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The
MONTHLY ALCO PACKAGE                  falling
                                      of
September 2010                        as

                                      Performa
                                      behavior
                                      continue




www.pcbb.com www.bancinvestment.com
BANK ACTIVITY
 Economic and Banking Summary

In a blink of an eye, summer and the month of August has come to an end. It was yet another
month of surprising momentum shifts and unpredictable headwinds, making ALCO more eventful
than this year’s summer vacation.

Wall Street continues to whimper and wail. S&P was down -6.83% and the Dow followed by -
6.23%. Fixed income yields continue to slide with 10yr Tres. dropping 43bps for the month.
Consumer confidence surprised market expectations by posting a higher than expected 2.5 point
increase to 53.5% in late August. Despite this positive surprise, consumer sentiment incurred a
downward revision by .7 points the very same day. GDP was revised down by 0.8% points to
1.6% indicating an economic recovery that is losing steam. To counter that, the employment
report came out and was more positive than expected. Non-farm payroll employment changed
little (-54k) in August despite the runoff of Census workers. The headline Unemployment Rate
went from 9.5% to 9.6%. The real positive in the data was that the past month was revised
upward, private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67k) and temporary
Help workers increased by 16.8k, a sign of potential future hiring.

August 10th’s FOMC minutes were similar as the previous with inflation subdued, financial
markets more supportive of growth, and agreed to maintain the target range of 0 to ¼ percent
Fed Funds rate. The quantitative easing discussion picked up steam and the FOMC decided to
reinvest their mortgage prepayments into Treasuries. While this will help lower intermediate
yields, the real significance is that this is really the first time we have seen a long term concerted
effort to utilize the Fed’s balance sheet. Normally, economists have not considered the balance
sheet as a long-term tool of monetary policy.

In terms of our industry, we are getting more of a “middle class.” While the problem bank list has
increased to 829, it has been the slowest increase in new banks added since the crisis began.
Except for those banks, the majority of community banks are starting to get back on their feet with
2Q showing an improvement in earnings and a slow down in asset quality problems. Loan growth
has been next to non-existent, so the last several months have been marked by more resources
devoted to generating earnings. Capital has become more plentiful with several notable deals in
the market giving other bank groups hope.

As we head into September, it is strategic planning time with many banks working on trying to
generate more fee income, being opportunistic when it comes to M&A and working on raising
capital. Other common projects include reducing the size of the branch network, increasing the
online banking platform, getting on a profitability system, customer segmentation and joint
venturing in order to generate quality loan growth.

Finally, it is worth noting that a significant number of banks are taking a look at how to restructure
their depository line up. Retail account types such as high-yield checking and even free checking
cost banks money that are hurting earnings. Most major banks have now instituted minimum
service charges, have transitioned account to an all electronic channel or have required other
activity in which to make a profit. In addition, many banks are trying to prepare for what to with
their business checking now that many banks will start to pay interest on this account type by
mid-2011.

While we are not sure where profitability heads next year, we can tell you that we cannot
remember a time when the basic banking business model was so much in question. If there was
ever a need to think strategically in the history of banking, it would be now.

Chris Nichols
President & CEO



                                               1 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
 Lending Activity

The most recent Fed survey had positive news for banks seeking loan volume: “On balance,
demand for C&I loans from large and middle-market firms and from small firms changed little in
the July survey.” The Fed’s senior lending officer survey in July represents the first time in three
years that demand has stopped falling.

However, the news is not all good for community banks. The problem is that national and large
regional banks are rolling out the red carpet for qualified borrowers, lowering rates and offering 5
to 25-year fixed rate loans. In this rate environment, community banks are finding it difficult to
commit funds at historically low rates, or taking interest rate risk by extending duration.

We can help banks better understand the market and price their loans on a floating equivalency.
If you want to price loans on our hedge platform we can permission you on our model without
costs -let us know and we’ll set you up. We also offer a hedging program designed for
community banks (no derivative accounting and easy to deliver to the borrower) to allow our
banks to compete against national and larger regional competitors.

The benefit of using our hedge pricing platform is that bankers can see why/how Bank of America
intends to make money offering 20-year fully amortizing loans at 5.00% fixed.


Ed Kofman
Managing Director - Derivatives Desk




                                              2 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
 Certificate of Deposit Issuance

Overall bank activity in the brokered deposit market was down for the month of August, but this is
a historically light month for issuance. Though volumes were down, issuance was steady
throughout most of the month. Treasuries continue to rally, and yields are hitting historic lows.
Funding costs are following the markets lead, and banks are able to raise deposits at historic
lows as well. The short end did not move much as rates have pretty much bottomed out in this
area of the curve. Short term funds are still trading at all in cost levels lower than the traditional
standard fees for these terms. There has been an extreme lack of issuance inside of one year as
the majority of issuers are taking advantage of these extreme lows and locking in longer term
funding.

With the summer coming to an end and the month being a quarter-end month, we anticipate
issuance to increase in September. There isn’t much room for rates to fall further, and rates
should begin to stabilize on the long end. Now is a good time to lock in funding as the lack of
names in the market brings less competition for deposits, thus cheaper funding.


Don Saunders
Managing Director - Brokered CD's




                                               3 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
 Fixed Income

Historical and current spreads vs. Treasuries for MBS and Agencies are listed below.

                                  MBS                         Agencies
                                15Y     30Y       2Y         5Y       10Y         30Y
       5YR High                 312     238      182        159       175         168
       5YR Low                   72      54      -16          2         -5         25
       5YR Avg                  133     124       37         46        46          51

       1YR High                 143     105       31         38         47          50
       1YR Low                   97      54      -16          2         -5          25
       1YR Avg                  118      76       13         25         29          40

       90 Day High              128       91      27         37         36          50
       90 Day Low               106       54       9          9         16          25
       90 Day Avg               117       74      19         25         27          37

       30 Day High              129       91      17         30         31          30
       30 Day Low               111       54      10         18         16          25
       30 Day Avg               118       76      13         24         22          27

       Last                     121       82      17         25         27          28

       Data Source: Bloomberg

Fixed Income: Trading activity picked up in August as bankers took advantage of near historic
low yield levels selling short maturing bonds to book gains and reinvested funds in longer
duration bonds. Investors focused primarily on well - structured 2-5Y duration agency CMOs,
preferring locked-out structures which were hard to come by. 10Y and 15Y MBS continued to see
good demand despite the lofty premium dollar prices.

Treasury yields continued to decline with the 2Y reaching an all-time intra-day low 0.45% on
8/24/10. By the close of the month the 2Y fell 8bp vs. the previous month. The 5Y, 10Y and 30Y
fell 26bp, 44bp and 48bp respectively. Agency spreads did not give up too much ground with the
2Y widening 2bp, 5Y +6bp, 10Y +7bp and 30Y nearly unchanged. Agency MBS had mixed
results. The 15Y sector did well and widened only 2bp, while the 30Y sector suffered amid
growing speculation that a government induced refi wave may occur and concerns that lower
yield levels in general may spark greater re-fi activity. 30Y MBS spreads widened out 30bp.

Looking ahead, MBS prepayments are expected to increase as the refi index jumped for a 4th
consecutive week and reached levels not seen since early 2009. However, the impact should be
lessened due to many mortgage originators experiencing constrained capacity, extending loan
lock-out periods to 90 days and instituting tighter underwriting standards. Additionally, with
approximately 25% of mortgage holders underwater on their existing home loans, a weak jobs
market and high fees and points associated with refinancing should dissuade some folks from
doing so.


Maxine Lew
Director - Fixed Income




                                           4 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
 Credit & Risk Management

When evaluating this decade’s rate experience, we can see 3 times where market rates have
changed by at least 4 points (over a 2 year time horizon). Two of these changes have been to the
down side (falling rates) and we are now awaiting the uptick in market rates. As we can see from
history, this uptick has the potential to be in the range of 4+ points (over a 2 year time horizon).


                                   Rolling 2 Year Change in Index
                                               (July ‐ to ‐ July)

                           ‐6.00     ‐4.00     ‐2.00          0.00         2.00    4.00      6.00


              Fed Effective



                  5Y Swap



                 10Y Swap



                    2002      2003   2004    2005      2006         2007   2008   2009    2010


This uptick has the potential to impact bank earnings from three perspectives.

First on the funding side, banks will need to be diligent in holding the line on deposit pricing which
may prove difficult. Many banks are currently flush with customer excess liquidity and that excess
liquidity will tend to cycle out of the bank as alternative instrument options (non-bank) will become
more prevalent as rates start to rise.

Second on the loan side, earnings will be restrained by existing loan floors that are embedded in
adjustable and/or variable rate loans. Short-term market rates will need to move upwards by at
least 2 points to return these assets to an upward adjusting rate loan.

Third and most importantly, as rates rise (especially over the next 3 points), there will be a
significant and negative impact on rate risk assumed by individual borrowers. Unfortunately, as
rates rise (which is good for bank earnings as adjustable rate produce additional interest income)
credit quality will likely fall. Higher debt service payments (due to rising rates) will place additional
strain/stress on credit quality by increasing debt service on borrowers and forcing some
borrowers into default at a time where secondary sources of loan repayment (collateral) will still
be suffering from the lingering impact of declining collateral values, all of which will increase loan
losses.

Prudently managed banks will incorporate note level ALM results (derived from their up 3 & 4
point rate shocks) into their note level Loan Stress Testing models to determine both expected
levels of non-accrual loans as well as charge-offs/provisions associated with these loans. Once
the value of non-accrual loans and loss/provision has been determined, these values need to be
incorporated back into ALM models to determine the impact on; earnings, earnings sensitivity and
capital. If these integration steps are not incorporated into bank risk assessment processes, then
capital plans will be material distorted as significant amounts of risk will not be measured.

Doug Hensley
Managing Director
                                                    5 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
 Funding

The following are some items that are frequent concerns today when we talk with bankers:

    1. The bank is liquid
    2. Investment and lending opportunities are difficult
    3. The bank needs to earn more money

The first item is becoming more of an issue for banks in general. One reason is related to
regulatory and operational pressures as banks are typically carrying more on-balance sheet
liquidity than in the past. Another reason is the difficult economic climate of today which affects
both assets and liabilities – excess liquidity is not just an asset driven event. The results are
clearly seen as the average loans to assets ratio has fallen below 70% of TA. Several years ago
it was not uncommon to see banks with ratios over 80%. Not today. The reality is banks will
likely have more conservative loans to assets ratios going forward, and this will affect the asset
yields of banks, perhaps permanently.

