This month I'm very excited about Brett Love! Brett has been sharing his tips with members of the Betting School Insiders Club and they are very impressive. Read the Q&A with Brett for more info on that. Also inside John Burke has shared his thoughts and methods for finding winners and just importantly losers in the parade ring. Wendy has a profile of Colin Tizzard along with a look at some of his best prospects and a system that will no doubt find some Tizzard winners over the winter. Wendy's Monthly Methods column is also doing well with plenty of recent profits and this month Wendy has uncovered a trainer who makes a level stakes profit across all his runners at this time of year. Ben Aitken has some more horses to follow this winter. And Nick Hardman has investigated whether local trainers are profitable in Scotland, All that as well as the usual profiles. product reviews and our tipster top ten.

2. Editor's Welcome
Autumn and winter always come along with mixed feelings for me.
I love the late nights of summer and the opportunities to get out and stay out doing
things that are best done in daylight.
But I love the winter racing, I know most of our writer's love winter racing and we all
love it because that's when we make most of our profits with the more predictable
National Hunt racing where there is more form, more trends that stand up and time for
races to unravel and for true form to be exposed.
Of course we have fallers to contend with but it is still easier than trying to work with
the limited form of two and three year olds on the flat.
This month I'm very excited about Brett Love! Brett has been sharing his tips with
members of the Betting School Insiders Club and they are very impressive. Read the
Q&A with Brett for more info on that.
Also inside John Burke has shared his thoughts and methods for finding winners and
just importantly losers in the parade ring.
Wendy has a profile of Colin Tizzard along with a look at some of his best prospects
and a system that will no doubt find some Tizzard winners over the winter.

3. Wendy's Monthly Methods column is also doing well with plenty of recent profits and
this month Wendy has uncovered a trainer who makes a level stakes profit across all his
runners at this time of year.
Ben Aitken has some more horses to follow this winter.
And Nick Hardman has investigated whether local trainers are profitable in Scotland.
All that as well as the usual profiles, product reviews and our tipster top ten.
I hope you enjoy this month's issue.
If you've picked up this issue from a friend and would like to subscribe for free Click
Here
All the Best
Darren Power
Cover image by Paul (Horse racing) [CC BY 2.0
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

5. Local Jumps Trainers - Scotland
The saying “horses for courses” does have an element of truth and so does “trainers for
courses” for that matter. Trainers are creatures of habit and following their habitual
patterns can prove profitable in the long term. One thing is for sure, trainers and owners
alike enjoy nothing more than a winner at their local track.
For example, James Moffatt’s local track is Cartmel and he enjoys more success there
than anywhere else in the country. Sometimes these local yards can be overlooked in the
betting unless of course the bookies and punters alike have cottoned on. I want to
explore this local trainer angle a little more and I am taking a look at Scottish jumps
trainers who send runners to Scottish courses.
There are four tracks that hold national hunt races in Scotland – Perth, Kelso, Ayr and
Musselburgh. I am going to be looking at the performance of the Scottish jumps yards
at these four courses in the hope of uncovering a few potentially profitable angles to put
into our tracker during the current jumps season.
I will be focussing on the years 2010 to 2017 and paying particular attention to those
trainers with a good recent record in the last couple of seasons. We kick things off at
Perth, a track synonymous with Gordon Elliott and Nigel Twiston-Davies, but we will
be looking to see which local trainers upset the apple cart when the big guns are in
town.

6. Perth
Local trainers have won 121 races at Perth since 2010 but they have had 1512 runners
and that equates to a strike rate of a lowly 8%. Lucinda Russell has been responsible for
41 of those 121 local winners but at a strike rate of 9.62% there is no profitable angle to
be exploited. Next comes Nick Alexander with 11 winners but at an even lower strike
rate of 7.19%. Perhaps if there is one local trainer who may slip under the radar at Perth
it is Jackie Stephens.
She has saddled 9 winners there from 62 runners since 2010 but those results are better
than the bare figures. She is 0-7 in bumpers and has had no winners in races of 2m 5f or
further. Sticking to hurdles and chases over 2m to 2m 2½f her record reads:
Now we have a trainer with a 20% strike rate at her local track and those runners have
realised a profit of £20.79 at Betfair SP and an ROI of 47%. However, we can improve
on those figures if we concentrate on the handicap runners who are 7-27:
The ROI is now up at 72% and the strike rate is a manageable one at 26%. I would not
put this up as an angle as such but I would say that Jackie Stephens’ runners at Perth
running in handicaps are worth a market check. As for the rest, well I would say that
Perth is not a happy hunting ground for local Scottish trainers.
Kelso
Local trainers have fared better at Kelso with 159 winners at a 10.25% strike rate since
2010. Lucinda Russell again tops the list with 32 winners at a strike rate of 11.35%.
Her runners fare best in small field, less competitive races and all bar 2 of her 32
winners have come in races with 11 or fewer runners. Sticking to races of less than 12
runners, we also find that 26 of the 30 winners have come in handicap races.
Backing these runners (handicap races of less than 12 runners) has produced a small
profit at Betfair SP:
That is not enough to really interest me but it is worth exploring those handicap runners
a little further. Class 5 runners fare poorly with a record of 2-31, so it is better to
concentrate on the race classes 2 down to 4.

7. We now see some more respectable numbers with 24 winners from 136 runners since
2010 and a P/L at Betfair SP of £25.03.
Looking at the breakdown of those races it is the novice handicappers (hurdles and
chase) and the handicap hurdlers who fare best. Sticking to the Lucinda Russell runners
in class 2, 3 and 4 novice handicap hurdles and chases and handicap hurdles, we have
the following Kelso record:
That is not a bad set of figures and even better when you consider such runners are 12-
40 in the last 3 years for a profit of £51.37 at Betfair SP.
Next up is Nick Alexander with 25 winners at a strike rate of 13%. His bumper runners
are 0-10 so we can discount those for starters. He has also drawn a blank in class 2 and
class 6 races at Kelso so we will stick to the race classes 3, 4 and 5 which are where he
has most of his runners.
Now we have a trainer with a moderate 15% strike rate but a huge level stakes profit. A
lot of novice system creators tend to get a bit excited at this point but low strike rate, big
profit means one or two huge priced winners. Looking at the results in detail we find
that Landecker won for Nick Alexander at Kelso at an industry SP of 50/1 and a Betfair
SP of 262. That is not to say we should abandon Nick Alexander at this point and it is
worth continuing to look at his runners more closely. Maiden hurdlers fare poorly 1-12
and staying types racing over 3 miles and further are similarly poor at 1-16.
That leaves the trainer with 21 winners from 120 runners in class 3, 4 and 5 races, run
over trips short of 3 miles and excluding the maiden hurdlers. It is easy to start back-
fitting if we dig any deeper so I will leave it there for Nick Alexander.
Ayr
The Scottish trainers have won 152 races at Ayr since 2010 at a strike rate of around
12%. Lucinda Russell has been responsible for 32 of those winners. I have crunched
those numbers in detail and there is no profitable angle to be uncovered. She runs a lot
there and those 32 winners have come at a strike rate of 13% but overall these runners
are not profitable to follow whichever way you cut it.

8. Of more interest is Jim Goldie with 17 winners from 142 runners. That strike rate is
around 12%. He is 0-4 in bumpers so stick with those sent over obstacles. Nearly all the
hurdles and chase winners have come in class 3 and class 4 races giving him an overall
strike rate of 14-85 (16% strike rate), improving to 14-82 when keeping to races over 2
miles to 3m ½f.
He is also 0-8 in class 3 and 4 non-handicap races so sticking to the class 3 and 4
handicappers improve his figures further to 14-74 (19% strike rate) and a profit of
£28.89 at Betfair SP.
Sticking to class 4 handicaps has been a good tactic with 9 winners from just 32 runners
at a 28% strike rate and level stakes profits of £16.62 at Betfair SP. I would include
those runners in the one higher grade as these have also produced profits of £12.27,
despite having an inferior strike rate of 12%.
However, the best angle may simple be to back his handicap hurdlers as they have a
record of 10-49 (20% strike rate) and realise profits of £20.57 at Betfair SP. His
handicap hurdlers in class 4 races are 7-22 which is a mightily impressive 32% strike
rate and they have produced decent profits of £17.06.
Nick Alexander also sends plenty of runners to Ayr and he has notched up 28 winners
from 195 runners at a strike rate of 14% and backing all those runners blind would have
returned a small profit of £21.29 at Betfair SP since 2010. The first thing to note is that
the majority of Nick Alexander’s Ayr winners have come in small fields of between 4
and 9 runners. Their overall record reads 23-125 (18% strike rate) for a profit of £58.46
at Betfair SP.
However, we can improve on those figures by concentrating on the handicappers who
are 22-131 at a better strike rate of 17%. The class 2 and 3 runners have a poor 1-28
record, leaving the class 4, 5 and 6 runners with a combined record of 22-97 (23% strike
rate) and returning a profit of £75.01 at Betfair SP. This also includes the filter for field
size so this overall record is for class 4, 5 and 6 runners in fields of 9 or fewer runners.

