To arrive at a methodology that will help identify the factors that led to the uprising in Egypt; so as to predict and preempt such events in future by taking proactive action

1. Once upon a time… in Egypt
Rajna Rajan

2. Arab Spring
Why now ?

3. Objective
A methodology to identify factors that could
trigger such revolutions…
... to predict & pre-empt proactively

4. Once upon a time…in Egypt
Years
Muhammad Hosni El Sayed Mubarak - President since 1981

5. The T Challenges
win
1 A retrospective view of Egypt to arrive at a predictive
model
2 Capturing the citizens‟ views in authoritarian regimes
1 7
Most Free Least Free
Civil Liberties Political Rights
Source : Freedom in the World Survey ‟11

6. A holistic approach
Cultural
Society
Political Economic

7. Measuring each dimension
Socio-cultural World Values Survey 2000 & 2008
Trend Analysis on key macro-economic variables
Socio-economic (2001 to 2010)
Social Media Netnography (Qualitative)
Socio-political Universe Identification – Text Mining – Content Analysis

8. Hypothesis
Uncertainty
Socio Cultural Dimension
Power Distance Avoidance Collectivism
Shift in Value System?

9. Over time, economic issues were #1 priority
Poverty biggest problem; Strong support for democracy
Socio Economic Dimension
Fight rising Stable Economic
prices economy growth
2000 18% 47% 54%
2008 70% 70% 74%
Source :WVS figures „00 & „08

10. Rising trends; Poor economic performance
2010
Socio Economic Dimension
Population below poverty line 22%
Unemployment rate 9%
Inflation 11%
Corruption 98/178
Human Development Index 101/169
Source : World Bank, IMF, Transparency International; Figures benchmarked to 2001

11. Socio Political Dimension Main themes of online conversations…
‟04-‟05
‟06-‟08
‟09-‟10

12. Socio Political Dimension Themes that gained traction in 2009 & 2010
Police brutality Corruption Poverty
Human rights violations appeared in tandem with
police brutality.

13. Common emergent issues that triggered the revolution
Socio-cultural Socio-economic 1. Poverty
2. Unemployment
3. Corruption
4. Rising prices
5. Freedom / Democracy
Socio-political
Shift in value system not a necessary precursor

14. Framework
Conventional
Research Approach
+ Neo methodologies
like Social Media
Netnography
360o approach :Monitoring online behavior macro economic parameters along
,
with cultural shifts if any

15. Applicability
Ideal scenario: Barometer for authoritative
regimes; resulting in proactive handling of
issues in the better interests of its citizens
Aid human rights watchers, NGOs, NPOs to
plan effective & efficient campaigns

16. “and we all lived happily ever after…”