The document provides an overview of economic and banking industry trends in July 2010. Key points:
- The US economy showed weakening data with falling consumer confidence and downward GDP revisions. Unemployment fell but largely due to fewer people in the labor force.
- For banks, returns are expected to be in the single digits over the next 5 years due to headwinds like a slow economic recovery, higher FDIC costs, and new regulations. However, banks that focus on profitable customers and 3-year strategies may fare better.
- Lending activity remains low as deposits outpace loans. Competition is fierce for larger commercial loans. Interest rates fell further, putting pressure on banks' margins.
-
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
Bridgepoint Merchant Banking releases an update on the Midwest banking industry, including commentary on selected industry transactions. Reporting and insights on valuation cycles, efficiency ratios and the US bank loan landscape are also covered.
6- What's Old is New: Fixed-Rate Bonds are Back in Style- Catherine CrewsMassDevelopment
An overview of what the bond market is today, how it got hwere, and where it's headed in the future by Catehrine Crews of Bankof America Merrill Lynch.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Aug-Sept 2016Jon Weaver
The major problem with all automated home estimate sites is they are limited to the data on hand. Typically, that includes only square footage, number of beds and baths, recent sales prices and assessor tax values.
What is not included are location nuances such as is the property on a quiet street or next to a main thoroughfare. Did the owners remove that cheap carpeting and replace it with hardwood floors? Were the appliances replaced with high-end
hardware? Granite countertops or tile?
Special report by epic research of 14 december 2017Epic Research
Epic Research is leading financial advisory company, We provide a daily special report on each segment of share market that helps traders to get a better overview of the market. It also improves return on investment.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | June 2022 | Bond Pain and Perspective on Bank V...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | December 2019 | 2020 Outlook: Good Fundamentals...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Bridgepoint Merchant Banking releases an update on the Midwest banking industry, including commentary on selected industry transactions. Reporting and insights on valuation cycles, efficiency ratios and the US bank loan landscape are also covered.
6- What's Old is New: Fixed-Rate Bonds are Back in Style- Catherine CrewsMassDevelopment
An overview of what the bond market is today, how it got hwere, and where it's headed in the future by Catehrine Crews of Bankof America Merrill Lynch.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Aug-Sept 2016Jon Weaver
The major problem with all automated home estimate sites is they are limited to the data on hand. Typically, that includes only square footage, number of beds and baths, recent sales prices and assessor tax values.
What is not included are location nuances such as is the property on a quiet street or next to a main thoroughfare. Did the owners remove that cheap carpeting and replace it with hardwood floors? Were the appliances replaced with high-end
hardware? Granite countertops or tile?
Special report by epic research of 14 december 2017Epic Research
Epic Research is leading financial advisory company, We provide a daily special report on each segment of share market that helps traders to get a better overview of the market. It also improves return on investment.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | June 2022 | Bond Pain and Perspective on Bank V...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | December 2019 | 2020 Outlook: Good Fundamentals...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | November 2022 | Community Bank Loan Portfolios ...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Riding the Tide: Navigating Through a Rising Interest Rate Environmenticiciprumf
We highlight our view on the rise in interest rates and the measures we have taken in our debt scheme portfolios to sail through the volatility in the fixed-income market. Check out the PDF to know more.
Pacific Asset Management is sub-advisor to the AdvisorShares Pacific Asset Enhanced Floating Rate ETF (FLRT)*
2014 has seen the consensus of higher Treasury yields and economic activity fail to materialize. Lower rates and risk premiums have led to strong returns year-to-date. In this commentary, Portfolio Managers David Weismiller, Michael Marzouk, and Bob Boyd discuss the current market environment, outlook, and portfolio positioning.
*Effective but not available for sale at this time. Go to www.advisorshares.com for more information.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | December 2022 | Bank M&A 2022 - TurbulenceMercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | October 2020 | Low Rates and Tighter NIMs Spur ...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Ride the Short Duration Wave - June 2019iciciprumf
Triggers to watch out for -
Current situation in the Fixed Income space
Our Outlook on what lies ahead
Segment of the yield curve, which stands to benefit
Read the full document to know more.
Borrowing costs for middle-market debt issuers generally declined during the third quarter, despite a modest increase in leverage levels and little change in benchmark rates. The Fed, as expected, left benchmark interest rates unchanged in the third quarter, but did announce a program to gradually reduce its balance sheet from $4.5 trillion (a result of recessionary quantitative easing) to $3 trillion over the next three years. Thus, the prevailing combination of low borrowing costs, high leveragability and a generally benign default rate outlook, presents an attractive backdrop for issuance. This "perfect storm" of market conditions provides a compelling (albeit narrowing) window for middle-market issuers.
Mercer Capital's Business Development Companies Quarterly Newsletter | Q4 201...Mercer Capital
Business development companies are an important and growing source of funding for middle market companies. Along with private equity and other investment funds, BDCs provide billions of dollars of investment capital to private companies in every segment of the economy.
For over thirty years, Mercer Capital has met the valuation needs of the same middle market companies to which BDCs and other funds provide capital.
This quarterly newsletter tracks the financial and stock market performance of the public BDCs.
Mercer Capital's Atlantic Coast Bank Watch | August 2013Mercer Capital
The August 2013 issue of Bank Watch is available now at www.mercercapital.com, and features articles by Jeff Davis, Madeleine Davis, and the announcement of an upcoming webinar on the recently finalized capital rules.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
2. BANK ACTIVITY
Economy
The dog days of summer, so far have been filled with weakening economic data and
consternation around financial regulatory reform. Both have caused heartache for bankers and
both are causing bankers to relook at their 2010 budget and decide what will become of 2011.
For the markets in general, equities continue to be more upsetting than US’s World Cup
performance, as the DOW fell 2.49% for the month and the S & P dropped 3.74%. Fixed income
continued its bubble as yields fell some 30bp on average across the bank-related curve.
For the economy, consumer confidence fell by a whopping 9.8 points in June to 52.9%.The 3rd
revision of 1Q GDP dropped by 0.3%, which was the second downward revision and now puts
annualized GDP for the year a little above 3% which is a far cry from the 5.2% once hoped for at
the end of 2009. Construction spending fell by 0.2% in May, distancing itself from its 30.6% peak
in March ’06.
Finally, the month wrapped up with a jobs report that had unemployment falling to 9.5%, its
lowest level since June 2009 and better than expectations. While this would be a data point to
rejoice on, the drop was associated with a huge downward change in the labor force. Adjusting
for that correction, household employment fell sharply during the month. Consequently, the drop
in the unemployment rate is not the positive news it would have been if jobs were being created
more quickly than the labor force was growing. Nearly 1.3mm new jobs have been created in this
survey since the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, 14.6mm people are still officially
unemployed. In addition, there are another 5.9mm people who say they want a job but are not
currently looking for one. In addition, another 8.6mm people are working part-time because of
slack economic conditions. It will take many years before "full employment" is re-attained.
On the strategic front, the month of June has marked a time when more banks than ever have
decided that their long run objectives will be to sell or merge. If you run simulations for an
average bank, 5Y returns come out to single digits because of the following factors: the economy
that will not show strong growth until 2012; higher FDIC insurance assessments; and, regulatory
pressure for greater liquidity, higher capital/reserves, and lower leverage. Add to that core set of
assumptions $115k+ of additional compliance costs and 15% lower revenues due to new
financial regulations, and it is hard to see how this is an industry that will make good use of hard-
to-attract capital for some time.
If that seems like a couple paragraphs of doom and gloom, it is, but there is hope. More than half
the banks have given up hope or are operating as if it was business as usual. With half the year
gone, smart banks are recommitting themselves to restructuring their deposit base to bring in
higher DDA balances and less interest rate sensitive customers by expanding cash management
services, while focusing on acquiring more profitable customers. These banks that continue to
manage asset quality (an area where bankers have made impressive strides), but start working
on customer profitability strategies, can now increase market share for those customers that
really drive profit. Banks that can shift mix from 10% to 20%+ high-value customers, can move
their bank back to double digit returns despite all the above mentioned headwinds.
While the tendency in hard times is to focus on the next 6-month period, banks that devote more
resources and effort to the 3Y horizon will find that moral will improve and the return on that effort
will be fruitful.
Chris Nichols
President & CEO
1 of 18
3. BANK ACTIVITY
Lending Activity
Deposit inflows and shrinking loans continue to put pressure on banks to invest. Most community
banks have paid down large amounts of higher cost deposits. Many larger community banks are
also close to stabilizing their nonperforming loan portfolio. With capital bolstered and reserves
padded, the lack of loan volume continues to be a substantial drag on income. We believe that
commercial credits are likely to start to accumulate inventories and boost capital expenditures
and this should soon lead to higher external financing needs (leading to more loan demand).
Competition for credit is fierce, especially for larger sized loans ($1mm plus) and non-real estate
centered credits. Banks that cannot price credit on risk-adjusted and overhead-adjusted bases
are at a real disadvantage. With interest rates falling throughout the month of June, five year
fixed rate loans are competitively priced at approximately 4.75% to 5.25% and 10 year fixed rate
loans at are competitively priced at approximately 5.75% to 6.25%. Banks targeting high quality
credits must be able to match this pricing in order to gain loan business.
Banks have been telling us that they are fearful that FASB will move GAAP to require fair value
for banks’ loans and deposits. If FASB is successful in this endeavor, most banks would cease
extending fixed rate loans beyond two years without the use of hedging instruments. Speaking of
hedging, while the financial regulatory reform has not yet been signed into law, the proposed
changes are intended to make basic hedging more onerous on banks that use simple swaps,
caps and floors. Banks using hedges on their own balance sheet may see increased requirement
for capital, reporting and documentation. Our BLP program offers a simple solution and a viable
alternative to banks that do not want derivatives on their balance sheet.
Ed Kofman
Managing Director - Derivatives Desk
2 of 18
4. BANK ACTIVITY
Certificate of Deposit Issuance
Historically, activity heightens in the brokered CD market during quarter-end months, but this has
not been the case the past few quarters. Overall issuance in the brokered CD market is down
roughly 50% from a year ago. Though the number of banks utilizing brokered deposits may be
down, there remains very strong demand from retail, and rates continue to trade at historical
lows. Further deterioration in the equity market and lower fixed income investment yields will keep
this trend going for July. The combination makes this market an excellent time to issue to the
extent you have use and room for wholesale funds.
Additionally, the vast majority of banks are extending out the curve, 2yrs and out, as bankers are
becoming more and more opportunistic. Step-up callable issues, whereby the bank retains the
option to call if rates further fall or funding is no longer needed, continue to garner more interest
from banks. This tactic efficiently manages convexity, as it allows liability extension while
protecting net interest margin. Also, the premium for the call option is negligible, as investors are
less concerned about these deposits being called. We expect issuance in these liability structures
to become more prevalent as bankers are becoming more comfortable with these deposits.
Lastly, we anticipate rates to tick back up a bit come mid to late July as banks get the quarter
behind them and start to jump back into our market.
Don Saunders
Managing Director - Brokered CD's
3 of 18
5. BANK ACTIVITY
Fixed Income
Historical and current spreads vs. Treasuries for MBS and Agencies are listed below:
MBS Agencies
15Y 30Y 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y
5YR High 312 238 182 159 175 168
5YR Low 72 59 -16 2 -5 32
5YR Avg 118 125 37 46 46 51
1YR High 153 107 31 50 47 57
1YR Low 97 59 -16 2 -5 32
1YR Avg 121 81 12 22 27 42
90 Day 132 93 31 37 44 50
90 Day Low 100 60 9 2 30 33
90 Day Avg 115 75 21 13 36 41
30 Day 127 89 27 37 36 50
30 Day Low 106 67 13 9 30 44
30 Day Avg 116 78 21 24 33 46
Last 121 82 13 33 31 44
Data Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income: June was quite a busy month, as we saw more MBS pass-through buyers wade
back into the market. Their wait for higher yield levels never seemed to materialize. The dovish
policy statement from the latest FOMC meeting helped nudge investors off their beach chairs into
the MBS pool party, as it appears the Fed will be on hold for a while. We also saw quite a bit of
selling take place as clients looked to boost loan loss reserves and book gains to improve short-
term performance for the quarter. Our bankers continued to report deposit growth outpacing loan
growth as well as receiving a constant stream of cashflows from their called agencies bonds.
Despite the low yield levels and lofty premiums, investors also focused on short-duration agency
CMOs and replaced called collateral with short-locked out callable agencies.
Treasury yields tanked vs. the prior month as the European debt crises, losses in the equity
markets and concerns of slower global growth weighed on Treasuries. The 2Y yield fell 17bp vs.
the prior month and reached an all time low (in the past 5Y) of 0.60%. The 5Y and 10Y yields
dropped 32bp and 36bp respectively. The 10Y yield fell below 3.00% to 2.93%, a low last seen in
April ’09. The 30Y yield fell as well by 32bp. Agencies performed well due to limited supply.
Spreads tightened by 13bp, 4bp and 2bp respectively in the 2Y, 10Y and 30Y part of the curve.
The 5Y spreads however widened by 24bp. MBS pass thrus held their ground as well, with the
15Y sector tightening by 6bp and 30s coming in 2bp.
Looking ahead, we expect mortgages to continue to perform well as bank demand increases due
to limited loan opportunities and foreign investors’ sponsorship remains strong. Prepayments
speeds should not pick up any time soon despite the lower rate environment due to these factors
deterring homeowners from refinancing: 25% of mortgage holders are upside down on their
notes, tighter underwriting standards, higher refinance fees and weak job growth.
Maxine Lew
Director - Fixed Income
4 of 18
6. BANK ACTIVITY
Credit & Risk Management
Credit Risk: Payment and loss given defaults continue to advance in most regions of the country.
Loan stress and ALLL models should be updated to reflect the changing landscape of both
elevated default rates as well as changing loss given default rates.
Total CRE Payment Default Rate Non‐Real Estate Payment Default
by FDIC Region Rate by FDIC Region
20 6
15
4
10
2
5
0 0
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
Atlanta Chicago Dallas Kansas New York San Atlanta Chicago Dallas Kansas New York San
City Francisco City Francisco
C&D CRE/Mult C & I Consumer
CRE Loss Given Default Rate Non‐Real Estate Loss Given
by FDIC Region Default Rate by FDIC Region
30 60
20 40
10 20
0 0
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
31‐Dec‐07
31‐Dec‐08
31‐Dec‐09
Atlanta Chicago Dallas Kansas New York San Atlanta Chicago Dallas Kansas New York San
City Francisco City Francisco
C&D CRE/Mult C & I Consumer
Rate Risk: The efficiency of deposit funding has improved since the implementation of the
national rate cap program. ALM modeling assumptions should be reviewed and changes made if
applicable.
Funding Efficiency
(National Rates vs Libor Curve)
12 Mo. CD
6 Mo. CD
3 Mo. CD
MMDA
(0.30) (0.20) (0.10) ‐ 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50
Current Q1‐2010 Q4‐2009 Q3‐2009 Q2‐2009
Doug Hensley
Managing Director
5 of 18
7. BANK ACTIVITY
Funding
How is a bank supposed to take care of its “good” customers with today’s low interest rates?
Most banks are working hard to maintain pricing discipline and bring their funding costs down as
much as possible. Every basis point reduction represents additional income for your bank.
Let’s say your bank has set its deposit rates where it thinks appropriate. How does it handle the
situation when a deposit customer asks whether you can “do any better” than what they see on
the rate board? Some banks will match the rates of a competitor or will pay whatever they think
is necessary to win the customer’s deposit.
Another tactic is to exercise control over the process to prevent the bank’s employees from being
overly generous with rate matching. A bank may give its sales staff discretion to pay a pre-
determined rate bump over the bank’s posted rate. Some reserve this for only the “good”
customers. Typically, the pre-set rate bump is 25 bps – some bumps are even higher.
Unfortunately, there are some flaws with this practice. The first is banks do not typically do a very
good job of defining what a “good” customer is which can result is the exception becoming the
rule. The second is failing to recognize the proportionality of the rate bump. What sounds worse,
a 25 bps rate bump, or paying 150% of the bank’s posted rate? In some instances, there is no
difference between the two. Would you consciously instruct your sales staff to pay 150-125% of
the bank’s posted rates to its customers? Your bank may be doing this right now.
Rate Bumps and Bonus Percentages
Base Rate 25 bps Rate Bump
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
4.50 5.00
2.00 4.00
3.00 3.50
1.00 2.00 2.50
1.50
0.50 1.00
0.00
0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25
50% 25% 17% 13% 10% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5%
Combined Rate, and Rate Bump as Percentage of Base Rate
A 25 bps rate bump may have been a reasonable pricing variance with a 4.50% deposit product,
but it may be excessive at today’s interest rate levels. The 12 month FDIC national average CD
rate is .74% currently, and shorter-term products are even lower.
When we work with our Coach clients, we help them review their current pricing practices to
ensure they are positive, and do not result in unintended consequences. Further, we also help
them develop pricing, training, and marketing strategies which have proven to be successful
when adopted by our other clients – and we measure the progress and effectiveness of the
strategies over time. How is your bank doing?
