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Middle Income Trap
And Roles of Agriculture in Avoiding MIT
The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015
at Suranaree University of Technology,
Nakorn Ratchasima Province,
September 14, 2015
Somporn Isvilanonda
Knowledge Network Institute of
Thailand
Outline
1. Thailand Economic Progress and Middle-
income Trap
2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and
Present
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural
Growth
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From
the MIT
The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology,
Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
ที่มาของภาพ:Google.com
1. Thailand Economic Progress and
Middle-income Trap
สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ
3
The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology,
Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
1.1 What Explained Past Growth in Thailand
Economy?
Before 1960s, Thailand was considered
to be one of low income countries.
Basic infrastructure and market
improvements in the 1st to 3th development
plans stimulated a significant growth in
agriculture in the late 1960s and 1970s.
High industrial growth in a sub-sequent period as a result of
industrial promotion, FDI, and a better access to infrastructure
facilities has made Thailand moving into the middle income
level since early 1980s.
Although economic crisis in 1997-99 was disrupted the
economic but the situation was recovered in the early 2000s
in couple with financial reform.
Raising average per capita
income reflecting a well-being of
the citizen.
Economic and social
development plans
Year Baht/
head1/
beginning of 1st Plan 1962 2,199
End of the 1st Plan 1966 3,063
End of the 6th Plan 1991 45,084
End of the 8th Plan 2001 59,098
End of the 11th Plan 2010 123,934
In middle of the 11th Plan 2011 131,579
Source: NESDB various issues
Per capita in term of NNI
dramatically changed in the past
five decades which reflects well-
being of the citizen.
Note:1/ in nominal term
1.2 Translation of Economic Progress
Better access to public
goods and services.
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
 Reduction in poverty but remaining
issue of income inequality.
Source: NESDB,2015
65.17
57.97
50.04
42.54
35.25
38.63
42.33
32.44
26.76
21.94
20.04 20.43
17.88
16.37
13.22 12.64
10.94
34.1 31.6 27.8 24.1 20.3 22.7 25.8 19.9 16.5 13.8 12.7 13.1 11.6 10.8 8.8 8.4 7.3
879
960
1,086
1,157
1,306
1,533
1,555
1,606
1,719
1,934
2,006
2,172 2,174
2,285
2,415
2,492
2,572
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ratio of poors (%) No. of poors (Million person) Poverty line (Baht/person/month)
Headcount ratio indicating declining poverty from
1986-2010 in both urban and rural.
Source: Jitsuchon (2012).
Increasing employment opportunities in cities and reallocation of labor
force from rural to urban helped to reducing no. and ration of the poors.
1.2 (Cont.)
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
In the past few decades, Thailand like other low income
countries, had gaining competitive in international markets by
producing labor–intensive, low cost products using technologies
imported from aboard.
Productivity gains were largely achieved through labor
reallocation from the low-productivity agr. sector to high
productivity manufacturing sector. When they reach middle-
income levels, the pool of underemployed rural workers drains
and wages begin to rise thereby eroding the competitiveness.
1.3 Thailand Lost Its Competitiveness
It is no longer possible to boost productivity by shifting
additional workers from agriculture to industry and the gains
from importing foreign technology diminish significantly.
With escalating wages, it lose cost competitiveness and
cannot compete in export markets.
1.4 Moving Status from Low to Middle Income
Level
Movingfromlow-incomestatustomiddle-income
statusandmiddleincomegrowthtrap
Low-income status and dependent on traditional agricultural
economy 8
As economies move from low-to middle-income status, they can
compete internationally by moving from agricultural to labor
intensive, low-cost manufactured products.
Using imported technologies, late-developing economies reap
productivity gains as workers shift from the agricultural sector
to the manufacturing sector.
Productivity growth from sectoral reallocation and technology
catch-up are eventually exhausted, international
competitiveness is eroded, output and growth slow and
economies become trapped, unable to transcend to high-income
status.
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
1.5 What Situation Demonstrated a Falling into
Middle Income Trap (MIT)?
A middle-income trap is a situation in which a country that
is successful in lifting its economy from the a low-income
country to a middle-income one but remains at that level
without much prospect of becoming an advanced or rich
country (World Bank 2011).
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
World Bank estimates
that of 101 middle –
income countries in
1960, only 13 became
high income by 2008.
In Asia, only Japan,
Hong-kong, Singapore,
Korea, and Taiwan
have passed the test.
1.6 Whether Thailand Falling into MIT ?
GDP growth rates in selected periods
Pre-boom
1968-861/
Boom
1987-961/
Econ. Crisis
1997-991/
Recovery
2000-061/
Instability
2007-11/2
Total GDP 6.7 9.5 -2.5 5.0 2.62
Agriculture 4.5 2.6 0.1 2.7 2.06
Industry 8.5 12.8 -1.7 6.2 2.46
Services 6.8 9.0 -3.6 4.3 3.24
Source: 1/Warr, 2011; 2/NESDB, 2015
 Thailand enjoyed its economic
growth at the ave. real rate of 7%
per annum during 1963-1993.
But, a subsequent period was
found a sharp decline to 4% or
less.
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
Source: Jitsuchon (2012.
Medium term growth rate
1952-2011 by 11-year
moving average.
1.7 Comparing GDP Growth Trends of Some
Selected Countries
Source: World Bank 2012 as refered by Jitsuchon, 2012.
 According to GDP/capita Growth of Some Selected Countries, Thailand is
one in the MIT. Its GDP growth performance is slowly growth.
Thailand GDP/
capita =4,210 US$
Upper middle
income GDP/
capita from US$
3,976 to12,275.
 Between
US$1,006-3,975
is ranked for
middle income.
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
Source: Economist.com
1.8 Comparing Per Capita Incomes of Some
Selected Countries
1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past
and Present
13
The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology,
Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
2.1 Past Dominant Role of Thailand Agricultural
Economy
Nearly a century ago, agriculture was a predominant sector
of the national economy. Economic activities were primarily
involved in crop production both for food security and income
source.