The second item is similar to the dilemma banks were facing in 1992-1995 when we were in a
recession and interest rates were low. Holding fed funds sold as an asset typically resulted in a
negative spread vs. the funding held against it, and pursuing investment and lending activity to
boost yields was not without risks. Unlike the last time when interest rate risk was the primary
concern, many banks today are also contending with capital, asset quality, and underwriting
issues or concerns. Some banks are choosing to make or purchase loans, while others are not.

This brings us to the third item - making more money. For most bankers, this traditionally means
finding ways to move forward with lending and/or investing activity. This is a strategy that comes
naturally to bankers, but banks must carefully manage the risks that come with this, especially in
today’s environment. One of the most overlooked ways for a bank to increase its income (in any
banking environment) is to make improvements in funding performance. Banking is rather simple
at its core, as banks buy money on one side of the balance sheet and sell it on the other. How
banks do this is important, as a characteristic of banks that fail or experience difficulty is often an
elevated cost of funds. If your money selling activity is constrained, or if it results in elevated risk,
then doesn’t it make sense to reduce your cost of buying money?

For the banks that make funding performance a priority, the results can be dramatic. Over the
last 18 quarters, one of our Liability and Strategic Coach clients in a competitive market was able
to save (increase revenue) a cumulative $76 million due to it having lower funding costs than its
national $1-3 billion TA peer group average. Currently, the bank is saving about $5.6 million per
quarter compared to this peer group. The bank works very hard to ensure that its superior
funding performance continues, and is careful not to take its eye off the ball which can be so easy
to do. By having lower funding costs, the bank has been able to maintain a less intensive asset
risk profile historically which is paying huge dividends today.

Whether your bank is able to achieve results like this, or if it simply moves from the 70th COF
percentile to the 50th, the performance improvements go directly to your bottom line, and can help
reduce the overall risk profile of your bank.

If you are interested in learning about your bank’s potential, or better yet, getting started on
improving your bank’s performance, please give us a call.


Greg Judge
Liability and Strategic Consulting




                                                6 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
 Loan Pricing and Customer Profitability

Data mining to find profits
While the primary purpose of our Relationship Profitability services is to identify the profitability of
every customer, product and relationship officer at the bank, a side benefit is our ability mine the
customer data for additional profit opportunities. The following are a few items we routinely look
at.

Waivers on deposit service charges – Is the bank waiving fees to its best or worst customers?
It is common to find that over half of the customers who have had their fees waived are not
profitable to the bank. While having the customer’s profitability certainly makes this analysis
easier, it is also possible to simply view the customer’s overall relationship and make a high level
judgment about the worthiness of waiving these fees.

Deposit fee structure – With the changes in the overdraft fee assessments combined with the
current low rate environment, free checking account products currently ranked toward the bottom
of the list. As such, we routinely analyze the cost / benefit of applying service charges on these
accounts. For the average $500 million commercial bank we estimated that there is a $.5 million
to $1.5 million annual income opportunity to implementing service charges while not incurring
significant attrition risk.

Cross Sell opportunities – Cross sell ratios generally range between 2.1 and 2.7. However this
number alone doesn’t readily show the underlying opportunities. Consider that over 50% of the
customers have only one account with bank and that 20% - 25% of the customers did not have a
checking account. Effective cross selling is essential in retaining more customers as studies
show that the more products a customer uses, the lower the likelihood they are to leave and there
are numerous opportunities. Data mining for cross sell opportunities should be a top priority at
every bank.

Utilization of floors - While we are normally strong proponents of utilizing floors in loan pricing
strategy, we believe that in this interest rate environment the strategy of setting the initial rate to
the floor will erode long term profitability. For example, take a loan priced at Prime + 1% with a
floor of 5.5%. With Prime at 3.25%, the computed interest rate of that loan is 4.25%. However,
with the floor, the initial rate for that borrower is at 5.5%. In doing so, the bank has placed a credit
premium on this loan of 2.25% (5.5% floor less Prime of 3.25%). As market interest rates
increase, the implied credit premium decreases to 1%. Yet the borrower’s actual credit risk profile
may or may not have changed. In addition, the bank’s net interest margin will suffer when market
interest rates start to rise. Not only will this loan act as a fixed rate loan for the first 125bp point
increase, it will continue to be priced at only 1% over Prime for the life of the loan. The bank
would have been better off pricing that loan at 2.25% over Prime, thus holding the credit premium
constant over the life of the loan. Should that borrower’s credit quality change at some later date,
the bank and the borrower can renegotiate terms at that time. At a minimum, an analysis should
be performed to understanding the bank’s utilization of floors and how much of an increase in
rates is required for these loans to move off of their floors.

Loan renewals – How many loans are coming up for renewal in the next 6 months? With a tight
credit market and deteriorating credit quality, an increase in loan rates may be warranted. Simply
quantifying and understanding the impact of increasing spreads by 25bps – 100 bps on upcoming
maturities is a worthy exercise for any ALCO group. For the average $500 million community
bank, it is not unusual to see 10% - 20% of the portfolio renewing on annual basis, thus resulting
in significant opportunities to reprice the portfolio in a short amount of time.




                                               7 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
 Loan Pricing and Customer Profitability

While overlaying customer profitability data on all of these analysis increases the power of the
analytics, these analysis can still be done without the profit calculations. Doing so may yield
significant profit opportunities.

Probabilities of Default Month in Review – PD’s have remained mostly unchanged from the
previous month. However, as we will be incorporating a recent review of cure rates and vintage
performance, users can expect to see PD’s come down in BIG’s model in the near future.


Kim Jackson
Managing Director


Mike Middleton
Managing Director




                                            8 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
Loan Pricing and Customer Profitability


                 Prime              2yrswap      5yrswap    10yr swap
                 3.25%               0.69%        1.64%       2.62%



       Yields
       Lending Class                 Prime          2yr        5yr          10yr
       Ag - farm land                5.02%         5.33%      6.02%        6.26%
       Ag - production               4.86%         5.17%      5.83%        6.07%
       Construction -Commercial      6.12%         6.64%
       Construction multifamily      6.12%         6.69%
       Construction Residential      6.12%         6.79%
       Construction Other            6.12%         6.94%
       Consumer                      5.02%         5.33%      6.02%        6.26%
       Hotel                         5.63%         5.98%      6.75%        7.03%
       Industrial                    5.07%         5.39%      6.08%        6.33%
       Manufactured Housing          5.07%         5.39%      6.08%        6.33%
       Mixed Use                     5.07%         5.39%      6.08%        6.33%
       Multifamily                   5.12%         5.46%      6.16%        6.41%
       Office                        5.12%         5.44%      6.14%        6.39%
       Retail                        5.12%         5.44%      6.14%        6.39%
       Self Storage                  5.02%         5.33%      6.02%        6.26%
       Other                         5.12%         5.44%      6.14%        6.39%


       Spreads
       Lending Class                 Prime          2yr        5yr          10yr
       Ag - farm land                1.77%         4.64%      4.38%        3.64%
       Ag - production               1.61%         4.48%      4.19%        3.45%
       Construction -Commercial      2.87%         5.95%
       Construction multifamily      2.87%         6.00%
       Construction Residential      2.87%         6.10%
       Construction Other            2.87%         6.25%
       Consumer                      1.77%         4.64%      4.38%        3.64%
       Hotel                         2.38%         5.29%      5.11%        4.41%
       Industrial                    1.82%         4.70%      4.44%        3.71%
       Manufactured Housing          1.82%         4.70%      4.44%        3.71%
       Mixed Use                     1.82%         4.70%      4.44%        3.71%
       Multifamily                   1.87%         4.77%      4.52%        3.79%
       Office                        1.87%         4.75%      4.50%        3.77%
       Retail                        1.87%         4.75%      4.50%        3.77%
       Self Storage                  1.77%         4.64%      4.38%        3.64%
       Other                         1.87%         4.75%      4.50%        3.77%

For information regarding our Loan Pricing Model or Customer Profitability Services, please
contact Kim Jackson, Mike Middleton or Janet Leung at 877-777-0412,
info@bancinvestment.com




                                         9 of 23
BANK ACTIVITY
 BIG Metrics

Texas ratio trend lines for Q2 leveled off slightly from Q1 as the nationwide Texas ratio average
fell to 39.4% from 41.1% a quarter ago. The state of Washington had the highest Texas ratio but
even there, the level declined slightly from Q1.The state of Michigan, last quarter’s Texas ratio
“leader,” improved to 5th place, while the lowest Texas ratio in the nation was found in
Massachusetts, which has had the lowest ratio for the past 5 quarters. For the record, Texas’
Texas ratio was 30.7% in Q2, putting the Lone Star state in 35th place overall.

If you like data, you’ll love BIG Metrics. Give us a call today for your free tour.




Michael Stinson
Vice President – BIG Metrics


                                               10 of 23
Real Estate Market Trends - Special Report
Overview
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, for the first time in 4Y growth was generated in consumption, fixed          Office
investments, exports, inventories and government expenditures. Wrapping up the 1H, GDP grew an annualized 2.4%             1
in the 2Q down from 3.7% in the 1Q. Real estate properties performance continued mixed, with multifamily properties        gain
leading the pack and retail still languishing. The 2H of 2010 may not look as brightly as the economy wanes.               reported
                                                                                                                           propertie
Mutifamily Market
The multifamily sector surfaced from its bottom, following a 2nd quarter of rising rents and posting the 1st quarter of
falling vacancies in over 2Y. Net absorption totaled over 46k units, the largest quarterly gain in occupied space in 10Y
of which 70% stemmed from existing buildings. However, completions remained 57% vacant, up from 53% in the 1Q,
as asking rents topped existing properties by 15%. 1 in 10 new properties were at least 30% vacant.

Performance may not grow in a linear fashion as long as job growth remains questionable. NY exemplified this
behavior this quarter, with both vacancy and rents rising. As for the next several years, expect net absorption to
continue around 100k units and annual completions to remain well below 100k units.

