New Graduates Managing for the Upturn - Haniel Seminar (Germany, 2010)
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The document discusses the global financial crisis of 2008 and its causes and consequences. It analyzes factors like the mortgage industry, government policies, and household debt that contributed to the crisis. It also outlines some of the massive costs of the government bailouts. Finally, it argues that a new, more prudent and integrity-focused approach to management is needed to promote recovery and development.
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South of San Francisco lies a small stretch of the famous California Highway 1 notoriously known by locals as The Devil's Slide.
The stunning view along this road is supported by a weak and steep foundation of loose rock, and porous soil that has been increasingly eroding away over the years sweeping cars, pavement and lives into the sea below.
Naturally, rock slides from the erosion reached a point where the road has been deemed unsafe and closed. In the end, the Devil in the details was a weak foundation supported by illogical engineering.
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Global debt levels are at an all-time high of over $255 trillion as of 2019, up significantly from $200 trillion in 2011. While global growth has slowed, the growth rate of debt continues to rise, mirroring debt levels prior to previous debt crises. High debt levels have historically been correlated with periods of low interest rates and extra debt burdens that leave economies vulnerable to rate increases or declines in output. Current debt levels as a percentage of global GDP are also at their highest since the last crisis in 2008. With debt continuing to outpace economic growth, concerns are rising around the sustainability of high debt levels and the potential for another global debt crisis.
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American banks had excess funds and created foreign institutional investors to invest in emerging markets, fueling unnatural growth. Decades of outsourcing devastated US manufacturing and made it impossible for US companies to compete with low-cost countries. The bursting of the US housing bubble was caused by high default rates on subprime mortgages. Financial companies lent money to subprime borrowers and packaged mortgages into securities like mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations. When homeowners defaulted, investments in the US soured, forcing the sale of emerging market investments and causing global markets to decline. Excessive leverage through loans and credit is always risky long-term.
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In the early to mid 2000s a housing bubble was created due to easy access to credit. The fall-out once investment bubble popped nearly brought the banking sector to its knees
This short presentation (part of a series on bubbles) explained what happened
Subprime lt4
1) The subprime mortgage crisis began when many subprime borrowers took out mortgages that they could not afford due to low introductory rates and easy lending practices.
2) These risky subprime mortgages were packaged into mortgage-backed securities and CDOs that were given high credit ratings, obscuring the underlying risk.
3) When housing prices declined and borrowers began to default, it revealed the flaws in the mortgage securities and credit ratings, causing losses that spread through the global financial system.
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This document summarizes the outlook for the global economy and structured finance markets in early 2008. It finds that while economic growth has decoupled internationally, global credit markets remain tight due to concerns about the U.S. economy flirting with recession. Within structured finance, the near-term outlook is poor, but there is long-term optimism if the industry addresses issues through improved transparency and standardization. Housing prices and the U.S. job market will be key indicators to watch in determining if and how deep a recession may be.
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The document provides background on the global financial crisis. It discusses how a period of growth from 2002-2007 was followed by a recession. Countries like Germany, Japan, and China saw trade surpluses but did not increase domestic spending. Low interest rates in the US led to a spending boom and rise in household debt. Risky "NINJA" mortgages were securitized and sold, fueling a property bubble. The defaults began with subprime mortgages, causing interbank lending to dry up. Governments launched expensive bailouts of banks but now face high debt levels. International groups like the IMF, EU stabilization fund, and Financial Stability Board are working to reform regulations and restore stability.
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Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
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The financial crisis was caused by a combination of deregulation of the banking sector, lack of adequate supervision, and the application of flawed economic theories. Banks took on increasingly risky assets due to moral hazard from government guarantees. Their balance sheets became tightly linked to asset bubbles like the housing bubble. When the bubbles burst, banks' balance sheets crashed, threatening the financial system. To address the crisis, governments need Keynesian policies to sustain demand while banks deleverage by shrinking their inflated balance sheets. Recapitalizing banks will substitute government debt for private debt.