Despite Thai farming mainly produced for subsistence, the
surplus was large enough for both domestic and export
markets. An industry was small sector and little contributed to
the economy.
The export income was mainly derived from agriculture. The
top four major export items were rice, rubber, teak, and tin.
2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present
Large number of production resources, particularly land
and labor, were accumulated in agriculture.
2.2 Development Plans Accelerating Resource Adjustment
improving Agriculture and Raising Farm HH Income
Rice
72.55%
Tree
Crops
11.76%
Upland
Crop
15.69%
Forest area 186 million rai or
58.2% of the country land area;
Crop area 51 million rai;
Ratio of agr. GDP 34.91%;
Ratio of agr. Labor to the
country’s labor force 67%;
Farm HH income in 1953 was
about 3,905 Baht/HH.
Source: Chhochart, 1960
Ratio of crop land in the 1th plan
(1963-1966)
Rice
49.65
%Upland
Cropร่
21.35
%
Tree
Crops
21.32
%
Others
7.68%
Ratio of crop land in the 10th plan
(2007-2011)
Forest area 107.2 million rai or33 %
of the country area.
Crop area 149 million rai.
Ratio of Agr GDP 8.8%
Ratio of agr. Labor to the country’s
labor force 41.8%;
 Farm HH income in 20123
was about 110,700 Baht/HH.
Source: OAE 2012
2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present
16
Items Rice Maize Rubber
Sugarcane
and sugar Cassava
Oil palm
and palm
oil
Planted area(mil. rai) 79 7.4 19.28 8.1 8.8 4.3
Ratio of planted area(%) 53.02 5.0 12.94 5.09 5.90 2.88
Farm HH(million) 3.8 0.41 1.26 0.21 0.47 0.13
Production(mil.) 22.23 4.79 3.6 10.75 24.15 2.94
Ratio of domestic
utilization(%) 54.2% 91.23 14% 24.58 26.17 94.07
Ratio in export market
(%) 27.5% 0.34 34 11.18 89.37 1
Ranking in export market (1) - 1 (2) (1) (-)
2.3 Thailand Plays Essential Role in Export of The
Food Surplus
Source: Calculated from OAE data
Conversion ratio: 1 ton of sugarcane = 0.108 ton of raw sugar; 1 ton of oil palm= 0.26 ton of palm oil; 1 ton
of paddy = 0.650 ton of white rice.
 Thailand is a food surplus country with planted land area approximately
149 million rai (24 mil. ha).
3. Roles of Agriculture in Overcoming the MIT
 Major important crops are rice, rubber, sugarcane, cassava, maize, oil
palm.
Thailand is ranked one of the tenth in agricultural and food
export to the world market.
Source: Dept. of Custom
 The top ten agro-industry
productsi export n 2013 and 14
Source: Ministry of Commerce
2.4 Main Export Commodities of Agriculture and
Agro Industry
 The top ten agricultural product
sexport in 2013 and 14
6. สินค้าเกษตรของไทยในตลาดการค้าระหว่างประเทศ
17
Items
2013
(mil.baht)
2014
(mil.baht)
1. Rubber 249,296.4 193,754.8
2. Rice 133,851.2 174,854.7
3.Cassava product 98,344.6 114,644.9
4. Processed chicken 60,470.1 61,315.2
5. Frozen shrimp 28,531.7 27,700.4
6.Fresh, frozen, and dried
fruits
32,012.7 40,730.8
7. Fresh and frozen squid 10,291.6 11,383.6
8.Fresh and frozen fillet 8,711.7 10.311.8
9. Fresh and frozen chicken 6,744.4 12,650.0
10.Maiz 6,000.1 8,933.1
รายการสินค้า
2556
(mil. baht)
2557
(mil.baht)
1. Can seafood 146,052.9 138,547.1
2. Sugar 85,494.5 87,942.4
3.Can and processed fruit 49,247.1 55,672.0
4. Beverage 37,868.2 43,719.4
5. Annimal feed 35,179.9 39,962.4
6. Wheat products and
instant food
35,795.5 42,669.6
7.Vegetable and animal oils 24,748.4 17,667.2
8.Food favor and additive 16,796.3 19,076.5
9. Can and processed veg. 10,192.7 11,619.1
10. Beef and processed beef 9,637.6 10,485.9
2.5 Recent Development in Thailand Economic
Structure
Share of labor force by sectors in 2013: agriculture 38%;
manufacturing 14%; and services 48%.
A result of economic progress under previous development
plans has consequently transformed Thailand economy toward
the more importance of industrial and service sectors.
However with the movement toward global and regional
free trades, there are strong competition in production and
trade in all sectors.
2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present
In recent years, The top five major export items are
automobile and parts, data processing machines and parts,
refined fuel, precious stones and jewelry, polymer products.
19
Value of GDP in 2012 = 12.91 trillion Baht
Income Per capita 131,579 Baht.
Absolute value of GDP in agriculture
(Baht).
 Despite the GDP in Agriculture has been continuously increased but its share in
the total GDP consistently declined.
10.0
37.1
52.9
8.5
36.8
54.7
10.5
40.0
49.4
11.3
37.0
51.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Agriculture Industrial Service
Unit: Percent
1990
2000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006r
2008r
2010r
2012r
AgricultureMillion baht
Source: Calculated from NESDB data , 2013 Source: Calculated from NESDB data , 2013
Also agricultural growth remains sluggish in the past few decades.
Average GDP growth in selected period
1968-861/ 1987-961/ 1997-991/ 2000-061/ 2007-11/2
Total GDP 6.7 9.5 -2.5 5.0 2.62
Agriculture 4.5 2.6 0.1 2.7 2.06
2.5 (Cont.)
2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present
A faded agricultural sector and declining growth were
reflected in agricultural export income and income inequality.
Source:: Calculated from data set provided by Ministry of Commerce
unit: billion baht
2.5 (Cont.)
