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Consumers in a
Post-Recession
World:
A Nielsen Report

September 2009
How has the deepest global recession since the Great Depression of the
20th Century affected consumers globally?

Global banks have returned to profit, restoring confidence in a new financial structure. Stimulus
plans put into action by governments are starting to take effect and the IMF has revised a more
positive forecast for economic growth and recovery in the next year. But how has the deepest global
recession since the Great Depression affected consumers globally? In this report, Nielsen uncovers
how consumers in different regions will embrace the post-recession world and how recessionary
habits may prove harder to break for consumers in the US and Europe – compared to consumers
in BRIC markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and Asia - who are preparing to spend their way into
prosperous times again.




                                                                                                      2
Consumers in a Post Recession
World

Hopes for a full economic recovery accelerated in 26 out of 28
major global markets in the 2nd Quarter of 2009 according
to the latest Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index
conducted in late June 2009. Driven by renewed consumer
optimism and stock market gains in BRIC and key Asian
markets, the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index
rose five Index points to 82 from 77. In addition, the number
of consumers and countries who believe their economy is
currently in recession declined six Index points in the last three
months, with the most positive feelings of recovery emanating
from the BRIC and Asian markets. In the last few months,
consumers and market sentiment has switched from recession
to recovery – signaling a major turning point for the Global
Financial Crisis.




3
Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months?
June 2009




                                                                                                             0% to 15%
                                                                                                            15% to 30%            Global Average: 26%
                                                                                                            30% to 45%
                                                                                                            45% to 60%

              Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009: 14,029 respondents in Europe, Asia Paci c, Middle East and North America




Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index 2nd quarter, 2009
        113

               112
      104




                      103
              99

                     96


                             96




                                                                                                                                                            March             June
                                   95

                                         94

                                               93
                                  92




                                                      90
                                                     90
                                                     89
                                        89

                                              89
                            88




                                                               87

                                                                     87

                                                                           86

                                                                                 85
                                                    84




                                                                                             82




                                                                                                                                                                                     82
                                                                                       82
                                                                    81



                                                                                82




                                                                                                    81
                                                                          81
                                                              80




                                                                                                   80
                                                                                                   80

                                                                                                             79

                                                                                                                   78
                                                                                            78




                                                                                                                                                                                77
                                                                                                                         77
                                                                                                  76
                                                                                      75




                                                                                                                               73
                                                                                                                               73
                                                                                                                  72




                                                                                                                              72

                                                                                                                                           72

                                                                                                                                                 71
                                                                                                            70



                                                                                                                        70




                                                                                                                                                       67
                                                                                                                                      65

                                                                                                                                                63

                                                                                                                                                      60


                                                                                                                                                             60
                                                                                                                                                            60


                                                                                                                                                                    51
                                                                                                                                                                  42


                                                                                                                                                                          40
                                                                                                                                                                         31
                                                                                                                                                                     JP
                                                           PL
                                             AE




                                                                                                                                                                      al
                                                                                                                       DE




                                                                                                                                                           FR
                                                                                                 ZA



                                                                                                                 ES

                                                                                                                       UA
                                                                                           AR
                          AU




                                                            Y
                                             CA
      ID




                                                                                                                                     TR
                          BR




                                                                                                                        IT
                                                                                                       US
            PH




                                                          RU




                                                                                                                                    GB
                                                          SG


                                                          TH




                                                                                                        HK
                                                         NZ




                                                                                                                                    TW




                                                                                                                                                                    KO
            IN




                                       CN




                                                          M




                                                                                                                                                                   ob
                                                                                                                                                                Gl




       Base : All respondents n= 17107
       Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009: 14,029 respondents in Europe, Asia Paci c, Middle East and North America




                                                                                                                                                                                          4
Cautious Consumers
And while talk of a global recession may be receding, many                                            Many consumers who cut back on new clothes, out-of-home
consumers plan to hold on to their thrifty recessionary habits,                                       entertainment and take-away meals and switched to cheaper
according to a Nielsen study on consumers in the post-                                                grocery brands to make ends meet plan to stick to these new
recession world.                                                                                      habits even when economic conditions improve, according
                                                                                                      to a recent Nielsen survey of 52 global markets. Even
The severity of this recession has brought about a change
                                                                                                      though consumer confidence is returning in most countries,
in consumer values, spending habits and lifestyle choices in
                                                                                                      the tactics and cutbacks that consumers adopted for the
many parts of the world, with some indication that consumers
                                                                                                      recession may be here to stay for many Europeans, Pacific and
in the West will continue to refrain from excessive or
                                                                                                      American consumers. Forty eight percent of Americans say
unnecessary spending across all aspects of their lifestyles - at
                                                                                                      they will continue to save on gas/electricity bills, 22 percent
least in the short term.
                                                                                                      of Australians will continue to cut down on take-away meals
                                                                                                      and 23 percent of French say they will continue to use their
                                                                                                      car less.




    Perceptions of now being a good or bad time for people to buy the things they want and need

           100




            80




            60
                                                                                       55

                                 49                           48                                                                                                              47
                                                                                                                                                   45
                                                                                                                    40
            40                                                                                               38


                           29                                                                                                                                            29
                                                        27                                                                                    28
                                                                                  23
                                                                   21                                                                                   20
                                                                                            20                           19                                                        19
            20                        17



                       3                                                                                                                  4                        3
                                                    2                        2                           2
             0
                            AP                           EU                       MEAP                         LA                              NA                      Global Average


                 Base : All respondents n = 17107                                                                             Excellent        Good          Not so good           Bad

                 Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Omnibus June 2009: 14,029 respondents in Europe, Asia Paci c, Middle East and North America




5
According to the Nielsen survey, nearly one in three (29%)                                          emerging markets of South Africa, Turkey and Latin America
global consumers will continue to economise on gas and                                              will try to reduce telephone expenses in the post-recession
electricity, while one in six will continue to cut down on take-                                    era. Of all regions, Europeans will still be watching their
away meals. One in six global consumers will continue to                                            expenditure on out-of-home entertainment most closely.
purchase cheaper grocery products, spend less on new clothes,
cut down on out-of-home entertainment and one in seven will                                         Not surprisingly, consumers in the US and Europe -- hardest
reduce telephone expenses.                                                                          hit by the global recession -- are most determined to cling
                                                                                                    to future cost saving measures in the post-recession world.
Saving on gas and electricity, cutting down on take-away                                            Consumers in the BRIC markets, on the other hand, are
meals and spending less on new clothes (and switching to                                            generally looking forward to putting recent recessionary
cheaper groceries) are key global trends today that may stick                                       behaviours behind them and returning to their previous
in the post recession world. On a regional basis, Pacific, North                                    spending patterns, especially Chinese and Russian consumers.
American and Western European consumers will continue to
switch to cheaper grocery products, while consumers in the




   Russian and Chinese consumers are utilizing spare cash to keep up with latest fashion trends
   Top 10 countries who spend spare cash on purchasing new clothes

          100%


           90%


          80%


           70%


          60%
                       53
                                       49
           50%                                          46              45
                                                                                         41
          40%                                                                                            36
                                                                                                                          34              34         34   33

