This document discusses how the US may face a labor shortage in the coming years as the baby boom generation reaches retirement age. While population growth is projected to be highest among those aged 55 and older, immigration and longevity may not provide enough new workers to fill an expected 14.6 million new jobs between 2008-2018. The social sector, including healthcare, education, non-profits, and government, is projected to see significant job growth and may provide opportunities for encore careers for older workers looking to stay active in the workforce beyond traditional retirement age. Encouraging longer work among older age groups could help address the potential labor shortage.
Whose Welfare State Now? - Adrian SinfieldOxfam GB
Professor Adrian Sinfield, Emeritus Professor of Social Policy at the University of Edinburgh, talks about the welfare state.
Stephen Boyd, Assistant Secretary of the Scottish Trade Unions Congress, talks about how the Scottish economy works.
The Whose Economy? seminars, organised by Oxfam Scotland and the University of the West of Scotland, brought together experts to look at recent changes in the Scottish economy and their impact on Scotland's most vulnerable communities.
Held over winter and spring 2010-11 in Edinburgh, Inverness, Glasgow and Stirling, the series posed the question of what economy is being created in Scotland and, specifically, for whom?
To find out more and view other Whose Economy? papers, presentations and videos visit:
http://www.oxfamblogs.org/ukpovertypost/whose-economy-seminar-series-winter-2010-spring-2011/
Gayle Allard (Vice Rector of Research at IE Business School), brought to us an analysis of the causes behind the actual European crisis, drawing the attention to the enormous challenges ahead. Referring to the different factors that contribute to the satisfaction of women, Gayle Allard shared with the audience a research survey illustrating the lack of correlation between wealth increase (GDP) and happiness in general, inviting all the presents to reflect on the way society should be heading to.
Factors affecting employment during crisis in private businesses in Kurdistan IJAEMSJORNAL
The main aim of this study is to investigate the critical factors that effecting employment during crisis in private businesses in Kurdistan. An empirical quantitative technique utilized to analyze the present research. The researcher applied a random sampling method, where all respondents had equal chances of being selected for the sample. The research was carried out at 18 private businesses in Erbil. The population of this research was approximately 341 employees, accordingly to cover the entire research population; 100 surveys were distributed but 84 forms were collected that were accomplished accurately. The results showed that the highest value was for economic factor this means that economic is strongly related to employment and has strong influence on employment during crisis in private businesses in Kurdistan.
Whose Welfare State Now? - Adrian SinfieldOxfam GB
Professor Adrian Sinfield, Emeritus Professor of Social Policy at the University of Edinburgh, talks about the welfare state.
Stephen Boyd, Assistant Secretary of the Scottish Trade Unions Congress, talks about how the Scottish economy works.
The Whose Economy? seminars, organised by Oxfam Scotland and the University of the West of Scotland, brought together experts to look at recent changes in the Scottish economy and their impact on Scotland's most vulnerable communities.
Held over winter and spring 2010-11 in Edinburgh, Inverness, Glasgow and Stirling, the series posed the question of what economy is being created in Scotland and, specifically, for whom?
To find out more and view other Whose Economy? papers, presentations and videos visit:
http://www.oxfamblogs.org/ukpovertypost/whose-economy-seminar-series-winter-2010-spring-2011/
Gayle Allard (Vice Rector of Research at IE Business School), brought to us an analysis of the causes behind the actual European crisis, drawing the attention to the enormous challenges ahead. Referring to the different factors that contribute to the satisfaction of women, Gayle Allard shared with the audience a research survey illustrating the lack of correlation between wealth increase (GDP) and happiness in general, inviting all the presents to reflect on the way society should be heading to.
