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Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the IER
Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the IER
Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the IER
Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the IER
Kyiv, October 11, 2023
“Don’t worry. Stay calm”
Main economic trends in September 2023
based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
ABOUT THE NEW RAPID ENTERPRISES SURVEY
Monthly survey
SAMPLE: 534
enterprises were
surveyed in August
Enterprises of
all sizes
Geography: 21
out of 27 regions
of Ukraine
Sectors: Industry +
(Retail, Agro)
17 surveys have
already been
conducted (since
May 2022)
The recent data were
collected
on September 18 - 29, 2023
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Main results 1
War-related risks are becoming a
significant factor in the business
environment
Business expectations in the
short-term perspective remain
high, although the pace of
recovery in production has
slowed somewhat
Businesses rely on themselves
and need more business-friendly
regulatory policies
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Main results 2. Uncertainty
Uncertainty in the 6-month
perspective gradually continues
to decrease
Uncertainty in the 3-month
perspective decreased slightly
after three months of growth
Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective
remains without changes
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Main results 3: business activity, production,
export indicators
6 months’ expectations regarding
enterprises’ business activity and the
overall economic environment
remained quite high and positive
The share of enterprises operating at
almost full and at full capacity
decreased a bit (55% vs 57% in August),
BARI is high but has decreased
Production performance vs previous
months slightly improved, while 3-
months expectations decreased
Rate of growth of export past
performance and expectations
decreased
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Main results 4: impediments, economic policy
The “dangerous to work” reached
the 2nd place on the List of
impediments to doing business
The interruption in electricity
remains at 6th position on the List
of impediments to doing business
% of uncertainty in assessments of
the government’s economic policy
decreased, while neutral
assessments increased again
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Ent/2
023)
Impediments to
doing business
in wartime
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
The main impediments to doing business in wartime, % respondents
There are significant changes in list of
impediments are observed in September
compared to August 2023
• Despite holding the 1st place, the impediment
“rising prices for raw materials and goods” has
lost a quarter of its importance in September
• NB! “It is dangerous to work” holds the 2nd
place, sharply moving up from the 6th and
increasing in values from 33% to 40%.
• In September “lack of personnel” reached the
3rd rank by moving up from the 5th in August and
increasing the value from 35% to 37%
• Problems with logistics moved down from the
2nd to the 3rd place for the first time in several
months
• “Electricity interruptions”, despite the slight
lowering of their value from 34% to 32%,
remained at the 6th place
• Corruption and pressure from law enforcement
agencies still are not significant problems
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Interruptions of
electricity remain a
problem
New Monthly Ent/2
023)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
”Electricity” still remains an impediment
to doing business
• In September 2023, the percentage
of the respondents who indicated
electricity and water supply as
impediment to doing business
slightly decreased
• In the list of obstacles, interruptions
in electricity remained at the 5th
place
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
12% 12% 11%
5% 4%
51%
78% 80% 79%
68%
46%
29%
32%
37%
32% 34% 32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
Interruptions with electricity as impediment for doing bussiness, % of
repondents
“It is
dangerous to
work”
became a
more
pressing
problem
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
The importance of “it is dangerous to work” as an
impediment to doing business increased
• In September 2023, the share of
enterprises that reported that it was
dangerous to work increased from
33% to 40%
• In the list of obstacles, “it is dangerous
to work“ moved from 6th to 2nd place
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
34%
30%
27%
26%
18%
33%
46%
47%
39% 40%
31%
25%
32%
31%
33% 33%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
"It is dangerous to work", % of respondents
“It is dangerous to work” in different dimensions
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
"It is dangerous to work" by oblast, % of respondents
• % of enterprises that chose “it is dangerous to
work“ increased in spite of the size group
• 80+% of respondents in Kharkivska, Cherkaska,
Vinnytska, Poltavska and Dnipropetrovska oblast
consider insecure conditions as an impediment
38% 36% 38%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
up to 10 11--50 51-250 250+
"It is dangerous to work" by the size groups, %
respondents
Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
Changes over
the past year
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Business Activity Recovery Index
(compassion of “now” vs “how it was a year ago“)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
In September, the Business Activity Recovery
Index (BARI, yoy) remained relatively high but
decreased compared to August 2023
This happened:
Due to the decrease in the share of growing
reported enterprises (from 52% to 48%)
At the same time:
• There is no change in the share of drop
reporters (13% vs 12% in August)
• The share of those for whom nothing has
changed has increased (from 36% to 40%)
MICRO: In September vs. August, the value of
the BARI for the micro business remained
unchanged and worsened for other size groups
-0,69 -0,68
-0,74
-0,78
-0,75
-0,02
0,20
0,42 0,44
0,37
0,40
0,35
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Business Activity Recoverн Index
(balance between better/worse
assessments comparing to the previous
year )
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Business Activity Recovery Index
(by size)
Micro Small Medium Large
“Now” vs. “before February 24, 2022”: the recovery of
production is slowing down?
