MIPIM Asia 2011

Wrap Up
Remembering: MIPIM Asia 2009

• Growing sense of optimism
   – Asia weathered the storm
   – Capital is flowing in
• Chief concerns:
   – US double dip recession
   – Housing bubble in China
Remembering: MIPIM Asia 2010

•   Strong sense of optimism
•   China is leading the way
•   Great diversity of opportunities
•   Chief concerns
    – Housing bubble in China
    – Limited availability of quality assets
2010 optimism was justified

      How is your business activity this quarter
       compared to same quarter last year?
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
           Better             Same        Worse
Optimism in the data
              Europe                          United States                         AsiaPac
       Company          Still Buying?     Company         Still Buying?      Company            Still Buying?
Unibail- Rodam co                  Blackstone                       Morgan Stanley                  
Morgan Stanley                     Tishm an Speyer                  National Pension Service (NPS)  
Avestus Capital Partners            Lehm an Brothers Holdings Inc     Prudential                      
Goldm an Sachs**                    Morgan Stanley                   Mitsubishi Estate               
IVG Im m obilien                   GE Capital                        CapitaLand Lim ited             
Metrovacesa                         Goldm an Sachs                   Wheelock & Co                   
Aviva PLC                          Beacon Capital Partners          Sino Land Com pany Lim ited -
Aberdeen Property Investors        Broadway Partners                 LaSalle Investm ent Managem ent 
Pirelli & C. Real Estate SpA        Brookfield Asset Managem   ent   Macquarie Glob Prop Advs (MGPA) 
Pearl Group                         Prudential RE Investors          China Vanke Co Ltd              
Electra Ltd                         BlackRock                        DB RREEF                        
ING Group                          Centro Properties Group           Tokyo Tatem ono Co Ltd          
RREEF                              TIAA- CREF                       GIC RE (Govt of Singapore) 
Prudential PLC                     Lightstone Group                 Nan Fung Group                  
Propinvest Group                    CalSTRS                          Kerry Properties Lim ited       
SEB Group                          Chetrit Group                    China Overseas Land & Invt Ltd  
Lehm an Brothers Holdings Inc       CalPERS                          K Wah International             
GE Capital                          Sim on Property Group            Sun Hung Kai Properties Lim ited
Im m ofinanz                       JP Morgan                        Hong Leong Group                
Evans Randall                      Dubai World                       Tokyu Land Corporation          
Looking forward: mixed picture

        What is your perspective on your real
        estate market compared to last year?
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

 0%
       More Optimistic      Same      Less Optimistic
2011: Focus on China, cautious optimism

• China in the driver seat
• Nuances across
   – Investment horizons: short and long term
   – Property types
   – Investment structures
   – Chinese provinces
   – Asia Pacific markets
China: Strong fundamentals

• Scale and performance of the economy
• Favorable long term trends
   – Continued urbanization
   – Unavoidable export sector
   – Strengthening domestic demand
China: Mixed short-term perspective

• Global economic crisis
   – China – US
   – European Union
• Global tensions
   – Currency exchange rates – Terms of trade
   – Current account imbalances
China: Mixed short-term perspective

• Government’s ability to engineer
   – Continued growth
         – Availability of debt to the small-medium businesses
         – Demography
   – A soft landing
• Chinese regional disparities
China: Real estate perspective

• Maturing real estate market
   – Sustainability
   – Exit strategies, insurance companies
   – Greater quantity of investment opportunities
China: Real estate perspective

• In the hands of the policymakers
   – Supply – competition
   – Availability of credit
   – Investment performance
• Critical to foreign investors:
                 The local partner
                  The regulations
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact on
Real Estate Market

1.   Land Supply

    Increase land supply for low-income housing, no less than 70% of the
     total land supply for residential purposes

    Crack down land stocking and land speculation

    Formulate detailed planning and construction conditions for each plot
     of land before tendering of land
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact on
Real Estate Market


   Shorten the payment term for Land Grant Contract; and increase the
    deposit for land bidding

   Reform the Land Bidding System

   Strengthen control for land supply in second and third tier cities by
    central government
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact on
Real Estate Market

2. Financing Policy

     Lower risks associated with real estate development loan
      - No loan for delay in development
    - No loan for land premium
    - Under-construction will be used as collateral

    Increase down payment and interest rate for housing loan

    Monitor risks associated with real estate investment trust plan
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact on
Real Estate Market

3.   Expand Purchase Limit to More Cities
    cities that have experienced a significant increase in the purchase
     p r i c e a n d t ra n s a c t i o n v o l u m e o f n e w l y c o n s t r u c t e d
     residential properties;

    cities in close proximity to major cities that have already
     implemented restrictive regulations.
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact on
Real Estate Market