           30%


           20%


           10%


           0%
                      RU               CN               UA              PH               BR              PL               DE              FR         AR   IN

                 Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009: 14,029 respondents in Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and North America




                                                                                                                                                                  6
After covering essential living costs, consumers are putting their spare cash away for the future


                                                                                                                                                      47
                                      Putting into savings                                                                                              48

                                                                                                                                    31
                                     Holidays / vacations
                                                                                                                                         34

                                                                                                                             28
                                             New clothes
                                                                                                                                    31

                                                                                                                                    31
                    Paying off debts / credit cards / loans
                                                                                                                                  30

                                                                                                                   25
                             Out of home entertainment                                                                  27

                                                                                                          21
                               New technology products                                                             25

                                                                                                            22
                       Home improvements / decorating
                                                                                                                   25

                                                                                                   18
               Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds                                                  22

                                                                                         13
                                     I have no spare cash                                13

                                                                                   10
                                         Retirement fund
                                                                                    11

                                                                  2
                                  Don' t know/undecided           2

                                                              0               10                    20                       30                 40       50            60
                                                                                                                  %
               Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey March 2009: 26, 719 respondents in 53 markets globally                                  Mar-09   Jun-09
               And Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009: 14, 029 respondents in Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and North America
    Q: Once youhave covered essential living expenses, which of the following statements best desribes what you do with your spare cash.



In the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey, BRIC and                                               Survey conducted in March 2009, China recorded just a seven
Asian markets scored the greatest increases in Consumer                                                  point drop in consumer confidence in the past six months
Confidence Indices in the past three months. The Confidence                                              compared to double-digit declines in Russia, Brazil and India.
Index climbed 13 points in India and rose eight points in Russia                                         In the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index in late June,
and Brazil.                                                                                              consumer confidence in China increased six Index points.

While the BRIC markets did not escape the ravages of the                                                 Despite the global recession hitting hard in 2008, China still
global recession, the downturn is unlikely to have a marked                                              managed to achieve moderate GDP growth. The Chinese
long-term impact on consumer behaviour. Unlike their                                                     government’s immediate response to the turndown with
Western counterparts, resilient and adaptable BRIC consumers                                             a domestic stimulus package - equal to 13 percent of the
simply tightened their belts temporarily and will soon return                                            country’s GDP - played a significant factor in reassuring the
to their previous spending habits and lifestyle. The experience                                          Chinese that they would not be headed for a protracted
of previous economic crises in Latin America in particular has                                           economic slowdown. According to Nielsen, advertising
produced a very adaptable consumer who had learnt to act                                                 spend in China still grew by 17 percent in 2008, driven by
quickly and make necessary lifestyle cuts during downturns.                                              ad increases in pharmaceutical/health, toiletries, beverages,
Among the BRIC nations and perhaps all nations globally, the                                             business/industry/agriculture and food products. Sales of
Chinese today remain the most confident of an economic                                                   FMCG products remained robust and rose by 21 percent last
rebound in the near future. In the Nielsen Global Confidence                                             year compared to 2007.




7
The World Bank’s revised forecast for China’s economic growth
                                                      rate to 7.2 percent this year from their previous 6.5 percent is
Growth slowed in China but                            a global indication for China’s recovery. After the World Bank
positive signs have emerged                           revision, the Chinese stock hit a 10 month high in mid-June
                                                      fuelled by increasing consumer confidence and optimism.
FMCG consumer sales and media ad spend in
China stalled in the first Quarter, but towards       Urban unemployment remains below five percent and personal
the end of the second Quarter positive signs          investment in the stock market has rebounded in early 2009,
emerged, with many indices bouncing back sharply      with an 18 percent increase compared to the same time last
in May and June. Second tier cities and modern        year, according to the latest Nielsen Personal Finance Monitor
trade outlets in general were most affected with      conducted from December 2008 to February 2009.
consumer confidence low and consumers reigning
in the purse strings. Lower tier cities and rural     Nielsen’s China Travel Monitor (conducted in January, 2009)
areas felt little impact, with some experiencing      also reported that over 50 percent of Chinese respondents
double digit sales growth and high consumer           planned to travel in China domestically in the next 12 months,
                                                      and 16 percent planned to travel overseas. Among domestic
confidence throughout the first half of the
                                                      travellers, nearly four in 10 said the financial crisis had no
year – and since the global economic crisis hit
                                                      impact whatsoever on their travel plans and only four percent
in the fourth Quarter 2008. China experienced
                                                      said they would cancel their travel plans altogether.
volume and value declines in the modern trade for
many FMCG categories, especially food. Falling        Consumer confidence in Russia has also been spurred by recent
commodity prices, retailer stimulated price cuts      stock market gains. Russia’s two main stock exchanges are up
and government food pricing controls, further         over 70 percent in the first half of 2009 – and the stabilization
pressured end-consumer prices. This converges         of the rouble and rally in oil prices significantly increased
on a tight squeeze on value growth for FMCG and       consumer confidence. Nielsen’s Consumer Confidence Index
some other key consumer segments.                     in Russia rose seven points between March and May this year
                                                      – the first increase recorded since the second half of 2007 and
During the second quarter sales growth has started    the highest single increase since the survey started in 2005.
to recover and as this continues and conditions
gradually stabilize globally, MNCs are returning to   While Russians are still well aware of inflation and
their investments in China, despite it being a more   unemployment, they’re starting to see beyond the crisis and
challenging local environment today than it was a     are hoping for a quick return to previous spending patterns
few months ago.                                       with one in six Russians saying they won’t retain any of their
                                                      recessionary habits once the economy improves – and they are
                                                      looking to open their wallets again to spend on their favourite
                                                      pastime – clothes shopping.

                                                      This is a significant turnaround in Russian consumer sentiment
                                                      and as confidence in the economy is restored, consumers’
                                                      desire for branded products and luxury goods will be reignited,
                                                      bolstering Russia’s reputation as a purchasing powerhouse for
                                                      high end consumer products.

                                                      Like Russians, Chinese consumers say they’ll be willing to take
                                                      the time to hunt around for the best price on a bank loan or
                                                      insurance but they not prepared to cut back on their fashion
                                                      spend or out-of-home entertainment in the post-recession era.




                                                                                                                     8
Global Trends
On a global scale, continuing to save on gas and electricity                                                        As economic recovery gathers pace, consumption and
bills has become a lifestyle habit. Among those 69 percent                                                          spending will increase – but the post recession consumer
who have already taken action to reduce these bills since the                                                       is likely to consume very differently. The post-recession
onset of the recession, over 50 percent of Australians, Kiwis,                                                      consumer will think twice and sometimes thrice about making
South Africans, Filipinos, UK, Irish and US consumers say they                                                      purchases, big or small. The recession affected all social
will continue to take further action to reduce household utility                                                    classes and has fundamentally changed how consumers
bills.                                                                                                              consume – and particularly in the West where it’s now
                                                                                                                    fashionable to be frugal; and trendy to be thrifty.