9. Sticking to those field sizes and classes 4,5 and 6 we see positive results with
handicappers returning a profit (16-67; £33.03) as well as the non-handicap runners (6-
30; £41.99). Winners have come in bumper races, maiden hurdles, handicap hurdles and
chases and handicap novice chases. The results split makes for interesting reading given
Nick Alexander is more renowned for his hurdlers. That category of runner does chip in
with 9 winners from 54 runners but these return a loss at SP. The ones to be on are his
bumper runners (3-11) and his chasers (10-32). Combining those two groups produces
some excellent results:
If you are looking for a micro-angle then the class 4 chasers, in fields of 9 or less
runners have a record of 10-28 (36% strike rate) for a profit of £41.83 at Betfair SP.
James Ewart is another trainer who sends a lot of runners to Ayr and has an overall
record of 11-104 since 2010. He runs plenty in bumpers but do not back them as they
are 1-22 in the last 8 years. His hurdlers and chasers fare much better striking 10 times
between them.
All 10 winners were racing over 2 miles to 2m 4f. Over those race distances, his
hurdlers and chasers have a combined record of 10-61 (16% strike rate) and just about
realise a small profit on the exchanges. If the bumper runners are poor then the maiden
hurdlers are just as bad with a record of 0-10 and the novice hurdlers are 1-10. That
leaves the handicap hurdlers and the handicap chasers and they combine for a very
respectable record of 9-36 (25% strike rate) for a profit of £25.33 at Betfair SP.
Putting that in perspective, James Ewart’s bumper and non-handicap runners in hurdles
and chases have a combined record of 2-42. So, if you fancy one of these I would be
inclined to save your money for one of his handicap runners.
Musselburgh
Local Scottish trainers have saddled 98 winners from 993 runners at a strike rate of just
under 10% at Musselburgh since 2010. That is by far the lowest number of winners at
any of the four Scottish tracks in that time period. However, the strike rate is not
dissimilar to other tracks and the numbers are worth exploring further. No surprise to
see Lucinda Russell again top the charts with 28 winners from 252 runners. Twenty-
five of those 28 winners have been in handicaps and that is a good place to start.

10. Those racing over 2 miles to 2m 3f are just 1-34 and those racing over further than 3
miles are 2-25. Those racing over 2m 3 ½f to 3 miles fare much better and combine for
a record of 22-114 (19% strike rate) and a profit of £14.47 at Betfair SP. Class 5 runners
are 1-9 and of the remainder running in class 3 and 4 events, they combine for 21
winners from 105 runners at a strike rate of 20%. The handicap hurdlers fare better and
they are the ones that generate a profit:
So, if you fancy one from the Lucinda Russell yard at Musselburgh, look to the
handicap hurdlers.
That man James Ewart crops up again with 15 winners from 93 runners and again his
numbers are interesting. There are a number of different ways you may want to
approach his runners at Musselburgh. Firstly, his runners in class 4 and class 5 events
have been responsible for 12 of his 15 winners from just 63 runners:
They have a strike rate of 19% but return a healthy profit of £42.36 at Betfair SP.
Second, all of the profit has been made by backing the handicap hurdlers who have a
record of 9 wins from 30 runners for a profit of £61.19 at Betfair SP.
If you want to follow the handicap hurdlers then ignore the class filter as these runners
have won in class 2, 3, 4 and 5 handicap hurdle races.
For our On Course Profit Gold members this month Nick looks further at Ayr,
Musselburgh and Kelso and picks up a number of additional angles which look a sure
fire way to bag a profit.
You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here...
http://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/

11. If you'd like to bet alongside Dr Nick at all the big meetings this year, check out his
Festival Tips service which made 481 points profit in 2016 - Click Here.
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

13. A Q and A with Brett Love
1. Hi Brett and many thanks for joining us this month, would you start by telling
us a little about yourself and your background?
Hi and very nice to be here. I originally had the same boyhood dream as a lot of young
lads in that I was desperate to be a professional footballer. Lucky for me and due to
passion and ability I got the chance to fulfil that fantasy when I was picked up by West
Bromwich Albion as a 13 year old schoolboy.
I worked and trained very hard and eventually I was chosen to be 1 of 12 apprentices.
For the next 2 years I played at a lot of the best grounds in England and was pretty
successful and I was over the moon when they offered me professional terms just after
my 17th birthday.
I started the 1st season as a pro brilliantly, scoring and creating lots of goals and I was
soon propelled into travelling with the 1st team. Unfortunately, just a couple of days
after I travelled with them for the 1st time I suffered an horrendous injury which
sidelined me for the next 9 months and eventually put an end to my career and dreams.
From that moment onwards I still had a burning ambition to be 'someone' and turned to
my next greatest passion which of course was horse racing!

14. My Dad had always been a tipster so I learnt the ropes from him and eventually
developed my own betting techniques/strategies. I have been betting ever since and
decided to become a professional punter/tipster around 10 years ago.
2. What attracted you to the world of horse racing world and what do you enjoy
most about the sport?
My passion and attraction to horse racing first came about through my great uncle, Bill
Love, who owned the 1982 Cheltenham Festival Triumph Hurdle favourite The Grey
Bomber! I was only 6 at the time but vividly remember him being unbeatable around
the Prestbury Park track and I just loved going to visit him at his yard to watch him
school like a leopard over several flights of hurdles on a crisp winters morning.
Trained by Denys Smith and ridden by Chris Grant, Bomber was the unbeaten, bold
jumping grey who had such a wonderful nature but who was devastatingly electrocuted
in a freak accident at home before his full potential could ever be reached! I cried for
days afterwards.
I enjoy lots of different elements of racing, from simply watching the animals in action,
to visiting the tracks and soaking up the atmosphere. I obviously enjoy earning a living
from betting but the one defining thing that I say I most enjoy is the daily test and the
satisfaction I gain from 'solving the puzzle' in picking those winners!
3. What led you into the world of racing tipsters and what do you feel you can offer
racing enthusiasts and punters that other tipsters can’t?
As stated earlier, my Dad was a tipster so I thought to myself I can do that.
I enjoyed the way he went about his business and what it entailed, so I put a lot of time
and effort into following in his footsteps but trying to find my own little niche/edge in
the sport to stand out from the crowd.
I think I can offer something to suit everyone. As I have proven, I have a very high level
stakes profit to suit the every day punter and a very impressive ROI to suit the
professionals that work on a high monetary turnover but tend to bet less often. I am very
consistent and try to limit long losing runs.
My main standout attribute and unique selling point that I can offer is that I am one of
only a very select few, I believe, that makes a good profit based on figures calculated at
returned Industry SP alone!! I am quite selective and target the better class races and
hate to lose my own money let alone anyone else's so if anyone wants to follow
me/subscribe to my service they can rest assured that they are investing in selections I
have put lots of time and effort into finding and that I will confidently put my own hard
earned cash on.