Factors affecting employment during crisis in private businesses in Kurdistan IJAEMSJORNAL
The main aim of this study is to investigate the critical factors that effecting employment during crisis in private businesses in Kurdistan. An empirical quantitative technique utilized to analyze the present research. The researcher applied a random sampling method, where all respondents had equal chances of being selected for the sample. The research was carried out at 18 private businesses in Erbil. The population of this research was approximately 341 employees, accordingly to cover the entire research population; 100 surveys were distributed but 84 forms were collected that were accomplished accurately. The results showed that the highest value was for economic factor this means that economic is strongly related to employment and has strong influence on employment during crisis in private businesses in Kurdistan.
Managing Employee Moonlighting in the Future of Work and Era of the gig EconomyOlayiwola Oladapo
Across the Globe the phenomenon of moonlighting is on the rise. Though an ancient practice, the emergence of the gig economy has brought moonlighting to the front burner of global development discourse. Moonlighting is known by different labels like Side Hustle, Private Practice, Side-gig, Side-hustle etc.But regardless of what name it is called it speaks to people doing more than one job for different reasons. In other words, they freelance on a secondary job, in addition to their primary job. In the US, the freelance workforce grew from 53 million in 2014 to 55 million in 2016 and represented 35% of the U.S. workforce. The freelance workforce earned an estimated $1 trillion in that year. The freelance or gig economy is a booming one across the globe though many nation states are actively not tracking data around it. There is therefore an urgent need for an understanding of the emerging moonlighting dynamics and deliberately articulated framework for dealing with moonlighting in the future of work. This piece attempts at triggering the conversation around it to guide all key stakeholders in building management proficiency in dealing with it as an inevitable feature of the Future of Work, the Workplace and the Workforce.
The best data we have on the
upper tail of the income distribution come from Piketty and Saez’s (2003, with
updates) tabulations of individual tax returns. (Even these numbers, though, are
subject to some controversy: the tax code changes over time, altering the incentives
to receive and report compensation in alternative forms.) According to their
numbers, the share of income, excluding capital gains, earned by the top 1 percent
rose from 7.7 percent in 1973 to 17.4 percent in 2010. Even more striking is the
share earned by the top 0.01 percent—an elite group that, in 2010, had a membership
requirement of annual income exceeding $5.9 million. This group’s share of
total income rose from 0.5 percent in 1973 to 3.3 percent in 2010. These numbers
are not easily ignored. Indeed, they in no small part motivated the Occupy movement,
and they have led to calls from policymakers on the left to make the tax code
more progressive.
Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...AJSSMTJournal
Moonlighting, a latent but real phenomenon in the Nigerian economic experience is being
considered alongside irregular workers’ monthly salary in Nigeria which has been on since 2015. Moonlighting
- keeping several jobs simultaneously under different employers as an employee, is more real in the western
world due to increasing legal control. In general, it is referred to as ‘hustling’, ‘multiple runs’, extra pursuits, or
‘PiPis’ in several contexts. Data was collected from 323 respondents from 4 Local Government Area
secretariats in Ekiti state through multistage sampling procedure. Statistics indicate a significant relationship [r
(323) = 0.47, p < .05] between workers’ irregular monthly salaries and the practice of moonlighting among
these public servants in Ekiti state. The affinity between irregular monthly salary and moonlighting has
significantly impacted job commitment deficit [r (323) = 0.47, p < .05]. Employees who experience high
irregularities in their salary tend to engage more in moonlighting (Mean=17.71; Std.Dev=4.96), than those who
have little experience of salary irregularities (Mean=15.77; Std.Dev=4.01). Employees who engage more in
moonlighting tend to be less committed (Mean=19.64; SD=3.77), in comparison with those who are less
engaged in moonlighting (Mean=20.30; Std.Dev=3.56). The study has shown that moonlighting has continued
as a habit and a strategy for mitigating the negative impact of irregular payment of workers’ salary among LG
employees. Increasing focus of labour law in that direction might be necessary to prevent its negative impact
on workers’ commitment and productivity in Ekiti State
Ons rapport identificeert een vijfstappenplan om wereldwijde groei van vacatures te stimuleren.
