuco
                                 Río Bueno      Concepción
               Puerto Montt
Business Design

                Business Design

                  N
                         (P  Q + S F + S V ) t - (O & M) t
NPV = - CAPEX +   
                  t =1            (1 + CAPM) t



   Monopoly                                Financial
   Regulation                             Regulation
Tariff System
•   Natural Monopoly. No alternative roads
•   Sequential and Competitive Bidding
•   Transport Modeling to determine tariffs
•   Second best tariffs to reduce deadweight loss
•   Efficient and equity criteria to implement the tariff
    system and affordable for the users.
Business Design
Geographic           Tariffs relatively similar along the
  Equity             highway according to the service level


       Horizontal          Users pay according to his category
        Equity



 Vertical            Local Users or Frequent Users can
  Equity             receive a special payment treatment


      Generational         Users pay for a service level during a
        Equity             specific period of time.
Panamerican Highway
Panamerican Highway

• Risk Sharing Mechanism
• Feasibility Studies prepared by the Chilean
  government and available for the bidders
• Quality of Service: Guarantee by prizes and fines
• International Pre qualification and sequential bidding
• International Road Shows
Cross Subsidy (Million US$/year)
       8,18
                                                            7,02
                                                     5,85
                                      3,51




                                             -2,34


              -7,02
                      -8,18
                              -9,35




                                                                   25
Tariff System (US$/100 kms)
La Serena – Los Vilos

Los Vilos - Santiago

  Santiago - Talca

   Talca - Chillán                                         US$

Complete Self Funded

 Chillán - Collipulli

 Collipulli - Temuco

Temuco - Río Bueno

Río Bueno - Pto Montt




                                                      26
2.2.Urban Roads
Santiago in the Nineties
                             Population: 5 million



Economic Development                                   10,3 Million of trips per day




 135 cars / 1000 persons                               65%: Public Transportation




Rate Growth: 6% annually                               35% : Private Transportation



                           Lack of Public Investment


              Transport System with huge operation problems
Santiago Infrastructure Plan
•   Public Transportation Modernization
•   Enlargement of the Metro System
•   Enlargement of Suburban Trains
•   PPP for the main urban roads
•   Economic regulation for the private transportation
•   Enhancement of the local transportation infrastructure
•   Traffic control system improvement
R-57
Urban PPP Roads

     Urban Road System

1.   Autopista Costanera Norte
                                   R-
2.   Sistema Norte – Sur         R-68
                                   68
3.   Américo Vespucio Sur
4.   Américo Vespucio Norte
     215 Km.
5.   Sistema de Telepeaje
                                 R-
                                 R-78
                                 78



                                          R-5
                                        R-5 Sur
                                          Sur
Santiago Infrastructure Plan
                                   1T
• Three tariffs:
   Valley US$ 0,05/km
   Peak US$ 0,06/km
   Congestion US$0,12/km           2T


• Tariff adjustment RPI +
  3,5% annually.
• Concessionaire can do            3T

  tariff management.
East-West Urban System
• Sequential Bidding Mechanism:
      • Variable 1: “Payment for goods and rights (BD)"

            Payment by the sponsor of the concessionaire before to
            create the concessionaire company.


      • Variable 2: Investment Plan

      • Variable 3: Payment from the Government
Urban Road Concession: East-West
            Urban System
                                               Results

                                               •Investments: US$385 million
                                               •Length: 42 kilometers
                                               •Reduce gas emission
                                               •Reduce contamination
                                               •Reduce congestion
                                               •Reduce travel time from Las
                                               Condes to the Santiago Airport

