On September 11, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event "Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (August 2023)" within the framework of the project "Support to the Public Initiative "For Fair and Transparent Customs".
During the event, the results of the 16th monthly survey of business executives "Ukrainian Business during the war", which was conducted in August 2023, were presented.
Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty and the increase in short-term uncertainty, business performance has improved and business expectations remain high and rising again, according to the main result of the 16th NRES Monthly Company Survey. "Our results show that the business has practically divided into two groups, some have changed their development strategy to a wait-and-see one, while the other group, on the contrary, has adapted well to the conditions and is actively recovering," said Oksana Kuziakiv, executive director of the IER and head of the IER-Center for Research of Modern Society.
The share of respondents who could not answer what will happen to business activity at the enterprise in two years decreased from 55.0% in July to 56.4% in August. At the same time, among those who have decided on the future in 2 years, the share of optimists (those who plan to expand their activities) decreased from 25.9% to 23.1%, and the share of those who do not plan changes increased from 68.2% to 69.2%, which is also a signal of uncertainty.
Assessments of the current financial and economic situation at the enterprise and the general economic environment have improved, but expectations in the 6-month perspective become somewhat more restrained. But the level of optimism (the difference between "optimists" and "pessimists") remains quite high. The share of "optimists" decreased from 44.4% to 43%, and the share of pessimists increased from 4.8% to 6.6% when assessing the financial and economic situation at the enterprise over the next six months. Expectations about the general economic situation have not changed, in August, as well as in July, 44% of respondents expect an improvement in the general economic environment, and only 6.4% predict its deterioration.
In the short term, optimism is growing. Production expectations have improved after four consecutive months of "stagnant" optimism. In August, compared to July, the share of enterprises that planned to increase production in the next 3-4 months increased from 44.2% to 47.6%). The share of companies that planned to reduce production remained almost unchanged (4.0% in July and 3.9% in August).
Price growth continues to top the headwinds, but the value of this obstacle decreased by 10 percentage points. The labor shortage has moved from 3rd to 5th place. The decline in demand returned to the top three, rising from 5th to 3rd place on the list, sharing it with the "supply chain disruption" category.
Economic trends from a business point of view (September 2023)
“Don’t worry. Stay calm” Main economic trends in September 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On October 16, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event "Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (September 2023)" within the framework of the project "Support to the Public Initiative "For Fair and Transparent Customs".
During the event, the results of the 17th monthly survey of business executives "Ukrainian Business during the war", which was conducted in September 2023, were presented.
For reference: The field stage of the 17th wave lasted from September 18 to 29, 2023. In September, 534 companies were surveyed.
✅ Video presentation: http://surl.li/mgadj
Economic trends from a business point of view (October 2023)
“Cloudy Autumn” Main economic trends in October 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On November 16, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (October 2023)” within the framework of the project “Support to the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”.
During the event, the results of the 18th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in October 2023, were presented.
For reference: The field stage of the 18th wave lasted from October 16 to 31, 2023. In October, 534 companies were surveyed.
✅ Video presentation: http://surl.li/ndbel
Long-term prospects are on the rise, and uncertainty is gradually subsiding. However, the current recovery is at a standstill, plagued by business apprehensions regarding security, labor shortages, and demand issues. This encapsulates the sentiment among businesses in January 2024, as revealed by the research conducted by the IER team as part of the 21st #NRES monthly enterprise survey.
Of the surveyed enterprises, 56% reported that 2023 met their expectations, with 8% even surpassing expectations. Notably, there's a correlation between meeting 2023 expectations and enterprise size, with 77% of large enterprises reporting meeting or exceeding expectations compared to only 54% among micro-businesses.
"The results we obtained are quite optimistic. Given the turbulence experienced by Ukrainian businesses in 2023, I didn't expect to see such figures. It indicates that most enterprises are realistic in their planning," remarked Oksana Kuziakiv, executive director of IED.
According to the survey, three-month uncertainty regarding new orders and headcount expectations decreased among surveyed businesses (though it increased for exports). Uncertainty over the 6-month economic outlook decreased overall but rose for exports.
In addition to heightened uncertainty surrounding export prospects, surveyed companies also reported reduced exports. 34% of respondents had to decrease their exports in January compared to 20% in December. Meanwhile, the proportion of enterprises reporting increased exports dropped from 31% to 19%.
Overall, production indicators of surveyed enterprises worsened in January compared to December. The percentage of enterprises reducing production rose from 16.8% to 23.2%, and employment rates decreased slightly, with businesses facing challenges in finding qualified workers. However, Kuziakiv noted that the decline in employment might also be a seasonal trend.
Moreover, in January 2024, the index of business activity recovery worsened, with the proportion of enterprises reporting better business activity than the previous year decreasing from 64% in December to 56% in January.
The most cited obstacles to production growth among interviewed entrepreneurs include the war and unfavorable security situation, low demand, a shortage of qualified workers, and an unfavorable regulatory climate. However, corruption and pressure from law enforcement agencies were not deemed significant problems, according to the study.
Furthermore, over a fifth of surveyed Ukrainian enterprises identified lifting the blockade of western borders as a necessary change to improve the business climate in the country. For the first time, the survey also inquired about the impact of border closures on their businesses.
The survey included 552 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine operating in the manufacturing industry, retail, and agribusiness sectors. It was conducted from January 16 to 31, 2024.
Economic trends from a business point of view (December 2023)
“Frozen, but alive…optimism’23” Main economic trends in December 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On January 15, 2024 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (December 2023)” within the framework of the project “Support to the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”.
During the event, the results of the 20-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in December 2023, were presented.
The field stage of the 20-th wave lasted from December 13 to December 31, 2023. In November, 535 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in December 2023 with November, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
The security situation has deteriorated: % of respondents who chose “work in current conditions is dangerous” among impediments to production increased from 38% to 53% (!) and moved to the 1st place in the list of impediments.
Key massages: Despite the deteriorating security situation and high uncertainty that impact the deterioration of long-term plans, businesses are showing resilience by concentrating on finding solutions for the present and the immediate future.
Main result 1. “Frozen” recovery
BARI (Business Activity Recovery Index) remains high, but no changes comparing to the previous month.
The share of enterprises operating at total capacity remained without significant changes (12% vs 13% in November).
Industrial Confidence Indicator is without significant changes.
Main result 2. Uncertainty is almost unchanged
Uncertainty in the 6-month perspective remained without significant changes both for business activity at the enterprise and overall economic environment.
Uncertainty in the 3-month also remained without significant changes after a sharp decrease in November.
Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective remained high and without changed.
Main result 3. Do long long- and medium expectations tend to go down?
In December, for the first time in recent months, the business expectations for the next two years have deteriorated, but the “optimists” still exceed the “pessimists”.
6-month expectations regarding enterprises’ business activity and the overall economic environment have no change compared to November, but the annual trend decreased.
Main result 4. Main result 4: Past performance and expectations
Production performance in December vs November improved.
3 months perspective production expectations are positive but do not grow.
Economic trends from a business point of view (November 2023)
“If winter comes, can spring be far behind?” Main economic trends in November 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On December 11, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (November 2023)” within the framework of the project “Support to the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”.
During the event, the results of the 19-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in November 2023, were presented.
The field stage of the 19-th wave lasted from November 17 to November 30, 2023. In November, 539 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in November 2023 with October 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (November 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
Key message: The rate of economic recovery has once again accelerated amidst the cessation of the downward trend in short-term optimism and lowering uncertainty.
Recovery’s returns
The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has increased (13% vs 10% in October);
BARI (Business Activity Recovery Index) is high comparing to the previous year and increase in 2 times;
Industrial Confidence Indicator has increased.
Uncertainty has decreased
Uncertainty in the 6-month lowered a bit for business activity at the enterprise;
Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective significantly decreased;
Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective slightly decreased although remains high.
