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Pangeo climpred presentation
1. Riley X. Brady (University of Colorado Boulder) & Aaron Spring (MPI)
http://climpred.readthedocs.io/
riley.brady@colorado.edu rileyxbrady
2. Decadal climate prediction lies at the intersection of an initial conditions problem and an
external forcing/boundary condition problem.
IPCC AR5 Chapter 11
3. Earth System Model (ESM) predictions use the same principles as numerical weather prediction:
initialize an ESM with a reanalysis or model solution, and then integrate it forward.
IPCC AR5 Chapter 11
5. This experimental configuration leads to high-dimensional output, but we can anticipate a few
in particular.
~200 billion data points for 3D ocean output.
>1TB at single precision for one variable
6. This experimental configuration leads to high-dimensional output, but we can anticipate a few
in particular.
anticipate dimension names: handle large datasets:
7.
8.
9. Future Direction
• Support for sub-annual predictions (subseasonal to decadal)
• xarray accessors
• Advanced predictability analysis
10. Give climpred a try!
• Plenty of tutorial/sample data to work with
• Looking for users, fresh ideas, contributions
http://climpred.readthedocs.io/
riley.brady@colorado.edu rileyxbrady
Editor's Notes
Mention initialization vs. external forcing and how we need to get both right.
Mention that this is “hindcast” prediction. “Perfect model prediction” initializes off a control run to keep the prediction study self-contained and purely theoretical.
We also are dependent on external forcing. You see the increase in SST.