15. I'm not in it for the get rich quick merchants, I like steady, realistically attainable
profitability over a long sustainable period.
4. What traits do you think a good racing tipster should possess and what do you
think the average punter is looking for from a tipping service?
If I or any average punter were joining a tipping service I would look for transparency
and not fictional figures that most tipsters in the papers claim. I would like to listen or
read the rationale behind the selections and would hope to keep long losing runs to a
minimum.
I think a good racing tipster can provide this and should possess a good working ethic
alongside sound, disciplined selection and betting processes and approaches.
The true sign of a good tipster in my opinion, I firmly believe, is if they can make a
profit to SP which very, very few can. Even though you should try your damnedest to
get value and the best possible price, for a lot of followers/bettors this is becoming
increasingly harder, nigh on impossible for some than ever before so SP or BETFAIR
SP is the only metric which is truly attainable and measurable for EVERYONE to
gauge.
I would like to think that anyone looking and judging the merit of my results would
look at profits based on both advised prices (which are available at the time of selection)
and the returned Betfair SP and realistically believe they could easily achieve a profit
figure halfway between the two!
5. How would you describe a typical working day?
I tend to concentrate on the best races at the better class meetings/courses so with the
way racing is going at the moment (apart from when the festivals are on like
Cheltenham, Aintree Chester etc) I tend to be very quiet in the week and work towards
being fresh and raring to go for the weekend. Friday and Saturday are generally my 2
main betting days so this is a typical weekend.
FRIDAY - I will have already put my bets on for the day so from about 3pm onwards I
am getting ready for Saturdays racing. I study the form tirelessly using the Racing Post
website and the tools they provide for members. I closely monitor Oddschecker for any
drastic movement and to find the best available prices that I can easily get.
SATURDAY - I am up at 5.30am to get the papers then on to my office for 6am. I grab
a couple of coffee's to wake me up and peruse the national papers just to get relaxed and
in the zone. From 6am until around 6pm, I literally plan every second. It is high
pressure for 12 hours.

16. Six hours of intense form analysis again (in case of overnight changes in going etc)
before sending my tipping selections and then the betting session kicks off. Every
second counts. I maintain pre and post session checklists to ensure I keep to a
regimented process.
Hopefully I have had a good day and that is the last work day of the week for me, I
complete my usual 2 hour or so review of the Saturday races to help identify any areas
that I must continue to work on.
6. What style of approach do you take to your betting on a personal level? What do
you think of staking plans, loss retrieval systems etc.?
I have lots of different pots that I place bets out of following the numerous systems and
methods I have developed. I keep these ticking over with progressive staking plans that
increase the amount I place on each selection. I call these my retirement pension pots!
My main betting account is for form picks ONLY. I tend to stake my highest amounts
on these selections and they are the ones I send to my subscribers and live off day to
day.
I mainly bet each way and I work on a level stakes process to attainable prices but
having been limited by so many bookmakers I tend to place a lot of these on Betfair
now and I more often than not have to settle for Betfair SP which I find really profitable
due to the prices I tend to back at and especially on the place market on handicap races
under 16 runners.
Other than that I take little notice of staking plans and I think it is playing with fire
using a loss retrieval system as you would conceivably need an infinite amount of
money on a bad run to get it all back, just to make a small profit on top.
7. New and old punters alike can struggle to make a success of their betting. If you
could give them just one piece of advice to improve their profitability what would
it be?
It doesn’t matter what you are betting on, racing or sport, the most important thing is
discipline. Only bet on something you really want to bet on and don’t just bet on
something because it is there. Don’t chase your losses and if you lose, so be it, there is
another race coming up tomorrow. This is easier said than done but even when I have
had a really bad day I live by the mantra 'tomorrows another day'.
I would also say remember your wins, stick to what you think you are good at and
specialise on certain race types. There are copious amounts of races on any given day so
try to gain an edge over the crowd by limiting your range to pick from and keep good
records of the type /class/number of runners etc of these races if you have a bet in them.

17. My forte is form analysis and my main strength lies in analysing 7 furlong, 1 mile & 1
mile 2 furlong all aged handicaps on the flat and 2 mile, 2 mile 4 furlong handicap
hurdles over the jumps. I find these the easiest to read, especially Class 3 and upwards
and I regularly find the winners of these type of events.
8. What would you consider to be a highlight of your racing experience to date? Do
you have any personal racing / betting experiences which when reflecting back
brings a smile, or for that matter any which bring a grimace; you can share with
our readers?
The most satisfying and enjoyable moment of my betting career was undoubtedly also
my biggest single win. It was the 1996 Grand National and my favourite horse of all
time ROUGH QUEST.
I class myself as a bit of a novice punter back then but the emotional roller coaster I
went through that day watching him I don't think will ever be beaten. Having backed
him each way in the Cheltenham Gold cup at 66-1 I thought if he ran well there then he
would have a great chance in the National if taking his chance. He used to travel like a
dream with that big prominent noseband and ran a cracker to finish 2nd. I had already
availed myself to the 50-1 about him for the National and told all my friends and family
to do the same. Going off at 8-1 on the day, the hairs on the back of my neck and arms
stood up for the whole way round, and as usual he floated over the fences before
pouncing late on up the run in. The elation, and relief, I felt after that race was
indescribable.
It not so much of a grimace but a tinge of sadness. To this day, every time I see a grey
national hunt horse I think back to old Grey Bomber and the things he could have gone
on to achieve had he lived.
9. What about the gambling industry, is there anything you like to see changed
there? Many website forums are full of criticisms of the bookmakers and their
treatment of their customers? Is this something you have an opinion on?
I have a very strong and scathing opinion on the old enemy!
I find it a disgrace that even the small punters have a nightmare trying to get a
reasonable bet on to advertised prices. I am sick and tired of getting emails stating I
have had limitations put on my accounts and they should all be prosecuted for false
advertising!
Time and again you see certain bookies with stand out prices and place terms yet they
will lay you these to a paltry £1 stake! They should be made by law to stand those
prices to a reasonable amount to EVERYONE.

18. The other thing I hate at the moment is the BHA race planning.
The midweek fair is getting worse and worse and the prize money for the lowest level
races is paltry. I am all for the Class 6 horses and their like running as they keep the
industry ticking over but as much as I look forward to Saturdays the best races need to
be spread out and put back to when they were originally ran back in the day . There are
too many good meetings on Saturday which makes form analysis increasingly difficult
and very time consuming. This can lead to misjudgements and errors as a tired mind
gets overwhelmed with information.
10. What do you do to relax and unwind? What interests have you outside the
world of horse racing?
Win lose or draw, I always have a few beers after racing on a Saturday. After that I like
to go out with my wife for the evening for a nice meal etc.
I try to make Sunday a family day out for the kids doing various activities, last Sunday
was football golf! I like to spend as much time as I can with all my family and
especially look forward to holidays with them.
To keep the mind and body both sane and fit I still play a little 5 a side now and again.
11. You have to choose between horseracing and football? Which one win
Tricky one that!
Having had the chance to be a footballer that will always be my first love but if I had to
choose I would have chosen the best of both worlds and to have been a professional
footballer till around 35 years of age then a pro punter/tipster thereafter!
To find out more about Brett and his service go to www.lovesracing.com
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

19. Click Here to Find out More About Sports Betting Pays

20. Legends of The Turf - Colin Tizzard
Colin Tizzard is known by many in the racing world, born in 1956 he is the second son
of Leslie and Marjorie Tizzard of Venn Farm in Milborne Port, Somerset and he grew
up on the family farm. A member of The Pony Club at an early age he went on to have
success in point to point races and later rode under rules as an amateur jockey. Horses
have always been his passion, along with dairy farming, and he has made a success
when wearing both caps.
As a race horse trainer his career started back in 1995 albeit in a modest manner with
just a small handful of point to point runners which he would have ridden by his son
Joe. These small beginnings produced early success and eight winners in that season set
the wheels in motion for a successful training career. He took out a full training licence
in 1998 and with 10 horses in the yard he went and continues to go from strength to
strength.
His steady road to success over subsequent years has been a result of his training
facilities. Horses under his care currently have the benefit of both sand and all weather
gallops together with a large grassland area, beautiful countryside settings and the
peaceful surroundings of the lanes nearby in which to prepare a horse for racing.
The health and wellbeing of the horses is the most important factor to the yard and their
focus is directed toward ensuring that their horses are happy, relaxed and healthy and
that the relaxed atmosphere can help to improve the horse’s natural jumping ability.