Quarterly Cap Rates 2006-2010                                 National Quarterly Conditions
                       Period               Cap Rate                                   Rent        %Δ     Vacancy Rate
Present Qtr             2Q 10                 7.30%           Q3 09                   $971       -2.0%            7.9%
Market Low              1Q 06                     6.14        Q4 09                     964        -0.7              8.0
Market High             3Q 09                     7.60        Q1 10                     967         0.3              8.0
                                                              Q2 10                     973         0.6              7.8
Top Markets                     Bottom Markets                Y 09                      964        -2.9              8.0
                                                                                                                           Net
Charleston          4.8% Las Vegas              -3.9%         Y 10                      978         1.5              7.8   and
Colorado Springs      4.4 Tacoma                  -3.0        Y 11                      995         1.7              7.2   completi
Columbia              4.3 Westchester             -2.3        Y 12                    1,021         2.6              6.7   vacancie
                                                                                                                           witnesse
US Aggregate Revenue Growth                       -0.1        Y 13                    1,052         3.0              6.4
                                                                                                                           Regiona
                                                                                                                           asking




Source: Reis, Inc.


                                                         11 of 23
Real Estate Market Trends - Special Report
        Office Market
   fixed Office vacancies rose in 49 of 82 markets, falling from 60 in the 1Q and 67 at the end of 2009. The market dropped Overall,
      % 1.4mm sq. ft in occupied space in the quarter. However, submarkets with business districts posted a net absorption benefit
operties gain of 2.6mm sq. ft. as some businesses attempt to catch the bottom and lock in lower rent prices. Only Pittsburgh net
         reported a YOY rise in revenue / sq. ft, although some submarkets reeled in growth over 10%. Overall, nearly half of all
         properties saw asking rents drop with effective rents falling another 80bp. 65 of 82 markets took on declines.

    of
     Y Quarterly Cap Rates 2006-2010                                 National Quarterly Conditions
    Q,                  Period                          Cap Rate             Net Absorption         Rent    % Δ Vacancy Rate
        Present Qtr          2Q 10                         7.37%     Q3 09              -19.2     $22.87   -2.2%          16.6%
   this Market Low           2Q 07                           6.22    Q4 09              -13.9      22.43    -1.9            17.0
     to Market High          1Q 10                           8.23    Q1 10              -10.8      22.25    -0.8            17.3
                                                                     Q2 10                -1.4     22.07    -0.8            17.4
        Top Markets                    Bottom Markets                Y 09               -79.0      22.43    -8.9            17.0
        Pittsburgh            2.2%     Orange County       -13.9%    Y 10               -14.3      22.01    -1.9            17.7
        New Haven               0.4    San Jose              -13.7   Y 11                29.6      22.18     0.8            17.3
        Charleston         -0.2 Phoenix                      -12.6   Y 12                48.5      22.63     2.0            16.8
        US Aggregate Revenue Growth                           -6.9   Y 13                59.5      23.29     2.9            16.1
        Retail Market
                                                                                                 Regional & Super Regional
         Net absorption continued in the negative, dropping 2.2mm sq.ft. for neighborhood
         and community shopping centers as demand remained muted. With this in mind,                               Vacancy Rate
         completions totaled only 355k sq. ft. (the lowest quarterly addition in 10Y) leaving    3Q 09                     8.6%
         vacancies up only 10bp, the lowest rise since the end of 2007. 31 of 80 markets         4Q 09                       8.8
         witnessed a rise in vacancies in the quarter while rents dropped in 67.
                                                                                                 1Q 10                       8.9
         Regional and super regional malls hit the 7th consecutive quarter of both falling       2Q 10                         9
         asking rents and yet another record vacancy rate (9%).


        Quarterly Cap Rates 2006-2010                                National Quarterly Conditions
                              Period                    Cap Rate             Net Absorption
                                                                                       Rent         Rent    % Δ Vacancy Rate
        Present Qtr          2Q 10                         8.58%     Q3 09                -4.4    $16.89   -7.0%          10.3%
        Market Low           2Q 07                           7.74    Q4 09                -2.5     16.75    -0.8            10.6
        Market High          2Q 09                           9.97    Q1 10                -2.5     16.62    -0.8            10.8
                                                                     Q2 10                -2.2     16.53    -0.5            10.9
        Top Markets                    Bottom Markets                Y 09               -22.1      16.75    -3.7            10.6
        Louisville            1.1%     Providence           -7.8%    Y 10                 -6.9     16.42    -2.0            11.3
        Memphis                -0.3    Orlando                -7.6   Y 11                 -1.6     16.30    -0.7            12.0
        Denver                 -0.9    Rochester              -7.5   Y 12                17.9      16.37     0.4            11.9
        US Aggregate Revenue Growth                           -3.7   Y 13                32.2      16.62     1.5            11.3




        Source: Reis, Inc.


                                                                 12 of 23
Real Estate Market Trends - Special Report
         Industrial Market
dropped Overall, industrial performance will gain from growth in the global economy and port cities will be among the first to
sorption benefit. For some markets, like Dallas and Houston, the turn around will begin in the latter half of this year with positive
ttsburgh net absorption. As for the rest, the 2H will slow compared to the first half as the domestic economy wanes.
      all
         Top Markets                     2009        National Quarterly Conditions
         Baltimore                       -1.1%                  Net Absorption                Rent           %Δ       Vacancy Rate
         Jacksonville                      -1.5      Y08                    -1.7             $4.65         -1.1%               10.2%
         Pittsburgh                        -1.9      Y09                   -72.7               4.35          -6.5                11.4
         US Aggregate Rent Growth          -6.5      Y10                   -16.7               4.18          -3.9                11.8
         Bottom Markets                  2009        Y11                    43.9               4.19           0.2                11.5
         Miami                           -9.6%       Y12                    71.8               4.28           2.1                11.1
         Palm Beach                        -9.4      Y13                    82.4               4.39           2.6                10.9
         Tampa - St. Petersburg            -8.8      Y14                   109.3               4.52             3                10.6




         Source: Reis, Inc.


                                                                    13 of 23
INTEREST RATE RECAP
                               08/31/10     07/30/10                      06/30/10                             08/31/09
         SHORT RATES            Now           Now             Change       Prior           Change               Now        Change
      to Fed Funds             0.25%         0.25%             0.00%       0.25%             0.00%             0.25%        0.00%
positive Prime                 3.25%         3.25%             0.00%       3.25%             0.00%             3.25%        0.00%
         1M Libor              0.26%         0.31%            -0.05%       0.35%            -0.09%             0.26%        0.00%
         2M Libor              0.27%         0.37%            -0.10%       0.43%            -0.16%             0.28%       -0.01%
         3M Libor              0.30%         0.45%            -0.16%       0.53%            -0.24%             0.35%       -0.05%
         4M Libor              0.36%         0.52%            -0.16%       0.60%            -0.24%             0.52%       -0.16%
         5M Libor              0.43%         0.59%            -0.16%       0.67%            -0.24%             0.67%       -0.24%
         6M Libor              0.50%         0.67%            -0.17%       0.75%            -0.25%             0.76%       -0.26%
         1Y Libor              0.84%         1.04%            -0.19%       1.17%            -0.33%             1.33%       -0.49%

      TREASURY RATES
      2Y Note       0.47%                     0.55%           -0.08%         0.61%             -0.14%          1.33%        -0.86%
      3Y Note       0.70%                     0.82%           -0.13%         0.97%             -0.27%          1.95%        -1.25%
      4Y Note       1.03%                     1.20%           -0.17%         1.43%             -0.40%          2.41%        -1.38%
      5Y Note       1.33%                     1.60%           -0.27%         1.78%             -0.44%          2.76%        -1.43%
      7Y Note       1.92%                     2.30%           -0.38%         2.41%             -0.50%          3.23%        -1.31%
      10Y Note      2.47%                     2.91%           -0.44%         2.93%             -0.47%          3.62%        -1.15%
      30Y Bond      3.52%                     3.99%           -0.47%         3.89%             -0.37%          4.09%        -0.58%

      SWAPS FIX VS. 3M LIBOR
      2Y Swap         0.66%                   0.73%           -0.07%         0.97%             -0.31%          1.33%        -0.67%
      3Y Swap         0.95%                   1.07%           -0.12%         1.33%             -0.38%          1.95%        -0.99%
      4Y Swap         1.26%                   1.43%           -0.16%         1.71%             -0.44%          2.41%        -1.15%
      5Y Swap         1.56%                   1.78%           -0.21%         2.05%             -0.49%          2.76%        -1.20%
      7Y Swap         2.05%                   2.36%           -0.32%         2.56%             -0.51%          3.23%        -1.18%
      10Y Swap        2.49%                   2.89%           -0.41%         3.00%             -0.51%          3.62%        -1.13%
      15Y Swap        2.87%                   3.37%           -0.50%         3.42%             -0.55%          3.91%        -1.04%


                                                 Month to Month Treasury Yield Change



        -0.05%
                 -0.08%

        -0.14%
                                   -0.13%
                                                -0.17%
        -0.23%

                                                                 -0.27%
        -0.32%
                                                                                     -0.38%

        -0.41%

                                                                                                    -0.44%
                                                                                                                          -0.47%
        -0.50%
                     2Y Note        3Y Note         4Y Note        5Y Note           7Y Note        10Y Note        30Y Bond




                                                                  14 of 23
PROJECTED FEDERAL FUNDS
Survey Date: 8/10/2010
         Dealer          Q3 2010   Q4 2010      Q1 2011   Q2 2011   Q3 2011   Q4 2011
Action Economics          0.25%     0.25%        0.25%     0.25%     1.00%     1.50%
Barclays Capital *        0.25%     0.25%        0.25%     0.25%     0.50%     1.00%
BBVA                      0.25%     0.25%        0.25%     0.25%     0.50%     0.75%
BMO Financial             0.25%     0.25%        0.25%     0.25%     0.50%     1.00%
BOT - Mitsubishi          0.25%     0.50%        1.00%     1.50%     2.00%     2.50%
Commerzbank AG            0.25%     0.25%        0.25%     0.25%     0.50%     1.00%
Credit Suisse FB *        0.25%     0.25%        0.25%     0.25%     0.25%     0.25%
Deutsche Bank *           0.25%     0.25%        0.50%     1.00%     1.50%     2.00%
Fannie Mae                0.25%     0.25%        0.25%     0.25%     0.25%     0.25%
First Trust Adv.         0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.25%     0.25%
Goldman Sachs            0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.25%     0.25%
Janney Montgomery        0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.75%     0.75%     1.00%
JP Morgan Chase *        0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%       n/a       n/a
Moodys Capital Markets   0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.75%     1.00%
Morgan Keegan            0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.25%     1.25%
Morgan Stanley *         0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.50%     1.00%
Nomura Securities*       0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.25%     0.25%
Nord LB                  0.25%     0.25%         0.50%    1.00%     1.50%     2.00%
Scotia Capital           0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.25%     0.25%
Societe Generale         0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.50%     1.25%     2.00%
Standard Chartered       0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.75%     1.00%
State Street Global      0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.25%     0.25%
UBS*                     0.25%     0.25%           n/a      n/a       n/a       n/a
Wells Fargo & Co         0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.50%     0.50%




