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Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the IER
Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the IER
Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the IER
Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the IER
Kyiv, September 11, 2023
“There’s No Time Like The Present”
Main economic trends in August 2023
based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
ABOUT THE NEW RAPID ENTERPRISES SURVEY
Monthly survey
SAMPLE: 539
enterprises were
surveyed in August
Enterprises of
all sizes
Geography: 21
out of 27 regions
of Ukraine
Sectors: Industry +
(Retail, Agro)
16 surveys have
already been
conducted (since
May 2022)
The recent data were
collected
on August 15 - 31, 2023
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Main results 1
Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty
and an increase in short-term uncertainty, the
enterprises’ performance improved, and
business expectations are still high and growing
again
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Main results 2: Uncertainty
Uncertainty in the 6-month perspective
decreased
Uncertainty in the 3-month
perspective has been slightly increasing
already for the third month in a row
Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective remains
high
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Main results 3: business activity, production,
export indicators
Current assessments of the enterprises’
business activity and overall economic
environment improved while
expectations gradually decreased but
remained high.
The share of enterprises operating at
almost full and at full capacity remains
without significant changes (57% vs 59%
in July)
Production performance vs previous
months improved, and 3-month
expectations are growing again
Export past performance and
expectations are improved
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Main results 4: impediments, policy, expected
events
% of respondents that consider that it
is dangerous to work remained with
changes ( 33%)
The importance of interruptions in
electricity as an impediment
remained at the same level (30%)
% of uncertainty in assessments of
the government’s economic policy
sharply increased
NEW. “End of war” and “good
business climate” are the main
expected events by businesses.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Ent/2
023)
Impediments to
doing business
in wartime
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
The main impediments to doing business in wartime, % respondents
There were no significant changes for most of
the impediments in August vs. July 2023
• Rising prices for raw materials and goods
have remained in the leading position for
several months in a row, in August their
importance increased
• Logistical problems also holds the 2nd place in
the list of obstacles
• “Electricity interruptions”, despite the slight
increase of absolute value from 32% to 34%,
moved up from the 7th to the 5th place
• Lack of personnel after decrease of its absolute
value moved from the 3rd to the 4th place
• At the same time, the obstacle “it is dangerous
to work” remains unchanged in value and at
the 6th place in the ranking
• Corruption and pressure from law enforcement
agencies still is not a significant problem
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Interruptions
of electricity is
still a problem
New Monthly Ent/2
023)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
”Electricity” remains an impediment to doing business
• In August 2023, the percentage of
respondents who indicated electricity
and water supply as impediment to
doing business slightly increased
• In the list of obstacles, interruptions in
electricity moved from 7th to 5th place
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
12% 12% 11%
5% 4%
51%
78% 80% 79%
68%
46%
29%
32%
37%
32% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
Interruptions with electricity as impediment for doing business, % of
respondents
”Electricity” as an impediment to doing business varies
for industries
There are two industries where the share of
respondents who believe that access to electricity is
a problem for their business exceeds 50% (which is
one and a half times more than the average). This is
machinery building and metal processing.
Among enterprises of the food industry, which was a
leader in adapting to work in wartime conditions, a
quarter of respondents consider access to electricity
a problem (this is less than the average)
Printing companies (less than 15%) complained
about the lack of electricity the least often.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
14,3
25,6
26,1
30,4
32,1
33,3
34,0
37,8
50,0
57,6
-5,0 5,0 15,0 25,0 35,0 45,0 55,0 65,0
Printing
Food Industry
Wood processing
Chemical
Other industries
Construction Material
Ukraine
Textile Industry
Metal processing
Machinery Building
Electricity as impediment to doing business by
industries, % of respondents
It is
still
dangerous to
work
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
The importance of “it is dangerous to work” as an
impediment to doing business did not change
• In August 2023, the share of
enterprises that reported that it was
dangerous to work is 33% (as it was in
July)
• In the list of obstacles, “it is dangerous
to work“ remains at the 6th place
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
34%
30%
27%
26%
18%
33%
46%
47%
39% 40%
31%
25%
32%
31%
33% 33%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
"It is dangerous to work", % of respondents
“It is dangerous to work” in different dimensions
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
"It is dangerous to work" by oblast, % of respondents
• % of enterprises large enterprises that chose “it is
dangerous to work“ slightly decreased, while % for
micro enterprises increased
• 85+% of respondents in Poltavska, Zhytomyrska and
Vinnytska oblast consider insecure conditions as an
impediment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
up to 10 11--50 51-250 250+
"It is dangerous to work" by the size
groups, % respondents
Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
August to
August:
changes over
the past year
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Business activity at enterprises compared to
“how it was a year ago"
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Business activity at the enterprises
compared to “how it was a year ago"
grew after slightly decreasing
• 51.7% consider the situation better
than it was a year ago
• 36.2% say that “nothing has
changed”
• 12.1% say that the situation is worse
In August vs. July, the absolute value of
the indicator for micro business
significantly worsened, while for the
medium enterprises improved.