    Consumers cost-cutting actions in June were more dramatic than they anticipated in March
    Global Average

                                                                                                                                                                                         50
                      Try to save on gas and electricity                                                                                                          40

                                                                                                                                                                                                  55
                             Spend less on new clothes                                                                   22

                                                                                                                                                                                                54
              Cut down on out-of-home entertainment                                                                20

                                                                                                                                                                               46
                         Cut down on take-away meals                                                                          24
                                                                                                                                                                       43
                      Switch to cheaper grocery brands                                                                  21

                                                                                                                                                   34
                      Cut down on telephone expenses                                                                    21

                                                                                                                                                            38
        Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile, etc                                        14

                                                                                                                                                          37
                   Cut down on holidays / short breaks                               11

                                                                                                                                      28
                                  Use my car less often                                                  17

                              Delay the replacement of                                                                                             34
                                major household items                               10
                   Look for better deals on home loans,                                                                      23
                             insurance, credit cards, etc                                           15
                                                                                                                              24
                                Cut out annual vacation                 7

                                                                                                                         22
                  Cut down on at-home entertainment                         8

                                                                                                              18
         Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol                       8

                                                                                           13
                                  Cut down on smoking                           9
                                                                                          12
             I have taken other actions not listed above                                             16

                                                            0               10                                20                      30                     40                     50                      60
                                                                                                                                  %
                    Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey March and June 2009
                                                                                                                                           Actions taken in June 09         Actions predicted in March 09
                    Base : All Respondents those who said yes at Q10 (code 1) n=9947




9
In the US, Australia and many Western European nations, sales
Organic Living                                                                                                           of bottled water have been in decline for the past two years.
                                                                                                                         Under current circumstances in the West, it’s unlikely that
This new mind-set has been directly impacted by consumers’
                                                                                                                         bottled water will rebound to its previously high-growth levels
growing concerns about the world we live in, and the world
                                                                                                                         of five years ago.
that will exist for future generations.
                                                                                                                         In the USA, sales growth of organic products nosedived as the
Consumers, especially in the West, are realizing that
                                                                                                                         economy worsened. For the 4-week period ending in mid-
sustainability, recycling, organic food, bottled water, waste
                                                                                                                         May 2009, dollar sales of UPC-coded products with an organic
and the global environment as a whole are all related to the
                                                                                                                         label claim grew by just two percent compared to 24 percent
actions they choose to take today.
                                                                                                                         in the previous year. Between 2005 and 2006, many organic
Organic food and bottled water may prove to be among the                                                                 products posted growth rates of 30 percent according to
first victims of the recession as the new consumer mind-set                                                              Nielsen. Manufacturers and producers of organic products are
gathers momentum. At the onset of the recession, consumers                                                               being challenged to prove that their product is truly “better
cut back on spending on organic products and bottled water                                                               for you, and better for the planet”. Consumers need good
for economic reasons. Having done without them for several                                                               economic – and now, scientifically or medically proven --
months or over a year, consumers may question if they really                                                             reasons to justify paying extra for organic products, especially
need these products in their lives again, especially with an                                                             as it’s becoming known that carbon emissions are often lower
ongoing controversial debate on the real “goodness” of organic                                                           from the non-organic alternative.
products and the recycling and waste issues created by plastic,
                                                                                                                         For US consumers, the top recessionary habits households
bottled water.
                                                                                                                         have made part of their lifestyle are saving on gas/electricity




   USA: The economy takes it toll on organics
        +35%



        +30%



        +25%



        +20%



        +15%
                                            Monthly sales growth of organics
        +10%                                 below 4% in last five periods

         +5%



         +0%
                                                                                                                                                                                 8
                                   6




                                                                                                                                                  08
                    6




                                                                                                                                                                  8
                                                 6




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        09
                                                                                                                     07




                                                                                                                                                                                                             9
                                                                                        07
                                                              06




                                                                                                          7




                                                                                                                                   07




                                                                                                                                                                                             08
                                                                            07




                                                                                                                                                                              /0
                                  0
                 /0




                                                                                                                                                                /0
                                               0




                                                                                                        0




                                                                                                                                                                                                          /0
                               0/




                                                                                                                                                  2/
                                                                                                                    6/
                                                                                       1/
                                            2/




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                                                                                                     4/




                                                                                                                                  9/
                                                                        7/
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                                                                                                                                                                              06
                 25




                                                                                                                                                                14




                                                                                                                                                                                                          21
                                                                                       /2




                                                                                                                                                /2
                              /2




                                            /1




                                                                                                                    /0
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                                                                                     04
                                           08




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                                                                                                                                            03




                                                                                                                                                                          09




                                                                                                                                                                                                      02
             02




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     05
                            05




                                                                                                 07
                                                                       01




                                                                                                                  10



                                                                                                                              12
                                                         11




                                                                                                                                                                                        11
            /E




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        W




                        W




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                                                                                                              W



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                 W
        4




                      4




                                   4




                                                 4




                                                               4




                                                                             4




                                                                                            4




                                                                                                          4



                                                                                                                         4




                                                                                                                                       4




                                                                                                                                                       4




                                                                                                                                                                     4




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                                                                                                                                                                                                 4




                                                                                                                                                                                                               4




                                                                                                                                                                                                  UPC-Coded Organics
        Source: Scantrack & LabelTrends, services of The Nielsen Company; (FDM ex-Walmart) % Change in 4-Week Dollar Sales vs. YAGO




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10
(48%), cutting down on take-away meals (28%) and                                                 The winners in the take-away meal sector have been those
continuing to switch to cheaper grocery products (28%).                                          companies that have changed their offering to become family-
But while they’ll cut back in these areas, other parts of their                                  friendly eateries with an accent on value and healthy food
lifestyle will see some rebound. Over 40 percent of US                                           options. Designer-look and family-friendly McCafes from
consumers said they’ll be spending on travel and holidays,                                       McDonalds in Europe have been extremely popular during the
dining out and out-of-home entertainment according to                                            downturn as families have embraced a low-cost family eating
recent survey of 10,000 Nielsen HomescanTM households in                                         option in a modern, family-friendly environment.
the USA, a clear indication that while consumers are preparing
to loosen their purse-strings in coming months, restraint will
be key.
                                                                                                     The only two Dow Jones
In many ways, the recession served to accelerate and intensify
                                                                                                     companies to grow in 2008 were
many of the trends that were emerging before the economic
downturn. There has been a decreasing trend for take-away                                            Walmart and McDonalds. And
meals, mainly due to growing health and wellness trends,                                             recently Starbucks announced
but the cost of take-away meals in developed markets has
accelerated this considerably. Among those saying “no” to
                                                                                                     plans to lower prices on basic
take-away meals are Australians, New Zealanders, Japanese,                                           offerings, but raise prices on
Irish, South Africans, Brazilians and USA consumers.                                                 others. Segmentation is the key
                                                                                                     to success in this environment.