ปี 1992 2002 2014
1. Industry 572.25 2,399.58 5,647
2.Agriculture 169.77 305.42 719
% share of Agriculture 20.60 10.14 9.83
3. Agro-industry 82.12 218.94 547
4. (2+3) 251.90 523.36 1,266
% share of agr. and agro
industry to total export
30.56 17.90 17.31
5. Total Export earnings 824.15 2,923.94 7,314
20
2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present
But agriculture still be a main occupation of rural HH.
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural
Growth
21
สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ
สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ
The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology,
Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
3.1 A Decline in Agricultural Productivity
Agricultural
Sector
Ave.
the 6th
Plan
(1987-91)
Ave.
the 7th
Plan
(1992-96)
Ave.
The 8th
Plan
(1997-01)
Ave.
the 9th
Plan
(2002-06)
Ave.
The 10th
Plan
(2007-11)
GDP Growth 4.55 2.98 2.04 2.90 1.64
Source of growth
Labor 0.11 -0.27 -0.07 0.08 0.07
Land 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.14 0.05
Capital 3.01 6.57 3.34 3.19 3.55
TFP 1.36 -3.37 -1.29 -0.51 -2.18
Source: NESDB 22
Agricultural growth in the past was stemmed from increasing
number use of production resources but lacked concern on quality
and productivity enhancement.
 Increasing number of Land, labor, and capital but not technology
which is represented by TFP.
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
23
 Government investment in R&D
in Thailand is very low about
0.21% of GDP; Lower than Korea,
Singapore, and Taiwan.
Low research investment
consequently resulted slow
progress in new technology and
innovation development, losing
competitive capacity, increasing
cost, and reducing market share.
Gove. Research Budget in
Agriculture about 1,318 million baht
(average during 2007-2010).
Source: Statistical year book for Asia and pacific 2009, United Nation
3.2 Threat from Previous Low Investment in
Technology and Innovation Development
Small-scale farmer shares a large
ratio of Thailand agriculture. Lack of
fund and skills prevented them to
access to technology and innovation.
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
Source: Bank of Thailand as Refered by Pasuk Phongpaichit & Pornthep Benyaapikul (2012)
3.3 A Sluggish Labor Productivity Improvement
Thus its impact on smaller return to labor
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
2533
2534
2535
2536
2537
2538
2539
2540
2541
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552
Head
No. of farm laborers who work more than 20 hr/week by age
อายุ 15-24 ปี
รวม
อายุ 25-34 ปี
รวม
อายุ 35-44 ปี
รวม
อายุ 45-54 ปี
รวม
25
3.4 Encounter Farm Labor Shortage and Aging
Farmers
Source: Puapongsakorn
Continuously declining agricultural labor force and
demonstrating an increasing trend of aging farmers.
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
19.8 18.1 16.8 15.8 14.8 13.8 12.8
67.0 66.0 64.1 61.4 58.6 56.6 55.1
13.2 16.2 19.8 23.7 27.6 30.4 32.242,740 42,961 42,293
40,739
38,795
36,993
35,175
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
No. workforce age:
thousand person
Employee
coverage(%)
Age: 60 years up Age: 15-59 years
Age: 0-14 years No. workforce age
Thailand has already moved into aging society with
increasing trend of dependent citizen
3.4 (Cont.)
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
Source: google.co.th
3.5 Moving Toward Free Trade Policy Threatening
Small-scale Farmers
Source: Department of Trade Negotiations
Economic and market integrations are important but they
create differential impacts from the agreements and leads to
having new development measures of NTB or TBT.
 Developed countries have stronger
implementation of standards and
quality which developing countries are
difficult to achieve.
Increasing new development
measure for technical barrier to
trade(TBT);
 Agriculture in Thailand largely
consists of small-scale farmers.
They are facing difficulty in adjusting
themselves to the new trade
regulation.
Access to new technology for better
production and high quality standards
is rather difficult.
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
3.6 Global Climate Change and Its Linkage to New
Trade Regulation and Standards
Distress in global climate change leads to
reconsider in the use of global natural
resources and environment.
Extreme weather events, particularly
drought and flood, increasing risk to
agricultural production, threatening
natural and agricultural ecosystem,
increasing variation in food supply and
farm income.
Establishing a clear link between
sustainable development and disciplined
trade liberalization.
3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding
From the MIT
29
สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ
สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ
The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology,
Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
4.1 Stages of Caching-up Industrialization of
Some Selected Countries
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
Source: Ohno, 2010
Shifting away from growth that is driven primarily by
factor accumulation. They should rather embrace growth
based on productivity increases driven by improvements in
the quality of human capital, product and innovation.
4.2 Essential Need to Reform the Agriculture for
Escaping MIT
Proactive policies on technology and innovation development.
Enhancing productivity through creativity of new products with
high quality and value for enable them to compete in the
international markets.
 Promoting physical capital accumulation and improvement
through advanced infrastructure development, reducing
regulation rigidity, including market reform.
Source: Refered to Agenor, P.R.; Canuto,O. and Jelenic, M. (2012) Economic Premise;
Creating new strategies for developing new products,
processes, and markets are necessary.
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
4.3 Theoretical Concept for Productivity and
Capacity Enhancement
Implying either productivity or
quality enhancement and also
inducing cost advantage and
competitiveness.
Note: TVP= Total Value Product
Both product Innovation and process
innovation are necessarily to create and
develop.
Need both product
innovation and
process innovation
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
4.4 Triple Helix Model: A Synergy for Technology
Transfer and Moving Up Agricultural Economy
Source:Luis Farinha and João J. Ferreira (2013)
The the triple helix is used to explain the relations between
the academy, industry and government since innovation has
become the decisive challenge for global competitiveness.
The competitiveness of firms help to
determine the flows of income and
employment, creating regional and
sectoral development and wealth
creation.
Social responsibility Environment
Sustainability
Economic
sustainability
The academy takes leading role as
enhancing skills of human capital by
knowledge and technology transfer.
The government is a key interactions
between the economic and social
networks to ensure cooperation,
partnership and institutional support.