http://haysoxfordeconomics.clikpages.co.uk/globalreport2011/
Managing Employee Moonlighting in the Future of Work and Era of the gig EconomyOlayiwola Oladapo
Across the Globe the phenomenon of moonlighting is on the rise. Though an ancient practice, the emergence of the gig economy has brought moonlighting to the front burner of global development discourse. Moonlighting is known by different labels like Side Hustle, Private Practice, Side-gig, Side-hustle etc.But regardless of what name it is called it speaks to people doing more than one job for different reasons. In other words, they freelance on a secondary job, in addition to their primary job. In the US, the freelance workforce grew from 53 million in 2014 to 55 million in 2016 and represented 35% of the U.S. workforce. The freelance workforce earned an estimated $1 trillion in that year. The freelance or gig economy is a booming one across the globe though many nation states are actively not tracking data around it. There is therefore an urgent need for an understanding of the emerging moonlighting dynamics and deliberately articulated framework for dealing with moonlighting in the future of work. This piece attempts at triggering the conversation around it to guide all key stakeholders in building management proficiency in dealing with it as an inevitable feature of the Future of Work, the Workplace and the Workforce.
The best data we have on the
upper tail of the income distribution come from Piketty and Saez’s (2003, with
updates) tabulations of individual tax returns. (Even these numbers, though, are
subject to some controversy: the tax code changes over time, altering the incentives
to receive and report compensation in alternative forms.) According to their
numbers, the share of income, excluding capital gains, earned by the top 1 percent
rose from 7.7 percent in 1973 to 17.4 percent in 2010. Even more striking is the
share earned by the top 0.01 percent—an elite group that, in 2010, had a membership
requirement of annual income exceeding $5.9 million. This group’s share of
total income rose from 0.5 percent in 1973 to 3.3 percent in 2010. These numbers
are not easily ignored. Indeed, they in no small part motivated the Occupy movement,
and they have led to calls from policymakers on the left to make the tax code
more progressive.
Moonlighting as ‘Coping Strategy’ for Irregular Payment of Salaries in Nigeri...AJSSMTJournal
Moonlighting, a latent but real phenomenon in the Nigerian economic experience is being
considered alongside irregular workers’ monthly salary in Nigeria which has been on since 2015. Moonlighting
- keeping several jobs simultaneously under different employers as an employee, is more real in the western
world due to increasing legal control. In general, it is referred to as ‘hustling’, ‘multiple runs’, extra pursuits, or
‘PiPis’ in several contexts. Data was collected from 323 respondents from 4 Local Government Area
secretariats in Ekiti state through multistage sampling procedure. Statistics indicate a significant relationship [r
(323) = 0.47, p < .05] between workers’ irregular monthly salaries and the practice of moonlighting among
these public servants in Ekiti state. The affinity between irregular monthly salary and moonlighting has
significantly impacted job commitment deficit [r (323) = 0.47, p < .05]. Employees who experience high
irregularities in their salary tend to engage more in moonlighting (Mean=17.71; Std.Dev=4.96), than those who
have little experience of salary irregularities (Mean=15.77; Std.Dev=4.01). Employees who engage more in
moonlighting tend to be less committed (Mean=19.64; SD=3.77), in comparison with those who are less
engaged in moonlighting (Mean=20.30; Std.Dev=3.56). The study has shown that moonlighting has continued
as a habit and a strategy for mitigating the negative impact of irregular payment of workers’ salary among LG
employees. Increasing focus of labour law in that direction might be necessary to prevent its negative impact
on workers’ commitment and productivity in Ekiti State
Ons rapport identificeert een vijfstappenplan om wereldwijde groei van vacatures te stimuleren.
http://haysoxfordeconomics.clikpages.co.uk/globalreport2011/
Keeping the Workforce – An acute workforce shortage stares us in the faceInfosys
A comparison of the workplace expectations of baby boomers and millennials reveals some interesting findings. While mature workers seek an income (or nest egg) to live on and want to make productive use of their time, for the young workforce, a job is all about career and skill development, and exposure to cutting edge technology. But they also have several things in common, such as a desire to contribute to society through work; a preference for flexible work arrangements and an appreciation of the social connections formed at the workplace. Generation X, on the other hand, is more concerned about the corporate ladder and compensation. How to encourage older workers? Convince them that they can still contribute. Managing the aging workforce is only part of the story. To ensure access to world-class talent and turn their human resources into a competitive advantage, organizations need to configure their workplaces to meet the future needs of their people.
