The document provides analysis on the gold price forecast in relation to upcoming central bank decisions from the ECB and data releases on US GDP growth. It discusses technical analysis showing gold in an ascending triangle pattern on 4-hour charts with bulls targeting a break above $1835. Upcoming economic indicators and central bank signals on monetary policy normalization could impact gold prices in either direction near term.

1. Gold Price Forecast

2. Points To Be Discussed Today:
• XAU/USD Looks North With Eyes On ECB, US Q3
GDP
• Gold Teases Descending Triangle On The 4H Chart
• Gold Bulls Remains The Pattern Target
• The XAU/USD Back Above
• Gold (XAU/USD) Flirts
• Gold Analysis: Reaches Above 1,800.00
• Intraday Market Analysis: Gold Seeks Support
• Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
• XAUUSD Chart

3. XAU/USD Looks North With Eyes On
ECB, US Q3 GDP
• Gold price is building onto Wednesday’s
recovery in the lead-up to the European
Central Bank (ECB) decision and the US
Q3 GDP release.
• In the view of FXStreet’s Dhwani
Mehta, risks appear skewed to the
upside for XAU/USD.

4. Gold Teases Descending Triangle On
The 4H Chart
• “Investors turn cautious and seek shelter in
the traditional safe-haven gold, awaiting the
ECB outcome for clues on whether they would
consider tightening monetary policy earlier
than thought.”
• “The US Q3 growth figures will provide fresh
signs on economic recovery, with the country
likely to grow 2.7% QoQ vs. a 6.7% jump seen
previously.”

5. Gold’s Four-hour Chart
• “Gold’s four-hour chart shows that the price
has been teasing a descending triangle
breakout, with a candlestick closing above
the falling trendline resistance at $1803
awaited.
• If the upside breakout from the triangle
materializes, then a fresh advance towards
the weekly highs of $1810 cannot be ruled
out

6. Gold Bulls Remains The Pattern Target
• The next goal for gold bulls remains the pattern
target measured at $1835, where the September
month highs coincide.”
• “The 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1798
will be the immediate cushion, below which the
daily lows of $1794 could get retested.
• A sharp drop towards the bullish 50-SMA at
$1787 will be on the cards if the latter caves in.”

7. XAU/USD Retakes $1,800, Upside
Potential Limited Ahead Of US GDP
• Gold consolidates weekly losses during two-
day uptrend, eases from daily high of late.
• US dollar differs from firmer Treasury yields,
helps gold buyers amid market’s indecision,
central bank moves.
• US GDP, ECB and US stimulus updates are the
key for fresh impulse.
• Bulls trying to recover the 1,800 mark.

8. The XAU/USD Back Above
• Gold built on the previous day's rebound
from the vicinity of weekly lows and edged
higher through the Asian session on
Thursday.
• The momentum pushed the XAU/USD back
above the $1,800 mark, though a
combination of factors might keep a lid on
any meaningful upside.

9. The US Treasury Bond Yields
• A generally positive tone around the equity
markets could act as a headwind for the safe-
haven precious metal.
• Apart from this, a solid rebound in the US
Treasury bond yields, along with expectations
for an early policy tightening by major central
bank might further collaborate to cap gains for
the non-yielding yellow metal.

10. The Outlook – Amid Worries
• Moreover, investors seem to have moved on the
sidelines ahead of Thursday's key event risk – the
highly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting.
• The ECB is expected to leave its monetary policy
settings unchanged, though the outlook – amid
worries about rising inflationary pressures – should
infuse some volatility in the markets.
• Beyond this, traders will focus on the release of the
Advance US Q3 GDP report.
• The data will play a key role in driving the USD demand
and influence dollar-denominated commodities,
including gold.

11. Gold (XAU/USD) Flirts
• Gold (XAU/USD) flirts with the $1,800 threshold, keeps
the previous day’s rebound amid softer USD during
early Thursday.
• The yellow metal recovered the previous day from the
weekly bottom as the US dollar faded the bounce off a
one-month low, tracking the US Treasury yields.
• The latest run-up in the gold prices, however, could be
linked to the market’s fears of an end to the easy
money policies introduced during the pandemic.
• It’s worth noting that the hopes of US stimulus and
Sino-American tussles are extra catalysts that helped
the gold buyers at the latest.

12. Gold Fundamental Overview
• Spiking short-term US Treasury yields amid increasing
bets of Fed’s monetary policy normalization, in the
face of strengthening economic recovery, leading to
the flattening of the yield curve.
• As the yield curve flattens, it also re-ignites stagflation
fears amid the persistence of rising price pressures
globally, which is possibly keeping the buoyant tone
intact around the traditional safe-haven gold price.
• However, gold bulls remain cautious and refrain from
placing any fresh bets ahead of the key event risks for
this week.

13. The Balance Of Risks Appears To Be
Siding With A Nascent Bull
• “Gold is quietly making a bullish inverse head-
and-shoulders since June – thus the nascent
gold bull is quietly knocking at the door.
• The neckline stands around $1830, for that
pattern to take off.
• A secondary confirmation probably requires
gold to surmount and sustain over the weekly
Ichimoku’ cloud fringe resistance at $1873.

14. Gold Analysis: Reaches Above 1,800.00
• The price of gold found enough support in the
200-hour simple moving average to surge and
pass the 1,800.00 level together with the 55
and 100-hour simple moving averages, which
strengthened the round price level.
• On Thursday morning, the price was testing
the resistance of the 1,805.00 level.

15. Gold Analysis: Reaches Above 1,800.00 - I
• If the price continues to surge, it would most
likely test the resistance of the 1,810.00 level,
which reversed the metal's recovery on Monday.
• On the other hand, a decline of the metal could
find support in the combination of the 55 and
100-hour simple moving averages above the
1,795.00 level.
• Below the 1,795.00, the 200-hour SMA at
1,786.00 might once again act as a support level.

16. Intraday Market Analysis: Gold Seeks
Support
• Gold treads water as markets await a slew of central
bank decisions in the coming days.
• The recent break above the daily resistance at 1805 is a
prerequisite for a bullish turnaround.
• However, the rally has met stiff selling pressure at the
supply zone around 1813 which is at the origin of the
September sell-off.
• Along with a repeatedly overbought RSI, a combination
of profit-taking and fresh selling may weigh on the
precious metal in the short term. 1777 is the
immediate support and its breach would send the price
to 1760.

17. XAU/USD Consolidates Gains

18. Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar

19. XAUUSD Chart

20. Gold Price Forecast

21. Thanks for listening
Gold Price Forecast