National Political Mirror ~ March 2019 Issue

RNINO.DELENG/2-13/52894
VOLUME : 6 ISSUE : 2, MARCH, 2019 RS. : 100
www.nationalpoliticalmirror.com
FINAL MAGAZINE MARCH 2019_Layout 1 12-03-2019 23:03 Page 1

| MARCH, 2019 |NATIONAL POLITICAL MIRROR| 3
Countdown for LS Polls Begins
P
utting to rest all the speculations, post air strike about the election
schedule, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has finally an-
nounced the country’s general elections schedule. This is regarded
as the world's largest democratic exercise to constitute the 17th Lok
Sabha of India.
While announcing the poll schedule, the ECI informed that the elections would
be held in seven phases from 11 April to 19 May.The election results will be an-
nounced on 23 May.
About 900 million eligible voters will play an important role in electing candidates,
they think eligible, from across India to fill 543 out of 545 seats in Lok Sabha.
For the remaining two seats, the President of India, under the Indian Constitution,
will appoint two representatives to fill the vacant positions.
Interestingly, news world was abuzz with rumours that the ECI was delaying the
announcement of the Lok Sabha polls only to allow Prime Minister Narendra
Modi to launch several schemes and projects as a last attempt to woo voters.
It is reported that Modi has launched 157 projects from sections of highways,
railway lines, medical colleges, hospitals, schools, gas pipelines, airports, water
connections, sewage connections, power plants and many more in last two
months. This would not have been possible if the dates were declared earlier
owing to the Model Code of Conduct that restricts the government from making
major announcements.
On the other hand, the ECI has time until 3 June to constitute the new govern-
ment at Centre.
The elections for the 16th Lok Sabha were held in April–May month of 2014,
which was won by National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) under the leadership of the current Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In 2014 polls, the BJP won 282 parliamentary seats while contesting a total of
428 constituencies, and Congress won 44.
In addition to Lok Sabha poll schedule, the commission has also announced the
dates of upcoming Assembly elections in the states of Andhra Pradesh,
Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim which will be held simultaneously with
the general elections. However, it has not included the election for Jammu and
Kashmir assembly in the ongoing process. This has been rued by NC and PDP
combined.
Finally, we hope that 2019 elections will be historic and bring some political
change in country.
Editorial

RNINO.DELENG/2-13/52894
VOLUME : 6 ISSUE : 2, MARCH, 2019 RS. : 100
www.nationalpoliticalmirror.com
VOLUME: 6 ISSUE: 2, MARCH 2019
GROUP EDITOR
Abhishek Verma
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Sanjeeb Kumar
DIRECTOR
Deepshikha Singh
ASSISTANT EDITORS
Raja Mohanty - Odisha
Anuj Tyagi - Western Uttar Pradesh
Subhash Yadav - Eastern Uttar Pradesh
PRESIDENT
Nirmala Singh Rana
GUEST COLUMN
Major Gen. (Retd.) Anil Sengar
Former Commander V K Jha
BUSINESS HEADS
Robin Khan
Shiv Kumar Chauhan
IT HEAD
Ritesh Kumar
SENIOR IT MANAGER
Umesh Chauhan
SENIOR PHOTO JOURNALIST
Hari Om Sharma
DESIGN HEAD
Ajay Kumar Sharma
LEGAL ADVISOR
Sumit Kumar Modi
———————————————
Owned, edited, printed and published by Sanjeeb
Kumar published from 34, Lane no. 10, South
Ganesh Nagar, New Delhi 110092. Printed by Mod-
est Graphic (P) Ltd, C: 52-53, DDA Shades, Okhla
Industrial Area, Phase-1, New Delhi-110020.
——————————-———————————
All disputes to be settled in Delhi Courts. All rights
reserved. No responsibility in taken for returning un-
solicited manuscripts unless a self-address stamped
envelope is enclosed. Views express in articles of
National Political Mirror do not necessarily reflect
those of the Publisher or the Editor.
——————————-———————————
How To Reach Us:
NATIONAL POLITICAL MIRROR
Head office: 34, Lane no. 10, South Ganesh Nagar,
New Delhi 110092.
Mobile: 8527577849 (WhatsApp)
Email: Editor@nationalpoliticalmirror.com
4 | MARCH, 2019 |NATIONAL POLITICAL MIRROR|
Does India Need Lobbyists?
Political Mood in Hindi HeartlandTopple the Topper
Immature Pakistan:A Real N`uclear Threat
Congress Leaves AAP in the Cold
10
25
18
20
6

26
28
32
Reduced GST: Inching Towords your Dream House
Congress–DMK Scare: A U-Turn Waiting in South
BJP Faces Tough Challenge in Jharkhand
Women in Army: Assets or a Compromise?
45

GOVERNANCE
By Deepshikha Singh
N
ira Radia Lobbying and lobbyists have
been scorned in India. Their survival
appears to have surprised some. Their
responsibility in civil society and ad-
ministration has been questioned by
others, and their alleged influence on the government
machinery has left many shocked. Therefore, skilled
mediators, with the influential powers to convince,
the ability to connect individuals/corporations with
the government and the skill to manipulate public pol-
icy appear to have peremptorily been released from
the decision making process in India.
Before we demonise these individuals let us sketch
the birth of lobbyists and try to understand the rea-
sonable role these influential individuals/organisa-
tions play in some of the more politically advanced
countries. It may perhaps also be supportive to
analyse the legislation which at present exists and reg-
ulates the operation of these power brokers in western
countries and attempt to establish if similar legislation
could be introduced in India to observe their reach.
The ultimate objective is to judge, what role, if any,
Does India Need
Lobbyists?In America lobbying is a legal profession, and have laws protecting the lobbyist. But in
India with corruption being on such a rampant scale, do we really need lobbyists?
Deepak Talwar, DTA Associates

exists for lobbyists in Indian democracy.
Lobbyist sketch
Lobbying is the act of attempting to influence deci-
sions made by officials in the government, most often
legislators or members of regulatory agencies. Lob-
bying is done by many different types of people and
organized groups, including individuals in the private
sector, corporations, fellow legislators or government
officials, or advocacy groups (interest groups). Lob-
byists may be among a legislator’s constituents,
meaning a voter or bloc of voters within his or her
electoral district, or not; they may engage in lobbying
as a business, or not. Professional lobbyists are people
whose business is trying to influence legislation on
behalf of a group or individual who hires them.
In our country where lobbying is not considered a
preferred profession, chances are that anyone ventur-
ing into the field would be considered undesirable
contact men (UCM). UCM are persons who are reg-
ularly checked by the agency and through whom gov-
ernment officials are not meant to “cooperate,
mingle,” or enter into any contracts with. They have
worked silently in the corridors of power in New
Delhi, shaping and reshaping policies to benefit their
clients for deals running into hundreds of crores.
A successful lobbyist has a broad network of con-
tacts. Several have worked through leading public re-
lation companies and make a name for them in the
market. They are as well active in administration cir-
cles and have the benefit of the confidence of top bu-
reaucrats and middle-rung officials. Nearly all big
industries have arrangements with UCM but they up-
hold a highly regarded face—through the official pub-
lic relations officer. The filthy work is left to
easy-to-disown outsider.
How lobbyists are a poison for
democracy in India
In several recent developments, lobbyists have come
to acquire massive power, to the point of influencing
the choice of a Cabinet minister, nominating key bu-
reaucrats, and formulating economic and industrial
policies at the nuts-and-bolts level. There are other
instances also of lobbyists intrusively snooping with
policymaking processes, political party affairs and
parliamentary dynamics in ways which would have
been impossible only years ago.
Former Foreign Secretary Dr. S Jaishankar joined as Tata
Group's President of Global Corporate Affairs
Niira Radia, Vaishnavi

GOVERNANCE
Not to be unseen is the clout that lobbyists wield in
armed forces contracts, agribusiness, seeds, civil avi-
ation, and opening up retail trade to organised busi-
ness, including multinational hypermarket chains like
Metro, Carrefour and Wal-Mart.
Corporate lobbying has become the highest embodi-
ment of crony capitalism in India. Some companies
started as straightforward public relations firms, but
have diversified into corporate advocacy and lobby-
ing. Others, like Niira Radia’s Vaishnavi, Neucon and
Noesis (She is currently the chairperson of Nayati
Healthcare & Research), Suhel Seth’s Counselage,
,Dubai-based businessman Rajiv Saxena , or corpo-
rate aviation lobbyist Deepak Talwar were launched
with corporate lobbying as their core business. In ad-
dition, there are person entrepreneur-lobbyists like
MPs Amar Singh and NK Singh, who were working
for different clients.
Since India is rapidly growing globally and vigor-
ously pursuing neoliberal policies, full-size Business
today has an excellently bigger stake than in the past
for securing bonus contracts. So much for the much-
vaunted “free market”!
Currently, lobbying is about recruiting as many re-
tired top-ranking public servants like Former Indian
foreign secretary Dr S Jaishankar who joins Tata
Group's President of Global Corporate Affairs and An
1976 batch IAS batch officer Rajeev Talwar from the
Maharashtra cadre and joins join DLF Group as CEO
as possible so they can influence their juniors col-
leagues on their clients’ behalf.
This harmful practice should be banned and punished.
Future of Lobbying in India
An additional feature of the new-generation business
lobbyists are their strong global connections. Busi-
ness lobbying is far more dangerous and commer-
cially collusive than the politician-criminal nexus. It’s
also much extra damaging at the national level. Lob-
byists introduce irrational and irrelevant elements in
decision-making and challenge the public interest.
They add exclusively to sleaze, venality, pessimism
and corruption in the entire polity.
Way back during the 1980s, the Indian political class
approved the corrosive position of lobbyists in armed
forces contracts and in total banned middlemen from
defence purchase negotiations.
NK Singh Rajeev Talwar

However at present it has succumbed to that very
pressure on a gigantically greater scale—not just in
the armed forces contracts, although in every sphere.
Except this poisonous power be removed, and lobby-
ing forbidden and punished, it will weaken and hol-
low out Indian democracy, our most expensive
possession. Democratic system must be protected
against business exploitation and greedy business lob-
bying.
Comparison
In U.S.A, lobbying is a massive, recognized business
unlike India which requires lawful lobbies and is full
of bribery scandals. The capability of individuals,
groups, and corporations to lobby the government is
sheltered by the right to petition in the First Amend-
ment to the United States Constitution and the lobby-
ing market. Lobbying can be a substitute for, or a
complement to, corruption. The difference strikes out
when American govt. appoints lobbyists for U.S. air-
lines who work on taxes, regulation, infrastructure
and market access while a similar situation in India
would have seen a civil aviation scam or an Indian
airlines corruption scandal with lot of private parties
(business magnets) involved and lack of policy mak-
ing from lobbyists.
As global corporations woo a billion customers, there
are tax breaks and contracts to be wrested from Indian
officialdom. Some companies still get them by corrupt
means, covering their tracks with middlemen, as some
foreign managers acknowledge in private and as high-
profile Indian media investigations have alleged. But
many companies are turning to lobbyists who use sub-
tler tools of influence, partly out of fear of anti-bribery
laws which threatens jail time even for chief execu-
tives if they let workers pay bribes overseas.
But if thought from a contrary point, replacing one
evil with another is not a perfect solution. Lobbying
itself is heavily regulated as it is very easy for a lob-
byist to stray into bribery, the most direct way to in-
fluence legislation, obviously, is to bribe enough law
makers to ensure that the bill you support passes. It
is of inconspicuous harm to both private and public
sectors but yet better compared to grass root corrup-
tion. Leave alone the 2020 dream India vision, we are
still among the top 81 countries corruption list and
when reality calls, we have to answer - either lobby-
ing or the resident evil - corruption. Public opinion
always makes the difference.
nnnn
Rajiv Saxena, a co-accused in AgustaWestland scandal
Business lobbying is
far more dangerous
and commercially
collusive than the
politician-criminal
nexus. It’s also much
extra damaging at the
national level.