4.   Encourage Low-income Housing
    increase land supply for low-income housing; 70% of the land
     marked for residential properties will be used for low-income
     housing;

    increase investment by central and local government; all revenue
     from housing public fund and 10% of land premium will be invested
     in low-income housing;

    Increase credit support for low-income housing by banks;

    Reduce and exempt taxes and fees in connection with the
     building, selling and operating of the low-income housing.
Latest Regulatory Changes which Have an Impact on
Real Estate Market

5. Foreign Investment in Real Estate

   MOC delegates its power to approve any foreign investment below
    US$ 300 million falling into encouraged categories to the local
    government, as well as the foreign investment below US$50 million
    falling into the restricted categories.

   MOC Filing applies to all foreign investment in real estate.
Beyond China?

      Where are the best opportunities for real
        estate investment in Asia-Pacific?
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
           China       Australia/NZ       Japan
Beyond China?

•   Australia – New Zealand
•   Japan
•   Taiwan
•   Hong Kong, Singapore
•   India, Russia
•   Indonesia
•   Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines,…
Global Office Property Clock Q3 2011
                                                           Note
     The Jones Lang LaSalle Property       ClocksSM        • This diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimate
                                                             each prime office market is within its individual rental
                                                             cycle at end of September 2011
               Hong Kong                                   • Markets can move around the clock at different speeds
                Singapore                                    and directions
                                                           • The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the
                 Shanghai                                    relative position of markets in their rental cycle


              Moscow, Zurich         Rental                • Their position is not necessarily representative of
                                                             investment or development market prospects.

                 London City        Growth     Rents       • Their position refers to Prime Face Rental Values


            London West End
                                    Slowing    Falling                            Americas
                                                                                  Asia-Pacific
Paris, Beijing, São Paulo
                                                                                  EMEA
                                     Rental    Rents
                San Francisco       Growth     Bottoming
                   Stockholm    Accelerating   Out                Abu Dhabi

                    New York                                      Dubai, Seoul, Detroit
           Berlin, Sydney                                         Mexico City
                                                                  Madrid
Milan, Washington DC, Toronto                                     Amsterdam, Brussels, Los Angeles
  Mumbai, Dallas, Dehli                                           Rome, Tokyo, Chicago
                                                                  Frankfurt, Johannesburg, Atlanta
                                                           Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, October 2011
Asia Pacific real estate markets in 2012

     Sustained
               Strong Asian                 Negative
     tenant     economic                  real interest
     demand fundamentals                      rates
                                                               Federal cheap
                                                                lending rates
                                                            are not showing
                                                            signs of increase
 Capital   Undersupply
 values    of investable
 stable        stock
                                                                 Borrowing
                                           Risk and
                                          uncertainty            costs might
           Volatile                                              rise
                           Appreciating
           Dollar, Pound      Asian
           and Euro         currencies

                                          Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets Research
Real estate markets in the global cycle
Phases of the
 Credit Cycle
            Expansion               Downturn

                                                               Households
                         Europe,
                          Middle Advanced                      Banking Sector
                        East, Africa Europe
                                                               Valuation
          Emerging
            Asia                                              Credit conditions
                                    US
                            Japan
                                                              Asset quality
            Recovery          Latin Repair
                                                              Corporate
                             America
                                                              fundamentals

                                         Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets Research
China: Why go elsewhere?       (2010 GDP at PPP)




Guangdong 1,152    South Korea 1,466
Jiansu     1,037   Indonesia           1,033
Shandong   999     Australia           884
Zhejiang   690     Taiwan              824
Henan      581     Thailand            589
Hebei      512     Malaysia            417
Liaoning   463     Philippines         369
Sichuan    428     Hong Kong           327
Shanghai   428     Singapore           293
Hunan      403     Vietnam             277
Hubei      401     New                 119
                   Zealand                         Source: China NBS Statistical Data and IMF
The rise of the discerning investor

• Within China
   – Performing local governments
         – Strong balance sheets
         – Strong small and medium enterprise
   – Growing service sectors
• Within the Asia-Pacific region
   – Secure/efficient business environment
   – Trade flows with China
   – Local Chinese communities
The discerning governments?

              Emerging markets
Imperative to act
• Improve the legal/business environment
• Improve the physical infrastructure
The discerning governments?

                     China
• First stage of growth: economic adjustment
     • Transfer of resources across sectors
     • Infrastructure investment
                   Easy to manage and plan
• Sustainable growth: growth in productivity
     • About R&D
     • About Innovation
         Tough for government to pick winners
The discerning governments?