Past performance and expectations
6-month expectations regarding enterprises’ business activity and the overall economic environment has deteriorated;
Employment indicators suggested a seasonal deceleration while the labor market experienced a shortage of unskilled workers;
Production performance vs previous months and 3-months expectations remained optimistic;
Export performance and expectations continue to display positivity.
Impediments, economic policy
In November, the impediment “dangerous of work” occupied the 2nd position on the list of obstacles after being at 2nd in October;
Interruptions in electricity remain at the 6th position on the List of impediments to doing business already several month in a row;
Assessments on the government’s economic policy have deteriorated;
Interruptions in electricity remain at the 6th position on the List of impediments to doing business already several month in a row.
NEW! Our respondents` opinion: the key goal of government policy should be the mobilization of recourse for victory (73%).
✅ More survey results in the presentation.
✅ Video presentation: http://surl.li/ogjpp
Economic trends from a business point of view (September 2023)
“Don’t worry. Stay calm” Main economic trends in September 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On October 16, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event "Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (September 2023)" within the framework of the project "Support to the Public Initiative "For Fair and Transparent Customs".
During the event, the results of the 17th monthly survey of business executives "Ukrainian Business during the war", which was conducted in September 2023, were presented.
For reference: The field stage of the 17th wave lasted from September 18 to 29, 2023. In September, 534 companies were surveyed.
✅ Video presentation: http://surl.li/mgadj
Economic trends from a business point of view (October 2023)
“Cloudy Autumn” Main economic trends in October 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On November 16, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (October 2023)” within the framework of the project “Support to the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”.
During the event, the results of the 18th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in October 2023, were presented.
For reference: The field stage of the 18th wave lasted from October 16 to 31, 2023. In October, 534 companies were surveyed.
✅ Video presentation: http://surl.li/ndbel
Long-term prospects are on the rise, and uncertainty is gradually subsiding. However, the current recovery is at a standstill, plagued by business apprehensions regarding security, labor shortages, and demand issues. This encapsulates the sentiment among businesses in January 2024, as revealed by the research conducted by the IER team as part of the 21st #NRES monthly enterprise survey.
Of the surveyed enterprises, 56% reported that 2023 met their expectations, with 8% even surpassing expectations. Notably, there's a correlation between meeting 2023 expectations and enterprise size, with 77% of large enterprises reporting meeting or exceeding expectations compared to only 54% among micro-businesses.
"The results we obtained are quite optimistic. Given the turbulence experienced by Ukrainian businesses in 2023, I didn't expect to see such figures. It indicates that most enterprises are realistic in their planning," remarked Oksana Kuziakiv, executive director of IED.
According to the survey, three-month uncertainty regarding new orders and headcount expectations decreased among surveyed businesses (though it increased for exports). Uncertainty over the 6-month economic outlook decreased overall but rose for exports.
In addition to heightened uncertainty surrounding export prospects, surveyed companies also reported reduced exports. 34% of respondents had to decrease their exports in January compared to 20% in December. Meanwhile, the proportion of enterprises reporting increased exports dropped from 31% to 19%.
Overall, production indicators of surveyed enterprises worsened in January compared to December. The percentage of enterprises reducing production rose from 16.8% to 23.2%, and employment rates decreased slightly, with businesses facing challenges in finding qualified workers. However, Kuziakiv noted that the decline in employment might also be a seasonal trend.
Moreover, in January 2024, the index of business activity recovery worsened, with the proportion of enterprises reporting better business activity than the previous year decreasing from 64% in December to 56% in January.
The most cited obstacles to production growth among interviewed entrepreneurs include the war and unfavorable security situation, low demand, a shortage of qualified workers, and an unfavorable regulatory climate. However, corruption and pressure from law enforcement agencies were not deemed significant problems, according to the study.
Furthermore, over a fifth of surveyed Ukrainian enterprises identified lifting the blockade of western borders as a necessary change to improve the business climate in the country. For the first time, the survey also inquired about the impact of border closures on their businesses.
The survey included 552 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine operating in the manufacturing industry, retail, and agribusiness sectors. It was conducted from January 16 to 31, 2024.
Economic trends from a business point of view (December 2023)
“Frozen, but alive…optimism’23” Main economic trends in December 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On January 15, 2024 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (December 2023)” within the framework of the project “Support to the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”.
During the event, the results of the 20-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in December 2023, were presented.
The field stage of the 20-th wave lasted from December 13 to December 31, 2023. In November, 535 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in December 2023 with November, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
The security situation has deteriorated: % of respondents who chose “work in current conditions is dangerous” among impediments to production increased from 38% to 53% (!) and moved to the 1st place in the list of impediments.
Key massages: Despite the deteriorating security situation and high uncertainty that impact the deterioration of long-term plans, businesses are showing resilience by concentrating on finding solutions for the present and the immediate future.
Main result 1. “Frozen” recovery
BARI (Business Activity Recovery Index) remains high, but no changes comparing to the previous month.
The share of enterprises operating at total capacity remained without significant changes (12% vs 13% in November).
Industrial Confidence Indicator is without significant changes.
Main result 2. Uncertainty is almost unchanged
Uncertainty in the 6-month perspective remained without significant changes both for business activity at the enterprise and overall economic environment.
Uncertainty in the 3-month also remained without significant changes after a sharp decrease in November.
Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective remained high and without changed.
Main result 3. Do long long- and medium expectations tend to go down?
In December, for the first time in recent months, the business expectations for the next two years have deteriorated, but the “optimists” still exceed the “pessimists”.
6-month expectations regarding enterprises’ business activity and the overall economic environment have no change compared to November, but the annual trend decreased.
Main result 4. Main result 4: Past performance and expectations
Production performance in December vs November improved.
3 months perspective production expectations are positive but do not grow.
Economic trends from a business point of view (November 2023)
“If winter comes, can spring be far behind?” Main economic trends in November 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On December 11, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (November 2023)” within the framework of the project “Support to the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”.
During the event, the results of the 19-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in November 2023, were presented.
The field stage of the 19-th wave lasted from November 17 to November 30, 2023. In November, 539 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in November 2023 with October 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (November 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
Key message: The rate of economic recovery has once again accelerated amidst the cessation of the downward trend in short-term optimism and lowering uncertainty.
Recovery’s returns
The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has increased (13% vs 10% in October);
BARI (Business Activity Recovery Index) is high comparing to the previous year and increase in 2 times;
Industrial Confidence Indicator has increased.
Uncertainty has decreased
Uncertainty in the 6-month lowered a bit for business activity at the enterprise;
Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective significantly decreased;
Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective slightly decreased although remains high.
Past performance and expectations
6-month expectations regarding enterprises’ business activity and the overall economic environment has deteriorated;
Employment indicators suggested a seasonal deceleration while the labor market experienced a shortage of unskilled workers;
Production performance vs previous months and 3-months expectations remained optimistic;
Export performance and expectations continue to display positivity.
Impediments, economic policy
In November, the impediment “dangerous of work” occupied the 2nd position on the list of obstacles after being at 2nd in October;
Interruptions in electricity remain at the 6th position on the List of impediments to doing business already several month in a row;
Assessments on the government’s economic policy have deteriorated;
Interruptions in electricity remain at the 6th position on the List of impediments to doing business already several month in a row.
NEW! Our respondents` opinion: the key goal of government policy should be the mobilization of recourse for victory (73%).
✅ More survey results in the presentation.
✅ Video presentation: http://surl.li/ogjpp
Global economic issues within the context of global marketing. And real-life examples on the challenges posed by the economic environment at the macro level.
October 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
After more than 80 consecutive months of growth, the U.S. labor market saw its first contraction, losing 33,000 jobs in net terms, largely a result of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The overwhelming majority of losses were concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector, particularly in Florida (Puerto Rico is not counted in monthly figures), further exacerbating this contraction.
Manufacturing & Distribution Update: The Economic Impact on the IndustryCitrin Cooperman
This presentation focused on what the future is likely to bring to manufacturers and distributors as the nation attempts to claw its way back from the worst of the COVID-19 crisis.