COVER STORY
P
ulwama, noting but
impatience leading
to immaturity: Pak-
istan’s sustained use
of terrorism as a
state instrument gave it a sense
of self belief, despite the surgi-
cal strike following Uri. The
self-belief led to complacency
hinged on the fact that, ‘let us
see what India can do.’ Given to this fact if one looks
closely changing face of activities on the other side
of the border, one can get a picture of it. The surgical
strike, though the establishment there tried vehe-
mently to give a false picture to the citizens, still
many disbelieved it. This intensified further with the
release of the movie on surgical strike. So, was
planned Pulwama. India always remained on diplo-
matic overdrive, this caused discomfort to the ISI and
Pak army. Repeated attempt for talks even on the side
lines of UNGA and India’s refusal to participate in
the SAARC summit led to further frustration. The at-
tempt to hold give a seminar on Kashmir in England
failed at Indian diplomatic offensive. Meanwhile,
though it continued to hide the loss of lives of forces
on LOC and Baluchistan, the numbers kept on rising
adding salt to the injury. The muffled but growing
questioning about the actuality of surgical strike and
growing diplomatic failure, led to the strike, using In-
dian internal resources. And here they committed the
biggest blunder rather a hara-kiri.
The attack failed to give immediate desired result.
The international community solidly stood with India.
What further caused anxiety was the failure to read
the Indian mind. ‘What India is going to do, another
surgical strike for which they remained prepared or a
full or limited ground offensive,’ this answer they
never got. There reports that the Pak army had asked
hospitals as deep as Baluchistan to remain prepared
to treat war injured in case of a war. Nothing hap-
pened. The air strike was always thought in case of a
full-fledged ground attack to assist the army. Mean-
while, all and sundry resorted to ‘so called threatening
posture’given the growing internal demand, in India,
for a retaliation. Then finally came the assault deep
inside Pakistan causing both international and internal
humiliation and near diplomatic isolation.
On the diplomatic front the first major setback came
when India, China and Russia signed that historic
Immature Pakistan:
A Real Nuclear Threat
Little Boy and Fat Man (atomic bombs responsible for destroying the Japanese
cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki) still instil fear among the psyche of humanity
keeping in mind the widespread destruction they caused instantly and for decades
thereafter. With the rising number of nuclear weapons around the globe, it seems
the world is again inching towards another Hiroshima and Nagasaki-type dis-
aster. The situation gets worse with irresponsible nation like Pakistan constantly
piling up its nuclear warheads sans their safety. In the present world, nine coun-
tries -- China, India, Israel, France, North Korea, Russia, the United Kingdom
and the United States -- hold nearly 16,000 nuclear weapons. And they are
enough to destroy one hundred Earths.
By Abhishek Verma

joint pact. Though it did not name Pakistan still there
were enough of indication that it was targeted towards
Pakistan. The international powers sermon on not es-
calating the situation and tide over the terror organi-
sations led to further humiliations. Even China, the
all-weather friend, reaction did not evoke confidence
there. The next day aerial misadventure, where 24 air-
craft were chased away by just 8 Indian fighters and
the subsequent loss of one F-16 to a vintage MiG
21Bison added salt to injury. The icing on the cake
was the resolution again JeM and with China remain-
ing silent, a move by France, Britain and America.
The escalating tension between India and its neigh-
bour Pakistan once again given air to apprehensions
of Nuke War between the two neighbours. Although
it is believed that Pakistan possessed nuclear weapons
since the mid-1980s, the United States continued to
certify that Pakistan did not possess such weapons
until 1990. In 2014, Pakistan projected that by 2020 it
would have enough missile material for 200 warheads,
which can only be used once Pakistan starts losing war
on all three fronts, that is, land, water and air.
Pakistan Providing ‘Safe Havens’ to Terrorists
Post India and Pakistan’s separation in 1947, relations
between them have been in a near constant state of
agitation. The two sides have fought several major
wars -- the last being in 1999 -- involving thousands
of casualties and numerous skirmishes across the Line
of Control in the contested Kashmir region. India has
long been raising the issue on international stages that
Pakistan has been breeding terrorism on its soil for
long. Even after providing Pakistan with the proof
that their Army is helping ISI and other terrorist out-
fits to recruit more terrorists only to spread violence
in India, Pakistan has failed miserably to take any
concrete steps to stop breeding terrorism.
According to Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow for
defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Insti-
tute, ‘Without the active support of the government
in Islamabad, it is doubtful whether the Taliban could
ever have come to power in Afghanistan. Pakistani
authorities helped fund the militia and equip it with
military hardware during the mid-1990s when the
Taliban was merely one of several competing factions
in Afghanistan’s civil war. Only when the United
States exerted enormous diplomatic pressure after the
Sept. 11 attacks did Islamabad begin to sever its po-
litical and financial ties with the Taliban. Even now
it is not certain that key members of Pakistan’s intel-
ligence service have repudiated their Taliban clients’.
It is well-known thatAfghanistan is not the only place
where Pakistani leaders have flirted with terrorist
clients, Pakistan has also helped rebel forces in Kash-
mir even though those groups have committed terror-
ist acts against civilians. And it should be noted that
a disproportionate number of the extremist madrasas
The Effects of Nuclear Bomb

schools funded by the Saudis operate in Pakistan.
Former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has
conceded in a TV interview that his forces trained
militant groups to fight India in Indian-administered
Kashmir. He also confessed that the government
‘turned a blind eye’ because it wanted to force India
to enter into negotiations, as well as raise the issue in-
ternationally.
He also said Pakistani spies in the Inter-Services In-
telligence directorate (ISI) cultivated the Taliban after
2001 because Karzai's government was dominated by
non-Pashtuns, who are the country's largest ethnic
group, and by officials who were thought be favour-
ing India.
What must India do in case of nuclear attack? Pak-
istan has always tried to pose itself as a nuclear pow-
ered country. At the drop of hat its leaders and
generals give a hint of having nuclear weapons.
America remained in a denial mode about this pos-
session of nuclear arsenal by Pak for a long time and
acknowledged only in the early part of new millen-
nium.
Indian worries hovers over the safety and security of
vital installations like BARC, major dams, cities like
Delhi, Mumbai and so on. But, the fact remains Pak-
istan will never attack with nuclear warheads. Even
eminent Pak intellectuals like Hasan Nissar and
Najam Sethi, who was once editor of Geo television
and some general have warned against this misadven-
ture. Their argument is against one bomb, the whole
Pakistan would get wiped out with Indian might.
Even they pooh-poohed the tactical battlefield nuclear
missile. Their argument is it will be effective when
the battle reaches enemies drawing room else it will
hit only Pak territories.
And here is another possible scenario. India thus has
turned toward missile defence to bolster its counter
value threat. The calculations proceed as follows:
Pakistan first uses tactical nuclear weapons on invad-
ing Indian military formations, which leads to a mas-
COVER STORY
By Former Commander V K Jha
The nuclear race between India and Pakistan is inten-
sifying. Over the past decade, Pakistan has become
alarmed by the widening gap between its ability to
wage conventional war against India. Pakistan has
turned to its nuclear inventory to level the playing
field.
Pakistan has taken an asymmetric approach to com-
pensate for its comparative weakness: building up its
nuclear arsenal. In fact, Islamabad has already begun
to design and develop tactical nuclear weapons that
could someday be deployed against Indian troops on
the battlefield. Now, Pakistan is searching for the sec-
ond-strike capability that the Babur-3 might provide.
With a reported range of 450 kilometers (280 miles),
the newest cruise missile could reach most of India's
major cities, though much of the country's interior —
would still be out of range.
Pakistan has a plausible sea-based second-strike capa-
bility in the form of submarine fleet that can fire mis-
siles.As of now Pakistan has only five of these vessels,
three of which could be considered fairly modern and
it would get supplemented by eight Yuan class sub-
marines from China based in Ormara (not Karachi).
China tested and acquired nuclear weapons in the 1960s.
The first of China's nuclear weapons tests took place in
1964, and its first hydrogen bomb test occurred in 1967.
Tests continued until 1996, when China signed the Com-
prehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). China has acceded
to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention
(BWC) in 1984 and ratified the ChemicalWeapons Con-
vention (CWC) in 1997.
The next country to acquire nuclear weapons was Pak-
istan, which commenced its quest after the 1971
Bangladesh conflict. Pakistan began development of
Inventory of
A few steel and concrete buildings and bridges stand intact
in Hiroshima, seen on September 5, 1945.