Many Older Workers are on the Verge of RetirementAdam_Forsyth
There’s no doubt the number of retirees in the United States is going up. For one, the baby boomers or those who are from 52 to 70 years old now make up more than 73 million of the population. Members of Generation X, meanwhile, who were born from 1965 to 1981, are about 55 million. Within 10 to 15 years, they will also be on the verge of retirement.
Debt, Deficits, and Demographics: Why We Can Afford the Social ContractJesse Budlong
The emphasis on budget deficits in national policy debates over the last three decades has badly distorted national priorities. There has been an enormous amount of fundamentally confused thinking on budget deficits that has made its way into mainstream political debates. This paper shows that the potential harm from budget deficits has been seriously misrepresented and it is implausible that future generations of workers will see a decline in living standards due to the effects of an aging population. It also shows that the long-term deficit horror stories that appear frequently in public discussions are driven almost entirely by projections of exploding health care costs.
This report was originally published by the New America Foundation.
The future of work ( my takeaways from the e dx course )Felix Bolivar
The idea that “machines are coming to take our jobs” has been a concern for hundreds of years—at least since the industrialization of weaving in the early 18th Century, a technological leap that both raised productivity and fears that thousands of workers would be thrown out on the streets. Innovations and technological progress have caused disruption, but they have created more prosperity than they have destroyed. Yet today, we are riding a new wave of uncertainty as the pace of innovation continues to accelerate and technology affects every part of our lives.
Plugging the gap: Estimating the demand and supply of jobs by sector in 2030ILC- UK
Rough estimates suggest a further 2.7m jobs will be created in the UK by 2030. However, at the same time, the UK workforce is ageing rapidly, resulting in fewer people of working age to support an ageing economy.
This presentation explores whether there will be enough workers to fill these positions. According to our research, the UK economy could see a shortfall of 2.6 million workers by 2030 - almost twice the workforce of the NHS.
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Plugging the gap: Estimating the demand and supply of jobs by sector in 2030ILC- UK
The UK economy could see a shortfall of 2.6 million workers by 2030 – almost twice the workforce of the NHS – as a result of population ageing, the COVID pandemic and Brexit.
These shortfalls will affect the whole economy, with manufacturing, retail, construction, transport, health and social care among the sectors projected to be hardest hit.
To plug these gaps, Government must introduce a comprehensive Workforce Strategy looking at:
How to support people to stay in the workforce for longer, e.g. by supporting healthy workplaces, supporting carers and creating flexible conditions that suit people’s needs.
How to ameliorate childcare costs and reintegrate people into the workforce following timeout for caring or a health need
The role of migration and automation in addressing major workforce gaps
1. iStockphoto
Encore Careers
One Solution to the Coming Labor Shortage
ith nearly 10 percent of the American labor force unemployed
as of this writing and another 7 percent so discouraged by their
prospects that they either have dropped out of the workforce or have
settled for part-time jobs, the most urgent economic challenge is how
to generate enough jobs to put America back to work.1
So it may come as a surprise that within less than a decade, the United States may
face the opposite problem—not enough workers to fill expected job openings.
by Barry Bluestone and Mark Melnik
20 Spring 2011
2. That is likely to occur as the Social-Sector Job Growth for Some Encore Careers
baby-boom generation reach-
es traditional retirement age. 2008-2018 (in thousands)
U.S. Census-projected popula-
tion growth between 2008 and
2018 suggests that the nation will Net, Less
undergo a dramatic shift. The vast Physically
majority of population growth Total Total Net Job Demanding,
is projected to take place in the Employment Employment Growth Job Growth
55 and older age group, one that 2008 2018 2008-2018 2008-2018
historically has had labor force Wage and Salary Employment
participation rates well below Health care and social assistance 15,819 19,816 3,997 3,510
those of younger workers. If the
Educational services 3,037 3,842 806 750
shift in the age distribution to
older Americans results in a sub- Nonprofits 2,973 3,353 379 319
stantial reduction in overall labor Performing arts 118 127 9 24
force participation—the propor-
Museums 132 161 29 22
tion of an age cohort working or
looking for work—long-term eco- Libraries 30 35 5 4
nomic output could suffer.