•Implementation of the electronic toll road system “free flow” which let to the
users go through the road without stop to pay tolls.
•The number of accidents in the road is very low and it reach 8 in average per
month.
Urban Roads Bidding Results
3. Key Elements of the Chilean
           PPP Case
3.1. Lessons Learned
Lessons Learned
• Lesson 1: Competition is an important first step for road
  regulation and prequalification is an important strategy to
  mitigate the adverse selection (concessionaire) problem.
• Lesson 2: Competition is not able to solve the incomplete
  contract problems. Every risk must be carefully studied.
  Technical studies to estimate the official investment cost of
  the PPP project.
• Lesson 3: Low balling and Winner's Curse
Lessons Learned
• Lesson 4: Regulation strategy must be included in early
  stages of the project cycle. Economic variables to define
  the bidding winner.
• Lesson 5: Transport and financial Models, must be
  considered in the Regulatory studies to have a consistent
  PPP model.
• Lesson 6: Incomplete contracts must include in a easy
  way the potential conflict resolution issues like easy buy
  out or way out, negotiation mechanisms, new investments
  treatment.
3.2. Trends in Road Regulation
Trends in Road Regulation
• Trend 1: Vertical Integration of Regulation versus
  Independent Regulator
• Trend 2: Application of Least Present Value of Revenues
• Trend 3: Unsolicited Proposals
• Trend 4: Intermodal Competition (Minimum Revenue
  Guarantee)
• Trend 5: Total Integration of the Transport Model-
  Financial Model and Regulatory Model (secuential or
  simultaneous)
Thank you!!


          Chemonics del Peru
              51-1-2422011
patricio.mansilla@chemonicsdelperu.com
          www.chemonics.com

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Patricio Mansilla - Chilean Experience in Economic Regulation of Roads PPP