     Consumers cut down on out-of-home entertainment significantly more than they predicted
             100


             90


             80


             70
                           66                          65

                                                                                 60                   61
             60
                                                                                                                                                               54

         %   50
                                                                                                                                    45

             40


             30                      26

                                                                19                          19                                                19                       20
             20                                                                                                 16


              10


              0
                                NA                       MEAP                          EU                  LA                            AP                  Global Average

                   Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey March and June 2009
                                                                                                                     Actions taken in June 09      Actions predicted in March 09
                   Base : All Respondents those who said yes at Q10 (code 1) n=9947




11
Staying in will continue to be the new ‘going out’, especially            Brands, as consumers experience the range and quality on
for around one in five Turkish and US consumers. As                       offer. In these markets, and for these ‘newly trialled’ Retail
consumers decreased their out-of-home entertainment                       Brand categories, consumers may not see reason to switch
budgets there has been a welcome return to traditional social             back again. In previous downturns, consumers switched to
values with an emphasis on family and friends.                            cheaper products faster and it took a while for them to switch
                                                                          back to branded products. In this environment, leading brand
Some FMCG manufacturers have been quick to capitalize on                  manufacturers need to focus on regaining customer loyalty
consumers’ need for reassurance and security in these days,               and ensuring growth of their brand equity.
with the return of retro-style ads evoking carefree, secure
times of childhood. Even when economic conditions improve,                A key driver of Retail Brand growth is the amount of
more consumers globally say they will continue to cut back                innovation and commitment that Retailers are putting
on out-of-home entertainment while only six percent will cut              behind them, and the range of products available. FMCG
back on at-home entertainment.                                            manufacturers have also responded to consumers’ changing
                                                                          needs for extra-value, introducing products focusing on
Many Europeans, Americans and Pacific consumers said they                 convenience, functionality and innovation. For the average
will continue to switch to cheaper priced grocery products                shopper, there’s never been such a range of choice in terms of
– another trend which accelerated during the recession in                 products and price as there is now. Similarly, with shopping
certain markets and grocery categories -- and looks set to                habits largely defined by the retail landscape, there has been
continue in the post-recession world. Around one in three Kiwi            greater acceptance and popularity for shoppers to frequent
and US consumers, along with over 20 percent of German,                   the predominantly Retail Brand supermarkets of Aldi and Lidl.
French, UK, Australians, Malaysians and Singaporeans say they             In Europe 1500 Aldi and Lidl stores opened between 2006 and
will continue to switch to cheaper grocery brands even when               2008 and their expansion continues.
economic conditions improve.

When it comes to grocery shopping, what people say and
what they do isn’t necessarily the same thing. It is true to
say that Retail Brands have benefited from the ‘credit crunch’
brought about by the recession. Countries such as the UK,
Switzerland and
Germany had highly
                                Retail Brand share in Europe:
developed Retail Brand
                                8 years, 7 countries and 1944 categories
propositions prior to
                                                                                                                                37.9%
the recession, where                                                                                36.7%
                                                                                                                37.2%

the growth of Retail                                                                    35.6%
                                                                    34.7%
Brands had more to do
                                                             33.3%
with the consolidation                         32.1%
                                    31.3%
of retail ownership. This
gave more Head Office
                                                                                                                               31.4%
buyers the critical                                                                                 30.1%       30.6%
mass required in their                                                                 29.3%
                                                                    28.7%
                                                             28.0%
categories to make a               27.0%       27.4%
Retail Brand financially
viable.

The recession may well
                                     2001                   2002   2003     2004        2005         2006        2007           2008
have stimulated a lot
more trial – and then         Source: The Nielsen Company                                                       Value Share   Volume Share


conversion – to Retail




                                                                                                                                             12
Retail Brands and retailer concentration
                                         50%
                                                                                                                                                                          CH

                                         45%


                                                                                                                            UK
                                         40%



                                         35%

                                                                                                                           Ger
          Value share of Retail Brands




                                                                                                                                           Bel
                                         30%                                                                                                     Aut
                                                                                                                                     Can
                                                                                                                     Fra
                                         25%
                                                                                                     Por         Ned Spa                                      Den Swe
                                                                                                      Slo
                                         20%                                         USA                                                                            NZ
                                                                                             Cze                                                        Nor   Fin

                                                                                   Ita Hun                                                             Aus
                                         15%
                                                           Pol                               Gre


                                         10%                     Tur


                                         5%        Rus


                                         0%
                                           10%                20%            30%               40%         50%               60%           70%         80%          90%        100%

                                                                                                            Retailer Concentration
                                               Source: The Nielsen Company




13
Switzerland




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            46%
                                     Argentina




                                                                                        8%
                                                                                                                                                                                   UK




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          44%
                                         Chile




                                                                                   7%
                                                                                                                                                                             Germany




                                                                             32%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    32%
                                                                                                                                                                                Spain




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              29%
                                     Columbia




     Source: The Nielsen Company
                                                                                                                                            Source: The Nielsen Company




                                                                            6%
                                                                                                                                                                              Belgium




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         28%
                                       Mexico                                                                                                                                  Austria




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        27%




                                                                       5%
                                                                                                                                                                              Canada




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       26%
                                         Brazil




                                                                       5%
                                                                                                                                                                               France



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       26%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Retail Brand value share in Europe




                                                                                                                                                                          Netherlands

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 24%
                                    Venezuela




                                                       2%
                                                                                                                                                                              Portugal                                     22%

                                    Hong Kong




                                                                       5%
                                                                                                                                                                              Slovakia




                                                                 22%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           22%




                                                                                             Retail Brand value share - a global snapshot
                                                                                                                                                                              Sweden
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       21%




                                     Singapore




                                                            3%
                                                                                                                                                                             Denmark
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       21%




                                      Malaysia                                                                                                                                 Finland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     19%




                                                       2%
                                                                                                                                                                          New Zealand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                18%




                                   South Korea




                                                       2%
                                                                                                                                                                           Czech Rep.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                18%




                                                                                                                                                                                 USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                               17%




                                       Taiwan




                                                       2%
                                                                                                                                                                             Hungary
                                                                                                                                                                                                               17%




                                      Thailand
                                                                                                                                                                              Norway




                                                  1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               17%




                                                                                                                                                                                 Italy
                                     Indonesia




                                                  1%
                                                                                                                                                                             Australia
                                                                                                                                                                                                     14% 14%




                                        China                                                                                                                                  Poland
                                                                                                                                                                                               12%




                                                  1%
                                                                                                                                                                               Greece
                                                                                                                                                                                              11%




                                   Phillippines




                                                  1%
                                                                                                                                                                               Turkey
                                                                                                                                                                                         8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Average




14
In the Nielsen Global Online survey, fifteen percent of global
consumers said they will spend less on new clothes even when
the economy recovers, compared to 37 percent who have
cut back on clothes spending during the recession. While the
Chinese, Russians, UAE and Indians will be among the first
to update their wardrobes in the post-recession world, those
pledging to spend considerably less on fashion are Singaporeans,
Malaysians, Italians, Turkish, Brazilians and Australians.




