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METODI DI RISK MANAGEMENT
INQUADRAMENTO METODOLOGICO
UDINE, 27 OTTOBRE 2017
“Quandolavitascorrevalentamente
Comeunpigrofiume,
Lacomplessitàesisteva,
Manonvenivapercepita.
Oggituttilasentonoaddosso,
Perchéilritmosièfattoserrato,
Comeuntorrentevorticoso”
Ernesto illy,
Imprenditore
3materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Contesticomplessi
CONNESSIONI
numeroseenonlineari
Ilfuturostatodelsistema
puòessereintuito,non
previsto
ELEMENTI
moltiediversitraloro
Dati,Procedure,
Strumenti,Metodi,
Applicativi,
Location,Persone
MODIFICHE
continue,prevedibili
solosingolarmente
Lostatodelsistemaè
caratterizzatoda
incertezza
4materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
PRINCIPIODI INCOMPATIBILITÀ
(L.Zadeh)
altacomplessitàe altaprecisione
sonoincompatibili
Incertezza…
5materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Rischio
RISCHIO
(D.Hillson)
«Èl’incertezzacheconta»
6materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Perchéiprogettisono
rischiosi?
perviadelcontesto
perlelorocaratteristiche
perdeliberatascelta
7materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Ilconcettodirischio1/2
Probabilistiche:nonsi
hannocertezzecircailsuo
futuroaccadimento
Nonvienespecificatala
negativitàdell’effetto
finaledell’evento
Sfavorevoli
Favorevoli
DefinizionedalPMBoK®Guide,sestaedizione:
«Evento ocondizione incerta che,sesidovesse
verificare, avrebbe uneffettopositivoonegativo
suunoopiùobiettividiprogetto»
CARATTERISTICHE
CONSEGUENZE
8materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Ilconcettodirischio2/2
Probabilitàdisubireundanno Rischionegativo(minaccia):
probabilitàdisubireundanno
Rischiopositivo(opportunità):
probabilitàdiottenereun
vantaggio
Rischiocerto:
certezzacheuneventoaccada
(diventaunvincoloprogettuale)
Fatalità:
imprevedibilitàassoluta,
impossibilitàdipresidioo
mitigazione
materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it 9
«Lagestionedeirischidiprogettocomprendei
processirelativiallapianificazionedeirischi,allaloro
identificazione,analisi,pianificazionee
implementazionedellerisposteealmonitoraggiodei
rischiall’internodiunprogetto.
Gliobiettividellagestionedeirischidi
progettosonoquellidiaumentarela
probabilitàe/ol’impattodirischi
positivi(opportunità)e
ridurrelaprobabilità
e/ol’impattodirischinegativi
nelprogettoper
ottimizzarelesue
possibilitàdisuccesso.»
PMBoK®Guide,
sestaedizione
Lagestionedeirischidiprogetto
10materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Lagestionedeirischi:unprocessotrasversale
Pianificazionedella
gestionedeirischi
Identificazione
deirischi
Analisiqualitativa/
quantitativadei
rischi
Pianificazionee
esecuzionedella
rispostaairischi
Monitoraggio
deirischi
Analisidella
propensioneal
rischio
AnalisiSWOT
Rappresentaz.
mediantematricedi
probabilitàeimpatto
Definizionedelle
strategiedirisposta
airischi
Aggiornamentodel
registrodeirischi
PROCESSI
ESEMPIODI
STRUMENTOO
TECNICA
11materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Testaocroce?
100€oniente
50€subito
Propensionealrischio
Pianificazionedella
gestionedeirischi
Analisidella
propensioneal
rischio
puoisceglieretraduescenari
R I S K
AV O I D I N G
R I S K
S E E K I N G
R I S K
N E U T R A L
rispostadifronte
all’incertezza
panico euforia
12materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
AnalisiSWOT
PUNTIDIFORZAOPPORTUNITÀ
PUNTIDIDEBOLEZZAMINACCE
Identificazione
deirischi
AnalisiSWOT
Analisideipuntidiforzaedi
debolezza
dell’organizzazione,del
team,ecc.
