The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
March 2011 - Electricity regulation needs to be rechargedFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
July 2014 - How to improve education qualityFGV Brazil
Education in Brazil has advanced in terms of school access, but its quality is still questionable. That calls not just for more and better investments in education but perhaps also for reformulation of the entire educational system.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
August 2014 - Can Brazil find a route to competitiveness?FGV Brazil
If it is to join up with global production chains, Brazil must confront old problems that inhibit the competitiveness of industry.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
A proposed constitutional amendment to limit government spending renews the debate about the role of the Brazilian government in the economy, past and present.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2011 – Can Brazil become a creative economy?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2016 - Recovery still uncertainFGV Brazil
Improvement in some indicators suggests that the recession may be bottoming out, but there are still many uncertainties about the likely speed of an economic recovery.
This is the last edition of The Brazilian Economy, one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
April 2013 - Brazil: Is government economic activism misdirected?FGV Brazil
In response to lost investment and growth, government policies to stimulate the economy have fallen short of success—perhaps because the policies themselves are part of the problem.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
March 2011 - Electricity regulation needs to be rechargedFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
July 2014 - How to improve education qualityFGV Brazil
Education in Brazil has advanced in terms of school access, but its quality is still questionable. That calls not just for more and better investments in education but perhaps also for reformulation of the entire educational system.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
August 2014 - Can Brazil find a route to competitiveness?FGV Brazil
If it is to join up with global production chains, Brazil must confront old problems that inhibit the competitiveness of industry.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
A proposed constitutional amendment to limit government spending renews the debate about the role of the Brazilian government in the economy, past and present.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2011 – Can Brazil become a creative economy?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2016 - Recovery still uncertainFGV Brazil
Improvement in some indicators suggests that the recession may be bottoming out, but there are still many uncertainties about the likely speed of an economic recovery.
This is the last edition of The Brazilian Economy, one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
April 2013 - Brazil: Is government economic activism misdirected?FGV Brazil
In response to lost investment and growth, government policies to stimulate the economy have fallen short of success—perhaps because the policies themselves are part of the problem.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
May 2014 - Is time running out for the minimum wage policy?FGV Brazil
Economists analyze proposals for revising minimum wage policy in 2015 and ask, Should it be based on productivity?
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2012 - Electric energy sector needs rewiringFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
February 2014 - 20 years after the Real Plan, why does growth remain elusive?FGV Brazil
Brazil celebrates two decades of monetary stabilization and introduction of the real , but has yet to find the formula for sustained growth.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
March 2013 - Fuel price policy: Who wins?FGV Brazil
International oil prices are up, demand for oil products in brazil is growing, but the main brazilian oil company is suffering from lower production and profits. this is more than just a corporate problem.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2014 - Fighting through water and sanitation problemsFGV Brazil
Public managers and the private sector join forces to overcome Brazil’s longstanding difficulties in providing clean water and sanitation services.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
April 2011 - Building for a more competitive BrazilFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
May 2013 - Can the government foster innovation?FGV Brazil
An unprecedented multibillion-real plan is the latest federal government initiative to stimulate investment in research, development, and innovation (RD & I), diversify the production of goods and services, and improve productivity.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
October 2011 - Recycling: Who pays for it?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2013 - Where is the labor market heading?FGV Brazil
The labor market is correcting the excessive growth that was inconsistent with the pace of economic expansion. The question is whether policies to curb inflation and wage increases may adversely affect the gradual accommodation of the labor market and bring about deterioration in incomes, employment, and confidence.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
February 2013 - No clear view of the futureFGV Brazil
After negotiating a path full of obstacles in 2012, mainly put up by the economic problems of the major world economies, Brazilian exporters have started the year hoping to recover the ground they lost last year, when foreign sales fell by 5.3% and the trade surplus plunged 34.7%. Exporters are not sure, however, that this time road conditions will be much better.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2013 - The World Cup, the Olympics—and BeyondFGV Brazil
On June 12, 2014, when brazil officially welcomes the teams competing in the World Cup, the country will be through the first half of a tough game to coordinate public and private investments to ensure the success of the mega event in all its dimensions.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2014 - Time for a route correctionFGV Brazil
With performance less than is necessary to meet Brazil's infrastructure demands and with funding scarce, investment needs to become more efficient.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
With Michel Temer's government conquering their first victories in congress, how will Brazil's Economy line up for the following months? This question is answered in this month's Focus Economics Report issued by the Economics Team of the UK Mission in Brazil.
May 2014 - Is time running out for the minimum wage policy?FGV Brazil
Economists analyze proposals for revising minimum wage policy in 2015 and ask, Should it be based on productivity?
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2012 - Electric energy sector needs rewiringFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
February 2014 - 20 years after the Real Plan, why does growth remain elusive?FGV Brazil
Brazil celebrates two decades of monetary stabilization and introduction of the real , but has yet to find the formula for sustained growth.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
March 2013 - Fuel price policy: Who wins?FGV Brazil
International oil prices are up, demand for oil products in brazil is growing, but the main brazilian oil company is suffering from lower production and profits. this is more than just a corporate problem.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2014 - Fighting through water and sanitation problemsFGV Brazil
Public managers and the private sector join forces to overcome Brazil’s longstanding difficulties in providing clean water and sanitation services.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
April 2011 - Building for a more competitive BrazilFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
May 2013 - Can the government foster innovation?FGV Brazil
An unprecedented multibillion-real plan is the latest federal government initiative to stimulate investment in research, development, and innovation (RD & I), diversify the production of goods and services, and improve productivity.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
October 2011 - Recycling: Who pays for it?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2013 - Where is the labor market heading?FGV Brazil
The labor market is correcting the excessive growth that was inconsistent with the pace of economic expansion. The question is whether policies to curb inflation and wage increases may adversely affect the gradual accommodation of the labor market and bring about deterioration in incomes, employment, and confidence.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
February 2013 - No clear view of the futureFGV Brazil
After negotiating a path full of obstacles in 2012, mainly put up by the economic problems of the major world economies, Brazilian exporters have started the year hoping to recover the ground they lost last year, when foreign sales fell by 5.3% and the trade surplus plunged 34.7%. Exporters are not sure, however, that this time road conditions will be much better.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2013 - The World Cup, the Olympics—and BeyondFGV Brazil
On June 12, 2014, when brazil officially welcomes the teams competing in the World Cup, the country will be through the first half of a tough game to coordinate public and private investments to ensure the success of the mega event in all its dimensions.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
September 2014 - Time for a route correctionFGV Brazil
With performance less than is necessary to meet Brazil's infrastructure demands and with funding scarce, investment needs to become more efficient.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
With Michel Temer's government conquering their first victories in congress, how will Brazil's Economy line up for the following months? This question is answered in this month's Focus Economics Report issued by the Economics Team of the UK Mission in Brazil.
August 2013 - Brazil’s rising trade imbalanceFGV Brazil
The Brazilian trade balance deficit in the first seven months of 2013 was US$5 billion, the highest recorded since 1993. It has deeply disappointed the expectations of analysts, who hoped for a recovery last July.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The goal of the Very Open Data Project is to provide a software-technical foundation for this exchange of data, more specifically to provide an open database platform for data from the raw data coming from experimental measurements or models through intermediate manipulations to finally published results. The sheer expanse of the amount data involved creates some unique software-technical challenges. One of these challenges is addressed in the part of the study presented here, namely to characterize scientific data (with the initial focus being detailed chemistry data from the combustion kinetic community), so that efficient searches can be made. A formalization of this characterization comes in the form of schemas of descriptions of tags and keywords describing data and ontologies describing the relationship between data types and the relationship between the characterizations themselves. These will be translated to meta-data tags connected to the data points within a non-relational data of data for the community.
The focus of the initial work will be on data and its accessibility. As the project progresses, the emphasis will shift on not only having available data accessible for the community, but that the community itself will be able to, with emphasis on minimal effort, will be able contribute their own data. This will involve, for example, the concepts of the ‘electronic lab notebook’ and the existence and availability of extensive concept extraction tools, primarily from the chemical informatics field.
ChemConnect: Characterizing CombusAon KineAc Data with ontologies and meta-‐...Edward Blurock
ChemConnect is a database that interconnects fine-grained information extracted from chemical kinetic and thermodynamic sources such as
CHEMKIN mechanism files, NASA polynomial files, and even the information behind automatic generation files.
The key to the interconnection is the Resource Description Framework (RDF) from Semantic Web technologies. The RDF is a triplet where an object item (first) is associated through a descriptor (second) to a subject item.
In this way the information of the object is connected (through the descriptor) to the subject.
In ChemConnect the object is word (text) and the subject can be text or a database item. The search mechanism within ChemConnect uses the object and subject text as search strings.
The presentation also contains an brief introduction to cloud computing.
This was presented at the COST Action 1404 SMARTCATS workshop on Databases and Systems Use Cases (http//http://www.smartcats.eu/wg4ws1dp/)
May 2011 - CHINA: Changes in development model?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
July 2016 - Unemployment: How much longer?FGV Brazil
The current distressed labor market is likely to take a long time to improve.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2016 - Addressing the water and sanitation déficitFGV Brazil
Brazil needs to address the low efficiency of its investment in costly water and sanitation projects that delay development.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
August 2010 - Future challenges: Innovation and competitivenessFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
June 2015 - Water: How to turn the tap back onFGV Brazil
The loss of pace in the Brazilian economy, beginning in 2011 and worsening ever since, surprised many analysts and is still heavily debated. There is no consensus on whether the deceleration arose from international or internal factors.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
October 2010 - Construction takes a great leap forwardFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Expanding the simplified tax system for small businesses may have higher costs and fewer productivity, employment, and income distribution benefits.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
January 2011 - Brazil: Moving Up in the world?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Brazil needs to address the low efficiency of its investment in costly water and sanitation projects that delay development.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
November 2014 - Is inclusive growth being derailed?FGV Brazil
Next year could be a real turning point for Brazil, depending on how re-elected President Dilma Rousseff and her administration address two major challenges.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
October 2012 - Will the public-private partnership work?FGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
November 2011 - Brazil: World’s breadbasketFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
October 2013 - Can Brazil get its cities moving?FGV Brazil
Traffic jams are strangling Brazil’s large cities and causing billions of dollars in losses, requiring substantive changes in urban planning. A study by Marcos Cintra, vice president, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), found that the opportunity cost of time lost by people in traffic jams and the financial cost of additional spending on fuel, goods transport, and pollution controls reached US$20 billion in São Paulo city in 2012.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
April 2010 - Competition and credit boomFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Investors, analysts, and economists who are concerned about the direction of fiscal policy, are becoming ever more skeptical about the direction of Brazil’s economy. Though all is not yet lost, if the country is to grow sustainably, the government must make a difficult choice between social programs and the tax burden.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on trackFGV Brazil
Brazil’s growth will not resume without policies to make Brazilian business more productive. The end of the first quarter was marked by the realization that tight monetary and fiscal policies may take time to correct the economy’s imbalances and that high inflation and low growth may last longer than hoped.
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
December 2010 - Domestic Market: Set to soarFGV Brazil
The Brazilian Economy is one of the oldest publications for expert economic analysis of both the Brazilian and international economies. Through this publication, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics and Finance (FGV/IBRE) compares different periods of the economy, assessing both macroeconomic considerations and scenarios related to finance, administration, marketing, management, insurance, statistics, and price indices.