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
34
Knowledge Technology/
innovation
Competitive
advantage Competitiveness
4.5 Transforming Agriculture Toward Knowledge
Base Driven Economy
 A scarcity of production resource and environment, advanced
in technology, in coupled with the free trade policy, have
changed classical concept from let “Factor Driven Economy” to
be a new concept of “Innovation Driven Economy” or
“Knowledge-based Economy”.
4.5 (Cont.)
 The concept is how to make use of the same certain amount
of resource for a better quality and production value?
 Integration of innovation, technology, social capital, local
wisdom, and environmental value into the creation of product
value.
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
Source: Termpittayaphaisith, NESDB 2013
4.5 (Cont.)
Source: modified from Termpittayaphaisith, NESDB 2013
 Newness  Knowledge or Creativity  Economic Benefits
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
University engagement
New management skill
 Specific variety
4.6 Empowering Rural Poors Through Enhancing
Management Skills and Developing New Supply Chain
 innovative technique
 Social enterprise
Source: Modified from Vanvicit 2014
Business engagement
Community engagement
Empowering farmers
and community in
production and
business
management skills
Creating new
and fair share
supply chain
linking up
stream and
down stream
business
activities
 Fair trade Innovative products
Public sector and government engagement
Infrastructure improvements; ensuring property rights; regulatory governance;
better extension services.
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
+
New
Technology
Knowledge
Management
New
Demand
Existing
Resource
Endowment
People
Natural resources
Cultural values
Indigenous
Knowledge
“Thainess”
Repackaging/Branding
Real Products & Services
Value Creation
Balancing Economic &
Social investment
4.7 Matching New Innovative Products with
New Demand
Using new innovation and knowledge
management in creating new products
and matching them with new market
demand.
Source: Modified from NESDB
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
High Antioxidants
Selenium/ Folate/
Phytonutrients
(สารฟฤกษเคมี)
Low – medium
glycemic index
Iron and high Fe
bioavailability
Let Your Rice
be Your
Medicine
ที่มา: รัชนี คงคาฉุยฉาย 2556
Good Quality High Nutrient For Longevity Life
4.8 Rice : Can It Be Innovated Beyond a Basic
Staple Food?
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
4.8 Rice (cont.)
White rice
20 B/kg.
Aromatic rice
35 B/kg.
Nutritive rice
>80 B/kg.
Development toward healthy food &cosmetic
ที่มา: ดัดแปลงจาก Apichart Vannvichit
Organic Paddy
15 B/kg
Organic white
rice
30 B/kg
Rice production
Cosmetic/spa
5000 B/kg
Riceberry oil
Medicinal material
6,500 B/kg
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
ระบบการผลิต
(Production System)
ระบบการตลาด
(
4.9 Moving up Traditional Agricultural Supply
Chain to Become Value Chain
ระบบการแปรรูป
(Processing System) Marketing System)
ระบบการบร ิโภค
(Consumption System)
Using innovation and creativity for upgrading product value and value
added.
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
Source: Stan Shih’s refered by Tangkitvanich et al., 2013
4.10 R&D: An Important Gearwheel for Moving
Up the Value Chain
Moving up the value chain implies a continuous
process of change, innovation and productivity
growth.
Functional
Upgrading
Process
Upgrading
Product
Upgrading
R&D Planning and
Designing
Production Distribution Branding
Activities under
value chain
Value added
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
Government
engagement
University
engagement
Business
engagement
Community
engagement
To be specialized in
bio-base commodity
Agriculture base
การเกษตรอาเซียน
4.11 Renovating Agricultural-Base Economy to be
Specialized in Bio-Base Economy
43
Time dimension
To be specialize in commodity
Industrial biotechnology;
Biorefineries;
Biobase chemistry;
Biobase plastic and
composites.
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
Citric acid industry
Down stream
production
Feed mill industry
Ethanol industry
Mono sodium
glutamate industry
Paper industry
Glue industry
Textile industry
Food industry
Domestic
Domestic
Domestic
4.11 (Cont.)
Pellet
mills
Cassava chip
exporters
Middle stream
production
Up stream
production
Middlemen/
Assemblers Local central
markets
Cassava
flour mills
Flour
exporters
Export
Export
Farmers produced
cassava roots
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
4.11(Cont.)
Cassava
roots
Cassava
pellets
Cassava
Chips
Cassava
flour
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
Paper
Animal Feeds
Ethanol
Organic acid
Modified
starch
Flour as a raw
materials
TextilePlywood
Physical
process
Polyols;Sobitol;mannitol
Dextrinized starch
Bio-
technology
process
Chemical
process
Pregelatinized starch
Modified starch with heat
Tapioca starch
Acid thinned starch
Starch ether
Hydroxy-propyl starch
Acetylated starch
Oxidized starch
Glucose; fructose;sweetener
Amino acid; glutamat;lysine
Organic acid;lactic
acid;citric acid
Alcohol;Ethanol
46
4.12 Transforming Agriculture As a Regional and
Global Food Hub
Responding to the need and interest of consumers in domestic
and global markets
Developing food technology and quality in comply with
international food and safety standards
Adopting WTO agreements on SPS measures for food quality
and safety standards and other related agreements on trade.
Investing in innovation for agro-industry food processing.
Certifications,
Inspection,
Testing,
Health-related labeling
Environmental protection,.
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
GasifierBio-gas Clean gas
ElectricityHusk from rice mills
Residues from oil palm
crushing mills
วัศดุจากกระบวรการผลิตการเกษตร
เหลือใช้
Generator
4.13 Moving Up Agriculture as a Source of
Renewable Energy and Green Technology
Bio-energy from biomass
and agricultural residues
Cellulosic Ethanol
Agricultural fields and
Windmills
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
Source: google.co.th
4.12 Policy Challenges
Support a shift of economic activity towards more high value-
added areas, raising productivity and quality. Addressing this
through education and training policy requires a growing focus
on life-long learning.
Upgrading the human resource base:
Enhancing R&I for raising competitiveness:
increase the level of knowledge and technology embodied in production
and exports, which would make competition through rising investment in
R&D.
