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“Our	
  culture	
  encodes	
  a	
  strong	
  bias	
  either	
  to	
  neglect	
  or	
  
ignore	
  VARIATION.	
  	
  We	
  tend	
  to	
  focus	
  instead	
  on	
  
measures	
  of	
  central	
  tendency,	
  and	
  as	
  a	
  result	
  we	
  make	
  
some	
  terrible	
  mistakes,	
  o:en	
  with	
  considerable	
  
prac<cal	
  import[ance].”
                                  	
  	
  -­‐Stephen	
  Jay	
  Gould,	
  naturalist,	
  1941-­‐2002
ANALYTICS:
The New Plastics
Andrew	
  Pulvermacher	
  CMA,	
  CPIM,	
  MBA
Best	
  Buy
Cafe R!k

Appetizers
   Andrew Pulvermacher
   Story of Risk Management


Main Course

   Best Buy

   Risk Management at Best Buy

   Change MGMT
No Introduction Required
Introduction Required
Analy5cs   Gameriza5on   Execu5ve	
  Decision	
  So?ware
2004
Built Business Intelligence system that simulated customer
behavior and automated inventory management.
Changed company pricing methodologies. Improved
NOP Rates by 600bps in less than 8 weeks!
Designecd Crop Insurance Models to estimate crop yields
and pricing by county; reducing risk of insurance
selections based on ‘averages’
Rebuilt Best Buy’s credit card portfolio through Analytics by
focusing on consumer purchasing patters (and
influencers).
Turn Risk into Cash
$50
Billion
Why	
  should	
  I	
  care	
  about	
  Banks,	
  Credit	
  Cards,	
  and	
  the	
  Fed?
"e Ame#can Payment Indu$ry
The PAYMENT INDUSTRY



YESTERDAY      TODAY   TOMORROW
(when	
  Pea	
  Green	
  was	
  cool…)
Back in the
Day (when	
  Pea	
  Green	
  was	
  cool…)
Back in the
                 Day
To access your funds for
                             (when	
  Pea	
  Green	
  was	
  cool…)



payment, your Cards/Checks
were processed manually
Back in the
                  Day
To access your funds for
                              (when	
  Pea	
  Green	
  was	
  cool…)



payment, your Cards/Checks
were processed manually


This led to an inordinate amount of waste as manual
handling was involved which led to DAYS for funds to
be processed and also led to fraudulent transactions
Back in the
                   Day          (when	
  Pea	
  Green	
  was	
  cool…)


Interchange was introduced to protect banks from fraud risk
 associated with a paper-based credit card system. 80% of
 the cost covered Fraud.




Interchange was a ‘per-
 transaction’ fee the merchant paid
 based on the method of consumer
 payment
Today…
Today…
 Manual processing is replaced with
 electronic funds transfers via Point-
 of-Sale terminals.

 Funds no longer take DAYS to clear,
 but SECONDS

 Fraud is nearly eliminated
So… what about the cost
             VISA and MasterCard OWN the
             Networks that process over 85% of all
             Credit Card Transactions
When you
swipe your
card…



                The Transaction is
                 processed over a
                    ‘Network’
To capture market share, Card Brands funnel
    Interchange fees back to issuing banks.


              1971                                        2011



*Propor<on	
  of	
  Interchange	
  Fee	
  going	
  to….
Unless	
  you	
  ascribe	
  to	
  Soviet	
  Economics,	
  
CAPITALISM	
  thrives	
  on	
  COMPETITION

2  	
  of	
  the	
  largest	
  Card	
  
                                            Visa/MasterCard’s	
  major	
  clients	
  are	
  
                                            big	
  banks.	
  	
  
Brands
VISA        MasterCard                            5	
  of	
  the	
  largest	
  banks	
  control…
                                          Bank of America                       Capital One
  Control	
  


  80%
                                          CHASE         Citi             HSBC


                                                                               90%
       Revenue
  of	
  
                                                                                    Revenue
                                                                               of	
  
Economics of the
Transactions
The Merchant establishes the
business relationship with
YOU.
You CHOOSE to buy from
the Merchant based on factors
such as service and price.

