The document outlines the strategic plan for Utah CASA from 2015-2020. The plan has three main goals: 1) Increase community awareness and relationships with partners, 2) Improve volunteer recruitment and retention through diverse outreach and comprehensive training, and 3) Ensure program excellence through quality training for volunteers and ongoing support from program coordinators. Objectives and actions are outlined for each goal to guide Utah CASA's work over the five year period.
O documento descreve soluções financeiras da Caixa para ajudar empresas a gerir e crescer seus negócios, incluindo linhas de crédito, gestão de tesouraria, investimento e internacionalização. A Caixa oferece uma variedade de produtos e serviços como financiamento, fundos de investimento e cartões para apoiar diferentes áreas do negócio como tesouraria, pagamentos, investimentos e exportações.
La pesca submarina implica bucear sin equipo de respiración para cazar peces con arpón. Requiere resistencia a la presión del agua y camuflaje para acechar presas. Es una técnica antigua que actualmente usa gomas elásticas para propulsar el arpón con potencia.
Pemerintah mengumumkan paket stimulus ekonomi baru untuk menyelamatkan bisnis dan pekerjaan yang terkena dampak virus corona. Paket ini mencakup insentif pajak, keringanan pinjaman, dan bantuan tunai langsung untuk warga yang terdampak. Langkah ini diharapkan dapat memperkuat ekonomi dan mencegah resesi akibat wabah global ini.
This document is a 6-page unofficial transcript for Ariel Endsley listing military courses completed between 2011-2013. It includes courses in areas such as marksmanship, land navigation, aviation maintenance, electronics troubleshooting, and combat skills. Locations include bases in North Carolina, Florida, California, and correspondence courses through the Marine Corps Institute.
The document outlines the strategic plan for Utah CASA from 2015-2020. The plan has three main goals: 1) Increase community awareness and relationships with partners, 2) Improve volunteer recruitment and retention through diverse outreach and comprehensive training, and 3) Ensure program excellence through quality training for volunteers and ongoing support from program coordinators. Objectives and actions are outlined for each goal to guide Utah CASA's work over the five year period.
O documento descreve soluções financeiras da Caixa para ajudar empresas a gerir e crescer seus negócios, incluindo linhas de crédito, gestão de tesouraria, investimento e internacionalização. A Caixa oferece uma variedade de produtos e serviços como financiamento, fundos de investimento e cartões para apoiar diferentes áreas do negócio como tesouraria, pagamentos, investimentos e exportações.
La pesca submarina implica bucear sin equipo de respiración para cazar peces con arpón. Requiere resistencia a la presión del agua y camuflaje para acechar presas. Es una técnica antigua que actualmente usa gomas elásticas para propulsar el arpón con potencia.
Pemerintah mengumumkan paket stimulus ekonomi baru untuk menyelamatkan bisnis dan pekerjaan yang terkena dampak virus corona. Paket ini mencakup insentif pajak, keringanan pinjaman, dan bantuan tunai langsung untuk warga yang terdampak. Langkah ini diharapkan dapat memperkuat ekonomi dan mencegah resesi akibat wabah global ini.
This document is a 6-page unofficial transcript for Ariel Endsley listing military courses completed between 2011-2013. It includes courses in areas such as marksmanship, land navigation, aviation maintenance, electronics troubleshooting, and combat skills. Locations include bases in North Carolina, Florida, California, and correspondence courses through the Marine Corps Institute.
Adolf Benca is a painter and artist based in New York City. He received his MFA from Columbia University and BFA from Cooper Union. Benca has had numerous solo and group exhibitions in galleries across the United States and Europe. His work is in the permanent collections of several major museums and he has received fellowships from the Pollock-Krasner Foundation, Fulbright Program, and New York Foundation for the Arts among others.
1) O documento discute quatro efeitos que modificam a curva C-V básica de um capacitor MOS: a presença de cargas no óxido, a depleção no gate de silício policristalino, a espessura da camada de carga na acumulação e inversão, e efeitos quânticos.