Employment increased by 23,000 jobs so the expanding labor force only increased the overall unemployment rate by 30 basis points to 6.3 percent. This is the second consecutive month when unemployment increased.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 15. (07.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fifteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
In July 2023, for the first time in the last three months, uncertainty in the long term decreased; instead, entrepreneurs became more cautious about the short and medium-term plans, where uncertainty gradually increased for the second month in a row.
Estimates of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have slightly deteriorated, while expectations remain high.
Compared to the previous months, production indicators slightly worsened, and expectations for three months, while remaining highly positive, tend to stagnate. Despite a slight decrease, the share of enterprises operating at full and near full capacity remains dominant.
The importance of obstacles "unsafe to work" and "power supply cuts" remains significant for every third surveyed enterprise.
Export activity has slowed, although companies have positive expectations for the next three months.
Only a third of enterprises were able to increase the workers' salaries from the beginning of 2023, on average, by 12%.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 13. (05.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for May 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the thirteenth monthly enterprise survey
• Amid the military escalation, business optimism remains quite high, while the long term remains uncertain.
• Assessments of the current financial and economic situation at the enterprise have slightly deteriorated, while assessments of the general economic situation in the country and expectations for the future remained unchanged.
• Uncertainty in the 6- and 3-month perspective has been declining for several months in a row.
• The two-year plans remain vague for business: uncertainty remains high, and, also, the share of enterprises that do not plan changes for such a long term has increased.
• As missile attacks intensified, the importance of "unsafe operation" and "power outages" has again increased slightly for doing business.
• Export activity remains unchanged, which indicates a certain stagnation of export recovery.
• The main challenge for exporters remains logistical problems.
• Economic policy assessments in most cases are neutral and do not change.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the Twenty-third monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for March 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the Twenty-third wave lasted from March 18 to March 29, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in March 2024 with February, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (February 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). In March 2024, 523 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the Twenty-third monthly enterprise survey:
• Two-year uncertainty is now at the lowest point for two years, with improved near-term production expectations, but short- and medium-term uncertainty has increased.
• The Business Activity Recovery Index and the Industrial Confidence Indicator are rising, while the percentage of businesses operating at full capacity remains unchanged.
• Six-month expectations regarding the business activity of enterprises and the overall economic environment have improved, and production indicators have improved for the second month in a row.
• The export results of enterprises and expectations in the three-month perspective have improved.
• At the same time, difficulties in finding workers with the required qualifications are increasing and the lack of skilled workers ranks second in the ranking of obstacles with the highest value as of May 2022.
• After the attacks on the energy infrastructure, the importance of the obstacle "power outages" has increased significantly, while "unsafe to work" remains without significant changes.
• Assessments of the government's economic policy remain mostly neutral.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 22-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for February 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 22-th wave lasted from February 19 to February 29, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in February 2024 with January, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (February 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). In February y 2024, 542 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 22-th monthly enterprise survey:
• Against the backdrop of improved short-term expectations and a traditionally high level of two-year uncertainty, the shortage of workers has become one of the key obstacles to business development.
• The Industrial Confidence Indicator increased, as did the share of businesses operating at full capacity.
• At the same time, the Business Activity Recovery Index has been decreasing for the second month in a row.
• Uncertainty remains high in the long-term perspective and has increased for the overall economic environment in the six-month perspective.
• Business expectations for the two-year and half-year perspectives remain unchanged.
• Production indicators and expectations for the three months have improved, while expectations for exports remain unchanged.
• The share of enterprises operating at full capacity increased slightly compared to the pre-war period.
• For the first time in several months, the trend of reducing the number of workers was interrupted.
• However, the lack of labor as an impediment to doing business ranks second in the rating of challenges to doing business, and problems with finding workers remained unchanged compared to the previous month.
• "Unsafe to work," although has not changed significantly in terms of percentage, fell from first to third place in the rating of impediments. The recovery of export activity continues to stagnate. The percentage of negative assessments of state policy slightly increased.
Global economic issues within the context of global marketing. And real-life examples on the challenges posed by the economic environment at the macro level.
October 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
After more than 80 consecutive months of growth, the U.S. labor market saw its first contraction, losing 33,000 jobs in net terms, largely a result of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The overwhelming majority of losses were concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector, particularly in Florida (Puerto Rico is not counted in monthly figures), further exacerbating this contraction.
Manufacturing & Distribution Update: The Economic Impact on the IndustryCitrin Cooperman
This presentation focused on what the future is likely to bring to manufacturers and distributors as the nation attempts to claw its way back from the worst of the COVID-19 crisis.
Employment increased by 23,000 jobs so the expanding labor force only increased the overall unemployment rate by 30 basis points to 6.3 percent. This is the second consecutive month when unemployment increased.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 15. (07.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fifteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
In July 2023, for the first time in the last three months, uncertainty in the long term decreased; instead, entrepreneurs became more cautious about the short and medium-term plans, where uncertainty gradually increased for the second month in a row.
Estimates of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have slightly deteriorated, while expectations remain high.
Compared to the previous months, production indicators slightly worsened, and expectations for three months, while remaining highly positive, tend to stagnate. Despite a slight decrease, the share of enterprises operating at full and near full capacity remains dominant.
The importance of obstacles "unsafe to work" and "power supply cuts" remains significant for every third surveyed enterprise.
Export activity has slowed, although companies have positive expectations for the next three months.
Only a third of enterprises were able to increase the workers' salaries from the beginning of 2023, on average, by 12%.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 13. (05.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for May 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the thirteenth monthly enterprise survey
• Amid the military escalation, business optimism remains quite high, while the long term remains uncertain.
• Assessments of the current financial and economic situation at the enterprise have slightly deteriorated, while assessments of the general economic situation in the country and expectations for the future remained unchanged.
• Uncertainty in the 6- and 3-month perspective has been declining for several months in a row.
• The two-year plans remain vague for business: uncertainty remains high, and, also, the share of enterprises that do not plan changes for such a long term has increased.
• As missile attacks intensified, the importance of "unsafe operation" and "power outages" has again increased slightly for doing business.
• Export activity remains unchanged, which indicates a certain stagnation of export recovery.
• The main challenge for exporters remains logistical problems.
• Economic policy assessments in most cases are neutral and do not change.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the Twenty-third monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for March 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the Twenty-third wave lasted from March 18 to March 29, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in March 2024 with February, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (February 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). In March 2024, 523 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the Twenty-third monthly enterprise survey:
• Two-year uncertainty is now at the lowest point for two years, with improved near-term production expectations, but short- and medium-term uncertainty has increased.
• The Business Activity Recovery Index and the Industrial Confidence Indicator are rising, while the percentage of businesses operating at full capacity remains unchanged.
• Six-month expectations regarding the business activity of enterprises and the overall economic environment have improved, and production indicators have improved for the second month in a row.
• The export results of enterprises and expectations in the three-month perspective have improved.
• At the same time, difficulties in finding workers with the required qualifications are increasing and the lack of skilled workers ranks second in the ranking of obstacles with the highest value as of May 2022.
• After the attacks on the energy infrastructure, the importance of the obstacle "power outages" has increased significantly, while "unsafe to work" remains without significant changes.
• Assessments of the government's economic policy remain mostly neutral.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 22-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for February 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 22-th wave lasted from February 19 to February 29, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in February 2024 with January, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (February 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). In February y 2024, 542 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 22-th monthly enterprise survey:
• Against the backdrop of improved short-term expectations and a traditionally high level of two-year uncertainty, the shortage of workers has become one of the key obstacles to business development.
• The Industrial Confidence Indicator increased, as did the share of businesses operating at full capacity.
• At the same time, the Business Activity Recovery Index has been decreasing for the second month in a row.
• Uncertainty remains high in the long-term perspective and has increased for the overall economic environment in the six-month perspective.
• Business expectations for the two-year and half-year perspectives remain unchanged.