21. With their wards being schooled regularly over either easy-fix fences or hurdles on
grass or at their Barrow Hill house where they have the use of a full sized Olympic
training arena with poles, baby hurdles and additional easy-fix fences the emphasis is
put on accuracy of jumping. Amazingly not all horses are natural jumpers and to
combine a good jumper with a turn of foot takes time and dedication. Starting the
youngsters off in the arena is of benefit for the young up and coming jumpers as the
surface is cushioned and helps to protect their delicate legs while in the summer the
gallops can also offer up a safe jumping ground for training.
Additional facilities at the yard include a covered horse walker which helps to provide a
very beneficial cool down after exercising particularly for those horses which are
returning to training after a lengthy lay off.
Over the past 5 seasons Colin Tizzard had produced in the region of 170 winners overall
including successes at the Cheltenham Festival and the Aintree Grand National from a
string of some 60 runners and has amassed in excess of £1,600,000 in prize money.
There are some very familiar names in the stables yard and none less than Cue Card
who won the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham back in 2010. From that point on the horse
has accrued a massive £1.3 million in career winnings with 16 wins from his 37 runs.
Sadly in his last two runnings in the Cheltenham Gold Cup he has fallen on both
occasions when placed to have had a major impact on the final outcome of the race.
A mere 3 weeks after his latest mishap he appeared at Aintree in the Betway Bowl.
Ridden in a positive manner it looked as though he was going to be the most likely
winner on the turn for home but it was not to be as he just couldn’t get clear of Tea For
Two ridden by Lizzie Kelly. Despite a late rally he was always being held from the final
fence and missed out on the title by a mere neck.
On the assumption that he returns this year from his summer break fit and well we may
well see him running in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby toward the end of this month
(October at the time of writing), or it may be that the yard wait it out until the Betfair
Chase at Haydock a few weeks later. It remains to be seen on whether the connections
will head for another stab at the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2018 or look to the Ryanair
Chase instead.
Cue Card isn’t the only notable ammunition in the Tizzard stable though.
Native River went from a promising young novice chaser to winning the Hennessy
Gold Cup at Newbury in November last year, and followed that win up when carrying a
massive 11 stone 12 pounds to win the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow over
the Christmas period.

22. This outstanding improvement earned him the opportunity to try his luck in the
Cheltenham Gold Cup where he finished a commendable third. If the horse can stay
sound, as a 7 year old, he has a number of options open to him which may well include
another attempt at the Blue Riband Gold Cup at Cheltenham’s 2018 festival.
Thistlecrack was made favourite for the 2017 Gold Cup but was sadly ruled out
following a tendon injury, while prior to that the 9 year old had won the King George at
Kempton on Boxing Day beating his stablemate Cue Card.
Thistlecrack jumped impressively throughout was cruised home while easing down
after the final fence. The reports are that he is making good progress from his injury and
all things being well will return to Kempton in an attempt to defend his King George
crown.
The new season for the Tizzard yard has started well, at the time of writing he has 4
winners from 17 runners (23.53% strike rate) and some well-placed efforts so hopefully
it all bodes well for the coming months and the road to Cheltenham.
There are a number of promising youngsters at the yard worthy of note too and we feel
that the following horses in particular could be worthy of taking not of:
Alary (7yo gelding) - Previously trained in France Alary was bought by Ann & Alan
Potts and the 3 runs to date under Tizzard may not have set the world alight with a
Pulled Up, Fell and Unplaced to its name but a stable tour interview with Tizzard
mentioned that he felt that the horse was still acclimatising, based on the evidence of the
schooling and on the gallops the horse has lots of potential apparently.
It’s likely that he will start out over hurdles in an attempt to help the horse to gain
confidence and possibly exploit a lower handicap mark.
Elegant Escape (5yo gelding) – After finishing second in his point to point race he
moved to the Tizzard yard in October 2016 and won his debut at 10/1 in a maiden
hurdle at Chepstow before going on to win a Class 2 Novice Hurdle at Ascot.
Four subsequent runs in Class 1 races proved too challenging but the horse ran well
nonetheless. Tizzard recently mentioned that he felt “he was a bit of weak horse last
year and achieved more than expected. He is more of a stayer and has all the makings of
a chaser” and based on entries that would appear to be the route the yard are taking.
Finian’s Oscar (5yo gelding) – He is a brother to Finian’s Rainbow, a two miler
(Champion Chase winner), which has come through the ranks from point to point. The
horse just doesn’t know when to stop and as such it looks as though he can cope with a
range of distances.

23. In his first season he started out by winning a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Hereford before
progressing in class to with the Betway Mersey at Aintree, and he just missed out by a
short head when at Punchestown in the Irish Novice Champion Hurdle. Connections
have the option of staying over hurdles or switching to Novice Chasing.
White Moon (5yo gelding) – Currently unraced under rules White Moon has shown
good promise in 3 runs at point to point with the final run offering a very easy win by
15 lengths.
The second horse in that race has subsequently won its race by 18 lengths and of White
Moon Tizzard said “He is a big boy and could be anything. He works really nice - I'd
say he is the one that has been exciting us more than anything else in the last month."
As a final thought to leave you with we have taken a closer look at the Tizzard yard’s
records to see if we could unearth any particularly profitable angles for our winter
jumps season.
To start with let’s take a look at the overall basic performance over the last 5 years
winter campaigns (2012/2013-2016/2017, Oct-April incl):-
Although the A/E indicates that the better performance has come from the Non-
Handicap runners there has been a decent profit at Betfair SP recorded in Handicap’s
too.
We are not going to close the door on the Non-Handicap races straight away though. It
may be worth looking at the results by individual race types, where there have been
more than 10 such runners during the research period.

24. Looking at the above statistics you could surmise that the Tizzard uses the Bumper
races as a schooling ground (don’t tell the BHA!) before putting that experience to good
effect as the horses compete in Maiden Hurdles.
As the runners then move into Novice Hurdle company the strike rate and profitability
drops somewhat, although the runners in Novice Hurdle Handicaps have paid their way,
but picks up again as they embark on their Novice Chase careers.
The final icing on the cake are the Handicap Chase runners which have returned a solid
profit in excess of 100pts at Betfair SP and just shy of +30% ROI.
Before we can make any conclusions though about the Tizzard yard it makes sense to
check how the “bolded race types” have fared by the individual years in our research
timelines:-
If we focus on the returns to Betfair SP, apart from a blip in 2015, the remaining years
were profitable and encouragingly the profile appears to be getting stronger with the
latest 2 years producing the greatest returns.
As ever we need to consider the caveat that the yard may have been over performing
and no doubt it won’t have entirely escaped the notice of the bookies and punters alike.
Having said that there is definitely a buzz about the yard with new young horses being
added to the ranks and the patronage of big owners Alan & Ann Potts so there is every
reason to be hopeful that the 2017/18 campaign can be a successful one including the
micro method that the above research has uncovered.
Summary – Follow Colin Tizzard's runners in Maiden Hurdles, Novice Chases,
Handicap Novice Hurdles and Handicap Chases during the National Hunt Season.
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

26. November Plans
November sees the start of the National Hunt season proper and the past two years we
have taken a look firstly at the more well known trainers such as Paul Nicholls and
Kerry Lee, we hasten to add with little success and last year we hoped that Ben Pauling
would help to reverse our fortunes.
On that basis we are going to take a further look to Pauling this year with the hope he
can breed some success for us.
Pauling grew up around horses and having started training in 2013 he has put to good
use the knowledge he acquired while working as assistant trainer to Nicky Henderson
for six years.
Based in Bourton on the Water in Gloucestershire there are a mix of horses at his stable
covering a range of disciplines.
Had you backed all of his runners since 2013 during the winter months of November
and December you would have cleared a profit to £1.00 point level stakes at Starting
Prices of over 100 points!

27. Of these 180 runners all but 4 were run in National Hunt races and so this is where we
will concentrate our efforts.
Last year backing all of his National Hunt runners for the months in question cleared a
profit of over 38 points and this is consistent with the previous two years. 2013 he was
cutting his teeth and we certainly feel that he has cut them well.
Proving his abilities as a multi code trainer we can see by splitting out his runners over
Chases, Hurdles and National Hunt Flat his win strike rate is pretty consistent
whichever code you look at.
Of the 176 runners shown above just 12 have gone off with a Betfair Starting Price
greater than or equal to 50.00 but interestingly when they did all 12 finished out with
the washing so we feel quite strongly that we can avoid any runners which are extreme
outsiders.
Also any runners in the top classes have failed to perform as well as we would like. Of
the 15 horses which have run in Class 1 and 2 races just 1 has won its race and that one
was the extreme odds on shot Barter’s Hill at 1/3 in December 2015.
So we need to concentrate on Class 3 races and below.
At first glance we were planning on not going to worry too much about differentiating
between his Handicap and Non Handicap runners as his strike rate appears to be pretty
consistent here too.