2) A presença de cargas no óxido modifica as tensões de flat-band e threshold, devido ao campo elétrico adicional induzido pelas cargas no óxido.
3) A deple
ITM Power manufactures integrated hydrogen energy systems for energy storage and clean fuel production using proton exchange membrane (PEM) technology. In the past year, ITM Power has achieved commercial progress including reducing electrolyser system costs, launching the first London hydrogen refueling station, and securing grants for hydrogen infrastructure projects. ITM Power is well positioned for continued growth as the market for hydrogen energy solutions increases globally.
El documento habla sobre Internet, sus inicios como una red militar estadounidense, y la evolución hacia su uso mundial. Explica qué son los navegadores web y menciona los principales como Google Chrome, Safari, Internet Explorer, Mozilla Firefox y Opera. Incluye tablas comparando las características de velocidad, seguridad, privacidad y personalización de diferentes navegadores. Concluye que no existe un mejor navegador, sino que cada usuario elige el que más se ajusta a sus necesidades.
ITM Power designs and manufactures hydrogen energy systems for energy storage and clean fuel production. In the year ending April 2011:
- They achieved their first product revenues which were above expectations.
- They received £1.09 million in grants from the UK government and have secured an additional £1.2 million in future grants.
- They are positioned for future growth with unique hydrogen generation technology, an early focus on developing product revenues, and opportunities in rapidly developing hydrogen markets globally.
The Role of Agent Based Modelling in Facilitating Well-being Research: An Int...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
One difficulty with integrating research on wellbeing is that the social sciences are fundamentally divided (both externally and internally) by the methods they use and the theories they endorse. In particular, statisticians and ethnographers cannot establish a common basis for resolving their debate about how much “detail” matters to understanding of social behaviour and thus effectively form non- interacting research communities. This paper presents a novel methodology (Agent Based Modelling, hereafter ABM) for integrating both data and theory in the field of wellbeing research. (In terms of novelty, ABM is not represented, for example, in the Journal of Happiness Studies.) It explains the methodology (which involves expressing social process theories as computer programs rather than equations or narratives), presents a basic synthetic simulation of the processes by which different levels of individual wellbeing may occur (taking some account of economic, social and psychological processes), discusses the significance of the results and their implications and concludes by suggesting how ABM could be used to support the development of an agenda for wellbeing research in a genuinely interdisciplinary way.
As Simple as Possible But No Simpler: Agent-Based Modelling Meets Sociology a...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
This document discusses agent-based modeling and its applications for social science. It begins by introducing the Schelling segregation model, a simple agent-based model that demonstrates how residential segregation can emerge from individual preferences. The document then addresses how agent-based models can formalize theories, synthesize competing theories, and allow experiments not otherwise possible. It provides two case studies on dynamic church membership and the social transmission of choices to illustrate the method. Overall, the document argues that agent-based modeling is a valuable tool for social science that allows integrating data and analyzing theories in a way not possible with other methods.
The Complexity of Data: Computer Simulation and “Everyday” Social ScienceEdmund Chattoe-Brown
Although the existence of various forms of complexity in social systems is now widely recognised, this approach to explanation faces two major challenges that turn out to be intimately connected. The first is the existing conflict in social science between “micro” and “macro” styles of social explanation. The second is the relationship of complexity to the kind of data routinely collected in social science. In order to be accepted, complexity approaches need simultaneously to dodge the first conflict while making much better use of existing forms of data.
The first part of the talk will provide an introduction to the simulation approach and a discussion of various concepts in complexity with reference to simulation as a distinctive theory-building tool and methodology. The second part of the talk will develop these ideas in more depth using simulations by the author as case studies.
This document describes a day working as a cabin keeper at Merritt Reservoir. The job involves stocking cleaning supplies like rags, toilet paper, and air freshener, as well as unusual items like mousetraps, a bible, and a hook on a long rod. The ongoing task is hauling a heavy cleaning cart between cabins, which can vary in cleanliness from normal to bizarre situations involving moldy socks. The job continues until a set number of cabins are cleaned each day.