Median                   0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.50%     1.00%

Average                  0.25%     0.26%         0.30%    0.40%     0.66%     0.97%

High                     0.25%     0.50%         1.00%    1.50%     2.00%     2.50%

Low                      0.25%     0.25%         0.25%    0.25%     0.25%     0.25%

*Primary Dealers




                                             15 of 23
SHORT TERM MARKET EXPECTATIONS
FEDERAL FUNDS FUTURES
                                                                                    Federal Funds Futures
  Sep-10   0.25
  Oct-10   0.25   1.00

  Nov-10   0.25
  Dec-10   0.25   0.75
  Jan-11   0.25
  Feb-11   0.25   0.50
  Mar-11   0.25
  Apr-11   0.25   0.25
                             0.25                                                                 0.25                                    0.25                     0.25
  May-11 0.25
  Jun-11 0.25     0.00
                                             Oct-10
                                 Sep-10




                                                                           Dec-10




                                                                                                         Feb-11
                                                                                         Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                     Jun-11


                                                                                                                                                               Jul-11
                                                                                                                                 Apr-11


                                                                                                                                           May-11
                                                            Nov-10




                                                                                                                     Mar-11
   Jul-11 0.25



EURODOLLAR FUTURES

  Sep-10   0.32                                                                        Eurodollar Futures
  Dec-10   0.42
                   2.25
  Mar-11   0.47
  Jun-11   0.55
                   1.75
  Sep-11   0.66                                                                                                                                                     1.68

  Dec-11   0.82
                   1.25
  Mar-12   0.98                                                                                                                            1.33
  Jun-12   1.16
                   0.75
  Sep-12   1.33                                                                                          0.66
                            0.32
  Dec-12   1.51                                                 0.47
                   0.25
  Mar-13   1.68
                                                                                                                               Jun-12
                                                                       Jun-11
                          Sep-



                                          Dec-




                                                                                      Sep-



                                                                                                     Dec-




                                                                                                                                          Sep-



                                                                                                                                                    Dec-
                                                                                                                   Mar-12
                                                       Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                               Mar-13
                                                                                       11



                                                                                                      11




                                                                                                                                                     12
                           10



                                           10




                                                                                                                                           12



   Jun-13 1.86

PRIME RATE FUTURES

  Sep-10 3.02                                                                          Prime Rate Futures

  Dec-10   3.12   5.00

  Mar-11   3.17
  Jun-11   3.25   4.50
                                                                                                                                                                    4.38
  Sep-11   3.36
  Dec-11 3.52     4.00
                                                                                                                                          4.03
  Mar-12   3.68                                                                                   3.52
                  3.50
  Jun-12   3.86
  Sep-12   4.03            3.02
  Dec-12   4.21   3.00
                                                                     Jun-




                                                                                                                              Jun-
                          Sep-



                                          Dec-



                                                      Mar-




                                                                                     Sep-



                                                                                                     Dec-



                                                                                                                  Mar-




                                                                                                                                          Sep-



                                                                                                                                                    Dec-



                                                                                                                                                              Mar-
                                                                      11




                                                                                                                               12




  Mar-13   4.38
                                                                                                                                                               13
                                                       11




                                                                                                                   12
                                                                                                      11
                                           10




                                                                                                                                                     12
                           10




                                                                                                                                           12
                                                                                      11




  Jun-13   4.56

                                                                            16 of 23
LONG TERM MARKET EXPECTATIONS
TREASURIES NOW as of 8/31/2010

                                                         Current Treasury Curve
1YR            0.24
2YR            0.48              3.30
                        3.20
3YR            0.70
5YR            1.33
                        2.45
10YR           2.47                                                                                       2.47


                        1.70
                                                                                                 1.33

                        0.95
                                                                      0.70
                                 0.24            0.48
                        0.20
                                   1YR         2YR                3YR                    5YR            10YR


TREASURIES 1Y FORWARD as of 8/31/2010

1YR            0.72                                           1Y Forward vs. Now
2YR            0.93
3YR            1.28     3.20
                                                                                                               2.75
5YR            1.91
10YR           2.75     2.45
                                                                                                                2.47

                                                                                  1.91
                        1.70
                                                                                         1.33
                                                                   1.28
                                                  0.93
                        0.95
                                 0.72             0.48                    0.70
                                 0.24
                        0.20
                                    1YR         2YR                3YR                    5YR            10YR


TREASURIES 2Y FORWARD as of 8/31/2010

                                                              2Y Forward vs. Now
1YR            1.15
2YR            1.56
                          3.20
3YR            1.91                                                                                             3.00
5YR            2.50                                                                       2.50                 2.47
                          2.45
10YR           3.00
                                                                     1.91
                                                 1.56
                          1.70
                                                                                          1.33
                                  1.15
                          0.95
                                                  0.48                       0.70
                                   0.24
                          0.20
                                        1YR      2YR                 3YR                   5YR            10YR



                                              17 of 23
OTHER IMPORTANT DATA
                                             LIBOR MARKET EXPECTATIONS
                                              1YR       2YR         3YR                       5YR           10YR
LIBOR 6M Forward                              0.60      1.07        1.82                      3.03          3.14
LIBOR 1Y Forward                              0.72      1.19        1.98                      3.19          3.18
LIBOR 2Y Forward                              0.95      1.58        2.31                      3.51          3.24

         LIBOR 6M Forward
         LIBOR 1Y Forward                         2Y Forward vs. 1Y Forward vs. 6M Forward
         LIBOR 2Y Forward

  4.25



                                                                                                        3.24
  3.25
                                                                                                        3.18
                                                                                                        3.14
                                                                2.31
  2.25
                                                              1.98

                                                                1.82
  1.25
              0.95
              0.72
              0.60
  0.25
                 1YR                        2YR                 3YR                     5YR          10YR

                                        BALTIC DRY INDEX - 1 YEAR HISTORY




                     Last Price      2713
                     High 11/19/09   4661
                     Average         2979
                     Low 7/15/10     1700




                                                             18 of 23
OTHER IMPORTANT DATA
                            OIL PRICES (INFLATION) - 5 YEAR HISTORY




  Last Price       71.84
  High 7/03/08     145.29
  Average          74.61
  Low 12/19/08     33.87




                   UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JOBS PICTURE) - 5 YEAR HISTORY




   Last Price       9.6
   High 10/31/09    10.1
   Average          6.5
   Low 10/31/06     4.4




                                             19 of 23
OTHER IMPORTANT DATA
                      GDP (UNDERLYING ECONOMIC GROWTH) - 5Y HISTORY




   Last Price       1.6
   High 3/31/08     5.4
   Average          1.0
   Low 12/31/08     -6.8




                  1 MONTH LIBOR (APPROX. BANK FUNDING COSTS) - 5Y HISTORY




   Ask price       0.25781
   High 9/07/07    5.82375
   Average         2.98330
   Low 3/01/10     0.22813




                                           20 of 23
BOND YIELD FORECAST
                          Market Yield      Q4 2010          Q1 2011             Q2 2011           Q3 2011            Q4 2011
US 3 M Libor                  0.30           0.48               0.56              0.76              1.14                1.52


                                                       US 3M Libor
  1.70
                                                                                                                 1.52

  1.35
                                                                                          1.14

  1.00


  0.65
                                                    0.56
               0.30
  0.30
          Market Yield        Q4 2010          Q1 2011                Q2 2011            Q3 2011             Q4 2011



                          Market Yield      Q4 2010          Q1 2011             Q2 2011           Q3 2011            Q4 2011
Fed Funds Target              0.25           0.25               0.25              0.25              0.75                1.00

                                                      Fed Funds Rate

 1.25

                                                                                                                 1.00
 1.00
                                                                                         0.75
 0.75


 0.50
                  0.25                                                 0.25
 0.25
          Market Yield        Q4 2010          Q1 2011                Q2 2011            Q3 2011             Q4 2011



                          Market Yield      Q4 2010          Q1 2011             Q2 2011           Q3 2011            Q4 2011
US 10Y                        2.47           3.01               3.20              3.44              3.73                3.93
US 2Y                         0.47           0.78               0.97              1.24              1.61                1.95
spread                        2.36           2.36               2.28              2.23              2.08                1.98

                                                                                                              US 10Y
                                                         10Y VS 2Y                                            US 2Y

   4.40
                                                                                                                  3.93
                                     3.01
   3.40
                                                                         3.44
               2.47
   2.40
                                                                                                                  1.95

   1.40
                                                                                           1.61
               0.47                                 0.97
   0.40
           Market Yield        Q4 2010          Q1 2011                Q2 2011           Q3 2011             Q4 2011



                                                           21 of 23
KEY UPCOMING DATES
            FOMC MEETING DATES                            FOMC VOTING MEMBERS
01/28/09     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              1      Ben Bernanke (Chairman)
03/18/09     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              2      James Bullard
04/29/09     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              3      William Dudley
06/24/09     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              4      Elizabeth Duke
08/12/09     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              5      Thomas Hoenig
09/23/09     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              6      Donald Kohn
11/04/09     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              7      Sandra Pianalto
12/16/09     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              8      Eric Rosengren
01/27/10     0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth              9      Daniel Tarullo
03/16/10     0.00- 0.25%   Risk to Growth           10      Kevin Warsh
04/29/10     0.00- 0.25%   Risk to Growth
06/24/10     0.00- 0.25%   Risk to Growth                FOMC ALTERNATE MEMBERS
08/12/10     0.00- 0.25%   Risk to Growth            1      Christine Cumming
09/23/10                                             2      Charles Evans
11/04/10                                             3      Richard Fisher
12/16/10                                             4      Narayana Kocherlakota
01/26/11                                             5      Charles Plosser