For more information, and Brazilian economic index results, visit: http://bit.ly/1EA1Loz
Similar to June 2011 - Reinventing innovation (20)
What are the chances of your country winning the 2018 World Cup?
FGV's mathematical model predicts that Brazil has the greatest chances of winning.
http://fgv.br/emap/copa-2018
Interval observer for uncertain time-varying SIR-SI model of vector-borne dis...FGV Brazil
The issue of state estimation is considered for an SIR-SI model describing a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever, with seasonal variations and uncertainties in the transmission rates. Assuming continuous measurement of the number of new infectives in the host population per unit time, a class of interval observers with estimate-dependent gain is constructed, and asymptotic error bounds are provided. The synthesis method is based on the search for a common linear Lyapunov function for monotone systems representing the evolution of the estimation errors.
Date: 2017
Authors:
Soledad Aronna, Maria
Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre
Ensuring successful introduction of Wolbachia in natural populations of Aedes...FGV Brazil
The control of the spread of dengue fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in populations of the vector Aedes aegypti, is presently one of the most promising tools for eliminating dengue, in the absence of an efficient vaccine. The success of this operation requires locally careful planning to determine the adequate number of individuals carrying the wolbachia parasite that need to be introduced into the natural population. The introduced mosquitoes are expected to eventually replace the Wolbachia-free population and guarantee permanent protection against the transmission of dengue to human. In this study, we propose and analyze a model describing the fundamental aspects of the competition between mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia and mosquitoes free of the parasite. We then use feedback control techniques to devise an introduction protocol which is proved to guarantee that the population converges to a stable equilibrium where the totality of mosquitoes carry Wolbachia.
Date: 2015-03-19
Authors:
Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre
Soledad Aronna, Maria
Coelho, Flávio Codeço
Silva, Moacyr da
The resource curse reloaded: revisiting the Dutch disease with economic compl...FGV Brazil
This paper shows that the Dutch disease can be more formally characterised as low economic complexity using ECI-type indicators; there is a solid and robust inverse relationship between exports concentrating on natural resources and economic complexity as measured by complexity indicators for a database of 122 countries from 1963 to 2013. In a large majority of cases, oil answers for shares in excess of 50% of exports. In addition to empirical panel analysis, we address case studies concerned with Indonesia and Nigeria and introduce a brief review of the theoretical literature on the topic. Indonesia is considered in the literature as a good example in avoiding the negative effects of the Dutch disease, whereas Nigeria is taken as a bad example in terms of institutions and policies adopted during the seventies and eighties. The empirical results show that complexity analysis and Big Data may offer significant contributions to the still-current debate surrounding the Dutch disease.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de
Gala, Paulo
The Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) was right: scale-free comple...FGV Brazil
The main purpose of this paper is to apply big-data and scale-free complex network techniques to the study of world trade, with a specific focus on the investigation of ECLA and structuralist ideas. A secondary objective is to illustrate the potentialities of the use of the new science of complex networks in economics, in what has been recently referred to as an econophysics research agenda. We work with a trade network of 101 countries and 762 products (SITC-4) which generated 1,756,224 trade links in 2013. The empirical results based on network analysis and computational methods reported here point in the direction of what ECLA economists used to argue; countries with higher income per capita concentrate in producing and exporting manufactured and complex goods at the center of the trade network; countries with lower income per capita specialize in producing and exporting non-complex commodities at the network’s periphery.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Gala, Paulo
Camargo, Jhean Steffan Martines de
Freitas, Elton
Cost of equity estimation for the Brazilian market: a test of the Goldman Sac...FGV Brazil
As an approach to determining the degree of integration of the Brazilian economy, this paper seeks to test the explanatory power of the Goldman Sachs Model for the expected returns by a foreign investor in the Brazilian market during the past eleven years (2004-2014). Using data for the stocks of 57 of the most actively traded firms at the BM&FBovespa, it begins by testing directly the degree of integration of the Brazilian economy during this period, in an attempt to better understand the context in which the model has been used. In sequence, in an indirect test of the Goldman Sachs model, the risk factor betas (market risk and country risk) of the sample stocks were estimated and a panel regression of expected stock returns on these betas was performed. It was found that country risk is not a statistically significant explanation of expected returns, indicating that it is being added in an ad hoc fashion by market practitioners to their cost of equity calculations. Thus, although there is evidence of a positive and significant relationship between systematic risk and return, the results for country risk demonstrate that the Goldman Sachs Model was not a satisfactory explanation of expected returns in the Brazilian market in the past eleven years, leading us to question the validity of its application in practice. By adding a size premium factor to the model, there is evidence of a negative and significant relationship between companies’ size and return, although country risk remains not satisfactory to explain stock expected returns.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Guanais, Luiz Felipe Poli
Sanvicente, Antonio Zoratto
Sheng, Hsia Hua
A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield c...FGV Brazil
This paper proposes a Factor-Augmented Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (FADNS) model to predict the yield curve in the US that relies on a large data set of weekly financial and macroeconomic variables. The FADNS model significantly improves interest rate forecasts relative to the extant models in the literature. For longer horizons, it beats autoregressive alternatives, with a reduction in mean absolute error of up to 40%. For shorter horizons, it offers a good challenge to autoregressive forecasting models, outperforming them for the 7- and 10-year yields. The out-of-sample analysis shows that the good performance comes mostly from the forward-looking nature of the variables we employ. Including them reduces the mean absolute error in 5 basis points on average with respect to models that reflect only past macroeconomic events.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Vieira, Fausto José Araújo
Chague, Fernando Daniel
Fernandes, Marcelo
Improving on daily measures of price discoveryFGV Brazil
We formulate a continuous-time price discovery model in which the price discovery measure varies (stochastically) at daily frequency. We estimate daily measures of price discovery using a kernel-based OLS estimator instead of running separate daily VECM regressions as standard in the literature. We show that our estimator is not only consistent, but also outperforms the standard daily VECM in finite samples. We illustrate our theoretical findings by studying the price discovery process of 10 actively traded stocks in the U.S. from 2007 to 2013.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Dias, Gustavo Fruet
Fernandes, Marcelo
Scherrer, Cristina Mabel
Disentangling the effect of private and public cash flows on firm valueFGV Brazil
This paper presents a simple model for dual-class stock shares, in which common shareholders receive both public and private cash flows (i.e. dividends and any private benefit of holding voting rights) and preferred shareholders only receive public cash flows (i.e. dividends). The dual-class premium is driven not only by the firm's ability to generate cash flows, but also by voting rights. We isolate these two effects in order to identify the role of voting rights on equity-holders' wealth. In particular, we employ a cointegrated VAR model to retrieve the impact of the voting rights value on cash flow rights. We finnd a negative relation between the value of the voting right and the preferred shareholders' wealth for Brazilian cross- listed firms. In addition, we examine the connection between the voting right value and market and firm specific risks.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Autor
Scherrer, Cristina Mabel
Fernandes, Marcelo
Mandatory IFRS adoption in Brazil and firm valueFGV Brazil
Using diff-in-diff approaches and the propensity-score matching, this study focuses on firm-level Tobin´s q and Market-to-book outcomes for Brazilian firms who in 2008 were required by Law 11.638/07 to adopt the full International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by 2010. Brazil’s tier-system of corporate governance standards for publicly-traded firms, its uniquely wholesale adoption of the IFRS, and the previously considerable gap between its national GAAP and IFRS readily lend the scenario to research, which thus far finds small or inconsistent results when focused on IFRS adoption-related outcomes in Europe and China. However, while these features recommend the transitioned Brazilian equity market to analysis, additional unique features, such as its small population size and its limited historical data -- of varied quality – increase the challenge in selecting a suitable empirical methodology. Using quarterly data from 2006-2011, control firms in the Nivel II and Novo Mercado tiers of Bovespa which already complied with higher quality accounting standards are matched to treatment firms in the Regular and Nivel I tiers with similar averaged values of size and sector. Our results suggest that there is a positive impact on Tobin´s q and Market-to-book for firms who are forced to adopt IFRS in Brazil. We can observe the same results when we consider all variables winsorized at 5% level. We also find a positive relation between the firm value (measured by Tobin´s q and Market-to-book) and net income. Firms with higher net income are more likely to have higher Tobin´s q and Market-tobook. In an opposite way, we find a negative relation among firm value, size, Ebit-to-sales, sales growth and PPE-to-sales. All results are statistically significant at 1% level. '
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira
Gallucci Netto, Humberto
Silva, Vinícius Augusto Brunassi
Dotcom bubble and underpricing: conjectures and evidenceFGV Brazil
We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999–2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities generated by the new technologies and their spillover effects across technology industries, investors saw the inflow of a large number of high-growth firms as a sign of high growth rates for the market as a whole. Second, investors interpreted the wave of highly underpriced IPOs as an opportunity to obtain gains by investing in newly public companies. The underpricing resulted from the emergence a large cohort of firms racing for market leadership. Fundamentals pricing at the IPO was part of their strategy. We provide evidence for our conjectures. We show that returns on NASDAQ composite index are explained by the flow of high-growth (or highly underpriced) IPOs; the high underpricing can be fully explained by firms’ characteristics and strategic goals. We also show that, contrary to alternatives explanations, underpricing was not associated with top underwriting, there was no deterioration of issuers’ quality, and top underwriters and analysts became more selective.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Autor
Carvalho, Antonio Gledson de
Pinheiro, Roberto Benjamin
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira
Contingent judicial deference: theory and application to usury lawsFGV Brazil
Legislation that seems unreasonable to courts is less likely to be followed. Building on this premise, we propose a model and obtain two main results. First, the enactment of legislation prohibiting something raises the probability that courts will allow related things not expressly forbidden. In particular, the imposition of an interest rate ceiling can make it more likely that courts will validate contracts with interest rates below the legislated cap. Second, legal uncertainty is greater with legislation that commands little deference from courts than with legislation that commands none. We discuss examples of effects of legislated prohibitions (and, in particular, usury laws) that are consistent with the model.
Date: 2017-03
Authors:
Guimarães, Bernardo
Salama, Bruno Meyerhof
Education quality and returns to schooling: evidence from migrants in BrazilFGV Brazil
We provide a new education quality index for states within a developing country using 2010 Brazilian data. This measure is constructed based on the notion that the financial returns obtained from an additional year of schooling can be
seen as being derived from the value that market forces assign to this education. We use migrant data to estimate returns to schooling of individuals who studied in different states but who work in the same labor market. We find very heterogeneous educational qualities across states: the poorest Brazilian region presents education quality levels that are approximately equal to one-third of the average of all other regions, a gap three times larger than the one suggested by standardized test scores. We compare our index with standardized test scores, educational outcome variables, and public expenditure per schooling stage at the state level, producing new evidence related to education in a large developing country. We conduct an education quality-adjusted development accounting exercise for Brazilian states and find that human capital accounts for 26%-31% of output per worker differences. Adjusting for quality increases human capital’s explanatory power by 60%.
Date: 2017-02
Authors:
Brotherhood, Luiz Mário
Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti
Santos, Cézar Augusto Ramos
On October 31st and November 1st, 2016, the Center for Regulation and Infrastructure from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV CERI) organized a two-day workshop discussion in collaboration with the World Bank and ABRACE. The event gathered regulators, government representatives, academics, operators, financial institutions and investors. The debate focused on the main challenges faced by the current restructuring process of the Brazilian gas industry. This document presents the main points discussed during the debates.
