Next 100 years

Next 100 Years
a geo political view

Naeem Zafar
Twitter: @naeem
www.NaeemZafar.com

All rights reserved © Naeem Zafar 1

George Friedman’s Book


Future is Hard to Predict
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

• London is the • Europe torn apart • Germany not • Germany • US defeated in 7
capital of the after WW, great only emerged but defeated year war
world empires gone! conquered FR & • Europe split into • US seems itself
• Trade • New powers dominating EU 2, USSR & US in retreat
interdependencie emerge US, JP • Communism has competing for • US forms alliance
s made war • Imposed peace survived & allies dominance with China to
seem impossible treat will ensure with Nazi • US emerged as control surging
Germany will not • Britain stands super power, USSR
• Appeared that a emerge & alone dominates all
• Fate of Europe oceans & 2000
peaceful Europe threaten again
seems all but immense nuclear • USSR collapsed
will rule the world
seized by 3rd arsenal • China is hardly
Reich • Chinese seems communist
fanatics • NATO advanced
to eastern EU


Future: in a glance
• 2010: American golden age begins
• 2015: China fragments
• 2020: Russian collapse
• 2050: World war USA, Japan, Turkey & Poland
• 2060: the golden age
• 2080: Energy crisis solved: space & solar!
• 2100: American power is challenged: Mexico


Highlights of this Century
1. America’s golden age: absolute dominance
2. Population decline changes politics
3. Use of technology & space


American Dominance
• First country to dominate all 7 oceans in the history
of the world
– Nothing moves without American's explicit permission
• Immigration policy keeps population robust
• Geographical considerations

US does not need to win wars, it needs simply to disrupt things
so the other side can’t build sufficient strength to challenge it


American Century
• US: 4% of world population, 26% of world GDP
• Oil production daily barrels: US 8.3M, Russia
9.7M, Saudi 10.7M
• Population density inhabitant per sq. km:
– US 31 (34 w/o Alaska); Japan 338, Germany 230, world 49


Why America?


Historical Perspective
• 900 AD to 1492 AD
– Europe thrived on Silk Route trades

• 1492 to 1991
– Naval routes found to Asia when ottomans closed Silk Route
– New age of dominance by European naval powers

• 1991 - ??
– North American age starts
– Started by the Lend-Lease act


Major Trend: Population Busts
• Global population decline
• Europe is 728M people today
– Expected to decline to 557M by 2050 (based on
fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman)
• Today the birth rate for Europe is 1.4!
– It used to be 4.5 in 1970s, by 2000 dropped to 2.7
• Expected to drop to 2.05 by 2050
• Total human population can decline by 2100


American Grand Strategy
1. Domination of North American by US army [Manifest
Destiny]
2. Elimination of any threat from any power in western
hemisphere [Monroe Doctrine]
3. Complete control of maritime approaches by Navy
4. Complete domination of world’s oceans to secure US
safety & its trading systems
5. Prevention of any other nation to challenge US naval
power [carrot & the stick]


China Closes Down by 2020


Russia Must Reconstruct Old USSR
• 1200  ~200 mi
• Belarus aligned
with Russia
• Independent
Ukraine is threat


Europe
• ~1000  70
miles
• Russian
collapse of
2020


The Caucus
Region
• Russia will assert power
over Georgia
• US and Turkey will not
like this

Central Asia
• Russia does not like American influence
• US Navy cannot reach here


Expanded Turkish Influence
• American strategy is create
regional forces to bring
stability & not have to fight
all wars directly
• Stronger Turkey keeps Iran
in check & Russians too
• Old Ottoman empire
emerges


Our World in 2030

• Japanese population will drop to 107M with 55 M out of workforce  expand
influence
• Strong Japanese navy – strained relationships with US by 2040
• Turkey will be encouraged by USA to assert through Navy to curb Russian influence
• Vacuum after Russian collapse will expand Turkish power & it helps American
agenda to stabilize region & commerce…. Until 2040 when it becomes too strong!


American Military Prowess
• Unchallenged
• Technology driven innovation
• Allies: Turkey, Poland & Japan to keep world
under control
• …until 2040

the age of Unmanned
Hypersonic aircrafts
Mach 10 to 20

The Global War of 2050
• Space-based weapon will play a huge role
• Japan & Turkey will collaborate
• US prop Poland to face Turkish influence
• Poland will absorb Balkan states aided by US
technology


Space: Next Frontier for Energy
• Space-based solar power
• Used to supply to troops
• Now will power US
• Solves energy crisis


Mexican Challenge
• Immigration laws
of 2030
• Political shift
• Split loyalty of
citizens to older
fault lines
• Language,
biculturalism
• Immigration
issues in 2080 2000


Geo Political Landscape


Summary
• No one can ‘predict’ the future
• Macro trends are visible & hard to argue with
• How shall you prepare for this?


Next 100 years

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