                             KEY UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

  Date      Indicator                              Date     Indicator
9/1/2010    Construction Spending MoM           9/17/2010   Consumer Price Index
9/1/2010    ISM Manufacturing & Prices Paid     9/20/2010   NAHB Housing Market Index
9/1/2010    Vehicle Sales                       9/21/2010   Building Permits & Housing Starts
9/2/2010    Pending Home Sales                  9/22/2010   House Price Index
9/3/2010  Employment Report                     9/23/2010 Leading Indicators
9/8/2010 Consumer Credit                        9/23/2010 Existing Home Sales
 9/9/2010 Trade Balance                         9/24/2010 Durable Goods Orders
9/10/2010 Wholesale Inventories                 9/24/2010 New Home Sales
9/13/2010 Monthly Budget Statement              9/27/2010 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
9/14/2010   Business Inventories                9/28/2010 Consumer Confidence
9/14/2010   Advance Retail Sales                9/28/2010 S&P/ Case Shiller Home Price Ind
9/15/2010   Capacity Utilization                9/28/2010 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
9/15/2010   Empire Manufacturing                9/30/2010 Personal Consumption
9/15/2010 Industrial Production                 9/30/2010 GDP Price Index
9/15/2010 Import Price Index                    9/30/2010 Core PCE QoQ
9/16/2010 Producer Price Index                  9/30/2010 Chicago Purchasing Manager
9/17/2010 U. of Michigan Confidence             9/30/2010 NAPM-Milwaukee




                                              22 of 23
DISCLAIMER

The information contained in this document is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is
not involved in trading or financial service activities, or responsible for delivering this message to the
intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution or copying of this communication is strictly
prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify the Banc Investment Group
immediately at 877-777-0412. This information does not constitute either an offer to sell or a solicitation of
an offer to buy any of the securities referred to herein. Offers to sell and solicitations of offers to buy the
securities are made only by, and this information must be read in conjunction with, the final Prospectus
Supplement and the related Prospectus or, if not registered under the securities laws, the final Offering
Memorandum (the “Offering Document”). Information contained herein does not purport to be complete
and is subject to the same qualifications and assumptions, and should be considered by investors only in
the light of the same warnings, lack of assurances and representations and other precautionary matters,
as disclosed in the Offering Document. This information may include certain assumptions and no
representation is made that it is accurate or complete or that any returns indicated will be achieved.
Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on returns. Past performance is not indicative of
future results. Price and availability are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of mutual fund investments may
fluctuate so that investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Mutual funds are not FDIC insured, not bank guaranteed and may lose value. Customers should rely on
their own outside counsel, regulator, or accounting firm to address specific circumstances. Additional
information is available on request. Banc Investment Group is a member of FINRA and SIPC, and the
sister company of Pacific Coast Bankers' Bank. This document cannot be reproduced or redistributed
outside of your institution without the written consent of the Banc Investment Group. Banc Investment
Group is the sister company of PCBB, and all securities are offered through BIG.

Source for data is Bloomberg, dealer provided documents and proprietary calculations or research. This
package is created specifically for independent banks as an added monthly service and provided by
Steve Brown, Chris Nichols and the rest of the team at Banc Investment Group.




                           340 Pine Street, Suite 401, San Francisco, CA 94104
                                            ph. 877-777-0412



                                                    23 of 23

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Monthly Alco Package September 2010