                    China
The key question for the future:
Pace of reforms toward freer markets to
unleash innovation in SME
In the end…

                How has MIPIM Asia
               changed your outlook?
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
      More Optimistic    Same          Less Optimistic
And outstanding award-winning projects



                            Shanghai Shimao Wonderland
                            Intercontinental




     Marina Bay Financial
            Center
          Singapore

MIPIM Asia 2011 Wrap-up

  • 1.
  • 2.
    Remembering: MIPIM Asia2009 • Growing sense of optimism – Asia weathered the storm – Capital is flowing in • Chief concerns: – US double dip recession – Housing bubble in China
  • 3.
    Remembering: MIPIM Asia2010 • Strong sense of optimism • China is leading the way • Great diversity of opportunities • Chief concerns – Housing bubble in China – Limited availability of quality assets
  • 4.
    2010 optimism wasjustified How is your business activity this quarter compared to same quarter last year? 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Better Same Worse
  • 5.
    Optimism in thedata Europe United States AsiaPac Company Still Buying? Company Still Buying? Company Still Buying? Unibail- Rodam co  Blackstone  Morgan Stanley  Morgan Stanley  Tishm an Speyer  National Pension Service (NPS)  Avestus Capital Partners Lehm an Brothers Holdings Inc Prudential  Goldm an Sachs** Morgan Stanley  Mitsubishi Estate  IVG Im m obilien  GE Capital CapitaLand Lim ited  Metrovacesa Goldm an Sachs  Wheelock & Co  Aviva PLC  Beacon Capital Partners  Sino Land Com pany Lim ited - Aberdeen Property Investors  Broadway Partners LaSalle Investm ent Managem ent  Pirelli & C. Real Estate SpA Brookfield Asset Managem  ent Macquarie Glob Prop Advs (MGPA)  Pearl Group Prudential RE Investors  China Vanke Co Ltd  Electra Ltd BlackRock  DB RREEF  ING Group  Centro Properties Group Tokyo Tatem ono Co Ltd  RREEF  TIAA- CREF  GIC RE (Govt of Singapore)  Prudential PLC  Lightstone Group  Nan Fung Group  Propinvest Group CalSTRS  Kerry Properties Lim ited  SEB Group  Chetrit Group  China Overseas Land & Invt Ltd  Lehm an Brothers Holdings Inc CalPERS  K Wah International  GE Capital Sim on Property Group  Sun Hung Kai Properties Lim ited Im m ofinanz  JP Morgan  Hong Leong Group  Evans Randall  Dubai World Tokyu Land Corporation 
  • 6.
    Looking forward: mixedpicture What is your perspective on your real estate market compared to last year? 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% More Optimistic Same Less Optimistic
  • 7.
    2011: Focus onChina, cautious optimism • China in the driver seat • Nuances across – Investment horizons: short and long term – Property types – Investment structures – Chinese provinces – Asia Pacific markets
  • 8.
    China: Strong fundamentals •Scale and performance of the economy • Favorable long term trends – Continued urbanization – Unavoidable export sector – Strengthening domestic demand
  • 9.
    China: Mixed short-termperspective • Global economic crisis – China – US – European Union • Global tensions – Currency exchange rates – Terms of trade – Current account imbalances
  • 10.
    China: Mixed short-termperspective • Government’s ability to engineer – Continued growth – Availability of debt to the small-medium businesses – Demography – A soft landing • Chinese regional disparities
  • 11.
    China: Real estateperspective • Maturing real estate market – Sustainability – Exit strategies, insurance companies – Greater quantity of investment opportunities
  • 12.
    China: Real estateperspective • In the hands of the policymakers – Supply – competition – Availability of credit – Investment performance • Critical to foreign investors: The local partner The regulations
  • 13.
    Latest Regulatory Changeswhich Have an Impact on Real Estate Market 1. Land Supply  Increase land supply for low-income housing, no less than 70% of the total land supply for residential purposes  Crack down land stocking and land speculation  Formulate detailed planning and construction conditions for each plot of land before tendering of land
  • 14.
    Latest Regulatory Changeswhich Have an Impact on Real Estate Market  Shorten the payment term for Land Grant Contract; and increase the deposit for land bidding  Reform the Land Bidding System  Strengthen control for land supply in second and third tier cities by central government
  • 15.
    Latest Regulatory Changeswhich Have an Impact on Real Estate Market 2. Financing Policy  Lower risks associated with real estate development loan - No loan for delay in development - No loan for land premium - Under-construction will be used as collateral  Increase down payment and interest rate for housing loan  Monitor risks associated with real estate investment trust plan
  • 16.