The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationa...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
A seminar given to the Judgement and Decision Making Research Group in the Department of Neuroscience, Psychology and Behaviour, University of Leicester kindly asked me to give a seminar on 25 January 2023 on "The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationality". It discusses the challenges to different research methods of dealing with subjective accounts and models a situation where people can be rational but communicate and have incomplete information about both the number of choices and their payoff. The model is based on this paper: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11299-009-0060-7 One interesting result is that, without coercion or mass media, minority groups may be disadvantaged in their decision making by hegemonic discourse.
Squaring the Circle? Challenges of Reconciling Agent Based Modelling with “Ev...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
The document discusses challenges in reconciling agent-based modeling with social science research. It summarizes an example Schelling model of residential segregation that demonstrates how clusters can form from individual preferences alone, without racism. It then discusses issues with quantitative and qualitative social science research methods and attempts to incorporate existing research findings into a new sketch agent-based model of attitude dynamics over time.
Building Simulations from Expert Knowledge: Understanding Needle Sharing Beha...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
This document summarizes Edmund Chattoe-Brown's talk about using agent-based simulations to model needle sharing behavior among intravenous drug users. The talk discusses how simulations can be a novel and useful research method by systematically incorporating expert knowledge, existing literature, and qualitative data. It then presents a case study where simulations were used to model the spread of blood-borne viruses through needle sharing networks, gaining insights not possible through other methods.
Tapping Into the Wells of Social Energy: A Case Study Based on Falls Identifi...Vincenzo De Florio
Are purely technological solutions the best answer we can get to the shortcomings our organizations are often experiencing today? The results we gathered in this work lead us to giving a negative answer to such question. Science and technology are powerful boosters, though when they are applied to the “local, static organization of an obsolete yesterday” they fail to translate in the solutions we need to our problems. Our stance here is that those boosters should be applied to novel, distributed, and dynamic models able to allow us to escape from the local minima our societies are currently locked in. One such model is simulated in this paper to demonstrate how it may be possible to tap into the vast basins of social energy of our human societies to realize ubiquitous computing sociotechnical services for the identification and timely response to falls.
Accompanying paper available at https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.06655
Integral Spiritual Recovery - Learning to Co-EvolveBrian McConnell
This slide presentation accompanied the recording of a Google Hangout On Air with special guests John Dupuy ("Integral Recovery") and Allie Middleton of Social Presencing Theater as shared on YouTube at: https://youtu.be/VmFyD1ACr9U
The document provides an overview of populations, samples, and key concepts in descriptive statistics. It discusses how samples are used to make inferences about populations. Key points include:
- Samples are subsets of populations used for study due to constraints on time and resources.
- Descriptive statistics like means, medians, and histograms are calculated from samples to learn about characteristics of interest in populations.
- Categorical data can be summarized using frequency distributions and sample proportions.
- Different measures of center like the mean, median, and trimmed mean are used to summarize data, with the choice dependent on factors like outliers and distribution shape.
This document discusses Thomas Schelling's work on residential segregation and emergence in social systems. It explains that Schelling used computational models to show that high levels of residential segregation can emerge even if individual preferences only favor a small majority of neighbors from one's own group. This challenges explanations that assume segregation directly reflects strong individual preferences. The document also discusses how social phenomena can emerge from the interplay of individual actions, in ways not directly intended or predicted by individuals.
This document provides an introduction to social innovation labs and systems change practice. It discusses three key principles of participative, systemic, and creative approaches. The session uses the Grove design project in Chicago as a case study. Participants engage in exercises to explore systems mapping, root causes of issues, and participatory design. The goal is to facilitate understanding of how to enact systemic social change through multi-sector collaboration, addressing underlying structures and mental models, and creative, community-centered solutions.