Small and large enterprises remain
without significant changes
-0,69 -0,68
-0,74
-0,78
-0,75
-0,02
0,20
0,42 0,44
0,37
0,40
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Balance between better/worse
assessments comparing to the previous
year
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Balance between better/worse
assessments comparing to the previous
year (by size)
Micro Small Medium Large
Future and
Uncertainty
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Long-term uncertainty remains without significant changes
Expectations in the two-year perspective
Uncertainty in the two-year perspective
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
“It is hard to predict what will be with the activities of our
enterprise in 2 years“, % of answers
% of enterprises that have no idea about their
plans for 2 years didn’t change significantly
The share of enterprises planning to extend
activity in 2 years decreased
42,3
54,2
51,9
56
57,4
56
57,7
56,5
60,8
55,0
56,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
37,5 31,6 30,4 31,6 29,8 28,2 29,7 24,4 23,1 25,9 23,1
56,3
56,7 60,4 60,8 64,6 66,1 63,4 71,4 74,0 68,2 69,2
6,3 11,6 9,3 7,5 5,6 5,7 6,9 4,1 2,9 6,0 7,7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
Yes, I'm planning to extend Planning to stay at the current level Planning to lower activity
Uncertainty in 6-months perspective
decreased, while 3-month continues to increase
Half-year horizon Three-month horizon
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
Export Production Sales Number of
workers
New orders
% that no answer about 3 months changes on...
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22
Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
20,4%
16,0%
22,6%
18,4%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
% that no answer the questions about 6 months changes on...
No answer on business activity at the enterprise in six month
No answer on economic environment in six month
6 months perspective: current assessments
improved again, expectations gradually decreasing
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Business activity at the enterprise Overall economic environment in the country
-0,36
-0,32
-0,20-0,22
-0,09
-0,16
-0,33
-0,24
-0,14
-0,11-0,10
-0,02
-0,07
0,00
-0,09
-0,04
0,07
0,15
0,12
0,03
0,11
-0,09
-0,18
0,01
0,15
0,34
0,48 0,46
0,43
0,46
0,40
0,37
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Business activity at the enterprise Expected business activity at the enterprise
-0,54
-0,44
-0,37
-0,28
-0,20
-0,31
-0,34
-0,28
-0,20
-0,14
-0,10
-0,07-0,08
-0,03
-0,09-0,07
0,01
0,16
0,090,01
0,12
-0,12
-0,23
0,01
0,11
0,30
0,50
0,43 0,43 0,41
0,38
0,38
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Current overall economic environment Expected overall economic environment
Enterprises’ past
performances
and expectations
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Is the recovery of production over?
In August 2023, there were no changes in %
capacity utilization structure compared to
“before February 2022.”
