This document discusses a potential "Epic Pluvial" masking water insecurity in the greater New York City region based on 500 years of drought history in eastern New York State. It presents tree ring chronology data from 32 tree species that shows a long-term trend of wetter conditions in the Northeast U.S. since the 16th century. This long hydroclimate record provides important historical context for water management and planning for the New York City region.

1. NYC & an Epic Pluvial
NYC & an Epic Pluvial

3. Regional Streamflow Extremes – southern NY State
Matonse (CUNY) & Frei (Hunter College), in prep

4. Seager et al., 2012 – Journal of Climate

5. Is an Epic Pluvial Masking the Water Insecurity of the
Greater New York City Region?
Andrew Bell Ed Cook Manu Lall Naresh Devineniichard Seagereith Eggleston
R K Kevin Vranes

6. 500 Years of Drought history in Eastern New York State
Hudson Estuary, Sept 2011 Context for the 2000’s

8. 12 species
eastern hemlock
chestnut oak
pitch pine
white oak
eastern
redcedar
32 chronologies post oak
pignut hickory
sweet birch
yellow-poplar
shagbark hickory
northern red oak
black oak

10. r2 = 66.2%
May-Aug
- Better at estimating wet years

12. inst.
data
tacked
onto
end

14. NE/NYC Hydroclimatic History:
1531-2011

15. NE/NYC Hydroclimatic History:
1531-2011

17. Eastern US Hydroclimatic History: 1500-2006

18. 1568-1573 Drought: NADA v2

20. Seager et al., 2012 – Journal of Climate

21. Potential Driver of Centennial-scale Hydroclimatic Trend
Li et al., 2011
Clim. Dynamics

22. Less interested in PDSI?

24. 500 Years of Drought history in Eastern New York State
Context for the 2000’s and beyond?