• Production indicators and expectations for the three months have improved, while expectations for exports remain unchanged.
• The share of enterprises operating at full capacity increased slightly compared to the pre-war period.
• For the first time in several months, the trend of reducing the number of workers was interrupted.
• However, the lack of labor as an impediment to doing business ranks second in the rating of challenges to doing business, and problems with finding workers remained unchanged compared to the previous month.
• "Unsafe to work," although has not changed significantly in terms of percentage, fell from first to third place in the rating of impediments. The recovery of export activity continues to stagnate. The percentage of negative assessments of state policy slightly increased.
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Резюме
• Темпи зростання реального ВВП сповільнились через проблеми з доступом до електроенергії внаслідок руйнування маневреної генерації електроенергії російськими дронами та ракетами.
• Експорт та імпорт продовжили зростати завдяки ліпшій логістиці як Українським морським коридором, так і автомобільним транспортом. Зокрема, польські фермери та перевізники припинили блокування кордонів в кінці квітня.
• В квітні як податкова, так і митна служби перевиконали розпис доходів, тоді як НБУ перерахував до бюджету вдвічі більше прибутків.
• Європейська сторона схвалила План України, який було ухвалено урядом для визначення індикаторів у межах Механізму для України (Ukraine facility). Це дозволить в травні отримати 1,9 млрд євро позики від ЄС. При цьому ЄС вже надав Україні 1,5 млрд євро позики в квітні, оскільки уряд вже виконав п’ять індикаторів за Планом України.
• США нарешті схвалили пакет допомоги Україні, в якому 7,8 млрд дол. США передбачено на бюджетну підтримку: однак умови та час надання допомоги досі невідомі.
• У квітні, як і у березні, річна споживча інфляція склала 3,2% дпр.
• НБУ на квітневому засідання з монетарної політики знову знизив облікову ставку з 14,5% до 13,5% річних.
• За останні чотири тижні курс гривні стабілізувався у проміжку 39-40 грн за дол. США.
ІЕД готує публікацію Макроекономічного моніторингу України за фінансової підтримки Європейського Союзу в рамках проєкту «Економіка України під час війни та підтримка українців, постраждалих від війни».
Вперше за два роки відсоток українського бізнесу, який вважає небезпеку найбільшою перешкодою для ділової активності, досяг 55%. Про це свідчать результати щомісячного опитування підприємств New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES), яке Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій провів у квітні 2024-го.
Частка підприємств, які повідомили, що працювати небезпечно, суттєво зросла, збільшившись із 46% до 55%. Це найвищий показник за весь період досліджень з травня 2022-го з травня 2022-го. Ця перешкода для ведення бізнесу стала головною у квітні для українських підприємств.
Водночас зростають позитивні очікування бізнесу щодо 6-місячної перспективи: як щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації на підприємстві, так і стосовно загально-економічного середовище в країні. Оцінка ситуації за цими двома параметрами позитивна вже другий місяць поспіль.
«Зважаючи на складну безпекову ситуацію, можна було б очікувати песимістичні настрої бізнесу, але насправді вийшло навпаки. Ми стикнулися з небувалим оптимізмом щодо бачення фінансово-економічної ситуації на підприємстві та в країні в цілому в піврічній перспективі. Невизначеність піврічної перспективи діяльності підприємств задекларували 20% опитаних компаній – і це можна вважати базовим рівнем. Продовжується тренд щодо зміцнення визначеності стосовно подальшої роботи підприємства у довгостроковій, тобто дворічній перспективі. При цьому ускладнюється ситуація з пошуком працівників – як кваліфікованих, так і некваліфікованих. Тренд щодо зростання цих труднощів спостерігаємо з вересня 2023 року», - зазначила виконавча директорка ІЕД Оксана Кузяків.
Так, частка підприємств, яким стало складніше знайти кваліфікованих працівників зросла з 38,9% у березні до 43 % у квітні. Аналогічний показник щодо некваліфікованої робочої сили зріс із 31,7% у березні до 36,6% у квітні.
Рейтинг перешкод для бізнесу суттєвих змін не зазнав, змінилося ранжування.
«Три головні перешкоди для ведення підприємницької діяльності залишилися такими ж, як минулого місяця, але у квітні «лідером» стала небезпека працювати (55% опитаних), на другому місці – зростання цін на сировину, матеріали, товари (51%), на третьому - брак робочої сили (43%). Значення небезпеки для роботи значно зросло для великого та середнього бізнесу. Дещо інша картина у розрізі перешкод для зростання бізнесу в контексті довгострокових тенденцій. Так, серед перешкод для зростання виробництва у квітні 2024 року найчастіше називали війну та несприятливу безпекову ситуацію. Наступними йшли, відповідно, низький попит, несприятлива політична ситуація та брак кваліфікованих працівників», - зазначив експерт ІЕД Євген Ангел.
Дисклеймер:
У щомісячному опитуванні Інституту економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій беруть участь понад 500 українських промислових підприємств, що розташовані у 21 із 27 областей України. Опитування у даному форматі проводиться з травня 2022 року. Польовий етап 23-ї хвилі дослідження тривав з 15 по 30 квітня 2024 року.
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 23-тє Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за березень 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 18 по 29 березня 2024 року.
Усього в 23й хвилі було опитано 523 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 23-го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• Дворічна невизначеність зараз знаходиться на найнижчій точці за два роки з покращеними найближчими очікуваннями виробництва, але коротко- та середньострокова невизначеність зросла.
• Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності та Агрегований Показник Перспектив Промисловості зростають, водночас, відсоток підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність, залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Шестимісячні очікування щодо фінансово-економічної активності підприємств та загальноекономічного середовища покращились, а виробничі показники два місяці поспіль покращуються.
• Результати роботи підприємств з експорту та очікування в тримісячній перспективі покращились.
• Разом із цим, зростають труднощі з пошуком працівників потрібної кваліфікації, брак кваліфікованих працівників посідає 2-ге місце в рейтингу перешкод із найвищим значенням від травня 2022 року.
• Після обстрілів енергетичної інфраструктури значення перешкоди «перебої з електрикою» суттєво зросло, а «небезпечно працювати» залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Оцінки економічної політики уряду залишаються переважно нейтральними.
Summary
• Businesses faced problems with access to electricity due to the russian shelling of energy facilities. This restrained GDP growth.
• Transportation by railway and through the Ukrainian Sea Corridor is growing, contributing to the development of several sectors of the economy.
• The value of goods exports declined sharply in March on a year-on-year basis amid continued decline in grain and iron ore prices.
• In March, a record external financing of USD 9 bn was received. Half the funds came from the EU as bridge financing under the Facility for Ukraine.
• The Government approved the Ukraine Plan, which defines priority steps and measures, the implementation of which should become the basis for the EU budget support.
• State fiscal revenues continued to grow, partly due to the windfall taxation of banks' profits.
• Inflation slowed to 3.2% yoy in March. Inflation was last at this level in the COVID year of 2020 and before the start of the russian aggression in 2014.
• The NBU lowered the policy rate to 14.5% p.a. in response to the low inflation and the resumption of aid from donors to Ukraine. However, the NBU moved cautiously as the Ukrainian economy faces serious risks.
• The hryvnia weakened to UAH 39 per USD as the NBU paced its support.
Резюме
• Підприємства стикнулись із обмеженнями у на постачання електроенергії внаслідок російських обстрілів енергетичних об’єктів. Це стримувало приріст ВВП.
• Транспортні перевезення Укрзалізницею та через Український морський коридор зростають, що сприяє розвитку ряду секторів економіки.
• Вартість товарного експорту різко скоротилась у березні у вимірі рік до року на тлі продовження зниження цін на зерно та залізні руди.
• В березні надійшло рекордне зовнішнє фінансування у сумі 9 млрд дол. США. Половина коштів надійшла від ЄС в межах перехідного фінансування за Механізмом для України.