sive Indian retaliatory strike that not
only devastates Pakistani cities, but
also knocks out much of Islamabad's
nuclear arsenal. Although Pakistan
launches its remaining nuclear mis-
siles as part of its second-strike ca-
pability — a country's assured ability
to respond to a nuclear attack with its
own powerful nuclear strikes —
India's mature missile defences
largely succeed in intercepting them.Although fallout
from the intercepted nuclear missiles would still harm
millions in India.
In the words of Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal, a security
and strategic expert, “India must remain prepared for
a future war with effective planning. It must have de-
velop good delivery systems thus further strengthen-
ing the Agni series of distance and ICBMs. Similarly,
it must prove to the world that Pakistan must sign the
NPT through diplomatic initiatives. Besides, India
must show the political will power and military might
to show to the adversaries that it has the capability
and willingness to go any length to defend its own in-
terest.
Why denuclearization of Pakistan is one way for
the world community?
Terrorism in Pakistan has led the West in deep con-
cerns regarding safety and security of its nuclear
weapons, increasing the possibility that nuclear
weapons and materials could land up in the hands of
Pakistani-based terrorists groups.
Even the United States has periodically expressed
concern that nuclear weapons and materials in Pak-
istan are not in safe hands. This concern has become
more aggravated with the development of tactical
weapons being used the Pakistani army.
The US authorities also reiterated their apprehension
of potential contact between Pakistan’s nuclear sci-
entists and extremist groups.
It is also a well-known fact that Pakistan initiated the
development of the nuclear weapon program with full
rigour after the defeat in the 1971 war and the cre-
ation of Bangladesh.
Currently, Pakistan has a total of 15 nuclear sites, of
which only three -- Karachi, Chashma and Pinstech -
-are under IAEA safeguards and others are under the
nuclear weapons in January 1972 under Prime Minis-
ter Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who delegated the program to
the Chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Com-
mission (PAEC) Munir Ahmad Khan with a commit-
ment to having the bomb ready by the end of 1976.
India crossed the nuclear threshold only after it re-
ceived a veiled threat from Pakistan during tensions
over military exercises named Operations Brasstacks
in January 1987. Instructions were issued in 1988 to
nuclear scientist P.K. Iyengar and scientific adviser
V.S. Arunachalam to assemble a nuclear arsenal.
India’s distinguished strategic thinker, K. Subrah-
manyam, provided the rationale for the nuclear
weapons programme. India decisively demonstrated
its nuclear weapons capabilities ten years later, with
the Pokhran nuclear rests. Pakistan followed barely a
fortnight later.
Project 596. Project 596, originally named by the US
intelligence agencies Chic-1, is the codename of the
People's Republic of China's first nuclear weapons
test, detonated on 16 October 1964, at the Lop Nur
test site.
The Pokhran-II tests were a series of five nuclear
bomb test explosions conducted by India at the Indian
Army's Pokhran Test Range in May 1998. It was the
second instance of nuclear testing conducted by India;
the first test, code-named Smiling Buddha, was con-
ducted in May 1974.
Chagai-I is the code name of five simultaneous under-
ground nuclear tests conducted by Pakistan at 15:15
hrs PST on 28 May 1998. The tests were performed
at Ras Koh Hills in the Chagai District of Balochistan
Province. Chagai-I was Pakistan's first public test of
nuclear weapons.
Ruination

COVER STORY
control of the army and remain unsafeguarded. Addi-
tional plutonium enrichment plants are coming up at
Pinstech.
Pakistan is reported to have the fastest growing nu-
clear arsenal in the world with estimates of 120 to 140
warheads in its possession.
The development of Pakistan's nuclear delivery sys-
tems has been assisted mainly by China and North
Korea, while some systems are indigenously pro-
duced.
Pakistan's delivery vehicles include modified F-
16A/B aircraft and a few Mirage V and Chinese-built
A-5 Fantans, under the control of the Pakistan air
force and a variety of surface-to-surface missile sys-
tems under the control of the army.
The lowering of Pakistan's nuclear threshold is of
greater concern than the prospect of nuclear terrorism
due to theft of fissile material.
This aspect is worrisome not only for India and the
West, but even for Pakistan. But it claims that its nu-
clear arsenal is well protected by the army's 20,000-
strong SPD, which takes its orders from Pakistan's
Nuclear Command Authority.
According to the NukeMap website, the dropping of
the B-83, the largest bomb in the current US arsenal,
would kill 1.4 million people in the first 24 hours. A
further 3.7 million people would be injured, as the
thermal radiation radius reaches 13 km.
It is the high time that super powers including China
direct Pakistan to stop its clandestine nuclear pro-
gramme going further.
Climate Threat from Nuclear Bombs
Nuclear bombs are lethal weapons that cause cata-
clysmic explosions when energy is released by the
splitting of uranium or plutonium atoms in atomic
bombs or the fusion of hydrogen atoms in hydrogen
bombs.A detonated nuclear bomb produces a fireball,
shockwaves and intense radiation.A mushroom cloud
forms from vaporized debris and disperses radioactive
particles that fall to earth contaminating air, soil,
water and the food supply. When carried by wind cur-
rents, fallout can cause far-reaching environmental
damage.
Nuclear weapons instantly kill most life forms in the
target zone. For example, when the United States
dropped an atomic bomb over Hiroshima in 1945,
everything was decimated within a 4.4 square mile
JeM founder Masood Azhar, LeT and JuD co-founder Hafiz Muhammad Saeed and HuM founder Sayeed Salahudeen

radius of detonation. The bomb had the effect of
20,000 tons of dynamite, as noted in a 1946 inves-
tigative report released by the Manhattan Engineer
District. Surviving humans and animals in Hiroshima
sustained radiation poisoning, severe burns and in-
juries from flying glass. Similar casualties resulted
when the United States bombed Nagasaki three days
later. In nearby areas, trees were uprooted, snapped
off, scorched and stripped of leaves.
Detonation of nuclear bombs above ground can inject
radioactive particles into the stratosphere causing
global fallout. Nuclear bombs produce even higher
levels of fallout than nuclear plant accidents, which
are considerable. For example, operator error at the
Chernobyl nuclear facility in 1986 spewed radioactive
fallout into the air, causing contamination of five mil-
lion acres of cropland in the Ukraine
Why China Supports Pakistan
India was China's enemy, and Pakistan was India's
enemy. To counter India in the region, the Chinese
did a massive training of Pakistani scientists (just like
the Russians had done for them), brought them to
China for lectures and even gave them the design of
the CHIC-4 device, which was a weapon that was
easy to build. There is an age old phrase, “Enemy’s
enemy is a friend” and the interests of Pakistan and
China aligned for this reason after US withdrew its
political and financial footprint from Pakistan in
2008-2009.
Evidence also exists that A.Q. Khan used Chinese de-
signs in his nuclear designs. Notes from those lectures
later turned up in Libya, for instance.And the Chinese
did similar things for the Saudis, North Koreans and
the Algerians.
Since establishing diplomatic ties in 1951, China and
Pakistan have enjoyed a close and mutually beneficial
relationship. Pakistan was one of the first countries to
recognize the People’s Republic of China in 1950 and
remained a steadfast ally during Beijing’s period of
international isolation in the 1960s and early 1970s.
China has long provided Pakistan with major military,
technical and economic assistance, including the
transfer of sensitive nuclear technology and equip-
ment. Some experts predict growing relations be-
tween the United States and rival India will ultimately
prompt Pakistan to push for even closer ties with its
long-time strategic security partner, China. Others say

COVER STORY
China’s increased concern about Pakistan-based in-
surgency groups may cause Beijing to proceed with
the relationship in a more cautious manner.
Meanwhile, China is concerned over the increasing
level of extremism inside Pakistan. Some experts say
China is also concerned about Chinese Uighur sepa-
ratists in the western province of Xinjiang finding a
safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas.According to past
Asian Survey article, Uighur militants were enrolled
in Pakistani madrassas during the 1980s and fought
the Soviets alongside the Taliban and later against the
U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan.
Even as India accuses JeM andAzhar of masterminding
several terrorist attacks on Indian soil, including a
deadly assault on an Indian airbase in Pathankot in Jan-
uary 2016. Pakistani investigators sayAzhar and his as-
sociates had no links with the attack. Helping Pakistan,
China has many a times foiled India’s bid on interna-
tional forums to declare Azhar as a global terrorist.
As China and Pakistan are believed to be 'all-weather
friends', and Beijing often views New Delhi as a com-
petitor and even a threat. Supporting Azhar could be
a way to needle India and appease Pakistan.
Another reason could be China holding a grudge
against India for giving asylum to Tibetan spiritual
leader Dalai Lama in 1959, after China occupied
Tibet in 1950. ‘For the Chinese, the Dalai Lama is
sort of the equivalent of (Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorist
group leader) Hafeez Saeed for India’, an Indian
diplomat who was posted in Beijing said.
Nonetheless, the nuclear warheads-equipped Pakistan
is no match to India in the conventional warfare, and
that is the reason that it is involved in low-intensity
war against it. Hence, India should try to strengthen
its internal security to counter the terrorist attacks as
Pakistan is not a threat, but it is an irritation.
It is only because of the huge investment that China
has done in Pakistan that China can never give up on
Pakistan, and therefore, will continue to support Pak-
istan against India.
We must respect the news item: Citing an example of
Indian mind set former head of R&AW RSN Singh
said, “we must respect the news quotient and act on
it. When the death is in single digit it is a news for us
and when it becomes double digit then we give it a
status of impending catastrophic. We must respect
Former Pakistani Military Ruler and President Pervez Musharraf

one death even and act on it else incidents like this
will continue to happen.” It is a fact that Pakistan felt
left out with Saudi and UAE not showing any solidar-
ity despite India attacking. Similarly, its foreign re-
serve is so low it can never sustain a war for more
than 3-4 days. Besides, at the time of attack its oil re-
serve was abysmally low, according to some reports.
It was always on a back foot and India’s act of re-
straint saved the day for Pakistan. Many speculated
about a possible retaliation however, experts say that
it would be though the terror elements, not now but
not in a very distant future.
Imran did a mistake in his calculations about India.
He was sure about his acceptance in general in India
and his fan following amongst the Indian think tanks.
So, he was always sure that he would get a very pos-
itive response no matter what comes from his side.
But, the current class of political leaders never got
amused with his western charm and rustic handsome-
ness, which have a huge fan following in his side. But
it failed to enthuse anyone.
In response to Imran’s claim ‘nayi Pakitan aur nayi
soch,’ our foreign office said, prove it through ‘nayi
action’ against the terrorists. Pakistan has very well
understood that there will always be non-restricted
belligerence in case of terrorist misadventures. How-
ever, it is yet to realise this as it still believes in its
military strength and the action it can perpetuate
through those ‘non state actors’. At a time when its
currency is trading 140 against US$ 1, the foreign
currency reserve is just for two months import, it is
debt servicing to China is done thorough doles from
Saudi and UAE it has enhanced its defence budget by
32% this year. India must not lower its guards. It has
to maintain its guard against a neighbour, whom it
cannot change, who is not be believed.
Even as nations across the world are voicing their
concerns regarding the safety of nuclear weapons in
Pakistan, it is of utmost importance for India to create
an environment with the support of its allies to force
Pakistan to stop making further nuclear weapons and
ensure the safety of its current weapons. Otherwise,
the day is not far away when the world will face the
Third World War, this time with devastating nuclear
weapons.
nnnn
Indian Airlines carrier IC 814 hijacked to Kandahar in 1999 happened with support of ISI.