In September 2023 the trends slowdown in
the recovery of production has been kept
• The share of enterprises working at almost
full (75%-99%) and full capacity (100% and
more) has been gradually lowering three
months in a row (from 62% in June to 59%
in July, 57% in August and 56% in
September).
At the same time:
• both, % of enterprises operating at full
capacity (100% or more) and % of
enterprises that do not operate at all
remain without changes (respectively 7%
and 8% and 2% and 2%))
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
10 8
4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 2 2
17
14
12
7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4
2 2 1 1 2 2
16
17
16
14
13 16
18
16 16 18
14
14
11 10 12 11 12
26
19
23
33
30
33 27 30 29 25
26
24 27
24
24 28 29
17
30 36
36
41
36 43 44 43 44 47
50 49 53 52
50 48
15 12 10 8 8 8 4 6 5 8 8 9 7 7 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
% of capacity utilization compared to "before February 24,
2022", % of respondents
0% capacity utilzation up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% capacity utilization
Future and
Uncertainty
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Long-term uncertainty remains high and without changes
Expectations in the two-year perspective
Uncertainty in the two-year perspective
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
“It is hard to predict what will be with the activities of our
enterprise in 2 years“, % of answers
% of enterprises that have no idea about their
plans for 2 years didn’t change
• % of enterprises planning to extend activity in 2
years increased (from 23% to 25%)
• % of enterprises planning to lower activity
decreased (from (7.7% to 5.9%)
42,3
54,2
51,9
56
57,4
56
57,7
56,5
60,8
55,0
56,4
56,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
37,5
31,6 30,4 31,6 29,8 28,2 29,7 24,4 23,1 25,9 23,1 25,1
56,3
56,7 60,4 60,8 64,6 66,1 63,4 71,4 74,0 68,2 69,2 69,0
6,3 11,6 9,3 7,5 5,6 5,7 6,9 4,1 2,9 6,0 7,7 5,9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
Yes, I'm planning to extend Planning to stay at the current level Planning to lower activity
Uncertainty in 3-month perspective decreased after three
month of growth
Half-year horizon Three-month horizon
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
% that no answer the questions about 6 months changes on...
No answer on business activity at the enterprise in six month
No answer on economic environment in six month
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Export Production Sales Number of workers New orders
% that no answer about 3 months changes on...
