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1. OADA Web Presentation Economic and Auto Outlook 2009 Presented by Carlos Gomes Senior Economist, Scotiabank Sponsored by LeaseBusters

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9. Carlos Gomes Senior Economist Industry Research The Scotiabank Group, Toronto Presentation to : Ontario Automobile Dealers Association Toronto, Ontario April 7, 2009 Economic & Auto Industry Outlook: 2009 Searching for a Bottom

10. Global Economic Growth United States & Western Europe yr/yr % change yr/yr % change Global Growth Global Growth Moderates U.S. Real GDP Euro-zone Real GDP Emerging Markets

11. Gradual Improvement in Assemblies to Begin by Spring New Domestics to Surpass Detroit Three Output in Early 2009 millions of units North American Vehicle Production Sharp Inventory Adjustment New Domestics Detroit Three U.S. Dealer Inventories days’ supply millions of units forecast North American Vehicle Production

12. Boom, Bust, and Early Stabilization U.S. Home Sales (LHS) index Coincidence to Lagging Ratio (RHS) ISM (RHS) index millions of units Baltic Dry Index (LHS) U.S. Housing & Manufacturing Key Leading Indicators index

13. Canadian Economy Slows… yr/yr % change Manufacturing – Canada (LHS) Services – Canada (RHS) Manufacturing Leads Slowdown yr/yr % change Employment – Canada (RHS) … Lifting Unemployment % Unemployment Rate – Ontario Unemployment Rate – Canada

14. U.S. Affordability Remains Strained yr/yr % change U.S. Housing Affordability Index U.S. Median House Prices U.S. House Prices Decline Spreads index International House Prices U.K. House Prices Canada – MLS Prices yr/yr % change Ontario – MLS Prices

15. U.S. Housing Recession Plunging U.S. Home Sales … mn units New Home Sales Existing Home Sales mn units months’ supply Existing Home Sales … And Soaring Inventories New Home Sales Balanced Market

16. Low Rates For a Long Time Canada 10-yr Gov’t. Bond U.S. 10-yr T-Bond % Canada-U.S. Bond Spread Canada U.S. Canada-U.S. Central Bank Spread % Source: Bank of Canada; Federal Reserve; Global Insight; Scotia Economics Central Bank Rates Canadian & U.S. Bond Yields forecast forecast

17. U.S. Real Fed Funds & Financial Stress % Ted Spread U.S. Real Fed Funds Financial Conditions Begin To Ease U.S. Real Fed Funds & Real GDP yr/yr % change % % Real GDP Real Fed Funds

18. Financial Stress/Event Risk In Financial Markets Franklin National First Penn Drysdale Securities/Mexican Default Continental Illinois Black Monday S&L Crisis Peso Crisis Asian Currency Crisis LTCM/Russia Default NASDAQ Bubble Subprime Meltdown Penn Central Ted Spread % Gulf War Y2K Silver Bubble Latin American Debt Crisis Ted Spread is a three month LIBOR minus three month T-bills Lehman Bros

19. Boom, Bust, and Stabilization S&P 500 (LHS) S&P/TSX (RHS) TED Spread (LHS) Emerging Markets (LHS) index Emerging Markets (RHS) Stocks Stress index index %

20. Fiscal Stimulus To The Rescue Coordinated Fiscal Stimulus % of GDP Source: OECD, IMF, BNS. Timing of Package 2010 2009 2008 42 37 21 United States 75 93 73 46 41 NA 25 0 France 24 4 Japan -8 15 United Kingdom 54 0 Germany 47 12 Canada NA NA China

21. Canadian Households in Better Shape Canada U.S. % of household real estate Canada U.S. Household Debt % of household assets Household Equity

22. United States millions of units Auto Sales Housing Starts Auto & Housing Cycles millions of units Canada thousands of units Auto Sales Housing Starts thousands of units forecast forecast

23. Buying Plans & Vehicle Sales % yr/yr % change Employment & Vehicle Sales millions of units millions of units Employment Growth & Confidence Drive Vehicle Sales Canadian Vehicle Sales Employment Canadian Vehicle Sales Households Planning a Major Purchase

24. New Car Prices Decline U.S. New Car Prices & Employment yr/yr% change U.S. Car Prices U.S. Private Sector Employment Canadian Dollar & New Vehicle Prices 000’s of U.S. dollars Canadian Dollar Vehicle Prices CAD/USD 08 07 06 05 09

25. Used Vehicle Imports Moderate, Supporting Prices Vehicle Imports Surge as C$ Strengthens Used Car Prices are Under Pressure yr/yr% change thousands of units Vehicle Imports Scotiabank Used Car Price Index – One-Year Old Models Canadian Dollar US cents Manheim Used Vehicle Index – United States

26. Canada’s Vehicle Fleet… per cent of total fleet Vehicles 4 Years or Less Vehicles 9 Years or Older Source: R.L. Polk & Co and Desrosiers Automotive Consultants Canada Vehicle Fleet Ontario’s Vehicle Fleet % of total fleet Vehicles 4 Years or Less Vehicles 9 Years or Older

27. Ontario Vehicle Fleet Ontario’s Aging Fleet … ... Has Many Vehicles At Least 11 Years Old Vehicles 11 Years or Older millions of units Vehicles 9 Years or Older Vehicles 4 Years or Less millions of units Source: R.L. Polk & Co and Desrosiers Automotive Consultants

28. Small Cars Dominate The Canadian Markets … thousands of units Medium Cars Small Cars … But Crossover Utility Vehicles Are Growing Rapidly thousands of units CUVs SUVs New Vehicle Market -- Canada Pickup Trucks

29. Ontario Automobile Sales thousands of units Ontario Vehicle Sales – An Historical Perspective forecast

30. This Report is prepared by Scotia Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank and Scotia Capital. While the information is from sources believed reliable, neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which The Bank of Nova Scotia or Scotia Capital Inc. or any of their employees incur responsibility.

31. Carlos Gomes Senior Economist Industry Research The Scotiabank Group, Toronto Presentation to : Ontario Automobile Dealers Association Toronto, Ontario April 7, 2009 Economic & Auto Industry Outlook: 2009 Searching for a Bottom