    Latest Regulatory Changeswhich Have an Impact on Real Estate Market 3. Expand Purchase Limit to More Cities  cities that have experienced a significant increase in the purchase p r i c e a n d t ra n s a c t i o n v o l u m e o f n e w l y c o n s t r u c t e d residential properties;  cities in close proximity to major cities that have already implemented restrictive regulations.
  • 17.
    Latest Regulatory Changeswhich Have an Impact on Real Estate Market 4. Encourage Low-income Housing  increase land supply for low-income housing; 70% of the land marked for residential properties will be used for low-income housing;  increase investment by central and local government; all revenue from housing public fund and 10% of land premium will be invested in low-income housing;  Increase credit support for low-income housing by banks;  Reduce and exempt taxes and fees in connection with the building, selling and operating of the low-income housing.
  • 18.
    Latest Regulatory Changeswhich Have an Impact on Real Estate Market 5. Foreign Investment in Real Estate  MOC delegates its power to approve any foreign investment below US$ 300 million falling into encouraged categories to the local government, as well as the foreign investment below US$50 million falling into the restricted categories.  MOC Filing applies to all foreign investment in real estate.
  • 19.
    Beyond China? Where are the best opportunities for real estate investment in Asia-Pacific? 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% China Australia/NZ Japan
  • 20.
    Beyond China? • Australia – New Zealand • Japan • Taiwan • Hong Kong, Singapore • India, Russia • Indonesia • Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines,…
  • 21.
    Global Office PropertyClock Q3 2011 Note The Jones Lang LaSalle Property ClocksSM • This diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimate each prime office market is within its individual rental cycle at end of September 2011 Hong Kong • Markets can move around the clock at different speeds Singapore and directions • The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the Shanghai relative position of markets in their rental cycle Moscow, Zurich Rental • Their position is not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. London City Growth Rents • Their position refers to Prime Face Rental Values London West End Slowing Falling Americas Asia-Pacific Paris, Beijing, São Paulo EMEA Rental Rents San Francisco Growth Bottoming Stockholm Accelerating Out Abu Dhabi New York Dubai, Seoul, Detroit Berlin, Sydney Mexico City Madrid Milan, Washington DC, Toronto Amsterdam, Brussels, Los Angeles Mumbai, Dallas, Dehli Rome, Tokyo, Chicago Frankfurt, Johannesburg, Atlanta Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, October 2011
  • 22.
    Asia Pacific realestate markets in 2012 Sustained Strong Asian Negative tenant economic real interest demand fundamentals rates Federal cheap lending rates are not showing signs of increase Capital Undersupply values of investable stable stock Borrowing Risk and uncertainty costs might Volatile rise Appreciating Dollar, Pound Asian and Euro currencies Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets Research
  • 23.
    Real estate marketsin the global cycle Phases of the Credit Cycle Expansion Downturn Households Europe, Middle Advanced Banking Sector East, Africa Europe Valuation Emerging Asia Credit conditions US Japan Asset quality Recovery Latin Repair Corporate America fundamentals Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets Research
  • 24.
    China: Why goelsewhere? (2010 GDP at PPP) Guangdong 1,152 South Korea 1,466 Jiansu 1,037 Indonesia 1,033 Shandong 999 Australia 884 Zhejiang 690 Taiwan 824 Henan 581 Thailand 589 Hebei 512 Malaysia 417 Liaoning 463 Philippines 369 Sichuan 428 Hong Kong 327 Shanghai 428 Singapore 293 Hunan 403 Vietnam 277 Hubei 401 New 119 Zealand Source: China NBS Statistical Data and IMF
  • 25.
    The rise ofthe discerning investor • Within China – Performing local governments – Strong balance sheets – Strong small and medium enterprise – Growing service sectors • Within the Asia-Pacific region – Secure/efficient business environment – Trade flows with China – Local Chinese communities
  • 26.
    The discerning governments? Emerging markets Imperative to act • Improve the legal/business environment • Improve the physical infrastructure
  • 27.
    The discerning governments? China • First stage of growth: economic adjustment • Transfer of resources across sectors • Infrastructure investment Easy to manage and plan • Sustainable growth: growth in productivity • About R&D • About Innovation Tough for government to pick winners
  • 28.
    The discerning governments? China The key question for the future: Pace of reforms toward freer markets to unleash innovation in SME
  • 29.
    In the end… How has MIPIM Asia changed your outlook? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% More Optimistic Same Less Optimistic
  • 30.
    And outstanding award-winningprojects Shanghai Shimao Wonderland Intercontinental Marina Bay Financial Center Singapore