The Challenge for Marketers in the
Post-Recession World
Major international FMCG and fashion manufacturers face the
same dilemma in the post-recession world – how to convince
consumers to switch back to their ‘old’ brands or try new
brands when they have experienced and been satisfied with
the quality of a lower-priced option they’ve switched to during
the recession. This question has played on manufacturers’
minds throughout the recession resulting in an increased focus
on product innovation. Nielsen BASES information indicates
that over 50 percent of tested products have succeeded with
consumers and among forty new products that Nielsen tracked
in the USA last year; none were adversely affected by the
recession. The economic downturn sowed some ripe seeds for
product innovation – marketers know they’re going to need
a particularly innovative product that hits all the right spots
with consumers to pry them away from their usual brand.
Success in the post-recession era is based on achieving the right
combination of value, product innovation and competitive
differentiation.

In addition to product innovation, manufacturers now
have to consider the impact of brand values and corporate
responsibility on sales. Brand values used to be the domain
of the marketer but these days, it has become a purchasing
factor. The post-recession consumer has reassessed their
lifestyle and has become a more socially aware and ethically-
minded buyer. They expect the same values to resonate in the
brands they buy and companies they buy from. The successful,
post-recession FMCG company will have to be ethically and
socially accountable in the way their products are sourced and
manufactured, environmentally aware and good corporate
citizens in every way.




15
Consumer in the Philippines and China are dedicated to spending on new technology
  How consumers use spare cash after covering essential living costs - Top #10 spending on new technology
  products
     100%


      90%


      80%


      70%


      60%


      50%
                  45
                                  43
                                                  40
      40%
                                                                   34        34
                                                                                  32
      30%                                                                              28   27   27         26

      20%


      10%


       0%
                 PH              CN               BR              ID         RU   IN   TR   IT   UA         DE

            Base : Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009
            All respondents n = 14029




There’s some bright news for manufacturers
of household and white goods in the post
recession era – consumers who have delayed
purchases of some essential household goods
for the past two years are looking to finally
replace them. Replacing white goods is one of
the few areas where Europeans aren’t willing to
cut back on any more in an improved economy
– although they’ll still hunt for the best value.

In Asia, tech savvy consumers in Japan and
Korea aren’t prepared to wait much longer to
upgrade their current PC and mobile models.
In contrast, ten percent of Chinese said
they’re willing to continue to delay their tech
purchases. Korea aren’t prepared to wait much
longer to upgrade their current PC and mobile
models. In contrast, ten percent of Chinese
said they’re willing to continue to delay their
tech purchases.




                                                                                                                 16
Country Abbreviations
     AE    United Arab Emirates          IT       Italy
     AR    Argentina                     JP       Japan
     AT    Austria                       KO       South Korea
     AU    Australia                     LT       Lithuania
     BE    Belgium                       LV       Latvia
     BR    Brazil                        MX       Mexico
     CA    Canada                        MY       Malaysia
     CH    Switzerland                   NL       Netherlands
     CL    Chile                         NO       Norway
     CN    China                         NZ       New Zealand
     CO    Colombia                      PH       Philippines
     CZ    Czech Republic                PK       Pakistan
     DE    Germany                       PL       Poland
     DK    Denmark                       PT       Portugal
     EE    Estonia                       RO       Romania
     EG    Egypt                         RU       Russia
     ES    Spain                         SA       Saudi Arabia
     FI    Finland                       SE       Sweden
     FR    France                        SG       Singapore
     GB    United Kingdom                TH       Thailand
     GR    Greece                        TR       Turkey
     HK    Hong Kong                     TW       Taiwan
     HU    Hungary                       US       United States
     ID    Indonesia                     VE       Venezuela
     IE    Ireland                       VN       Vietnam
     IL    Israel                        ZA       South Africa
     IN    India

Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey
Nielsen’s Quarterly GlobalOnlineConsumer Survey polled 26, 719 consumers in 53 markets in Europe, Asia Pacific, North
  The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey
America and the Middle East from March 19 to April 2, 2009 and polled 14, 029 respondents in 28 markets in Europe, Asia
  A twice-yearly online study, the Nielsen Online Global Consumer Confidence survey polled 26, 719 consumers in 53 markets in
Pacific, Middle East and North America from June 15 to June 29, 2009 about their confidence levels and economic outlook.
The Nielsen ConsumerNorth America and the Middle East from consumers’ confidence in the jobtheir confidenceof theirand economic
  Europe, Asia Pacific, Confidence Index is developed based on March 19 to April 2, 2009 about market, status levels
  outlook. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumers’ confidence in the job market, status of their
personal finances and readiness to spend.
  personal finances and readiness to spend.
The Nielsen Company
  The Nielsen Company
The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer
   The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer
information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business
publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held companymeasurement, trade shows and business
   information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile is active in more than 100 counties,
with headquarters in New The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with
   publications (Billboard, York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com
   headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com




     11




17

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Nielsen Consumer Post Recession Report Sept09

