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Sustained economic improvement
driving occupancy and rent growth
United States Office Review Q2 2015
After a markedly slow first quarter, office
market fundamentals made a significant
rebound at the close of the second quarter,
undermining suggestions that both economic
and office-market growth were slowing. As
activity returns and, in many markets,
intensifies, much needed supply will offer new
growth opportunities to help carry the cycle
into the latter half of the decade.
Organic growth due to stronger macroeconomic fundamentals is
chipping away at vacancy and boosting landlord confidence
2
Source: JLL Research
Leasing activity
• Leasing activity jumped in Q2 2015 to 64.2 million square feet, up 16.9 percent compared to Q1. In line with
uptick in total transactional activity, six markets saw more than 3.0 million square feet of leasing in Q2.
Absorption
• After a slower Q1, Q2 posted a return to 0.4-percent levels of occupancy growth, or 14.4 million square feet,
while YTD absorption currently rests at 0.5 percent (20.6 million square feet) and is on track to exceed the
historic average for the sixth consecutive year.
• Industry hubs (Raleigh-Durham, Austin, Denver) joined primary markets as leads in YTD net absorption,
although sharp decreases in Houston’s growth push energy markets’ contribution down to just 5.9 percent.
Vacancy
• Strong quarterly absorption, even with an increase in completions, pushed total vacancy down 30 basis points
to 15.3 percent. CBD vacancy just 40 basis points from historic low, while suburban vacancy is 200 basis points
away.
Rents
• Markets continue to move along the property clock as rents rise on aggregate, although Houston is now in
falling phase. While not as fast as in Q1, Q2 2015 rental growth was among the highest quarterly figures this
cycle at 1.1 percent.
• CBD and suburban rents both rose in Q2 2015, but the gap widened even more to $16.43 per square foot.
Similarly, the premium for Class A space held steady at $5.12 per square foot.
Construction
• Construction volumes have risen by 9.3 percent since year-end 2014 to 86.2 m.s.f. in Q2 2015. Year-to-date,
completions already total 62.1 percent of YTD 2014, but this is still well below historical norms.
• Slightly under half of all U/C space is preleased, but this figure falls sharply looking only at speculative
development
Leasing activity
Leasing activity jumped in Q2 2015 to 64.2 million square feet,
up 16.9 percent compared to Q1
4
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Year-to-date, leasing activity is on track to meet 2014 levels;
currently 50.4 percent of 2014 total
5
258,547,529
246,521,385
228,764,145
275,274,581
282,356,988
234,094,033
249,187,644
236,140,690
119,130,711
0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
YTD 2015
Leasing activity (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
In line with uptick in total transactional activity, six markets saw
more than 3.0 million square feet of leasing in Q2 2015
6
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
11.9 MSF
7
31.5 m.s.f.
total square feet leased in Q2 in transactions
20,000 s.f. or larger
96
average term in months
43.7% / 46.3% /
10.0%
of tenants are growing / shrinking / stable
49.1% / 50.9%
urban 2 suburban breakdown
of Q1 volume
Only one-tenth of leasing activity was contractionary, while
transaction volumes continued to increase in Q2
Source: JLL Research
1,246,936
1,304,748
1,421,864
1,770,000
2,154,403
2,250,000
2,325,645
2,443,873
2,703,254
2,757,812
0 2,000,000 4,000,000
Houston
Phoenix
Chicago
Orange County
Denver
Washington, DC
Boston
New Jersey
Dallas
Los Angeles
1,770,000
2,443,873
2,770,815
3,032,955
3,333,813
3,444,800
3,626,133
5,250,000
7,105,496
0 5,000,000 10,000,000
Orange County
New Jersey
Denver
Dallas
Los Angeles
Boston
Chicago
Washington, DC
New York
8
Urban Suburban Total metro
423,950
472,275
576,001
609,746
616,412
1,119,155
1,451,987
2,204,269
3,000,000
7,105,496
0 5,000,000 10,000,000
Phoenix
Portland
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Denver
Boston
San Francisco
Chicago
Washington, DC
New York
Coastal markets dominated leasing activity in Q2 2015, led by
New York and DC
Source: JLL Research
9
Large leasing continues to take place throughout the United
States and by companies of varying industry clusters
Silicon Valley
Palo Alto Networks: 721,953 s.f.
Dallas
RealPage: 399,788 s.f.
Source: JLL Research
Detroit
Ally: 321,027 s.f.
San Francisco
Stripe: 300,000 s.f.
Denver
Comcast: 288,000 s.f.
New York
Bloomberg: 254,556 s.f.
Austin
Apple: 217,490 s.f.
Philadelphia
ABB: 115,000 s.f.
Seattle-Bellevue
HBO: 112,222 s.f.
Charlotte
Walmart: 107,609 s.f.
Phoenix
Infusionsoft: 100,622 s.f.
10
Other
Creative
Nonprofit
Consumer-oriented
Finance
Professional services
Scientific and technical
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000
Aerospace and defense
Association nonprofit union
Education
Accounting and consulting
All other industries
Advertising and marketing
Real estate
Media and entertainment
Life sciences
Energy and utilities
Manufacturing and distribution
Government
Retail and hospitality
Architecture and engineering
Law firm
Healthcare
Other PBS
Telecom
Banking and finance
Technology
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000
Leasing activity within the scientific and technical industry cluster… …dominated by technology companies, led activity in the fourth quarter
Tech, finance, telecom and other professional services dominated
leasing activity during Q2 2015
Source: JLL Research
11
214
88
49
58
24
52
24
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
Numberoftransactions(s.f.)
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
s.f. leased number of transactions
Small and mid-sized leases dominated number of transactions,
although large leases represented 49.8 percent of volume
Source: JLL Research
12
Total leasing activity >20,000 s.f. by building class % of tenants expanding in each building class
Leasing continues to be robust in Class A space, although
expansions are occurring across property classes
Source: JLL Research
450,929
2,110,618
7,350,039
21,596,213
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000
C
Trophy
B
A
25.7%
41.4%
53.8%
67.0%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%
Trophy
A
B
C
13
43.7%
of companies grew in Q2
10.0%
of companies shrunk in
Q2
46.3%
of companies were stable
in Q2
Technology
32.0% of companies
Banking, finance, insurance
12.6% of companies
Other professional services
10.9% of companies
Telecom
15.6% of companies
Banking, finance, insurance
15.0% of companies
Technology
10.4% of companies
Law firm
35.1% of companies
Healthcare
14.7% of companies
Architecture, engineering
12.3% of companies
Expansionary leases account for more than half of all large-block
activity, dominated by tech and finance
Source: JLL Research
43.2%
48.0%
56.0%
43.7%
48.7% 41.0%
34.0%
46.3%
8.1% 11.0% 10.0% 10.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
Growing Stable Shrinking
14
Source: JLL Research
On average, slightly under half of quarterly leasing activity is
now expansionary; only one-tenth represents contraction
9.8%
Shrinking
42.5%
Stable
47.7%
Growing
4-quarter average share
12.4%
19.5%
19.8%
22.4%
24.4%
27.1%
30.8%
33.1%
33.7%
36.0%
40.1%
41.8%
43.2%
55.0%
58.1%
62.3%
69.8%
75.2%
77.5%
40.6%
80.5%
74.3%
75.3%
67.8%
58.8%
69.2%
66.9%
66.3%
37.8%
40.5%
52.2%
48.4%
45.0%
26.6%
36.7%
25.8%
18.9%
22.5%
47.0%
0.0%
5.9%
2.3%
7.8%
14.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
26.2%
19.4%
6.0%
8.4%
0.0%
15.3%
0.0%
4.4%
5.9%
0.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Law
Transportation and aerospace
Manufacturing
Telecom
Accounting and consulting
Government
Life sciences
Energy and utilities
Associations
Architecture and engineering
Health care
Finance and banking
Media and entertainment
Education
Retail and hospitality
Other professional services
Technology
Advertising and marketing
Real estate
Share of leasing activity (%)
15
Skilled sectors such as real estate, advertising, tech and other
PBS posted the highest shares of expansionary leasing activity
Source: JLL Research
Absorption
After a slower Q1, Q2 posted a return to 0.4-percent levels of
occupancy growth
17
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Quarterlynetabsorption(as%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing annual average
YTD absorption currently rests at 0.5 percent; on track to exceed
the historic average for the sixth consecutive year
18
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YTDnetabsorption(as%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing
annual average
Nearly 69.6 percent of occupancy growth in Q2 2015 took place
in Class A properties
19
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Quarterly absorption in Class B space is now occurring 2.7x
faster than during earlier in the recovery
20
Source: JLL Research
21,579,344
12,845,274
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2010-Q2 2014 Past four quarters
ClassBnetabsorption(s.f.)