  • 1. The MONTHLY ALCO PACKAGE falling of September 2010 as Performa behavior continue www.pcbb.com www.bancinvestment.com
  • 2. BANK ACTIVITY Economic and Banking Summary In a blink of an eye, summer and the month of August has come to an end. It was yet another month of surprising momentum shifts and unpredictable headwinds, making ALCO more eventful than this year’s summer vacation. Wall Street continues to whimper and wail. S&P was down -6.83% and the Dow followed by - 6.23%. Fixed income yields continue to slide with 10yr Tres. dropping 43bps for the month. Consumer confidence surprised market expectations by posting a higher than expected 2.5 point increase to 53.5% in late August. Despite this positive surprise, consumer sentiment incurred a downward revision by .7 points the very same day. GDP was revised down by 0.8% points to 1.6% indicating an economic recovery that is losing steam. To counter that, the employment report came out and was more positive than expected. Non-farm payroll employment changed little (-54k) in August despite the runoff of Census workers. The headline Unemployment Rate went from 9.5% to 9.6%. The real positive in the data was that the past month was revised upward, private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67k) and temporary Help workers increased by 16.8k, a sign of potential future hiring. August 10th’s FOMC minutes were similar as the previous with inflation subdued, financial markets more supportive of growth, and agreed to maintain the target range of 0 to ¼ percent Fed Funds rate. The quantitative easing discussion picked up steam and the FOMC decided to reinvest their mortgage prepayments into Treasuries. While this will help lower intermediate yields, the real significance is that this is really the first time we have seen a long term concerted effort to utilize the Fed’s balance sheet. Normally, economists have not considered the balance sheet as a long-term tool of monetary policy. In terms of our industry, we are getting more of a “middle class.” While the problem bank list has increased to 829, it has been the slowest increase in new banks added since the crisis began. Except for those banks, the majority of community banks are starting to get back on their feet with 2Q showing an improvement in earnings and a slow down in asset quality problems. Loan growth has been next to non-existent, so the last several months have been marked by more resources devoted to generating earnings. Capital has become more plentiful with several notable deals in the market giving other bank groups hope. As we head into September, it is strategic planning time with many banks working on trying to generate more fee income, being opportunistic when it comes to M&A and working on raising capital. Other common projects include reducing the size of the branch network, increasing the online banking platform, getting on a profitability system, customer segmentation and joint venturing in order to generate quality loan growth. Finally, it is worth noting that a significant number of banks are taking a look at how to restructure their depository line up. Retail account types such as high-yield checking and even free checking cost banks money that are hurting earnings. Most major banks have now instituted minimum service charges, have transitioned account to an all electronic channel or have required other activity in which to make a profit. In addition, many banks are trying to prepare for what to with their business checking now that many banks will start to pay interest on this account type by mid-2011. While we are not sure where profitability heads next year, we can tell you that we cannot remember a time when the basic banking business model was so much in question. If there was ever a need to think strategically in the history of banking, it would be now. Chris Nichols President & CEO 1 of 23
  • 3. BANK ACTIVITY Lending Activity The most recent Fed survey had positive news for banks seeking loan volume: “On balance, demand for C&I loans from large and middle-market firms and from small firms changed little in the July survey.” The Fed’s senior lending officer survey in July represents the first time in three years that demand has stopped falling. However, the news is not all good for community banks. The problem is that national and large regional banks are rolling out the red carpet for qualified borrowers, lowering rates and offering 5 to 25-year fixed rate loans. In this rate environment, community banks are finding it difficult to commit funds at historically low rates, or taking interest rate risk by extending duration. We can help banks better understand the market and price their loans on a floating equivalency. If you want to price loans on our hedge platform we can permission you on our model without costs -let us know and we’ll set you up. We also offer a hedging program designed for community banks (no derivative accounting and easy to deliver to the borrower) to allow our banks to compete against national and larger regional competitors. The benefit of using our hedge pricing platform is that bankers can see why/how Bank of America intends to make money offering 20-year fully amortizing loans at 5.00% fixed. Ed Kofman Managing Director - Derivatives Desk 2 of 23
  • 4. BANK ACTIVITY Certificate of Deposit Issuance Overall bank activity in the brokered deposit market was down for the month of August, but this is a historically light month for issuance. Though volumes were down, issuance was steady throughout most of the month. Treasuries continue to rally, and yields are hitting historic lows. Funding costs are following the markets lead, and banks are able to raise deposits at historic lows as well. The short end did not move much as rates have pretty much bottomed out in this area of the curve. Short term funds are still trading at all in cost levels lower than the traditional standard fees for these terms. There has been an extreme lack of issuance inside of one year as the majority of issuers are taking advantage of these extreme lows and locking in longer term funding. With the summer coming to an end and the month being a quarter-end month, we anticipate issuance to increase in September. There isn’t much room for rates to fall further, and rates should begin to stabilize on the long end. Now is a good time to lock in funding as the lack of names in the market brings less competition for deposits, thus cheaper funding. Don Saunders Managing Director - Brokered CD's 3 of 23
  • 5. BANK ACTIVITY Fixed Income Historical and current spreads vs. Treasuries for MBS and Agencies are listed below. MBS Agencies 15Y 30Y 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y 5YR High 312 238 182 159 175 168 5YR Low 72 54 -16 2 -5 25 5YR Avg 133 124 37 46 46 51 1YR High 143 105 31 38 47 50 1YR Low 97 54 -16 2 -5 25 1YR Avg 118 76 13 25 29 40 90 Day High 128 91 27 37 36 50 90 Day Low 106 54 9 9 16 25 90 Day Avg 117 74 19 25 27 37 30 Day High 129 91 17 30 31 30 30 Day Low 111 54 10 18 16 25 30 Day Avg 118 76 13 24 22 27 Last 121 82 17 25 27 28 Data Source: Bloomberg Fixed Income: Trading activity picked up in August as bankers took advantage of near historic low yield levels selling short maturing bonds to book gains and reinvested funds in longer duration bonds. Investors focused primarily on well - structured 2-5Y duration agency CMOs, preferring locked-out structures which were hard to come by. 10Y and 15Y MBS continued to see good demand despite the lofty premium dollar prices. Treasury yields continued to decline with the 2Y reaching an all-time intra-day low 0.45% on 8/24/10. By the close of the month the 2Y fell 8bp vs. the previous month. The 5Y, 10Y and 30Y fell 26bp, 44bp and 48bp respectively. Agency spreads did not give up too much ground with the 2Y widening 2bp, 5Y +6bp, 10Y +7bp and 30Y nearly unchanged. Agency MBS had mixed results. The 15Y sector did well and widened only 2bp, while the 30Y sector suffered amid growing speculation that a government induced refi wave may occur and concerns that lower yield levels in general may spark greater re-fi activity. 30Y MBS spreads widened out 30bp. Looking ahead, MBS prepayments are expected to increase as the refi index jumped for a 4th consecutive week and reached levels not seen since early 2009. However, the impact should be lessened due to many mortgage originators experiencing constrained capacity, extending loan lock-out periods to 90 days and instituting tighter underwriting standards. Additionally, with approximately 25% of mortgage holders underwater on their existing home loans, a weak jobs market and high fees and points associated with refinancing should dissuade some folks from doing so. Maxine Lew Director - Fixed Income 4 of 23
  • 6. BANK ACTIVITY Credit & Risk Management When evaluating this decade’s rate experience, we can see 3 times where market rates have changed by at least 4 points (over a 2 year time horizon). Two of these changes have been to the down side (falling rates) and we are now awaiting the uptick in market rates. As we can see from history, this uptick has the potential to be in the range of 4+ points (over a 2 year time horizon). Rolling 2 Year Change in Index (July ‐ to ‐ July) ‐6.00 ‐4.00 ‐2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 Fed Effective 5Y Swap 10Y Swap 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 This uptick has the potential to impact bank earnings from three perspectives. First on the funding side, banks will need to be diligent in holding the line on deposit pricing which may prove difficult. Many banks are currently flush with customer excess liquidity and that excess liquidity will tend to cycle out of the bank as alternative instrument options (non-bank) will become more prevalent as rates start to rise. Second on the loan side, earnings will be restrained by existing loan floors that are embedded in adjustable and/or variable rate loans. Short-term market rates will need to move upwards by at least 2 points to return these assets to an upward adjusting rate loan. Third and most importantly, as rates rise (especially over the next 3 points), there will be a significant and negative impact on rate risk assumed by individual borrowers. Unfortunately, as rates rise (which is good for bank earnings as adjustable rate produce additional interest income) credit quality will likely fall. Higher debt service payments (due to rising rates) will place additional strain/stress on credit quality by increasing debt service on borrowers and forcing some borrowers into default at a time where secondary sources of loan repayment (collateral) will still be suffering from the lingering impact of declining collateral values, all of which will increase loan losses. Prudently managed banks will incorporate note level ALM results (derived from their up 3 & 4 point rate shocks) into their note level Loan Stress Testing models to determine both expected levels of non-accrual loans as well as charge-offs/provisions associated with these loans. Once the value of non-accrual loans and loss/provision has been determined, these values need to be incorporated back into ALM models to determine the impact on; earnings, earnings sensitivity and capital. If these integration steps are not incorporated into bank risk assessment processes, then capital plans will be material distorted as significant amounts of risk will not be measured. Doug Hensley Managing Director 5 of 23