Date: 2017-01
Authors:
Vazquez, Miguel
Amorim, Lívia
Dutra, Joísa Campanher
The impact of government equity investment on internationalization: the case ...FGV Brazil
We examine the impact of government equity ownership on the degree of internationalization of emerging market firms. Our analysis of 173 Brazilian publicly traded firms from 2002 to 2011 shows that the higher the equity held by the state through the state investment bank and the pension funds of SOEs and privatized SOEs, the higher the firm’s degree of internationalization. Firms in which the government shared control with families, and with both families and foreigners, had a higher degree of internationalization. Our findings underline the importance of the institutional context in explaining the internationalization of Brazilian firms.
Date: 2016
Author:
Sheng, Hsia Hua
Techno-government networks: Actor-Network Theory in electronic government res...FGV Brazil
The Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is a theoretical approach for the study of controversies associated with scientific discoveries and technological innovations through the networks of actors involved in such actions. This approach has generated studies in Information Systems (IS) since 1990, however few studies have examined the use of this approach in the e-government area. Thus, this paper aims to broaden the theoretical approaches on e-government, by presenting ANT as a theoretical framework for e-government studies via published empirical work. For this reason, the historical background of ANT is described, duly listing its theoretical and methodological premises. In addition to this, one presented ANT-based e-government works, in order to illustrate how ANT can be applied in empirical studies in this knowledge area.
Date: 2016
Authors:
Fornazin, Marcelo
Joia, Luiz Antonio
Condemning corruption while condoning inefficiency: an experimental investiga...FGV Brazil
This article reports results from an economic experiment that investigates to what extent voters punish corruption and waste in elections. While both are responsible for a loss of welfare for voters, they are not necessarily perceived as equally immoral. The empirical literature in political agency has not yet dealt with these two dimensions that determine voters’ choices. Our results suggest that morality and norms are indeed crucial for a superior voting equilibrium in systems with heterogeneous politicians: while corruption is always punished, self-interest alone – in the absence of norms – leads to the acceptance and perpetuation of waste and social losses.
Date: 2016
Authors:
Arvate, Paulo Roberto
Souza, Sergio Mittlaender Leme de
Condemning corruption while condoning inefficiency: an experimental investiga...
June 2011 - Reinventing innovation
1. Economy, politics and policy issues • June 2011 • vol. 3 • nº 6
Publication of Getulio Vargas FoundationFGV
BRAZILIAN
ECONOMY
The
Politics
How much longer will
Rousseff’s honeymoon last?
Viewpoint
The credibility of the
primary surplus
SOLID WASTE POLICY
Riches from garbage
Interview
Mauro Kern, vice
president of Embraer
REINVENTING
INNOVATIONBrazil has all the tools to stimulate
innovation. What is needed now is to
articulate policies, reduce bureaucracy,
and speed up the process.
2. Economy, politics, and policy issues
A publication of the Brazilian Institute of
Economics. The views expressed in the articles
are those of the authors and do not necessarily
represent those of the IBRE. Reproduction of the
content is permitted with editors’ authorization.
Letters, manuscripts and subscriptions: Send to
thebrazilianeconomy.fgv@gmail.com.
Chief Editor
Vagner Laerte Ardeo
Managing Editor
Claudio Roberto Gomes Conceição
Senior Editor
Anne Grant
Assistant to the Editor
Pinheiro Ronci
Editors
Bertholdo de Castro
Solange Monteiro
Art Editors
Ana Elisa Galvão
Cintia de Sá
Sonia Goulart
Contributing Editors
Kalinka Iaquinto – Economy
Claudio Accioli – Economy
Solange Monteiro – Economy
João Augusto de Castro Neves – Politics and Foreign Policy
Thais Thimoteo – Economy
Contributing Writer
Salomão Quadros
The Getulio Vargas Foundation is a private, nonpartisan, nonpro-
fit institution established in 1944, and is devoted to research and
teachingofsocialsciencesaswellastoenvironmentalprotection
and sustainable development.
Executive Board
President: Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal
Vice-Presidents: Francisco Oswaldo Neves Dornelles, Marcos
Cintra Cavalcanti de Albuquerque, and Sergio Franklin
Quintella.
IBRE – Brazilian Institute of Economics
The institute was established in 1951 and works as the “Think
Tank” of the Getulio Vargas Foundation. It is responsible for
calculation of the most used price indices and business and
consumer surveys of the Brazilian economy.
Director: Luiz Guilherme Schymura de Oliveira
Vice-Director: Vagner Laerte Ardeo
APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Center for Economic Growth: Regis Bonelli, Samuel de Abreu
Pessoa, Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho
Center of Economy and Oil: Mauricio Pinheiro Canêdo
Center for International Economics: Lia Valls Pereira
Center of Agricultural Economics: Mauro Rezende Lopes,
Ignez Guatimosim Vidigal Lopes, Daniela de Paula Rocha
CONSULTING AND STATISTICS PRODUCTION
Superintendent of Prices: Vagner Laerte Ardeo (Superin-
tendent) and Salomão Lipcovitch Quadros da Silva (Deputy
Superintendent)
Superintendent of Economic Cycles: Vagner Laerte Ardeo
(Superintendent) and Aloisio Campelo Júnior (Deputy Supe-
rintendent)
Superintendent of Institutional Clients: Rodrigo Moura
(Superintendent) and Rebecca Wellington dos Santos Barros
(Deputy Superintendent)
Superintendent of Operations: Rodrigo Moura (Superinten-
dent) and Marcelo Guimarães Conte (Deputy Superintendent)
Superintendent of Economic Studies: Marcio Lago Couto
Address
Rua Barão de Itambi, 60 – 5º andar
Botafogo – CEP 22231-000
Rio de Janeiro – RJ – Brazil
Tel.: 55 (21) 3799-6799
Email: ibre@fgv.br
Web site: http://portalibre.fgv.br/
F O U N D A T I O N
3. 33IN THIS ISSUE
BRAZILIAN
ECONOMY
The
June 2011
26 13 31
news briefs
4 Concern about the Cabinet chief
shakeup … PSDB leaders can’t agree
… Presidents of Uruguay and Brazil
cheer on Mercosur and Unasur …
Coalition partners clash on forestry
code … Unemployment stays
steady, but consumer confidence
and industrial production fall … IMF
warns of overheating in the Brazilian
economy … Central Bank rates rise as
expected.
politics
8 How much longer will
Rousseff’s honeymoon last?
What looks like political inactivity
may be a careful political strategy,
Joao Augusto Neves says, but warns
that while the administration waits
for political capital to accumulate,
political capital is also being spent —
and the clock is ticking.
viewpoint
11 The credibility of the
primary surplus
The primary surplus sounds simple
enough: it is the balance of fiscal
revenues and expenditures minus
interest payments on public debt.
But some very doubtful changes in
how the primary surplus is calculated
are increasingly complicating
interpretation of how the primary
surplus affects the economy.
cover story
13 Reinventing innovation
Innovation drives competitiveness,
which in turn drives profits. But
innovation is not yet driving the
Brazilian economy, and although
a few companies have managed
to break through the barriers, the
government has made that very
difficult. Claudio Accioli and Solange
Monteiro explain what is holding
innovation back in Brazil, areas
where innovation can be particularly
promising and effective, and what
needs to be done to fully realize the
promise of innovation.
solid waste policy
20 Riches from garbage
The new National Solid Wastes
Program recognizes that, properly
handled, solid waste can be a
treasure trove of resources. Kalinka
Iaquinto and Thais Thimoteo explain
how the economy loses R$8 billion
annually by sending waste to
landfills and dump sites instead of
recycling, and what’s being done
to reduce recycling costs and
combine sustainability with income
generation.
interview
26 Embraer: Always thinking
ahead
Mauro Kern, executive vice president
of engineering and technology of
the Brazilian Aerospace Corporation
(Embraer), explains to Solange
Monteiro how advanced R&D is not
enough. Successful and profitable
innovation also demands being
constantly tuned in to emerging
market opportunities and being
willing to regularly rethink production
and marketing processes. Embraer’s
edge, Kern says, lies in using what it
learns to create smart solutions for
specific market segments.
monetary policy
31 Lower inflation, higher
interest rates
Salomão Quadros explains why it
would be prudent for the Central
Bank to keep interest rates high
for longer than it envisaged at the
beginning of the year.
4. 4
May-June 2011
BRAZIL NEWS BRIEFS
Cabinet chief Palocci resigns,
succeeded by Gleisi Hoffmann
The departure of Antonio Palocci in
the wake of allegations of financial
impropriety has prompted concerns
about Rousseff administration
policy prospects. Palocci was seen
as the strongest voice of economic
orthodoxy in Rousseff’s cabinet,
advocating tighter monetary and
fiscal policy to tame continuing
high inflation. Analysts see his
loss as making it more difficult
for Rousseff to get her economic
agenda (including pension reforms)
through a fractious legislature.
The president’s decision to appoint
Senator Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) as
Cabinet Chief surprised many. Some
representatives of coalition parties
complain that she has no political
experience, and the decision does
not end problems in articulating
government policy. PMDB, the main
party in the coalition, is pressing
the president for a greater voice in
government decisions. Allies from
other parties have advised Rousseff
to give Vice President Michel Temer
(PMDB) more say in government
decisions and appoint more PMDB
members to government posts.
(June 8)
FOREIGN POLICY
Internal dispute for PSDB leadership continues
The national convention of the main opposition party, PSDB (Brazilian Social
Democratic Party), failed to build a consensus on candidates for the 2014
presidential election. Former governor of São Paulo state José Serra and Senator
Aécio Neves both want in. The convention elected Congressman Sergio Guerra
as president until 2013. The Serra group managed to get Alberto Goldman the
party vice-presidency, and Senator Neves’s group got Congressman Rodrigo
Castro in as secretary general. Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso
continues as honorary PSDB president. (May 28)
Photo:MarcelloCasalJr./AgenciaBrasil.
President Dilma Rousseff (left) and Uruguyan President Jose Mujica.
Uruguay and Brazil offer support for Mercosur and Unasur
Uruguay and Brazil presidents pledged in Montevideo to tighten bilateral
relations and regional integration through Mercosur and Unasur. The two
countries signed 15 cooperation agreements. In a joint declaration the two
leaders ratified their “firm commitment to strengthen” Unasur and their “priority
commitment to the consolidation of Mercosur as an instrument for improving
living conditions for their peoples.” The presidents also agreed on the need
to reform the United Nations, particularly to make the Security Council “more
representative,legitimate,andefficient”andensurethatthecomingUNGeneral
Assembly will deliver concrete results. (May 30)
Photo:RobertoStuckertFilho/AgenciaBrasil.
Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (left), Senator Aécio Neves (center), and
former governor José Serra at the PSDB national convention.
ADMINISTRATION POLITICS
Former Cabinet Chief Antonio Palocci
Photo:VitorSoares/AgenciaBrasil
5. May-June 2011
5BRAZIL NEWS BRIEFS
ENVIRONMENT
PT and PMDB clash
on forestry code
A PMDB amendment to the forestry
code provides for amnesty for those
who had cut down native forest in
the Permanent Protection Areas
(PPAs) before 2008; it benefits
small farmers affected by harsh
environmental rules imposed in
1990. President Rousseff warned she
would veto the proposal if it passed
the Senate. It did, 273 to 182, mainly
because of support from its sponsor,
the PMDB. The rift in the governing
coalition may affect future votes
or result in more PMDB pressure
for government appointments.