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
6 months perspective: expectations remains are
still highly positive
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Business activity at the enterprise Overall economic environment in the country
-0,36
-0,32
-0,20
-0,22
-0,09
-0,16
-0,33
-0,24
-0,14
-0,11-0,10
-0,02
-0,07
0,00
-0,09
-0,04-0,05
0,07
0,15
0,12
0,03
0,11
-0,09
-0,18
0,01
0,15
0,34
0,48 0,46
0,43
0,46
0,40
0,37
0,39
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Oct.23
Business activity at the enterprise Expected business activity at the enterprise
-0,54
-0,44
-0,37
-0,28
-0,20
-0,31
-0,34
-0,28
-0,20
-0,14
-0,10
-0,07 -0,08
-0,03
-0,09 -0,07 -0,08
0,01
0,16
0,09
0,01
0,12
-0,12
-0,23
0,01
0,11
0,30
0,50
0,43 0,43 0,41
0,38 0,38 0,38
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Oct.23
Current overall economic environment Expected overall economic environment
Enterprises’ past
performances
and expectations
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI)*
ICI has decreased in September compared to August
(from 0.17 to 0.12)
Fluctuations of index component are the following:
• The production expectation (PI) decreased from
0.46 to 0.41
• Component stocks of finished goods (SFG)
increased from -0.18 to -0.10
• Component volume of new orders (VNO)
decreased from -0.14 to -0.16
*ICI= PI+VNO+(-SFG)/3
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
-0,02
0,02
0,05
0,03
0,06
0,04
0,00
0,08
0,13
0,14
0,19
0,14 0,15 0,15
0,12
0,17
0,12
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25 May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Production optimism has a bit decreased
In September vs. August (expectations)
• The share of enterprises planning growth of
production in the next 3-4 months decreased
(from 47.6% in August to 41.7% in September)
• The share of enterprises that planning decrease
in production remained without significant
changes (3.9% vs 2.9% in September)
• The share of enterprises that planning to have
no change in production during the next three
months increased from 48.5% to 55.4%
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Production, balance indicators
-0,55
-0,30
-0,12
-0,09
0,05
-0,03
-0,13 -0,14
-0,04 -0,06
0,18
0,24
0,20 0,20
0,13
0,18 0,21
0,12
0,22 0,24
0,20
0,32
0,17
0,04
0,23
0,33
0,47
0,58
0,45 0,47 0,44 0,43 0,46
0,41
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Oct.23
Production Production exp.
Export: worsened (a bit) past performance and expectations
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
In September vs. August (past performance)
• The share of enterprises reporting growth of export
decreased from 26.1% to 23.9%
• The share of enterprises informing reducing export
also slightly decreased (from 21.0% in August to
19.9% in September)
• The share of enterprises that have no change in
export volumes during the next three months
increased from 52.9% to 56.2%
Export, balance indicators
-0,42
-0,48
-0,31
-0,24-0,21
-0,15
-0,18
-0,11
-0,08-0,09
0,09 0,11
0,06 0,06
-0,01
0,08 0,06
0,07
0,11
0,14 0,12
0,22
0,13
0,00
0,23 0,24
0,33
0,49
0,37 0,37
0,33
0,37 0,38
0,29
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep,23
Oct.23
Export Export exp.
Sales and new orders: optimism is going to erase?
Sales New orders
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
-0,48
-0,36
-0,16
-0,09
0,01
-0,03
-0,14-0,14
-0,02
-0,06
0,18
0,23 0,20 0,18
0,12
0,18 0,19
0,11
0,23 0,23 0,20
0,33
0,19
0,04
0,24
0,32
0,47
0,59
0,46 0,48
0,43 0,44 0,47
0,40
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Oct.23
Sales Sales exp.
-0,52
-0,30
-0,19
-0,020,01
-0,03
-0,11
-0,05
0,02
-0,04
0,20 0,23
0,18
0,14 0,12
0,16 0,15
0,10
0,19
0,25 0,23
0,34
0,21
0,15
0,29
0,33
0,44
0,59
0,45 0,45 0,42 0,41 0,42
0,39
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Oct.23
New orders New orders exp.