28. However, 2016 shows a completely different picture.
Of the 55 runners in November and December 2016 22 were run in Handicaps and
although the strike rate was in the same ball park the profits were not. The chances are
that the crowd is now well aware of his past success and as such the prices of his
handicappers last year show just 3 hitting double figures.
Whether his Non Handicappers prices will go the same way remains to be seen but 2016
Non Handicap runners would have yielded 51 points profit last year with a 30% win
strike rate and an almost 50% place strike rate.
Backing each way enhances the profits very little so on that basis…
Back Ben Pauling’s National Hunt Non Handicap runners in Class 3 or lower to
WIN during the months of November and December. (Ignore any horse at 50.00+)
This year we will also be watching out for runners from a couple of female trainers who
have certainly delivered profits over the past 5 years, Margaret Mullins and Pam Sly.
Their combined efforts have produced an average of 20 points each year for the
November / December period with a healthy place strike rate, those 100 points profit
could have been improved backing each way by more than 25%.
With runners on both the All Weather and on the National Hunt circuit it is the National
Hunt runners we need to be interested in.

29. Those National Hunt runners have produced healthy profits every year for the past 5
years all bar a very minor loss of 1.27 points in 2015 (2012 – 34.42, 2013 – 35.33, 2014
– 29.75, 2016 – 12.75). A total profit for the 5 year period to ISP and £1.00 level stakes
of almost 111 points and backing each way would have increased the returns even
further to 146 points.
And almost all of those profits have come from their Handicap runners.
And as with Ben Pauling if their runners are going off with prices in excess of 50.00 on
Betfair ignore them as are unlikely to win.
Back Margaret Mullins and Pam Sly National Hunt Handicap runners EACH
WAY during the months of November and December. (Ignore any horse at
50.00+).
For the All Weather we have decided to head over to Ireland and one trainer we will be
watching is Sheila Lavery.
Operating out of County Leath since 2012 her runners are few and far between but
when hitting the All Weather almost two thirds of her runners have finished in the
places and an each way approach to her runners could offer up positive returns to add to
the coffers for November and December.
On Reflection
Our September methods closed as follows:
McDonogh / Newland / Sowersby/Fellowes +6.75
McDonogh -8.00
Sowersby - +10.00
Newland - +0.75
Charlie Fellowes +4.00

30. Mohammed / Storey / Feane +12.00
Mohammed +2.00
Storey +13
Feane – 3.00
Perrett / Palmer +2.18
Palmer -5.25
Palmer +7.43
October to date: +9.18
Farrell -6.00
Fell -7.75
Whittington +5.15
Barnes -1.00
Tate and Vaughan - +18.75
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

31. Early Season Novice Notes
It’s unusual to see the real big players hitting the track until we reach into November,
sometimes even later, especially when it comes to the second season hurdlers and
chasers. It can also be the case that we don’t see some of the more ‘hyped’ novice
hurdlers and chasers until the ‘new season’ is fully under way in November. Some
trainers do, however, like to get their youngsters out earlier so they can find a weak
contest or two to get a bit of experience into their prospects and to generally smooth off
the rough edges prior to the major stars hitting the track.
Plenty can be garnished from a novices’ debut efforts and whilst it may just be the
starting point for them you do like to see a victory on debut or at the very least some
solid signs that the jumping ability is there for their new discipline.
Part of my own personal punting involves extensive note taking and although my main
area of concentration revolves around top class handicappers/graded horses I do like to
get a horse in the notebook early in its career so that I can build a profile up over time.
The following horses, at the time of writing this (mid October), are a set of Novice
Hurdlers and Chasers that have already been seen (and won) in their new discipline this
season (they all ran in the September – October period) and caught my eye as horses to
potentially profit from at some stage this season or at the very least at a further stage of
their careers (i.e. when going novice chasing or handicapping).
I’ll start with the Novice Hurdlers…

32. Novice Hurdlers
HEART OF KERNOW (N Hawke) 5yo
September/October form
14th Sept; 1st of 6, Class 5 Maiden Hurdle, Hexham
6th Oct; 1st of 4, Class 4 Novice Hurdle, Hexham
Notes - There is no doubt this Fruits Of Love youngster got lucky on his second start
this season at Hexham, given that he was 7 lengths down at the last and seemingly
struggling when the leader fell, leaving him to saunter home by 9 lengths from 12yo
Portrait King. That race was his first start at 2m7f and given how quickly he set off it’s
no surprise he was tiring as they turned for home on the demanding track. He’s a big,
unfurnished 5yo who still needs to learn to settle but once that penny has dropped he
could be a real stable star for his under the radar yard.
Chasing looks his long-term goal and with a few more hurdle runs this season to gain
valuable track experience likely to benefit him greatly, as well as another summer on his
back to fill his frame, he looks one to keep on the radar for when he goes chasing
(hopefully in the 2018/19 season).
CALETT MAD (N Twiston-Davies) 5yo
September/October form
28th Sept; 1st of 3, Class 4 Novice Hurdle, Perth
Notes - This one is of more interest for the here and now, albeit he’s is also one that will
eventual prove to be more adept over fences. Indeed he started his career in the UK last
season as a Novice Chaser but this term trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies decided he
needed to get a bit more racing experience/race craft under his belt and started him off
in Novice Hurdles (he raced three times in France over hurdles without winning on any
of those starts).
He was expected to win at Perth as he started as 2/5 fav so the victory was of no great
surprise, however, you couldn’t fail to be impressed by the 22L victory and the fact he
had to get into a bit of a battle to assert his dominance, something he didn’t really show
over fences last season (for all he did show plenty of flashes of class).
It was also noteworthy that this Perth victory was his third best performance on the RPR
ratings scales. He’s only a 5yo so there must be a temptation for NTD to keep him
hurdling this season and he should be more than capable of picking up a few novice
events along the way, whilst all the time toughening him up for a return to chasing at
some point in the future.

33. MOYROSS – (N Meade) 6yo
September/October form
18th Sept; 1st of 12, Maiden Hurdle, Galway
Notes - Another that is probably a bit more of a long term prospect as he is a huge horse
and staying chases will, in time, be his bread and butter. The way the imposing son of
Kayf Tara (out of a Supreme Leader mare, giving him an eye-catching jumping
pedigree) won on hurdling debut at Galway, however, suggests he could well pick up a
decent novice staying hurdle at some stage this term.
That Galway race really didn’t play to his strengths as he was chopped for room 2 out
and had to switch position to get a clear run. Once he was in the open though he fairly
stamped his authority and he looks an exciting prospect for the short and long term.
GOLDEN JEFFREY – (I Jardine) 4yo
September/October form
28th Sept; 1st of 9, Class 4 Novice Hurdle, Perth
Notes - An interesting type this one as he’s been mixing it on the flat and over hurdles
this summer/autumn but based on his 15L romp at Perth in September I’m hoping we
see more of him in the National Hunt sphere.
It’s unlikely the horses in behind at Perth that day were up to all that much but it was
the manner of his victory that impressed me the most and it wouldn’t be difficult to see
him adopt similar front running tactics around similar tracks and prove hard to peg
back, especially on the north circuit.
STRATUM – (W Mullins) 4yo
September/October form
18th Sept, 1st of 12, Maiden Hurdle, Galway
Notes - Mullins snapped up this former John Gosden inmate from the Tattersall's
Autumn sales last October for 160k and duly gave him almost a year off the track before
introducing him to the hurdling game at Galway in September. He scooted up by a
comfortable 5L that day and looks like to improve on his already decent flat form now
heading over obstacles.
To be fair he was no slouch on the flat, ending up with a rating of 92, so he clearly has a
bit of boot to him and he looks well worth following in the novice hurdle division for
his crack trainer.
THE BRASSMOULDER – (H De Bromhead) 7yo
September/October form
8th Sept; 1st of 14, Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan

34. Notes - This 7yo dug deep to win over hurdles at the second attempt from an Anthony
Mullins trained hot-favourite, with the pair upwards of 16L clear of the remainder.
Connections have been patient with this lad as he only made his debut in August but he
showed he learned plenty from that first run with the victory at Kilbeggan. There should
be further improvement to come from him when he’s stepped up in trip.
MAKITORIX – (W Mullins) 4yo
September/October form
16th Sept; 1st of 8, Maiden Hurdle, Listowel
Notes - Possibly the most impressive youngster on the list given the manner of his 18L
romp at Listowel back in September. He’s another that Mullins picked up from the flat
last autumn and then had him gelded and given time to strengthen up at home before
being unleashed this season.
He had the Listowel race wrapped up around 3 or 4 furlongs out when Ruby Walsh
asked him to quicken on and seal the deal, which is exactly what the horse did, in the
manner of a very exciting prospect indeed. He was OK on the flat but the switch to
Mullins and Hurdles has really unlocked his potential and he looks to have the speed to
stay at 2 miles whilst also hinting that 2m4f/f5 should be within range this season as
well. He’s simply a very exciting prospect.
Now onto those Novice Chasers…
Novice Chasers
MISS EYECATCHER – (RJ McGrath) 6yo
September/October form
10th Sept; 1st of 6, Novice Chase, Listowel
3rd of Oct; 1st of 4 Novice Chase, Tipperary
Notes - This well-built mare has really kicked on since going over fences in August and
the impression she made with her debut second at Killarney has very much been built
on in her two subsequent starts, both of which were victories.
Her trainer, Roger Joseph McGrath, doesn’t have that many horses at his disposal but in
this 6yo daughter of King’s Theatre he could well have one to take on the big boys with.
Whether, ultimately, she is up to the very top levels is open for debate but the manner in
which she has travelled and jumped on her three chasing starts to dates indicates she is
well above average and the fact she is with a small yard shouldn’t put anyone off.