1,198,852 s.f. per quarter 3,211,318 s.f. per quarter
Market YTD net absorption (s.f.) Share
Dallas 2,880,550 14.0%
Silicon Valley 1,420,029 6.9%
Atlanta 1,260,109 6.1%
Boston 1,205,200 5.8%
Raleigh-Durham 1,182,448 5.7%
Chicago 1,085,046 5.3%
Los Angeles 887,879 4.3%
Austin 885,221 4.3%
Denver 829,801 4.0%
Philadelphia 815,226 4.0%
Detroit 795,213 3.9%
Tampa 728,710 3.5%
San Francisco 704,926 3.4%
Seattle-Bellevue 611,990 3.0%
All other markets 5,320,899 25.8%
United States 20,613,247 100.0%
Dallas Silicon Valley Atlanta Boston Raleigh-Durham
Chicago Los Angeles Austin Denver Philadelphia
Detroit Tampa Bay San Francisco Seattle-Bellevue All other markets
21
Source: JLL Research
Industry hubs (Raleigh-Durham, Austin, Denver) join primary
markets as leads in YTD net absorption
Growth in Atlanta, Boston, DC and New York, among other
markets, pushes East Coast into leading position
22
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Shareofquarterlynetabsorption
East Coast Central West Coast
Source: JLL Research
Sharp decreases in Houston occupancy growth push energy
markets’ contribution down to just 5.9 percent YTD in 2015
23
Source: JLL Research
NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South)
Tech markets (*includes Midtown South)
Energy markets
Sun belt
All other markets
70.0%
29.7%
6.4%
2010
5.1%
33.5%
19.0%
18.4%
23.9%
2011
0.0%
37.5%
26.0%
29.1%
7.4%
2012
11.1%
21.6%
22.3%
18.6%
26.4%
2013
13.7%
23.1%
15.3%
20.1%
27.8%
2014
0.0%
28.5%
5.9%
25.1%
40.5%
YTD 2015
Energy losses severe, but not yet negative; tech at or surpassing
national average, although supply constraints intensifying
24
0.8%
0.1%
0.4%
0.7%
0.9%
0.7%
0.8%
2.1%
0.9%
0.6% 0.6%
2.7%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
YTDnetabsorption(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Energy Tech Sun belt
U.S.
average
Occupancy growth on the East Coast coming back, but must
make up for Q1 losses in New York and DC
25
Source: JLL Research
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015
Netabsorption(s.f.)
Atlanta South Florida Rest of the East Coast
Quality space continues to lead, having contributed to 82.3
percent of net absorption since Q1 2010
26
Source: JLL Research
Trophy and Class A
net absorption
157.6
m.s.f.2010-YTD 2015
Class B and C net
absorption
33.9
m.s.f.2010-YTD 2015
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015
Netabsorption(s.f.)
Atlanta Chicago Los Angeles Miami Philadelphia Phoenix
Diversified markets have posted 5.1 million square feet of
occupancy growth in 2015 so far and poised for continued gains
27
Source: JLL Research
Class A’s share of annual occupancy growth has steadily
declined, but up slightly in 2015 year-to-date
28
133.4%
90.5%
85.3%
71.1% 70.5%
82.3%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ClassAshareofannualabsorption
Source: JLL Research
CBD Class A’s share of absorption has fallen even more, but
largely due to growth in suburbs and commodity space
29
70.1%
39.9%
4.5%
23.7%
30.8% 30.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ClassAshareofannualabsorption
Source: JLL Research
Demand for creative space pushing occupancy gains above
national average % of inventory
30
8.6%
4.9%
3.1% 3.1%
2.4%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Mid-Market (San
Francisco)
Mid-Cambridge (Boston) Austin CBD Pioneer Square (Seattle) Santa Monica (Los
Angeles)
YTDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
U.S. average
Still, Class A continues to outperform Class B according to most
indicators
31
Source: JLL Research
82.3%of absorbed space in 2015
has been Class A
$11.43per square foot difference
between Class A and B space…
45.8%premium charged for Class A space
versus Class B
-270bpdifference between Class A and
Class B total vacancy
Vacancy
Strong quarterly absorption, even with an increase in
completions, pushed total vacancy down 30bp to 15.3 percent
33
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Total vacancy is now roughly halfway to its pre-recession low;
high preleasing levels should help keep vacancy down
34
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Vacancy is falling fastest in quality space, then core locations;
uneven in Class C and suburban B properties
35
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Totalvacancy(%)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
After a pause in Q1, increasing office-sector hiring once again
coincided with falling vacancy
36
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
25,500
26,000
26,500
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
30,500
31,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Totalvacancy(%)
Office-usingemployment(thousands)
Office-using employment (thousands) Total vacancy (%)
Source: JLL Research
CBD vacancy just 40 basis points from historic low, while
suburban vacancy is 200 basis points away
37
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Despite an increase in sublease space in peaking markets such as
Houston, total sublease space is falling sharply across the U.S.