The volume of order book has not changed
In September 2023, the volume of
order books for the surveyed
enterprises remained at the previous
level
• The average term for new
orders remains at 2 months
(median) after declining from
three months in January-April
2023
• 53% of enterprises have orders
for up to 2 months. The share
has remained almost without
changes since May 2023
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) 26
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
0%
20%
40%
60%
Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months
6 to 11 months 12 months or more Median
Employment
and labor
market
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Employment: lowering of the number of workers is observed
Number of workers Number of workers on forced leave
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
• % of enterprises planning employment growth in the next 3-4 month
lowered (from 7.0% in August to 3% in September)
• % of enterprises intending to reduce the number of employees almost
unchanged (2.3% in August and 3.0% in September)
• % of enterprises at which no changes in employment are expected
increased from 90.7% to 94.0%
• % of enterprises that will increase the number of employees on forced
leave slightly decrease from 1.3% to 0.7%
• % of enterprises that are going to reduce employees on forced leave
increased from 24.6% in August to 26.9% in September
• % unchanged slightly decreased from 73.6% to 72.3%
-0,54
-0,30
-0,16
-0,09
-0,03
-0,09 -0,08 -0,08 -0,09 -0,09
-0,06 -0,07
-0,03
-0,07 -0,05 -0,03 -0,04
0,01
0,03
0,11
0,04 0,03
-0,02 -0,03
0,00
0,04 0,04 0,06 0,04 0,03
0,00
0,03
0,06
0,00
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov,22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Oct.23
Number of workers Number of workers exp.
0,35
0,05 0,06
0,01 0,00
-0,09
-0,20 -0,20 -0,18
-0,16
-0,19
-0,23 -0,22
-0,26
-0,08 -0,10
-0,22
-0,01
-0,22
-0,14
-0,03
0,02
-0,17
-0,25
-0,28 -0,26
-0,23
-0,26 -0,26
-0,25 -0,28
-0,22
-0,23-0,25
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Oct.23
Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.
Problems in finding unskilled workers are decreasing
Problems with finding workers In September, the problems with finding unskilled workers
are decreasing already several month in a row, while
difficulties with finding unskilled workers almost
unchanged
Skilled workers:
• % of those who reported that it is more difficult to
find such workers almost unchanged (25.4% vs
25.7%). As wells as % of those to whom it is easier
to search for skilled workers (1.2% in August and
1.5% in September)
Unskilled workers:
• % of those who report that it is easy to find them
increased a bit (4.4% in August and 5.7% in
September) while % of those to whom this is harder
almost unchanged (17.6% in August and 18.0% in
September)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
0,24
0,18
0,06
0,09
0,17
0,11
0,12
0,19
0,26
0,14
0,25
0,21
0,23
0,27
0,23
0,24
-0,01
-0,06
-0,07 -0,07
0,09
0,02
0,05
0,06
0,14
0,06
0,11 0,11
0,17
0,16
0,14
0,12
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Skilled workers Unskilled workers
Assessments of
government’s
economic policy
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
% of uncertainty in assessments of Government’s
economic policy decreased
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
• In September 2023, the share of positive assessments of government policy on business support has remained
unchanged (8%, as it was in August) and remains at the lowest level since the beginning of this survey
• % of neutral assessments of the government policy on business support increased after four month of decreasing
(from 51% to 57%)
• The share of the undecided respondents decreased from 27% in August to 20% in September
Respondents are puzzled about defining the role of the State
(Government) in Ukraine in doing business
6%
35%
13%
1%
44%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Enemy Regulator Partner Friend Don't know /
Didn't answer
State for business today is:, % of respondents
• Almost half of the respondents (44%) couldn’t define
the role of the state in Ukraine for doing business
• 35% consider the state as “regulator”
• Only 1% of respondents consider the state as a
“friend”
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
10,3 6,4 6,0 5,0
36,2
32,9 35,7 37,2
6,9
8,7
15,4
20,7
0,0
0,6
2,7
0,8
46,6 51,4
40,1 36,4
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
Micro Small Medium Large
by size, % of respondets:
"Enemy" "Regulator" "Partner" "Frend" DK/HS
New monthly enterprise survey. Methodology
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and
Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current
economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key
economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity
indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We
will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on
production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk,
Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy,
Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 17-th wave lasted from September 18 to September 29, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in September
2023 with August 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (September 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months,
depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
Our contacts
website: www.ier.com.ua
e-mail: rubanik@ier.kyiv.ua
kuziakiv@ier.kyiv.ua
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IER.Kyiv/
Twitter (in English only): https://twitter.com/IER_Kyiv

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NRES_September_2023_eng_.pdf

  • 1. Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the IER Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the IER Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the IER Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the IER Kyiv, October 11, 2023 “Don’t worry. Stay calm” Main economic trends in September 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
  • 2. ABOUT THE NEW RAPID ENTERPRISES SURVEY Monthly survey SAMPLE: 534 enterprises were surveyed in August Enterprises of all sizes Geography: 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine Sectors: Industry + (Retail, Agro) 17 surveys have already been conducted (since May 2022) The recent data were collected on September 18 - 29, 2023 New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 3. Main results 1 War-related risks are becoming a significant factor in the business environment Business expectations in the short-term perspective remain high, although the pace of recovery in production has slowed somewhat Businesses rely on themselves and need more business-friendly regulatory policies New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 4. Main results 2. Uncertainty Uncertainty in the 6-month perspective gradually continues to decrease Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective decreased slightly after three months of growth Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective remains without changes New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 5. Main results 3: business activity, production, export indicators 6 months’ expectations regarding enterprises’ business activity and the overall economic environment remained quite high and positive The share of enterprises operating at almost full and at full capacity decreased a bit (55% vs 57% in August), BARI is high but has decreased Production performance vs previous months slightly improved, while 3- months expectations decreased Rate of growth of export past performance and expectations decreased New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 6. Main results 4: impediments, economic policy The “dangerous to work” reached the 2nd place on the List of impediments to doing business The interruption in electricity remains at 6th position on the List of impediments to doing business % of uncertainty in assessments of the government’s economic policy decreased, while neutral assessments increased again New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 7. Ent/2 023) Impediments to doing business in wartime New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 8. The main impediments to doing business in wartime, % respondents There are significant changes in list of impediments are observed in September compared to August 2023 • Despite holding the 1st place, the impediment “rising prices for raw materials and goods” has lost a quarter of its importance in September • NB! “It is dangerous to work” holds the 2nd place, sharply moving up from the 6th and increasing in values from 33% to 40%. • In September “lack of personnel” reached the 3rd rank by moving up from the 5th in August and increasing the value from 35% to 37% • Problems with logistics moved down from the 2nd to the 3rd place for the first time in several months • “Electricity interruptions”, despite the slight lowering of their value from 34% to 32%, remained at the 6th place • Corruption and pressure from law enforcement agencies still are not significant problems New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 9. Interruptions of electricity remain a problem New Monthly Ent/2 023) New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 10. ”Electricity” still remains an impediment to doing business • In September 2023, the percentage of the respondents who indicated electricity and water supply as impediment to doing business slightly decreased • In the list of obstacles, interruptions in electricity remained at the 5th place New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) 12% 12% 11% 5% 4% 51% 78% 80% 79% 68% 46% 29% 32% 37% 32% 34% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Interruptions with electricity as impediment for doing bussiness, % of repondents