  • 7. BANK ACTIVITY Funding The following are some items that are frequent concerns today when we talk with bankers: 1. The bank is liquid 2. Investment and lending opportunities are difficult 3. The bank needs to earn more money The first item is becoming more of an issue for banks in general. One reason is related to regulatory and operational pressures as banks are typically carrying more on-balance sheet liquidity than in the past. Another reason is the difficult economic climate of today which affects both assets and liabilities – excess liquidity is not just an asset driven event. The results are clearly seen as the average loans to assets ratio has fallen below 70% of TA. Several years ago it was not uncommon to see banks with ratios over 80%. Not today. The reality is banks will likely have more conservative loans to assets ratios going forward, and this will affect the asset yields of banks, perhaps permanently. The second item is similar to the dilemma banks were facing in 1992-1995 when we were in a recession and interest rates were low. Holding fed funds sold as an asset typically resulted in a negative spread vs. the funding held against it, and pursuing investment and lending activity to boost yields was not without risks. Unlike the last time when interest rate risk was the primary concern, many banks today are also contending with capital, asset quality, and underwriting issues or concerns. Some banks are choosing to make or purchase loans, while others are not. This brings us to the third item - making more money. For most bankers, this traditionally means finding ways to move forward with lending and/or investing activity. This is a strategy that comes naturally to bankers, but banks must carefully manage the risks that come with this, especially in today’s environment. One of the most overlooked ways for a bank to increase its income (in any banking environment) is to make improvements in funding performance. Banking is rather simple at its core, as banks buy money on one side of the balance sheet and sell it on the other. How banks do this is important, as a characteristic of banks that fail or experience difficulty is often an elevated cost of funds. If your money selling activity is constrained, or if it results in elevated risk, then doesn’t it make sense to reduce your cost of buying money? For the banks that make funding performance a priority, the results can be dramatic. Over the last 18 quarters, one of our Liability and Strategic Coach clients in a competitive market was able to save (increase revenue) a cumulative $76 million due to it having lower funding costs than its national $1-3 billion TA peer group average. Currently, the bank is saving about $5.6 million per quarter compared to this peer group. The bank works very hard to ensure that its superior funding performance continues, and is careful not to take its eye off the ball which can be so easy to do. By having lower funding costs, the bank has been able to maintain a less intensive asset risk profile historically which is paying huge dividends today. Whether your bank is able to achieve results like this, or if it simply moves from the 70th COF percentile to the 50th, the performance improvements go directly to your bottom line, and can help reduce the overall risk profile of your bank. If you are interested in learning about your bank’s potential, or better yet, getting started on improving your bank’s performance, please give us a call. Greg Judge Liability and Strategic Consulting 6 of 23
  • 8. BANK ACTIVITY Loan Pricing and Customer Profitability Data mining to find profits While the primary purpose of our Relationship Profitability services is to identify the profitability of every customer, product and relationship officer at the bank, a side benefit is our ability mine the customer data for additional profit opportunities. The following are a few items we routinely look at. Waivers on deposit service charges – Is the bank waiving fees to its best or worst customers? It is common to find that over half of the customers who have had their fees waived are not profitable to the bank. While having the customer’s profitability certainly makes this analysis easier, it is also possible to simply view the customer’s overall relationship and make a high level judgment about the worthiness of waiving these fees. Deposit fee structure – With the changes in the overdraft fee assessments combined with the current low rate environment, free checking account products currently ranked toward the bottom of the list. As such, we routinely analyze the cost / benefit of applying service charges on these accounts. For the average $500 million commercial bank we estimated that there is a $.5 million to $1.5 million annual income opportunity to implementing service charges while not incurring significant attrition risk. Cross Sell opportunities – Cross sell ratios generally range between 2.1 and 2.7. However this number alone doesn’t readily show the underlying opportunities. Consider that over 50% of the customers have only one account with bank and that 20% - 25% of the customers did not have a checking account. Effective cross selling is essential in retaining more customers as studies show that the more products a customer uses, the lower the likelihood they are to leave and there are numerous opportunities. Data mining for cross sell opportunities should be a top priority at every bank. Utilization of floors - While we are normally strong proponents of utilizing floors in loan pricing strategy, we believe that in this interest rate environment the strategy of setting the initial rate to the floor will erode long term profitability. For example, take a loan priced at Prime + 1% with a floor of 5.5%. With Prime at 3.25%, the computed interest rate of that loan is 4.25%. However, with the floor, the initial rate for that borrower is at 5.5%. In doing so, the bank has placed a credit premium on this loan of 2.25% (5.5% floor less Prime of 3.25%). As market interest rates increase, the implied credit premium decreases to 1%. Yet the borrower’s actual credit risk profile may or may not have changed. In addition, the bank’s net interest margin will suffer when market interest rates start to rise. Not only will this loan act as a fixed rate loan for the first 125bp point increase, it will continue to be priced at only 1% over Prime for the life of the loan. The bank would have been better off pricing that loan at 2.25% over Prime, thus holding the credit premium constant over the life of the loan. Should that borrower’s credit quality change at some later date, the bank and the borrower can renegotiate terms at that time. At a minimum, an analysis should be performed to understanding the bank’s utilization of floors and how much of an increase in rates is required for these loans to move off of their floors. Loan renewals – How many loans are coming up for renewal in the next 6 months? With a tight credit market and deteriorating credit quality, an increase in loan rates may be warranted. Simply quantifying and understanding the impact of increasing spreads by 25bps – 100 bps on upcoming maturities is a worthy exercise for any ALCO group. For the average $500 million community bank, it is not unusual to see 10% - 20% of the portfolio renewing on annual basis, thus resulting in significant opportunities to reprice the portfolio in a short amount of time. 7 of 23
  • 9. BANK ACTIVITY Loan Pricing and Customer Profitability While overlaying customer profitability data on all of these analysis increases the power of the analytics, these analysis can still be done without the profit calculations. Doing so may yield significant profit opportunities. Probabilities of Default Month in Review – PD’s have remained mostly unchanged from the previous month. However, as we will be incorporating a recent review of cure rates and vintage performance, users can expect to see PD’s come down in BIG’s model in the near future. Kim Jackson Managing Director Mike Middleton Managing Director 8 of 23
  • 10. BANK ACTIVITY Loan Pricing and Customer Profitability Prime 2yrswap 5yrswap 10yr swap 3.25% 0.69% 1.64% 2.62% Yields Lending Class Prime 2yr 5yr 10yr Ag - farm land 5.02% 5.33% 6.02% 6.26% Ag - production 4.86% 5.17% 5.83% 6.07% Construction -Commercial 6.12% 6.64% Construction multifamily 6.12% 6.69% Construction Residential 6.12% 6.79% Construction Other 6.12% 6.94% Consumer 5.02% 5.33% 6.02% 6.26% Hotel 5.63% 5.98% 6.75% 7.03% Industrial 5.07% 5.39% 6.08% 6.33% Manufactured Housing 5.07% 5.39% 6.08% 6.33% Mixed Use 5.07% 5.39% 6.08% 6.33% Multifamily 5.12% 5.46% 6.16% 6.41% Office 5.12% 5.44% 6.14% 6.39% Retail 5.12% 5.44% 6.14% 6.39% Self Storage 5.02% 5.33% 6.02% 6.26% Other 5.12% 5.44% 6.14% 6.39% Spreads Lending Class Prime 2yr 5yr 10yr Ag - farm land 1.77% 4.64% 4.38% 3.64% Ag - production 1.61% 4.48% 4.19% 3.45% Construction -Commercial 2.87% 5.95% Construction multifamily 2.87% 6.00% Construction Residential 2.87% 6.10% Construction Other 2.87% 6.25% Consumer 1.77% 4.64% 4.38% 3.64% Hotel 2.38% 5.29% 5.11% 4.41% Industrial 1.82% 4.70% 4.44% 3.71% Manufactured Housing 1.82% 4.70% 4.44% 3.71% Mixed Use 1.82% 4.70% 4.44% 3.71% Multifamily 1.87% 4.77% 4.52% 3.79% Office 1.87% 4.75% 4.50% 3.77% Retail 1.87% 4.75% 4.50% 3.77% Self Storage 1.77% 4.64% 4.38% 3.64% Other 1.87% 4.75% 4.50% 3.77% For information regarding our Loan Pricing Model or Customer Profitability Services, please contact Kim Jackson, Mike Middleton or Janet Leung at 877-777-0412, info@bancinvestment.com 9 of 23
  • 11. BANK ACTIVITY BIG Metrics Texas ratio trend lines for Q2 leveled off slightly from Q1 as the nationwide Texas ratio average fell to 39.4% from 41.1% a quarter ago. The state of Washington had the highest Texas ratio but even there, the level declined slightly from Q1.The state of Michigan, last quarter’s Texas ratio “leader,” improved to 5th place, while the lowest Texas ratio in the nation was found in Massachusetts, which has had the lowest ratio for the past 5 quarters. For the record, Texas’ Texas ratio was 30.7% in Q2, putting the Lone Star state in 35th place overall. If you like data, you’ll love BIG Metrics. Give us a call today for your free tour. Michael Stinson Vice President – BIG Metrics 10 of 23
  • 12. Real Estate Market Trends - Special Report Overview According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, for the first time in 4Y growth was generated in consumption, fixed Office investments, exports, inventories and government expenditures. Wrapping up the 1H, GDP grew an annualized 2.4% 1 in the 2Q down from 3.7% in the 1Q. Real estate properties performance continued mixed, with multifamily properties gain leading the pack and retail still languishing. The 2H of 2010 may not look as brightly as the economy wanes. reported propertie Mutifamily Market The multifamily sector surfaced from its bottom, following a 2nd quarter of rising rents and posting the 1st quarter of falling vacancies in over 2Y. Net absorption totaled over 46k units, the largest quarterly gain in occupied space in 10Y of which 70% stemmed from existing buildings. However, completions remained 57% vacant, up from 53% in the 1Q, as asking rents topped existing properties by 15%. 1 in 10 new properties were at least 30% vacant. Performance may not grow in a linear fashion as long as job growth remains questionable. NY exemplified this behavior this quarter, with both vacancy and rents rising. As for the next several years, expect net absorption to continue around 100k units and annual completions to remain well below 100k units. Quarterly Cap Rates 2006-2010 National Quarterly Conditions Period Cap Rate Rent %Δ Vacancy Rate Present Qtr 2Q 10 7.30% Q3 09 $971 -2.0% 7.9% Market Low 1Q 06 6.14 Q4 09 964 -0.7 8.0 Market High 3Q 09 7.60 Q1 10 967 0.3 8.0 Q2 10 973 0.6 7.8 Top Markets Bottom Markets Y 09 964 -2.9 8.0 Net Charleston 4.8% Las Vegas -3.9% Y 10 978 1.5 7.8 and Colorado Springs 4.4 Tacoma -3.0 Y 11 995 1.7 7.2 completi Columbia 4.3 Westchester -2.3 Y 12 1,021 2.6 6.7 vacancie witnesse US Aggregate Revenue Growth -0.1 Y 13 1,052 3.0 6.4 Regiona asking Source: Reis, Inc. 11 of 23
  • 13. Real Estate Market Trends - Special Report Office Market fixed Office vacancies rose in 49 of 82 markets, falling from 60 in the 1Q and 67 at the end of 2009. The market dropped Overall, % 1.4mm sq. ft in occupied space in the quarter. However, submarkets with business districts posted a net absorption benefit operties gain of 2.6mm sq. ft. as some businesses attempt to catch the bottom and lock in lower rent prices. Only Pittsburgh net reported a YOY rise in revenue / sq. ft, although some submarkets reeled in growth over 10%. Overall, nearly half of all properties saw asking rents drop with effective rents falling another 80bp. 65 of 82 markets took on declines. of Y Quarterly Cap Rates 2006-2010 National Quarterly Conditions Q, Period Cap Rate Net Absorption Rent % Δ Vacancy Rate Present Qtr 2Q 10 7.37% Q3 09 -19.2 $22.87 -2.2% 16.6% this Market Low 2Q 07 6.22 Q4 09 -13.9 22.43 -1.9 17.0 to Market High 1Q 10 8.23 Q1 10 -10.8 22.25 -0.8 17.3 Q2 10 -1.4 22.07 -0.8 17.4 Top Markets Bottom Markets Y 09 -79.0 22.43 -8.9 17.0 Pittsburgh 2.2% Orange County -13.9% Y 10 -14.3 22.01 -1.9 17.7 New Haven 0.4 San Jose -13.7 Y 11 29.6 22.18 0.8 17.3 Charleston -0.2 Phoenix -12.6 Y 12 48.5 22.63 2.0 16.8 US Aggregate Revenue Growth -6.9 Y 13 59.5 23.29 2.9 16.1 Retail Market Regional & Super Regional Net absorption continued in the negative, dropping 2.2mm sq.ft. for neighborhood and community shopping centers as demand remained muted. With this in mind, Vacancy Rate completions totaled only 355k sq. ft. (the lowest quarterly addition in 10Y) leaving 3Q 09 8.6% vacancies up only 10bp, the lowest rise since the end of 2007. 31 of 80 markets 4Q 09 8.8 witnessed a rise in vacancies in the quarter while rents dropped in 67. 1Q 10 8.9 Regional and super regional malls hit the 7th consecutive quarter of both falling 2Q 10 9 asking rents and yet another record vacancy rate (9%). Quarterly Cap Rates 2006-2010 National Quarterly Conditions Period Cap Rate Net Absorption Rent Rent % Δ Vacancy Rate Present Qtr 2Q 10 8.58% Q3 09 -4.4 $16.89 -7.0% 10.3% Market Low 2Q 07 7.74 Q4 09 -2.5 16.75 -0.8 10.6 Market High 2Q 09 9.97 Q1 10 -2.5 16.62 -0.8 10.8 Q2 10 -2.2 16.53 -0.5 10.9 Top Markets Bottom Markets Y 09 -22.1 16.75 -3.7 10.6 Louisville 1.1% Providence -7.8% Y 10 -6.9 16.42 -2.0 11.3 Memphis -0.3 Orlando -7.6 Y 11 -1.6 16.30 -0.7 12.0 Denver -0.9 Rochester -7.5 Y 12 17.9 16.37 0.4 11.9 US Aggregate Revenue Growth -3.7 Y 13 32.2 16.62 1.5 11.3 Source: Reis, Inc. 12 of 23