38
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Subleasespace(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Rents
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Markets continue to move along the property clock as rents rise
on aggregate; Houston now in falling phase
Source: JLL Research
Atlanta, Denver, Jacksonville,
Miami, Orange County, Phoenix, United States
Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Kansas City,
Richmond, Salt Lake City
Baltimore, San Antonio
West Palm Beach, Westchester County
Chicago, Indianapolis, Raleigh-Durham
Austin, Dallas, San Francisco
Charlotte, Cincinnati, Fairfield County, San Diego
Boston, Tampa
Columbus, Sacramento
Hampton Roads, St. Louis
Houston
Cleveland, Detroit, Long Island,
Milwaukee, Philadelphia
New York
Seattle-Bellevue
Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Portland
Minneapolis
San Francisco Peninsula, Silicon Valley
New Jersey,
Washington, DC
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Source: JLL Research
Fort Lauderdale, Miami
Baltimore, Richmond,
St. Louis
Milwaukee, Phoenix, West Palm Beach
Charlotte, Greenwich, Indianapolis
Boston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Seattle
Orlando, United States
Cincinnati, Cleveland, Stamford
Columbus, San Antonio
Minneapolis, San Jose, Tampa
Detroit; Sacramento; San Diego;
Washington, DC; White Plains
Atlanta, Denver
Midtown (New York), Raleigh-Durham
Austin, Midtown South (New York),
San Francisco
Chicago, Downtown (New York),
Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Salt Lake City
Houston
Portland
Kansas City
CBDs display slightly less variance, continue to be ahead of
suburbs as supply constraints are evident
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Source: JLL Research
Charlotte, Detroit, Fairfield County, Fort Lauderdale, Hampton
Roads, Miami, Milwaukee, Orlando, Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham
West Palm Beach
Atlanta, Denver, Indianapolis,
San Diego, Westchester County, United States
Dallas
Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati
Cleveland, Columbus, San Antonio
Richmond
Boston, Jacksonville, Minneapolis,
Orange County, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Tampa
Seattle-Bellevue (non-CBD), St. Louis
Cambridge, San Francisco (non-CBD)
Houston
Bellevue CBD
Nassau County, Portland
Central New Jersey,
Lehigh Valley, Northern
Delaware, Sacramento
Northern New Jersey
San Francisco Peninsula
Austin
Silicon Valley
Kansas City, Los Angeles
Suffolk County
Pittsburgh
Washington, DC
Southern New Jersey
Tech and energy suburbs are at peak, while remainder are
catching up to urban cores
Although not as fast as in Q1, Q2 2015 rental growth was among
the highest quarterly figures this cycle at 1.1 percent
43
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Quarterlyrentgrowth(%)
Source: JLL Research
Up 5.3 percent year-on-year CBD Class A rents continue to grow
the fastest; flat for Class B
44
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Averageaskingrents($p.s.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Since Q1 2010, CBD Class A rents have grown by more than
one-fifth; Suburban Class B barely increased in nominal terms
45
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GrowthinaskingrentssinceQ12010
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
+22.7%
CBD Class A
+12.8%
Suburban Class C
+14.5%
CBD Class C
+8.1%
Suburban Class A
+7.7%
CBD Class B
+1.7%
Suburban Class B
CBD and suburban rents both rose in Q2 2015, but the gap
widened even more to $16.43 p.s.f. (+66.3 percent)
46
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Averageaskingrent($p.s.f)
CBD Suburbs
Source: JLL Research
$11.36
$16.43
The Class A premium held firm in Q2 due to limited supply and
higher-priced new construction pushing up rents
47
$3.40
$3.49 $3.49
$3.53
$3.68
$3.81
$3.97 $3.99
$4.21
$4.26
$4.37 $4.38
$4.86
$4.71
$4.82
$4.76
$4.97
$4.92 $4.90
$4.81
$5.13 $5.12
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ClassApremium($p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
TI allowances are beginning to elevate due to new construction
providing higher concessions, but free months are declining
48
3.5
4.1
5.1
6.1 6.2
5.7
5.1
5.3
5.8
5.4
$23.00
$24.00
$25.00
$26.00
$27.00
$28.00
$29.00
$30.00
$31.00
$32.00
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TIallowance($p.s.f.)
Freemonthsofrent
Free months of rent TI allowance ($ p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Construction
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Underconstruction(s.f.)
50
Source: JLL Research
Construction volumes up 8.4 percent since year-end 2014 to 86.2
m.s.f. in Q2 2015
Market Under construction (s.f.) Share
Houston 11,114,260 12.9%
New York 9,487,363 11.0%
Dallas 8,508,652 9.9%
Seattle-Bellevue 7,030,599 8.1%
Washington, DC 5,227,655 6.1%
Silicon Valley 5,043,620 5.8%
Boston 4,522,701 5.2%
Phoenix 3,411,901 4.0%
San Francisco 3,134,205 3.6%
Denver 3,120,372 3.6%
Chicago 3,055,164 3.5%
Philadelphia 2,967,329 3.4%
Austin 2,913,140 3.4%
Los Angeles 1,951,171 2.3%
All other markets 14,779,400 17.1%
United States 86,267,532 100.0%
Houston New York Dallas Seattle-Bellevue Washington, DC
Silicon Valley Boston Phoenix San Francisco Denver
Chicago Philadelphia Austin Los Angeles All other markets
51
Source: JLL Research
Houston’s share of development activity has fallen due to
completions and slowing demand; rising elsewhere
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Completions(s.f.)
52
15.6 m.s.f.
Source: JLL Research
Average completions: 46.0 m.s.f.
YTD 2015 completions already total 62.1 percent of YTD 2014;
still well below historical norms
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Completions(s.f.)
Speculative BTS
53
Source: JLL Research
Roughly half of all development will deliver in 2016; remainder
will mostly deliver throughout the rest of 2015 and 2017
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Completions(s.f.)
Available Preleased
54
Source: JLL Research
Due to high levels of preleasing, only 43.4 m.s.f. of construction
will be available upon delivery in 2015 and 2016
7,322,061
11,407,786
13,060,032
4,781,395
11,818,372
9,168,187
9,855,374
12,720,560 12,810,553
9,748,464
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2013 2014 2015
Starts(s.f.)
55
Source: JLL Research
Construction starts slowed somewhat in Q2, but are 6.3 percent
higher than this time last year
Market Starts (s.f.) Share
New York 2,300,000 23.6%
Dallas 1,240,824 12.7%
Charlotte 978,309 10.0%
Denver 904,767 9.3%
San Francisco Peninsula 775,614 8.0%
Chicago 763,000 7.8%
Cincinnati 485,000 5.0%
Seattle 473,937 4.9%
Washington, DC 439,394 4.5%
Miami 315,000 3.2%
San Diego 297,441 3.1%
Portland 244,444 2.5%
New Jersey 185,000 1.9%
Fort Lauderdale 143,535 1.5%
Phoenix 125,000 1.3%
Silicon Valley 77,199 0.8%
United States 9,748,464 100.0%
New York Dallas Charlotte
Denver San Francisco Peninsula Chicago
Cincinnati Seattle Washington, DC
Miami San Diego Portland
New Jersey Fort Lauderdale Phoenix
Silicon Valley
56
Source: JLL Research
The office component of Brookfield’s Manhattan West project
made New York the leader in starts in Q2
Market Starts (s.f.) Share
Trammell Crow 3,631,840 4.2%
Hines 3,539,334 4.1%
KDC 3,015,000 3.5%
Silverstein 2,861,402 3.3%
Brookfield 2,554,500 3.0%
Boston Properties 2,220,081 2.6%
Related 1,700,000 2.0%
Liberty 1,462,000 1.7%
Schnitzer West 1,391,000 1.6%
Lincoln 1,334,115 1.5%
O'Donnell 1,229,064 1.4%
Crescent 1,130,000 1.3%
Touchstone 1,098,044 1.3%
Tishman Speyer 1,025,248 1.2%
All other markets 58,828,904 67.3%
United States 86,267,532 100.0%
Trammell Crow Hines KDC Silverstein Brookfield
Boston Properties Related Liberty Schnitzer West Lincoln
O'Donnell Crescent Touchstone Tishman Speyer All other markets
57
Source: JLL Research
Trammell Crow, Hines, KDC and Silverstein are building 15.1
percent of development underway
58
47.8%
All properties
29.8%
Spec only
Source: JLL Research
Although slightly under half of all U/C space is preleased, this
figure falls sharply looking only at speculative development
19.6%
22.9%
27.5%
35.2%
39.6%
46.6%
48.1%
50.6%
52.5%
55.6%
65.4%
66.6%
69.3%
74.5%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
Los Angeles
Denver
New York
Austin
Seattle-Bellevue
Silicon Valley
Houston
Boston
Washington, DC
San Francisco
Dallas
Chicago
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Preleasing rate (%)
59
Source: JLL Research
BTS-heavy markets such as Phoenix, Philadelphia and Dallas are
posting the highest preleasing rates nationally
60
609 Main at Texas (Hines)
Houston
1,057,668 s.f.
390 Madison Avenue (L&L)
New York
858,710 s.f.
One SoHo Square (Rockpoint)
New York
768,000 s.f.
6 Houston Center (Crescent)
Houston
600,000 s.f.
Source: JLL Research
Energy Center V (Trammell Crow)
Houston
505,000 s.f.
1775 Tysons Boulevard (Lerner)
Northern Virginia
476,913 s.f.
929 Office Tower (Trammell Crow)
Bellevue
462,000 s.f.
Three Alliance (Tishman Speyer)
Atlanta
500,000 s.f.