• Уряд ухвалив План України, який визначає пріоритетні кроки та заходи, виконання яких має стати основою для надання бюджетної підтримки з боку ЄС.
• Доходи Державного бюджету продовжують зростати, частково завдяки оподаткуванню надприбутків банків.
• В березні інфляція сповільнилась до 3,2% дпр. До цього інфляція була на такому рівні у ковідному 2020 році та до початку російської агресії у 2014 році.
• НБУ знизив ставку до 14,5% річних на фоні низької інфляції та відновлення надходження допомоги від донорів України. Втім, НБУ рухався обережно через значні ризики.
• Гривня ослабла до 39 грн за дол. США на фоні стриманих інтервенцій НБУ.
Бізнес оптимістичніше дивиться у майбутнє, виробничі показники другий місяць поспіль покращуються, кількість працівників на підприємствах продовжує зростати. Водночас ускладнився пошук працівників та стало більше проблем з електропостачанням.
Такі висновки можна зробити з щомісячного опитування підприємств New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES), яке Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій провів у березні 2024-го.
Основні результати спостережень
У березні частка компаній, що не можуть передбачити свою діяльність на наступні два роки, опустилась нижче 40% (до 39,4%). Тобто частка тих, хто планує свою діяльність у дворічній перспективі, збільшилась до 60,6%. Це найкращий показник з початку проведення щомісячних опитувань бізнесу під час війни – тобто з жовтня 2022.
У березні дещо зріс Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності (ІВДА) - із 0,34 до 0,37 (за шкалою від -1 до +1). Частка підприємств, які повідомили, що їх ділова активність краща, ніж у попередньому році, збільшилась із 44,8% у лютому до 47,4% у березні. Показник ІВДА корелює із розміром підприємств. У березні значення ІВДА суттєво не змінилось і є найнижчим для мікропідприємств та поступово зменшується для малих. Водночас показник для середніх та великих підприємств збільшився.
Виробничі показники другий місяць поспіль покращуються, очікування щодо виробництва в перспективі на 3 місяці покращились. Частка підприємств, які планують зростання виробництва в найближчі 3-4 місяці, зросла із 43,8% до 54,4%.
“Дані, які ми отримали в ході березневого опитування, дають підстави говорити про весняне пробудження українського бізнесу. Минулого місяця невизначеність бізнесу на дворічну перспективу стала найнижчою за останні півтора роки, тобто з початку наших спостережень у жовтні 2022 року. На фоні цього ми спостерігали покращення короткострокових очікувань бізнесу щодо завантаженості власних потужностей, наявності клієнтів тощо, але разом з тим — і деяке зростання середньострокової та короткострокової невизначеності”, — зазначила Оксана Кузяків, виконавча директорка ІЕД.
Кількість працівників на підприємствах продовжує зростати одночасно зі зростанням труднощів у пошуку працівників необхідної кваліфікації.
“Результати опитування відображають складну ситуацію щодо доступу бізнесу до робочої сили. Фактично вперше половина українського підприємництва вказує про те, що це є суттєвою перешкодою. Наприклад, у 2022 році про це говорили лише близько 20% опитаних, минулого року ця перешкода трохи актуалізувалася і про неї вказувало близько третини опитаних. Але під кінець 2023 року ця перешкода в них опитуваннях почала постійно зростати”, - пояснив Євген Ангел, старший науковий співробітник ІЕД.
22-ге Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» (лютий 2024)
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 22-ге Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за лютий 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 19 до 29 лютого 2024 року..
Усього в 22й хвилі було опитано 542 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 22-го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• У лютому 2024 року на тлі покращення короткострокових очікувань і традиційно високого рівня дворічної невизначеності дефіцит працівників став однією з ключових перешкод для розвитку бізнесу.
• Агрегований показник перспектив промисловості зріс, як і частка підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність.
• Водночас Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності зменшується вже другий місяць поспіль.
• Невизначеність залишається високою у довгостроковій перспективі, та зросла для загальноекономічного середовища у піврічній перспективі.
• Очікування бізнесу на дворічну та піврічну перспективи залишаються без суттєвих змін.
• Виробничі показники та очікування на три місяці покращились, водночас очікування щодо експорту залишаються без змін.
• Незначною мірою зросла частка підприємств, які працюють на повну потужність порівняно з довоєнним періодом.
• Вперше за кілька місяців перервалась тенденція до скорочення кількості працівників, проте брак робочої сили як перешкода у веденні бізнесу займає другу позицію рейтингу перешкод ведення бізнесу, а проблеми із пошуком працівників залишились без змін порівняно до попереднього місяця.
• «Небезпечно працювати» хоча і не змінилась суттєво у відсотковому значенні, проте опустилась з першого на третє місце у рейтингу перешкод.
• Продовжується стагнація відновлення експортної діяльності.
• Відсоток негативних оцінок державної політики незначним чином зріс.
Resume
• According to the IER, real GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% yoy (year-on-year) in February 2024 from 3.1% yoy in January, partly due to the calendar effect.
• The power system survived the winter: the use of coal from thermal power plants and nuclear reactors increased. During this heating season, Ukraine used only gas of its own production for the first time in its history.
• Sea and rail transport had record performance against the backdrop of the blockade of the Polish border for trucks: 8 million tons and 14.6 million tons, respectively.
• According to preliminary customs estimates, trade in goods in February remained at the level of January 2024.
• State Budget revenues increased in February due to advance payment of dividends by state-owned banks and enterprises.
• In February, international financial assistance remained low, but we expect EUR 4.5 bn of bridge financing from the EU under the Ukraine Facility in March.
• Consumer inflation decelerated further to 4.3% yoy in February due to moderate growth in consumer demand and lower global commodity prices.
• Hryvnia remained stable for most of the first quarter of 2024, likely due to lower demand for foreign currency, including cash.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 21-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for January 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 21-th wave lasted from January 16 to January 31, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in January 2024 with December 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (January 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In January 2024, 552 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 21-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In January 2024, long-term expectations are improving, and uncertainty is easing, but the "here and now" recovery is stagnating amid business concerns about security, labor shortages, and demand issues.
• The Business Activity Recovery Index is positive but lower than a month ago.
• The Industrial Confidence Indicator is also positive, but the downward trend continues for the second month in a row.
• Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective has decreased. Uncertainty in the six-month perspective for the business activity continued to decrease gradually and remained unchanged for the overall economic environment. Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective is decreasing (or not increasing) for core expectations, excluding exports.
• Production indicators in January significantly worsened compared to December. At the same time, expectations regarding production in the three months horizon have not changed for the fourth month.
• Employment indicators are declining, and businesses are having trouble finding skilled workers.
• The enterprises' export results have worsened, but the expected changes in the short term remain positive. The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has remained unchanged for the third month in a row.
• The first place in the list of obstacles is shared by "unsafe to work" and "rising prices."
• The main events that businesses are waiting for are the end of the war and the reduction of taxes.
• More than half of the respondents have a neutral assessment of the Government's economic policy.
Резюме
• За оцінкою ІЕД темпи приросту реального ВВП прискорились до 5,6% дпр (до попереднього року) в лютому 2024 року з 3,1% дпр в січні частково через календарний ефект.
• Енергосистема витримала зиму: збільшилось використання вугілля ТЕС, а також атомних реакторів. В цьому опалювальному сезоні Україна вперше використовувала газ лише власного видобутку.
• На фоні блокади польського кордону для вантажівок морський та залізничний види транспорту б’ють рекорди з перевезень: 8 млн т та 14,6 млн т відповідно.
• За попередніми оцінками митниці, показники торгівлі товарами у лютому залишились на рівні січня 2024 року.
• Доходи Держбюджету в лютому зросли через авансову сплату дивідендів державними банками та підприємствами.
• Міжнародна фінансова допомога залишилась низькою в лютому, але вже в березні очікуємо 4,5 млрд євро перехідного фінансування від ЄС в межах Механізму для України.