Creating new areas of economic activity:
Stimulating green and creative innovation and technology for new
firms and entrepreneurships;
4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
Enhancing the country and location attractiveness .
Agricultural-Base Economy to be Specialized in Bio-Base Economy.
 No political conflict would enhance FDI.
Q&A

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Middle Income Trap: Agriculture's Role in Avoiding MIT for Thailand

  • 1. Middle Income Trap And Roles of Agriculture in Avoiding MIT The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology, Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015 Somporn Isvilanonda Knowledge Network Institute of Thailand
  • 2. Outline 1. Thailand Economic Progress and Middle- income Trap 2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology, Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015 ที่มาของภาพ:Google.com
  • 3. 1. Thailand Economic Progress and Middle-income Trap สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ 3 The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology, Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
  • 4. 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap 1.1 What Explained Past Growth in Thailand Economy? Before 1960s, Thailand was considered to be one of low income countries. Basic infrastructure and market improvements in the 1st to 3th development plans stimulated a significant growth in agriculture in the late 1960s and 1970s. High industrial growth in a sub-sequent period as a result of industrial promotion, FDI, and a better access to infrastructure facilities has made Thailand moving into the middle income level since early 1980s. Although economic crisis in 1997-99 was disrupted the economic but the situation was recovered in the early 2000s in couple with financial reform.
  • 5. Raising average per capita income reflecting a well-being of the citizen. Economic and social development plans Year Baht/ head1/ beginning of 1st Plan 1962 2,199 End of the 1st Plan 1966 3,063 End of the 6th Plan 1991 45,084 End of the 8th Plan 2001 59,098 End of the 11th Plan 2010 123,934 In middle of the 11th Plan 2011 131,579 Source: NESDB various issues Per capita in term of NNI dramatically changed in the past five decades which reflects well- being of the citizen. Note:1/ in nominal term 1.2 Translation of Economic Progress Better access to public goods and services. 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
  • 6.  Reduction in poverty but remaining issue of income inequality. Source: NESDB,2015 65.17 57.97 50.04 42.54 35.25 38.63 42.33 32.44 26.76 21.94 20.04 20.43 17.88 16.37 13.22 12.64 10.94 34.1 31.6 27.8 24.1 20.3 22.7 25.8 19.9 16.5 13.8 12.7 13.1 11.6 10.8 8.8 8.4 7.3 879 960 1,086 1,157 1,306 1,533 1,555 1,606 1,719 1,934 2,006 2,172 2,174 2,285 2,415 2,492 2,572 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ratio of poors (%) No. of poors (Million person) Poverty line (Baht/person/month) Headcount ratio indicating declining poverty from 1986-2010 in both urban and rural. Source: Jitsuchon (2012). Increasing employment opportunities in cities and reallocation of labor force from rural to urban helped to reducing no. and ration of the poors. 1.2 (Cont.) 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
  • 7. 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap In the past few decades, Thailand like other low income countries, had gaining competitive in international markets by producing labor–intensive, low cost products using technologies imported from aboard. Productivity gains were largely achieved through labor reallocation from the low-productivity agr. sector to high productivity manufacturing sector. When they reach middle- income levels, the pool of underemployed rural workers drains and wages begin to rise thereby eroding the competitiveness. 1.3 Thailand Lost Its Competitiveness It is no longer possible to boost productivity by shifting additional workers from agriculture to industry and the gains from importing foreign technology diminish significantly. With escalating wages, it lose cost competitiveness and cannot compete in export markets.
  • 8. 1.4 Moving Status from Low to Middle Income Level Movingfromlow-incomestatustomiddle-income statusandmiddleincomegrowthtrap Low-income status and dependent on traditional agricultural economy 8 As economies move from low-to middle-income status, they can compete internationally by moving from agricultural to labor intensive, low-cost manufactured products. Using imported technologies, late-developing economies reap productivity gains as workers shift from the agricultural sector to the manufacturing sector. Productivity growth from sectoral reallocation and technology catch-up are eventually exhausted, international competitiveness is eroded, output and growth slow and economies become trapped, unable to transcend to high-income status. 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
  • 9. 1.5 What Situation Demonstrated a Falling into Middle Income Trap (MIT)? A middle-income trap is a situation in which a country that is successful in lifting its economy from the a low-income country to a middle-income one but remains at that level without much prospect of becoming an advanced or rich country (World Bank 2011). 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap World Bank estimates that of 101 middle – income countries in 1960, only 13 became high income by 2008. In Asia, only Japan, Hong-kong, Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan have passed the test.
  • 10. 1.6 Whether Thailand Falling into MIT ? GDP growth rates in selected periods Pre-boom 1968-861/ Boom 1987-961/ Econ. Crisis 1997-991/ Recovery 2000-061/ Instability 2007-11/2 Total GDP 6.7 9.5 -2.5 5.0 2.62 Agriculture 4.5 2.6 0.1 2.7 2.06 Industry 8.5 12.8 -1.7 6.2 2.46 Services 6.8 9.0 -3.6 4.3 3.24 Source: 1/Warr, 2011; 2/NESDB, 2015  Thailand enjoyed its economic growth at the ave. real rate of 7% per annum during 1963-1993. But, a subsequent period was found a sharp decline to 4% or less. 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap Source: Jitsuchon (2012. Medium term growth rate 1952-2011 by 11-year moving average.
  • 11. 1.7 Comparing GDP Growth Trends of Some Selected Countries Source: World Bank 2012 as refered by Jitsuchon, 2012.  According to GDP/capita Growth of Some Selected Countries, Thailand is one in the MIT. Its GDP growth performance is slowly growth. Thailand GDP/ capita =4,210 US$ Upper middle income GDP/ capita from US$ 3,976 to12,275.  Between US$1,006-3,975 is ranked for middle income. 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
  • 12. Source: Economist.com 1.8 Comparing Per Capita Incomes of Some Selected Countries 1.Thailand Economic Progress and Middle Income Trap
  • 13. 2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present 13 The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology, Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
  • 14. 2.1 Past Dominant Role of Thailand Agricultural Economy Nearly a century ago, agriculture was a predominant sector of the national economy. Economic activities were primarily involved in crop production both for food security and income source. Despite Thai farming mainly produced for subsistence, the surplus was large enough for both domestic and export markets. An industry was small sector and little contributed to the economy. The export income was mainly derived from agriculture. The top four major export items were rice, rubber, teak, and tin. 2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present Large number of production resources, particularly land and labor, were accumulated in agriculture.