As confidence builds, speculative developments without any
preleasing are rising
$51.66
$45.15
$36.38
$24.95
$23.52
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
Trophy U/C Class A U/C Class A Class B Class C
Directaverageaskingrent($p.s.f.)
61
Source: JLL Research
With rents approaching $52 per square foot for Trophy space,
new construction commands a very large premium
$75.00
$75.50
$76.00
$80.00
$80.00
$80.00
$85.00
$85.00
$85.00
$90.00
$95.00
$110.00
$159.00
$60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180
100 Northern Avenue (Boston)
222 2nd Street (San Francisco)
2001 M Street NW (Washington, DC)
600 Massachusetts Avenue NW (Washington, DC)
333 Brannan Street (San Francisco)
345 Brannan Street (San Francisco)
350 Bush Street (San Francisco)
Pickwick Plaza (Fairfield County)
1000 F Street NW (Washington, DC)
1450 Page Mill Road (Silicon Valley)
181 Fremont Street (San Francisco)
Salesforce Tower (San Francisco)
135 Hamilton Avenue (Silicon Valley)
62
Source: JLL Research – data for many high-profile properties, such as 3 World Trade Center and 10 Hudson Yards in New York, is not available
Speaking to demand and the need for new, quality space, multiple
buildings in the Bay Area and DC are asking more than $80 p.s.f.
Sales
With $39.2 billion of office transactions in second quarter, nearly
60 percent of full-year 2014 deal flow closed in first half 2015
64
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Officeinvestmentsalevolumes($billions)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: JLL Research
Strong deals in Boston, NY and growing pipeline in others driving
primary market growth of 55.3 percent first half 2015 Y-o-Y
65
18
6
5
6
8
26
4
11
17 17
7
1
5
8
4
5
19 19
2
9
7
12
6
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Boston New York San Francisco Seattle-Bellevue Chicago Los Angeles Washington, DC Houston
Numberofofficeinvestmentsales
Source: JLL Research
..with four of eight primary markets exceeded $1.0 billion
66
Atlanta second quarter deal flow more than doubled over first quarter
$6,137
$2,284
$1,942
$1,388
$1,179
$841 $676 $667 $656 $568
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Toptenmarketvolumes($millions)
Primary markets Secondary markets
Source: JLL Research
From broader perspective, primary markets are up 55.3 percent
YTD compared to 2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Primarymarketinvestmentvolumes($millions)
First Half 2014 First Half 2015
67
San Francisco and LA are currently behind first half of 2014
Source: JLL Research
As East Coast CBD investment increases, Boston and West Coast
investment strategies diversifying further into the Suburbs
68
100%
81%
60%
66% 65%
50%
55%
25%
100% 99%
69%
90%
47%
66%
55%
13%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
New York Chicago Houston Washington, DC Boston Seattle-Bellevue San Francisco Los Angeles
CBDinvestmentsales(asa%oftotalvolumes)
2014 First Half 2015
Source: JLL Research
Westside
Palo Alto /
Santa Clara
Lake Union /
Belltown
Cambridge /
495 Mass
Pike
14.1%
62.2%
23.7%
Trophy Class A Class B
Resurgence in Trophy activity with one-third of comparable full-
year 2014 sales in second quarter
69
19.3%
55.8%
24.9%
Trophy Class A Class B
Source: JLL Research
2014
YTD
2015
$1,054
$841
$417 $331 $253
Atlanta Northern
and Central
NJ
San Diego Phoenix Northern
Virginia
$6,137
$1,926
$1,049 $1,031
$667
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Primary markets dominating CBD investment activity; non-CBD
volumes led by secondary markets
70
Most active CBD markets Most active Non-CBD markets
Of CBD volumes in Primary markets Of Non-CBD volumes in Secondary markets
Source: JLL Research
Q1officeinvestmentsalevolume(millionsof$US)
56.7%
43.3%
Primary markets Secondary markets
Secondary market activity continues to rise on a square footage
basis, accounting for 56.0 percent of 2015 activity year-to-date
71
Source: JLL Research
47.1%
52.9%
Primary markets Secondary markets
43.9%
56.0%
Primary markets Secondary markets
And more than 45.0 million square feet of non-CBD deal flow
drove secondary market volumes in the second quarter
72
44%
40%
50%
57%
43%
69%
52%
45%
56%
51%
27%
28%
27%
24%
27%
15%
17%
24%
16%
15%
13% 17%
10% 7%
14%
9%
10% 14% 8%
11%16% 15% 13% 13% 17%
7%
21% 17% 21%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2
Primary CBD Primary Non-CBD Secondary CBD Secondary Non-CBD
Source: JLL Research
Moreover, secondary markets grew 19.6 percent in Q2 outpacing
Primary market growth
$4.6
$5.6
$6.3
$7.4
$5.8
$3.7
$5.8
$6.6
$6.2
$7.4
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2
Secondarymarketvolume($billions)
73
Source: JLL Research
Only Phoenix was top five secondary market to fall short of first
quarter volume
$451
$28
$133
$227
$639
$1,179
$841
$676
$461 $435
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Atlanta Northern and Central NJ Philadelphia San Diego Phoenix
Top5secondarymarket($millions)
Mesirow Realty
purchase of Verizon
Center
Source: JLL Research
74
Secondary market class A, B and Trophy volumes are at 62
percent of 2014 volumes year-to-date
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2
Secondarymarketbuildingclassvolumes($millions)
75
Class A office
$150 M from
peak levels
Source: JLL Research
Foreign investment up 57.1 percent year-to-date, China has
surpassed high water mark in 2007
76
Norway
33%
Germany
22%
Canada
21%
South Korea
14%
United
Kingdom
5%
All else
5%
China, 35%
Canada, 27%
Germany,
10%
Norway, 6%
South
Korea, 5%
All else, 15%
2015 YTD2014Source: JLL Research
Percentageofforeigninvestmentbycountry
New York,
70%
Washington,
DC, 14%
Seattle-
Bellevue, 8%
San
Francisco, 3%
All else,
5%
2015 YTD
77
New York,
47%
Washington,
DC, 21%
Northern
Virginia, 6%
Seattle-
Bellevue, 5%
Houston, 5%
All else, 16%
2014Source: JLL Research
Percentageofinvestmentintomarketsbyforeigncountries
Foreign appetite for quality assets in New York remains high
and growing
Outlook
79
Source: JLL Research
2015 outlook strongest in nearly a decade
Nearly half of all tenants leasing space over the past four quarters are growing, dominated by
scientific and technical industries (most predominantly tech and telecom). This should accelerate
over the next 12-18 months as economic stability encourages business growth.
Occupancy gains were more diversely spread across markets with DC and New York making
significant comebacks from the first quarter while Los Angeles, Atlanta and Dallas continued to heat
up. This geographic and industry diversity will continue to boost absorption in coming quarters with
the notable exception of Houston, where fallout from the oil and energy will further slow growth and
potentially lead to occupancy losses later in the year.
As expansionary leases begin to commence ahead of new supply, we expect to see vacancy fall
below 15 percent by year-end. Over the next two years, however, that rate will creep back upward
as markets steady themselves for the largest pipeline of new supply in nearly a decade—currently at
86 million square feet.
If market momentum continues, as we expect it will, rents could see additional increases that reach
a cumulative 5-7 percent annual growth rate by year-end.
1.
2.
3.
4.
By all accounts, economic and corporate
confidence are stable and growing. This will
only further translate into office market
expansion and value appreciation as supply
and demand become unbalanced in landlords’
favor over the next two to four quarters.