• В лютому споживча інфляція надалі сповільнилась до 4,3% дпр на фоні помірного зростання споживчого попиту та зниження світових цін на сировину.
• Гривня залишалась стабільною протягом (більшості) першого кварталу 2024 року ймовірно через нижчий попит на іноземну валюту в тому числі готівкову.
ГО «Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій» (ІЕД) в рамках співпраці з регіонами підготував спеціальний звіт «Бізнес під час війни: Черкаська область» (грудень 2023).
Команда ІЕД зробила моніторинг економічної ситуації в Черкаській області в співпраці з Черкаською обласною державною адміністрацією. На основі Нового щомісячного опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» експерти ІЕД підготували шостий випуск дослідження для Черкаської області.
Щомісячне опитування підприємств проводиться за допомогою поєднання декількох методів збору даних: самостійне заповнення онлайн-форми та особисте опитування представників бізнесу із внесенням відповідей до онлайн-форми.
Польовий етап опитування тривав із 13 до 31 грудня 2023 року.
У листопаді 2023 року у Черкаській області було опитано 30 підприємств.
Серед них представлені підприємства від мікро до великого розмірів (найчастіше – середні). Усі опитані підприємства – промислові. Серед них найбільшу частку складають підприємства харчової промисловості.
Основне з дослідження:
• У грудні 2023 року керівники підприємств Черкаської області оцінюють власну фінансово-економічну ситуацію гірше, ніж загалом по країн.
• Спостерігається погіршення оцінок загальноекономічного середовища.
• Прогнози на піврічну перспективу щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації та загальноекономічного середовища, хоча і залишаються гіршими, ніж загалом по країні, але без суттєвих змін.
• При цьому, підприємці області утримуються від прогнозів на дворічну перспективу, тоді як загальноукраїнський показник довгострокових очікувань погіршився.
• Результати виробництва покращились і для регіону, і загалом по країні.
• На підприємствах Черкаської області відчувають незначні труднощі у пошуку кваліфікованих працівників, тоді як загалом по Україні збільшились труднощі і для кваліфікованих, і для некваліфікованих працівників.
ГО «Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій» (ІЕД) продовжує багаторічну роботу з українськими регіонами.
На основі Нового щомісячного опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» експерти ІЕД підготували черговий випуск дослідження для Київської області «Бізнес Київської області під час війни» за грудень 2023.
Польовий етап опитування тривав із 13 до 31 грудня 2023 року.
У грудні 2023 року в Київській області було опитано 21 підприємство. Серед них представлені підприємства від малого до великого розміру (найчастіше – великі). Усі опитані підприємства – промислові. Серед них найбільшу частку складають підприємства харчової промисловості.
Основне з дослідження:
• У грудні 2023 року оцінки підприємців Київської області щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації суттєво не змінились порівняно з листопадом, проте спостерігається поступове погіршення очікувань на піврічну перспективу.
• Оцінки та очікування щодо загальноекономічної ситуації по області поступово погіршуються, на відміну від загальноукраїнських значень, за якими суттєвих змін не відбувається.
• Динаміка відновлення в порівнянні з аналогічним періодом минулого року для області погіршилась, тоді як загалом по країні змін не відбулось.
• Очікування щодо дворічних перспектив погіршились як загалом по країні, так і для області.
• На відміну від загальноукраїнських показників, за якими спостерігається незначне покращення виробничих результатів та відсутні різкі зміни щодо очікувань на короткострокову перспективу, по області погіршились як показники результатів, так і очікування.
• Темпи скорочення зайнятості прискорились як по області, так і загалом по країні. Водночас, підприємці Київщини не відчувають труднощів у пошуку кваліфікованих або некваліфікованих працівників.
• На підприємствах Київської області рівень завантаження потужностей вищий ніж в цілому по Україні.
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 21-ше Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за січень 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 16 по 31 січня, 2024 року.
Усього в 21й хвилі було опитано 552 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 21го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• У січні 2024 довгострокові очікування покращуються, невизначеність зменшується, але відновлення «тут та тепер» стагнує на фоні занепокоєнь бізнесу щодо безпеки, браку працівників та проблем із попитом.
• Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності додатний, але менший ніж місяць тому. Агрегований показник перспектив промисловості також додатний, але два місяці поспіль триває тренд до зменшення.
• Невизначеність у дворічній перспективі знизилася.
• Невизначеність у піврічній перспективі для фінансово-економічної ситуації продовжує поступово зменшуватись та залишається без змін для загально-економічного середовища.
• Невизначеність у тримісячній перспективі зменшується (або не зростає) для основних очікувань, за винятком експорту.
• Виробничі показники в січні порівняно з груднем значно погіршилися, водночас, очікування щодо виробництва в перспективі на три місяці не змінюються вже чотири місяці.
• Показники зайнятості знижуються, а бізнес має проблеми з пошуком кваліфікованих працівників.
• Результати роботи підприємств з експорту погіршилися, але очікувані зміни в короткостроковій перспективі залишаються позитивними.
• Частка підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність, три місяці поспіль залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Перше місце в списку перешкод ділять перешкоди «працювати небезпечно» та «зростання цін».
• Головні події, на які очікує бізнес, - завершення війни та зниження податків.
• Більше половини опитаних нейтрально оцінюють економічну політику уряду.
Період моніторингу: з 1 січня по 15 лютого 2024 року
У цьому випуску:
Парламент погодив норми Податкового кодексу України з Митним тарифом України
Уряд вніс технічні зміни до переліків товарів, експорт та імпорт яких підлягає ліцензуванню, та квот на 2024 рік
Держмитслужба затвердила формат обміну даними з магазинами безмитної торгівлі
Підготовлено чергові зміни до Митного кодексу України в контексті його наближення до норм ЄС
Держмитслужба разом із молдовськими колегами запустила спільний контроль у п/п “Кучурган-Новосавицьке” для залізничного сполучення
Держмитслужба розпочала пілотний проєкт щодо здійснення постмитного контролю
На порталі «Єдине вікно для міжнародної торгівлі» додано можливість перегляду митної декларації в актуальному стані - із урахуванням коригувань
На двох митних постах – «Ужгород-автомобільний» і «Астей» Закарпатської митниці - буде встановлено сучасні модульні конструкції
Одним з пріоритетів у повоєнній відбудові України повинна стати безбар’єрність, адже в результаті війни суттєво зростає кількість осіб з інвалідністю - впевнена Олександра Бетлій, провідна наукова співробітниця Інституту економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД). Своє бачення майбутньої безбар’єрної України вона представила під час обговорення лютневого моніторингу “Контролю витрат на відновлення України” консорціуму RISE, в який входить ІЕД.
Як пояснює Бетлій, наразі лише 22% обстежених Мінсоцполітики адміністратвних будівель є доступними, ще 32% – частково доступними. Найкраща ситуація — у ЦНАПах та закладах охорони здоров’я. Найгірша — у будинках, де розташовані органи держвлади.
На думку експертки, для покращення ситуації важливо ухвалити Національну стратегію зі створення безбар’єрного простору в Україні на період до 2030 року. Ця стратегія має на меті сформувати загальний підхід до формування та імплементації державної політики для забезпечення безперешкодного доступу всіх груп населення до різних сфер життєдіяльності.
Також, як вважає Бетлій, надзвичайно важливим є підвищення обізнаності о принципах безбар’єрності на місцях. Місцеві органи влади повинні включати принципи безбар’єрності при підготовці планів та програм відновлення. А громадська ініціатива спонукати чиновників швидше впроваджувати зміни. Крім того, потрібна подальша зміна будівельних стандартів та їх гармонізація з правилами ЄС.
Загалом, як витікає з оприлюдненої 15 лютого третьої редакції звіту про потреби відновлення України (RDNA-3), який відображає узгоджені оцінки Світового банку, ЄС та ООН загальна сума прямих збитків України внаслідок російської агресії становить $152,5 млрд, а потреби коштів на відновлення – $486 млрд. Звіт охоплює період з 24 лютого 2022-го по 31 грудня 2023-го.