(May 24)
INFRASTRUCTURE
Tender for airport announced
for December
A tender for upgrading airport
infrastructure and management at
Guarulhos, Campinas, and Brasília
is planned for December. Infraero
(Brazilian Company of Airport
Infrastructure), which manages
the main airports, will hold no
more than 49% in partnership with
a private company. The soccer
governing board, FIFA, has raised
concerns about the transportation
infrastructure of World Cup
host cities, especially airports.
(May 31)
ECONOMY
ECONOMIC POLICY
Consumer confidence falls again,
says FGV
BetweenAprilandMay,theconsumer
confidence index fell for the third
straight time — from 118.2 to
115.4 points, the lowest level since
January, according to the Getulio
Vargas Foundation (FGV). Consumer
assessments worsened for both the
current situation and the near-term
outlook. (May 25)
Unemployment holds at 6.4%
in April
Unemployment fell very slightly, to
6.4%, in the six main metropolitan
areas,interruptingthesteadyincrease
inunemploymentsincethebeginning
of the year. The results of the Brazilian
Institute of Geography and Statistics
(IBGE) survey nearly equal the 6.5%
recorded in March. (May 26)
April industrial production
fell 2.1%
The 2.1% decline in industrial
production was led by a 10% drop
in durable goods production — the
largest contraction since December
2008. The decline indicates that
monetary policy measures are
already cooling the economy,
although competition from imports
contributed to the fall. (May 31)
Retails sales declined by 0.2%
in April
Weak retail sales reinforced the
perception that domestic demand is
decelerating somewhat. (June 10)
Brazilian economy overheating,
IMF says
The Brazilian economy is close to
overheatingandtheauthoritiesshould
raiseinterestratesandconsolidatethe
budget, the International Monetary
Fund’s Olivier Blanchard told O Globo
newspaper, adding that Brazil needs
to be ready for negative shocks like a
drop in raw material prices. He also
suggested taking measures to limit
appreciationoftheBrazilian real,such
as reserve accumulation and capital
controls. (May 22)
Budget surplus equals 2.3%
of GDP
Brazil’s primary surplus (excluding
interest payments) was R$18.1 billion
inApril,accordingtoCentralBankdata
releasedinMay.The12-monthprimary
surplus reached $119.6 billion (3.14%
of GDP), but when doubtful revenues
from an operation to capitalize
Petrobras are excluded, the surplus
was R$87.7 billion (2.30% of GDP)
according to Fator Bank economist
José Francisco Gonçalves. (May 27)
Central Bank policy rate rises
to 12.25%, as expected
In announcing the 25 basis point
rise, the Monetary Policy Committee
said that continuing monetary
adjustment for a sufficiently long
period is the best strategy to bring
inflation back on target in 2012. In
May CPI inflation reached 6.55%
year-on-year, above the top of the
2.5–6.5% target range. Brazil’s high
interest rates and promising growth
prospects continue to draw capital,
makingitdifficultfortheCentral Bank
to control liquidity. In May net inflows
were US$5.3 billion, about double
those of May 2010. Since January,
foreign reserve accumulation has
totaled$47billion,abouttriplethatof
the same period in 2010, bringing the
total to US$335 billion. (June 6)
6. April 2011
In addition to producing and disseminating the main financial and economic
indicators of Brazil, IBRE (Brazilian Institute of Economics) of Getulio Vargas
Foundation provides access to its extensive databases through user licenses
and consulting services according to the needs of your business.
ONLINE DATABASES
CONSULTING SERVICES
FGVData – Follow the movement of prices covering all segments of the
market throughout your supply chain.
Research and Management of Reference Prices – Learn the average market
price of a product and better assess your costs.
Sector Analysis and Projections – Obtain detailed studies and future
scenarios for the main sectors of the economy.
FGV Confidence – Have access to key sector indicators of economic activity
in Brazil through monthly Surveys of Consumer and Industry.
Custom Price Indices – Have specific price indices for your business,
calculated in accordance with your cost structure.
Costs and Parametric Formulas – Find the most appropriate price index to
adjust your contracts.
Inflation Monitor – Anticipate short-term inflation changes.
Macroeconomic Forecasts and Analysis – Understand Brazil's macroeconomic
outlook and assess the effects on your company.
Domestic inflation – Follow the evolution of domestic costs of your company
and compare with market costs.
Retail Metrics – Learn how your customers react to price changes by studies
of the demand for your products.
For more information about our services please visit our
site (www.fgv.br / IBRE) or contact by phone
(55-21) 3799-6799
IBRE HAS ALL THE NUMBERS THAT YOU
NEED FOR YOUR BUSINESS TO THRIVE
7. 7
N
ew ideas open up new pathways to success
for most businesses. True, in some fields
like metallurgy companies can get along
comfortably doing the same old thing just a little bit
better every year, but is that success? Maybe now, but
success in 10 or 20 years?
A few Brazilian companies are not afraid to break
new ground, try new things, take on competitors
head-on. Natura and Embraer are two obvious
examples. But why are they so far
out in front of their peers?
For one thing, neither is
typical of Brazilian businesses.
Businesses in areas like mining
are less dependent on technology
or research, and most of Brazil’s
products, like oil and soybeans,
sell themselves because there’s so
much world demand. That’s one of
the reasons BNDES vice president
João Carlos Ferraz cites for Brazil
being so far behind in innovation.
Another is a risk-aversion that’s
a legacy of all those years of a
closed economy — but how long
should a business or a country be
controlled by the past? And how
long before businesses and their associations leave
behind protectionist ideas that proved to be less than
productive decades ago?
Another barrier to innovation is that today
companies spend so much time dealing with
currency fluctuations and bureaucratic red tape
that it takes a superhuman effort to escape long
enough to think well into the future. Companies
find it hard to help themselves when government,
though occasionally doing something helpful, keeps
erecting more barriers. Take FINEP (Funding for
Research and Projects). It was a sound initiative
that has been doing a fairly good job in supporting
technological innovation. In 2010 it invested R$4.2
billion in about 2,000 companies. But for 2011, in
an inflation containment move, the government has
slashed the budget for FINEP’s main source of funds,
the National Fund for Scientific and Technological
Development (FNDCT), by 22%. Such inconsistency
in government policy may well explain why Brazil
applies for fewer international patents than the other
BRICs, and why Brazilian incentives for innovation
amount to one-fourth of those in
the United States.
One major factor is that the
government’s left hand often does
not know what the right hand is
doing, stifling innovation. Brazil
needs an industrial policy that
coordinates all programs and
government agencies to promote
innovation. But each agency has its
own culture, so finding common
ground will not be easy.
Access to credit is another
innovation deterrent, especially
for smaller companies. It is charged
that academics who are out of
touch with markets have too much
influence on decisions about credit
lines. What can be done about that?
Celebrating one area that has great promise for
Brazilian business and economic growth, Natura’s
Marcelo Cardoso predicts that “Brazilian biodiversity
will become our Silicon Valley.” But that will not
happen automatically. “Today,” he says, “the law is
unclear, the rules for accessing these extraordinary
assets are confused, so we have trouble attracting
investors and researchers.” Ambiguous law and red
tape are not new complaints. Breaking these chains that
prevent innovation holds the promise of great riches.
But how much longer must Brazil bear sub-optimal
policies before the government pays attention?
Brazil needs an
industrial policy
that coordinates
all programs
and government
agencies
to promote
innovation.
Needed: New ideas
June 2011
FROM THE EDITORS
8. 88
June 2011
POLITICS
João Augusto de Castro Neves
T
he concept of the first 100 days is often
applied to a new administration as a
measure of its productivity and early
success. The concept does not work well for
the Dilma Rousseff administration — even if
we double the time span to almost a full six
months of political activity.
Looking at it in the most favorable light,
what many perceive as political inactivity
may in fact be the careful political strategy
of an administration in its early days. When a
handpicked technocratic president who lacks
political experience replaces a highly popular
and charismatic leader, a change of pace might
be expected in the political dynamics in Brasilia.
The transition from former President Lula’s
personal anointed candidate to leader in her
own right may take a while for Rousseff to carry
off. Caution may seem like the way to go.
But anyone who waits for political capital to
accumulate must realize that in the meantime
politicalcapitalisalsobeingspent.Theelements
In its first six months, the Rousseff administration was beleaguered by coalition parties’ friendly fire,
allegations of illicit conduct by its chief political coordinator and his resignation, and administrative
paralysis. The president is running out of time. Rousseff will have fewer political resources at her disposal
to hold her coalition together and govern as the likely slowdown of economic activity and looming
inflation take their toll on her popularity.
How much longer will
Rousseff’s honeymoon last?
President’s effort to contain the recent political crisis led to dismissal of the chief political coordinator of the
administration, Antonio Palocci …
Photo:FabioRodriguesPozzebom/AgenciaBrasil.
9. 99
June 2011
POLITICS
that will tip the balance, pro or con, are delicate.
Economic growth, low inflation, and public
opinion are obvious factors at play. But in
Brazil’s brand of “coalitional presidentialism,”
the relation between the executive branch and
Congress can say a lot about the nature of an
administration . . . and its prospects.
There are three related reasons that might
explain the congressional stalemate of the
past several months. The first is the intricacy of
the legislative agenda. For over a decade, for
example, common ground has been lacking in
congressional negotiations on tax reform and
political reform, and any major overhaul would
require a qualified majority to pass. But even on
issues that need less support to be approved,
such as inviting the private sector to take on
airport concessions, the government seems
unwilling or at best slow to push ahead.
Which brings us to a second reason for the
near-paralysis of legislative activity so far in the
Rousseff administration: a governing coalition
that ideologically is unusually heterogeneous.
On paper President Rousseff enjoys a larger
congressional majority than President Lula
ever did. But her own party, the left-of-center
Workers’ Party (PT), is only the second largest
party represented in the coalition, behind
the centrist PMDB. Add to the mix smaller
conservative forces, evangelical groups, more
traditional socialist parties, and swarms of
landowners, and the result is almost inevitably
discord. The recent vote on the new forestry
code was an obvious example of how the
political dynamics of Rousseff’s coalition can
work against her administration’s agenda.
ThethirdreasonforthestalemateisRousseff’s
slow and uncertain progress on executive
branch appointments. In a nutshell, a stable
coalitional presidentialism dictates that the
parties in the congressional coalition should
have corresponding shares in top and second-
tier executive positions. As coalition parties do
not have direct access to policymaking and the
public treasury, pork-barrel spending usually
becomesverydifficult.Thelikelyconsequences:
dissatisfaction, disloyalty, deadlock, and
eventually defection. What holds a broad and
diverse coalition together is not ideology but
power and money.
President Rousseff seems
to have a more serious
underlying political
vulnerability: she is
noticeably unwilling to
do politics.
… but her appointee as Cabinet Chief, Senator Gleisi Hoffmann,
was criticized by allied parties as not having enough political
experience.
Photo:FabioRodriguesPozzebom/AgenciaBrasil.