ELECTION-2019
By Former Commander V K Jha
Politics of Alliance
Social biases built around caste or ethnic identities
remain deeply entrenched in politics in Hindi heart-
land, even as the way they are expressed might be
changing. Cross-caste coalitions have been a hall-
mark of recent state and national elections, and ap-
peals to identity politics are increasingly married
with promises of economic development.
The alliance in Uttar Pradesh (UP) between the
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party
(SP) and resurgence of Congress in Uttar Pradesh
are surely giving nightmares to the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) regime. Similar coalition and confeder-
ation of the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD),
Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), Hindustani
Awam Morcha (HAM) and Loktantrik Janata Dal in
Bihar will provide the perfect occasion for critical
political test for the BJP.
Indeed, these upcoming elections -- both general and
assembly -- spread across a great swathe of the Hindi
heartland will render the perfect occasion for a crit-
ical political litmus test for the two principal national
parties, the BJP and the Congress. As Otto von Bis-
marck so well-articulated that ‘Politics is the art of
the possible, the attainable — the art of
the next best’. While the motivations of
voters might be shifting, the makeup of
the candidate pool they have to choose
from is not.
Decoding State
Election Results
In politics, there are no permanent
friends or foes, only permanent inter-
ests. Elections in five Indian states in
December 2018, six months before the
term of the 16th Lok Sabha ends, are a
timely expression of public opinion on
the issues to be addressed by political
parties – both all-India and regional –
in a diverse democratic nation that is
riven by majoritarian politics, ignoring
serious issues such as economic in-
equalities and rural--urban divides. In
Political Mood in
Hindi HeartlandAlthough preparations for upcoming Lok Sabha elections are making its ripples
felt throughout India, Hindi heartland, it seems, is experiencing maximum ups and
downs with major parties flexing their muscles to reach a proposition where they
can claim a piece of throne at Delhi.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi Showering Blessings To Bihar
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar

a society where the
majority choose
charisma over char-
acter, democracy
does more harm than
good to the actual
progress of that soci-
ety.
If the results re-
minded all-India par-
ties of the
consequences of ig-
noring state-specific
issues, they provided
regional parties an
unexpected reality
check on their poten-
tial to make, or un-
make, victors. One
key takeaway is that all-India parties would have to
negotiate political space with regional parties to
make substantive electoral gains.
BJP’s Crusade
The BJP since assuming power after the 2014 gen-
eral election, in alliance with its partners, went on to
wrest Haryana, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Maha-
rashtra and Jammu and Kashmir only to be outdone
by the Nitish Kumar-led grand alliance in Bihar. It
then went on to win Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Goa, Ma-
nipur and Uttarakhand. The meteoric rise of the BJP
across India threatened the survival of regional par-
ties. It is to be noted that all the present-day alliances
have come in to existence with only one aim, that is,
to stop Modi.
UP’s Election Analysis (2014)
In terms of vote share, BJP and its allies secured 43.3
per cent votes in 2014, whereas BSP+SP+RLD to-
gether bagged 42.65 per cent.
Last year’s by-poll results in the state also boosted
the alliance’s hopes that they can wrest a significant
number of seats from the BJP after winning Gorakh-
pur, Phulpur and Kairana seats.
Political maestros have understood that the SP--BSP
alliance will be a formidable challenge to Hindutva
politics, especially in UP, Bihar and Jharkhand,
where the BJP won 71 (out of 80 with 42.30% vote
share), 22 (out of 40 with 29.40% vote share) and
Jharkhand 12 (out of 14 with 40.10% vote share), re-
spectively, in parliamentary seats in the last general
elections. Therefore, if the BJP has to repeat its 2014
performance, its strategy would be to disturb the for-
mation of such a grand alliance. The BJP also knows
that in UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, there are not many
political parties with whom it can form an electoral
alliance. Therefore, to challenge the political alliance
between the opposition parties, it is working mainly
to consolidate and expand the broad social base that
had voted for the BJP in the earlier elections.
Rural Exasperation, Urban
Denudation and Internal
Grumbling
Most ground analyses of the reasons for the BJP’s
defeat in the current batch of heartland states suggest
that the rural economy has been hit severely by de-
monetisation, while losses in urban areas can be at-
tributed to the implementation of the Goods and
Services Act (GST) and the failure to create employ-
ment.
‘… building roads, houses and toilets or providing
access to electricity, LPG and broadband connectiv-
ity — isn’t enough…For rural voters, incomes count
as much, if not more. ‘Incomes’ not rising, due to
low crop prices and stagnating wages, has more than
offset any ‘asset’ gains in the recent period, which
Gearing for 2019 Lok Sabha Polls

ELECTION-2019
also probably explains the party’s heavy losses in the
three states it ruled, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and
Chhattisgarh’, explains journalist Harish
Damodaran, adding that ‘along with lower income
growth, farmers have also experienced deterioration
in terms of trade’.
In the post-demonetisation period, crop prices have
been more prone to falling than rising incomes under
stress. Investing in public and household assets with-
out creating jobs and incomes meant poor rural fam-
ilies were not in a position to pay for power or
refilling of gas cylinders.
More worryingly for the BJP, its erosion of support
seems to have spread to urban areas as well. This
shows that disenchantment with the BJP cuts across
demographic groups.
Voters Psyche
It is believed and has been thought that good eco-
nomics need not make for good politics in Bihar and
UP because voters regularly prioritise other factors -
- namely patronage, populism or parochialism --
when selecting their representatives. The result is
that even when governments perform in ways that
objectively improve the state of their economies, vot-
ers often reject, rather than reward, them at the ballot
box. On the contrary, the success of Indian politi-
cians depends on how voters evaluate them on issues
of a parochial nature, be it caste, religion, patronage
or clientelism. When it comes to winning elections,
the overall health of the economy is not perceived to
be the preeminent factor. Indians have traditionally
cared more about their own personal well-being than
the country’s broader macroeconomic health. Elec-
tion 2019 will be no exception.
Ram Mandir and Hindutva
Sharpening of communal and religious polarisation
is the only way through which the BJP could return
to power in Hindi heartland states and cut ‘Maha-
gathbandhan’ votes. Mob lynching, love jihad, cow
slaughter and ‘urban Naxals’all have proved helpful
in creating a suitable environment for creating reli-
gious divide. Now with the Ram temple, the BJP is
trying to build a national narrative in the fervent hope
that it would not remain confined to north India and
Hindi heartland but would also mobilise opinion in
its favour in the south too.
Trapped in a dilemma over the electoral utility of the
Ayodhya Ram Mandir card in the coming Lok Sabha
elections, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) recently post-
poned their campaign for building a grand Ram tem-
ple until the general elections are over.
In addition, voters do not seem to find the BJP’s re-
turn to a more religious nationalism-based agenda
compelling. In early 2017, after gaining power in the
large state of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP appointed a di-
BJP President Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi Reworking Mathematics

visive religious firebrand, Yogi Adityanath, as the
state’s chief minister. He set out on the national stage
this year and campaigned vigorously for the party in
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh across
the populous Hindi heartland. Although his own state
suffers from law and order problems, he became a
‘star campaigner’ elsewhere in India, delivering
speeches with ‘generous doses of Hindutva’ (Hindu
nationalism), according to one press account.
Priyanka Factor
Priyanka has some advantages in being perceived as
telegenic and charismatic. Its biggest impact will be
felt in terms of cadre marshalling and organizing. The
excitement and the enthusiasm of the ordinary Con-
gress worker as the road show snaked its way through
Lucknow was evident. It is too early to say whether
lifting of workers’ spirits will result in an improved
seat tally for the Congress. However, for a moribund
unit that was devoid of organisational strength,
strapped of cash and grassroots support, Priyanka’s
high-octane entry can’t be a bad thing. Priyanka’s
entry alone has ensured blanket media coverage for
the Congress.
Amalgamation in Bihar
Sources said the RJD, being the largest party in Bihar
assembly with 80 seats, wants 20 Lok Sabha seats and
may distribute the remaining 20 seats among other
coalition partners, including the Congress. ‘Our goal
is to stop the BJP from returning to power in 2019.
Seat adjustments will be discussed during the meeting
with all top leaders of the grand alliance in Bihar’,
said RJD spokesperson Bhai Birendra.
Sources said that the RJD may offer 10 seats to the
Congress, the RLSP may get five, the Left parties are
likely to get two seats and the other parties may get
one seat each.
The latest to join the grand alliance is Mukesh Sahni’s
Vikasheel Insan Party (VIP). Mr Sahni claims that he
rejected BJP’s offer of three seats and decided to join
the Mahagathbandhan after meeting RJD leader Te-
jashwi Yadav and speaking to Congress president
Rahul Gandhi on the phone.
In the last two years, Mr Sahni has also been organis-
ing rallies across Bihar to unite Nishad, Mallah and
Nonia communities which come under the extremely
backward caste (EBC). Sources said Mr Sahni, with
a sizeable support of the Nishad community, also
wants a ‘respectable’ seat share for his party.
He is the second former NDA ally to join the grand
alliance after RLSP chief Upendra Kushwaha.
According to political analysts, the Muslim--Yadav
combination, which was floated by LaluYadav in the
1990s, has now transformed into Muslim,Yadav, Ma-
hadalit, Nishad and Koeri after Mr Manjhi, Mr Kush-
waha and Mr Sahni entered the alliance fold.
In Bihar, the Mahagathbandhan might thwart the BJP
from repeating its 2014 performance even as it suffers
teething trouble in coming up with a seat-sharing for-
mula that is acceptable to all its allies.
The NDA in 2014, which included the Lok Janshakti
Party and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, had won 31
seats in Bihar and contributed significantly to NDA’s
Lok Sabha tally. However, this time around, there has
been a 180 degrees change in alliances and loyalties
in the state, which renders the 2014 data of little use.
For instance, the Janata Dal (United), as part of the
Mahagathbandhan, contested on 23 seats at the time,
but it could win only two. The RLSD and HAM, both
NDA allies, are part of the Mahagathbandhan this
time around.
However, the BJP may still have a chance in Bihar as
the saffron party has taken a step back to
accommodate its allies, whereas the seat-sharing talks
have exposed the chinks in the armour of the Maha-
gathbandhan.
Reports suggest that the BJP is ready to cede electoral
space to allies in Bihar. The BJP and the JD(U) will
contest 17 seats each, while the LJP will contest 6 out
of the total 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
Conclusion
The lessons of recently concluded state elections in
five states will apply to the national landscape ahead
and particularly in Hindi heartland. Momentum mat-
ters: A year ago, political mandarins in India would
have said the BJP was near-certain to win re-election
in 2019, with the margin of victory the only uncer-
tainty. Today, no one is sure of BJP making to the fin-
ishing line alone.
When voters cast their vote, they do not necessarily
vote their caste. Social biases remain entrenched in
India, but the transmission of those biases into the po-
litical domain is imperfect and may be weakening.
In short, a government’s record matters. If the BJP
cannot explain how their policies have improved peo-
ple’s lives, then voters may very well look to someone
else.
nnnn

