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Old answers to new questions? The future of social housing in the UK
1. April 19@resfoundation 1#UKSkills
Old answers to new questions?
The future of social housing in the UK
Kate Henderson, Chief Executive of the National Housing Federation
Marvin Rees, Mayor of Bristol
Lindsay Judge, Senior Research and Policy Analyst at the Resolution Foundation
Robert Colvile, Director of the Centre for Policy Studies
Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation (Chair)
2. April 19@resfoundation 2
Old answers to new questions?
The future of social housing in the UK
April 2019
#socialhousing
3. 3
Home ownership rates of young people fell by half between 1989-
2016
Proportion of family units aged 25-34 owning a home: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Family Expenditure Survey 1961-1983; Labour Force Survey 1984-2018
4. 4
Young people have experienced just as large a fall in rates of
social renting
Proportion of family units aged 25-34 renting socially: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Family Expenditure Survey 1961-1983; Labour Force Survey 1984-2018
5. 5
The rise and fall of social renting
Proportion of family units renting socially: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Family Expenditure Survey 1961-1983; Labour Force Survey 1984-2018
6. 6
The rise and fall of social renting
Proportion of family units renting socially: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Family Expenditure Survey 1961-1983; Labour Force Survey 1984-2018
7. 7
The rise and fall of social renting
Proportion of family units living in social rented homes: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Family Expenditure Survey 1961-1983; Labour Force Survey 1984-2018
8. 8
The rise and fall of social renting
Proportion of family units living in social rented homes: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Family Expenditure Survey 1961-1983; Labour Force Survey 1984-2018
9. 9
A growing share of children are born, and growing up, in the
private rented sector
Proportion of individuals living in the private rented sector by age: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Labour Force Survey 1996 & 2018
10. 10
A growing share of children are born, and growing up, in the
private rented sector
Proportion of individuals living in the private rented sector by age: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Labour Force Survey 1996 & 2018
11. 11
A growing share of children are born, and growing up, in the
private rented sector
Proportion of individuals living in the private rented sector by age: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Labour Force Survey 1996 & 2018
12. 12
A growing share of children are born, and growing up, in the
private rented sector
Proportion of individuals living in the private rented sector by age: GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Labour Force Survey 1996 & 2018
13. 13
Housing stress is almost twice as high in the private rented sector
as the social sector
Proportion of families (benefit units) spending more than one-third of income on housing costs (net HB): GB
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Family Resources Survey, 1994/95 - 2016/17
Note: Year refers to main year in financial year (e.g. 2016=2016/17)
14. 14
Homes in the social sector are half as likely to fail decency
standards as those in the private rented sector
Proportion of homes designated non-decent: England
@resfoundationSource: English Housing Survey Headline report, 2017-2018, AT 2.2
15. 15
‘Benefits to bricks’ is a long game
Proportion of pensioner-headed family units by tenure
@resfoundationSource: RF, forthcoming
16. 16
‘Benefits to bricks’ is a long game
Proportion of pensioner-headed family units by tenure
@resfoundationSource: RF, forthcoming
17. 17
‘Benefits to bricks’ is a long game
Proportion of pensioner-headed family units by tenure
@resfoundationSource: RF, forthcoming
18. 18
‘Benefits to bricks’ is a long game
Proportion of pensioner-headed family units by tenure
@resfoundationSource: RF, forthcoming
19. 19
‘Benefits to bricks’ is a long game
Proportion of pensioner-headed family units by tenure
@resfoundationSource: RF, forthcoming
20. 20
Does social renting have an employment effect?
Work status of social renters and non-social renters, 2014-2018: UK
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Labour Force Survey 2014-2018
21. 21
Does social renting have an employment effect?
Work status of social renters and non-social renters, 2014-2018: UK
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of Labour Force Survey 2014-2018
22. 22
Looking to the Spending Review
Affordable homes commitments, 2008-2020
@resfoundationSource: RF analysis of UK Housing Review and Budget documents
23. April 19@resfoundation 23
Old answers to new questions?
The future of social housing in the UK
April 2019
#socialhousing
Editor's Notes
Might seem perverse to start a SH event with a chart on home ownership but this is the issue that has animated the politics of housing more than any other in recent years
Fall in SR for YP does not attract anything like the same attention
Part of reason not framed as an intergenerational issue is because population writ large has witnessed the same decline in SR rates
We estimate that if the same proportion of families today were SRs as were in the period 1961-1981, an additional 3.8 million families would rent socially
In fact, that picture underestimates the number of families
What are those 5.4 million families missing out on?
1 in 13 babies born in PRS in 1996, today 1 in 4
Similar proportion of children start school living in PRS
Retirement – 2018 5% compared to 2% in 1996
Optimistic HO scenario
Longstanding objection to SR is that it has a downward effect on employment
On face of it, considerable gap
Significant chunk explained by inactivity
Controlling for personal characteristics…
Things we don’t have in the equation – and possibly things we can’t measure
Later in week exploring question further and also considering the importance of place, which has implications for the question of where we should be build new social homes