10. 1010
June 2011
POLITICS
These reasons alone demonstrate the
challenges any Brazilian president can usually
expect in dealing with Congress. But President
Rousseffseemstohaveamoreseriousunderlying
politicalvulnerability:sheisnoticeablyunwilling
to do politics. So far she has preferred to govern
mostly by decree, and unlike her predecessor
sheshiesawayfrompublicexposure.Compared
to Lula’s style, so far Rousseff’s silence has
been interpreted as a sign of a more hands-on
approach to governing. But that is likely to
change with time. As the president’s popularity
fades and the difficulties persist, her silence will
beincreasinglyconsideredasignoffrailpolitical
leadership.
Congressional stalemate aside, so far the
Rousseffadministrationhasbeenabletomuster
the support it needs for its most immediate
goals. As a matter of fact, the strategy for
containing the recent political crisis that led to
dismissal of the chief political coordinator of
the administration, Antonio Palocci, suggests a
savvy political instinct for survival. But survival
is not the same as strength. Unless she has the
political will to bind together the governing
coalition, Rousseff’s support base will become
themainsourceofrisktoheradministration.Ina
sense,thePalocciaffairisanexampleofdamage
caused by friendly fire.
At this juncture, time is still a reasonable
coverforPresidentRousseff’sshortcomings—a
prudent start, testing the waters of governing,
assessing loyalties, and actually deciding on the
specifics of major policies. But the president is
running out of time. As the likely slowdown
of economic activity and looming inflationary
pressures take their toll on her popularity,
Rousseff will have fewer political resources at
her disposal to hold her coalition together and
govern. The clock is ticking.
Unless the president has
the political will to bind
together the governing
coalition, Rousseff’s
support base will become
the main source of risk to
her administration.
The
BRAZILIAN
ECONOMY
Subscriptions
thebrazilianeconomy.fgv@gmail.com
11. 1111
June 2011
VIEWPOINT
The credibility of the primary surplus
I
n recent years the government has promoted
many creative changes to the most important
element of fiscal consolidation, in place since
Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s second term:
the primary surplus, which is the balance of
fiscal revenues and expenditures minus interest
payments on public debt.
Some very doubtful operations have been
used to change how the primary surplus is
calculated, such as doubtful revenues arising
from an operation to capitalize the Petrobras
state oil company. The changes have increasingly
complicated interpretation of how the primary
surplus affects the economy.
The fact that the government itself has
contributedtodiscreditingtheprimarysurplushas
createdaprecedentthatencouragesirresponsible
Congressional fiscal behavior and clouds budget
negotiationsbetweengovernmentandlegislature.
The government should recognize that there is in
Congress a tendency to overestimate budget
revenue to make room for raising expenditures.
The loss of respect for the primary surplus
may encourage legislators to rely on creative
accounting when they vote on the budget.
Which calculation?
The practical result of the government’s neglect
of the primary surplus as fiscal indicator is that
today the surplus coexists with a variety of official
estimatesof“effective”fiscaloutcomes,calculated
by a number of private institutions. A first step
to recovering and improving primary surplus
accounting would be to restore its credibility,
clearing it of creative accounting gimmicks.
But it is also time to analyze in depth the
characteristics of the primary surplus and the
reasonsitissensibletomakeitasusefulaspossible
for policy making.
There are two distinct ways to calculate the
primary surplus. From “above the line” it is
calculated as the difference between revenues
and expenditures, excluding interest payments.
From“belowtheline”itiscalculatedasthechange
in net debt, excluding interest payments.
Note that if all the resources that go into the
Treasuryareconsideredpublicrevenues,including
changesinequity(capitalgains)ofpublicdebt,the
below-andabove-the-linecalculationsofprimary
Some very doubtful
operations have been used
to change how the primary
surplus is calculated.
12. 1212
June 2011
VIEWPOINT
surplus will be equal. This is purely accounting.
With regard to economic policy, however,
depending on the state of the economy the two
ways of calculating the primary surplus may have
different results.
When the public sector has serious solvency
problems and is selling public assets (privatizing),
the below-the-line primary surplus will be the
higher of the two unless proceeds from the
sale of state-owned companies are considered
budgetrevenue.Whenthepolicyissueisthelong-
term solvency of public finances, revenue from
privatization is useful and legitimate. If therefore
the major challenge of economic policy is to
reduce public debt, the below-the-line surplus is
a good indicator. An alternative if the question is
public sector solvency would be to use the above-
the-lineprimarysurplusbutincluderevenuesfrom
privatization. This is not wrong; nor should it be
considered unorthodox.
However, when the policy issue is how the
public budget supports central bank efforts to
curb inflation, the priority becomes what the
public sector contributes to reducing domestic
demand. In other words, what matters is whether
the government is helping to increase domestic
demand and to what extent. In this situation, the
primarysurplusisusefulasanindicatorofthepublic
contributiontodomesticdemand,soitshouldnot
include revenues from selling public assets, which
does not reduce private income the way taxes do.
In this case the above-the-line primary surplus,
including only tax revenue, would be the more
relevant fiscal indicator for policy making.
Sovereign funds and dividends
Agovernmentcontributiontoasovereignfund,as
in2008,shouldnotbeconsideredanexpense.The
contribution had actually been saved beforehand
and was transferred to an investment fund whose
sole shareholder is the government. Though this
operation was considered a public expenditure, it
did not increase domestic demand in any way.
Similarly, dividends from state-owned
companies may be recorded as revenue because
they subtract from income generated in the
economy. The anticipation of dividends, however,
cannot be treated as income when nothing has
as yet been produced. Thus, the anticipation of
dividends is equivalent to government debt. This
practice was common in the public sector before
the Cardoso administration curbed it.
In Brazil today the major concern of economic
policyisnotpublicsolvencybutcontrolofdemand
to curb inflation. In this case a primary surplus
above the line with traditional rules is probably
the most relevant fiscal indicator.
Besides restoring the credibility of the primary
surplus, the government should take this
opportunity to reformulate its main barometer
of public demand, especially since the timing is
favorable. The latest Treasury data suggest that
the primary surplus target of 2.9% of GDP will be
met without creative accounting. In other words,
we are at one of those rare and happy moments
when the messenger brings good news, and the
barometer is showing what any government
would like to see.
In Brazil today the major
concern of economic policy
is not public solvency but
control of demand to curb
inflation.
13. June 2011
REINVENTING
INNOVATION
Brazil has all the tools to
stimulate innovation. What is
needed now is to articulate
policies, reduce bureaucracy,
and speed up the process.
A
fter more than 20 years of free trade,
Brazilian industry has realized it needs to
compete to win lasting market share. The
fact that innovation drives competitiveness is now
generally recognized by both policymakers and
businesspeople. But despite widespread consensus
about its benefits and as the government prepares
to release a new industrial policy, innovation is
still far from driving the national economy.
Paulo Mol, executive manager for industrial
policy and research and innovation, National
Confederation of Industries (CNI), gives one
explanation for this. “In our surveys, innovation
always appeared as one of the three strategic
themes for productivity growth — but no one
sought to organize themselves to encourage
it.” However, in 2008, 40 major companies,
among them Braskem, Ford, Gerdau, and
Vale, created Entrepreneurial Mobilization for
Claudio Accioli and Solange Monteiro, Rio de Janeiro
of innovation and strategy for
medium and large companies in
Brazil. Of these, 78% said they
plan to invest more in innovation.
Yet 40% of the sample said their
companies currently invest less
than 1% of sales in innovation,
and 9% have not begun to invest.
“A business that innovates opens
markets and expands, grows
ahead of competition, and is more
profitable, which creates dynamism
in production,” comments João
Carlos Ferraz, vice president and
director of planning, the National
Bank for Economic and Social
Development (BNDES).
Brazilian competitiveness may be
at risk. For example, Brazil applies for
fewer international patents than the
other BRICs, and about two-thirds
of total research and development
(RD) comes from Informatics Law
tax exemptions. If these are excluded,
Brazilian incentives amount to one-
fourth of the United States, and one-
third of Japan.
Innovation (MEI);
its goal was to
double the number
o f i n n o v a t i v e
companies in Brazil
in four years. The
initiative is bearing
fruit: the American
Chamber of Commerce
and the Dom Cabral Foundation
recently surveyed 300 managers
June 2011
13COVER STORY
14. June 2011
14 COVER STORY
Incentives
Competitiveness requires
a constant search for new
products and productivity
gains. The Natura company
operates in the third largest
health and beauty market
in the world (Brazil is
behind only the United
States and Japan); every
year, it launches about 200
new items, discontinuing
a similar number to keep
its offerings balanced here
and in the five other Latin
American countries where
it operates. “About 60%
of our revenue comes from
products launched in the
past two years; the main
source of company growth
is the ability to innovate,”
says Marcelo Cardoso,
vice president. In 2010
Natura invested 3% of its
net sales (US$5.1 billion)
in RD, 21% more than
in 2009 and well above
the national average.
“And that doesn’t count
investment in management
and innovation in sales,”
Cardoso adds.
Why is Natura not the
rule in Brazilian industry?
Ferraz cites three reasons.
The first is structural: the
country’s productive sectors
require little technology,
research, and sales effort.
The second is that Brazilian
businesspeople are highly
risk-averse, having had
to deal with considerable
economic uncertainty in
the not too distant past. The
third relates to industrial
policies: “Both during the
era of import substitution
and more recently during
the opening up of the
economy, innovation was
relatively unimportant,”
Ferraz says. “In the former
period, it was thought
that industrialization
alone would stimulate
innovation; in the latter, it
was believed that markets
alone would do it.”
The CNI’s Mol points out
that systemic factors and
unresolved macroeconomic
issues impede innovation,
explaining that companies
spend so much time dealing
with currency fluctuations
and bureaucracy that
they have little time and
energy to plan for the long
term. Glauco Arbix, the
new president of Funding
for Studies and Projects
(FINEP) of the Ministry
of Science and Technology,
reinforces this point: “Brazil
does not pay for innovation
the way it should. It’s more
expensive, slower, and
riskier — so why change?”
He adds the private sector
has had difficulty putting
past industrial policies
behind it: “Associations and
business representatives,
even as they move toward
innovation, ... slip into
protectionist ideas, dating
back to the 40 years we
had of a closed economy.
That will take a long time
to overcome.”
Credit and research
Ferraz of BNDES notes
that since 2001 there
has been more effort to
promote innovation, using
proceeds from Cardoso’s
privatization of state-
owned companies and
facilitated by funds from
the Lula administration’s
Law of Innovation and
Productive Development
Policies and S cience,
TechnologyandInnovation:
“The funds represented a
radical change in the way
of giving incentives ....
Lula’s policies give a sense
of order and continuity to
the [innovation] process.”
FINEP is responsible for
supporting technological
Innovation is
still far from
being the driver
of the national
economy.
15. June 2011
15COVER STORY
innovation and adminis-
ters sector funds. Early in
his administration, Aloisio
Mercadante, Minister of
Science and Technolo-
gy, even proposed trans-
forming the agency into
a bank; in 2010, FINEP
investments totaled R$4.2
billion, benefiting about
2,000 companies. Yet the
government has cut the
agency’s budget for 2011
to maintain a budget sur-
plus as a way to contain
inflation, slicing 22% from
the National Fund for Sci-
entific and Technological
Development (FNDCT),
the main source of FINEP
funds.
W hen f i n a nc i ng i s
restricted, small businesses,
the weakest link in the
innovation supply chain,
suffer most. Evandro
C u n h a , c o m m e r c i a l
manager of Jevin, which
provides communication
services for oil and gas
companies, says, “We have
identified many businesses
with the ability to solve
problems and meet specific
industry demands, but
it is difficult to secure
t he needed f i na ncia l
resources.” CNI’s Mol
adds that “Channels are
necessary, like the BNDES
Card, that are dedicated to
small businesses.”