What value do you place on the
Banker being involved with the
transaction…
The CARD BRAND

  The BANKER




               $10




The MERCHANT   The CUSTOMER
ISSUE ONLY   “And	
  I’ll	
  give	
  x%	
  of	
  the	
  
                MY CARD     Transac<on	
  Fee”


                                                                          The CARD BRAND

  The BANKER




                                                           $10




The MERCHANT                                                   The CUSTOMER
ISSUE ONLY   “And	
  I’ll	
  give	
  x%	
  of	
  the	
  
                        MY CARD     Transac<on	
  Fee”


                                                                                  The CARD BRAND

  The BANKER




               You can only
                 have this
                Brand Card                                         $10




The MERCHANT                                                           The CUSTOMER
ISSUE ONLY    “And	
  I’ll	
  give	
  x%	
  of	
  the	
  
                        MY CARD      Transac<on	
  Fee”


                                                                                   The CARD BRAND

  The BANKER




               You can only
                 have this
                Brand Card                                          $10


                                           $1000
                                    “OMG! I love this!”


The MERCHANT                                                            The CUSTOMER
ISSUE ONLY
                        MY CARD


                                    $38
                                                                The CARD BRAND
                                                           $2
  The BANKER


                                       $40

               You can only
                 have this
                Brand Card                                $10


                        $960             $1000
                                    “OMG! I love this!”


The MERCHANT                                              The CUSTOMER
ISSUE ONLY
                        MY CARD


                                    $38
                                                                  The CARD BRAND
                                                           $2
  The BANKER

                                                    Would you pay $40 to have the
                                       $40          ability to use a major card brand?


               You can only
                 have this
                Brand Card                                $10


                        $960             $1000
                                    “OMG! I love this!”


The MERCHANT                                              The CUSTOMER
ISSUE ONLY
                        MY CARD


                                    $38
                                                                    The CARD BRAND
                                                            $2
  The BANKER

                                                    Would you pay $40 to have the
                                       $40          ability to use a major card brand?
                                                         (why	
  should	
  a	
  merchant?)

               You can only
                 have this
                Brand Card                                $10


                        $960             $1000
                                    “OMG! I love this!”


The MERCHANT                                              The CUSTOMER
$50
billion
$50      $1.75
billion   billion
PROBABILITY
MANAGEMENT
Region
                                  FICO




                   Frequency




                               Customers

                                                       Shopping
                                                        Seasons

           Products

Price

                                           Store	
             Employees


          Demand
                                         Experience
 Margin

                                                          Systems
4 Key Insights to Change Management
1. Cash

    2. Customer Behavior (Transactions)

            3. Customer Experience

                          4. Operations

                                          31
$1.75billion
               32
ASP: $375
ASP: $375
ASP: $375
ASP: $375
Increase	
  Throughput




                -­‐Cardholders
                -­‐Card	
  Usage


 Loyalty            SG&A                        Opera5ons
Frequency      Interchange	
  Exp             Applica<ons
Spend
Profitability
Palisade Conference
Palisade Conference