35. RATHVINDEN – (W Mullins) 9yo
September/October form
16th Sept; 1st of 4, Novice Chase, Listowel
1st October; 1st of 7, Grade 3 Novice Chase, Tipperary
Notes - This 9yo has been busy this summer, running six times, winning four and
placing in the other two. It has been his last two starts, however, that have really
confirmed he was back to somewhere near the promise of his 3rd in the Neptune
Novices’ Hurdle at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival, behind none other than the monster
that is Faugheen.
Rathvinden clearly had issues off the back of that run as it was another 2 ½ years before
he made it on a racetrack again, and that run hardly went to plan given that he was
pulled-up after the 5th fence.
All that, thankfully, seems behind him now and despite his relatively advancing years,
certainly with regards to him being a novice chaser, he does look like he could be a
player in some of the Graded Novice Chases set to be run over the winter in Ireland.
BALLYANDY – (N Twiston-Davies) 6yo
September/October form
28th Sept; 1st of 4, Class 3 Novice Chase, Perth
Notes - Twiston-Davies is never scared to send his stable stars and promising novices
out early in the season and that was again in evidence with this lad as he started his
chasing career with victory at Perth on the 28th of September. It may have only been a
small field that day but he was taking on Fagan from the Gordon Elliott yard who
already had chasing experience (winning experience) in the bank.
Ballyandy was a shade novicey at times but he warmed to his task as the race
progressed and showed a fine battling quality in the closing stages to win by a length.
He’s always looked like a chaser in the making so the fact he only won one of his five
hurdle starts last season shouldn’t be a concern.
The Perth victory was a solid starting block for him and although I wouldn’t necessarily
expect him to run up an unbeaten sequence over fences, the Twiston-Davies novice
chasers rarely do such a thing, he does look the type to have a decent race or two in him
at some stage this season and, hopefully, be a force yet again at the end of season
festivals.
ACCORD – (D Bridgewater) 7yo
September/October form

36. 7th October; 1st of 8, Class 4 Novice Handicap Chase, Fontwell
Notes - David Bridgewater took full advantage of his 7yo’s lenient handicap mark
(started his chasing career off OR 118) by sending him to a Fontwell Novice Handicap
Chase at the start of October, where the lightly raced son of Arcadio put in an
exemplary round of jumping to win by a going away 4L. He was 0/4 in his Novice
Hurdle season but was a winning point to pointer and always looked like the type to
improve for chasing.
The Fontwell race was also his first over further than 2m2.5f and there is every reason
to believe that 3m+ could well be within range for him and bring about even further
improvement.
SCEAU ROYAL – (A King) 5yo
September/October form
5th October; 1st of 5, Class 4 Novice Chase, Warwick
Notes - Some of the jumps this youngster put in during the early part of his chasing
debut were simply electric, so much so his jockey, Daryll Jacob, had to reign him in for
the remainder of the race just to teach him to settle a bit better and measure his jumps
with a bit less aggression.
The quick jumping and the fact Jacob was smart enough to make sure he was able to
learn plenty from his opening race will be a huge benefit for the youngster for the
remainder of the season and although I have an inkling that he may just find the very
top of the tree, Grade 1 races, a bit too hot for him, like he did over hurdles, there is
every chance he will be successful up to and including Grade 2 contests.
He is very similar to connections Top Notch, in that he’s a small, tough battler who is
quick jumper but maybe just isn’t quite a G1 animal, and it would be no surprise to see
him tread a similar path throughout his novice season.
There are many reasons why a horse may be out earlier in the season than others but as
punters we certainly shouldn’t dismiss the form as weak or that the horse(s) in question
are not going to continue winning as the season progresses.
It’s difficult to know exactly where the horses in this report will ultimately end up come
seasons end but I’d be hopeful of plenty wins coming from them throughout the
following months.
Don’t dismiss early season form just because they were out on the track before the main
players were up and running.
Ben Aitken (NTF)

37. Join me at the NTF Website - www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk
Follow me on Twitter - @Narrowthefield

39. Racing’s Dark Arts: Finding Winners in
the Parade Ring
You study the form, you might listen to William Hill Racing Radio, you might watch
Racing UK or ATR or have an afternoon or evening at the races. But when you go
racing, how much time do you spend looking at the horses in the Parade Ring or pre-
parade ring and do you know what you’re looking for or do you tend to spend the time
before the race in the nearest bar or champagne lawn.
This month’s article looks at what some pundits see as one of the “dark arts” of the
sport that of paddock watching. I will hopefully provide you with some of the basic
concepts to be able to read a racehorse; identify the positive and, of course just
importantly, the negative things to look in the parade ring and show that it’s not a
difficult task when you know what you’re looking for. That knowledge combined with
your form or statistical analysis can give you a serious edge over other punters and help
you select more winners and maybe avoid a few losers.
Some of you reading this will be experienced paddock watchers already and if that’s the
case most of what you are about to read will be covering familiar ground but for the
beginner it will hopefully provide a short introduction to the topic. Now I realise we are
dealing with a subjective discipline here and my opinion can differ from someone else’s
but if you follow the basics I am about to outline It hopefully help to at the very least
get more out of the sport.

40. Before I begin I want to briefly mention who I consider one of the best paddock
watchers in the business Ken Peterson who is the course paddock man with William
Hill Radio. His comments are often insightful, particularly when it comes to races with
lots of unraced two-year-olds. At this time of year his paddock comments can be
invaluable with horses starting to go in their coats particularly the fillies. If you haven’t
listened to Ken on the radio I suggest you do as you will gain plenty of insights from
listening to him.
Horses Are Just ‘Flesh and Blood’
The form of the horse is obviously very important when it comes to finding selections,
but looking at horses in the parade ring can also be a path to finding plenty of winners
and conversely avoiding plenty of losers.
Horses are mammals like us and just like us they have their own personalities and like
us they have their off days, some are no longer in love with the game, some maybe
showing signs of racing fatigue, some just look like they would rather be back home in
their nice stable box than do anything as taxing as running as fast as they can in a race
with another group of horses.
Then you have horses that can’t wait to get onto the track and race; they show their love
for racing in the way that they conduct themselves in the run up to a race. Go to the
paddock before a race and you will see both positive and negative attributes on show.
The horse who is interested in racing will come into the paddock looking at the crowd.
It’s probably obvious but interested and happy horses have more success on the
racecourse.
Things to Look For In the Paddock:
So you’re by the side of the parade ring watching the horses as they round with their
handlers so what should you be looking for? I think there are three important things to
look out for: What does the horse look like? What’s its condition? And finally what’s its
behaviour like?
1. What Does the Horse Look Like? - Let’s start by looking at the horses head.
Head – Watch how the horse carries its head. Is the head up? Are its eyes looking
around? What about its eyes? Can you see too much white about them? A horse
normally shows the whites of its eyes when it fears something. Now if the horse in
question is having its first start then that wouldn’t be too much of a negative but for
more experienced horses its would be a negative.
Ears – Are the horses ears pricked? Even better are they moving towards the sounds,
showing that it’s interested in what going on around it?