• % of enterprises operating at almost full
and at full capacity is still relatively high:
• 7% of enterprises are working at full
capacity (100% or more), the same as
in July
• The share of enterprises working at
almost full capacity (75%-99%) is 50%
(in July it was 52%)
• % of enterprises that do not operate at all
remains without significant changes since
last autumn (2% in August and 3% in July)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
10 8
4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 2
17
14
12
7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 2
16
17
16
14 13 16
18
16 16 18 14
14
11 10 12 11
26
19
23
33
30
33 27 30 29 25
26
24 27
24 24 28
17
30 36
36
41
36 43 44 43 44 47
50 49 53 52
50
15 12 10 8 8 8 4 6 5 8 8 9 7 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
% of capacity utilization compared to "before February
24, 2022", % of respondents
0% capacity utilzation up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% capacity utilization
Industrial Confidence Indicator
ICI= PI+VNO+(-SFG)/3
ICI is quite positive
In August compared to July, the value of the
ICI increased from 0.12 to 0.17
Fluctuations of index component are the
following:
• The production expectation (PI) slightly
increased from 0.43 to 0.46
• Component stocks of finished goods (SFG)
decreased from -0.16 to -0.18
• Component volume of new orders (VNO)
increased almost twice, from -0.24 to -0.14
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
-0,02
0,02
0,05
0,03
0,06
0,04
0,00
0,08
0,13
0,14
0,19
0,14
0,15 0,15
0,12
0,17
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Production optimism is growing
In August vs. July (expectations)
• The share of enterprises that planned growth of
production in the next 3-4 months increased
(from 44,2% in July to 47,6% in August)
• The share of enterprises that planned decrease in
production reminded without changes (4.0% to
3,9%
• The share of enterprises that plan to have no
change in production during the next three
months decreased from 51.8% to 48.5%
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
-0,55
-0,30
-0,12-0,09
0,05
-0,03
-0,13-0,14
-0,04-0,06
0,18
0,24
0,20 0,20
0,13
0,18
0,12
0,22 0,24
0,20
0,32
0,17
0,04
0,23
0,33
0,47
0,58
0,45 0,47 0,44 0,43
0,46
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Production Production exp.
Production, balance indicators
Export: improved (a bit) past performance and expectations
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
-0,42
-0,48
-0,31
-0,24
-0,21
-0,15
-0,18
-0,11
-0,08-0,09
0,09 0,11
0,06 0,06
-0,01
0,08
0,07
0,11
0,14 0,12
0,22
0,13
0,00
0,23 0,24
0,33
0,49
0,37 0,37
0,33
0,37
0,38
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep,23
Export Export exp.
In August vs. July (past performance)
• The share of enterprises reporting growth of export
increased from 20.5% to 26.1%
• The share of enterprises informing reducing export
was almost unchanged (23,2% in July and 21,0 % in
August)
• The share of enterprises that have no change in
export volumes during the next three months
decreased from 56.3% to 52.9%
Export, balance indicators
Sales and new orders: Optimism is growing?
Sales New orders
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
-0,48
-0,36
-0,16
-0,09
0,01 -0,03
-0,14-0,14
-0,02
-0,06
0,18
0,23 0,20 0,18
0,12
0,18
0,11
0,23 0,23 0,20
0,33
0,19
0,04
0,24
0,32
0,47
0,59
0,46 0,48
0,43 0,44
0,47
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Sales Sales exp.
-0,52
-0,30
-0,19
-0,020,01
-0,03
-0,11
-0,05
0,02
-0,04
0,20 0,23
0,18
0,14 0,12
0,16
0,10
0,19
0,25 0,23
0,34
0,21
0,15
0,29
0,33
0,44
0,59
0,45 0,45 0,42 0,41
0,42
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
New orders New orders exp.
The order book has not changed
In August 2023, the order book for the
surveyed enterprises remained at the
previous level
• The average term for new
orders remains at 2 months
(median) after declining from
three months in January-April
2023
• 52% of enterprises have orders
for up to 2 months. This share
has remained almost without
changes since May 2023
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #15, (07/2023) 27
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
0%
20%
40%
60%
Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months
6 to 11 months 12 months or more Median
Employment
and labor
market
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Employment: an increase in number of workers are observed
Number of workers Number of workers on forced leave
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
• % of enterprises planning employment growth almost don’t change
(6.6% in July and 7.0% in August)
• % of enterprises intending to reduce the number of employees decrease
from 4.3% to 2.3%
• % of enterprises at which no changes in employment are expected
almost don’t change (89.1% in July and 90.7% in August)
• % of enterprises that will increase the number of employees on forced
leave slightly decrease from 2.2% to 1.3%
• % of enterprises that are going to reduce employees on forced leave
almost don’t change (25.7% in July and 24.6% in August)
• % unchanged slightly increased (from 72.1% to 73.6%)
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov,22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Number of workers Number of workers exp.
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Sep.23
Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.
Problems in finding workers decreased?