C e s a r R o g e r i o d e
Souza, chief economist,
Institute for Industrial
Development Studies (Iedi),
thinks that one problem is
the heavy influence of the
academy in the design of
tools to support business
innovation; he thinks
academicians should focus
on knowledge that creates
value for the market.
Hilton Marinho, director
of TS Soluções, a small
industrial automation
company, agrees: “When
we seek funding, what
seems to matter is not
reality, but the academic
knowledge you bring to
your business, because
projects are evaluated from
that point of view, not the
market.”
About five years ago,
for example, Marinho
decided to take advantage
of certain similarities
between sanitation and oil
production and offer its
products to the oil sector.
In 2008, he presented a
computer program of oil
and gas flow, which was
certified in 2009. But TS
Soluções was not able to
sell its product because
the regulations changed.
The National Petroleum
Agency (ANP) set new
requirements for certifying
the project that cost more
in both money and time.
“We do research without
a formal RD department,
but that does not satisfy
those who make decisions
about credit lines, because
the evaluation is done
by academics, not [those
within] the industry,”
Marinho says.
Lack of clarity
Mauricio Canêdo Pinhei
ro, a researcher at the
Brazilian Institute of
Economics, Getulio Vargas
Foundation (IBRE / FGV),
points out that financing
for innovation projects has
improved with flexible use
of sector funds, the setting
aside of a percentage of
FNDCT funds for activities
not connected to the
universities, pursuant to
the Law of Innovation, and
the availability of venture
capital. But, he says, “The
problem is to articulate
a p r o g r a m b r i n g i n g
together different levels
When financing is
restricted, small
businesses, the
weakest link in the
innovation supply
chain, suffer most.
16. June 2011
16 COVER STORY
of government to make
this system of innovation
work and make it a focus
of industrial policy, since
it is competitive pressure
o n c o m p a n i e s t h a t
encourages the search for
innovation.”
Economist David Kup-
fer, coordinator of the
Industry and Competi-
tiveness Group, Institute
of Economics, Federal
University of Rio de Ja-
neiro (UFRJ), also believes
initiatives in the field of
innovation are not clearly
articulated. “Supposedly,
there is a National Innova-
tion System that involves
more than merely physi-
cal assets or the proper
infrastructure for science
and technology. It is a set
of behaviors, rules, incen-
tives and institutions that
foster innovation ... . We
are behind in terms of
what happens in the United
States and some European
and Asian countries.”
Trailbreakers
Kupfer identifies in Brazil
some business segments
and supply chains that,
one way or another and
regardless of incentive poli-
cies, have managed to forge
an efficient innovation
system, forming a critical
mass. These are areas of
excellence that are com-
parable to some elsewhere
in the world, among them
exploration and produc-
tion of oil deep in the sea,
aviation, pharmaceutical
biotechnology, and ag-
ricultural research. Led
by the state oil company,
Petrobras, he says, oil ex-
ploration and production
in deep waters is a niche
where Brazil had to invest
in training and the proj-
ects matured in a positive
way, with an expanding
research program. Kup-
fer points out that “The
company has advanced to
become a world leader in
this technology.”
The same is true on
a smaller scale of the
aircraft industry. With
Embraer (the Brazilian
Aerospace Company),
Brazil has managed to
leverage the capacit y
of air force science and
technology — the Institute
of Aeronautical Technology
(ITA) and the Technical
Center for Aeronautics
(CTA). Its innovations
spill over into the fields of
motors, communication
tech nolog y, a nd new
materials, among others.
Late in 2010, Embraer
split up its defense division,
bought a stake in smaller
companies, and now seeks
to expand beyond aircraft
i nto com mu n ic at ion ,
computing, command and
control, and intelligence.
But aeronautics know-
how is not the only factor
that has made Embraer one
of the most competitive
companies in the world
market. “Embraer is often
cited as a successful case
of industrial policy, but it
only became competitive
when it s or ient at ion
changed and it began to
enter into partnerships
and buy supplies more
efficiently,” says FGV’s
Canêdo Pinheiro. “An
industrial policy that
focuses on innovation and
“The company,
whether private
or public, is the
legitimate protagonist
of innovation, being
the most interested
in the commercial
application of a
solution or a new
beginning.”
david kupfer
17. June 2011
17COVER STORY
local content only makes
sense if companies are
competitive. In Korea,
for example, protection
[of local industry] was a
counterpoint to meeting
c o mp e t it ive n e s s a n d
penetration goals in the
international market.”
Petras Amaral Santos,
coordinator, Marcopolo
D e s ig n D e velopm e nt
Center, fully agrees: “The
possibilities for innovation
by large companies rely
heavily on the innovation
capacity of their supply
chains. It does not help
forward-thinking research
and development if the
production network is not
ready to meet technological
challenges in a competitive
way.”
I n p h a r m a c e u t i c a l
biotechnology, UFRJ’s
Kupfer s t re s s e s t h at
innovation is restricted
to one noncommercial
area, genetic research and
production of vaccines
and serums. “Fiocruz [the
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation]
has a strong element
of innovation, but that
does not extend to other
segments of the industry,
such as medicines, where
Brazil is still heavily
dependent,” he says. But
he notes that Embrapa
(Brazilian Agricultural
“Brazilian biodiversity
will become our
Silicon Valley. But
the law is unclear,
rules for accessing
these extraordinary
biological assets are
confused, so we have
trouble attracting
investors and
researchers.”
marcelo cardoso
Research Corporation)
a n d o t h e r r e s e a r c h
institutions have made
major contributions to the
agricultural sector, citing
adaptation of soybeans to
the Brazilian savannah,
innovations in farming
techniques, and basing
a cellulose and paper
industry on eucalyptus.
Kupfer b el ieves “t he
great secret of Brazilian
competitiveness is the
agricultural sector.”
Threats to comfort
A lthough the success
stories are different,
they have one element
in common: companies
and institutions that can
anchor innovation systems
in their market segments.
“The company, whether
private or public, is the
legitimate protagonist of
innovation, being the most
interested in commercial
applications,” Kupfer says.
“Without this interest,
a sector will have little
capacity to innovate.”
U n f o r t u n a t e l y, h e
s ay s , t he pat ter n of
specialization in more
mature sectors shows that
innovation is not central
to competitive capacity.
Thus, companies that could
catalyze innovation operate
in environments where
technological opportunity
is limited, and they feel no
need to adopt innovative
behavior. For example,
production is efficient and
competitive in metallurgy
and chemistry but there
is no innovation system
around them. “Metals
produc t ion genera l ly
requires modern processes,
which may be acquired or
absorbed. [And] it needs
large-scale production,
which means capacity to
invest in large plants, to
press suppliers, and to
penetrate markets. In other
words, it has to dominate
produc tion processes
18. June 2011
18 COVER STORY
— but not necessarily
the technique to design
them.” This, Kupfer says,
is a structural dimension
explaining the low capacity
for innovation in Brazilian
industry.
When change does not
come, Kupfer notes, the
comfort zone in which a
large part of the Brazilian
industry operates can
be threatened. “We are
losing ground in cost-
based competition,” he
says, “mainly due to the
advancement of production
systems in Asia, a champion
of low cost.”
Competitiveness
To make innovation a
source of competitiveness,
Kupfer advocates replacing
the traditional concept of
sector — assets derived
from similar production
techniques — with market
segments and product
fa m ilies. “Cu rrently,
productive activity is
organized in a fluid and
complex way, very different
f rom what happ ened
decades ago. Gone is the
rigid concept of industry
fixed to territory or a linear
production chain from raw
material to final product.
This makes it more difficult
to identify which field is
experiencing competition,
who are the competitors,
and what should be the
objects of our attention.”
Kupfer is also concerned
about sustainability. For
instance, he says, “Brazil
to d ay h a s a n at u ra l
competitive advantage,
the availability of water,
which is becoming scarce
a n d t h e r e f o r e m o r e
e x p e n s ive . T h i n k i n g
about ou r adva nt age
from the standpoint of
su st a i n abi l it y me a n s
investing immediately
in processes that reduce
use of this resource for
production.”
Another sustainable
a d v a n t a g e c o u l d b e
the biodiversity of the
Amazon region. “Brazilian
biodiversity will become
ou r S i l i c on Va l le y,”
Natura’s Marcelo Cardoso
predicts, but he warns,
“Today the law is unclear,
the rules for accessing these
extraordinary biological
a s s e t s a re con f u s ed ,
s o w e h av e t r o u b l e
attracting investors and
researchers.”
Steps forward
No public initiative to
stimulate innovation will
be successful, however,
without a convergence
of the interests of all the
government agencies whose
activities are relevant.
“The great challenge facing
the government in this
new version of industrial
policy,” according to
Dyogo Oliveira, deputy
executive secretary of the
Ministry of Finance, “is
to improve coordination
of programs among the
various ministries, with
all that implies in terms
of reconciliation and
management of cultures,
and different habits and
rituals.”
Business expectations
are focused on what will
arise from the expected
new government policy.
A CNI document relates
f i s c a l i n c e n t i v e s t o
innovation proposals.
Another measure, widely
supported, is coordination
of policies for innovation
and exports. Iedi’s de Souza
thinks that “In so doing,
“Few areas provide
as generous a space
for the convergence
of public, private, and
social interests as
innovation does.”
joão carlos ferraz
19. June 2011
19COVER STORY
we can boost trade in high
technology.... In many
countries, export policies
become a stronghold for
innovative companies.”
The new measures are
expected to allow for
exploitation of market
opportunities as they
p r e s e n t t h e m s e l v e s .
Natura’s Cardoso points
out that with Brazil’s
emerging middle class and
a demographic dividend
that means that in 30 or
40 years the economically
active population will
still outnumber those
not working, there is
an additional impetus
for growth and social
inclusion. He adds that
“we have an advantage
over many countries, with
a clean energy matrix and
well-preserved biodiversity.
These factors are bigger
than our limitations.”
João Carlos Ferraz of
BNDES notes that few
areas provide as generous
a space for the convergence
of government, private,
a n d s o c i a l i nt e r e s t s
a s i n n ovat i o n d o e s :
“Companies can compete
and grow, and there are
positive externalities,
such as more qualified
suppliers and customers.
Employees have access
to more and better jobs.
And the government gets
more tax revenues from the
increase in wealth.”
Kupfer of UFRJ believes
all that is lacking now is
political action to define
which areas will receive
moreresources:“Innovation
requires choice, but it has
to be judicious and socially
perceived as legitimate. If
I have a passive economy
that simply floats like a
leaf on the ocean of global
changes ... without a vision
of the production system
I want for the next 15 or
20 years, I cannot make
technology policy.”
INDUSTRY’s PROPOSALS
FOR INNOVATION
• Improve the legal framework to support innovation.
• Eliminate sources of legal uncertainty.
• Integrate more fully with the international trade
agenda.
• Support internationalization of Brazilian companies.
• Attract RD centers of multinational companies.