Towards a social action analysis of organizationsAmir Ghazinoori
This document discusses different models for analyzing organizations, including their strengths and weaknesses. It argues that viewing organizations solely as closed systems or seeing their goals as separate from individuals poses problems. A social action model is proposed that focuses on 1) establishing the ends of different groups within organizations, 2) determining conflicts between these ends, and 3) understanding how ends relate to the social situation, both inside and outside the organization. This provides a paradigm that integrates individuals' goals into the analysis of organizations.
Adolf Benca is a painter and artist based in New York City. He received his MFA from Columbia University and BFA from Cooper Union. Benca has had numerous solo and group exhibitions in galleries across the United States and Europe. His work is in the permanent collections of several major museums and he has received fellowships from the Pollock-Krasner Foundation, Fulbright Program, and New York Foundation for the Arts among others.
1) O documento discute quatro efeitos que modificam a curva C-V básica de um capacitor MOS: a presença de cargas no óxido, a depleção no gate de silício policristalino, a espessura da camada de carga na acumulação e inversão, e efeitos quânticos.
2) A presença de cargas no óxido modifica as tensões de flat-band e threshold, devido ao campo elétrico adicional induzido pelas cargas no óxido.
3) A deple
ITM Power manufactures integrated hydrogen energy systems for energy storage and clean fuel production using proton exchange membrane (PEM) technology. In the past year, ITM Power has achieved commercial progress including reducing electrolyser system costs, launching the first London hydrogen refueling station, and securing grants for hydrogen infrastructure projects. ITM Power is well positioned for continued growth as the market for hydrogen energy solutions increases globally.
El documento habla sobre Internet, sus inicios como una red militar estadounidense, y la evolución hacia su uso mundial. Explica qué son los navegadores web y menciona los principales como Google Chrome, Safari, Internet Explorer, Mozilla Firefox y Opera. Incluye tablas comparando las características de velocidad, seguridad, privacidad y personalización de diferentes navegadores. Concluye que no existe un mejor navegador, sino que cada usuario elige el que más se ajusta a sus necesidades.
ITM Power designs and manufactures hydrogen energy systems for energy storage and clean fuel production. In the year ending April 2011:
- They achieved their first product revenues which were above expectations.
- They received £1.09 million in grants from the UK government and have secured an additional £1.2 million in future grants.
- They are positioned for future growth with unique hydrogen generation technology, an early focus on developing product revenues, and opportunities in rapidly developing hydrogen markets globally.
The Role of Agent Based Modelling in Facilitating Well-being Research: An Int...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
One difficulty with integrating research on wellbeing is that the social sciences are fundamentally divided (both externally and internally) by the methods they use and the theories they endorse. In particular, statisticians and ethnographers cannot establish a common basis for resolving their debate about how much “detail” matters to understanding of social behaviour and thus effectively form non- interacting research communities. This paper presents a novel methodology (Agent Based Modelling, hereafter ABM) for integrating both data and theory in the field of wellbeing research. (In terms of novelty, ABM is not represented, for example, in the Journal of Happiness Studies.) It explains the methodology (which involves expressing social process theories as computer programs rather than equations or narratives), presents a basic synthetic simulation of the processes by which different levels of individual wellbeing may occur (taking some account of economic, social and psychological processes), discusses the significance of the results and their implications and concludes by suggesting how ABM could be used to support the development of an agenda for wellbeing research in a genuinely interdisciplinary way.
As Simple as Possible But No Simpler: Agent-Based Modelling Meets Sociology a...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
This document discusses agent-based modeling and its applications for social science. It begins by introducing the Schelling segregation model, a simple agent-based model that demonstrates how residential segregation can emerge from individual preferences. The document then addresses how agent-based models can formalize theories, synthesize competing theories, and allow experiments not otherwise possible. It provides two case studies on dynamic church membership and the social transmission of choices to illustrate the method. Overall, the document argues that agent-based modeling is a valuable tool for social science that allows integrating data and analyzing theories in a way not possible with other methods.