  • 1. Chilean Experience in Regulation of Roads PPP Patricio Mansilla Chemonics International Lima - August 16, 2008
  • 2. Agenda 1.Chilean Institutional Framework 2. Roads Regulatory Strategy in Chile 3. Key elements of the Chilean PPP Case 3.1 Lessons learned 3.1 Trends in the Road Regulation
  • 4. Chilean Institutional Structure Comptroller Health Ministry, Justice Ministry, Finance Ministry Civil Aviation Direction, Railroad Company Local Governments Ministry of Public Works PPP Unit Responsible for the complete PPP project Cycle
  • 9. Total Concession Investment US$8.000 million
  • 12. 2. Roads Regulatory Strategy in Chile
  • 13. PPP Design Regulatory System Economic Private Sector Structure Participation PPP Design Institutional System Business Design and Procedures
  • 14. Private Sector Participation Reform Health System Reform to the Reform to the Education Pension System Private Sector Participation in the Chilean Economy Foreign Investment Privatisation Promotion
  • 15. Legal System Regulatory System Concession Law No900 Complementary Law Ministry of Public Works Ammendments Project Finance Law
  • 16. Long Term Minimum Income Guarantee Revenues CURRENT REVENUES GOV. PAYMENT TO CONCESSION P Time
  • 17. Revenue Sharing Mechanism Revenues Current Revenues IMG 50% Gov. 50% Conces P Time (years)
  • 19. Panamerican Higwhay 1995-1998 US$ 2,100 million Road 5 1590 Kms. Los Andes Túnel El Melón La Serena Valparaíso Los Vilos San Antonio SANTIAGO SANTIAGO Talca Chillán Collipulli Temuco Río Bueno Concepción Puerto Montt
  • 20. Business Design Business Design N (P  Q + S F + S V ) t - (O & M) t NPV = - CAPEX +  t =1 (1 + CAPM) t Monopoly Financial Regulation Regulation
  • 21. Tariff System • Natural Monopoly. No alternative roads • Sequential and Competitive Bidding • Transport Modeling to determine tariffs • Second best tariffs to reduce deadweight loss • Efficient and equity criteria to implement the tariff system and affordable for the users.
  • 22. Business Design Geographic Tariffs relatively similar along the Equity highway according to the service level Horizontal Users pay according to his category Equity Vertical Local Users or Frequent Users can Equity receive a special payment treatment Generational Users pay for a service level during a Equity specific period of time.
  • 24. Panamerican Highway • Risk Sharing Mechanism • Feasibility Studies prepared by the Chilean government and available for the bidders • Quality of Service: Guarantee by prizes and fines • International Pre qualification and sequential bidding • International Road Shows
  • 25. Cross Subsidy (Million US$/year) 8,18 7,02 5,85 3,51 -2,34 -7,02 -8,18 -9,35 25
  • 26. Tariff System (US$/100 kms) La Serena – Los Vilos Los Vilos - Santiago Santiago - Talca Talca - Chillán US$ Complete Self Funded Chillán - Collipulli Collipulli - Temuco Temuco - Río Bueno Río Bueno - Pto Montt 26
  • 28. Santiago in the Nineties Population: 5 million Economic Development 10,3 Million of trips per day 135 cars / 1000 persons 65%: Public Transportation Rate Growth: 6% annually 35% : Private Transportation Lack of Public Investment Transport System with huge operation problems
  • 29. Santiago Infrastructure Plan • Public Transportation Modernization • Enlargement of the Metro System • Enlargement of Suburban Trains • PPP for the main urban roads • Economic regulation for the private transportation • Enhancement of the local transportation infrastructure • Traffic control system improvement
  • 30. R-57 Urban PPP Roads Urban Road System 1. Autopista Costanera Norte R- 2. Sistema Norte – Sur R-68 68 3. Américo Vespucio Sur 4. Américo Vespucio Norte 215 Km. 5. Sistema de Telepeaje R- R-78 78 R-5 R-5 Sur Sur
  • 31. Santiago Infrastructure Plan 1T • Three tariffs: Valley US$ 0,05/km Peak US$ 0,06/km Congestion US$0,12/km 2T • Tariff adjustment RPI + 3,5% annually. • Concessionaire can do 3T tariff management.
  • 32. East-West Urban System • Sequential Bidding Mechanism: • Variable 1: “Payment for goods and rights (BD)" Payment by the sponsor of the concessionaire before to create the concessionaire company. • Variable 2: Investment Plan • Variable 3: Payment from the Government
  • 33. Urban Road Concession: East-West Urban System Results •Investments: US$385 million •Length: 42 kilometers •Reduce gas emission •Reduce contamination •Reduce congestion •Reduce travel time from Las Condes to the Santiago Airport •Implementation of the electronic toll road system “free flow” which let to the users go through the road without stop to pay tolls. •The number of accidents in the road is very low and it reach 8 in average per month.
  • 35. 3. Key Elements of the Chilean PPP Case
  • 37. Lessons Learned • Lesson 1: Competition is an important first step for road regulation and prequalification is an important strategy to mitigate the adverse selection (concessionaire) problem. • Lesson 2: Competition is not able to solve the incomplete contract problems. Every risk must be carefully studied. Technical studies to estimate the official investment cost of the PPP project. • Lesson 3: Low balling and Winner's Curse
  • 38. Lessons Learned • Lesson 4: Regulation strategy must be included in early stages of the project cycle. Economic variables to define the bidding winner. • Lesson 5: Transport and financial Models, must be considered in the Regulatory studies to have a consistent PPP model. • Lesson 6: Incomplete contracts must include in a easy way the potential conflict resolution issues like easy buy out or way out, negotiation mechanisms, new investments treatment.
  • 39. 3.2. Trends in Road Regulation
  • 40. Trends in Road Regulation • Trend 1: Vertical Integration of Regulation versus Independent Regulator • Trend 2: Application of Least Present Value of Revenues • Trend 3: Unsolicited Proposals • Trend 4: Intermodal Competition (Minimum Revenue Guarantee) • Trend 5: Total Integration of the Transport Model- Financial Model and Regulatory Model (secuential or simultaneous)
  • 41. Thank you!! Chemonics del Peru 51-1-2422011 patricio.mansilla@chemonicsdelperu.com www.chemonics.com