China medium term growth scenario (IMF)

1. Medium Term Scenario
April 2012

2. 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
Gross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 10.4 9.2 8.2 8.8
Inflation, average consumer prices Percent change 3.3 5.4 3.3 3.0
Current account balance U.S. dollars 305 201 182 229
Unemployment rate Percent of total labor force 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0
General government gross debt Percent of GDP 33.5 25.8 22.0 19.4
Total investment Percent of GDP 48 48 48 48
Gross national savings Percent of GDP 53 51 51 51
Volume of imports of goods and services Percent change 20.1 9.5 10.1 10.9
Volume of exports of goods and services Percent change 28.4 8.2 6.7 9.9
GDP growth falls in 2012, and returns to near 9% in 2013
Inflation will be under control at 3%
Export strength returns as Europe and US demand expand in 2013
Unemployment rate remains at 4%
Investment remains structurally high at near 50% of entire economy
Savings remain high

3. China: GDP growth (IMF)
12
10.4
10 9.2
8.8 8.7
8.2
8
6
4
2
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

4. World GDP growth (IMF)
6
5.3
5
4.4
4.1
4 3.9
3.5
3
2
1
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-1
World Europe US

5. Metal Price: All metal and Aluminum ($, 2005=100)
250
230
202 206 204
200
150
126 124
114 118
100
50
0
2010 2011 2012 2013
Commodity Price AL Price

6. China: GDP growth VS Industrial Production growth
16.00
13.8
14.00
12.0
12.00 11.5
10.2
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP IP