The Complexity of Data: Computer Simulation and “Everyday” Social ScienceEdmund Chattoe-Brown
Although the existence of various forms of complexity in social systems is now widely recognised, this approach to explanation faces two major challenges that turn out to be intimately connected. The first is the existing conflict in social science between “micro” and “macro” styles of social explanation. The second is the relationship of complexity to the kind of data routinely collected in social science. In order to be accepted, complexity approaches need simultaneously to dodge the first conflict while making much better use of existing forms of data.
The first part of the talk will provide an introduction to the simulation approach and a discussion of various concepts in complexity with reference to simulation as a distinctive theory-building tool and methodology. The second part of the talk will develop these ideas in more depth using simulations by the author as case studies.
This document describes a day working as a cabin keeper at Merritt Reservoir. The job involves stocking cleaning supplies like rags, toilet paper, and air freshener, as well as unusual items like mousetraps, a bible, and a hook on a long rod. The ongoing task is hauling a heavy cleaning cart between cabins, which can vary in cleanliness from normal to bizarre situations involving moldy socks. The job continues until a set number of cabins are cleaned each day.
The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationa...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
A seminar given to the Judgement and Decision Making Research Group in the Department of Neuroscience, Psychology and Behaviour, University of Leicester kindly asked me to give a seminar on 25 January 2023 on "The Role of Agent-Based Modelling in Extending the Concept of Bounded Rationality". It discusses the challenges to different research methods of dealing with subjective accounts and models a situation where people can be rational but communicate and have incomplete information about both the number of choices and their payoff. The model is based on this paper: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11299-009-0060-7 One interesting result is that, without coercion or mass media, minority groups may be disadvantaged in their decision making by hegemonic discourse.
Squaring the Circle? Challenges of Reconciling Agent Based Modelling with “Ev...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
The document discusses challenges in reconciling agent-based modeling with social science research. It summarizes an example Schelling model of residential segregation that demonstrates how clusters can form from individual preferences alone, without racism. It then discusses issues with quantitative and qualitative social science research methods and attempts to incorporate existing research findings into a new sketch agent-based model of attitude dynamics over time.
Building Simulations from Expert Knowledge: Understanding Needle Sharing Beha...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
This document summarizes Edmund Chattoe-Brown's talk about using agent-based simulations to model needle sharing behavior among intravenous drug users. The talk discusses how simulations can be a novel and useful research method by systematically incorporating expert knowledge, existing literature, and qualitative data. It then presents a case study where simulations were used to model the spread of blood-borne viruses through needle sharing networks, gaining insights not possible through other methods.
Tapping Into the Wells of Social Energy: A Case Study Based on Falls Identifi...Vincenzo De Florio
Are purely technological solutions the best answer we can get to the shortcomings our organizations are often experiencing today? The results we gathered in this work lead us to giving a negative answer to such question. Science and technology are powerful boosters, though when they are applied to the “local, static organization of an obsolete yesterday” they fail to translate in the solutions we need to our problems. Our stance here is that those boosters should be applied to novel, distributed, and dynamic models able to allow us to escape from the local minima our societies are currently locked in. One such model is simulated in this paper to demonstrate how it may be possible to tap into the vast basins of social energy of our human societies to realize ubiquitous computing sociotechnical services for the identification and timely response to falls.
Accompanying paper available at https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.06655
Integral Spiritual Recovery - Learning to Co-EvolveBrian McConnell
This slide presentation accompanied the recording of a Google Hangout On Air with special guests John Dupuy ("Integral Recovery") and Allie Middleton of Social Presencing Theater as shared on YouTube at: https://youtu.be/VmFyD1ACr9U
The document provides an overview of populations, samples, and key concepts in descriptive statistics. It discusses how samples are used to make inferences about populations. Key points include:
- Samples are subsets of populations used for study due to constraints on time and resources.
- Descriptive statistics like means, medians, and histograms are calculated from samples to learn about characteristics of interest in populations.