  • 11. “It is dangerous to work” became a more pressing problem New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 12. The importance of “it is dangerous to work” as an impediment to doing business increased • In September 2023, the share of enterprises that reported that it was dangerous to work increased from 33% to 40% • In the list of obstacles, “it is dangerous to work“ moved from 6th to 2nd place New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) 34% 30% 27% 26% 18% 33% 46% 47% 39% 40% 31% 25% 32% 31% 33% 33% 40% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 "It is dangerous to work", % of respondents
  • 13. “It is dangerous to work” in different dimensions New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) "It is dangerous to work" by oblast, % of respondents • % of enterprises that chose “it is dangerous to work“ increased in spite of the size group • 80+% of respondents in Kharkivska, Cherkaska, Vinnytska, Poltavska and Dnipropetrovska oblast consider insecure conditions as an impediment 38% 36% 38% 51% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% up to 10 11--50 51-250 250+ "It is dangerous to work" by the size groups, % respondents Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
  • 14. Changes over the past year New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 15. Business Activity Recovery Index (compassion of “now” vs “how it was a year ago“) New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) In September, the Business Activity Recovery Index (BARI, yoy) remained relatively high but decreased compared to August 2023 This happened: Due to the decrease in the share of growing reported enterprises (from 52% to 48%) At the same time: • There is no change in the share of drop reporters (13% vs 12% in August) • The share of those for whom nothing has changed has increased (from 36% to 40%) MICRO: In September vs. August, the value of the BARI for the micro business remained unchanged and worsened for other size groups -0,69 -0,68 -0,74 -0,78 -0,75 -0,02 0,20 0,42 0,44 0,37 0,40 0,35 -1,00 -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Business Activity Recoverн Index (balance between better/worse assessments comparing to the previous year ) -1,00 -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Business Activity Recovery Index (by size) Micro Small Medium Large
  • 16. “Now” vs. “before February 24, 2022”: the recovery of production is slowing down? In September 2023 the trends slowdown in the recovery of production has been kept • The share of enterprises working at almost full (75%-99%) and full capacity (100% and more) has been gradually lowering three months in a row (from 62% in June to 59% in July, 57% in August and 56% in September). At the same time: • both, % of enterprises operating at full capacity (100% or more) and % of enterprises that do not operate at all remain without changes (respectively 7% and 8% and 2% and 2%)) New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) 10 8 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 17 14 12 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 2 2 16 17 16 14 13 16 18 16 16 18 14 14 11 10 12 11 12 26 19 23 33 30 33 27 30 29 25 26 24 27 24 24 28 29 17 30 36 36 41 36 43 44 43 44 47 50 49 53 52 50 48 15 12 10 8 8 8 4 6 5 8 8 9 7 7 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 % of capacity utilization compared to "before February 24, 2022", % of respondents 0% capacity utilzation up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% capacity utilization
  • 17. Future and Uncertainty New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 18. Long-term uncertainty remains high and without changes Expectations in the two-year perspective Uncertainty in the two-year perspective New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) “It is hard to predict what will be with the activities of our enterprise in 2 years“, % of answers % of enterprises that have no idea about their plans for 2 years didn’t change • % of enterprises planning to extend activity in 2 years increased (from 23% to 25%) • % of enterprises planning to lower activity decreased (from (7.7% to 5.9%) 42,3 54,2 51,9 56 57,4 56 57,7 56,5 60,8 55,0 56,4 56,0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 37,5 31,6 30,4 31,6 29,8 28,2 29,7 24,4 23,1 25,9 23,1 25,1 56,3 56,7 60,4 60,8 64,6 66,1 63,4 71,4 74,0 68,2 69,2 69,0 6,3 11,6 9,3 7,5 5,6 5,7 6,9 4,1 2,9 6,0 7,7 5,9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Yes, I'm planning to extend Planning to stay at the current level Planning to lower activity
