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Public Lecture Slides (5.17.2017) Analysis of the French Elections


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Analysis of the French Elections

Régis Arnaud
Guillaume Gerondeau
Benjamin Lasry (joined by live video)

ICAS public lecture series videos are posted on Youtube:

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Public Lecture Slides (5.17.2017) Analysis of the French Elections

  1. 1. The 2017 French presidential election Benjamin Lasry Tokyo and London, May 17, 2017 The panelist is speaking in his personal capacity, not on behalf of any firm.
  2. 2. An unprecedented election by many accounts • Election should have been a slam-dunk for conservatives… until “Penelopegate” • First time that both candidates of major parties are eliminated in first round: conservative François Fillon (Les Républicains) and Socialist Benoît Hamon (Parti Socialiste) • Winner is a 39 year-old who had never held elected office and whose party, En Marche!, celebrated its first birthday in April • New four-way fragmentation of French political landscape Charente Libre, Ouest France
  3. 3. What does Macron’s election mean for the world? The EU and euro are safe… for now
  4. 4. Bucking the tide of Brexit andTrump • Emmanuel Macron’s victory: particularly impressive with older and young demographics • Le Pen did better with men than with women (likeTrump). Macron performed better with women (like Clinton). • Unlike Brexit andTrump last year, older voters voted decidedly against the populist option (Le Pen’s plan to leave the euro = losing your savings…) • The toxicity of the « Le Pen brand » was still apparent IPSOS/Game Changers/Sopra Steria
  5. 5. “Rust belt” east vs. west divide First round (11 candidates) Second round (Macron vs. Le Pen) Les Echos, Le Monde
  6. 6. The far-right vote and unemployment Bloomberg
  7. 7. Macron’s “urban firewall” and strong vote transfers… Le Monde, FinancialTimes
  8. 8. … and Le Pen’s support in rural France Macron (orange) and Le Pen (black) Le Monde
  9. 9. The “republican front”: weaker than in 2002 • In 2002 run-off, Jacques Chirac defeated Jean-Marie Le Pen with 82.2% of the votes. What has happened since? • Marine Le Pen started “de-demonizing” the party in 2011 • Far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon refused to say whether he would cast a blank ballot or vote for Macron in run-off • Les Républicains were also split on how to react to « Hollande Junior » vs. Le Pen • Globalization vs. Populism is a new fracture AFP
  10. 10. Accuracy of polls was striking • Going back to the 1990s, although first round polls have had some major mistakes (e.g.April 21, 2002), their prediction of the actual victor has always been correct • Real risk event in 2017 was the first round: four-way race, two parties which were about a year old (En Marche! and La France Insoumise), 25% undecided until the final days… • The second round polls were so wide (Macron typically 20 points ahead) that there was never a significant risk that Le Pen would catch up Le Monde
  11. 11. Thank you for listening!