Problems with finding workers
In August, the problems with finding both
skilled and unskilled workers decreased
Skilled workers:
• % of those who reported that it is more difficult
to find such workers decreased (from 27.5% to
25.4%). At the same time % of those to whom it
is easier to search for skilled workers remains
almost without changes (1.5% in July and 1.2%
in August)
Unskilled workers:
• % of those who report that it is easy to find
them decreased a bit (5.2% in July and 4.4% in
August) as well as % of those to whom this is
harder decreased a bit (from 18.7% in July to
17.6% in August)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
0,24
0,18
0,06
0,09
0,17
0,11
0,12
0,19
0,26
0,14
0,25
0,21
0,23
0,27
0,23
-0,01
-0,06
-0,07 -0,07
0,09
0,02
0,05
0,06
0,14
0,06
0,11 0,11
0,17
0,16
0,14
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Sep.22
Oct.22
Nov.22
Dec.22
Jan.23
Feb.23
Mar.23
Apr.23
May.23
Jun.23
Jul.23
Aug.23
Skilled workers Unskilled workers
Assessments of
government’s
economic policy and
expected policy
actions (reforms)
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
% of uncertainty in assessments of government’s
economic policy increased
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
• In August 2023, the share of positive assessments of government policy on business support continued to decrease
(from 10% in July to 8%) and is at the lowest level since the beginning of this survey
• Businesses still mostly neutrally assess the government policy on business support: at the same time, this % has
been decreasing for the forth month in a row
• The share of the undecided respondents sharply increased from 18% in July to 27% in August
Expected events : “end of the war”, “better business climate”
• End of the war is the main
expectation of the surveyed
businesses
• Simplification of legal requirements
for businesses has increased in
importance,
it implies that adaptation to wartime
conditions (among others) puts unresolved
“before-war”, and “traditional” problems
of the business environment on the
agenda.
• Deoccupation of the territories of
Ukraine is expected less often –
possibly indicating the adaptation of
businesses to new market conditions
• Fewer businesses expect hryvnia
devaluation to stop,
which reflects more stable foreign
currency exchange rate in Ukraine in mid-
2023
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
New monthly enterprise survey. Methodology
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and
Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current
economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key
economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity
indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We
will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on
production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk,
Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy,
Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 16-th wave lasted from August 15 to August 31, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in August 2023 with July
2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (August 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the
question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
Our contacts
website: www.ier.com.ua
e-mail: rubanik@ier.kyiv.ua
kuziakiv@ier.kyiv.ua
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IER.Kyiv/
Twitter (in English only): https://twitter.com/IER_Kyiv

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  • 1. Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the IER Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the IER Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the IER Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the IER Kyiv, September 11, 2023 “There’s No Time Like The Present” Main economic trends in August 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
  • 2. ABOUT THE NEW RAPID ENTERPRISES SURVEY Monthly survey SAMPLE: 539 enterprises were surveyed in August Enterprises of all sizes Geography: 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine Sectors: Industry + (Retail, Agro) 16 surveys have already been conducted (since May 2022) The recent data were collected on August 15 - 31, 2023 New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 3. Main results 1 Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty and an increase in short-term uncertainty, the enterprises’ performance improved, and business expectations are still high and growing again New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 4. Main results 2: Uncertainty Uncertainty in the 6-month perspective decreased Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective has been slightly increasing already for the third month in a row Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective remains high New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 5. Main results 3: business activity, production, export indicators Current assessments of the enterprises’ business activity and overall economic environment improved while expectations gradually decreased but remained high. The share of enterprises operating at almost full and at full capacity remains without significant changes (57% vs 59% in July) Production performance vs previous months improved, and 3-month expectations are growing again Export past performance and expectations are improved New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 6. Main results 4: impediments, policy, expected events % of respondents that consider that it is dangerous to work remained with changes ( 33%) The importance of interruptions in electricity as an impediment remained at the same level (30%) % of uncertainty in assessments