Opportunitàperilprogetto
(daipuntidiforza)e
minacce(daipuntidi
debolezza)
Nascitadel«registrodei
rischi»
FASI
13materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
L’analisiqualitativadeirischi
Basso:
laprobabilitàchel’eventoavvenga
ètra1e40%
Medio:
laprobabilitàchel’eventoavvenga
ètrail41eil70%
Alto:
laprobabilitàchel’eventoavvenga
ètrail71eil99%
Basso:
impattoirrilevante,dovrebbe
esserenotificatoal
committente/sponsor
Medio:
impattonontrascurabile,
potrebbecausareilmancato
rispettodirequisiti,scadenzeodi
budget
Alto:
impattosignificativoepotrebbe
nuocereallariuscitadelprogetto
R=PxI
Analisiqualitativa/
quantitativadei
rischi
Rappresentaz.
mediantematricedi
probabilitàeimpatto
14materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
ALTA
Matricediprobabilità eimpatto
PROBABILITÀ
MINACCIA
MODERATA
MINACCIA
ELEVATA
MINACCIA
MOLTO
ELEVATA
IMPATTONEGATIVO
BASSO MEDIO ALTO
MINACCIA
BASSA
MINACCIA
MODERATA
MINACCIA
ELEVATA
MINACCIA
TRASCURABI
LE
MINACCIA
BASSA
MINACCIA
MODERATA
BASSA
MEDIA
OPPORTUNI
TÀMOLTO
ELEVATA
OPPORTUNI
TÀELEVATA
OPPORTUNI
TÀ
MODERATA
ALTO MEDIO BASSO
OPPORTUNI
TÀELEVATA
OPPORTUNI
TÀ
MODERATA
OPPORTUNI
TÀBASSA
OPPORTUNI
TÀ
MODERATA
OPPORTUNI
TÀBASSA
OPPORTUNI
TÀ
TRASCURABI
LE
IMPATTOPOSITIVO
MINACCE OPPORTUNITÀ
Analisiqualitativa/
quantitativadei
rischi
Rappresentaz.
mediantematricedi
probabilitàeimpatto
15materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Strategiedirispostaairischi
Pianificazioneed
esecuzionedella
rispostaairischi
Definizionedelle
strategiedirisposta
airischi
MINACCE OPPORTUNITÀ
Procedereall’escalation
Evitare Sfruttare
Trasferire Condividere
Mitigare Potenziare
Accettare
16materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Registrodeirischi
codice rischio valoredelrischio
azione
preventiva
responsabile scadenza
nuova
probabilità
nuovoimpatto
nuovovaloredel
rischio
001
Mercato
francese
instabile
25
Eliminare
FranciaperFase
1
PM 15/10 0 0 0
002
Ottenimento
certificazione
15
Ingaggiare
societàdi
consulenza
Acq 30/10
003
Innovazione
tecnologica
15
Collaudi
specifici
componenti
Qual 15/01
004
Testconcliente
Ger
3 Nessuna - -
005
006
007
008
Monitoraggio
deirischi
Aggiornamentodel
registrodeirischi
Valoridiprobabilitàeimpatto:BASSO=1;MEDIO=3;ALTO=5
17materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
LamappadelterritorioeilparadossodiBorges
18materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
università epartner
˃
laforzadiungruppo
startthevalue
passione epragmatismo
Operations&Project&Innovation
Management
ingegneriagestionale
Quininbreve
BUSINESS UNIT
FORMAZIONE
VALORI
SINERGIE
NETWORK
MISSION
CERTIFICAZIONI
19materialeriservatodiproprietàQUINs.r.l. www.quinlive.it
Quinbusinessunit:Project&InnovationManagement
Interventipermiglioraree
potenziareleattivitàconcuile
aziendedannovita
all'innovazioneointraprendono
progettiperottimizzarele
proprieattivitàorganizzative
PROJECT&
INNOVATION
MANAGEMENT
BusinessUnit
BUSINESS
MODEL
DESIGN
INNOVATION
PROCESS &
PROJECTS
PMPROCESS &
METHODOLOGY
COMPASS
Complexity
ProjectAssessment
SOFTWARE
SELECTION &
IMPLEMENTATION
TEMPORARY
MANAGEMENT
(Program&Project)
SviluppoPMO/
PMOaaS(PMO-as-a-
Service)
PROJECT&
INNOVATION
MANAGEMENT
BusinessUnit
PMACADEMY
AGILE
WATERFALL
«Seètuttosottocontrollo,allorastaiandandotroppopiano»
MarioAndretti,
Formula1WorldChampionnel1978
QUINS.r.l.LUCACOMELLO,PMP®
HeadofBusinessConsulting
luca.comello@quinlive.it
Tel.: 0432570000
E-mail: info@quinlive.it
Sito: www.quinlive.it

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Metodi di Risk Management