Оцінка потреб у відновленні на 2024 рік становить $15 млрд, або 2% від загальних потреб. Втім, навіть за таких цифр у 2024 році брак фінансування становить $9,5 млрд, чи 62% від необхідного обсягу.
Дискусію можна подивитися на YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLtuUJpz2kg
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine
No.229, February 2024
Resume
• According to the IER, the real GDP growth rate was 3.1% yoy in January 2024.
• The power system remains balanced despite russian shelling. Due to the cold weather, industry and the population increased electricity consumption.
• The Ukrainian Sea Corridor is working well, but trucks at the border are blocked again. Exports by sea in January amounted to 8.7 m tons, and another 2.7 m tons were transported by rail.
• The strike of Polish farmers hinders Ukraine's foreign trade. Since February 12, they have blocked five border crossing points on the Ukrainian-Polish border.
• The current account deficit in 2023 was 5.5% of GDP. The key factors are sharply increased goods trade deficit against reduced grants and expanded investment payments.
• In January 2024, a minimal amount of external financial assistance was received. Expenditures were significantly lower than planned.
• The EU almost approved aid to Ukraine, while a heated debate continues in the United States.
• At the beginning of 2024, consumer inflation decelerated to 4.7% yoy. It was below 5% for the first time since 2020.
• The hryvnia stabilized in 2024 due to a better balance between exports and imports.
• The NBU left the key policy rate at 15% per annum in January and confirmed that there are currently no plans to reduce the rate significantly in 2024.
Місячний Економічний Моніторинг України
№229, лютий 2024 року
Резюме
• За оцінкою ІЕД темпи приросту реального ВВП становили 3,1% дпр у січні 2024 року
• Енергосистема зберігає збалансованість попри російські обстріли. Через холодну погоду зростає споживання електроенергії як промисловістю, так і населенням.
• Український морський коридор працює добре, але знову заблокований автотранспорт. Експорт морським транспортом в січні становив 8,7 млн т, ще 2,7 млн т перевезли залізницею.
• Страйк польських фермерів перешкоджає зовнішній торгівлі України. З 12 лютого ними заблоковано п’ять пунктів пропуску на україно-польському кордоні.
• Дефіцит рахунку поточних операцій у 2023 році склав 5.5% від ВВП. Ключові фактори – різке збільшення дефіциту торгівлі товарами на тлі скорочення грантової допомоги та розширення інвестиційних виплат.
• У січні 2024 року надійшла надзвичайна мала сума зовнішньої фінансової допомоги. Видатки були суттєво нижчі за план.
• ЄС майже схвалив допомогу Україні, тоді як в США тривають гарячі дебати.
• На початку 2024 року споживча інфляція сповільнилась до 4,7 % дпр. Вона була нижча 5% вперше з 2020 року.
• Гривня стабілізувалась у 2024 році через кращий баланс між експортом та імпортом
• НБУ залишив облікову ставку на рівні 15% річних у січні і підтвердив, що значного зниження ставки у 2024 році наразі не планується
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Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
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debuts.
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1. Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the IER
Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the IER
Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the IER
Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the IER
Kyiv, September 11, 2023
“There’s No Time Like The Present”
Main economic trends in August 2023
based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
2. ABOUT THE NEW RAPID ENTERPRISES SURVEY
Monthly survey
SAMPLE: 539
enterprises were
surveyed in August
Enterprises of
all sizes
Geography: 21
out of 27 regions
of Ukraine
Sectors: Industry +
(Retail, Agro)
16 surveys have
already been
conducted (since
May 2022)
The recent data were
collected
on August 15 - 31, 2023
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
3. Main results 1
Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty
and an increase in short-term uncertainty, the
enterprises’ performance improved, and
business expectations are still high and growing
again
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
4. Main results 2: Uncertainty
Uncertainty in the 6-month perspective
decreased
Uncertainty in the 3-month
perspective has been slightly increasing
already for the third month in a row
Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective remains
high
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
5. Main results 3: business activity, production,
export indicators
Current assessments of the enterprises’
business activity and overall economic
environment improved while
expectations gradually decreased but
remained high.
The share of enterprises operating at
almost full and at full capacity remains
without significant changes (57% vs 59%
in July)
Production performance vs previous
months improved, and 3-month
expectations are growing again
Export past performance and
expectations are improved
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
6. Main results 4: impediments, policy, expected
events
% of respondents that consider that it
is dangerous to work remained with
changes ( 33%)
The importance of interruptions in
electricity as an impediment
remained at the same level (30%)
% of uncertainty in assessments of
the government’s economic policy
sharply increased
NEW. “End of war” and “good
business climate” are the main
expected events by businesses.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
8. The main impediments to doing business in wartime, % respondents
There were no significant changes for most of
the impediments in August vs. July 2023
• Rising prices for raw materials and goods
have remained in the leading position for
several months in a row, in August their
importance increased
• Logistical problems also holds the 2nd place in
the list of obstacles
• “Electricity interruptions”, despite the slight
increase of absolute value from 32% to 34%,
moved up from the 7th to the 5th place
• Lack of personnel after decrease of its absolute
value moved from the 3rd to the 4th place
• At the same time, the obstacle “it is dangerous
to work” remains unchanged in value and at
the 6th place in the ranking
• Corruption and pressure from law enforcement
agencies still is not a significant problem
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
10. ”Electricity” remains an impediment to doing business
• In August 2023, the percentage of
respondents who indicated electricity
and water supply as impediment to
doing business slightly increased
• In the list of obstacles, interruptions in
electricity moved from 7th to 5th place
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
12% 12% 11%
5% 4%
51%
78% 80% 79%
68%
46%
29%
32%
37%
32% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
Interruptions with electricity as impediment for doing business, % of
respondents
11. ”Electricity” as an impediment to doing business varies
for industries
There are two industries where the share of
respondents who believe that access to electricity is
a problem for their business exceeds 50% (which is
one and a half times more than the average). This is
machinery building and metal processing.
Among enterprises of the food industry, which was a
leader in adapting to work in wartime conditions, a
quarter of respondents consider access to electricity
a problem (this is less than the average)
Printing companies (less than 15%) complained
about the lack of electricity the least often.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
14,3
25,6
26,1
30,4
32,1
33,3
34,0
37,8
50,0
57,6
-5,0 5,0 15,0 25,0 35,0 45,0 55,0 65,0
Printing
Food Industry
Wood processing
Chemical
Other industries
Construction Material
Ukraine
Textile Industry
Metal processing
Machinery Building
Electricity as impediment to doing business by
industries, % of respondents
13. The importance of “it is dangerous to work” as an
impediment to doing business did not change
• In August 2023, the share of
enterprises that reported that it was
dangerous to work is 33% (as it was in
July)
• In the list of obstacles, “it is dangerous
to work“ remains at the 6th place
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
34%
30%
27%
26%
18%
33%
46%
47%
39% 40%
31%
25%
32%
31%
33% 33%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
"It is dangerous to work", % of respondents
14. “It is dangerous to work” in different dimensions
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
"It is dangerous to work" by oblast, % of respondents
• % of enterprises large enterprises that chose “it is
dangerous to work“ slightly decreased, while % for
micro enterprises increased
• 85+% of respondents in Poltavska, Zhytomyrska and
Vinnytska oblast consider insecure conditions as an
impediment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
up to 10 11--50 51-250 250+
"It is dangerous to work" by the size
groups, % respondents
Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
16. Business activity at enterprises compared to
“how it was a year ago"
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Business activity at the enterprises
compared to “how it was a year ago"
grew after slightly decreasing
• 51.7% consider the situation better
than it was a year ago
• 36.2% say that “nothing has
changed”
• 12.1% say that the situation is worse
In August vs. July, the absolute value of
the indicator for micro business
significantly worsened, while for the
medium enterprises improved.