  • 15. 2.2 Development Plans Accelerating Resource Adjustment improving Agriculture and Raising Farm HH Income Rice 72.55% Tree Crops 11.76% Upland Crop 15.69% Forest area 186 million rai or 58.2% of the country land area; Crop area 51 million rai; Ratio of agr. GDP 34.91%; Ratio of agr. Labor to the country’s labor force 67%; Farm HH income in 1953 was about 3,905 Baht/HH. Source: Chhochart, 1960 Ratio of crop land in the 1th plan (1963-1966) Rice 49.65 %Upland Cropร่ 21.35 % Tree Crops 21.32 % Others 7.68% Ratio of crop land in the 10th plan (2007-2011) Forest area 107.2 million rai or33 % of the country area. Crop area 149 million rai. Ratio of Agr GDP 8.8% Ratio of agr. Labor to the country’s labor force 41.8%;  Farm HH income in 20123 was about 110,700 Baht/HH. Source: OAE 2012 2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present
  • 16. 16 Items Rice Maize Rubber Sugarcane and sugar Cassava Oil palm and palm oil Planted area(mil. rai) 79 7.4 19.28 8.1 8.8 4.3 Ratio of planted area(%) 53.02 5.0 12.94 5.09 5.90 2.88 Farm HH(million) 3.8 0.41 1.26 0.21 0.47 0.13 Production(mil.) 22.23 4.79 3.6 10.75 24.15 2.94 Ratio of domestic utilization(%) 54.2% 91.23 14% 24.58 26.17 94.07 Ratio in export market (%) 27.5% 0.34 34 11.18 89.37 1 Ranking in export market (1) - 1 (2) (1) (-) 2.3 Thailand Plays Essential Role in Export of The Food Surplus Source: Calculated from OAE data Conversion ratio: 1 ton of sugarcane = 0.108 ton of raw sugar; 1 ton of oil palm= 0.26 ton of palm oil; 1 ton of paddy = 0.650 ton of white rice.  Thailand is a food surplus country with planted land area approximately 149 million rai (24 mil. ha). 3. Roles of Agriculture in Overcoming the MIT  Major important crops are rice, rubber, sugarcane, cassava, maize, oil palm.
  • 17. Thailand is ranked one of the tenth in agricultural and food export to the world market. Source: Dept. of Custom  The top ten agro-industry productsi export n 2013 and 14 Source: Ministry of Commerce 2.4 Main Export Commodities of Agriculture and Agro Industry  The top ten agricultural product sexport in 2013 and 14 6. สินค้าเกษตรของไทยในตลาดการค้าระหว่างประเทศ 17 Items 2013 (mil.baht) 2014 (mil.baht) 1. Rubber 249,296.4 193,754.8 2. Rice 133,851.2 174,854.7 3.Cassava product 98,344.6 114,644.9 4. Processed chicken 60,470.1 61,315.2 5. Frozen shrimp 28,531.7 27,700.4 6.Fresh, frozen, and dried fruits 32,012.7 40,730.8 7. Fresh and frozen squid 10,291.6 11,383.6 8.Fresh and frozen fillet 8,711.7 10.311.8 9. Fresh and frozen chicken 6,744.4 12,650.0 10.Maiz 6,000.1 8,933.1 รายการสินค้า 2556 (mil. baht) 2557 (mil.baht) 1. Can seafood 146,052.9 138,547.1 2. Sugar 85,494.5 87,942.4 3.Can and processed fruit 49,247.1 55,672.0 4. Beverage 37,868.2 43,719.4 5. Annimal feed 35,179.9 39,962.4 6. Wheat products and instant food 35,795.5 42,669.6 7.Vegetable and animal oils 24,748.4 17,667.2 8.Food favor and additive 16,796.3 19,076.5 9. Can and processed veg. 10,192.7 11,619.1 10. Beef and processed beef 9,637.6 10,485.9
  • 18. 2.5 Recent Development in Thailand Economic Structure Share of labor force by sectors in 2013: agriculture 38%; manufacturing 14%; and services 48%. A result of economic progress under previous development plans has consequently transformed Thailand economy toward the more importance of industrial and service sectors. However with the movement toward global and regional free trades, there are strong competition in production and trade in all sectors. 2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present In recent years, The top five major export items are automobile and parts, data processing machines and parts, refined fuel, precious stones and jewelry, polymer products.
  • 19. 19 Value of GDP in 2012 = 12.91 trillion Baht Income Per capita 131,579 Baht. Absolute value of GDP in agriculture (Baht).  Despite the GDP in Agriculture has been continuously increased but its share in the total GDP consistently declined. 10.0 37.1 52.9 8.5 36.8 54.7 10.5 40.0 49.4 11.3 37.0 51.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Agriculture Industrial Service Unit: Percent 1990 2000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006r 2008r 2010r 2012r AgricultureMillion baht Source: Calculated from NESDB data , 2013 Source: Calculated from NESDB data , 2013 Also agricultural growth remains sluggish in the past few decades. Average GDP growth in selected period 1968-861/ 1987-961/ 1997-991/ 2000-061/ 2007-11/2 Total GDP 6.7 9.5 -2.5 5.0 2.62 Agriculture 4.5 2.6 0.1 2.7 2.06 2.5 (Cont.) 2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present
  • 20. A faded agricultural sector and declining growth were reflected in agricultural export income and income inequality. Source:: Calculated from data set provided by Ministry of Commerce unit: billion baht 2.5 (Cont.) ปี 1992 2002 2014 1. Industry 572.25 2,399.58 5,647 2.Agriculture 169.77 305.42 719 % share of Agriculture 20.60 10.14 9.83 3. Agro-industry 82.12 218.94 547 4. (2+3) 251.90 523.36 1,266 % share of agr. and agro industry to total export 30.56 17.90 17.31 5. Total Export earnings 824.15 2,923.94 7,314 20 2. Situation of Thailand Agriculture: Past and Present But agriculture still be a main occupation of rural HH.