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Palisade Conference

  • 1. “Our  culture  encodes  a  strong  bias  either  to  neglect  or   ignore  VARIATION.    We  tend  to  focus  instead  on   measures  of  central  tendency,  and  as  a  result  we  make   some  terrible  mistakes,  o:en  with  considerable   prac<cal  import[ance].”    -­‐Stephen  Jay  Gould,  naturalist,  1941-­‐2002
  • 2. ANALYTICS: The New Plastics Andrew  Pulvermacher  CMA,  CPIM,  MBA Best  Buy
  • 3. Cafe R!k Appetizers Andrew Pulvermacher Story of Risk Management Main Course Best Buy Risk Management at Best Buy Change MGMT
  • 6. Analy5cs Gameriza5on Execu5ve  Decision  So?ware
  • 8. Built Business Intelligence system that simulated customer behavior and automated inventory management. Changed company pricing methodologies. Improved NOP Rates by 600bps in less than 8 weeks!
  • 9. Designecd Crop Insurance Models to estimate crop yields and pricing by county; reducing risk of insurance selections based on ‘averages’
  • 10. Rebuilt Best Buy’s credit card portfolio through Analytics by focusing on consumer purchasing patters (and influencers).
  • 12.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. Why  should  I  care  about  Banks,  Credit  Cards,  and  the  Fed?
  • 19. (when  Pea  Green  was  cool…)
  • 20. Back in the Day (when  Pea  Green  was  cool…)
  • 21. Back in the Day To access your funds for (when  Pea  Green  was  cool…) payment, your Cards/Checks were processed manually
  • 22. Back in the Day To access your funds for (when  Pea  Green  was  cool…) payment, your Cards/Checks were processed manually This led to an inordinate amount of waste as manual handling was involved which led to DAYS for funds to be processed and also led to fraudulent transactions
  • 23. Back in the Day (when  Pea  Green  was  cool…) Interchange was introduced to protect banks from fraud risk associated with a paper-based credit card system. 80% of the cost covered Fraud. Interchange was a ‘per- transaction’ fee the merchant paid based on the method of consumer payment
  • 25. Today… Manual processing is replaced with electronic funds transfers via Point- of-Sale terminals. Funds no longer take DAYS to clear, but SECONDS Fraud is nearly eliminated
  • 26. So… what about the cost VISA and MasterCard OWN the Networks that process over 85% of all Credit Card Transactions When you swipe your card… The Transaction is processed over a ‘Network’
  • 27. To capture market share, Card Brands funnel Interchange fees back to issuing banks. 1971 2011 *Propor<on  of  Interchange  Fee  going  to….
  • 28. Unless  you  ascribe  to  Soviet  Economics,   CAPITALISM  thrives  on  COMPETITION 2  of  the  largest  Card   Visa/MasterCard’s  major  clients  are   big  banks.     Brands VISA MasterCard 5  of  the  largest  banks  control… Bank of America Capital One Control   80% CHASE Citi HSBC 90% Revenue of   Revenue of  
  • 29. Economics of the Transactions The Merchant establishes the business relationship with YOU. You CHOOSE to buy from the Merchant based on factors such as service and price. What value do you place on the Banker being involved with the transaction…
  • 30. The CARD BRAND The BANKER $10 The MERCHANT The CUSTOMER
  • 31. ISSUE ONLY “And  I’ll  give  x%  of  the   MY CARD Transac<on  Fee” The CARD BRAND The BANKER $10 The MERCHANT The CUSTOMER
  • 32. ISSUE ONLY “And  I’ll  give  x%  of  the   MY CARD Transac<on  Fee” The CARD BRAND The BANKER You can only have this Brand Card $10 The MERCHANT The CUSTOMER
  • 33. ISSUE ONLY “And  I’ll  give  x%  of  the   MY CARD Transac<on  Fee” The CARD BRAND The BANKER You can only have this Brand Card $10 $1000 “OMG! I love this!” The MERCHANT The CUSTOMER
  • 34. ISSUE ONLY MY CARD $38 The CARD BRAND $2 The BANKER $40 You can only have this Brand Card $10 $960 $1000 “OMG! I love this!” The MERCHANT The CUSTOMER
  • 35. ISSUE ONLY MY CARD $38 The CARD BRAND $2 The BANKER Would you pay $40 to have the $40 ability to use a major card brand? You can only have this Brand Card $10 $960 $1000 “OMG! I love this!” The MERCHANT The CUSTOMER
  • 36. ISSUE ONLY MY CARD $38 The CARD BRAND $2 The BANKER Would you pay $40 to have the $40 ability to use a major card brand? (why  should  a  merchant?) You can only have this Brand Card $10 $960 $1000 “OMG! I love this!” The MERCHANT The CUSTOMER
  • 37.
  • 39. $50 $1.75 billion billion
  • 40.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44. Region FICO Frequency Customers Shopping Seasons Products Price Store   Employees Demand Experience Margin Systems
  • 45. 4 Key Insights to Change Management 1. Cash 2. Customer Behavior (Transactions) 3. Customer Experience 4. Operations 31
  • 51. Increase  Throughput -­‐Cardholders -­‐Card  Usage Loyalty SG&A Opera5ons Frequency Interchange  Exp Applica<ons Spend Profitability