SlideShare a Scribd company logo
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
Sociophysics’ Modelling
Bhavin Tandel
Dept. of Mathematics
Outline
β€’Introduction
β€’Elements of Society
β€’Physical approach to social behaviour
β€’Interaction
β€’Schelling Model
β€’Strike Phenomena
β€’Bottom up voting Scheme
What is Sociophysics’ ?
Do human behaves like atom ?
Transferring ideas and concept of Physics to understand social behaviour.
Sum of activities of searching for fundamental laws and principles that characterize human
behaviour.
Modelling an individual is really complex.
Quantitative laws in the collective properties of a large number of people.
Different models of sociophysics: Opinion Dynamics, voting in bottom-up hierarchical system,
Decision making, cultures and language evolution, traffic dynamics, Terrorism spreading.
Elements of Society
Agents
Groups
Interactions
Classes
Neighbourhood(von Neumann and Moore)
States: Collective vs Individual
North
East
South
West
North
North-east
East
South-east
South
South-west
West
North-west
Physical approach to social behaviour
Social system involve cooperative behaviour of number of people.
Group behave like one collective individual.
Model: individual has to make choice β€˜yes’ or β€˜no’. (minimum pair individual conflict)
Polarization or compromise.
Rationale behind model: Ising Ferromagnetic model
Spin can be 𝜎 = +1 π‘œπ‘Ÿ βˆ’ 1
E is total energy of the system, J is the nearest spin-spin
interaction energy, H is external magnetic field. Οƒ=+1 or -1.
Interaction
Pair of person i and j interacts.
(i) 𝑐𝑖 = 𝑐𝑗 = +1, (ii)𝑐𝑖 = 𝑐𝑗 = βˆ’1, (iii) 𝑐𝑖 = βˆ’π‘π‘— = +1, (iv) 𝑐𝑖 = βˆ’π‘π‘—= βˆ’1
They agree in configuration (i) & (ii) and disagree in (iii) & (iv).
πΊπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘’π‘ π‘π‘œπ‘›π‘“π‘™π‘–π‘π‘‘, 𝐺𝐼 ≑ 𝐼 <𝑖,𝑗> 𝐢𝑖 𝐢𝑗
Majority rule
Starting configuration:
50% random β€˜on’
Rule:
β€˜on’ if 5 or more Moore neighbours
and self are β€˜on’,
β€˜off’ if 5 or more Moore
neighbours and self are β€˜off’
Schelling Model
β€’Study of ethnic segregation in USA in 1971.
β€’Schelling supposed that people had a threshold of tolerance of other ethnic
groups based on the neighboured people.
40% Threshold
HAPPY
Strike Phenomena
To Work To strike
Individual Production πœ‡π‘– = 2( πœ‡π‘– βˆ’
1
2
), πœ‡π‘– = 1 (working) , πœ‡π‘– =-1 (not working)
Two agents i& j interacts with coupling 𝐽𝑖,𝑗
Depending upon synchronization, Dissatisfaction: βˆ’π½π‘–,𝑗 πœ‡π‘– πœ‡ 𝑗
External field, 𝐻 = π‘Š βˆ’ 𝐸, Dissatisfaction: βˆ’π»πœ‡π‘–
(W = actual wage and E = minimum expected salary)
Collective dissatisfaction function, 𝓗 = βˆ’ π’Š,𝒋 π‘±π’Š,𝒋 ππ’Š 𝝁𝒋 βˆ’ 𝑯 π’Š=𝟏
𝑡
ππ’Š
OR
Dissatisfaction function F versus M for K < K
The limit of metastability for H < 0. F has only one minimum.
M versus H for K < Kc. Arrows show the direction
of change for H. Dashed lines denote metastable states.
Dot-dash lines show possible jumps from metastable to stable
states.
A metastable case with H < 0. The dash arrow
indicates the eventual jump into a stable strike state driven
by some external action
Insight obtained
(i) Striking versus working state: Amplitude of strike will be identical to that of working.
(ii) Avoiding strike cheaper than to put a firm back to work:
(iii) Disordered state for K > Kc, Average individual production = 0 Then,
If
H > 0
No Strike
If
H < 0
Strike can be avoided if in
metastable state
If
H < 0
StrikeWork TrueFalse
Bottom up Voting in Hierarchical systems
Rule: Local Majority Rule
Population: A & B
Group size: r
Outcome of groups: A with P1 = R(P0)
B with (1 – P1)
Different group size
β€’ Group of size 3(Odd) : 𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑝 𝑛
3 + 3𝑝 𝑛
2(1 βˆ’ 𝑝 𝑛)
Including power inertia
Group with size 4 (even): 2A – 2B situation
If tied then outcome favours in B.
For A to be elected at level n+1
𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑝 𝑛
4
+ 4𝑝 𝑛
3
1 βˆ’ 𝑝 𝑛
For B to be elected at level n+1
1 βˆ’ 𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑝 𝑛
4 + 4𝑝 𝑛
3 1 βˆ’ 𝑝 𝑛 + 2𝑝 𝑛
2 1 βˆ’ 𝑝 𝑛
2 Bias in favour of B
Insight obtained
Essential and surprising mechanism of majority rule voting.
Empirical difficulty in changing leaderships in well established institution.
Ex. Sudden and quick collapse of eastern European communist parties.( one reason was end of
the Soviet army threat) : can be result of long and punctual phenomena internally.
Successfully predicted the French Referendum case: first proposition of European constitute.
Either parliamentary procedure or national referendum. In France, president Jacques Chirac
decided to hold referendum. Majority β€˜yes’
References
β€’Sociophysics: A review of Galam models, Serge Galam
β€’Rational Group Decision Making A Random field Ising model at T = 0, Serge Galam
β€’Econophysics and Sociophysics (Edited by B.K. Chakrabarti, A. Chakraborti, A Chatterjee)
Thank You !!!

More Related Content

Similar to Mathematical modelling

Phenomenology of social dynamics
Phenomenology of social dynamicsPhenomenology of social dynamics
Phenomenology of social dynamicsindianelections2009
Β 
Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election
Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election
Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election
Jun Steed Huang
Β 
Introductory_Statistics_Masters student (1).ppt
Introductory_Statistics_Masters student (1).pptIntroductory_Statistics_Masters student (1).ppt
Introductory_Statistics_Masters student (1).ppt
MridhaMohammadAlamin3
Β 
Quantum Models of Cognition and Decision
Quantum Models of Cognition and DecisionQuantum Models of Cognition and Decision
Quantum Models of Cognition and Decision
Catarina Moreira
Β 
Political Economy
Political EconomyPolitical Economy
Political Economy
WanyuC
Β 
Sigma xi showcase_2013_draft0
Sigma xi showcase_2013_draft0Sigma xi showcase_2013_draft0
Sigma xi showcase_2013_draft0Edward Lee
Β 
Chi square
Chi squareChi square
Statistical Mechanics of SCOTUS
Statistical Mechanics of SCOTUSStatistical Mechanics of SCOTUS
Statistical Mechanics of SCOTUS
Edward Lee
Β 
Intersectionality and Socioeconomic Resources
Intersectionality and Socioeconomic ResourcesIntersectionality and Socioeconomic Resources
Intersectionality and Socioeconomic Resources
jdubrow2000
Β 
Research Methods In Social Psychology
Research Methods In Social PsychologyResearch Methods In Social Psychology
Research Methods In Social PsychologyMostafa Ewees
Β 
Collective Decision Making Systems: From the Ideal State to Human Eudaimonia
Collective Decision Making Systems: From the Ideal State to Human EudaimoniaCollective Decision Making Systems: From the Ideal State to Human Eudaimonia
Collective Decision Making Systems: From the Ideal State to Human Eudaimonia
Marko Rodriguez
Β 
What is simulation and what use is it?
What is simulation and what use is it?What is simulation and what use is it?
What is simulation and what use is it?
Edmund Chattoe-Brown
Β 

Similar to Mathematical modelling (12)

Phenomenology of social dynamics
Phenomenology of social dynamicsPhenomenology of social dynamics
Phenomenology of social dynamics
Β 
Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election
Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election
Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election
Β 
Introductory_Statistics_Masters student (1).ppt
Introductory_Statistics_Masters student (1).pptIntroductory_Statistics_Masters student (1).ppt
Introductory_Statistics_Masters student (1).ppt
Β 
Quantum Models of Cognition and Decision
Quantum Models of Cognition and DecisionQuantum Models of Cognition and Decision
Quantum Models of Cognition and Decision
Β 
Political Economy
Political EconomyPolitical Economy
Political Economy
Β 
Sigma xi showcase_2013_draft0
Sigma xi showcase_2013_draft0Sigma xi showcase_2013_draft0
Sigma xi showcase_2013_draft0
Β 
Chi square
Chi squareChi square
Chi square
Β 
Statistical Mechanics of SCOTUS
Statistical Mechanics of SCOTUSStatistical Mechanics of SCOTUS
Statistical Mechanics of SCOTUS
Β 
Intersectionality and Socioeconomic Resources
Intersectionality and Socioeconomic ResourcesIntersectionality and Socioeconomic Resources
Intersectionality and Socioeconomic Resources
Β 
Research Methods In Social Psychology
Research Methods In Social PsychologyResearch Methods In Social Psychology
Research Methods In Social Psychology
Β 
Collective Decision Making Systems: From the Ideal State to Human Eudaimonia
Collective Decision Making Systems: From the Ideal State to Human EudaimoniaCollective Decision Making Systems: From the Ideal State to Human Eudaimonia
Collective Decision Making Systems: From the Ideal State to Human Eudaimonia
Β 
What is simulation and what use is it?
What is simulation and what use is it?What is simulation and what use is it?
What is simulation and what use is it?
Β 

Recently uploaded

Chapter 4 - Islamic Financial Institutions in Malaysia.pptx
Chapter 4 - Islamic Financial Institutions in Malaysia.pptxChapter 4 - Islamic Financial Institutions in Malaysia.pptx
Chapter 4 - Islamic Financial Institutions in Malaysia.pptx
Mohd Adib Abd Muin, Senior Lecturer at Universiti Utara Malaysia
Β 
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
JosvitaDsouza2
Β 
MASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdf
MASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdfMASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdf
MASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdf
goswamiyash170123
Β 
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
Celine George
Β 
Pride Month Slides 2024 David Douglas School District
Pride Month Slides 2024 David Douglas School DistrictPride Month Slides 2024 David Douglas School District
Pride Month Slides 2024 David Douglas School District
David Douglas School District
Β 
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela TaraOperation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Balvir Singh
Β 
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptxThe Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
DhatriParmar
Β 
Executive Directors Chat Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Executive Directors Chat  Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and InclusionExecutive Directors Chat  Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Executive Directors Chat Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
TechSoup
Β 
The Accursed House by Γ‰mile Gaboriau.pptx
The Accursed House by Γ‰mile Gaboriau.pptxThe Accursed House by Γ‰mile Gaboriau.pptx
The Accursed House by Γ‰mile Gaboriau.pptx
DhatriParmar
Β 
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
Jisc
Β 
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama UniversityNatural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Akanksha trivedi rama nursing college kanpur.
Β 
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdfCACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
camakaiclarkmusic
Β 
Azure Interview Questions and Answers PDF By ScholarHat
Azure Interview Questions and Answers PDF By ScholarHatAzure Interview Questions and Answers PDF By ScholarHat
Azure Interview Questions and Answers PDF By ScholarHat
Scholarhat
Β 
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Ashokrao Mane college of Pharmacy Peth-Vadgaon
Β 
A Survey of Techniques for Maximizing LLM Performance.pptx
A Survey of Techniques for Maximizing LLM Performance.pptxA Survey of Techniques for Maximizing LLM Performance.pptx
A Survey of Techniques for Maximizing LLM Performance.pptx
thanhdowork
Β 
special B.ed 2nd year old paper_20240531.pdf
special B.ed 2nd year old paper_20240531.pdfspecial B.ed 2nd year old paper_20240531.pdf
special B.ed 2nd year old paper_20240531.pdf
Special education needs
Β 
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official PublicationThe Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
Delapenabediema
Β 
Multithreading_in_C++ - std::thread, race condition
Multithreading_in_C++ - std::thread, race conditionMultithreading_in_C++ - std::thread, race condition
Multithreading_in_C++ - std::thread, race condition
Mohammed Sikander
Β 
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxSynthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Pavel ( NSTU)
Β 
Unit 2- Research Aptitude (UGC NET Paper I).pdf
Unit 2- Research Aptitude (UGC NET Paper I).pdfUnit 2- Research Aptitude (UGC NET Paper I).pdf
Unit 2- Research Aptitude (UGC NET Paper I).pdf
Thiyagu K
Β 

Recently uploaded (20)

Chapter 4 - Islamic Financial Institutions in Malaysia.pptx
Chapter 4 - Islamic Financial Institutions in Malaysia.pptxChapter 4 - Islamic Financial Institutions in Malaysia.pptx
Chapter 4 - Islamic Financial Institutions in Malaysia.pptx
Β 
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
1.4 modern child centered education - mahatma gandhi-2.pptx
Β 
MASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdf
MASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdfMASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdf
MASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdf
Β 
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17
Β 
Pride Month Slides 2024 David Douglas School District
Pride Month Slides 2024 David Douglas School DistrictPride Month Slides 2024 David Douglas School District
Pride Month Slides 2024 David Douglas School District
Β 
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela TaraOperation Blue Star   -  Saka Neela Tara
Operation Blue Star - Saka Neela Tara
Β 
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptxThe Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
The Diamond Necklace by Guy De Maupassant.pptx
Β 
Executive Directors Chat Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Executive Directors Chat  Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and InclusionExecutive Directors Chat  Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Executive Directors Chat Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Β 
The Accursed House by Γ‰mile Gaboriau.pptx
The Accursed House by Γ‰mile Gaboriau.pptxThe Accursed House by Γ‰mile Gaboriau.pptx
The Accursed House by Γ‰mile Gaboriau.pptx
Β 
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
Β 
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama UniversityNatural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Natural birth techniques - Mrs.Akanksha Trivedi Rama University
Β 
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdfCACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
CACJapan - GROUP Presentation 1- Wk 4.pdf
Β 
Azure Interview Questions and Answers PDF By ScholarHat
Azure Interview Questions and Answers PDF By ScholarHatAzure Interview Questions and Answers PDF By ScholarHat
Azure Interview Questions and Answers PDF By ScholarHat
Β 
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Biological Screening of Herbal Drugs in detailed.
Β 
A Survey of Techniques for Maximizing LLM Performance.pptx
A Survey of Techniques for Maximizing LLM Performance.pptxA Survey of Techniques for Maximizing LLM Performance.pptx
A Survey of Techniques for Maximizing LLM Performance.pptx
Β 
special B.ed 2nd year old paper_20240531.pdf
special B.ed 2nd year old paper_20240531.pdfspecial B.ed 2nd year old paper_20240531.pdf
special B.ed 2nd year old paper_20240531.pdf
Β 
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official PublicationThe Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
The Challenger.pdf DNHS Official Publication
Β 
Multithreading_in_C++ - std::thread, race condition
Multithreading_in_C++ - std::thread, race conditionMultithreading_in_C++ - std::thread, race condition
Multithreading_in_C++ - std::thread, race condition
Β 
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxSynthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptx
Β 
Unit 2- Research Aptitude (UGC NET Paper I).pdf
Unit 2- Research Aptitude (UGC NET Paper I).pdfUnit 2- Research Aptitude (UGC NET Paper I).pdf
Unit 2- Research Aptitude (UGC NET Paper I).pdf
Β 