  • 1. Consumers in a Post-Recession World: A Nielsen Report September 2009
  • 2. How has the deepest global recession since the Great Depression of the 20th Century affected consumers globally? Global banks have returned to profit, restoring confidence in a new financial structure. Stimulus plans put into action by governments are starting to take effect and the IMF has revised a more positive forecast for economic growth and recovery in the next year. But how has the deepest global recession since the Great Depression affected consumers globally? In this report, Nielsen uncovers how consumers in different regions will embrace the post-recession world and how recessionary habits may prove harder to break for consumers in the US and Europe – compared to consumers in BRIC markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and Asia - who are preparing to spend their way into prosperous times again. 2
  • 3. Consumers in a Post Recession World Hopes for a full economic recovery accelerated in 26 out of 28 major global markets in the 2nd Quarter of 2009 according to the latest Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index conducted in late June 2009. Driven by renewed consumer optimism and stock market gains in BRIC and key Asian markets, the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index rose five Index points to 82 from 77. In addition, the number of consumers and countries who believe their economy is currently in recession declined six Index points in the last three months, with the most positive feelings of recovery emanating from the BRIC and Asian markets. In the last few months, consumers and market sentiment has switched from recession to recovery – signaling a major turning point for the Global Financial Crisis. 3
  • 4. Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months? June 2009 0% to 15% 15% to 30% Global Average: 26% 30% to 45% 45% to 60% Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009: 14,029 respondents in Europe, Asia Paci c, Middle East and North America Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index 2nd quarter, 2009 113 112 104 103 99 96 96 March June 95 94 93 92 90 90 89 89 89 88 87 87 86 85 84 82 82 82 81 82 81 81 80 80 80 79 78 78 77 77 76 75 73 73 72 72 72 71 70 70 67 65 63 60 60 60 51 42 40 31 JP PL AE al DE FR ZA ES UA AR AU Y CA ID TR BR IT US PH RU GB SG TH HK NZ TW KO IN CN M ob Gl Base : All respondents n= 17107 Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009: 14,029 respondents in Europe, Asia Paci c, Middle East and North America 4
  • 5. Cautious Consumers And while talk of a global recession may be receding, many Many consumers who cut back on new clothes, out-of-home consumers plan to hold on to their thrifty recessionary habits, entertainment and take-away meals and switched to cheaper according to a Nielsen study on consumers in the post- grocery brands to make ends meet plan to stick to these new recession world. habits even when economic conditions improve, according to a recent Nielsen survey of 52 global markets. Even The severity of this recession has brought about a change though consumer confidence is returning in most countries, in consumer values, spending habits and lifestyle choices in the tactics and cutbacks that consumers adopted for the many parts of the world, with some indication that consumers recession may be here to stay for many Europeans, Pacific and in the West will continue to refrain from excessive or American consumers. Forty eight percent of Americans say unnecessary spending across all aspects of their lifestyles - at they will continue to save on gas/electricity bills, 22 percent least in the short term. of Australians will continue to cut down on take-away meals and 23 percent of French say they will continue to use their car less. Perceptions of now being a good or bad time for people to buy the things they want and need 100 80 60 55 49 48 47 45 40 40 38 29 29 27 28 23 21 20 20 19 19 20 17 3 4 3 2 2 2 0 AP EU MEAP LA NA Global Average Base : All respondents n = 17107 Excellent Good Not so good Bad Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Omnibus June 2009: 14,029 respondents in Europe, Asia Paci c, Middle East and North America 5
  • 6. According to the Nielsen survey, nearly one in three (29%) emerging markets of South Africa, Turkey and Latin America global consumers will continue to economise on gas and will try to reduce telephone expenses in the post-recession electricity, while one in six will continue to cut down on take- era. Of all regions, Europeans will still be watching their away meals. One in six global consumers will continue to expenditure on out-of-home entertainment most closely. purchase cheaper grocery products, spend less on new clothes, cut down on out-of-home entertainment and one in seven will Not surprisingly, consumers in the US and Europe -- hardest reduce telephone expenses. hit by the global recession -- are most determined to cling to future cost saving measures in the post-recession world. Saving on gas and electricity, cutting down on take-away Consumers in the BRIC markets, on the other hand, are meals and spending less on new clothes (and switching to generally looking forward to putting recent recessionary cheaper groceries) are key global trends today that may stick behaviours behind them and returning to their previous in the post recession world. On a regional basis, Pacific, North spending patterns, especially Chinese and Russian consumers. American and Western European consumers will continue to switch to cheaper grocery products, while consumers in the Russian and Chinese consumers are utilizing spare cash to keep up with latest fashion trends Top 10 countries who spend spare cash on purchasing new clothes 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 53 49 50% 46 45 41 40% 36 34 34 34 33 30% 20% 10% 0% RU CN UA PH BR PL DE FR AR IN Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009: 14,029 respondents in Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and North America 6
  • 7. After covering essential living costs, consumers are putting their spare cash away for the future 47 Putting into savings 48 31 Holidays / vacations 34 28 New clothes 31 31 Paying off debts / credit cards / loans 30 25 Out of home entertainment 27 21 New technology products 25 22 Home improvements / decorating 25 18 Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds 22 13 I have no spare cash 13 10 Retirement fund 11 2 Don' t know/undecided 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 % Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey March 2009: 26, 719 respondents in 53 markets globally Mar-09 Jun-09 And Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009: 14, 029 respondents in Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and North America Q: Once youhave covered essential living expenses, which of the following statements best desribes what you do with your spare cash. In the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey, BRIC and Survey conducted in March 2009, China recorded just a seven Asian markets scored the greatest increases in Consumer point drop in consumer confidence in the past six months Confidence Indices in the past three months. The Confidence compared to double-digit declines in Russia, Brazil and India. Index climbed 13 points in India and rose eight points in Russia In the latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index in late June, and Brazil. consumer confidence in China increased six Index points. While the BRIC markets did not escape the ravages of the Despite the global recession hitting hard in 2008, China still global recession, the downturn is unlikely to have a marked managed to achieve moderate GDP growth. The Chinese long-term impact on consumer behaviour. Unlike their government’s immediate response to the turndown with Western counterparts, resilient and adaptable BRIC consumers a domestic stimulus package - equal to 13 percent of the simply tightened their belts temporarily and will soon return country’s GDP - played a significant factor in reassuring the to their previous spending habits and lifestyle. The experience Chinese that they would not be headed for a protracted of previous economic crises in Latin America in particular has economic slowdown. According to Nielsen, advertising produced a very adaptable consumer who had learnt to act spend in China still grew by 17 percent in 2008, driven by quickly and make necessary lifestyle cuts during downturns. ad increases in pharmaceutical/health, toiletries, beverages, Among the BRIC nations and perhaps all nations globally, the business/industry/agriculture and food products. Sales of Chinese today remain the most confident of an economic FMCG products remained robust and rose by 21 percent last rebound in the near future. In the Nielsen Global Confidence year compared to 2007. 7