  • 19. Uncertainty in 3-month perspective decreased after three month of growth Half-year horizon Three-month horizon New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 % that no answer the questions about 6 months changes on... No answer on business activity at the enterprise in six month No answer on economic environment in six month 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% Export Production Sales Number of workers New orders % that no answer about 3 months changes on... May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
  • 20. 6 months perspective: expectations remains are still highly positive New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) Business activity at the enterprise Overall economic environment in the country -0,36 -0,32 -0,20 -0,22 -0,09 -0,16 -0,33 -0,24 -0,14 -0,11-0,10 -0,02 -0,07 0,00 -0,09 -0,04-0,05 0,07 0,15 0,12 0,03 0,11 -0,09 -0,18 0,01 0,15 0,34 0,48 0,46 0,43 0,46 0,40 0,37 0,39 -0,50 -0,40 -0,30 -0,20 -0,10 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Oct.23 Business activity at the enterprise Expected business activity at the enterprise -0,54 -0,44 -0,37 -0,28 -0,20 -0,31 -0,34 -0,28 -0,20 -0,14 -0,10 -0,07 -0,08 -0,03 -0,09 -0,07 -0,08 0,01 0,16 0,09 0,01 0,12 -0,12 -0,23 0,01 0,11 0,30 0,50 0,43 0,43 0,41 0,38 0,38 0,38 -0,60 -0,50 -0,40 -0,30 -0,20 -0,10 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Oct.23 Current overall economic environment Expected overall economic environment
  • 21. Enterprises’ past performances and expectations New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 22. Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI)* ICI has decreased in September compared to August (from 0.17 to 0.12) Fluctuations of index component are the following: • The production expectation (PI) decreased from 0.46 to 0.41 • Component stocks of finished goods (SFG) increased from -0.18 to -0.10 • Component volume of new orders (VNO) decreased from -0.14 to -0.16 *ICI= PI+VNO+(-SFG)/3 New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) -0,02 0,02 0,05 0,03 0,06 0,04 0,00 0,08 0,13 0,14 0,19 0,14 0,15 0,15 0,12 0,17 0,12 -0,25 -0,20 -0,15 -0,10 -0,05 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23
  • 23. Production optimism has a bit decreased In September vs. August (expectations) • The share of enterprises planning growth of production in the next 3-4 months decreased (from 47.6% in August to 41.7% in September) • The share of enterprises that planning decrease in production remained without significant changes (3.9% vs 2.9% in September) • The share of enterprises that planning to have no change in production during the next three months increased from 48.5% to 55.4% New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) Production, balance indicators -0,55 -0,30 -0,12 -0,09 0,05 -0,03 -0,13 -0,14 -0,04 -0,06 0,18 0,24 0,20 0,20 0,13 0,18 0,21 0,12 0,22 0,24 0,20 0,32 0,17 0,04 0,23 0,33 0,47 0,58 0,45 0,47 0,44 0,43 0,46 0,41 -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Oct.23 Production Production exp.
  • 24. Export: worsened (a bit) past performance and expectations New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) In September vs. August (past performance) • The share of enterprises reporting growth of export decreased from 26.1% to 23.9% • The share of enterprises informing reducing export also slightly decreased (from 21.0% in August to 19.9% in September) • The share of enterprises that have no change in export volumes during the next three months increased from 52.9% to 56.2% Export, balance indicators -0,42 -0,48 -0,31 -0,24-0,21 -0,15 -0,18 -0,11 -0,08-0,09 0,09 0,11 0,06 0,06 -0,01 0,08 0,06 0,07 0,11 0,14 0,12 0,22 0,13 0,00 0,23 0,24 0,33 0,49 0,37 0,37 0,33 0,37 0,38 0,29 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep,23 Oct.23 Export Export exp.
  • 25. Sales and new orders: optimism is going to erase? Sales New orders New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) -0,48 -0,36 -0,16 -0,09 0,01 -0,03 -0,14-0,14 -0,02 -0,06 0,18 0,23 0,20 0,18 0,12 0,18 0,19 0,11 0,23 0,23 0,20 0,33 0,19 0,04 0,24 0,32 0,47 0,59 0,46 0,48 0,43 0,44 0,47 0,40 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Oct.23 Sales Sales exp. -0,52 -0,30 -0,19 -0,020,01 -0,03 -0,11 -0,05 0,02 -0,04 0,20 0,23 0,18 0,14 0,12 0,16 0,15 0,10 0,19 0,25 0,23 0,34 0,21 0,15 0,29 0,33 0,44 0,59 0,45 0,45 0,42 0,41 0,42 0,39 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Oct.23 New orders New orders exp.