POLITICS: UTTAR PRADESH
By NPM Bureau
P
ost announcing an alliance for the upcom-
ing Lok Sabha polls, the Samajwadi Party
(SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
have finally made consensus on seat shar-
ing, putting an end to speculations that the
coalition was reconsidering its posturing in order to ac-
commodate the Congress, after the Rahul-led party
brought Priyanka Gandhi into the political arena. Post-
poll alliances, however, cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, Lok Sabha polls are expected to be
held in April and May 2019 to constitute the 17th Lok
Sabha.
However, Congress had announced its decision to con-
test all 80 Uttar Pradesh seats in the upcoming Lok
Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh and said it was willing
to accommodate secular forces.
In a statement, SP President Akhilesh Yadav and BSP
chief Mayawati announced that while the SP will con-
test on 37 seats, the BSP will fight on 38. Amethi and
Rae Bareli -- the pocket boroughs of the Gandhi family
-- have been left for the Congress.
Two seats were initially allocated to the Rashtriya Lok
Dal (RLD), but now SP has given one more seat from
its quota to Ajit Singh's party.
According to the list, the SP will contest from Kairana,
Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal, Etah, Ghaziabad,
Hathras, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Badaun, Bareilly, Pilib-
hit, Kheri, Hardoi, Unnao, Lucknow, Etawah, Kannauj,
Kanpur, Jhansi, Banda, Kaushambi, Phulpur, Alla-
habad, Barabanki, Faizabad, Bahraich, Gonda, Ballia,
Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Azamgarh,
Chandauli, Varanasi, Mirzapur and Robertsganj parlia-
mentary seats.
Out of these, the SP had won Kannauj, Azamgarh,
Mainpuri, Badaun and Firozabad in the 2014 Lok
Topple the Topper
Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party President Mayawati

Sabha elections, retained Mainpuri in a by-election and
subsequently wrested Gorakhpur and Phulpur from the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in by-polls.
The BSP, which had won no seat in 2014, will fight
from Saharanpur, Bijnor, Nagina, Amroha, Meerut,
Bulandshahr, Gautam Budh Nagar, Aligarh, Agra,
Fatehpur Sikri, Aonla, Shahjahanpur, Dhaurahra, Sita-
pur, Misrikh, Mohanlalganj, Sultanpur, Pratapgarh,
Farrukhabad, Akbarpur, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Fatehpur,
Ambedkarnagar, Qaiserganj, Shrawasti, Dumariyaganj,
Basti, Sant Kabeernagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Lalganj,
Ghosi, Salempur, Jaunpur, Machhali Shahar, Bhadohi
and Ghazipur.
The three seats left for the RLD are Muzaffarnagar,
Mathura and Baghpat. Presently, it holds the Kairana
seat which it won in a by-poll.
Mulayam Questions Logic
But its seems that SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav
is not happy as he said that the party he founded 27
years back had been given a raw deal after both parties
announced the seat allocation formula for the upcom-
ing Lok Sabha elections.
Addressing party workers, the former Chief Minister
questioned the logic behind the seat sharing and said
that the SP should have got more seats than the BSP.
‘SP has more political muscle’, he said and alleged that
party candidates were being weakened by such deci-
sions.
He also predicted that had the party decided to go
alone, it would yield better results. Mulayam also said
that he had formed an SP government thrice in the state
due to the inner strength of the party and the hard work
of its workers.
After a bitter and long-standing rivalry of 25 years, the
BSP--SP had patched up and arrived at an electoral al-
liance for the Lok Sabha elections. They had also tested
the waters in the by-polls for three parliamentary seats
earlier and had successfully defeated the ruling BJP in
its stronghold Kairana, Phulpur and Gorakhpur. The
formal alliance was announced on January 12.
Mulayam, insiders say, was particularly miffed as the
SP got just 37 seats though it had won 5 seats in the
2014 parliamentary elections while the BSP had drawn
a blank.
By this logic, a close aide of the former Union Defence
Minister told, the SP stood to gain but gave in to pres-
sure from Mayawati.
The SP founder, who was pushed to the sidelines of de-
cision making in his party in December 2016, had re-
cently embarrassed his son and party chief Akhilesh
Yadav by stating that he wish that Narendra Modi re-
turns as prime minister again. This, at a time when his
son was trying to cobble together an alliance to stop
the Modi juggernaut, had stunned many in the party
and left them red-faced.
D-Y-M Strategy
The Dalit, Muslim and Yadav votes make a killing
combination to take on the BJP -- which is seen largely
as being an upper-caste vote bank beneficiary.
As far back as 1956, Dalit icon B.R. Ambedkar and so-
cialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia discussed the pos-
sibility of an alliance of Dalits and backward castes. In
Uttar Pradesh, it finally happened in 1993, at the height
of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement, and prevented
the BJP from forming government in the state.
The alliance ended in recriminations in June 1995. Un-
ruly SP workers barged into a guesthouse in Lucknow,
vandalised it, beat up Mayawati and hurled casteist
slurs at the BSP leadership. It was at that point that
Mayawati swore never to ally with the SP ever.
However, the equations changed after the SP witnessed
a generational shift, with Akhilesh succeeding his fa-
ther Mulayam Singh as party chief and reaching out to
Mayawati.
A Peek into Past
In 2014, the BJP had bagged 71 seats, surpassing its
highest tally of 58 seats in the state which had cata-
pulted the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under
the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee to power in
1998, and its partner Apna Dal clinched two seats.
Led by a whirlwind campaign by its prime ministerial
candidate Narendra Modi, the party improved its all-
time high vote share of 36.49% by taking it to over
42%.
In 2014 elections, RLD's tally was reduced to zero with
its chief Ajit Singh losing from his family bastion
Baghpat and his son Jayant Chaudhary suffering defeat
at the hands of politician-turned-actor Hema Malini
(BJP) in Mathura. Its performance in the 2009 polls
was slightly better -- it won three seats.
Significantly, five Congress ministers -- Prakash
Jaiswal (coal), Salman Khurshid (external affairs), Jitin
Prasad (minister of state for human resources develop-
ment), R.P.N. Singh (minister of state for home) and
Pradeep Aditya Jain (minister of state for rural devel-
opment) -- were ousted from Kanpur, Farrukhabad,
Dhaurahra, Kushinagar and Jhansi, respectively.

POLITICS: UTTAR PRADESH
On the other hand, Mayawati's BSP, which had won 19
seats in 2009, failed to open its account in 2014 elec-
tions despite having bagged 19 per cent of the total
votes polled.
SP, which won 22 per cent of the votes, had to remain
content with just five seats in 2014.
Why Mayawati Snubs Congress
By not making the Congress part of the alliance,
Mayawati has taken a calculated political risk. With her
determination not to cede any political space to the
Congress, the BSP supremo is aiming to achieve twin
objectives. First, her sight is set on the prime ministe-
rial chair, and this is only possible by winning maxi-
mum number of seats from the UP. Second, she has to
keep the Congress down to strengthen her bargaining
strength.
Insiders, who have
been part of the negoti-
ations between the two
parties, say Akhilesh
Yadav was initially
very keen to keep the
Congress within the al-
liance. But Mayawati
convinced Akhilesh
Yadav of the futility of
bringing the country’s
oldest party in.
Mayawati’s argument
for keeping the Congress out was that while the BSP
and SP vote is transferable, the Congress vote is gen-
erally not transferred to its alliance partners. The Con-
gress benefits from alliance. The other argument she
extended was that if the Congress becomes strong in
UP, then we (SP and BSP) would be weakened in the
process. She is understood to have told the SP leader
that it is easier to negotiate with the weak than with the
strong.
Mayawati further said that the voter base of the Con-
gress and the BJP was common in many ways as both
were preferred by upper castes. If the Congress was
contesting large number of seats, then it will eat into
the BJP votes, benefitting the SP--BSP candidates.
Notwithstanding Mayawati’s set of arguments for not
including the Congress in the opposition alliance, the
BSP--SP tie-up has given a breather to the BJP in the
State, as a triangular contest is far better for the saffron
party than a direct one-to-one fight.
In direct fight, there is a possibility for the BJP’s tally
to come down to about a dozen seats from the 71 that
it had won in 2014. But in a largely triangular contest,
the ruling party at the Centre as well as in the State can
expect to bag two dozen odd Lok Sabha seats.
In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s tally in the
lower house from UP had come down from 29 to 10,
while the SP had won 35 and the BSP 19 seats. In the
2009 general elections, the Congress increased its
strength to 21 from 9 members it had in 2004, while
the BJP’s tally stood at 10. The BSP had 20 and the SP
23 MPs in that Lok Sabha.
For the Congress, whether winning 21 seats in 2009
was a one-time phenomenon or not is impossible to
guess. In 2014, the Congress came second in six Lok
Sabha seats -- Saharanpur, Ghaziabad, Lucknow, Kan-
pur, Barabanki and Kushinagar. These seats were won
by the BJP. The SP
and BSP came only
behind the Congress
in all the six seats.
The strength of the
BSP--SP alliance, in
which the RLD is also
a minor partner, is pri-
marily its caste iden-
tity. In an emotive
election or in a wave
kind of situation, caste
barriers are often bro-
ken as the electorate
tends to rise above caste considerations to vote for a
cause or party or a leader.
This type of voting pattern was evident in 1971, 1984,
1989, 1999 and 2014 general elections. In the absence
of a wave or a definite emotive issue, voting takes place
along caste lines.
The voting behavior of the Muslim electorate is also
going to be very crucial in determining the outcome of
large number of Lok Sabha constituencies. By keeping
the Congress out of the alliance, Mayawati seems to
have posed a serious dilemma for the minority com-
munity, particularly the Muslims, who comprise more
than 19 per cent of the state’s population.
Uttar Pradesh may or may not give yet another Prime
Minister, but it is definite that the state will play a cru-
cial role in deciding who is going to lead the country
for next five years.
nnnn