  • 8. The World Bank’s revised forecast for China’s economic growth rate to 7.2 percent this year from their previous 6.5 percent is Growth slowed in China but a global indication for China’s recovery. After the World Bank positive signs have emerged revision, the Chinese stock hit a 10 month high in mid-June fuelled by increasing consumer confidence and optimism. FMCG consumer sales and media ad spend in China stalled in the first Quarter, but towards Urban unemployment remains below five percent and personal the end of the second Quarter positive signs investment in the stock market has rebounded in early 2009, emerged, with many indices bouncing back sharply with an 18 percent increase compared to the same time last in May and June. Second tier cities and modern year, according to the latest Nielsen Personal Finance Monitor trade outlets in general were most affected with conducted from December 2008 to February 2009. consumer confidence low and consumers reigning in the purse strings. Lower tier cities and rural Nielsen’s China Travel Monitor (conducted in January, 2009) areas felt little impact, with some experiencing also reported that over 50 percent of Chinese respondents double digit sales growth and high consumer planned to travel in China domestically in the next 12 months, and 16 percent planned to travel overseas. Among domestic confidence throughout the first half of the travellers, nearly four in 10 said the financial crisis had no year – and since the global economic crisis hit impact whatsoever on their travel plans and only four percent in the fourth Quarter 2008. China experienced said they would cancel their travel plans altogether. volume and value declines in the modern trade for many FMCG categories, especially food. Falling Consumer confidence in Russia has also been spurred by recent commodity prices, retailer stimulated price cuts stock market gains. Russia’s two main stock exchanges are up and government food pricing controls, further over 70 percent in the first half of 2009 – and the stabilization pressured end-consumer prices. This converges of the rouble and rally in oil prices significantly increased on a tight squeeze on value growth for FMCG and consumer confidence. Nielsen’s Consumer Confidence Index some other key consumer segments. in Russia rose seven points between March and May this year – the first increase recorded since the second half of 2007 and During the second quarter sales growth has started the highest single increase since the survey started in 2005. to recover and as this continues and conditions gradually stabilize globally, MNCs are returning to While Russians are still well aware of inflation and their investments in China, despite it being a more unemployment, they’re starting to see beyond the crisis and challenging local environment today than it was a are hoping for a quick return to previous spending patterns few months ago. with one in six Russians saying they won’t retain any of their recessionary habits once the economy improves – and they are looking to open their wallets again to spend on their favourite pastime – clothes shopping. This is a significant turnaround in Russian consumer sentiment and as confidence in the economy is restored, consumers’ desire for branded products and luxury goods will be reignited, bolstering Russia’s reputation as a purchasing powerhouse for high end consumer products. Like Russians, Chinese consumers say they’ll be willing to take the time to hunt around for the best price on a bank loan or insurance but they not prepared to cut back on their fashion spend or out-of-home entertainment in the post-recession era. 8
  • 9. Global Trends On a global scale, continuing to save on gas and electricity As economic recovery gathers pace, consumption and bills has become a lifestyle habit. Among those 69 percent spending will increase – but the post recession consumer who have already taken action to reduce these bills since the is likely to consume very differently. The post-recession onset of the recession, over 50 percent of Australians, Kiwis, consumer will think twice and sometimes thrice about making South Africans, Filipinos, UK, Irish and US consumers say they purchases, big or small. The recession affected all social will continue to take further action to reduce household utility classes and has fundamentally changed how consumers bills. consume – and particularly in the West where it’s now fashionable to be frugal; and trendy to be thrifty. Consumers cost-cutting actions in June were more dramatic than they anticipated in March Global Average 50 Try to save on gas and electricity 40 55 Spend less on new clothes 22 54 Cut down on out-of-home entertainment 20 46 Cut down on take-away meals 24 43 Switch to cheaper grocery brands 21 34 Cut down on telephone expenses 21 38 Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile, etc 14 37 Cut down on holidays / short breaks 11 28 Use my car less often 17 Delay the replacement of 34 major household items 10 Look for better deals on home loans, 23 insurance, credit cards, etc 15 24 Cut out annual vacation 7 22 Cut down on at-home entertainment 8 18 Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol 8 13 Cut down on smoking 9 12 I have taken other actions not listed above 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 % Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey March and June 2009 Actions taken in June 09 Actions predicted in March 09 Base : All Respondents those who said yes at Q10 (code 1) n=9947 9
  • 10. In the US, Australia and many Western European nations, sales Organic Living of bottled water have been in decline for the past two years. Under current circumstances in the West, it’s unlikely that This new mind-set has been directly impacted by consumers’ bottled water will rebound to its previously high-growth levels growing concerns about the world we live in, and the world of five years ago. that will exist for future generations. In the USA, sales growth of organic products nosedived as the Consumers, especially in the West, are realizing that economy worsened. For the 4-week period ending in mid- sustainability, recycling, organic food, bottled water, waste May 2009, dollar sales of UPC-coded products with an organic and the global environment as a whole are all related to the label claim grew by just two percent compared to 24 percent actions they choose to take today. in the previous year. Between 2005 and 2006, many organic Organic food and bottled water may prove to be among the products posted growth rates of 30 percent according to first victims of the recession as the new consumer mind-set Nielsen. Manufacturers and producers of organic products are gathers momentum. At the onset of the recession, consumers being challenged to prove that their product is truly “better cut back on spending on organic products and bottled water for you, and better for the planet”. Consumers need good for economic reasons. Having done without them for several economic – and now, scientifically or medically proven -- months or over a year, consumers may question if they really reasons to justify paying extra for organic products, especially need these products in their lives again, especially with an as it’s becoming known that carbon emissions are often lower ongoing controversial debate on the real “goodness” of organic from the non-organic alternative. products and the recycling and waste issues created by plastic, For US consumers, the top recessionary habits households bottled water. have made part of their lifestyle are saving on gas/electricity USA: The economy takes it toll on organics +35% +30% +25% +20% +15% Monthly sales growth of organics +10% below 4% in last five periods +5% +0% 8 6 08 6 8 6 09 07 9 07 06 7 07 08 07 /0 0 /0 /0 0 0 /0 0/ 2/ 6/ 1/ 2/ 6/ 4/ 9/ 7/ 4/ 9/ 06 25 14 21 /2 /2 /2 /1 /0 /2 /1 /1 /2 /0 /2 / / / / 04 08 06 03 09 02 02 05 05 07 01 10 12 11 11 /E /E /E /E /E /E /E /E /E /E /E /E /E /E /E W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 UPC-Coded Organics Source: Scantrack & LabelTrends, services of The Nielsen Company; (FDM ex-Walmart) % Change in 4-Week Dollar Sales vs. YAGO 10
  • 11. (48%), cutting down on take-away meals (28%) and The winners in the take-away meal sector have been those continuing to switch to cheaper grocery products (28%). companies that have changed their offering to become family- But while they’ll cut back in these areas, other parts of their friendly eateries with an accent on value and healthy food lifestyle will see some rebound. Over 40 percent of US options. Designer-look and family-friendly McCafes from consumers said they’ll be spending on travel and holidays, McDonalds in Europe have been extremely popular during the dining out and out-of-home entertainment according to downturn as families have embraced a low-cost family eating recent survey of 10,000 Nielsen HomescanTM households in option in a modern, family-friendly environment. the USA, a clear indication that while consumers are preparing to loosen their purse-strings in coming months, restraint will be key. The only two Dow Jones In many ways, the recession served to accelerate and intensify companies to grow in 2008 were many of the trends that were emerging before the economic downturn. There has been a decreasing trend for take-away Walmart and McDonalds. And meals, mainly due to growing health and wellness trends, recently Starbucks announced but the cost of take-away meals in developed markets has accelerated this considerably. Among those saying “no” to plans to lower prices on basic take-away meals are Australians, New Zealanders, Japanese, offerings, but raise prices on Irish, South Africans, Brazilians and USA consumers. others. Segmentation is the key to success in this environment. Consumers cut down on out-of-home entertainment significantly more than they predicted 100 90 80 70 66 65 60 61 60 54 % 50 45 40 30 26 19 19 19 20 20 16 10 0 NA MEAP EU LA AP Global Average Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey March and June 2009 Actions taken in June 09 Actions predicted in March 09 Base : All Respondents those who said yes at Q10 (code 1) n=9947 11