2018.10 IceCap Global Outlook
South of San Francisco lies a small stretch of the famous California Highway 1 notoriously known by locals as The Devil's Slide.
The stunning view along this road is supported by a weak and steep foundation of loose rock, and porous soil that has been increasingly eroding away over the years sweeping cars, pavement and lives into the sea below.
Naturally, rock slides from the erosion reached a point where the road has been deemed unsafe and closed. In the end, the Devil in the details was a weak foundation supported by illogical engineering.
Today, the Financial Devil has watched patiently, as the world’s central banks and political leaders built a financial debt and interest rate structure on a foundation consisting of theories, acronyms and worst of all – hope.
Since 1982, the financial world has enjoyed a thrilling ride – one zoomed around the world by 36 years of bailouts and declining long-term interest rates.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook we help you see how a pattern of minor financial stresses will culminate into a major financial stress.
And more importantly, how to identify the opportunities that will be created as the majority of the industry continues to ignore the Financial Devil.
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Budget and-fiscal-policy-gale-5-12-10-2
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NIRI Cincinnati Tri State -- Regional and National Economic Outlook
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1Q15 operating revenue totalled $54bn, slightly ahead of $53bn in a prior-year period. M&A, FX and equities put in a strong performance, but this was partly offset by weak DCM loans, credit and mortgages.
Operating expenses grew 4%, from $38bn in 1Q14 to $39bn in 1Q15. Much of the increase was due to litigation charges at Deutsche Bank and RBS, which we allocated to front-line product units; excluding these items, most of the banks in this report increased their operating efficiency.
In March, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, Yves Mersch (a central banker by training, without any appreciable commercial banking experience), called for the consolidation in the European banking sector, stating that it would result in efficiency gains. That may be, but we doubt this is a good idea in the current environment, characterised by ever-increasing capital and regulatory requirements, fear of ‘too big to fail’ and country-level protectionism. Elsewhere on the regulatory front, the Fed seems ready to introduce even tougher CCAR stress tests.
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- 1. New Graduates managing for theupturn Tomás Cafferata 25.06.2010
- 3. Whathappened? A world in crisis
- 4. A World in Crisis 425 pts. 2001
- 5. A World in Crisis MortgageOriginations 25% 2005
- 6. A World in Crisis Banks’ excess of depositsoverloans / $trn 2 1 + 0 - 1 2 Developedworld 2008 Emergingmarkets
- 7. A World in Crisis 2008
- 8. A World in Crisis -21.5% -7.4% -15.2% -14.4% 2009
- 9. Who are tobeblamed? Ourliability
- 14. Governments Mark-to-market Administrations FED Rate HousingReform Gramm-Leach-Bliley
- 15. Ourliability U.S. HouseholdDebt / DisposableIncome
- 16. Ourliability U.S. AnnualCreditCardSolicitations in Billions
- 17. Ourliability U.S. Percent of FamilieswithCreditCardDebt Year 1989 Year 2005
- 19. Payingthepiper 4.9tr. 2800 USA 624 Germany 586 China 468 France 260 Netherlands 238 UK
- 20. Payingthepiper 4.9tr. 2900 War in Irak 689 Poland’s GDP 515 Y. Shiftingto solar power 465 5y. Kid’sfood and education 200 Africa’spoorestcountriesdebt 113 Argentina’sdebt 115 Marshall Plan
- 21. The Big Picture People Companies Government Confidence
- 22. The Big Picture People Companies Government People Companies Government Unemployment Bankrupts Downturn
- 23. The Big Picture People Companies Government MISMANAGEMENT
- 24. A new MANAGEMENT fortheupturn
- 26. Managingfortheupturn Negligence Prudence Returns Integrity Liquidity
- 27. Managingfortheupturn Common Good Development
- 29. thankyou.
- 30. New Graduates managing for the upturn Tomás Cafferata 25.06.2010