  • 14. Real Estate Market Trends - Special Report Industrial Market dropped Overall, industrial performance will gain from growth in the global economy and port cities will be among the first to sorption benefit. For some markets, like Dallas and Houston, the turn around will begin in the latter half of this year with positive ttsburgh net absorption. As for the rest, the 2H will slow compared to the first half as the domestic economy wanes. all Top Markets 2009 National Quarterly Conditions Baltimore -1.1% Net Absorption Rent %Δ Vacancy Rate Jacksonville -1.5 Y08 -1.7 $4.65 -1.1% 10.2% Pittsburgh -1.9 Y09 -72.7 4.35 -6.5 11.4 US Aggregate Rent Growth -6.5 Y10 -16.7 4.18 -3.9 11.8 Bottom Markets 2009 Y11 43.9 4.19 0.2 11.5 Miami -9.6% Y12 71.8 4.28 2.1 11.1 Palm Beach -9.4 Y13 82.4 4.39 2.6 10.9 Tampa - St. Petersburg -8.8 Y14 109.3 4.52 3 10.6 Source: Reis, Inc. 13 of 23
  • 15. INTEREST RATE RECAP 08/31/10 07/30/10 06/30/10 08/31/09 SHORT RATES Now Now Change Prior Change Now Change to Fed Funds 0.25% 0.25% 0.00% 0.25% 0.00% 0.25% 0.00% positive Prime 3.25% 3.25% 0.00% 3.25% 0.00% 3.25% 0.00% 1M Libor 0.26% 0.31% -0.05% 0.35% -0.09% 0.26% 0.00% 2M Libor 0.27% 0.37% -0.10% 0.43% -0.16% 0.28% -0.01% 3M Libor 0.30% 0.45% -0.16% 0.53% -0.24% 0.35% -0.05% 4M Libor 0.36% 0.52% -0.16% 0.60% -0.24% 0.52% -0.16% 5M Libor 0.43% 0.59% -0.16% 0.67% -0.24% 0.67% -0.24% 6M Libor 0.50% 0.67% -0.17% 0.75% -0.25% 0.76% -0.26% 1Y Libor 0.84% 1.04% -0.19% 1.17% -0.33% 1.33% -0.49% TREASURY RATES 2Y Note 0.47% 0.55% -0.08% 0.61% -0.14% 1.33% -0.86% 3Y Note 0.70% 0.82% -0.13% 0.97% -0.27% 1.95% -1.25% 4Y Note 1.03% 1.20% -0.17% 1.43% -0.40% 2.41% -1.38% 5Y Note 1.33% 1.60% -0.27% 1.78% -0.44% 2.76% -1.43% 7Y Note 1.92% 2.30% -0.38% 2.41% -0.50% 3.23% -1.31% 10Y Note 2.47% 2.91% -0.44% 2.93% -0.47% 3.62% -1.15% 30Y Bond 3.52% 3.99% -0.47% 3.89% -0.37% 4.09% -0.58% SWAPS FIX VS. 3M LIBOR 2Y Swap 0.66% 0.73% -0.07% 0.97% -0.31% 1.33% -0.67% 3Y Swap 0.95% 1.07% -0.12% 1.33% -0.38% 1.95% -0.99% 4Y Swap 1.26% 1.43% -0.16% 1.71% -0.44% 2.41% -1.15% 5Y Swap 1.56% 1.78% -0.21% 2.05% -0.49% 2.76% -1.20% 7Y Swap 2.05% 2.36% -0.32% 2.56% -0.51% 3.23% -1.18% 10Y Swap 2.49% 2.89% -0.41% 3.00% -0.51% 3.62% -1.13% 15Y Swap 2.87% 3.37% -0.50% 3.42% -0.55% 3.91% -1.04% Month to Month Treasury Yield Change -0.05% -0.08% -0.14% -0.13% -0.17% -0.23% -0.27% -0.32% -0.38% -0.41% -0.44% -0.47% -0.50% 2Y Note 3Y Note 4Y Note 5Y Note 7Y Note 10Y Note 30Y Bond 14 of 23
  • 16. PROJECTED FEDERAL FUNDS Survey Date: 8/10/2010 Dealer Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Action Economics 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 1.00% 1.50% Barclays Capital * 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% BBVA 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% BMO Financial 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% BOT - Mitsubishi 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% Commerzbank AG 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% Credit Suisse FB * 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Deutsche Bank * 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% Fannie Mae 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% First Trust Adv. 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Goldman Sachs 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Janney Montgomery 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.75% 0.75% 1.00% JP Morgan Chase * 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% n/a n/a Moodys Capital Markets 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.75% 1.00% Morgan Keegan 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 1.25% Morgan Stanley * 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% Nomura Securities* 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Nord LB 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% Scotia Capital 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Societe Generale 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 1.25% 2.00% Standard Chartered 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.75% 1.00% State Street Global 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% UBS* 0.25% 0.25% n/a n/a n/a n/a Wells Fargo & Co 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 0.50% Median 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% Average 0.25% 0.26% 0.30% 0.40% 0.66% 0.97% High 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% Low 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% *Primary Dealers 15 of 23
  • 17. SHORT TERM MARKET EXPECTATIONS FEDERAL FUNDS FUTURES Federal Funds Futures Sep-10 0.25 Oct-10 0.25 1.00 Nov-10 0.25 Dec-10 0.25 0.75 Jan-11 0.25 Feb-11 0.25 0.50 Mar-11 0.25 Apr-11 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 May-11 0.25 Jun-11 0.25 0.00 Oct-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 May-11 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 0.25 EURODOLLAR FUTURES Sep-10 0.32 Eurodollar Futures Dec-10 0.42 2.25 Mar-11 0.47 Jun-11 0.55 1.75 Sep-11 0.66 1.68 Dec-11 0.82 1.25 Mar-12 0.98 1.33 Jun-12 1.16 0.75 Sep-12 1.33 0.66 0.32 Dec-12 1.51 0.47 0.25 Mar-13 1.68 Jun-12 Jun-11 Sep- Dec- Sep- Dec- Sep- Dec- Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-13 11 11 12 10 10 12 Jun-13 1.86 PRIME RATE FUTURES Sep-10 3.02 Prime Rate Futures Dec-10 3.12 5.00 Mar-11 3.17 Jun-11 3.25 4.50 4.38 Sep-11 3.36 Dec-11 3.52 4.00 4.03 Mar-12 3.68 3.52 3.50 Jun-12 3.86 Sep-12 4.03 3.02 Dec-12 4.21 3.00 Jun- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Sep- Dec- Mar- Sep- Dec- Mar- 11 12 Mar-13 4.38 13 11 12 11 10 12 10 12 11 Jun-13 4.56 16 of 23
  • 18. LONG TERM MARKET EXPECTATIONS TREASURIES NOW as of 8/31/2010 Current Treasury Curve 1YR 0.24 2YR 0.48 3.30 3.20 3YR 0.70 5YR 1.33 2.45 10YR 2.47 2.47 1.70 1.33 0.95 0.70 0.24 0.48 0.20 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR TREASURIES 1Y FORWARD as of 8/31/2010 1YR 0.72 1Y Forward vs. Now 2YR 0.93 3YR 1.28 3.20 2.75 5YR 1.91 10YR 2.75 2.45 2.47 1.91 1.70 1.33 1.28 0.93 0.95 0.72 0.48 0.70 0.24 0.20 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR TREASURIES 2Y FORWARD as of 8/31/2010 2Y Forward vs. Now 1YR 1.15 2YR 1.56 3.20 3YR 1.91 3.00 5YR 2.50 2.50 2.47 2.45 10YR 3.00 1.91 1.56 1.70 1.33 1.15 0.95 0.48 0.70 0.24 0.20 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR 17 of 23
  • 19. OTHER IMPORTANT DATA LIBOR MARKET EXPECTATIONS 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR LIBOR 6M Forward 0.60 1.07 1.82 3.03 3.14 LIBOR 1Y Forward 0.72 1.19 1.98 3.19 3.18 LIBOR 2Y Forward 0.95 1.58 2.31 3.51 3.24 LIBOR 6M Forward LIBOR 1Y Forward 2Y Forward vs. 1Y Forward vs. 6M Forward LIBOR 2Y Forward 4.25 3.24 3.25 3.18 3.14 2.31 2.25 1.98 1.82 1.25 0.95 0.72 0.60 0.25 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR BALTIC DRY INDEX - 1 YEAR HISTORY Last Price 2713 High 11/19/09 4661 Average 2979 Low 7/15/10 1700 18 of 23
  • 20. OTHER IMPORTANT DATA OIL PRICES (INFLATION) - 5 YEAR HISTORY Last Price 71.84 High 7/03/08 145.29 Average 74.61 Low 12/19/08 33.87 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JOBS PICTURE) - 5 YEAR HISTORY Last Price 9.6 High 10/31/09 10.1 Average 6.5 Low 10/31/06 4.4 19 of 23
  • 21. OTHER IMPORTANT DATA GDP (UNDERLYING ECONOMIC GROWTH) - 5Y HISTORY Last Price 1.6 High 3/31/08 5.4 Average 1.0 Low 12/31/08 -6.8 1 MONTH LIBOR (APPROX. BANK FUNDING COSTS) - 5Y HISTORY Ask price 0.25781 High 9/07/07 5.82375 Average 2.98330 Low 3/01/10 0.22813 20 of 23
  • 22. BOND YIELD FORECAST Market Yield Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 US 3 M Libor 0.30 0.48 0.56 0.76 1.14 1.52 US 3M Libor 1.70 1.52 1.35 1.14 1.00 0.65 0.56 0.30 0.30 Market Yield Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Market Yield Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Fed Funds Target 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75 1.00 Fed Funds Rate 1.25 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 Market Yield Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Market Yield Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 US 10Y 2.47 3.01 3.20 3.44 3.73 3.93 US 2Y 0.47 0.78 0.97 1.24 1.61 1.95 spread 2.36 2.36 2.28 2.23 2.08 1.98 US 10Y 10Y VS 2Y US 2Y 4.40 3.93 3.01 3.40 3.44 2.47 2.40 1.95 1.40 1.61 0.47 0.97 0.40 Market Yield Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 21 of 23
  • 23. KEY UPCOMING DATES FOMC MEETING DATES FOMC VOTING MEMBERS 01/28/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 1 Ben Bernanke (Chairman) 03/18/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 2 James Bullard 04/29/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 3 William Dudley 06/24/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 4 Elizabeth Duke 08/12/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 5 Thomas Hoenig 09/23/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 6 Donald Kohn 11/04/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 7 Sandra Pianalto 12/16/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 8 Eric Rosengren 01/27/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 9 Daniel Tarullo 03/16/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 10 Kevin Warsh 04/29/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 06/24/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth FOMC ALTERNATE MEMBERS 08/12/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 1 Christine Cumming 09/23/10 2 Charles Evans 11/04/10 3 Richard Fisher 12/16/10 4 Narayana Kocherlakota 01/26/11 5 Charles Plosser KEY UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA Date Indicator Date Indicator 9/1/2010 Construction Spending MoM 9/17/2010 Consumer Price Index 9/1/2010 ISM Manufacturing & Prices Paid 9/20/2010 NAHB Housing Market Index 9/1/2010 Vehicle Sales 9/21/2010 Building Permits & Housing Starts 9/2/2010 Pending Home Sales 9/22/2010 House Price Index 9/3/2010 Employment Report 9/23/2010 Leading Indicators 9/8/2010 Consumer Credit 9/23/2010 Existing Home Sales 9/9/2010 Trade Balance 9/24/2010 Durable Goods Orders 9/10/2010 Wholesale Inventories 9/24/2010 New Home Sales 9/13/2010 Monthly Budget Statement 9/27/2010 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 9/14/2010 Business Inventories 9/28/2010 Consumer Confidence 9/14/2010 Advance Retail Sales 9/28/2010 S&P/ Case Shiller Home Price Ind 9/15/2010 Capacity Utilization 9/28/2010 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 9/15/2010 Empire Manufacturing 9/30/2010 Personal Consumption 9/15/2010 Industrial Production 9/30/2010 GDP Price Index 9/15/2010 Import Price Index 9/30/2010 Core PCE QoQ 9/16/2010 Producer Price Index 9/30/2010 Chicago Purchasing Manager 9/17/2010 U. of Michigan Confidence 9/30/2010 NAPM-Milwaukee 22 of 23
  • 24. DISCLAIMER The information contained in this document is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is not involved in trading or financial service activities, or responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify the Banc Investment Group immediately at 877-777-0412. This information does not constitute either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities referred to herein. Offers to sell and solicitations of offers to buy the securities are made only by, and this information must be read in conjunction with, the final Prospectus Supplement and the related Prospectus or, if not registered under the securities laws, the final Offering Memorandum (the “Offering Document”). Information contained herein does not purport to be complete and is subject to the same qualifications and assumptions, and should be considered by investors only in the light of the same warnings, lack of assurances and representations and other precautionary matters, as disclosed in the Offering Document. This information may include certain assumptions and no representation is made that it is accurate or complete or that any returns indicated will be achieved. Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on returns. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Price and availability are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of mutual fund investments may fluctuate so that investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Mutual funds are not FDIC insured, not bank guaranteed and may lose value. Customers should rely on their own outside counsel, regulator, or accounting firm to address specific circumstances. Additional information is available on request. Banc Investment Group is a member of FINRA and SIPC, and the sister company of Pacific Coast Bankers' Bank. This document cannot be reproduced or redistributed outside of your institution without the written consent of the Banc Investment Group. Banc Investment Group is the sister company of PCBB, and all securities are offered through BIG. Source for data is Bloomberg, dealer provided documents and proprietary calculations or research. This package is created specifically for independent banks as an added monthly service and provided by Steve Brown, Chris Nichols and the rest of the team at Banc Investment Group. 340 Pine Street, Suite 401, San Francisco, CA 94104 ph. 877-777-0412 23 of 23