The numbers are startling.
Total private social sector 22,109 27,333 5,224 4,629
Between 2008 and 2018, the total
U.S. population age 18 and over is
expected to increase by 21.8 mil- Federal government 2,764 2,859 95 75
lion as a result of immigration State government 5,178 5,624 446 399
and greater longevity. But of this
total, only 900,000 will be under Local government 14,557 15,703 1,146 831
age 55 because a baby bust fol-
lowed the baby-boom generation; Total government 22,499 24,186 1,687 1,305
20.9 million will be over 55. (See
“Estimated Population by Age
Cohort,” p. 22.) Total social sector 44,608 51,519 6,911 5,934
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dukakis Center/BRA Labor Market Assessment Tool.
A Changing
Labor Picture
Research based on U.S. Bureau shortage. Using BLS estimates of future Social-Sector Jobs
of Labor Statistics (BLS) data suggests labor-force participation rates, there could The social sector is projected to be an
that a return to healthy economic growth still be 3.3 million to 4.0 million unfilled increasingly important part of the labor mar-
could mean 14.6 million additional non- jobs by 2018. ket. Currently, social-sector jobs account for
farm payroll jobs created between 2008 and 32 percent of employment. By 2018 there
2018. However, given projected population Beyond Retirement will be 6.9 million new jobs in the social
growth and current labor-force participa- One way to help reduce the size of the sector, accounting for 47 percent of all the
tion rates (and assuming no major change potential labor shortage is by encouraging expected U.S. employment growth.
in immigration policy), there will be only older workers to continue in their current Looked at by industry, nearly 4 million
about 9.1 million additional workers to jobs beyond normal retirement age or to of the most promising encore career oppor-
fill all those positions. Even taking into find encore careers after they retire. Civic tunities will be in health care and social
account multiple-job holders, the total Ventures, a nonprofit think tank focus- assistance; 1.1 million in local government;
number of jobs that could be filled at cur- ing on baby boomers and social-purpose 800,000-plus in educational institutions;
rent labor-force participation rates is 9.6 work, defines encore careers as occupations nearly 450,000 in state government; and
million, leaving 5.0 million to 5.7 million for older workers that “combine personal close to 380,000 in nonprofits such as reli-
potential jobs vacant. fulfillment, social impact, and continued gious and community organizations. (See
The BLS projects, however, that boom- income.”2 One sector of the economy that “Social-Sector Job Growth.”)
ers will stay active in the labor force longer exhibits the characteristics of encore careers Among the millions of opportuni-
than previous generations because of better is the social sector: for example, health care ties that will be added to social-sector jobs
health and a desire to keep active. More- and social assistance; educational services; (more than 85 percent of which do not
over, boomers may need to work longer to nonprofit community and religious orga- require physical stamina), the vast major-
make up for value lost in homes or port- nizations; the performing arts; museums; ity are well suited to encore career seekers.