Occupiers will be hard-pressed in negotiations
in the near-term, but rent growth and leverage
should begin to decelerate toward the end of
2016 as the majority of the development
pipeline will be complete.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015
Julia Georgules
Director – Office Research
+1 415 354 6908
Julia.Georgules@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
+1 202 719 6295
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
Sean Coghlan
Director – Capital Markets Research
+1 215 988 5556
Sean.Coghlan@am.jll.com
Seth Kazarian
Research Analyst – Capital Markets
+1 312 228 3478
Seth.Kazarian@am.jll.com
>> Click to learn more, and see
market-by-market data

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U.S. Office market statistics, trends and outlook: Q2 2015

  • 1. Sustained economic improvement driving occupancy and rent growth United States Office Review Q2 2015
  • 2. After a markedly slow first quarter, office market fundamentals made a significant rebound at the close of the second quarter, undermining suggestions that both economic and office-market growth were slowing. As activity returns and, in many markets, intensifies, much needed supply will offer new growth opportunities to help carry the cycle into the latter half of the decade.
  • 3. Organic growth due to stronger macroeconomic fundamentals is chipping away at vacancy and boosting landlord confidence 2 Source: JLL Research Leasing activity • Leasing activity jumped in Q2 2015 to 64.2 million square feet, up 16.9 percent compared to Q1. In line with uptick in total transactional activity, six markets saw more than 3.0 million square feet of leasing in Q2. Absorption • After a slower Q1, Q2 posted a return to 0.4-percent levels of occupancy growth, or 14.4 million square feet, while YTD absorption currently rests at 0.5 percent (20.6 million square feet) and is on track to exceed the historic average for the sixth consecutive year. • Industry hubs (Raleigh-Durham, Austin, Denver) joined primary markets as leads in YTD net absorption, although sharp decreases in Houston’s growth push energy markets’ contribution down to just 5.9 percent. Vacancy • Strong quarterly absorption, even with an increase in completions, pushed total vacancy down 30 basis points to 15.3 percent. CBD vacancy just 40 basis points from historic low, while suburban vacancy is 200 basis points away. Rents • Markets continue to move along the property clock as rents rise on aggregate, although Houston is now in falling phase. While not as fast as in Q1, Q2 2015 rental growth was among the highest quarterly figures this cycle at 1.1 percent. • CBD and suburban rents both rose in Q2 2015, but the gap widened even more to $16.43 per square foot. Similarly, the premium for Class A space held steady at $5.12 per square foot. Construction • Construction volumes have risen by 9.3 percent since year-end 2014 to 86.2 m.s.f. in Q2 2015. Year-to-date, completions already total 62.1 percent of YTD 2014, but this is still well below historical norms. • Slightly under half of all U/C space is preleased, but this figure falls sharply looking only at speculative development
  • 5. Leasing activity jumped in Q2 2015 to 64.2 million square feet, up 16.9 percent compared to Q1 4 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Leasingactivity(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 6. Year-to-date, leasing activity is on track to meet 2014 levels; currently 50.4 percent of 2014 total 5 258,547,529 246,521,385 228,764,145 275,274,581 282,356,988 234,094,033 249,187,644 236,140,690 119,130,711 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015 Leasing activity (s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 7. In line with uptick in total transactional activity, six markets saw more than 3.0 million square feet of leasing in Q2 2015 6 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 Leasingactivity(s.f.) Source: JLL Research 11.9 MSF
  • 8. 7 31.5 m.s.f. total square feet leased in Q2 in transactions 20,000 s.f. or larger 96 average term in months 43.7% / 46.3% / 10.0% of tenants are growing / shrinking / stable 49.1% / 50.9% urban 2 suburban breakdown of Q1 volume Only one-tenth of leasing activity was contractionary, while transaction volumes continued to increase in Q2 Source: JLL Research
  • 9. 1,246,936 1,304,748 1,421,864 1,770,000 2,154,403 2,250,000 2,325,645 2,443,873 2,703,254 2,757,812 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 Houston Phoenix Chicago Orange County Denver Washington, DC Boston New Jersey Dallas Los Angeles 1,770,000 2,443,873 2,770,815 3,032,955 3,333,813 3,444,800 3,626,133 5,250,000 7,105,496 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 Orange County New Jersey Denver Dallas Los Angeles Boston Chicago Washington, DC New York 8 Urban Suburban Total metro 423,950 472,275 576,001 609,746 616,412 1,119,155 1,451,987 2,204,269 3,000,000 7,105,496 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 Phoenix Portland Los Angeles Minneapolis Denver Boston San Francisco Chicago Washington, DC New York Coastal markets dominated leasing activity in Q2 2015, led by New York and DC Source: JLL Research
  • 10. 9 Large leasing continues to take place throughout the United States and by companies of varying industry clusters Silicon Valley Palo Alto Networks: 721,953 s.f. Dallas RealPage: 399,788 s.f. Source: JLL Research Detroit Ally: 321,027 s.f. San Francisco Stripe: 300,000 s.f. Denver Comcast: 288,000 s.f. New York Bloomberg: 254,556 s.f. Austin Apple: 217,490 s.f. Philadelphia ABB: 115,000 s.f. Seattle-Bellevue HBO: 112,222 s.f. Charlotte Walmart: 107,609 s.f. Phoenix Infusionsoft: 100,622 s.f.
  • 11. 10 Other Creative Nonprofit Consumer-oriented Finance Professional services Scientific and technical 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Aerospace and defense Association nonprofit union Education Accounting and consulting All other industries Advertising and marketing Real estate Media and entertainment Life sciences Energy and utilities Manufacturing and distribution Government Retail and hospitality Architecture and engineering Law firm Healthcare Other PBS Telecom Banking and finance Technology 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 Leasing activity within the scientific and technical industry cluster… …dominated by technology companies, led activity in the fourth quarter Tech, finance, telecom and other professional services dominated leasing activity during Q2 2015 Source: JLL Research
  • 12. 11 214 88 49 58 24 52 24 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 Numberoftransactions(s.f.) Leasingactivity(s.f.) s.f. leased number of transactions Small and mid-sized leases dominated number of transactions, although large leases represented 49.8 percent of volume Source: JLL Research
  • 13. 12 Total leasing activity >20,000 s.f. by building class % of tenants expanding in each building class Leasing continues to be robust in Class A space, although expansions are occurring across property classes Source: JLL Research 450,929 2,110,618 7,350,039 21,596,213 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 C Trophy B A 25.7% 41.4% 53.8% 67.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% Trophy A B C
  • 14. 13 43.7% of companies grew in Q2 10.0% of companies shrunk in Q2 46.3% of companies were stable in Q2 Technology 32.0% of companies Banking, finance, insurance 12.6% of companies Other professional services 10.9% of companies Telecom 15.6% of companies Banking, finance, insurance 15.0% of companies Technology 10.4% of companies Law firm 35.1% of companies Healthcare 14.7% of companies Architecture, engineering 12.3% of companies Expansionary leases account for more than half of all large-block activity, dominated by tech and finance Source: JLL Research
  • 15. 43.2% 48.0% 56.0% 43.7% 48.7% 41.0% 34.0% 46.3% 8.1% 11.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Growing Stable Shrinking 14 Source: JLL Research On average, slightly under half of quarterly leasing activity is now expansionary; only one-tenth represents contraction 9.8% Shrinking 42.5% Stable 47.7% Growing 4-quarter average share