  • 21. 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth 21 สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology, Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
  • 22. 3.1 A Decline in Agricultural Productivity Agricultural Sector Ave. the 6th Plan (1987-91) Ave. the 7th Plan (1992-96) Ave. The 8th Plan (1997-01) Ave. the 9th Plan (2002-06) Ave. The 10th Plan (2007-11) GDP Growth 4.55 2.98 2.04 2.90 1.64 Source of growth Labor 0.11 -0.27 -0.07 0.08 0.07 Land 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.14 0.05 Capital 3.01 6.57 3.34 3.19 3.55 TFP 1.36 -3.37 -1.29 -0.51 -2.18 Source: NESDB 22 Agricultural growth in the past was stemmed from increasing number use of production resources but lacked concern on quality and productivity enhancement.  Increasing number of Land, labor, and capital but not technology which is represented by TFP. 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
  • 23. 23  Government investment in R&D in Thailand is very low about 0.21% of GDP; Lower than Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Low research investment consequently resulted slow progress in new technology and innovation development, losing competitive capacity, increasing cost, and reducing market share. Gove. Research Budget in Agriculture about 1,318 million baht (average during 2007-2010). Source: Statistical year book for Asia and pacific 2009, United Nation 3.2 Threat from Previous Low Investment in Technology and Innovation Development Small-scale farmer shares a large ratio of Thailand agriculture. Lack of fund and skills prevented them to access to technology and innovation. 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
  • 24. Source: Bank of Thailand as Refered by Pasuk Phongpaichit & Pornthep Benyaapikul (2012) 3.3 A Sluggish Labor Productivity Improvement Thus its impact on smaller return to labor 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
  • 25. 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 2533 2534 2535 2536 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 Head No. of farm laborers who work more than 20 hr/week by age อายุ 15-24 ปี รวม อายุ 25-34 ปี รวม อายุ 35-44 ปี รวม อายุ 45-54 ปี รวม 25 3.4 Encounter Farm Labor Shortage and Aging Farmers Source: Puapongsakorn Continuously declining agricultural labor force and demonstrating an increasing trend of aging farmers. 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
  • 26. 19.8 18.1 16.8 15.8 14.8 13.8 12.8 67.0 66.0 64.1 61.4 58.6 56.6 55.1 13.2 16.2 19.8 23.7 27.6 30.4 32.242,740 42,961 42,293 40,739 38,795 36,993 35,175 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 No. workforce age: thousand person Employee coverage(%) Age: 60 years up Age: 15-59 years Age: 0-14 years No. workforce age Thailand has already moved into aging society with increasing trend of dependent citizen 3.4 (Cont.) 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth Source: google.co.th
  • 27. 3.5 Moving Toward Free Trade Policy Threatening Small-scale Farmers Source: Department of Trade Negotiations Economic and market integrations are important but they create differential impacts from the agreements and leads to having new development measures of NTB or TBT.  Developed countries have stronger implementation of standards and quality which developing countries are difficult to achieve. Increasing new development measure for technical barrier to trade(TBT);  Agriculture in Thailand largely consists of small-scale farmers. They are facing difficulty in adjusting themselves to the new trade regulation. Access to new technology for better production and high quality standards is rather difficult. 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
  • 28. 3.6 Global Climate Change and Its Linkage to New Trade Regulation and Standards Distress in global climate change leads to reconsider in the use of global natural resources and environment. Extreme weather events, particularly drought and flood, increasing risk to agricultural production, threatening natural and agricultural ecosystem, increasing variation in food supply and farm income. Establishing a clear link between sustainable development and disciplined trade liberalization. 3. Problems Encountered Thailand Agricultural Growth
  • 29. 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT 29 สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ สถาบันคลังสมองของชาติ The 3th SUT International Agricultural Colloquium 2015 at Suranaree University of Technology, Nakorn Ratchasima Province, September 14, 2015
  • 30. 4.1 Stages of Caching-up Industrialization of Some Selected Countries 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT Source: Ohno, 2010
  • 31. Shifting away from growth that is driven primarily by factor accumulation. They should rather embrace growth based on productivity increases driven by improvements in the quality of human capital, product and innovation. 4.2 Essential Need to Reform the Agriculture for Escaping MIT Proactive policies on technology and innovation development. Enhancing productivity through creativity of new products with high quality and value for enable them to compete in the international markets.  Promoting physical capital accumulation and improvement through advanced infrastructure development, reducing regulation rigidity, including market reform. Source: Refered to Agenor, P.R.; Canuto,O. and Jelenic, M. (2012) Economic Premise; Creating new strategies for developing new products, processes, and markets are necessary. 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 32. 4.3 Theoretical Concept for Productivity and Capacity Enhancement Implying either productivity or quality enhancement and also inducing cost advantage and competitiveness. Note: TVP= Total Value Product Both product Innovation and process innovation are necessarily to create and develop. Need both product innovation and process innovation 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 33. 4.4 Triple Helix Model: A Synergy for Technology Transfer and Moving Up Agricultural Economy Source:Luis Farinha and João J. Ferreira (2013) The the triple helix is used to explain the relations between the academy, industry and government since innovation has become the decisive challenge for global competitiveness. The competitiveness of firms help to determine the flows of income and employment, creating regional and sectoral development and wealth creation. Social responsibility Environment Sustainability Economic sustainability The academy takes leading role as enhancing skills of human capital by knowledge and technology transfer. The government is a key interactions between the economic and social networks to ensure cooperation, partnership and institutional support. 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 34. 34 Knowledge Technology/ innovation Competitive advantage Competitiveness 4.5 Transforming Agriculture Toward Knowledge Base Driven Economy  A scarcity of production resource and environment, advanced in technology, in coupled with the free trade policy, have changed classical concept from let “Factor Driven Economy” to be a new concept of “Innovation Driven Economy” or “Knowledge-based Economy”.