POLITICS: DELHI
By NPM Bureau
P
utting all speculations at rest, it is now of-
ficial that that the Congress and the Aam
Aadmi Party (AAP) will contest sepa-
rately in the upcoming Lok Sabha elec-
tions in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana as
AAP head and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal
said that Congress has ‘more or less’ ruled out an al-
liance with his party.
Among many reasons to not ally with the Kejriwal-
led party, the main that is doing the rounds in political
circle is that the
former Delhi
Pradesh Congress
C o m m i t t e e
(DPCC) chief
Ajay Maken had
strongly opposed
an electoral tie-up
between the two
parties, along with
the opposition
from Punjab Chief
M i n i s t e r
Amarinder Singh
and Delhi Con-
gress chief Sheila
Dikshit.
However, the con-
gress’decision to go alone seems to be backed by the
result of MCD polls conducted in June 2017, in which
Congress' vote share rose to 21.28%, while the AAP
bagged around 26%, less than half of what it got in
2015 Assembly polls.
Amid all the political activities, Congress seems to
have forgotten 2013 assembly humiliation it faced at
the hands of Kejriwal who defeated Dikshit in her
New Delhi constituency while targeting Dikshit for
the alleged corruption by her party and government.
In polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged 31
seats and secured 33.07% vote share, while the Con-
gress got 24.55% with 8 seats. The AAP, in its debut
performance, got 29.49% vote and bagged 28 seats.
Similarly, in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP swept the
elections scoring 7--0. The AAP came second, while
the Congress stood third.
In 2015 assembly elections, the AAP swept the polls
by winning 67 seats with a vote share of 54.34%,
while the Congress drew a blank and registered only
9.65% vote share. However, the BJP's vote share re-
mained more or less the same.
However, theAAP has been consistently losing its na-
tional appeal across the elections and that too at a very
fast pace as
party attempted
to expand its
reach outside
New Delhi but
failed again as it
drew a blank in
recently con-
cluded assembly
polls in four
states as the
NOTA bagged
more votes than
the party’s can-
didates.
In Madhya
Pradesh, the
AAP fielded 208
candidates, and a majority of them had their deposits
fortified. Its chief ministerial candidate and Narmada
Bachao Andolan member Alok Agarwal bagged 823
votes as against 29,789 garnered by a Congress can-
didate and 29,396 by a BJP candidate from the
Bhopal Dakshin Paschim seat.
The party also fielded candidates on 85 seats in
Chhattisgarh, on 41 in Telangana and on 142 in Ra-
jasthan.
Amid all the make-or-break political activities going
across nation, it will be interesting to witness how the
Kejriwal-led party fares in the upcoming elections.
nnnn
Congress Leaves AAP
in the Cold
The Making of Unmaking

POLITICS: TAMIL NADU
By NPM Bureau
W
ith the election fervour rapidly
gripping whole nation, political
parties are leaving no stone un-
turned to achieve maximum ad-
vantages by playing
make-or-break politics. Latest entry in the list is the
‘mega alliance’ formalized by the ruling All India
Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in
Tamil Nadu, Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) Desiya
Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the 2019 Lok Sabha
elections. The national party will be contesting from 5
seats in the state, DMDK will be contesting from 4
seats while the PMK who has been promised a Rajya
Sabha seat, will be contesting from 7.
The AIADMK, which won a whopping 37 seats out of
39 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, will be con-
testing from 27 seats this time or less if talks fructify,
G.K. Vasan's Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) is also
likely to be part of the alliance.
Under the deal, the PMK would support AIADMK in
the by-polls to be held in 21 Assembly constituencies
in Tamil Nadu. The result of these by-elections could
determine the future of the Edappadi Palaniswamy
(EPS) government, and with 6 seats out of the 21 being
in the heart of PMK territory where the party could
help decide the winner, the move by EPS and party co-
ordinator and deputy chief minister O. Panneerselvam
(OPS) to have the PMK on their side is seen as a smart
one.
In the present state assembly, the Congress and
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) have 99 seats
out of the 213 now present in the House. Thus, the 21
seats are crucial to the government's survival.
The Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly has a strength
of 235 members of whom 234 are democratically
elected using the First-past-the-post system. The re-
maining member is nominated as a representative of
the Anglo-Indian community.
On the other hand, challenging the AIADMK--BJP--
PMK alliance, the DMK formalized its alliance with
Congress–DMK Scare:
A U-Turn Waiting in South
Teaming at last phew!

the Congress. Of the ten seats allocated to Congress,
nine will be in Tamil Nadu and one in Puducherry.
The DMK could contest in roughly 20 seats, and the
remaining may go to allies such as the CPI, the
CPI(M), the IUML, Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and Thirumavalavan’s
Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).
Tough Choice for Tamil Nadu Voters
Tamil Nadu’s voters tend to go with one of the two main
Dravidian parties DMK andAIADMK, but not all elec-
tions produce a one-sided result. The last Lok Sabha
polls were clearly a wave election, with the DMK un-
able to open its account, though it got about 24 per cent
of the vote share. TheAIADMK, headed by the late Jay-
alalitha, romped home with 45 per cent of the vote share
and all but two of the 39 Lok Sabha seats.
However, the 2009 parliamentary polls were a closely
contested election, with the DMK vote share barely 2
per cent higher than the AIADMK’s. But that was
enough for the DMK to get 18 seats, double the tally
of the AIADMK. The Congress, allied with the DMK,
and benefitting from the relative popularity of the UPA
1 government, won eight seats.
The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) swept the
2004 polls, with the AIADMK failing to open its
score.
What Makes This Alliance Stronger
Under the deal between three parties, more than 12 sit-
ting AIADMK Lok Sabha members will not get party
tickets to contest fourth coming general elections in
state, and they might harm AIADMK, PMK and BJP
mega alliance and may join T.T.V. Dhinakaran'sAmma
Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) to contest in
Lok Sabha polls.
Going ahead, Dhinakaran becomes important for
Tamil Nadu politics and that’s bad news for the
AIADMK after victory in the by-elections to the RK
Nagar constituency.
The RK Nagar defeat relegates the
ruling party.
Last year, addressing party workers in his home dis-
trict of Theni in southern Tamil Nadu, Panneerselvam
had said he did not want any cabinet position, and con-
veyed this to Modi, but relented after the PM told him
to join the ministry headed by chief minister E.
Palaniswami.
‘During a courtesy meeting with the prime minister,
he suggested that the two sides can merge…he (Modi)
said you (Panneerselvam) could join to save the party’,
Panneerselvam had told party workers..
Last but not least, if Dhinakaran can replicate his RK
Nagar victory in Tamil Nadu, then he can do anything
in Tamil Nadu politics and prove to be a nightmare for
AIADMK, BJP, and PMK mega alliance.
nnnn
Both Stalin and Rahul have took over the leadership of their respective parties recently. But DMK and
Congress alliance go back to Karunanidhi and Sonia days.

POLITICS: JHARKHAND
By NPM Bureau
L
ike in many other states, Congress has
sealed its alliance in Jharkhand with the
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Jhark-
hand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) (JVM),
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Commu-
nist Party of India (CPI) for both the general and as-
sembly elections.
Out of Jharkhand’s 14 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress
will contest seven, the JMM four, the JVM two and
the RJD one seat.
Under the deal, Congress will lead
the opposition alliance in Jhark-
hand for the Lok Sabha polls and
contest more seats than any other
partner in the state, and JMM will
lead the opposition alliance in the
assembly polls also slated for this year.
However, the parties had not finalised the number of
seats to be contested by the alliance partners following
tussle among the Congress, the JVM and the CPI over
seat distribution.
Tussle over finalisation of constituencies is still delay-
ing the further process as Congress and the JVM are
both keen to contest from the Godda Lok Sabha con-
stituency, currently held by Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP)’s Nishikant Dubey.
According to sources, JVM chief Babulal Marandi is
adamant that Godda seat should go
to his close associate PradeepYadav.
The Congress, however, is not will-
ing to concede the seat that it counts
among one of its strongholds.
BJP Faces Tough
Challenge in Jharkhand
United opposition
may reduce BJP’s
tally to half.
Jharkhand Congress President Dr Ajay Kumar, National President Rahul Gandhi , JMM President
Hemant Soren and Party's In-Charge For Jharkhand R. P. N. Singh.

Reports are doing the rounds that Marandi’s position
is difficult. Marandi, whose 2014 poll debacles have
reduced his clout, can’t afford to lose Yadav, a strong
fundraiser with an army of loyalists.
Political arena is also rife with the news that the Con-
gress has offered JVM to fight from Chatra instead of
Godda. In addition, the other seat on offer is Kodarma,
which Marandi won twice in 2006 and 2009.
Not in a mood to soften its stand, the Congress has also
rejected the CPI’s demand for the Hazaribagh seat,
which is currently held by BJP leader and Union Min-
ister Jayant Sinha. The CPI candidate, Bhubneshwar
Prasad Mehta, has won the seat twice in and 1991 and
2004.
As per the report, CPI is also mulling on going it alone
in the Lok Sabha election if its demands are not met.
As it is known that this alliance can play a major role
in reviving Congress in the state, it should also be kept
in mind that Congress-led UPA had performed poorly
in the state in the past two general elections, winning
a solitary seat in 2009 and drawing a blank in 2014.
In 2004, the Congress had won 6 seats, the JMM 4,
the RJD 2 and the CPI one seat. In 2009, the BJP man-
aged to win 8 seats, the JMM 2, the Congress 1 and
the JVM(P) 1; the remaining two seats were won by
independent candidates.
But in the 2014 general elections, BJP won 12 of the
14 Lok Sabha seats in state. The Congress and its ally
JMM managed to win two constituencies. In the 2014
assembly election in Jharkhand, the JMM had won 19
seats in the 81-member house, while the Congress
bagged 6. The ruling BJP had come out victorious with
43 seats.
JMM and Congress Won Six
of Seven By-Polls
Opposition parties in the state claim that
there is strong anti-incumbency against the
BJP as JMM retained the Silli, Gomia and
Litipara assembly seats, while Congress re-
tained Panki and won Lohardaga and
Kolebira assembly seats in by-polls held
since 2015.
Interestingly, Enos Ekka, whose disqualification ne-
cessitated the by-poll, had been winning the Kolebira
seat since 2005. On the other hand, BJP won only
Godda seat. Since 2015, both the Congress and the
JMM have expanded or retained their constituencies
at BJP's expense. nnnn
Jharkhand Chief Minister Raghubar Das at Jan Choupal

POLITICS: MAHARASHTRA
By NPM Bureau
P
roving again that promises are meant to
be broken, Shiv Sena and Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) have announced a tie-
up for the upcoming Lok Sabha and Ma-
harashtra Assembly elections, taking a U
turn on Shiv Sena President Uddhav Thackeray’s
stance that his party won’t be part of the NDA al-
liance in 2019 Lok Sabha early this year.
Under the deal, the BJP will contest on 25 seats and
Shiv Sena on 23 of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharash-
tra. The two parties will contest equal number of
seats, along with their other allies, in elections for
the 288-member state Assembly, due this year.
The BJP remained conciliatory and repeatedly
reached out to its estranged ally. Last week, Maha-
rashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis visited
Uddhav Thackeray at his home. The Sena had re-
portedly insisted on the chief ministerial post and
wanted the same formula as in 1995, in which it con-
tested 169 of 288 seats while the BJP was given a
smaller share, 116. The Sena had then won 73 seats
and the BJP 65.
The Sena has apparently softened its stance on seat-
sharing by agreeing to contest fewer seats than the
BJP in the Lok Sabha polls.
In the last national election of 2014, the BJP con-
tested 26 and the Sena 22 of Maharashtra's 48 seats.
The state sends the most number of lawmakers to
parliament after Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 seats.
llies for nearly three decades, the relationship be-
tween the two parties had soured over seat-sharing
for the 2014 state elections, after which the two
fought separately. The BJP won 123 of 288 assembly
seats and the Sena 63. The split verdict had forced
the two parties to join hands to form government.
Since then, the Sena has not missed a single chance
to target the BJP and has virtually been the opposi-
tion on most scores. Over the past few months, the
comments grew increasingly belligerent as the Sena
said it would either be the big brother in the Maha-
rashtra equation or go solo.
Tough Road Ahead for
BJP and Shiv Sena
Shiv Sena Chief Uddhav Thackeray, BJP President Amit Shah and Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra
Fadnavis at Joint Press Conference After Sealing Deal For Lok Sabha Polls.

