Myanmar's govern

1. Myanmar
The Struggles for Legitimacy
မြန်ြာ

2. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား

3. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
Research
Question
How do Myanmar’s competing
governments use foreign
policy to bolster their own
legitimacy?

4. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
Hypotheses
1
Myanmar's National Unity Government employs an
outward facing strategy to achieve legitimacy from
western states and international organizations.
2
Myanmar's military junta employs an inward facing
strategy to achieve legitimacy from the majority of
the country's population.

5. Definition
of
Legitimacy
● Regime legitimacy can be obtained from two levels: one
is from the domestic level, another is from the
international level
● In terms of the domestic level, there are three specific
ways to get legitimacy for a regime:
1. Democratic Institution: free elections (such as the US)
2. Economic Prosperity: enrich the people (such as
China after the 1978 economic reform)
3. State Capacity: maintain social stability by imposing
functional state violence on the opposition (such as
China, Iran, and the military junta in Myanmar)
● In terms of the international level:
1. Recognition by the majority of the international
community (such as Qing dynasty during 20th century)

6. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
1962 Coup
• General Ne Win
• 50 years of military control

7. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
8888 Uprising

8. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
2008 Constitution
Guarantees:
• Permanent minimum of 25% of
parliamentary representation to the
military
• At least 75% approval of any changes to
the constitution
• No individual with a foreign spouse
and/or children can become president
• Rights not fully guaranteed to ethnic
minorities

9. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
2015:
Democratic
Experiment
•NLD wins majority
•Suu Kyi becomes “State
Counselor”
•Questions about democracy

10. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
2021 Coup
• Claims of Fraud
• Suu Kyi placed under house arrest

11. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
National Unity
Government
• Founded by democratically elected
legislators
• May 2021: People’s Defense Force
• September 2021: NUG announces
insurgency against Tatmadaw

12. Aung San Suu Kyi
1988

14. NLD: Seeking legitimacy for its rule
Party Leader international fame and influence
Aung San Suu Kyi：
Daughter of National father /nationalism
Oxford Graduate /an honorary degree
Nobel laureate with over 130 medals
A beacon for human rights/democracy icon
Party platform
The party advocates a non-violent movement towards
multi-party democracy ;
The party also claims to support human rights
(including broad-based freedom of speech), the rule
of law, and national reconciliation

15. NDL: Foreign Policy Statements
To follow an independent foreign policy and stay neutral..
To identify and cooperate with other countries on joint economic
enterprises of mutual benefit.(maintaining friendly relations with
countries all over the world）
To have close and strong relations with the UN, the World Bank, the
International Monetary Fund, and other such organizations.
Essence: Becoming more independent and active on the international
stage.

16. NLD: National Unity Government (NUG)
a government-in-hiding
The NUG’s cabinet line-up is manifestly and consciously diverse.It
includes representatives of the National League for Democracy,ethnic
minority insurgent groups, and various minor parties.
Union Values:
1. Democracy Rights, Gender Equality and basic Human Rights;
2. Equality and Self-Determination;
3. Collective Leadership;
4. Diversity, Social Harmony, Solidarity and Non-Discrimination; and
5. Protection of Minority Rights.
Conclusion：In order to gain recognition from western
nations and international organizations, Myanmar's National
Unity Government pursues an outward-looking approach.

17. Myint Swe
Government
Violent Suppression of
Pro-democratic
Movements
Institutional Corruption
Human Rights
Violations

18. Western
Sanctions
and
Isolation
On February 10, 2021,
President Biden issued
Executive Order 14014
“Blocking Property with
Respect to the Situation in
Burma” (“Burmese parties.
EO 14014”), which
provides for the imposition
of sanctions on certain

19. Failed
Regim
e
Domestically
●Falling Economy
●Anti-junta Protests
●Armed Resistance
Internationally
●Western Sanctions
●International
Nonrecognition

20. How to get
Legitimacy
?
To Domestic Audience
●Economic
Development?
●Stronger State
Capacity?
To International Audience
●Partnership Seeking

21. Inward
Strategy
By establishing partnerships with other countries
based on mutual interests, the junta regime can
receive sufficient foreign aid, which can be used to
develop the domestic economy, obtain more
revenue and help to strengthen the junta’s state
capacity to maintain social stability, thus gaining
legitimacy among its domestic audience.

22. Engagement
with China

23. China: Why
Cooperate
?
Economic Interests: huge
investment
Geopolitical Interests:
access to the India ocean
Border Security: shared
border and mass migrants
Regional Hegemony:
balance the West

24. Domestic
ally What
did China
offer?
Foreign Aid: money or
materials
Infrastructure Construction
Belt and Road: investment
(LNG project)
Military Weapon: fighter jets

25. Internationally
What did
China offer?
Even though the
partnership with China
failed to let the military
junta obtain Myanmar’s
official representative in the
United Nations, it did help
to loosen the Western
blockade of the junta
regime on the international
stage.

26. Engagemen
t with
Russia

27. Russia:
Why
Cooperate
?
Geopolitical Interests: expand
its sphere of influence into
Southeast Asia
Power Struggle: balance the
West
Financial Interests: arms sales

28. What did
Russia
offer?
Arms Supplies
Natural Resources
Defence Cooperation
Political Support: shield
Myanmar from the wrath of
the international community

29. Conclusion
Partnership with China benefits the military junta
mainly in economic development, while Russia
helps the military junta in the military field.
Therefore, China’s aid to the military junta helped
develop Myanmar’s economy, and Russia‘s military
support directly helped the regime to strengthen its
state capacity, thus assisting it to obtain legitimacy
from its domestic audience.

30. Critique
of the
Strategy
●The military junta’s partnerships with China and
Russia have an asymmetrical feature, which
undermines the flexibility and autonomy of
Myanmar’s foreign policy-making.
●Fail to gain spiritual acceptance from its domestic
audience (the only way to solve the legitimacy
problem fundamentally).

31. Future
Implications
Russia: the Ukraine
War
China: Economic
Recession

32. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
Hypotheses
1
Myanmar's National Unity Government employs an
outward facing strategy to achieve legitimacy from
western states and international organizations.
2
Myanmar's military junta employs an inward facing
strategy to achieve legitimacy from the majority of
the country's population.

33. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား

34. တရာားဝင်ြှုအတွက် ရုန်ားကန်ြှုြ ာား
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dilemma”, Nikkei Asia, 26
May2021(https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar
Crisis/Myanmar-s-parallel-government-grapples-with-
foreign-investment-dilemma）
Shang, P. P. (2022). Myanmar’s Foreign Policy: Shifting
Legitimacy, Shifting Strategic Culture. Journal of
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https://doi.org/10.1177/18681034211044481
Thida, Hnin Mya. "People’s Perception of the Role of
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(2021): 127-140.
Thuzar, Moe, and Htet Myet Min Tun. “Myanmar's
National Unity Government: A Radical Arrangement to
Counteract the Coup.” ISEAS, vol. 8, no. 2022, 28 Jan.
2022.
Mendelson, Allegra. “Myanmar’s military turns to
Buddhism in bid for legitimacy” Al Jazeera, 30 Jan
2022.
Trying to Legitimize Myanmar’s Regime Can Only
Backfire for China (irrawaddy.com)
By THE IRRAWADDY on 7 June 2021
Myoe, M. A. (2017). The NLD and Myanmar’s Foreign
Policy: Not New, but Different. Journal of Current
Southeast Asian Affairs, 36(1), 89–121. https://doi-
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Sources