Small and large enterprises remain
without significant changes
-0,69 -0,68
-0,74
-0,78
-0,75
-0,02
0,20
0,42 0,44
0,37
0,40
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Balance between better/worse
assessments comparing to the previous
year
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Balance between better/worse
assessments comparing to the previous
year (by size)
Micro Small Medium Large
18. Long-term uncertainty remains without significant changes
Expectations in the two-year perspective
Uncertainty in the two-year perspective
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
“It is hard to predict what will be with the activities of our
enterprise in 2 years“, % of answers
% of enterprises that have no idea about their
plans for 2 years didn’t change significantly
The share of enterprises planning to extend
activity in 2 years decreased
42,3
54,2
51,9
56
57,4
56
57,7
56,5
60,8
55,0
56,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
37,5 31,6 30,4 31,6 29,8 28,2 29,7 24,4 23,1 25,9 23,1
56,3
56,7 60,4 60,8 64,6 66,1 63,4 71,4 74,0 68,2 69,2
6,3 11,6 9,3 7,5 5,6 5,7 6,9 4,1 2,9 6,0 7,7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
Yes, I'm planning to extend Planning to stay at the current level Planning to lower activity
19. Uncertainty in 6-months perspective
decreased, while 3-month continues to increase
Half-year horizon Three-month horizon
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Export Production Sales Number of
workers
New orders
% that no answer about 3 months changes on...
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22
Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
20,4%
16,0%
22,6%
18,4%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
% that no answer the questions about 6 months changes on...
No answer on business activity at the enterprise in six month
No answer on economic environment in six month
22. Is the recovery of production over?
In August 2023, there were no changes in %
capacity utilization structure compared to
“before February 2022.”
• % of enterprises operating at almost full
and at full capacity is still relatively high:
• 7% of enterprises are working at full
capacity (100% or more), the same as
in July
• The share of enterprises working at
almost full capacity (75%-99%) is 50%
(in July it was 52%)
• % of enterprises that do not operate at all
remains without significant changes since
last autumn (2% in August and 3% in July)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
10 8
4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 2
17
14
12
7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 2
16
17
16
14 13 16
18
16 16 18 14
14
11 10 12 11
26
19
23
33
30
33 27 30 29 25
26
24 27
24 24 28
17
30 36
36
41
36 43 44 43 44 47
50 49 53 52
50
15 12 10 8 8 8 4 6 5 8 8 9 7 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
% of capacity utilization compared to "before February
24, 2022", % of respondents
0% capacity utilzation up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% capacity utilization
23. Industrial Confidence Indicator
ICI= PI+VNO+(-SFG)/3
ICI is quite positive
In August compared to July, the value of the
ICI increased from 0.12 to 0.17
Fluctuations of index component are the
following:
• The production expectation (PI) slightly
increased from 0.43 to 0.46
• Component stocks of finished goods (SFG)
decreased from -0.16 to -0.18
• Component volume of new orders (VNO)
increased almost twice, from -0.24 to -0.14
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
-0,02
0,02
0,05
0,03
0,06
0,04
0,00
0,08
0,13
0,14
0,19
0,14
0,15 0,15
0,12
0,17
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
24. Production optimism is growing
In August vs. July (expectations)
• The share of enterprises that planned growth of
production in the next 3-4 months increased
(from 44,2% in July to 47,6% in August)
• The share of enterprises that planned decrease in
production reminded without changes (4.0% to
3,9%
• The share of enterprises that plan to have no
change in production during the next three
months decreased from 51.8% to 48.5%
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
-0,55
-0,30
-0,12-0,09
0,05
-0,03
-0,13-0,14
-0,04-0,06
0,18
0,24
0,20 0,20
0,13
0,18
0,12
0,22 0,24
0,20
0,32
0,17
0,04
0,23
0,33
0,47
0,58
0,45 0,47 0,44 0,43
0,46
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Production Production exp.
Production, balance indicators
25. Export: improved (a bit) past performance and expectations
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
-0,42
-0,48
-0,31
-0,24
-0,21
-0,15
-0,18
-0,11
-0,08-0,09
0,09 0,11
0,06 0,06
-0,01
0,08
0,07
0,11
0,14 0,12
0,22
0,13
0,00
0,23 0,24
0,33
0,49
0,37 0,37
0,33
0,37
0,38
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep,23
Export Export exp.
In August vs. July (past performance)
• The share of enterprises reporting growth of export
increased from 20.5% to 26.1%
• The share of enterprises informing reducing export
was almost unchanged (23,2% in July and 21,0 % in
August)
• The share of enterprises that have no change in
export volumes during the next three months
decreased from 56.3% to 52.9%
Export, balance indicators
27. The order book has not changed
In August 2023, the order book for the
surveyed enterprises remained at the
previous level
• The average term for new
orders remains at 2 months
(median) after declining from
three months in January-April
2023
• 52% of enterprises have orders
for up to 2 months. This share
has remained almost without
changes since May 2023
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #15, (07/2023) 27
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
0%
20%
40%
60%
Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months
6 to 11 months 12 months or more Median
29. Employment: an increase in number of workers are observed
Number of workers Number of workers on forced leave
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
• % of enterprises planning employment growth almost don’t change
(6.6% in July and 7.0% in August)
• % of enterprises intending to reduce the number of employees decrease
from 4.3% to 2.3%
• % of enterprises at which no changes in employment are expected
almost don’t change (89.1% in July and 90.7% in August)
• % of enterprises that will increase the number of employees on forced
leave slightly decrease from 2.2% to 1.3%
• % of enterprises that are going to reduce employees on forced leave
almost don’t change (25.7% in July and 24.6% in August)
• % unchanged slightly increased (from 72.1% to 73.6%)
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov,22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Number of workers Number of workers exp.
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.
30. Problems in finding workers decreased?
Problems with finding workers
In August, the problems with finding both
skilled and unskilled workers decreased
Skilled workers:
• % of those who reported that it is more difficult
to find such workers decreased (from 27.5% to
25.4%). At the same time % of those to whom it
is easier to search for skilled workers remains
almost without changes (1.5% in July and 1.2%
in August)
Unskilled workers:
• % of those who report that it is easy to find
them decreased a bit (5.2% in July and 4.4% in
August) as well as % of those to whom this is
harder decreased a bit (from 18.7% in July to
17.6% in August)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
0,24
0,18
0,06
0,09
0,17
0,11
0,12
0,19
0,26
0,14
0,25
0,21
0,23
0,27
0,23
-0,01
-0,06
-0,07 -0,07
0,09
0,02
0,05
0,06
0,14
0,06
0,11 0,11
0,17
0,16
0,14
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Skilled workers Unskilled workers
32. % of uncertainty in assessments of government’s
economic policy increased
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
• In August 2023, the share of positive assessments of government policy on business support continued to decrease
(from 10% in July to 8%) and is at the lowest level since the beginning of this survey
• Businesses still mostly neutrally assess the government policy on business support: at the same time, this % has
been decreasing for the forth month in a row
• The share of the undecided respondents sharply increased from 18% in July to 27% in August
33. Expected events : “end of the war”, “better business climate”
• End of the war is the main
expectation of the surveyed
businesses
• Simplification of legal requirements
for businesses has increased in
importance,
it implies that adaptation to wartime
conditions (among others) puts unresolved
“before-war”, and “traditional” problems
of the business environment on the
agenda.
• Deoccupation of the territories of
Ukraine is expected less often –
possibly indicating the adaptation of
businesses to new market conditions
• Fewer businesses expect hryvnia
devaluation to stop,
which reflects more stable foreign
currency exchange rate in Ukraine in mid-
2023
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
34. New monthly enterprise survey. Methodology
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and
Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current
economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key
economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity
indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We
will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on
production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk,
Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy,
Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 16-th wave lasted from August 15 to August 31, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in August 2023 with July
2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (August 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the
question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
35. Our contacts
website: www.ier.com.ua
e-mail: rubanik@ier.kyiv.ua
kuziakiv@ier.kyiv.ua
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