Mathematical modelling

  • 2. Outline β€’Introduction β€’Elements of Society β€’Physical approach to social behaviour β€’Interaction β€’Schelling Model β€’Strike Phenomena β€’Bottom up voting Scheme
  • 3. What is Sociophysics’ ? Do human behaves like atom ? Transferring ideas and concept of Physics to understand social behaviour. Sum of activities of searching for fundamental laws and principles that characterize human behaviour. Modelling an individual is really complex. Quantitative laws in the collective properties of a large number of people. Different models of sociophysics: Opinion Dynamics, voting in bottom-up hierarchical system, Decision making, cultures and language evolution, traffic dynamics, Terrorism spreading.
  • 4. Elements of Society Agents Groups Interactions Classes Neighbourhood(von Neumann and Moore) States: Collective vs Individual North East South West North North-east East South-east South South-west West North-west
  • 5. Physical approach to social behaviour Social system involve cooperative behaviour of number of people. Group behave like one collective individual. Model: individual has to make choice β€˜yes’ or β€˜no’. (minimum pair individual conflict) Polarization or compromise. Rationale behind model: Ising Ferromagnetic model Spin can be 𝜎 = +1 π‘œπ‘Ÿ βˆ’ 1 E is total energy of the system, J is the nearest spin-spin interaction energy, H is external magnetic field. Οƒ=+1 or -1.
  • 6. Interaction Pair of person i and j interacts. (i) 𝑐𝑖 = 𝑐𝑗 = +1, (ii)𝑐𝑖 = 𝑐𝑗 = βˆ’1, (iii) 𝑐𝑖 = βˆ’π‘π‘— = +1, (iv) 𝑐𝑖 = βˆ’π‘π‘—= βˆ’1 They agree in configuration (i) & (ii) and disagree in (iii) & (iv). πΊπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘’π‘ π‘π‘œπ‘›π‘“π‘™π‘–π‘π‘‘, 𝐺𝐼 ≑ 𝐼 <𝑖,𝑗> 𝐢𝑖 𝐢𝑗 Majority rule Starting configuration: 50% random β€˜on’ Rule: β€˜on’ if 5 or more Moore neighbours and self are β€˜on’, β€˜off’ if 5 or more Moore neighbours and self are β€˜off’
  • 7. Schelling Model β€’Study of ethnic segregation in USA in 1971. β€’Schelling supposed that people had a threshold of tolerance of other ethnic groups based on the neighboured people. 40% Threshold HAPPY
  • 8. Strike Phenomena To Work To strike Individual Production πœ‡π‘– = 2( πœ‡π‘– βˆ’ 1 2 ), πœ‡π‘– = 1 (working) , πœ‡π‘– =-1 (not working) Two agents i& j interacts with coupling 𝐽𝑖,𝑗 Depending upon synchronization, Dissatisfaction: βˆ’π½π‘–,𝑗 πœ‡π‘– πœ‡ 𝑗 External field, 𝐻 = π‘Š βˆ’ 𝐸, Dissatisfaction: βˆ’π»πœ‡π‘– (W = actual wage and E = minimum expected salary) Collective dissatisfaction function, 𝓗 = βˆ’ π’Š,𝒋 π‘±π’Š,𝒋 ππ’Š 𝝁𝒋 βˆ’ 𝑯 π’Š=𝟏 𝑡 ππ’Š OR
  • 9. Dissatisfaction function F versus M for K < K The limit of metastability for H < 0. F has only one minimum. M versus H for K < Kc. Arrows show the direction of change for H. Dashed lines denote metastable states. Dot-dash lines show possible jumps from metastable to stable states. A metastable case with H < 0. The dash arrow indicates the eventual jump into a stable strike state driven by some external action
  • 10. Insight obtained (i) Striking versus working state: Amplitude of strike will be identical to that of working. (ii) Avoiding strike cheaper than to put a firm back to work: (iii) Disordered state for K > Kc, Average individual production = 0 Then, If H > 0 No Strike If H < 0 Strike can be avoided if in metastable state If H < 0 StrikeWork TrueFalse
  • 11. Bottom up Voting in Hierarchical systems Rule: Local Majority Rule Population: A & B Group size: r Outcome of groups: A with P1 = R(P0) B with (1 – P1)
  • 12. Different group size β€’ Group of size 3(Odd) : 𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑝 𝑛 3 + 3𝑝 𝑛 2(1 βˆ’ 𝑝 𝑛)
  • 13. Including power inertia Group with size 4 (even): 2A – 2B situation If tied then outcome favours in B. For A to be elected at level n+1 𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑝 𝑛 4 + 4𝑝 𝑛 3 1 βˆ’ 𝑝 𝑛 For B to be elected at level n+1 1 βˆ’ 𝑃𝑛+1 = 𝑝 𝑛 4 + 4𝑝 𝑛 3 1 βˆ’ 𝑝 𝑛 + 2𝑝 𝑛 2 1 βˆ’ 𝑝 𝑛 2 Bias in favour of B
  • 14. Insight obtained Essential and surprising mechanism of majority rule voting. Empirical difficulty in changing leaderships in well established institution. Ex. Sudden and quick collapse of eastern European communist parties.( one reason was end of the Soviet army threat) : can be result of long and punctual phenomena internally. Successfully predicted the French Referendum case: first proposition of European constitute. Either parliamentary procedure or national referendum. In France, president Jacques Chirac decided to hold referendum. Majority β€˜yes’
  • 15. References β€’Sociophysics: A review of Galam models, Serge Galam β€’Rational Group Decision Making A Random field Ising model at T = 0, Serge Galam β€’Econophysics and Sociophysics (Edited by B.K. Chakrabarti, A. Chakraborti, A Chatterjee) Thank You !!!