After sealing a seat-sharing pact with the BJP, the
Shiv Sena again targeted Narendra Modi’s govern-
ment over the Pulwama incident, and asked the NDA
government not to behave in a way that would fuel
allegations that it was trying to wage a war to influ-
ence poll results.
Riots and terror attacks should not be used for ‘po-
litical gains’, the Shiv Sena said in an editorial in the
party mouthpiece ‘'Saamana’'. Students from Kash-
mir being ill-treated over such incidents could spell
more trouble for the government, it warned.
Without taking names, the Uddhav Thackeray-led
party said, ‘Sometime back there were political al-
legations that Prime Minister Narendra Modi could
wage a small-scale war to win elections... The rulers
should not behave in a way that these allegations
gather strength’.
Referring to the February 14 Pulwama bombing in
which more than 40 CRPF personnel were killed, the
Marathi daily said, ‘The country is still boiling over
the terror attack, hence some may face criticism.
(But) riots and terror attacks should not be used for
political gains’.
Further targeting the government over the Pulwama
incident, it said, ‘Our intelligence officials can trace
an e-mail purportedly referring to a threat to the
prime minister's life but they fail to stop terror attack
on a convoy’.
Before 2014, PM Modi and Rashtriya Swayamsevak
Sangh held the Manmohan Singh-led government re-
sponsible for every terror attack in the country. ‘Then
it should be understood if someone expects the cur-
rent prime minister to uproot terrorism from the
country’, it said Although the two parties have
reached a consensus on sear-sharing for the upcom-
ing elections, it will be interesting to see how the
equation works in reality.
nnnn

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
By Deepshikha Singh
I
f you are a homebuyer, there is good news for
you as the GST Council has decided to lower
rates on under-construction housing to 5 per-
cent from 12 percent and affordable units to 1
percent from 8 percent without claiming the
input tax credit, effective April 1.
The decision is expected to boost demand and in-
crease sales of under-construction properties as well
as simplify tax structure and compliance for builders.
The move is also in line with the government's vision
of 'Housing for all by 2022'.
The decision will benefit buyers who are currently on
construction-linked payment schemes. Data from
property consulting form shows there are 5.88 lakh
under-construction homes lying unsold in India's top
7 cities. Of these, 34% are priced below Rs 40 lakh
alone.
The decision is likely to benefit home buyers, real es-
tate developers in select cities, and housing finance
companies (HFCs).
The Council also cut GST rates on affordable housing
to 1 per cent from the current 8 per cent and expanded
the scope of affordable housing to those costing up to
Rs 45 lakh and measuring 60 sq metre in metros and
90 sq metre in non-metro cities.
“In a big relief to home buyers, the GST Council
slashed tax rates on under-construction housing prop-
erties to 5 per cent without input tax credit, from the
existing 12 per cent, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley
said.
Currently, the GST is levied at 12 per cent on pay-
ments made for under-construction properties or
ready-to-move-in flats where completion certificate
has not been issued at the time of sale.
However, builders will not be able to claim input tax
credit (ITC) under the new GST rates. "This (GST re-
duction) decision will certainly give boost to con-
struction sector," added Jaitley.
With regard to lotteries, the GST Council, however,
deferred its decision with Jaitley saying that the
Group of Ministers (GoM) will meet again to discuss
the proposal. Currently, state run lotteries attract 12
per cent GST, while state-authorised ones attract 28
per cent.
After GST council decision, Real estate players and
National President, National Real Estate Develop-
ment Council (NAREDCO) have welcomed the re-
duction in the goods and services tax (GST) rates.
Here’s what the realty majosr, NAREDCO have to
Reduced GST: Inching
Towords your Dream House
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley chairing the GST Council Meeting.

say to about reduction in the goods and services tax
(GST) rates.
RK Arora, Chairman, Supertech Ltd.
As one of the largest real estate companies in the
country, we welcome the reduction in the GST rates
applicable on under-construction properties to 5 per-
cent, from 12 percent earlier, by the Goods and Serv-
ices Tax Council. Further, the fact that now,
affordable housing projects will attract 1 percent tax.
This will provide a much needed impetus to the real
estate market that is facing severe liquidity shortages.
No new home buyers can go ahead with their plans
much more easily. However, it is disappointing that
the council has chosen to not allow developers to
claim input tax credit. The real estate sector is cur-
rently in a very poor shape and needs significant help
from the government to finish current projects and
grow at the rate that is needed for the economy as a
whole.
The Indian real estate sector is one of the most im-
portant for the economy and GDP. The move of the
GST council to reduce the GST to 5% for under con-
struction houses and houses yet to get completion cer-
tificates would have significantly helped the sector
prospects in the coming year. The sector is slowly
coming back to normal growth rates after taking mas-
sive hits with demonetisation over the last two years.
GST was introduced to replace the cascading and
multi-layered taxation system with a unified tax
which was expected to not just simplify the systems
in place but also improve adherence. Implementation
of GST marginally brought down construction costs
but affected luxury residential and commercial real
estate significantly. However, taxes like stamp duty,
property tax were not subsumed under GST causing
home buyers to pay higher amounts for the same
homes. It is imperative that the government remove
the stamp duty and reduce the GST rate applicable,
especially keeping in mind the housing for all target
of 2022.
Khushru Jijina, Managing Director, Piramal
Capital & Housing Finance
GST council meet has granted a big relief to the In-
dian Real Estate Sector. The highly awaited decision
to lower GST on under-construction homes will ease
some of the uncertainty around the real estate sector.
Reduced GST, stricter regulations and allied reforms are cleaning up the sector and paving the way to benefit
reasonably the property buyers and developers.

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
The move is expected to stimulate demand
within India’s growing urban middle class
and boost sales. The tax reduction led price
correction would be beneficial for both de-
velopers and end-consumers and there
should not be any major dent in tax revenues
as sales pick up. The current move is in line
with our expectations from the Government
to revive the real estate sector which plays
an important role in the Nation’s growth and
employment generation.
Madhusudhan G, Chairman and MD,
Sumadhura Group
The approved reduction in the levy on under-
construction homes and the raised threshold
for affordable housing by the GST Council
is largely seen as a welcome move by the in-
dustry, especially for the home-buyers seg-
ment.As pointed out by our finance minister,
the move will certainly make housing afford-
able for middle class, neo-middle class and
aspirational class. However, in order to fulfill
the government's mission of ‘Housing for all
by 2022’, the ITC (input tax credit) I opine should
continue or else it is likely to put the entire tax burden
on developers hitting the real estate down further.
Dr Niranjan Hiranandani National President,
National Real Estate Development Council
(NAREDCO).
Industry lauds the GST rate cut on real estate to 5%on
Non-affordable and 1% on affordable housing with-
out Input tax credit as a welcomed and positive move
which brings a big relief to the home buyers and help
to narrow down the demand mismatch gap. This an-
nouncement gives an impetus to the affordable hous-
ing and enthuse homebuyers to close the sale deals.
The GST rate on cement has not been reduced as was
expected, at 28 per cent it remains among the highest
taxed inputs for construction – and there will be no
input tax credit, so developers will face a challenging
time. Also, if the announcement was ‘with immediate
effect’, we would have seen sales of residential real
estate units in the current financial year; the w.e.f. 01
April aspect means we will see rise in sales figures
only in the next financial year.
Parveen Jain, NAREDCO Vice Chairman & CMD
Tulip Infratech
The slashing of GST rate from 8% to 1% for Afford-
able Housing which cost upto Rs 45 lakh is a good
move which shall give a big relief to the Home buyers
and shall give a boost to the Real estate sector. The
other measure taken which is slashing of GST rate
from 12% to 5% on Housing under construction but
withdrawal of benefit of ITC ( Input tax credit) has
the apprehension that the same may become the part
of the cost, culminating in the rise of sale prices and
may hinder the sale of the under construction hous-
ing. Now home buyers may prefer only Ready to
move in homes as GST is not levied upon them.
Manoj Gaur, MD, Gaurs Group and VP, CREDAI
National
GST council’s decision to reduce GST on affordable
housing to 1% and of under construction properties
to 5% from 12% is a wellcome step for the entire sec-
tor. The recommendations are in sync with govern-
ment’s push for housing for all and also for the
ongoing projects. These steps would surely ease up
buying for home seekers, augmenting the demand in
all segments.