  • 35. 4.5 (Cont.)  The concept is how to make use of the same certain amount of resource for a better quality and production value?  Integration of innovation, technology, social capital, local wisdom, and environmental value into the creation of product value. 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT Source: Termpittayaphaisith, NESDB 2013
  • 36. 4.5 (Cont.) Source: modified from Termpittayaphaisith, NESDB 2013  Newness  Knowledge or Creativity  Economic Benefits 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 37. University engagement New management skill  Specific variety 4.6 Empowering Rural Poors Through Enhancing Management Skills and Developing New Supply Chain  innovative technique  Social enterprise Source: Modified from Vanvicit 2014 Business engagement Community engagement Empowering farmers and community in production and business management skills Creating new and fair share supply chain linking up stream and down stream business activities  Fair trade Innovative products Public sector and government engagement Infrastructure improvements; ensuring property rights; regulatory governance; better extension services. 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 38. + New Technology Knowledge Management New Demand Existing Resource Endowment People Natural resources Cultural values Indigenous Knowledge “Thainess” Repackaging/Branding Real Products & Services Value Creation Balancing Economic & Social investment 4.7 Matching New Innovative Products with New Demand Using new innovation and knowledge management in creating new products and matching them with new market demand. Source: Modified from NESDB 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 39. High Antioxidants Selenium/ Folate/ Phytonutrients (สารฟฤกษเคมี) Low – medium glycemic index Iron and high Fe bioavailability Let Your Rice be Your Medicine ที่มา: รัชนี คงคาฉุยฉาย 2556 Good Quality High Nutrient For Longevity Life 4.8 Rice : Can It Be Innovated Beyond a Basic Staple Food? 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 40. 4.8 Rice (cont.) White rice 20 B/kg. Aromatic rice 35 B/kg. Nutritive rice >80 B/kg. Development toward healthy food &cosmetic ที่มา: ดัดแปลงจาก Apichart Vannvichit Organic Paddy 15 B/kg Organic white rice 30 B/kg Rice production Cosmetic/spa 5000 B/kg Riceberry oil Medicinal material 6,500 B/kg 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 41. ระบบการผลิต (Production System) ระบบการตลาด ( 4.9 Moving up Traditional Agricultural Supply Chain to Become Value Chain ระบบการแปรรูป (Processing System) Marketing System) ระบบการบร ิโภค (Consumption System) Using innovation and creativity for upgrading product value and value added. 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 42. Source: Stan Shih’s refered by Tangkitvanich et al., 2013 4.10 R&D: An Important Gearwheel for Moving Up the Value Chain Moving up the value chain implies a continuous process of change, innovation and productivity growth. Functional Upgrading Process Upgrading Product Upgrading R&D Planning and Designing Production Distribution Branding Activities under value chain Value added 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT Government engagement University engagement Business engagement Community engagement
  • 43. To be specialized in bio-base commodity Agriculture base การเกษตรอาเซียน 4.11 Renovating Agricultural-Base Economy to be Specialized in Bio-Base Economy 43 Time dimension To be specialize in commodity Industrial biotechnology; Biorefineries; Biobase chemistry; Biobase plastic and composites. 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 44. Citric acid industry Down stream production Feed mill industry Ethanol industry Mono sodium glutamate industry Paper industry Glue industry Textile industry Food industry Domestic Domestic Domestic 4.11 (Cont.) Pellet mills Cassava chip exporters Middle stream production Up stream production Middlemen/ Assemblers Local central markets Cassava flour mills Flour exporters Export Export Farmers produced cassava roots 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 45. 4.11(Cont.) Cassava roots Cassava pellets Cassava Chips Cassava flour 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT Paper Animal Feeds Ethanol Organic acid Modified starch Flour as a raw materials TextilePlywood Physical process Polyols;Sobitol;mannitol Dextrinized starch Bio- technology process Chemical process Pregelatinized starch Modified starch with heat Tapioca starch Acid thinned starch Starch ether Hydroxy-propyl starch Acetylated starch Oxidized starch Glucose; fructose;sweetener Amino acid; glutamat;lysine Organic acid;lactic acid;citric acid Alcohol;Ethanol
  • 46. 46 4.12 Transforming Agriculture As a Regional and Global Food Hub Responding to the need and interest of consumers in domestic and global markets Developing food technology and quality in comply with international food and safety standards Adopting WTO agreements on SPS measures for food quality and safety standards and other related agreements on trade. Investing in innovation for agro-industry food processing. Certifications, Inspection, Testing, Health-related labeling Environmental protection,. 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT
  • 47. GasifierBio-gas Clean gas ElectricityHusk from rice mills Residues from oil palm crushing mills วัศดุจากกระบวรการผลิตการเกษตร เหลือใช้ Generator 4.13 Moving Up Agriculture as a Source of Renewable Energy and Green Technology Bio-energy from biomass and agricultural residues Cellulosic Ethanol Agricultural fields and Windmills 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT Source: google.co.th
  • 48. 4.12 Policy Challenges Support a shift of economic activity towards more high value- added areas, raising productivity and quality. Addressing this through education and training policy requires a growing focus on life-long learning. Upgrading the human resource base: Enhancing R&I for raising competitiveness: increase the level of knowledge and technology embodied in production and exports, which would make competition through rising investment in R&D. Creating new areas of economic activity: Stimulating green and creative innovation and technology for new firms and entrepreneurships; 4. Renovating Thailand Agriculture in Avoiding From the MIT Enhancing the country and location attractiveness . Agricultural-Base Economy to be Specialized in Bio-Base Economy.  No political conflict would enhance FDI.
  • 49. Q&A