  • 16. 12.4% 19.5% 19.8% 22.4% 24.4% 27.1% 30.8% 33.1% 33.7% 36.0% 40.1% 41.8% 43.2% 55.0% 58.1% 62.3% 69.8% 75.2% 77.5% 40.6% 80.5% 74.3% 75.3% 67.8% 58.8% 69.2% 66.9% 66.3% 37.8% 40.5% 52.2% 48.4% 45.0% 26.6% 36.7% 25.8% 18.9% 22.5% 47.0% 0.0% 5.9% 2.3% 7.8% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.2% 19.4% 6.0% 8.4% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 4.4% 5.9% 0.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Law Transportation and aerospace Manufacturing Telecom Accounting and consulting Government Life sciences Energy and utilities Associations Architecture and engineering Health care Finance and banking Media and entertainment Education Retail and hospitality Other professional services Technology Advertising and marketing Real estate Share of leasing activity (%) 15 Skilled sectors such as real estate, advertising, tech and other PBS posted the highest shares of expansionary leasing activity Source: JLL Research
  • 18. After a slower Q1, Q2 posted a return to 0.4-percent levels of occupancy growth 17 -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Quarterlynetabsorption(as%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research 15-year trailing annual average
  • 19. YTD absorption currently rests at 0.5 percent; on track to exceed the historic average for the sixth consecutive year 18 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTDnetabsorption(as%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research 15-year trailing annual average
  • 20. Nearly 69.6 percent of occupancy growth in Q2 2015 took place in Class A properties 19 -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 21. Quarterly absorption in Class B space is now occurring 2.7x faster than during earlier in the recovery 20 Source: JLL Research 21,579,344 12,845,274 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2010-Q2 2014 Past four quarters ClassBnetabsorption(s.f.) 1,198,852 s.f. per quarter 3,211,318 s.f. per quarter
  • 22. Market YTD net absorption (s.f.) Share Dallas 2,880,550 14.0% Silicon Valley 1,420,029 6.9% Atlanta 1,260,109 6.1% Boston 1,205,200 5.8% Raleigh-Durham 1,182,448 5.7% Chicago 1,085,046 5.3% Los Angeles 887,879 4.3% Austin 885,221 4.3% Denver 829,801 4.0% Philadelphia 815,226 4.0% Detroit 795,213 3.9% Tampa 728,710 3.5% San Francisco 704,926 3.4% Seattle-Bellevue 611,990 3.0% All other markets 5,320,899 25.8% United States 20,613,247 100.0% Dallas Silicon Valley Atlanta Boston Raleigh-Durham Chicago Los Angeles Austin Denver Philadelphia Detroit Tampa Bay San Francisco Seattle-Bellevue All other markets 21 Source: JLL Research Industry hubs (Raleigh-Durham, Austin, Denver) join primary markets as leads in YTD net absorption
  • 23. Growth in Atlanta, Boston, DC and New York, among other markets, pushes East Coast into leading position 22 -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Shareofquarterlynetabsorption East Coast Central West Coast Source: JLL Research
  • 24. Sharp decreases in Houston occupancy growth push energy markets’ contribution down to just 5.9 percent YTD in 2015 23 Source: JLL Research NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South) Tech markets (*includes Midtown South) Energy markets Sun belt All other markets 70.0% 29.7% 6.4% 2010 5.1% 33.5% 19.0% 18.4% 23.9% 2011 0.0% 37.5% 26.0% 29.1% 7.4% 2012 11.1% 21.6% 22.3% 18.6% 26.4% 2013 13.7% 23.1% 15.3% 20.1% 27.8% 2014 0.0% 28.5% 5.9% 25.1% 40.5% YTD 2015
  • 25. Energy losses severe, but not yet negative; tech at or surpassing national average, although supply constraints intensifying 24 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 2.7% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% YTDnetabsorption(s.f.) Source: JLL Research Energy Tech Sun belt U.S. average
  • 26. Occupancy growth on the East Coast coming back, but must make up for Q1 losses in New York and DC 25 Source: JLL Research -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015 Netabsorption(s.f.) Atlanta South Florida Rest of the East Coast
  • 27. Quality space continues to lead, having contributed to 82.3 percent of net absorption since Q1 2010 26 Source: JLL Research Trophy and Class A net absorption 157.6 m.s.f.2010-YTD 2015 Class B and C net absorption 33.9 m.s.f.2010-YTD 2015
  • 28. -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015 Netabsorption(s.f.) Atlanta Chicago Los Angeles Miami Philadelphia Phoenix Diversified markets have posted 5.1 million square feet of occupancy growth in 2015 so far and poised for continued gains 27 Source: JLL Research
  • 29. Class A’s share of annual occupancy growth has steadily declined, but up slightly in 2015 year-to-date 28 133.4% 90.5% 85.3% 71.1% 70.5% 82.3% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ClassAshareofannualabsorption Source: JLL Research
  • 30. CBD Class A’s share of absorption has fallen even more, but largely due to growth in suburbs and commodity space 29 70.1% 39.9% 4.5% 23.7% 30.8% 30.9% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ClassAshareofannualabsorption Source: JLL Research
  • 31. Demand for creative space pushing occupancy gains above national average % of inventory 30 8.6% 4.9% 3.1% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% Mid-Market (San Francisco) Mid-Cambridge (Boston) Austin CBD Pioneer Square (Seattle) Santa Monica (Los Angeles) YTDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research U.S. average
  • 32. Still, Class A continues to outperform Class B according to most indicators 31 Source: JLL Research 82.3%of absorbed space in 2015 has been Class A $11.43per square foot difference between Class A and B space… 45.8%premium charged for Class A space versus Class B -270bpdifference between Class A and Class B total vacancy
  • 34. Strong quarterly absorption, even with an increase in completions, pushed total vacancy down 30bp to 15.3 percent 33 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 35. Total vacancy is now roughly halfway to its pre-recession low; high preleasing levels should help keep vacancy down 34 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 36. Vacancy is falling fastest in quality space, then core locations; uneven in Class C and suburban B properties 35 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Totalvacancy(%) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 37. After a pause in Q1, increasing office-sector hiring once again coincided with falling vacancy 36 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 30,000 30,500 31,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Totalvacancy(%) Office-usingemployment(thousands) Office-using employment (thousands) Total vacancy (%) Source: JLL Research
  • 38. CBD vacancy just 40 basis points from historic low, while suburban vacancy is 200 basis points away 37 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 23.0% Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 39. Despite an increase in sublease space in peaking markets such as Houston, total sublease space is falling sharply across the U.S. 38 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subleasespace(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 40. Rents
  • 41. Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Markets continue to move along the property clock as rents rise on aggregate; Houston now in falling phase Source: JLL Research Atlanta, Denver, Jacksonville, Miami, Orange County, Phoenix, United States Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Kansas City, Richmond, Salt Lake City Baltimore, San Antonio West Palm Beach, Westchester County Chicago, Indianapolis, Raleigh-Durham Austin, Dallas, San Francisco Charlotte, Cincinnati, Fairfield County, San Diego Boston, Tampa Columbus, Sacramento Hampton Roads, St. Louis Houston Cleveland, Detroit, Long Island, Milwaukee, Philadelphia New York Seattle-Bellevue Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Portland Minneapolis San Francisco Peninsula, Silicon Valley New Jersey, Washington, DC
  • 42. Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Source: JLL Research Fort Lauderdale, Miami Baltimore, Richmond, St. Louis Milwaukee, Phoenix, West Palm Beach Charlotte, Greenwich, Indianapolis Boston, Dallas, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Seattle Orlando, United States Cincinnati, Cleveland, Stamford Columbus, San Antonio Minneapolis, San Jose, Tampa Detroit; Sacramento; San Diego; Washington, DC; White Plains Atlanta, Denver Midtown (New York), Raleigh-Durham Austin, Midtown South (New York), San Francisco Chicago, Downtown (New York), Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Salt Lake City Houston Portland Kansas City CBDs display slightly less variance, continue to be ahead of suburbs as supply constraints are evident