  • 12. Staying in will continue to be the new ‘going out’, especially Brands, as consumers experience the range and quality on for around one in five Turkish and US consumers. As offer. In these markets, and for these ‘newly trialled’ Retail consumers decreased their out-of-home entertainment Brand categories, consumers may not see reason to switch budgets there has been a welcome return to traditional social back again. In previous downturns, consumers switched to values with an emphasis on family and friends. cheaper products faster and it took a while for them to switch back to branded products. In this environment, leading brand Some FMCG manufacturers have been quick to capitalize on manufacturers need to focus on regaining customer loyalty consumers’ need for reassurance and security in these days, and ensuring growth of their brand equity. with the return of retro-style ads evoking carefree, secure times of childhood. Even when economic conditions improve, A key driver of Retail Brand growth is the amount of more consumers globally say they will continue to cut back innovation and commitment that Retailers are putting on out-of-home entertainment while only six percent will cut behind them, and the range of products available. FMCG back on at-home entertainment. manufacturers have also responded to consumers’ changing needs for extra-value, introducing products focusing on Many Europeans, Americans and Pacific consumers said they convenience, functionality and innovation. For the average will continue to switch to cheaper priced grocery products shopper, there’s never been such a range of choice in terms of – another trend which accelerated during the recession in products and price as there is now. Similarly, with shopping certain markets and grocery categories -- and looks set to habits largely defined by the retail landscape, there has been continue in the post-recession world. Around one in three Kiwi greater acceptance and popularity for shoppers to frequent and US consumers, along with over 20 percent of German, the predominantly Retail Brand supermarkets of Aldi and Lidl. French, UK, Australians, Malaysians and Singaporeans say they In Europe 1500 Aldi and Lidl stores opened between 2006 and will continue to switch to cheaper grocery brands even when 2008 and their expansion continues. economic conditions improve. When it comes to grocery shopping, what people say and what they do isn’t necessarily the same thing. It is true to say that Retail Brands have benefited from the ‘credit crunch’ brought about by the recession. Countries such as the UK, Switzerland and Germany had highly Retail Brand share in Europe: developed Retail Brand 8 years, 7 countries and 1944 categories propositions prior to 37.9% the recession, where 36.7% 37.2% the growth of Retail 35.6% 34.7% Brands had more to do 33.3% with the consolidation 32.1% 31.3% of retail ownership. This gave more Head Office 31.4% buyers the critical 30.1% 30.6% mass required in their 29.3% 28.7% 28.0% categories to make a 27.0% 27.4% Retail Brand financially viable. The recession may well 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 have stimulated a lot more trial – and then Source: The Nielsen Company Value Share Volume Share conversion – to Retail 12
  • 13. Retail Brands and retailer concentration 50% CH 45% UK 40% 35% Ger Value share of Retail Brands Bel 30% Aut Can Fra 25% Por Ned Spa Den Swe Slo 20% USA NZ Cze Nor Fin Ita Hun Aus 15% Pol Gre 10% Tur 5% Rus 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Retailer Concentration Source: The Nielsen Company 13
  • 14. Switzerland 46% Argentina 8% UK 44% Chile 7% Germany 32% 32% Spain 29% Columbia Source: The Nielsen Company Source: The Nielsen Company 6% Belgium 28% Mexico Austria 27% 5% Canada 26% Brazil 5% France 26% Retail Brand value share in Europe Netherlands 24% Venezuela 2% Portugal 22% Hong Kong 5% Slovakia 22% 22% Retail Brand value share - a global snapshot Sweden 21% Singapore 3% Denmark 21% Malaysia Finland 19% 2% New Zealand 18% South Korea 2% Czech Rep. 18% USA 17% Taiwan 2% Hungary 17% Thailand Norway 1% 17% Italy Indonesia 1% Australia 14% 14% China Poland 12% 1% Greece 11% Phillippines 1% Turkey 8% Average 14
  • 15. In the Nielsen Global Online survey, fifteen percent of global consumers said they will spend less on new clothes even when the economy recovers, compared to 37 percent who have cut back on clothes spending during the recession. While the Chinese, Russians, UAE and Indians will be among the first to update their wardrobes in the post-recession world, those pledging to spend considerably less on fashion are Singaporeans, Malaysians, Italians, Turkish, Brazilians and Australians. The Challenge for Marketers in the Post-Recession World Major international FMCG and fashion manufacturers face the same dilemma in the post-recession world – how to convince consumers to switch back to their ‘old’ brands or try new brands when they have experienced and been satisfied with the quality of a lower-priced option they’ve switched to during the recession. This question has played on manufacturers’ minds throughout the recession resulting in an increased focus on product innovation. Nielsen BASES information indicates that over 50 percent of tested products have succeeded with consumers and among forty new products that Nielsen tracked in the USA last year; none were adversely affected by the recession. The economic downturn sowed some ripe seeds for product innovation – marketers know they’re going to need a particularly innovative product that hits all the right spots with consumers to pry them away from their usual brand. Success in the post-recession era is based on achieving the right combination of value, product innovation and competitive differentiation. In addition to product innovation, manufacturers now have to consider the impact of brand values and corporate responsibility on sales. Brand values used to be the domain of the marketer but these days, it has become a purchasing factor. The post-recession consumer has reassessed their lifestyle and has become a more socially aware and ethically- minded buyer. They expect the same values to resonate in the brands they buy and companies they buy from. The successful, post-recession FMCG company will have to be ethically and socially accountable in the way their products are sourced and manufactured, environmentally aware and good corporate citizens in every way. 15
  • 16. Consumer in the Philippines and China are dedicated to spending on new technology How consumers use spare cash after covering essential living costs - Top #10 spending on new technology products 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 45 43 40 40% 34 34 32 30% 28 27 27 26 20% 10% 0% PH CN BR ID RU IN TR IT UA DE Base : Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey June 2009 All respondents n = 14029 There’s some bright news for manufacturers of household and white goods in the post recession era – consumers who have delayed purchases of some essential household goods for the past two years are looking to finally replace them. Replacing white goods is one of the few areas where Europeans aren’t willing to cut back on any more in an improved economy – although they’ll still hunt for the best value. In Asia, tech savvy consumers in Japan and Korea aren’t prepared to wait much longer to upgrade their current PC and mobile models. In contrast, ten percent of Chinese said they’re willing to continue to delay their tech purchases. Korea aren’t prepared to wait much longer to upgrade their current PC and mobile models. In contrast, ten percent of Chinese said they’re willing to continue to delay their tech purchases. 16
  • 17. Country Abbreviations AE United Arab Emirates IT Italy AR Argentina JP Japan AT Austria KO South Korea AU Australia LT Lithuania BE Belgium LV Latvia BR Brazil MX Mexico CA Canada MY Malaysia CH Switzerland NL Netherlands CL Chile NO Norway CN China NZ New Zealand CO Colombia PH Philippines CZ Czech Republic PK Pakistan DE Germany PL Poland DK Denmark PT Portugal EE Estonia RO Romania EG Egypt RU Russia ES Spain SA Saudi Arabia FI Finland SE Sweden FR France SG Singapore GB United Kingdom TH Thailand GR Greece TR Turkey HK Hong Kong TW Taiwan HU Hungary US United States ID Indonesia VE Venezuela IE Ireland VN Vietnam IL Israel ZA South Africa IN India Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey Nielsen’s Quarterly GlobalOnlineConsumer Survey polled 26, 719 consumers in 53 markets in Europe, Asia Pacific, North The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey America and the Middle East from March 19 to April 2, 2009 and polled 14, 029 respondents in 28 markets in Europe, Asia A twice-yearly online study, the Nielsen Online Global Consumer Confidence survey polled 26, 719 consumers in 53 markets in Pacific, Middle East and North America from June 15 to June 29, 2009 about their confidence levels and economic outlook. The Nielsen ConsumerNorth America and the Middle East from consumers’ confidence in the jobtheir confidenceof theirand economic Europe, Asia Pacific, Confidence Index is developed based on March 19 to April 2, 2009 about market, status levels outlook. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumers’ confidence in the job market, status of their personal finances and readiness to spend. personal finances and readiness to spend. The Nielsen Company The Nielsen Company The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held companymeasurement, trade shows and business information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile is active in more than 100 counties, with headquarters in New The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with publications (Billboard, York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com 11 17