41. Are the horses ears pinned back? If they are this can be a sign that that it’s not in a good
mood and will probably not give its best running. Likewise if the horse’s ears look limp
and flop then it can be a sign that it’s not feeling 100% and once again will probably not
give its best in the race.
Tails - A horse will hold its tail close to its hindquarters for many reasons. For example;
fillies or mares may do it because they feel threatened. But a flat looking tail can also be
indication that the horse is not in the best of health. Horses with good energy levels
usually have an arched tail.
2. What’s Its Body Type? - Is the horse well balanced? Ideally it will have a square
form does the head fit together with the overall frame of the horse? It’s worth bearing in
mind if one part of the body looks much stronger than the rest that would be a negative
for me. What you want to see is good muscle definition, a well developed rump and
hind legs as they are the horse’s engine.
In the parade ring you will see horses of all shapes and sizes. For a 5f or 6f sprint what
you want to see is a horse with a big barrel like chest, which allow for a good set of
lungs, and strong hind quarters. These types can take a few runs to get fully race fit and
their fitness levels are not always apparent.
Other horses are tall and leggy they tend run better on flat galloping tracks like
Doncaster and can often struggle at undulating or very tight tracks. Where as smaller
more compact horse can be better suited to a tight turning track like Chester. The more
lightly framed horses look leaner and have a longer back. These light framed leggy
horses are able to cover more ground with their longer strides, and thus able to stay
longer distances.
Unlike the big sprinting types they are easier to get fit and their fitness levels can more
easily be seen by the eye.
These types of horse shouldn’t be confused with a weak looking horse. These tend to be
much smaller in stature, they tend to be narrow behind the saddle, have a narrow chest
and smaller hind quarters. The early season two-year old races can be very instructive in
this regard. What you want to see is the biggest strongest horse as they will have the
strength to push through their weaker rivals.
3. What’s Its Condition Like?
Coat - Arguably the best guide to a horses well being and health is the condition of its
coat. It’s easier in summer to notice a horses coat but even in the winter months you can
tell if a horse is in good health and in peak condition. A shiny, glossy coat is a good
indicator of a horse’s health. An even better indicator of horses well being is a shiny
dappled coat is something you really want to see.

42. You will notice the dappling by gleaming circles which can be seen just under the skin.
Just like us humans if the horse looks good it will probably be feeling good. One trainer
who is noted for having her horses well turned out looking good is Venetia Williams.
When your at the track and see one of her runners in the paddock you will see what I
mean.
On the flip side, if the horses coat is dull and dry or is of poor colouring then that can be
considered a negative. At this point it’s worth pointing out that the grey horses coat can
be difficult to judge but sometimes you will see a grey horse whose coat is stand out
shiny and if he ticks the other boxes then you have found a horse ready to run a big
race. That said you I would never dismiss a horses chance based purely by what its coat
looks like. Plenty of horses can look fantastic in the parade ring but bomb out in the
race.
Fitness - The unfit horse normally has a big stomach or a bit of a tummy. The muscles
will look soft and there will be a lack of muscle in the hind quarters. Both of these are
indications that the horse is not fit and ready to win and will need a race or two to find
winning form. This is particularly important when looking at longer distance horse they
need to show plenty of muscle definition in the hind quarters and be showing a ‘hint of
rib’. It’s important at this stage to stress but it’s all about how that muscling is defined.
A well defined chest is usually a good sign of a horse’s fitness. The over raced horse, a
horse that has a hard season, or the horse that has been overtrained will also show a lack
of condition this is usually signified by being light behind the saddle.
4. What’s its Behaviour Like?
As I mentioned earlier you want to see an alert and interested horse. The horse that’s
turning its head toward the handler is a positive sign, as is a horse that’s on its toes, it
seems to be almost dancing not too much though, and this is particularly a positive for a
horse in a sprint race. A horse running over a longer distance should be more relaxed
but once again should still be alert and interested in their surroundings. In juvenile races
with many of the runners having their first start noisy horses should be avoided as either
their focus is not on the race to be run or they are just to immature to run their race.
Some horses will enter the paddock looking nervous this will show on their face, there
head will be much lower and their overall body language will indicate a timid or
submissive horse. This type of horse won’t be striding out to win their race and will not
go for those little gaps when the race really gets going. Some older horses on a long
losing run will carry their heads low.
They will seem almost sleepy and just seem to plod around the ring. They won’t show
any interest on what’s going around them. You can almost guarantee these old boys
won’t be exploding out of their lethargy when the race begins.
Is the horse a good walker? While walking is no guarantee of a good galloper, but you
want a horse that has an athletic walk that covers the ground easily.

43. You will notice that they almost bounce along with their handler. They don’t pull the
handler all over the place. They will seem to be enjoying the walk with their handler.
5. Is the Horse Sweating?
A horse sweating in the parade ring or at the start is a contentious subject. Like humans
horses get butterflies in their stomach before a race. As former trainer ‘Taffy’ Williams
once told me “Butterflies are fine... Sweat dripping off their belly, that’s not good.
Horses get nervous from the inside out.” Like humans, horses sweat in particularly in
summer although sweating on a cold January afternoon at Catterick would not be a
good sign. A small amount of sweat on the coat can be a positive sign as it shows the
horse is keen. But if a horse becomes ‘a wash with sweat’ then that can be a negative
sign as the horse could be getting too nervous.
One place you don’t want to see too much sweat on a horse is between the hind legs.
This is said to be a sign of excess adrenaline. That said horses that sweat up do win
races, look at Motivator when winning the 2005 Derby who had sweated up profusely
before the race and put off many punters. So signs of sweating on a horse are not always
a bad thing and of course do not preclude a horse from winning.
6. Other Variables
Many paddock watchers have other particular traits they like, some like to see a horse
with big ears or when the going is soft or heavy they like to see horses with big feet.
Too much head bobbing is not considered a good sign as it could indicate some sort of
pain. Likewise head tossing can mean the horse is angry, and kicking and bucking can
be an indication of anger or fear of danger.
Other things worth noting in the paddock are horse wearing bandages. A horse wearing
bandages may not have injury problems and an even number of bandages is better than
one. Bandage marks on the legs can indicate the trainer doesn’t want the horse to appear
injured and has removed them immediately before the race.
Paddock watching is definitely an art that takes practice but the more you look at
horses, the better you get at it and it may even become your favourite way of picking
winners.
I hope you have found this piece informative and all that’s left is to wish you a
profitable months betting.
Until next time!
John Burke
John Burke is the brains behind the successful Victor Value tipping service you can try
it for just £1 Click Here

45. Tipster Profile
The man behind Early Odds is known as Max and was introduced to the horse racing
betting circuit some ten years ago. Previously a recreational football bettor he was
feeling unfulfilled by his gambling and so opened a Betfair account and found that he
much preferred betting on the horses. The availability of information on horse racing
was the attraction as there was so much more information readily accessible on horse
racing compared to other sports he had looked at.
Most importantly for Max the information was centralised in the main on the Racing
Post, Sporting Life, Timeform etc. For the first time he found himself able to analyse
the data over a long period of time, and this had been missing in the information he had
been looking at for other sports.
The opportunity of betting on horses looked too good to pass and he started
downloading and storing as much data as possible to begin building his own database
from which he would develop software with which to interrogate it.
His success he puts down to his patient approach, his skill of analysing the data in front
of him and a dash of scepticism. The scepticism means he adds in a factor of “worst
case scenario” and if this comes back as a positive then the expectation is there will be a
profit, remaining totally realistic about the levels of returns he can expect. It’s all about
calculating the odds and ideally calculating them better than the bookmakers and
realising where the bookie is out of line.

46. Using sophisticated algorithms most of Max’s work is done within an hour but
maintaining his database and software takes up a lot more of his time.
A simple error in programming can be costly. In the very early days his custom Betfair
bot placed a bet of 500€ instead of 5€ on a horse priced up at 38.00 just before the race.
The horse finished 2nd and was beaten by a nose! A simple wrong decimal place
separator in regional settings was a costly mistake.
In the early days though of course, mistakes were made.
Like many punters he relied on the publicly available ratings rather than creating his
own and he felt that a period of 6 months to 2 years’ worth of data was sufficient to
form a solid opinion. What he had in fact done in those early days was “back fit”.
When he found good returns he would increase his betting bank and then find he would
fall unceremoniously back on his heels and have to start all over again. He soon realised
that a professional approach was needed to his betting bank and that although a talent
for making a well placed bet helps, together with a little originality in your betting,
nothing beats the hard work of learning your trade.
Max has no specific race type he prefers to place his money on, although he will now
stay away from Auction and Selling races and he stays within the UK racing circuit
avoiding the Irish racing, the service offers up approximately 5 tips a day and over 90%
of these are made available the day before the race before 10.00pm in an attempt to
achieve the best prices possible. The remaining 10% of tips are sent at any time prior to
the race off.
In an attempt to ensure that your betting accounts are not restricted he suggests that you
follow these simple rules:
Use moderate and rounded stakes.
Buy slightly lower odds from the bookmakers even if you can get better odds from
somewhere else.
Occasionally place a bet at SP.
Okay so the infamous question, why is he selling his tips?
Firstly he is looking to affirm himself as one of the leading successful tipping services,
it’s all down to pride, but of course additional monies are always appreciated :) Max
says that he can easily earn from horse racing but there are two methods of betting on
horse racing, taking the early odds or placing your bet just before the race (Starting
Prices).