  • 43. Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Source: JLL Research Charlotte, Detroit, Fairfield County, Fort Lauderdale, Hampton Roads, Miami, Milwaukee, Orlando, Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham West Palm Beach Atlanta, Denver, Indianapolis, San Diego, Westchester County, United States Dallas Baltimore, Chicago, Cincinnati Cleveland, Columbus, San Antonio Richmond Boston, Jacksonville, Minneapolis, Orange County, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Tampa Seattle-Bellevue (non-CBD), St. Louis Cambridge, San Francisco (non-CBD) Houston Bellevue CBD Nassau County, Portland Central New Jersey, Lehigh Valley, Northern Delaware, Sacramento Northern New Jersey San Francisco Peninsula Austin Silicon Valley Kansas City, Los Angeles Suffolk County Pittsburgh Washington, DC Southern New Jersey Tech and energy suburbs are at peak, while remainder are catching up to urban cores
  • 44. Although not as fast as in Q1, Q2 2015 rental growth was among the highest quarterly figures this cycle at 1.1 percent 43 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Quarterlyrentgrowth(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 45. Up 5.3 percent year-on-year CBD Class A rents continue to grow the fastest; flat for Class B 44 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Averageaskingrents($p.s.f.) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 46. Since Q1 2010, CBD Class A rents have grown by more than one-fifth; Suburban Class B barely increased in nominal terms 45 -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GrowthinaskingrentssinceQ12010 Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research +22.7% CBD Class A +12.8% Suburban Class C +14.5% CBD Class C +8.1% Suburban Class A +7.7% CBD Class B +1.7% Suburban Class B
  • 47. CBD and suburban rents both rose in Q2 2015, but the gap widened even more to $16.43 p.s.f. (+66.3 percent) 46 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Averageaskingrent($p.s.f) CBD Suburbs Source: JLL Research $11.36 $16.43
  • 48. The Class A premium held firm in Q2 due to limited supply and higher-priced new construction pushing up rents 47 $3.40 $3.49 $3.49 $3.53 $3.68 $3.81 $3.97 $3.99 $4.21 $4.26 $4.37 $4.38 $4.86 $4.71 $4.82 $4.76 $4.97 $4.92 $4.90 $4.81 $5.13 $5.12 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ClassApremium($p.s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 49. TI allowances are beginning to elevate due to new construction providing higher concessions, but free months are declining 48 3.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 6.2 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.4 $23.00 $24.00 $25.00 $26.00 $27.00 $28.00 $29.00 $30.00 $31.00 $32.00 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TIallowance($p.s.f.) Freemonthsofrent Free months of rent TI allowance ($ p.s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 51. 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Underconstruction(s.f.) 50 Source: JLL Research Construction volumes up 8.4 percent since year-end 2014 to 86.2 m.s.f. in Q2 2015
  • 52. Market Under construction (s.f.) Share Houston 11,114,260 12.9% New York 9,487,363 11.0% Dallas 8,508,652 9.9% Seattle-Bellevue 7,030,599 8.1% Washington, DC 5,227,655 6.1% Silicon Valley 5,043,620 5.8% Boston 4,522,701 5.2% Phoenix 3,411,901 4.0% San Francisco 3,134,205 3.6% Denver 3,120,372 3.6% Chicago 3,055,164 3.5% Philadelphia 2,967,329 3.4% Austin 2,913,140 3.4% Los Angeles 1,951,171 2.3% All other markets 14,779,400 17.1% United States 86,267,532 100.0% Houston New York Dallas Seattle-Bellevue Washington, DC Silicon Valley Boston Phoenix San Francisco Denver Chicago Philadelphia Austin Los Angeles All other markets 51 Source: JLL Research Houston’s share of development activity has fallen due to completions and slowing demand; rising elsewhere
  • 53. 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Completions(s.f.) 52 15.6 m.s.f. Source: JLL Research Average completions: 46.0 m.s.f. YTD 2015 completions already total 62.1 percent of YTD 2014; still well below historical norms
  • 54. 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Completions(s.f.) Speculative BTS 53 Source: JLL Research Roughly half of all development will deliver in 2016; remainder will mostly deliver throughout the rest of 2015 and 2017
  • 55. 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 50,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Completions(s.f.) Available Preleased 54 Source: JLL Research Due to high levels of preleasing, only 43.4 m.s.f. of construction will be available upon delivery in 2015 and 2016
  • 56. 7,322,061 11,407,786 13,060,032 4,781,395 11,818,372 9,168,187 9,855,374 12,720,560 12,810,553 9,748,464 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2013 2014 2015 Starts(s.f.) 55 Source: JLL Research Construction starts slowed somewhat in Q2, but are 6.3 percent higher than this time last year
  • 57. Market Starts (s.f.) Share New York 2,300,000 23.6% Dallas 1,240,824 12.7% Charlotte 978,309 10.0% Denver 904,767 9.3% San Francisco Peninsula 775,614 8.0% Chicago 763,000 7.8% Cincinnati 485,000 5.0% Seattle 473,937 4.9% Washington, DC 439,394 4.5% Miami 315,000 3.2% San Diego 297,441 3.1% Portland 244,444 2.5% New Jersey 185,000 1.9% Fort Lauderdale 143,535 1.5% Phoenix 125,000 1.3% Silicon Valley 77,199 0.8% United States 9,748,464 100.0% New York Dallas Charlotte Denver San Francisco Peninsula Chicago Cincinnati Seattle Washington, DC Miami San Diego Portland New Jersey Fort Lauderdale Phoenix Silicon Valley 56 Source: JLL Research The office component of Brookfield’s Manhattan West project made New York the leader in starts in Q2
  • 58. Market Starts (s.f.) Share Trammell Crow 3,631,840 4.2% Hines 3,539,334 4.1% KDC 3,015,000 3.5% Silverstein 2,861,402 3.3% Brookfield 2,554,500 3.0% Boston Properties 2,220,081 2.6% Related 1,700,000 2.0% Liberty 1,462,000 1.7% Schnitzer West 1,391,000 1.6% Lincoln 1,334,115 1.5% O'Donnell 1,229,064 1.4% Crescent 1,130,000 1.3% Touchstone 1,098,044 1.3% Tishman Speyer 1,025,248 1.2% All other markets 58,828,904 67.3% United States 86,267,532 100.0% Trammell Crow Hines KDC Silverstein Brookfield Boston Properties Related Liberty Schnitzer West Lincoln O'Donnell Crescent Touchstone Tishman Speyer All other markets 57 Source: JLL Research Trammell Crow, Hines, KDC and Silverstein are building 15.1 percent of development underway
  • 59. 58 47.8% All properties 29.8% Spec only Source: JLL Research Although slightly under half of all U/C space is preleased, this figure falls sharply looking only at speculative development
  • 60. 19.6% 22.9% 27.5% 35.2% 39.6% 46.6% 48.1% 50.6% 52.5% 55.6% 65.4% 66.6% 69.3% 74.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Los Angeles Denver New York Austin Seattle-Bellevue Silicon Valley Houston Boston Washington, DC San Francisco Dallas Chicago Philadelphia Phoenix Preleasing rate (%) 59 Source: JLL Research BTS-heavy markets such as Phoenix, Philadelphia and Dallas are posting the highest preleasing rates nationally
  • 61. 60 609 Main at Texas (Hines) Houston 1,057,668 s.f. 390 Madison Avenue (L&L) New York 858,710 s.f. One SoHo Square (Rockpoint) New York 768,000 s.f. 6 Houston Center (Crescent) Houston 600,000 s.f. Source: JLL Research Energy Center V (Trammell Crow) Houston 505,000 s.f. 1775 Tysons Boulevard (Lerner) Northern Virginia 476,913 s.f. 929 Office Tower (Trammell Crow) Bellevue 462,000 s.f. Three Alliance (Tishman Speyer) Atlanta 500,000 s.f. As confidence builds, speculative developments without any preleasing are rising
  • 62. $51.66 $45.15 $36.38 $24.95 $23.52 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 Trophy U/C Class A U/C Class A Class B Class C Directaverageaskingrent($p.s.f.) 61 Source: JLL Research With rents approaching $52 per square foot for Trophy space, new construction commands a very large premium
  • 63. $75.00 $75.50 $76.00 $80.00 $80.00 $80.00 $85.00 $85.00 $85.00 $90.00 $95.00 $110.00 $159.00 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 100 Northern Avenue (Boston) 222 2nd Street (San Francisco) 2001 M Street NW (Washington, DC) 600 Massachusetts Avenue NW (Washington, DC) 333 Brannan Street (San Francisco) 345 Brannan Street (San Francisco) 350 Bush Street (San Francisco) Pickwick Plaza (Fairfield County) 1000 F Street NW (Washington, DC) 1450 Page Mill Road (Silicon Valley) 181 Fremont Street (San Francisco) Salesforce Tower (San Francisco) 135 Hamilton Avenue (Silicon Valley) 62 Source: JLL Research – data for many high-profile properties, such as 3 World Trade Center and 10 Hudson Yards in New York, is not available Speaking to demand and the need for new, quality space, multiple buildings in the Bay Area and DC are asking more than $80 p.s.f.