- Categorical data can be summarized using frequency distributions and sample proportions.
- Different measures of center like the mean, median, and trimmed mean are used to summarize data, with the choice dependent on factors like outliers and distribution shape.
This document discusses Thomas Schelling's work on residential segregation and emergence in social systems. It explains that Schelling used computational models to show that high levels of residential segregation can emerge even if individual preferences only favor a small majority of neighbors from one's own group. This challenges explanations that assume segregation directly reflects strong individual preferences. The document also discusses how social phenomena can emerge from the interplay of individual actions, in ways not directly intended or predicted by individuals.
This document provides an introduction to social innovation labs and systems change practice. It discusses three key principles of participative, systemic, and creative approaches. The session uses the Grove design project in Chicago as a case study. Participants engage in exercises to explore systems mapping, root causes of issues, and participatory design. The goal is to facilitate understanding of how to enact systemic social change through multi-sector collaboration, addressing underlying structures and mental models, and creative, community-centered solutions.
Towards a social action analysis of organizationsAmir Ghazinoori
This document discusses different models for analyzing organizations, including their strengths and weaknesses. It argues that viewing organizations solely as closed systems or seeing their goals as separate from individuals poses problems. A social action model is proposed that focuses on 1) establishing the ends of different groups within organizations, 2) determining conflicts between these ends, and 3) understanding how ends relate to the social situation, both inside and outside the organization. This provides a paradigm that integrates individuals' goals into the analysis of organizations.
The document discusses key concepts in systems thinking including feedback loops, emergence, and open and closed systems perspectives. It provides examples of how these concepts can be applied to understand business organizations, describing an organization as a complex system with interacting parts that is more than the sum of its components. The behavior of an organization cannot always be predicted and is influenced by its environment through information and resource exchanges.
Emergent Behavior and SCM Introduction In this exercise, the .docxSALU18
Emergent Behavior and SCM
Introduction:
In this exercise, the student will analyze emergent behavior as it applies to SCM.
Tasks:
Read "Executive Insight in Hugos": Essentials of Supply Chain Management, answer the following questions:
• Explain how negative feedback improves the performance of a supply chain.
• Describe the steps that managers can take to encourage positive emergent behavior in their supply chains.
• Why is emergent behavior important to continued success?
2-3 pages. APA citations.
Emergent behavior is what happens when an interconnected system of relatively simple elements begins to self-organize to form a more intelligent and more adaptive higher-level system. Steven Johnson in his book, Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software, explores the conditions that bring about this phenomenon.
In an interview with Steven Johnson I posed six questions and asked him to share his insights on a range of topics. These topics range from what gives a system emergent characteristics to how could companies organize their supply chains so as to encourage and benefit from emergent behavior.
· What is an “emergent system”? How is an emergent system different from an assembly line? The catchphrase that I sometimes use is that an emergent system is “smarter” than the sum of its parts. They tend to be systems made up of many interacting agents, each of which is following relatively simple rules governing its encounters with other agents. Somehow, out of all these local interactions, a higher-level, global intelligence “emerges.” The extraordinary thing about these systems is that there's no master planner or executive branch—the overall group creates the intelligence and adaptability; it's not something passed down from the leadership. An ant colony is a great example of this: colonies manage to pull off extraordinary feats of resource management and engineering and task allocation, all by following remarkably simple rules of interaction, using a simple chemical language to communicate. There's a queen ant in the colony, but she's only called that because she's the chief reproductive engine for the colony—she doesn't have any actually command authority. The ordinary ants just do the thinking collectively, without a leader. A key difference between an emergent system and an assembly line lies in the fluidity of the emergent system: randomness is a key component of the way an ant colony will explore a given environment—take the random element out, and the colony gets much less interesting, much less capable of stumbling across new ideas. Assembly lines are all about setting fixed patterns, and eliminating randomness; emergence is all about stumbling across new patterns that work better than the old ones.