• Set an agenda for discussion of
- Intellectual property
- Human resources training
- RD funding
- Innovation for small enterprises
- Sectoral innovation programs
Source:CNI
20. Anúncio
W
e have to change the way we
think of solid waste. In 2010
Brazil’s population increased
by 1% over 2009 and produced 61 million
tons of municipal solid waste — 7% more
than in 2009. Usually the waste ends up in
dump sites and landfills, a solution that has
heavy environmental, social, and economic
costs. But Sabetai Calderoni, president
of the Brazilian Institute for Sustainable
Development, says, “What we mistakenly
call garbage is actually precious raw
materials, which can bring social, economic
and environmental benefits. … It makes no
sense to bury or burn money: For industry,
scrap can generate wealth. And reuse of
Riches from garbage
Kalinka Iaquinto, Rio de Janeiro
waste can be a source of jobs and income
for those working in various stages of the
recycling process.”
The new recycling markets will boom for
two reasons: better logistics for collecting
and recovering solid waste for reuse, and
shared responsibility, with the public
and private sectors and consumers all
participating. Both are incorporated into
the National Solid Wastes Program (PNRS)
enacted in 2010.
Logistics
A survey by the Institute of Applied
Economic Research found that Brazil loses
R$8 billion annually by sending waste to
landfills and dump sites instead of recycling
it. New logistics methods, to be in place in
the second half of 2012, should change the
situation. “We believe better logistics will
enhance recycling in Brazil and offer such
advantages as environmental preservation,
energy saving, and less use of natural
resources for new products and jobs,” says
Nabil Bonduki, Ministry of Environment
Secretary for Water Resources and Urban
Environment.
The new logistics will deal with both
materials that were never consumed, such
as cancelled orders and surplus goods, and
Photo: Banco de imagens Inpev
June 2011
20 SOLIDWASTE
21. June 2011
21COVER STORY
products that have exhausted their
useful lives. Prof. Paulo Roberto
Leite, chairman of the Brazil’s
Reverse Logistics Council (CLRB),
says an estimated 5% to 6% of used
productsarecurrentlyrecycledinto
goods worth R$15 billion, adding
“With the introduction of the new
law, the used goods market may
increase dramatically.” The market
for used goods is just opening. Right now, Leite
says, “Returned used products generally contain
raw material of special economic interest, such
as iron and aluminum. The aggregate value
allows companies to buy junk to reuse the raw
material.”
Process
Pesticide containers are a successful case in
point. Since 2002, the National Institute for
Processing Empty Containers (Inpev) has
coordinated recycling logistics. João Cesar
Rando, Inpev president, explains the process:
The invoice shows where packaging should be
returned. The farmer washes containers three
times and returns them to brokers (retailers and
cooperatives) and ultimately to manufacturers.
Trucks that deliver filled containers collect
empty ones. With 421 collecting units across the
country, in 2010 Inpev returned 31,266 tons of
packaging; 92.5% was recycled, 9% more than
in 2009. In the first quarter of 2011, 8,092 tons
were processed, 17% more than in the same
period a year earlier.
Growth
The electronics industry is halfway to meeting
the new mandates. Some companies have
embraced sustainability to meet market demand
and comply with state and local laws. Itautec,
which sells computers and related equipment,
began recycling electronics in 2003. Volume
surged from 527 tons in 2009 to 3,842 tons last
year. Of all the waste the company produces
(5,100 tons, including organic waste), 92% is
recycled.
But, says João Carlos Redondo, Itautec
sustainability manager, there is no correlation
between what Itautec produces and what it gets
“What we mistakenly
called garbage is
actually precious raw
materials, which can bring
social, economic, and
environmental benefits for
the country.”
sabetai calderoni
June 2011
21SOLIDWASTE
22. June 2011
22 COVER STORY
back. This is an important point. Although the
PNRS has set recycling targets, the manufacturer
is not able to collect obsolete products from
homes and businesses. Redondo explains that
“Consumers decide to purchase and dispose of
products. In Brazil, computers have more than
10 years of use, and there is a social network
in which one person hands the product off to
another.” He believes that to improve recycling,
Brazil needs a public education program so
that consumers understand how to use and
dispose of products, and state recycling policies
must be aligned with national policy because
manufacturers cannot afford different recycling
systems for each state.
The government committee for monitoring
the PNRS has discussed both alignment of
recycling policies and tax differences. Bonduki
says, for instance, that the National Solid Waste
Policy establishes that companies will be
entitled to a federal value-added tax credit on
solid waste bought for use in manufacturing.
Exemption
To prevent taxation of recycled goods as raw
materials, for instance, Itautec takes two steps.
First, customers state that they delivered the
product voluntarily and not in return for new
products, and the company sends the product to
an appropriate destination for either recycling
or reuse. Second, individuals sign a disclaimer of
exemption receipt. Redondo says that because
the volume is small, the company generates
destination certificates honoring the client’s
wishes and makes a photographic record as
donated equipment is dismantled
TGestiona has recovered modems, cell
phones and other electronic equipment since
2006. Then it collected 7,000 items a month,
today it collects 70, 000. The com-
pany schedules collection, screens
the materials, cleans and reuses
parts deemed usable, and sends
the rest to a repair shop or to be
destroyed.
Is recycling worthwhile? Clóvis
Travassos, TGestiona director gen-
eral, says yes. But success depends
on recognizing that recycling
generates costs to users and busi-
Brazil needs a public
education program so that
consumers understand
how to use and dispose of
products.
joão carlos redondo
June 2011
22 SOLIDWASTE
23. June 2011
23COVER STORY
nesses. Redondo says the invest-
ment in recycling pays off for Itautec
because besides being more environ-
mentally sustainable it costs the com-
pany less than what it would cost to
dispose of the materials in landfills.
The ideal, says Tgestiona’s Travassos,
would be to combine sustainability
with income generation, but that will
require profound changes. “There
are companies that only care about
recycling because of the legislation.
We have to change this culture,” he
says. Bonduki thinks that will come:
“We hope that the guidelines of the
National Solid Waste Policy will bring
about a shift in how we conceive of the
product right up to environmentally
sound disposal.”
National Solid Waste
Policy (PNRS)
Waste Groups
At first, the law states, recycling systems
should comprise actions and procedures
for collecting, recycling, reusing, and dis-
posing of waste from five groups: elec-
tronics, packaging in general, medicines,
fluorescent lamps, and packaging for lubri-
cating oils.
Innovation
The PNRS brings together modern concepts
of solid waste management: shared respon-
sibility, integrated management, inventory,
sectoral agreements, product life cycle,
reduction, reuse, recycling and waste treat-
ment, and environmentally sound waste
disposal, It also calls for national, state, and
municipal waste management plans. It pro-
vides for social inclusion by strengthening
cooperatives and associations of collectors
of recyclable materials.
Penalties
Consumers who break the law with respect
to recycling materials and selective collec-
tion will first be warned. For later incidents,
they may be fined R$50 to R$500.
Imports
The law sets fines from R$500 to R$10 mil-
lion for importing hazardous solid waste
that may damage the environment and
public health.
“We hope that the
guidelines of the National
Solid Waste Policy will
bring about a shift in how
we conceive the product
right up to environmentally
sound disposal.”
nabil bonduki
June 2011
23SOLIDWASTE
24. O
ne moment a soda can is thrown
away; 30 days later it is back on
supermarket shelves in a new
form. From the time it is gathered by a
collector who sells to recycling depots for
reprocessing, the cycle is fast, and not by
accident: aluminum earns the highest price
per ton of all materials currently recycled
on a large scale in Brazil. The average
value pressed and clean is R$2,800 per
ton, according to Business Commitment to
Recycling (Cempre). This is 143% higher than
for PET (polyethylene terephthalate) bottles,
the second most highly rated at R$1,150
per ton. “Aluminum is one of the few solid
wastes that easily pays for its whole chain,”
says Ênio de Nicola, recycling coordinator,
Brazilian Aluminum Association.
To stimulate collection and alternatives
for reusing less profitable wastes, such as
plastic, glass, paper, tires, and electronics,
experts say that Brazil needs a good policy
for selective collection and incentives
to find sustainable economic patterns
for each material. “Where the value of
salvaged material does not cover the costs
of recycling, the government must release
funds to support the recycling chain,” de
Nicola argues.
The new from the old
Thais Thimoteo, Rio de Janeiro
Innovation and tax issues are also
barriers to recycling in Brazil. “Depending
on the material, raw material can cost less
than scrapped,” says Victor Bicca Neto,
Cempre president. He ascribes the problem
to high taxes on recycling companies and
technological bottlenecks to recycling
certain materials due to lack of equipment
and knowledge.
The sustainability challenge
For some companies environmental
sustainability problems have made it
necessary to find new ways to manage
waste. One example is multinational food
processing and packaging giant Tetra Pak.
Fernando Von Zuben, its executive director
of environment, reports that “With the 2009
crisis, we were not able to achieve our goal
of recycling 40% of packaging consumed
by the end of 2011. But we managed to
recycle 25% in 2010 and we expect to
recycle 40% by 2014.” How did they do it?
Tetra Pak’s Route Recycle site, launched in
2008, encourages selective collection and
recycling by helping people find collection
sites for long-life packaging close to their
homes, using a proprietary search tool
that uses the Google Maps platform. Von
June 2011
24 SOLIDWASTE
25. June 2011
25
Not all garbage is equal. Yet not all cities advise
their residents to separate different types of
waste, and many municipalities do not yet
have selective collection systems. The “Over-
view of Solid Waste in Brazil in 2010” published
by the Brazilian Association of Public Hygiene
and Special Waste (ABRELPE) shows that only
58% of the 5,565 Brazilian municipalities have
such initiatives. “Of that percentage, many do
not serve the entire population. Some are part-
nerships with recyclers, nothing more,” says
Carlos Silva Filho, ABRELPE executive director.
That may change soon. The National Policy
on Solid Waste (PNRS) requires presentation
in two years of plans for state solid waste and
municipal integrated solid waste management
that promote selective collection. The purpose
Zuben explains that “The initiative, which
also helps collector cooperatives and
companies that buy recyclable materials to
locate each other, helps identify demand,
showing cities and regions that lack such
initiatives.”
With global guidelines for waste
disposal (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle), the
transformation of used material into new
should involve more and more materials
beyondcurrentleadersaluminum,PET,and
paper. “For recycling to be economically
viable for businesses, they need to think in
the medium term.... Without investment
there is no way to make profits, whether
through energy savings in production or
added value,” Bicca Neto says.
Electronic materials, such as computer,
phone, and appliance cases and used
batteries, are, Bicca Neto says, one of
the most serious solid waste disposal
problems on the global environment
agenda. “The few initiatives for recycling
electronic devices junk are abroad for lack
of a recycling industry here,” he says.
High taxes on recycling
companies and technological
bottlenecks to recycling
certain materials are barriers to
recycling progress.
Selective collection
Kalinka Iaquinta, Rio de Janeiro
is to recover contaminated areas so that by
2014 there are no more dump sites.
But enforcing the law and achieving the
goals require systematic change. “Cities need
a municipal plan and creation of charges for
services. Only a few municipalities do this and
resources are scarce for sensitizing people and
getting them to accept these policies,” Silva
Filho says.
The solution the PNRS suggests, says Nabil
Bonduki, Ministry of Environment Secretary of
Water Resources and Urban Environment, is to
“form public municipal consortia to provide for
sustainability of services and sharing of costs;
help generate employment and income by
including collectors of recyclable materials; and
deactivate landfills that pollute soil and water.”
June 2011
25SOLIDWASTE
26. 2626
Foto: crédito das fotos
June 2011
INTERVIEW
The Brazilian Economy — Embraer is
often cited as an example of an innova-
tive company. What puts the company
among the top global competitors in a
high-technology market?
Mauro Kern — Embraer’s success is due
to producing the right product at the right
time for the right market segment. In the
1970s our first airplane, the Bandeirante,
took advantage of the deregulation of U.S.
air transport, and later deregulation in
many other countries, which stimulated
development of regional aviation. Then
in the 1980s and 1990s the growth of
regional aviation required a 50-seater
plane, and the big debate was whether
it should be a turboprop or a jet. After
several studies, we decided on a jet, and
the ERJ 145 aircraft was an outstanding
success, particularly in the U.S., because
agreements between pilot trade unions and
airlines limited plane size to 50 seats for
regional lines. Embraer actually arrived in
Embraer: Always
thinking ahead
Photo: Roosevelt Cassio
Mauro Kern
Embraer executive vice president of engineering and technology
Solange Monteiro, São José dos Campos
If you ask an executive of the Brazilian Aerospace
Corporation (Embraer) what is the company’s strategy
for success, he might well point to an iPhone. Like that
coveted technological device, the success of Embraer
aircraft is not based on research and development alone.
What also matters is knowing how to integrate into one
product advanced technology scattered throughout the
world to meet market needs as they arise. “You have to be
attherighttimewiththerightproductfortherightmarket
segment,” says Mauro Kern, executive vice president of
engineering and technology. Today, the company earns
in a year the combined total of what it made from 1969
through 1994, when it was privatized. And it might have
made more if it had not had to dismiss 4,200 employees
when the crisis hit global markets. The US$5.3 billion the
company recorded in 2010 came from contracts around
theworldandfromaburgeoningprivatejetmarket,where
in five years Embraer shot up to third, behind Bombardier
and Cessna. Kern explains how Embraer got where it is and
how it intends to sustain its success.
27. 2727
June 2011
INTERVIEW
Photo: ERJ-170, arquivo Embraer
this segment a little after Bombardier. But
we were able to increase ERJ 145 produc-
tion fantastically to meet demand, and our
competitor was not. To do that, we had to
do some things differently. For example,
we decided to paint the fuselage separate
from the wing and not wait till the entire
aircraft was assembled.
Is that when sharing the risk of new proj-
ects with suppliers started?
Yes, it started even before Embraer was
privatized when we began work on the
ERJ 145. The practice then was to pay
for the development of each component or
system and then hire different suppliers,
something Embraer could not afford.
Some partners agreed to bear the cost
of development in exchange for a stake
in our program. Without such partner-
ships the aircraft would not have been
possible. It was something different, and
driven by necessity. This model expanded
in the late 1990s and early 2000s. At
that point, the agreements between pilot
trade unions and U.S airlines began to
“Brazilian industry and
foreign firms located here are
still finding it difficult to
develop fully.”
Embraer sells the ERJ 170 model with 70 seats for regional flights in several countries.
28. 2828
Foto: crédito das fotos
June 2011
INTERVIEW
limit airline growth, so
we made the bold deci-
sion to build a family of
low-cost aircraft from 70
to 110 seats and began
to market to leading
companies. The Embraer
170 and 190 airplanes
have been successful —
we have delivered more
than 700. Meanwhile,
our supplier partners
have brought in increasingly integrated
solutions. This has become the standard
business model for the entire market.
Even though Embraer has been consoli-
dating its domestic supply chain, its
dependence on imports is still high
— 85% of the components are bought
abroad. What are the big problems in
attracting foreign suppliers and devel-
oping local suppliers?
Brazilian industry and foreign firms located
here are still finding it difficult to develop
fully. We have undertaken initiatives to
bring outside vendors to settle in Brazil,
such as Belgium’s Sonaca and German’s
Liebherr. But it is not easy, mainly because
of the tax issues, though there have been
major steps in exemptions — for example,
an imported component is tax-exempt if it
is used in a plane that is exported. However,
foreign companies have difficulty operating
in Brazil because of the complexity of fiscal
operations, logistics, and customs and the
“Brazil cost” (high airport and usage fees,
Siscomex, infrastructure, etc.).
Also, our competitive
advantages are nega-
tively affected when the
Brazilian real appreciates
against other curren-
cies, particularly the
U.S. dollar, even though
increasing the domestic
content is good for
everyone, Embraer and
the country. We need
a consolidated system
for developing technology for the entire
supply chain, using all the mechanisms
for promoting and supporting it, such as
Funding of Studies and Projects (FINEP);
different tax treatment; and measures to
lower the Brazil cost.
How likely is it that, like Bombardier,
Embraer will produce larger aircraft
(130–150 seats)?
Today’s family of aircraft is still quite
young and doing well in the market.
Bombardier devised regional aircraft in
the early 1990s, Airbus in 1980, and
Boeing in 1960. We are able to wait to see
how our competitors position themselves
before launching a new product. One
factor that stimulates all manufacturers
to bring new aircraft to market is the new
generation of engines with substantial fuel
economy. After studying alternatives, we
will make the right choice to have the right
product for the right business segment.
Competitors are emerging in markets
where Embraer is a leader, like Japan’s
Mitsubishi and companies in Russia
“It is not just a
matter of making
bigger aircraft
indiscriminately; the
edge lies in creating
smart solutions
for specific market
segments.”
29. 2929
June 2011
INTERVIEW
and China. How are you preparing for
increased competition?
In a way Embraer has become the main
adversary for all these companies. The
most successful 100-seat aircraft world-
wide is the Embraer 190. Other countries
that decided to produce aircraft have
decided not to compete with Boeing and
Airbus but enter the market segment
immediately below, where we operate.
China has an extraordinary captive
market for aircraft. Russia also has a large
protected market, with barriers to entry
for imported aircraft, and has significant
knowledge and aeronautical technology
for both commercial and military aviation.
Japan has no tradition in the industry but
has great technological strength. So we
look at all of them with great respect.
These are national, not company, projects
with very strong government support.
What is Embraer’s competitive edge?
We operate in a market segment that tends
to grow organically over time, though
other players will take market share —
the commercial aviation market is quite
competitive. We need to keep at the tech-
nology forefront. We wait until we have
a good reading of the
market and a differenti-
ated product. It is not
just a matter of making
bigger aircraft indis-
criminately; the edge lies
in creating smart solu-
tions for specific market
segments. That’s how in
a few years we have grown in the execu-
tive private jet market. The Legacy was
our first product, and then the Phenom
100, the most economical plane for eight
passengers. We are designing the Legacy
500 and 450 and already have the Legacy
650 and the more sophisticated Lineage
for up to 19 passengers.
How is your strategy supported by the
factory you just opened in the U.S. to
produce the Phenom, and the decision
to build the Legacy in China after the
attempt to produce the Embraer 190 was
shot down?
The Phenom 100 is quite small, the
customers are often individual users,
and the U.S. is its main market. It makes
sense to do final assembly there because
the transportation cost from factory to
customer is a considerable factor in total
cost.
In our plant in China we produced 41
Embraer 145s for local airlines — a success
for us and our partner, Avic. It was Embraer’s
first step in that thriving market. China’s fast
growth requires larger aircraft for regional
transport. We could not get approval to
build the Embraer 190 there; the Chinese
government wants to
eventually reserve that
market for domestic
products. This does
not prevent us from
selling the Embraer 190
in China now, and we
will continue doing so.
Another market surging
“Our supplier partners
have brought in
increasingly integrated
solutions. This has
become the standard
business model for the
market.”
30. 3030
Foto: crédito das fotos
June 2011
INTERVIEW
in China is executive jets.
Our first agreement has
not yet been finalized;
there are a lot of details
to be worked out with
our partner there and the
Chinese government, but
the market is very favor-
able for the Legacy.
Where is Embraer currently directing its
research and development?
We want to understand future geopolitics
and economic, energy, and environment
scenarios — how air travel demand will
evolve in 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, issues of
infrastructure, air traffic control, airports,
bottlenecks. We are also monitoring likely
technology developments. Our technology
development strategy is to consider all
these dimensions.
Some issues are obvious: climate change,
which is increasingly constraining aircraft
emissions; oil shortages; security issues,
in terms of both flight safety and criminal
activity.Ofcourse,wealsoareconcernedwith
technology, comfort and
convenience for passen-
gers, and financial issues
related to key customers.
With all this in mind, in
2010 we invested US$150
million in research and
development.
Embraer has significantly expanded its
defense and security products. Last year,
it spun off its defense unit into a separate
company, which then bought stakes in
companies concerned with communica-
tions systems, surveillance, and protection
of such strategic areas as borders. What
are your expectations for this new busi-
ness?
We see great potential in the areas of
defense and security. Aircraft are highly
complex systems, and there are synergies
with the defense and security markets.
It is a natural process of diversification
to increase the technological content of
products the company can market using
its core capabilities.
“Aircrafts are highly
complex systems, and
there are synergies
with the defense and
security markets.”
31. 31MONETARY POLICYJune 2011
31
Lower inflation,
higher interest rates
Coordinator of the Price Indexes of IBRE
I
nflation is falling every
month. The May results show
that the most acute price
pressures have subsided. Prices
of alcohol, gasoline, and fresh
food are declining significantly
and will help reduce inflation
next month. This will bring
relief especially for lower-income
families — but it would not
prevent 12-month inflation from
breaching the government target
for at least one quarter, jacking
up inflation expectations.
Neither declining monthly
inflation nor the still-increasing
12-month inflation are reliable
indicators of future inflation. Even
if inflation rates fall substantially
next quarter, it is legitimate to
As monthly rates of inflation continue to fall, the temptation will be to shorten the monetary
tightening cycle. Nothing would be more imprudent. The Central Bank should keep interest rates
high for longer than it envisaged at the beginning of the year.
Salomão Quadros
32. June 2011
MONETARY POLICY32
Nothing would
be more
imprudent
than premature
relaxation
of monetary
policy.
ask what the rate will be at year-end. If inflation levels
off at about 0.3%, the convergence to the center of
the inflation target will be relatively quick and can be
verified before year-end. But if it is higher, 0.5% to
0.6%, 12-month inflation may exceed the 6.5% top
bound of the inflation target at year-end.
Food and Services
There is a possibility that food prices will decline
because of better supply and less demand — unlike
2010, when prices rose over 10%. With the strong
production response, stimulated in Brazil and in
most producing countries by compensating levels of
pay, prices of agricultural raw materials are falling,
which has not happened since early 2010. Moreover,
with competition from imports and an appreciating
exchange rate, prices of durable consumer goods are
barely moving. For the 12 months ending in April,
new cars were only 0.22% more expensive.
The main obstacles to deceleration of inflation are
services and administered prices: 12-month services
inflation reached 8.6% in April. Services are not
subject to competition from imports and respond
primarily to increases in domestic demand, which
mainly reflects an overheated labor market. As for
prices administered by the government, little can
be done in the short term because they are defined
without direct relation to domestic demand.
Given the inflation crossroads envisaged for the
end of the year, the Central Bank should do what
it announced in the minutes of the last meeting of
the Monetary Policy Committee: keep interest rates
high for longer than was expected at the beginning
of the year. With monthly rates of inflation falling,
there is a great temptation to shorten the monetary
tightening cycle. Nothing would be more imprudent
than premature relaxation of monetary policy.