47. For Max the early odds and their value is the key to his success and if he can share that
with others all the better. With profitable results for six consecutive years now; turning
a profit for 138 months out of 144 is a commendable achievement.
You can take advantage of a £1.00 14 day trial of Early Odds by clicking here.
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

48. Take advantage of a £1.00 14 day trial
of Early Odds today!
Join Now!
This offer expires at midnight on November 7th

49. Product Reviews
Four new services are under review this month and we have an update on Lateral
Investment Strategy, Factor Seven Racing and Jeremiah Catskill.
Cost: £57.00 per month / £114.00 per quarter (There is a waiting list to join).
The Trial: A new addition to the Betfan / BetKudos stable it is heralded as a service
which has made 1375 points profit in the last 6 months alone based on live proofing and
more importantly 1 point level stakes!
This means that a simple £10.00 stake would have cleared on average £2,291 each
month! No that is either impressive, or too good to be true.

50. The author, Richard Man advises simple bet to win only and usually on multiple
selections in the race.
It is very early days for our review but two days’ worth of selections has seen 2 or 3 tips
per race and in total 24 selections over 9 races. The tips have produced 3 winners at the
advised odds of between 10/3 and 15/2 and an overall loss of just short of 6.50 points
(almost 11.50 points to Betfair SP after allowing 5% commission).
Conclusion: Early days and a watching brief. You can find out more here.
Cost: £10.00 for the first month then £20.00 per month thereafter.
The Trial: A service provided by a group of racing enthusiasts from the North East of
England they offer a 10 day no quibble money back guarantee if you find that the
service isn’t for you and in addition they will also guarantee an ROI of at least 10%
based on their advised odds.
Again we are in the very early days with this review but we have received 7 tips (the
evening before the days racing) two of which won their races at 6/1 and 8/1 (advised)
with SPs of 3/1 and 7/2.
We need to monitor closely how achievable the advised prices are.
Conclusion: Too early to tell. You can find out more here.
Cost: £44.00 + VAT per month / £88.00 + VAT per quarter
The Trial: Another early review in its early stages but 48 selections so far have
produced 12 winner and a profit to simple 1 point level stakes of just over 33 points.

51. Even based on SP you would have achieved 18 points profit.
Well pleased!
Conclusion: Looking good. Keep it up. Find out more here.
Cost: £1.00 + VAT Special Offer (Subsequent months £39.95)
The Trial: A double is usually tipped up every day, but on occasions there will be 3
matches covered in 3 doubles. Our actual results achieved to date are 29 winning bets
from 51 doubles at prices of 1.20/1 to 2/1 and a profit of just over 18.50 points.
Achieving the prices they advise has been almost impossible but if you had they are
quoting 29 points profit.
Conclusion: The jury’s out, but in the meantime you can find out more here.
Cost: £70.00 + VAT every 28 days / £120.00 + VAT every quarter or £197.00 + VAT
every 6 months.
The Trial: This service continued to struggle during our latest month even though it
delivered a healthy strike rate of 42%.
15 back single bets returned 3 winners at advised odds between 11/8 and 13/5
16 lay bets of which 10 were winning bets at Betfair Starting Prices of between 2.19 and
3.55.

52. Overall return – a loss of 5 points to advised back odds and allowing for 5%
commission on the successful lay bets.
Over our three month period we are showing a total loss of 19 points based on 1 point
level stakes.
Conclusion: Promised much but delivered little. You can find out more here.
Cost: £24.00 per month + VAT / Quarterly £48.00 + VAT
The Trial: Another service with a poor latest month with 11 winners from 65 bets and a
loss of almost 10 points however in total over the three month period we have made a
profit of almost 43 points with 37 winning bets from 185 selections, a 23% return on
investment. The problem though is that based on SP we would have made a loss of 4
points.
The service has tried to land “the big one” by including 32 multiple bets all of which
have lost. If we ignore those then our figures are greatly improved and are even
noteworthy at SP.
Our main concern though is that 94 points of the profit came from 5 larger priced
winners so the losing runs are pretty hefty.
Conclusion: If you can stomach long losing runs you may well turn a good profit but
for us it isn’t a comfortable fit. You can find out more here.
Cost: Pay As You Go Registration £5.00 / 6 Months £199.00

53. The Trial: A good latest month for us with a couple of big priced winners landed which
saw a healthy profit of 72 points. Our total profit so far amounts to almost 85 points
including a 14/1 winner which was disqualified and giving us an ROI of 20%.
With the service charging £1.60 per point of profit the benefit is no profit no fees.
Conclusion: Find out more here
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

54. Tipster Top Ten
1. Bundesliga Correct Score – SR 11% ROI 94%
It would be easy to get carried away by the ROI on this service but it is best not to get
too excited. This ROI is thanks to a correct score prediction at odds of 36.00 on the
Borussia Dortmund v RB Leipzig match on 14th October. In fairness prices generally
are around 6.50-14.00 so it may well be that the author knew something others didn’t?
Find out more about the service here
2. The Strict Rule System – SR 35% ROI 60%
An improved strike rate and ROI for last month’s leader board header and since mid-
July this service has been producing results which have seen its profits on the up and up.
With average odds of just over 8.00 the prices are realistic enough to hit regular winners
and big enough to return a healthy profit.
Find out more about the service here
3. Sprint From The Front – SR 24% ROI 56%
The Sprint From The Front service for the winter period will be moving over to All
Weather tipping so whether the tips will be as successful as the flat service remains to
be seen. If it is then we should expect some healthy steady results. There was a minor
wobble in September but profits were soon recovered and more besides.
Find out more about the service here

55. 4. Each Way Hits – SR 31% ROI 39%
A fall in the strike rate but an improved ROI see Each Way Hits climb the table this
month. September ended with a bang with 3 wins from 4 selections on 29th September
priced between 13/2 and 20/1. The 20/1 shot My Direction winning on the Dundalk All
Weather. At the time of writing October however is on a heavy downward slope but
they still have a couple of weeks to turn things around.
Find out more about the service
5. AWesome Racing – SR 25% ROI 38%
Awesome racing were doing pretty Awsomely with September seeing a 60% ROI but as
is often the case a correction was due an although still in profit October is currently
running at an ROI of 3% with just 5 points profit for the month to date (16th).
Find out more about the service
6. Lucky 7 Naps – SR 23% ROI 35%
It seems that Lucky 7 Naps is becoming a regular visitor to the table. October got off to
a healthy start with winners such as Maguire’s Glen 13/2, Kayf Adventure 9/2 and
Nemean Lion 9/1, but the second week has seen profits plateau. Than in itself is no bad
thing in that they are maintaining the current profit levels and not losing.
Find out more about the service
7. Winners Galore – SR 44% ROI 65%
Winners Galore comes from the stable at Bet Kudos and has been showing excellent
results August saw profits of 70+ points, with September at 90+ points and October to
date initially getting off to a flyer with 27 points in the back in the first 10 days. There
has since been a correction but nothing major and so things are looking on track for
another good month.
Find out more about the service
8. Andy Bell Racing – SR 42% ROI 39%
We have seen Andy Bell Racing before so it is good to see a return to form. September
was a bit of a rollercoaster but still closed up almost 40 points, while October is flying
thanks to a couple of really good wins from the likes of Chough 8/1 and Withhold 12/1.
Find out more about the service
9. Sean Haren Racing - Strike Rate 26% ROI 26%
Another returning service is Sean Haren racing. August profits were really all down to
one big winning day on 26th but with some 24 selections being placed that day this
service may not be for everyone. September was a particularly rollercoaster style month
but still closing with 28 points profit, while October has seen a good early start to the
month.
Find out more about the service here

56. 10. High Stakes Racing – SR 35% ROI 18%
August produced a steady profit but September closed on a complete flyer when landing
the 20/1 shot Pastamakesusfaster. October got off to a terrible start and had you
commenced with the service from the 1st October you would have found yourself more
than 70 points down by Friday 13th! However, commitment to anything is the key and
on 14th the service managed to turn things completely around and are now just sitting at
the breakeven point for the month and on their way back in to the black.
Find out more about the service
© 2017 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd