This document summarizes research on mobility resources in Switzerland in 2015. The researchers used a logit model to analyze data from a 2015 mobility and transport survey to predict individuals' likelihood of having different mobility resources based on attributes like age, income, location, and occupation. The model showed that availability of resources like cars, public transit passes, and bikes varied significantly based on these attributes. The results were validated against the actual survey data and can be used to generate a synthetic population for transport modeling in Switzerland.

1. Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung ARE
Office fédéral du développement territorial ARE
Ufficio federale dello sviluppo territoriale ARE
Uffizi federal da svilup dal territori ARE
Mobility Resources in
Switzerland in 2015
18th Swiss Transport Research Conference
Monte Verità / Ascona, May 16-18, 2018

2. 2Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Content
• Motivation: Synthetic Population & National Transport Model
• Data & Mobility resources
• Model
• Results
• Validation
• Open questions
• References

3. 3Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Motivation: Synthetic Population Generation
• Goal: Generate a dataset representative of the full population of Switzerland
based on incomplete data sources
Synthetic Population
Mobility resources
Home Ownership
Income
Allocation employees-jobs
Language
Education, Job, Structure of the household
People, Households, Companies
Data Sources
ARE, 2017a

4. 4Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Motivation: Swiss National Transport Model
• An update of the Swiss National Transport Model is going on (ready 12.2019)
• The synthetic population is an input for the generation of trips in the model
ARE, 2017b

5. 5Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Data & Mobility resources
• Data: Mobility and Transport Microcensus 2015; 56’915 individuals (BFS/ARE, 2017)
• Mobility resources: Availability limited by age:
• Car available 18+
• Car available + GA 18+
• Car available + HT 18+
• Car available + HT + regional travelcard 18+
• Car available + regional travelcard 18+
• GA All
• HT 16+
• HT + regional travelcard 16+
• Regional travelcard All
• No mobility resource All
Car «available on demand» (definition MTMC) considered as not available

6. 6Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Model
A logit model with the following attributes:
• Age (piecewise linear specification)
• Gender
• Income of the household
• Region of the place of living
• Category of household (with 1 Person, couples w/wo children, …)
• Labour status (working full/part time, studying, …)
• Highest level of education completed

7. 7Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Results
• Middle class households → more mobility resources than poorer households
• Rich households → even more mobility resources
• Ticino → More car available, less GA, less HT
• People living alone → more mobility resources
• Full-time employees → more likely to have a car available
• Students → more likely to own a GA than full-time employees
• No post mandatory school → less likely to have a car available or a HT
• Tertiary education → increasing car availability in comparison with secondary
education
• University degree → own more GA

8. 8Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Results: Market shares of GA (no car available)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80
Observed Predicted

9. 9Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Validation: estimation 80%, simulation 20%
31%
3%
18%
2% 2%
6%
8%
4%
20%
6%
31%
3%
18%
2% 2%
5%
8%
4%
20%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Simulated market shares
Real marketshares

10. 10Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Validation: 6-16 years old
6%
2% 1%
75%
16%
5%
2% 2%
76%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
GA HT HT+Verbund No Mobility Tool Verbund
Simulated market shares
Real marketshares

11. 11Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Open questions
• Modeling «car available on demand» explicitely?
• Modeling new mobility ressources?
• car-sharing membership
• bike/e-bike ownership
• Modeling driving license rates?
• In particular the stabilisation by young adults
• Test the forecasting power (2010 → 2015)

12. 12Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Resources
• Get the Mobility and Transport Microcensus Data → verkehr@bfs.admin.ch
• Get the slides → SlideShare.net/AntoninDanalet
• Get the python script to generate the data in biogeme format and the model
specification file → GitHub.com/antonindanalet
• Get the Synthetic Population (by the end of 2018) and the national transport
model (2010 version) → verkehrsmodellierung@are.admin.ch

13. 13Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
References
• ARE, 2006: Prognose über Besitz und Nutzenintensität von
Mobilitätswerkzeugen im Personenverkehr
• ARE, 2017a: Weiterentwicklung FLNM: Wohnstandortwahl
• ARE, 2017b: Strategie VM-UVEK
• Beige and Axhausen, 2008: The ownership of mobility tools during the life
course, 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.
• BFS/ARE, 2017: Verkehrsverhalten der Bevölkerung - Ergebnisse des
Mikrozensus Mobilität und Verkehr 2015
• Kowald et al., 2017: Determinants of mobility resource ownership in Switzerland:
changes between 2000 and 2010, Transportation, 44: 1043-1065.
• Loder and Axhausen, 2018: Mobility tools and use Accessibility’s role in
Switzerland, Journal of Transport and Land Use 11: 367-385.

14. 14Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Appendix: Specification
247 parameters
• Age
• Gender
• Age * Gender
• Income of the household (<4kCHF, 4-10kCHF, 10+kCHF, NA)
• Population of the commune (linear + log)
• Region of the place of living (Lake Geneva region; Espace Mitteland; Zurich
region; Ticino/Tessin; Central, Northwestern & Eastern Switzerland)
• Category of household (6: Couples with/without children, households with one
persone, …)
• Labour status (full-time, part-time, studying, not active)
• Highest level of education completed (4 categories)

15. 15Mobility Resources in Switzerland in 2015 | STRC 2018
Antonin Danalet, Nicole Mathys
Appendix: Piecewise linear specification of age
Mobility resources
Age groups
6-16 16-18 18-20 20-25 25-45 45-65 65+
GA X X X X X X
HT X X X X X
Regional travelcard X X X X X X X
HT + Regional travelcard X X X X X X
Car + GA X X X X
Car + HT X X X X
Car + Regional travelcard X X X
Car + HT + Regional
travelcard
X X X
Car X X X