of the government’s economic policy sharply increased NEW. “End of war” and “good business climate” are the main expected events by businesses. New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 7. Ent/2 023) Impediments to doing business in wartime New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 8. The main impediments to doing business in wartime, % respondents There were no significant changes for most of the impediments in August vs. July 2023 • Rising prices for raw materials and goods have remained in the leading position for several months in a row, in August their importance increased • Logistical problems also holds the 2nd place in the list of obstacles • “Electricity interruptions”, despite the slight increase of absolute value from 32% to 34%, moved up from the 7th to the 5th place • Lack of personnel after decrease of its absolute value moved from the 3rd to the 4th place • At the same time, the obstacle “it is dangerous to work” remains unchanged in value and at the 6th place in the ranking • Corruption and pressure from law enforcement agencies still is not a significant problem New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 9. Interruptions of electricity is still a problem New Monthly Ent/2 023) New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 10. ”Electricity” remains an impediment to doing business • In August 2023, the percentage of respondents who indicated electricity and water supply as impediment to doing business slightly increased • In the list of obstacles, interruptions in electricity moved from 7th to 5th place New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) 12% 12% 11% 5% 4% 51% 78% 80% 79% 68% 46% 29% 32% 37% 32% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Interruptions with electricity as impediment for doing business, % of respondents
  • 11. ”Electricity” as an impediment to doing business varies for industries There are two industries where the share of respondents who believe that access to electricity is a problem for their business exceeds 50% (which is one and a half times more than the average). This is machinery building and metal processing. Among enterprises of the food industry, which was a leader in adapting to work in wartime conditions, a quarter of respondents consider access to electricity a problem (this is less than the average) Printing companies (less than 15%) complained about the lack of electricity the least often. New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) 14,3 25,6 26,1 30,4 32,1 33,3 34,0 37,8 50,0 57,6 -5,0 5,0 15,0 25,0 35,0 45,0 55,0 65,0 Printing Food Industry Wood processing Chemical Other industries Construction Material Ukraine Textile Industry Metal processing Machinery Building Electricity as impediment to doing business by industries, % of respondents
  • 12. It is still dangerous to work New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 13. The importance of “it is dangerous to work” as an impediment to doing business did not change • In August 2023, the share of enterprises that reported that it was dangerous to work is 33% (as it was in July) • In the list of obstacles, “it is dangerous to work“ remains at the 6th place New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) 34% 30% 27% 26% 18% 33% 46% 47% 39% 40% 31% 25% 32% 31% 33% 33% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 "It is dangerous to work", % of respondents
  • 14. “It is dangerous to work” in different dimensions New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) "It is dangerous to work" by oblast, % of respondents • % of enterprises large enterprises that chose “it is dangerous to work“ slightly decreased, while % for micro enterprises increased • 85+% of respondents in Poltavska, Zhytomyrska and Vinnytska oblast consider insecure conditions as an impediment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% up to 10 11--50 51-250 250+ "It is dangerous to work" by the size groups, % respondents Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
  • 15. August to August: changes over the past year New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 16. Business activity at enterprises compared to “how it was a year ago" New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) Business activity at the enterprises compared to “how it was a year ago" grew after slightly decreasing • 51.7% consider the situation better than it was a year ago • 36.2% say that “nothing has changed” • 12.1% say that the situation is worse In August vs. July, the absolute value of the indicator for micro business significantly worsened, while for the medium enterprises improved. Small and large enterprises remain without significant changes -0,69 -0,68 -0,74 -0,78 -0,75 -0,02 0,20 0,42 0,44 0,37 0,40 -1,00 -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Balance between better/worse assessments comparing to the previous year -1,00 -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Balance between better/worse assessments comparing to the previous year (by size) Micro Small Medium Large
  • 17. Future and Uncertainty New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 18. Long-term uncertainty remains without significant changes Expectations in the two-year perspective Uncertainty in the two-year perspective New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) “It is hard to predict what will be with the activities of our enterprise in 2 years“, % of answers % of enterprises that have no idea about their plans for 2 years didn’t change significantly The share of enterprises planning to extend activity in 2 years decreased 42,3 54,2 51,9 56 57,4 56 57,7 56,5 60,8 55,0 56,4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 37,5 31,6 30,4 31,6 29,8 28,2 29,7 24,4 23,1 25,9 23,1 56,3 56,7 60,4 60,8 64,6 66,1 63,4 71,4 74,0 68,2 69,2 6,3 11,6 9,3 7,5 5,6 5,7 6,9 4,1 2,9 6,0 7,7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Yes, I'm planning to extend Planning to stay at the current level Planning to lower activity
  • 19. Uncertainty in 6-months perspective decreased, while 3-month continues to increase Half-year horizon Three-month horizon New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% Export Production Sales Number of workers New orders % that no answer about 3 months changes on... May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 20,4% 16,0% 22,6% 18,4% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 % that no answer the questions about 6 months changes on... No answer on business activity at the enterprise in six month No answer on economic environment in six month
  • 20. 6 months perspective: current assessments improved again, expectations gradually decreasing New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) Business activity at the enterprise Overall economic environment in the country -0,36 -0,32 -0,20-0,22 -0,09 -0,16 -0,33 -0,24 -0,14 -0,11-0,10 -0,02 -0,07 0,00 -0,09 -0,04 0,07 0,15 0,12 0,03 0,11 -0,09 -0,18 0,01 0,15 0,34 0,48 0,46 0,43 0,46 0,40 0,37 -0,50 -0,40 -0,30 -0,20 -0,10 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Business activity at the enterprise Expected business activity at the enterprise -0,54 -0,44 -0,37 -0,28 -0,20 -0,31 -0,34 -0,28 -0,20 -0,14 -0,10 -0,07-0,08 -0,03 -0,09-0,07 0,01 0,16 0,090,01 0,12 -0,12 -0,23 0,01 0,11 0,30 0,50 0,43 0,43 0,41 0,38 0,38 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Current overall economic environment Expected overall economic environment
  • 21. Enterprises’ past performances and expectations New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 22. Is the recovery of production over? In August 2023, there were no changes in % capacity utilization structure compared to “before February 2022.” • % of enterprises operating at almost full and at full capacity is still relatively high: • 7% of enterprises are working at full capacity (100% or more), the same as in July • The share of enterprises working at almost full capacity (75%-99%) is 50% (in July it was 52%) • % of enterprises that do not operate at all remains without significant changes since last autumn (2% in August and 3% in July) New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) 10 8 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 2 17 14 12 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 2 16 17 16 14 13 16 18 16 16 18 14 14 11 10 12 11 26 19 23 33 30 33 27 30 29 25 26 24 27 24 24 28 17 30 36 36 41 36 43 44 43 44 47 50 49 53 52 50 15 12 10 8 8 8 4 6 5 8 8 9 7 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 % of capacity utilization compared to "before February 24, 2022", % of respondents 0% capacity utilzation up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% capacity utilization
  • 23. Industrial Confidence Indicator ICI= PI+VNO+(-SFG)/3 ICI is quite positive In August compared to July, the value of the ICI increased from 0.12 to 0.17 Fluctuations of index component are the following: • The production expectation (PI) slightly increased from 0.43 to 0.46 • Component stocks of finished goods (SFG) decreased from -0.16 to -0.18 • Component volume of new orders (VNO) increased almost twice, from -0.24 to -0.14 New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) -0,02 0,02 0,05 0,03 0,06 0,04 0,00 0,08 0,13 0,14 0,19 0,14 0,15 0,15 0,12 0,17 -0,05 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23
  • 24. Production optimism is growing In August vs. July (expectations) • The share of enterprises that planned growth of production in the next 3-4 months increased (from 44,2% in July to 47,6% in August) • The share of enterprises that planned decrease in production reminded without changes (4.0% to 3,9% • The share of enterprises that plan to have no change in production during the next three months decreased from 51.8% to 48.5% New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) -0,55 -0,30 -0,12-0,09 0,05 -0,03 -0,13-0,14 -0,04-0,06 0,18 0,24 0,20 0,20 0,13 0,18 0,12 0,22 0,24 0,20 0,32 0,17 0,04 0,23 0,33 0,47 0,58 0,45 0,47 0,44 0,43 0,46 -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Production Production exp. Production, balance indicators
  • 25. Export: improved (a bit) past performance and expectations New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) -0,42 -0,48 -0,31 -0,24 -0,21 -0,15 -0,18 -0,11 -0,08-0,09 0,09 0,11 0,06 0,06 -0,01 0,08 0,07 0,11 0,14 0,12 0,22 0,13 0,00 0,23 0,24 0,33 0,49 0,37 0,37 0,33 0,37 0,38 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep,23 Export Export exp. In August vs. July (past performance) • The share of enterprises reporting growth of export increased from 20.5% to 26.1% • The share of enterprises informing reducing export was almost unchanged (23,2% in July and 21,0 % in August) • The share of enterprises that have no change in export volumes during the next three months decreased from 56.3% to 52.9% Export, balance indicators
  • 26. Sales and new orders: Optimism is growing? Sales New orders New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) -0,48 -0,36 -0,16 -0,09 0,01 -0,03 -0,14-0,14 -0,02 -0,06 0,18 0,23 0,20 0,18 0,12 0,18 0,11 0,23 0,23 0,20 0,33 0,19 0,04 0,24 0,32 0,47 0,59 0,46 0,48 0,43 0,44 0,47 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Sales Sales exp. -0,52 -0,30 -0,19 -0,020,01 -0,03 -0,11 -0,05 0,02 -0,04 0,20 0,23 0,18 0,14 0,12 0,16 0,10 0,19 0,25 0,23 0,34 0,21 0,15 0,29 0,33 0,44 0,59 0,45 0,45 0,42 0,41 0,42 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 New orders New orders exp.