folios in the downturn. Nevertheless, the libraries; and government.3 In many cases, older workers could carry
increases may not be enough to avert a labor their existing skills and credentials into
Communities & Banking 21
3. new settings. For example, a registered nurse higher than the BLS projects Labor-Force Participation Rates
might move from a major hospital to a com- for 2018 and 10 percentage 2008 and 2018
munity clinic; a computer systems analyst at points higher than the cur-
a private software company might take a job rent 2008 rate) and raising the Age Group 2008 Rate 2018 Rate
in local government; a civil engineer at a pri- rate for 65- to 74-year-olds to (in percent) (in percent)
vate construction firm might work on a state 33.3 percent from the project-
government highway project. ed 2018 rate of 30.5 percent 16-24 58.8 54.5
(and the current rate of 25.1
The Promise of Encore Jobs percent) while boosting the 25-34 83.3 82.4
According to the BLS, the labor-force partici- rate for those 75 and older to 35-44 84.1 83.2
pation rate of younger adults will continue to 12.4 percent. 45-54 81.9 81.7
decline as more attend college and graduate Such a scenario is not
55-64 64.5 68.1
school and undertake professional studies. impossible given continued
There will even be slight declines in partici- expected improvements in 65-74 25.1 30.5
pation among those aged 25 to 54 if parents the health status and project- 75+ 7.3 10.3
decide to take advantage of improved mater- ed lower morbidity of older
Total 66 64.5
nity and paternity leave. Americans, but it would like-
In contrast, large increases in labor-force ly require changes in many Source: Mitra Toosi, “Labor Force Projections to 2018: Older Workers
participation are expected to occur among jobs. That is why beginning Staying More Active,” Monthly Labor Review, November 2009.
those 55 and older, with 55- to 64-year- to think of ways to restructure
olds increasing their participation rate from work to appeal to older work-
64.5 percent to 68.1 percent between 2008 ers is advisable. What types
and 2018. Workforce participation by those of training and mentoring will they need?
aged 65 to 74 is expected to increase from How can social-sector jobs be reconfigured Barry Bluestone is dean of Northeastern Uni-
25.1 percent to 30.5 percent. Participation to take full advantage of the talents of an versity’s School of Public Policy and Urban Af-
by those aged 75-plus is projected to increase older, but experienced, workforce? If jobs are fairs and the director of the Dukakis Center for
from 7.3 percent to 10.3 percent. (See not restructured to attract older workers, it Urban and Regional Policy. Mark Melnik is
“Labor-Force Participation Rates.”) is likely that wages will be bid up to entice the Boston Redevelopment Authority deputy di-
Changes in labor-force participation enough workers to fill expected vacancies— rector for research.
rates mean that the social-sector subset could and that could lead to higher rates of price
see its workforce increase by 5.4 million. But inflation. Endnotes
that still leaves a gap of 1.5 million social- Soon a much larger percentage of the 1 This article is based on Barry Bluestone and Mark
sector jobs that could remain unfilled if workforce will be over 55. As one observ- Melnik, “After the Recovery: Help Needed—The
projected participation rates hold true. er has suggested, if trained and strategically Coming Labor Shortage and How People in Encore
The gap could be closed if the partici- deployed, boomers could “function as the Careers Can Help Solve It,” Civic Ventures, March
pation of adults 55 and older increases more backbone of education, health care, non- 2010.
than official projections. One scenario for profits, the government, and other sectors 2 S e e h t t p : / / w w w. e n c o r e . o r g / l e a r n / a b o u t
filling the entire employment gap would essential to national well-being.”4 Society encorecareers.
involve both raising the labor-force partici- could gain workers uniquely suited to pro- 3 For our purposes, the definition of the social sector is
pation rate for 55- to 64-year-olds to 74.4 viding many of the services on which the limited to that portion of the economy. But because
percent (more than 6 percentage points country relies. jobs beyond the scope of our analysis (for example,
green jobs) can be considered part of the sector, the
Estimated Population by Age Cohort 4
implications are, if anything, understated.
Marc Freedman, Encore: Finding Work That Matters
2008-2018 (in millions) in the Second Half of Life (New York: Public Affairs
50 Books, 2007).
40 2008 This Communities & Banking article is copy-
2018 righted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
The views expressed are not necessarily those of
30 the Bank or the Federal Reserve System. Copies
of articles may be downloaded without cost at
www.bos.frb.org/commdev/c&b/index.htm.
20
10
0
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
22 Spring 2011