Pradeep Aggarwal, Founder & Chairman, Signa-
ture Global and Chairman, National Council on
Affordable Housing, ASSOCHAM
The recommendations from the GST council is a
major step towards housing for all. It’s a big step to-
wards a better future of the masses. We applaud the
step of reducing GST to 1% for affordable; to be pre-
cise any unit costing less than 45 lacs and smaller than
60 sq. Meter in metro and 90 sq. Meter in non- metro
which again is very thoughtful. This is a major boost
for middle & neo class segment which actually are the
masses.
Kamal Taneja, MD, TDI Infracorp
The reduction in GST is welcoming as it will benefit
parts of NCR such as Kundli which will see fresh
sales. Applicable GST at 1 percent for all properties
upto 45 lacs and carpet of 90 Sqm will cover majority
of existing inventory and fresh launches.
Deepak Kapoor, Director, Gulshan Hone and For-
mer President, CREDAI Western UP
GST reductions are one of the biggest steps after
budget. This a major boost to the entire sector. The
middle along with the neo- segment of home buyers
will benefit largely. We can expect demand going up
soon for under construction projects, which
can surely bring positivity in the entire sector.
Amit Modi, VP CREDAI western UP and
Director ABA corp
Government announcement on reducing GST
from 12% to 5% on real estate housing does
make housing affordable on paper but practi-
cally it will increase the construction cost in
short term as new regulation doesn’t allow de-
velopers to take input tax credits which even-
tually offset the costs added in final price of
the house.
Hence we do believe that there has to be ra-
tionalization of the inputs cost by reducing tax
levied on raw materials used in real estate con-
struction especially raw materials eg Cement
and Steel that significantly contribute towards
the cost of making real estate.
With this announcement even though home-
buyers will pay less tax on there real estate
purchase, but the over all cost of housing will
increase in the absence of cost offsetting input
tax credits and due to high cost of raw materi-
als for construction.
Ankur Dhawan, Chief Investment Officer,
PropTiger
This is a very good news for home buyers, not only it
reduces taxation for them but also makes it simpler.
Now buyers need not worry about input tax credit and
anti profiteering authority. For developers, it will re-
quire recalculation of pricing if they had assumed cer-
tain input tax credit while setting prices post GST era.
Like restaurants we might see some price increase by
developers as well.
Amit Raheja, CMD, Wealth Clinic
GST of 1 per cent for affordable housing down from
8 per cent and area of 90 sq m for non-metros will be
a big boost for the real estate in these areas. An area
of approx 1200 sq ft is a comfortable space and people
will lap up such offerings really fast after GST Council
brought down the rates.
Dhiraj Jain, Director, Mahagun India
GST reductions are a major boost to entire sector. Post
budget it’s another major steps towards pushing the
sector. Undergoing projects will surely see a major
boost along with homes under 45 lacs. This is going

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
to majorly benefit the satellite towns which has a
major demand from middle and neo segment of
buyer”
LC Mittal, Director, Motia Group
In last few years, affordable housing is playing a
major role in booming up the sector and Government
is helping in the best way they can. Reducing GST
on affordable housing from 5% to 1% is a big deci-
sion post the union budget. Also, decreasing GST on
under construction property from 12% to 5% will
also attract the buyers to come forward and buy the
property. End users will
get direct benefit on cost
and this will definitely
boost the residential real
estate market.
Ashok Gupta, CMD,
Ajnara India Ltd.
The decision by GST
council today, is a big
step for home buyers and
it will help them to buy
property at more afford-
able rates now. Decreas-
ing GST to 1% on houses
with carpet area under 60
sq. mt. in metro cities and
90 sq. mt. in non metro
cities is a major decision for mid and lower segment
home buyers. This announcement will attract more
and more buyers to buy their dream home.
Kushagr Ansal, Director, Ansal Housing & Pres-
ident, CREDAI Haryana
Real estate market of Tier II cities are banking a lot
on affordable housing. From central to state govern-
ment everyone is launching different schemes to
cater mid and lower segment of the society. An-
nouncement of reducing GST from 5% to 1% on
houses below the carpet area of 90 sq. mt. in non
metro cities is a wise decision. It is a welcome move
by the GST council and realty sector of tier II cities
will definitely get upward push from this.
Vikas Bhasin, CMD, Saya Group
It is much-needed respite by the GST Council for the
buyers. Many home buyers were waiting for the time
when they can save some money on their home and
this is the perfect time for that. Given the fact that
real estate prices have already bottomed out, the de-
crease in GST on under construction and affordable
housing will make these buyers come out and take a
final decision on buying a home.
Nipun Gaba, CEO, Fairwealth Group
The announcement by GST council on reducing
GST rates is great move for affordable segment buy-
ers. Reducing GST to 1% on non metro cities like
Bhiwadi will help developers to sell houses at more
affordable rates now.
Also, buyers were focus-
ing more on ready to
move in properties, but
now GST on under con-
struction properties is
also reduced to 5% from
12% and it will attract
buyers to buy under con-
struction properties too.
Undoubtedly if is a win-
win move for both buy-
ers and developers.
Rajesh Goyal, CMD,
RG Group and Vice
President, CREDAI
NCR
The announcement of reducing GST on affordable
housing by GST council is a great move and it will
give boost to affordable housing segment. However,
it may increase the cost also as the benefit on input
tax credit will not be provided. The government the
working hard for realty sector and we appreciate
their move.
Harvinder Singh Sikka, MD, Sikka Group
A trend was witnessed in recent past that under con-
struction projects were going through a slow phase
of sale. With the latest decision the boost to sales is
provided by the authorities and soon we will see the
real estate market move towards an era when the
projects will be sold within a few days of their an-
nouncement. Of course, this will depend on the cred-
ibility of the developer and the location of the
project.
Dhiraj Bora, GM, Corporate Communication
The move to reduce GST also in
line with the government's vision
of 'Housing for all by 2022'.

Last four years have seen many steps being taken by
the government to help real estate sector. The biggest
of them being the RERA and after that the reduction
in GST is going to be the game changer. Having said
that there is still scope for some more amendments if
we want to see an India that has houses for all. We
hope that in near future government will take steps to
provide industry status to the sector so that the devel-
opers can fulfil the housing dreams of billions of peo-
ple effectively.
Sanjay Dutt, Chairman,
FICCI Real Estate Com-
mittee and MD and CEO
TATA Housing and
TATA Realty and Infra-
structure Ltd.
The government has very
timely assessed the need
of the hour. The customers
needed this relief. It will
help unlock value from
under construction proj-
ects, which is critical to re-
store confidence in the
developers as much as the
customers. He further
added that the extension of
definition to housing
prices within Rs 45 lakh
will lift sales in this segment now falling in the afford-
able category across cities and help customers as well
as developers not to mention encourage lenders allo-
cate or make available more capital for this segment.
The input tax credit is critical for the developers and
many would get hit. The Government should recon-
sider this aspect, also the affordable segment will gain
much needed focus with this policy.
He also expressed the need of similar decision on re-
ducing the GST on Cement from 28% to single digits
as it directly impacts the affordability of houses.
Rajeev Piramal, Co-Chairman, FICCI Real Estate
Committee and Vice Chairman and Managing Di-
rector, Peninsula Land.
GST council's decision on reducing the tax rate on
under-construction homes to 5% and significantly
slashing the rate on affordable homes to 1% from 8%
is a win-win situation for both developers and home
buyers. The government's decision on expanding the
scope of affordable housing is in sync with its vision
of 'Housing for all by 2022'. We believe this move will
encourage home buyer sentiments and will signifi-
cantly boost the demand for affordable homes.
Rajeev Talwar, NAREDCO Chairman
While a lot is still to be done, lowering of GST rate
will definitely boost sales of houses and attract invest-
ments into the housing
segment.
Parveen Jain, NAREDCO
Vice Chairman
GST on cement is still 28
percent, which is ex-
tremely high and impact
property prices. Under
new GST rate, no input
tax credit is available to
developers, so a lower
GST on cement and steel
will further help in lower-
ing down the prices and
impetus the demand for
housing. “High cost of ce-
ment will only pinch them
further and have impact
on housing price. This
needs to be rectified or re-
vised at the earliest.
Brig. R R Singh (Retd.), Director General,
NAREDCO
As per the revised definition of affordable houses, res-
idential units of carpet area of up to 90 square-metres
in non-metros and 60 square metres in metros will be
treated as affordable “While, revision in the definition
of affordable housing is welcomed, putting a uniform
price cap on this segment for metros and non-metros
may act as deterrent for metros. Due to this condition,
properties in metros measuring 60 sqmtr carpet area
may not reap affordable housing benefits because it
may fail to satisfy Rs 45 lakhs price tag as per ready
reckoner rate. Same will be the case in tier I & II
towns where revised carpet area is 90 sqmtr but it may
fail to satisfy the price tag of Rs. 45 lak.
nnnn
Currently, the GST is levied at
12 per cent on payments made
for under-construction properties
or ready-to-move-in flats where
completion certificate has not
been issued at the time of sale.

WELFARE
By Dr. Amrita Katara
W
ith election around the corner and
the opposition leaving no stone
unturned in defaming the central
government as well as in announc-
ing freebies to woo voters, in par-
ticular farmers, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also
announced a near-election-time rollout in the form of
PM-KISAN scheme.
Being the first central income transfer scheme for
farmers, it plans to
initially transfer a
total of Rs 4,000,
out of a total of Rs
6,000, in two Rs
2,000 tranches, in
the accounts of
small farmers just
before polls, re-
sulting in a new
debate whether it
is a real welfare
scheme intended
for the good of
farmers or yet an-
other scheme just
rolled out to influ-
ence farmers to
vote for the BJP in
large numbers in
the upcoming
election.
Irrespective of the fact that more than 70% of coun-
try’s population depend on agriculture the good
amount of technological advancement agriculture has
seen over decades, India’s agriculture depends on
monsoon. As bad monsoon forces hundreds of farmers
to commit suicide every year, Parliament also wit-
nesses many of its sessions being washed out sans any
productive discussion due to the blame game or poli-
tics that parties play to garner attention of farmer, the
largest base of voters in India.
Although there are a plenty of scheme for farmers wel-
fare, i.e., National Mission for Sustainable Agricul-
ture, Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana, Soil
Health Card Scheme, Pradhan Mantri Fasal BimaYo-
jana, etc., how these schemes are benefitting deep-
rooted farmers is still questionable. Despite Krishi
Mandi and MSP (Minimum Support Price) in place,
farmers are still cheated by mediators. Although gov-
ernment is providing E-marketing platform (National
Agriculture Market) at national level to save farmers
from mediators and
to get improved re-
muneration for their
produce moving to-
wards ‘One Nation
One Market’, they are
still not getting what
they deserve. It is
only at the time of
elections that the po-
litical parties make
efforts in making
policies for the better-
ment of farmers.
Recently launched
PM-KISAN scheme
is a part of govern-
ment promise to
farmers to double
their income till
2022, as per PM
Narendra Modi. Presently, our farmers need techno-
logically advanced machines and techniques to raise
their agricultural income and minimize their depend-
ency on monsoon more than what this current scheme
proposes. It is the high time that governments initiate
a culture to revise agriculture policies, increase fund
for R&D in agriculture sector and create provision for
advance and foreign training to small and marginal
farmers instead of giving them an amount to smile at
once and cry for whole year.
nnnn
PM-KISAN
The Welfare or just ‘Lollipop’?
India
A Farmer Working in Rice Field

National Political Mirror ~ March 2019 Issue

National Political Mirror ~ March 2019 Issue

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (19)

Similar to National Political Mirror ~ March 2019 Issue

Similar to National Political Mirror ~ March 2019 Issue (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

National Political Mirror ~ March 2019 Issue