  • 27. The order book has not changed In August 2023, the order book for the surveyed enterprises remained at the previous level • The average term for new orders remains at 2 months (median) after declining from three months in January-April 2023 • 52% of enterprises have orders for up to 2 months. This share has remained almost without changes since May 2023 New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #15, (07/2023) 27 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 0% 20% 40% 60% Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months 6 to 11 months 12 months or more Median
  • 28. Employment and labor market New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 29. Employment: an increase in number of workers are observed Number of workers Number of workers on forced leave New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) • % of enterprises planning employment growth almost don’t change (6.6% in July and 7.0% in August) • % of enterprises intending to reduce the number of employees decrease from 4.3% to 2.3% • % of enterprises at which no changes in employment are expected almost don’t change (89.1% in July and 90.7% in August) • % of enterprises that will increase the number of employees on forced leave slightly decrease from 2.2% to 1.3% • % of enterprises that are going to reduce employees on forced leave almost don’t change (25.7% in July and 24.6% in August) • % unchanged slightly increased (from 72.1% to 73.6%) -0,60 -0,50 -0,40 -0,30 -0,20 -0,10 0,00 0,10 0,20 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov,22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Number of workers Number of workers exp. -0,40 -0,30 -0,20 -0,10 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Sep.23 Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.
  • 30. Problems in finding workers decreased? Problems with finding workers In August, the problems with finding both skilled and unskilled workers decreased Skilled workers: • % of those who reported that it is more difficult to find such workers decreased (from 27.5% to 25.4%). At the same time % of those to whom it is easier to search for skilled workers remains almost without changes (1.5% in July and 1.2% in August) Unskilled workers: • % of those who report that it is easy to find them decreased a bit (5.2% in July and 4.4% in August) as well as % of those to whom this is harder decreased a bit (from 18.7% in July to 17.6% in August) New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) 0,24 0,18 0,06 0,09 0,17 0,11 0,12 0,19 0,26 0,14 0,25 0,21 0,23 0,27 0,23 -0,01 -0,06 -0,07 -0,07 0,09 0,02 0,05 0,06 0,14 0,06 0,11 0,11 0,17 0,16 0,14 -0,10 -0,05 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23 Mar.23 Apr.23 May.23 Jun.23 Jul.23 Aug.23 Skilled workers Unskilled workers
  • 31. Assessments of government’s economic policy and expected policy actions (reforms) New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 32. % of uncertainty in assessments of government’s economic policy increased New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023) • In August 2023, the share of positive assessments of government policy on business support continued to decrease (from 10% in July to 8%) and is at the lowest level since the beginning of this survey • Businesses still mostly neutrally assess the government policy on business support: at the same time, this % has been decreasing for the forth month in a row • The share of the undecided respondents sharply increased from 18% in July to 27% in August
  • 33. Expected events : “end of the war”, “better business climate” • End of the war is the main expectation of the surveyed businesses • Simplification of legal requirements for businesses has increased in importance, it implies that adaptation to wartime conditions (among others) puts unresolved “before-war”, and “traditional” problems of the business environment on the agenda. • Deoccupation of the territories of Ukraine is expected less often – possibly indicating the adaptation of businesses to new market conditions • Fewer businesses expect hryvnia devaluation to stop, which reflects more stable foreign currency exchange rate in Ukraine in mid- 2023 New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 34. New monthly enterprise survey. Methodology The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers. The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy. This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city. The field stage of the 16-th wave lasted from August 15 to August 31, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in August 2023 with July 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (August 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #16, (08/2023)
  • 35. Our contacts website: www.ier.com.ua e-mail: rubanik@ier.kyiv.ua kuziakiv@ier.kyiv.ua Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IER.Kyiv/ Twitter (in English only): https://twitter.com/IER_Kyiv