Greg Judge
Liability and Strategic Consulting
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8. BANK ACTIVITY
Loan Pricing and Customer Profitability
With the prohibition of paying interest on business checking accounts close to being repealed,
prepare for significant changes and opportunities in the deposit gathering business. While the
rate environment and economic outlook will play a large role in the speed at which changes and
opportunities will occur, the following are few things to expect:
- Decline in off balance sheet sweeps and repo sweeps – Sweeps have typically
existed for two reasons. First, it serves as a mechanism for a bank’s customer to earn
interest while having the liquidity privileges of a checking account. Secondly, customers
have swept their funds to an off balance sheet or repo in a desire to mimic the perceived
increased safety of a money fund or the collateral of a repo. While it is difficult to
estimate how much in total swept funds are done simply to earn a return, we estimate
that at least 50% - 60% of all swept funds would come back on the balance sheet if this
rule passes.
- Significant variations in pricing strategies – Expect some institutions to pay high rates
in an attempt to attract new funds that have historically only resided in money funds
- Relationship based pricing – Look for banks to implement a relationship based pricing
approach where the interest rate paid and the service charge assessed is based on the
overall relationship and not simply one product.
- Increased use of data mining and sensitivity scoring – Combined with a relationship
based pricing approach, expect to see programs base pricing on the sensitivity of the
customer to changing interest rates. Doing so, will provide for more accurate pricing on a
per relationship basis.
The business checking account has historically been the most profitable product at most banks.
Banks will need to implement strategies to ensure that the profits from this account are protected
while concurrently seizing upon the opportunity to attract funds that have historically resided
outside the banking system. Under the current proposed legislation, banks would be permitted to
pay interest on business in a year. Our advice: Start planning now. Put it as a topic on your
ALCO or New Product Committee as the year will go by quickly.
Kim Jackson
Managing Director
Mike Middleton
Managing Director
Loan Pricing and Customer Profitability
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9. BANK ACTIVITY
BIG Metrics - 1Q Performance Summary
Michael Stinson
Vice President – BIG Metrics
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13. LONG TERM MARKET EXPECTATIONS
TREASURIES NOW as of 7/01/2010
Current Treasury Curve
1YR 0.32
2YR 0.64 3.30
3.30
3YR 1.01
2.95
5YR 1.81
2.55
10YR 2.95
1.81
1.80
1.05
1.01
0.32 0.64
0.30
1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR
TREASURIES 1Y FORWARD as of 7/01/2010
1YR 0.97 1Y Forward vs. Now
2YR 1.35
3.27
3YR 1.78 3.30
5YR 2.49 2.95
10YR 3.27 2.55
2.49
1.78 1.81
1.80
1.35
1.01
1.05
0.97 0.64
0.30 0.32
1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR
TREASURIES 2Y FORWARD as of 7/01/2010
2Y Forward vs. Now
1YR 1.74
2YR 2.18
3.70 3.53
3YR 2.60
3.17
5YR 3.17 2.95
2.85 2.60
10YR 3.53
2.18
2.00 1.81
1.74
1.01
1.15
0.64
0.32
0.30
1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR
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14. OTHER IMPORTANT DATA
LIBOR MARKET EXPECTATIONS
1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR
LIBOR 6M Forward 0.93 1.28 1.68 2.37 3.20
LIBOR 1Y Forward 1.22 1.65 2.05 2.68 3.39
LIBOR 2Y Forward 2.08 2.48 2.81 3.26 3.75
LIBOR 6M Forward
LIBOR 1Y Forward 2Y Forward vs. 1Y Forward vs. 6M Forward
LIBOR 2Y Forward
4.25
3.75
3.50 3.39
3.20
2.75
2.81
2.05
2.08
2.00
1.68
1.25 1.22
0.93
0.50
1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR
BALTIC DRY INDEX - 1 YEAR HISTORY
Last Price 2406
High 11/19/09 4661
Average 3133
Low 9/24/09 2163
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15. OTHER IMPORTANT DATA
OIL PRICES (INFLATION) - 5 YEAR HISTORY
Last Price 75.63
High 7/03/08 145.29
Average 74.11
Low 12/19/08 33.87
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JOBS PICTURE) - 5 YEAR HISTORY
Last Price 9.7
High 10/31/09 10.1
Average 6.2
Low 10/31/06 4.4
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16. OTHER IMPORTANT DATA
GDP (UNDERLYING ECONOMIC GROWTH) - 5Y HISTORY
Last Price 3.0
High 12/31/09 5.6
Average 1.3
Low 03/31/09 -6.4
1 MONTH LIBOR (APPROX. BANK FUNDING COSTS) - 5Y HISTORY
Ask price 0.035125
High 9/07/07 5.82375
Average 3.14229
Low 3/01/10 0.22813
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18. KEY UPCOMING DATES
FOMC MEETING DATES FOMC VOTING MEMBERS
01/28/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 1 Ben Bernanke (Chairman)
03/18/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 2 James Bullard