  • 26. The volume of order book has not changed In September 2023, the volume of order books for the surveyed enterprises remained at the previous level • The average term for new orders remains at 2 months (median) after declining from three months in January-April 2023 • 53% of enterprises have orders for up to 2 months. The share has remained almost without changes since May 2023 New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) 26 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 0% 20% 40% 60% Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months 6 to 11 months 12 months or more Median
  • 27. Employment and labor market New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 28. Employment: lowering of the number of workers is observed Number of workers Number of workers on forced leave New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) • % of enterprises planning employment growth in the next 3-4 month lowered (from 7.0% in August to 3% in September) • % of enterprises intending to reduce the number of employees almost unchanged (2.3% in August and 3.0% in September) • % of enterprises at which no changes in employment are expected increased from 90.7% to 94.0% • % of enterprises that will increase the number of employees on forced leave slightly decrease from 1.3% to 0.7% • % of enterprises that are going to reduce employees on forced leave increased from 24.6% in August to 26.9% in September • % unchanged slightly decreased from 73.6% to 72.3% -0,54 -0,30 -0,16 -0,09 -0,03 -0,09 -0,08 -0,08 -0,09 -0,09 -0,06 -0,07 -0,03 -0,07 -0,05 -0,03 -0,04 0,01 0,03 0,11 0,04 0,03 -0,02 -0,03 0,00 0,04 0,04 0,06 0,04 0,03 0,00 0,03 0,06 0,00 -0,60 -0,50 -0,40 -0,30 -0,20 -0,10 0,00 0,10 0,20 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov,22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Oct.23 Number of workers Number of workers exp. 0,35 0,05 0,06 0,01 0,00 -0,09 -0,20 -0,20 -0,18 -0,16 -0,19 -0,23 -0,22 -0,26 -0,08 -0,10 -0,22 -0,01 -0,22 -0,14 -0,03 0,02 -0,17 -0,25 -0,28 -0,26 -0,23 -0,26 -0,26 -0,25 -0,28 -0,22 -0,23-0,25 -0,40 -0,30 -0,20 -0,10 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Oct.23 Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.
  • 29. Problems in finding unskilled workers are decreasing Problems with finding workers In September, the problems with finding unskilled workers are decreasing already several month in a row, while difficulties with finding unskilled workers almost unchanged Skilled workers: • % of those who reported that it is more difficult to find such workers almost unchanged (25.4% vs 25.7%). As wells as % of those to whom it is easier to search for skilled workers (1.2% in August and 1.5% in September) Unskilled workers: • % of those who report that it is easy to find them increased a bit (4.4% in August and 5.7% in September) while % of those to whom this is harder almost unchanged (17.6% in August and 18.0% in September) New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) 0,24 0,18 0,06 0,09 0,17 0,11 0,12 0,19 0,26 0,14 0,25 0,21 0,23 0,27 0,23 0,24 -0,01 -0,06 -0,07 -0,07 0,09 0,02 0,05 0,06 0,14 0,06 0,11 0,11 0,17 0,16 0,14 0,12 -0,10 -0,05 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Skilled workers Unskilled workers
  • 30. Assessments of government’s economic policy New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 31. % of uncertainty in assessments of Government’s economic policy decreased New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) • In September 2023, the share of positive assessments of government policy on business support has remained unchanged (8%, as it was in August) and remains at the lowest level since the beginning of this survey • % of neutral assessments of the government policy on business support increased after four month of decreasing (from 51% to 57%) • The share of the undecided respondents decreased from 27% in August to 20% in September
  • 32. Respondents are puzzled about defining the role of the State (Government) in Ukraine in doing business 6% 35% 13% 1% 44% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Enemy Regulator Partner Friend Don't know / Didn't answer State for business today is:, % of respondents • Almost half of the respondents (44%) couldn’t define the role of the state in Ukraine for doing business • 35% consider the state as “regulator” • Only 1% of respondents consider the state as a “friend” New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023) 10,3 6,4 6,0 5,0 36,2 32,9 35,7 37,2 6,9 8,7 15,4 20,7 0,0 0,6 2,7 0,8 46,6 51,4 40,1 36,4 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0 Micro Small Medium Large by size, % of respondets: "Enemy" "Regulator" "Partner" "Frend" DK/HS
  • 33. New monthly enterprise survey. Methodology The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers. The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy. This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city. The field stage of the 17-th wave lasted from September 18 to September 29, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in September 2023 with August 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (September 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #17, (09/2023)
  • 34. Our contacts website: www.ier.com.ua e-mail: rubanik@ier.kyiv.ua kuziakiv@ier.kyiv.ua Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IER.Kyiv/ Twitter (in English only): https://twitter.com/IER_Kyiv