  • 64. Sales
  • 65. With $39.2 billion of office transactions in second quarter, nearly 60 percent of full-year 2014 deal flow closed in first half 2015 64 $0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Officeinvestmentsalevolumes($billions) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: JLL Research
  • 66. Strong deals in Boston, NY and growing pipeline in others driving primary market growth of 55.3 percent first half 2015 Y-o-Y 65 18 6 5 6 8 26 4 11 17 17 7 1 5 8 4 5 19 19 2 9 7 12 6 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Boston New York San Francisco Seattle-Bellevue Chicago Los Angeles Washington, DC Houston Numberofofficeinvestmentsales Source: JLL Research
  • 67. ..with four of eight primary markets exceeded $1.0 billion 66 Atlanta second quarter deal flow more than doubled over first quarter $6,137 $2,284 $1,942 $1,388 $1,179 $841 $676 $667 $656 $568 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 Toptenmarketvolumes($millions) Primary markets Secondary markets Source: JLL Research
  • 68. From broader perspective, primary markets are up 55.3 percent YTD compared to 2014 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Primarymarketinvestmentvolumes($millions) First Half 2014 First Half 2015 67 San Francisco and LA are currently behind first half of 2014 Source: JLL Research
  • 69. As East Coast CBD investment increases, Boston and West Coast investment strategies diversifying further into the Suburbs 68 100% 81% 60% 66% 65% 50% 55% 25% 100% 99% 69% 90% 47% 66% 55% 13% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% New York Chicago Houston Washington, DC Boston Seattle-Bellevue San Francisco Los Angeles CBDinvestmentsales(asa%oftotalvolumes) 2014 First Half 2015 Source: JLL Research Westside Palo Alto / Santa Clara Lake Union / Belltown Cambridge / 495 Mass Pike
  • 70. 14.1% 62.2% 23.7% Trophy Class A Class B Resurgence in Trophy activity with one-third of comparable full- year 2014 sales in second quarter 69 19.3% 55.8% 24.9% Trophy Class A Class B Source: JLL Research 2014 YTD 2015
  • 71. $1,054 $841 $417 $331 $253 Atlanta Northern and Central NJ San Diego Phoenix Northern Virginia $6,137 $1,926 $1,049 $1,031 $667 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 Primary markets dominating CBD investment activity; non-CBD volumes led by secondary markets 70 Most active CBD markets Most active Non-CBD markets Of CBD volumes in Primary markets Of Non-CBD volumes in Secondary markets Source: JLL Research Q1officeinvestmentsalevolume(millionsof$US)
  • 72. 56.7% 43.3% Primary markets Secondary markets Secondary market activity continues to rise on a square footage basis, accounting for 56.0 percent of 2015 activity year-to-date 71 Source: JLL Research 47.1% 52.9% Primary markets Secondary markets 43.9% 56.0% Primary markets Secondary markets
  • 73. And more than 45.0 million square feet of non-CBD deal flow drove secondary market volumes in the second quarter 72 44% 40% 50% 57% 43% 69% 52% 45% 56% 51% 27% 28% 27% 24% 27% 15% 17% 24% 16% 15% 13% 17% 10% 7% 14% 9% 10% 14% 8% 11%16% 15% 13% 13% 17% 7% 21% 17% 21% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 Primary CBD Primary Non-CBD Secondary CBD Secondary Non-CBD Source: JLL Research
  • 74. Moreover, secondary markets grew 19.6 percent in Q2 outpacing Primary market growth $4.6 $5.6 $6.3 $7.4 $5.8 $3.7 $5.8 $6.6 $6.2 $7.4 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 Secondarymarketvolume($billions) 73 Source: JLL Research
  • 75. Only Phoenix was top five secondary market to fall short of first quarter volume $451 $28 $133 $227 $639 $1,179 $841 $676 $461 $435 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 Atlanta Northern and Central NJ Philadelphia San Diego Phoenix Top5secondarymarket($millions) Mesirow Realty purchase of Verizon Center Source: JLL Research 74
  • 76. Secondary market class A, B and Trophy volumes are at 62 percent of 2014 volumes year-to-date $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 Secondarymarketbuildingclassvolumes($millions) 75 Class A office $150 M from peak levels Source: JLL Research
  • 77. Foreign investment up 57.1 percent year-to-date, China has surpassed high water mark in 2007 76 Norway 33% Germany 22% Canada 21% South Korea 14% United Kingdom 5% All else 5% China, 35% Canada, 27% Germany, 10% Norway, 6% South Korea, 5% All else, 15% 2015 YTD2014Source: JLL Research Percentageofforeigninvestmentbycountry
  • 78. New York, 70% Washington, DC, 14% Seattle- Bellevue, 8% San Francisco, 3% All else, 5% 2015 YTD 77 New York, 47% Washington, DC, 21% Northern Virginia, 6% Seattle- Bellevue, 5% Houston, 5% All else, 16% 2014Source: JLL Research Percentageofinvestmentintomarketsbyforeigncountries Foreign appetite for quality assets in New York remains high and growing
  • 80. 79 Source: JLL Research 2015 outlook strongest in nearly a decade Nearly half of all tenants leasing space over the past four quarters are growing, dominated by scientific and technical industries (most predominantly tech and telecom). This should accelerate over the next 12-18 months as economic stability encourages business growth. Occupancy gains were more diversely spread across markets with DC and New York making significant comebacks from the first quarter while Los Angeles, Atlanta and Dallas continued to heat up. This geographic and industry diversity will continue to boost absorption in coming quarters with the notable exception of Houston, where fallout from the oil and energy will further slow growth and potentially lead to occupancy losses later in the year. As expansionary leases begin to commence ahead of new supply, we expect to see vacancy fall below 15 percent by year-end. Over the next two years, however, that rate will creep back upward as markets steady themselves for the largest pipeline of new supply in nearly a decade—currently at 86 million square feet. If market momentum continues, as we expect it will, rents could see additional increases that reach a cumulative 5-7 percent annual growth rate by year-end. 1. 2. 3. 4.
  • 81. By all accounts, economic and corporate confidence are stable and growing. This will only further translate into office market expansion and value appreciation as supply and demand become unbalanced in landlords’ favor over the next two to four quarters. Occupiers will be hard-pressed in negotiations in the near-term, but rent growth and leverage should begin to decelerate toward the end of 2016 as the majority of the development pipeline will be complete.
  • 82. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015 Julia Georgules Director – Office Research +1 415 354 6908 Julia.Georgules@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research +1 202 719 6295 Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Sean Coghlan Director – Capital Markets Research +1 215 988 5556 Sean.Coghlan@am.jll.com Seth Kazarian Research Analyst – Capital Markets +1 312 228 3478 Seth.Kazarian@am.jll.com >> Click to learn more, and see market-by-market data