04/29/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 3 William Dudley
06/24/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 4 Elizabeth Duke
08/12/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 5 Thomas Hoenig
09/23/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 6 Donald Kohn
11/04/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 7 Sandra Pianalto
12/16/09 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 8 Eric Rosengren
01/27/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 9 Daniel Tarullo
03/16/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth 10 Kevin Warsh
04/29/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth
06/24/10 0.00- 0.25% Risk to Growth FOMC ALTERNATE MEMBERS
08/12/10 1 Christine Cumming
09/23/10 2 Charles Evans
11/04/10 3 Richard Fisher
12/16/10 4 Narayana Kocherlakota
01/26/11 5 Charles Plosser
KEY UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA
Date Indicator Date Indicator
7/1/2010 Construction Spending MoM 7/16/2010 Consumer Price Index
7/1/2010 ISM Manufacturing & Prices Paid 7/19/2010 NAHB Housing Market Index
7/1/2010 Vehicle Sales 7/20/2010 Building Permits & Housing Starts
7/1/2010 Pending Home Sales 7/22/2010 Leading Indicators
7/2/2010 Employment Report 7/22/2010 Existing Home Sales
7/8/2010 Consumer Credit 7/22/2010 House Price Index
7/9/2010 Wholesale Inventories 7/26/2010 New Home Sales
7/13/2010 Monthly Budget Statement 7/26/2010 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
7/13/2010 Trade Balance 7/27/2010 S&P/ Case Shiller Home Price Ind
7/14/2010 Advance Retail Sales 7/27/2010 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
7/14/2010 Business Inventories 7/27/2010 Consumer Confidence
7/14/2010 Import Price Index 7/28/2010 Durable Goods Orders
7/15/2010 Empire Manufacturing 7/30/2010 GDP Price Index
7/15/2010 Producer Price Index 7/30/2010 Personal Consumption
7/15/2010 Industrial Production 7/30/2010 Chicago Purchasing Manager
7/15/2010 Capacity Utilization 7/30/2010 NAPM-Milwaukee
7/16/2010 U. of Michigan Confidence 7/30/2010 Core PCE QoQ
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19. DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this document is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is
not involved in trading or financial service activities, or responsible for delivering this message to the
intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution or copying of this communication is strictly
prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify the Banc Investment Group
immediately at 877-777-0412. This information does not constitute either an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy any of the securities referred to herein. Offers to sell and solicitations of offers to buy
the securities are made only by, and this information must be read in conjunction with, the final
Prospectus Supplement and the related Prospectus or, if not registered under the securities laws, the
final Offering Memorandum (the “Offering Document”). Information contained herein does not purport to
be complete and is subject to the same qualifications and assumptions, and should be considered by
investors only in the light of the same warnings, lack of assurances and representations and other
precautionary matters, as disclosed in the Offering Document. This information may include certain
assumptions and no representation is made that it is accurate or complete or that any returns indicated
will be achieved. Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on returns. Past performance is
not indicative of future results. Price and availability are subject to change without notice. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of mutual fund
investments may fluctuate so that investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than
their original cost. Mutual funds are not FDIC insured, not bank guaranteed and may lose value.
Customers should rely on their own outside counsel, regulator, or accounting firm to address specific
circumstances. Additional information is available on request. Banc Investment Group is a member of
FINRA and SIPC, and the sister company of Pacific Coast Bankers' Bank. This document cannot be
reproduced or redistributed outside of your institution without the written consent of the Banc Investment
Group. Banc Investment Group is the sister company of PCBB, and all securities are offer through BIG.
Source for data is Bloomberg, dealer provided documents and proprietary calculations or research. This
package is created specifically for independent banks as an added monthly service and provided by
Steve Brown, Chris Nichols and the rest of the team at Banc Investment Group.
340 Pine Street, Suite 401, San Francisco, CA 94104
ph. 877-777-0412
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