· You say that such systems are “bottom up systems, not top-down.” These systems solve problems by drawing on masses of simple elements instead of relying on a single, intelligent “executive branch.” What ...
50Pcs Waterproof A4 Self Adhesive Glossy Paper Sticker For Photographic ...Sue Ganguli
The document provides instructions for creating an account and submitting assignment requests on the HelpWriting.net website. It outlines a 5-step process: 1) Create an account with an email and password. 2) Complete a form with assignment details. 3) Review bids from writers and select one. 4) Review the completed paper and authorize payment. 5) Request revisions until satisfied with the work. The site promises original, high-quality content and refunds for plagiarized work.
The document discusses how social networks and individual attitudes influence each other through two related processes: social contagion and homophily. Social contagion refers to the diffusion of attributes through a social network based on its structure, while homophily refers to the formation of social networks based on shared attributes among individuals. The document outlines Friedkin's model of social influence, which models how individuals' opinions are shaped both by their own characteristics and by interpersonal influences within their social network over multiple time periods.
This document contains the agenda and notes from a tutorial on the TU812 module "Managing Systemic Change."
1. The tutors briefly introduce themselves and go over the agenda, which includes discussing what they do when undertaking various activities, taking a "design turn" in practice, and thoughts from Vickers and Churchman.
2. They discuss reflecting recursively on explanations to explore meanings and contexts. An exercise has students reflect on what they do when studying the module.
3. Taking a "design turn" means practicing creatively and sensitively according to purposes and contexts, like not juggling flames in an enclosed space. Systemic inquiries can be understood as learning systems designed for a purpose.
ICPSR - Complex Systems Models in the Social Sciences - Lecture 8 and 9 - Pro...Daniel Katz
This document discusses various modeling frameworks for complex systems in the social sciences, including:
1. Game theoretic models which currently dominate but have limitations like multiple equilibria.
2. Agent-based and complexity models where agents follow simple rules and macro patterns emerge. Examples include flocking models.
3. Conceptual building blocks of models like search and exploration, emergence and self-organization, feedback loops, diffusion, networks, and dependency.
4. Specific diffusion models like SIR from epidemiology are discussed as ways to model the spread of ideas or behaviors.
The document emphasizes that combining different modeling frameworks in ensembles may be needed to capture real-world complexity.
Similar to What is simulation and what use is it? (20)
Between Numbers and Narratives: Agent-Based Simulation as a “Third Way” of Do...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
An introduction to Agent-Based Modelling, its methodology and uses (with particular reference to qualitative and quantitative data) for the "Intrepid Researcher" Seminar series at the University of Leicester.
Agent-Based Modelling: Social Science Meets Computer Science?Edmund Chattoe-Brown
Chattoe-Brown, Edmund (2017?) ‘Agent-Based Modelling: Social Science Meets Computer Science?’ presentation at Departmental Seminar, Department of Informatics, University of Leicester, 17 February.
A presentation at the Open University, Milton Keynes, 2003. The paper presents three different examples of simulation: An agent-based model of adaptive behaviour in oligopoly, a learning model of consumption and lifestyle and a preliminary attempt to model social mobility processes.
Accepting Government Payment for New Agri-Environmental Practices: A Simulati...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
Paper presented at the XVIII Congress of the European Society of Rural Sociology: How to be Rural in Late Modernity - Process, Project and Discourse, Lund, Sweden, 24-28 August.
Evolutionary analogies are often accused of a lack of realism with respect to real social phenomena. However, in particular circumstances, the analogy may be particularly pertinent. This paper presents a simulation in which successful forms of industrial organisation are literally able to reproduce themselves through the franchising process.
Agent-Based Modelling and Microsimulation: Ne’er the Twain Shall Meet? Edmund Chattoe-Brown
This presentation considers the differences in approach between ABM and microsimulation and considers the extent to which the two approaches might be reconciled.
The Past, Present and Future of ABM: How To Cope With A New Research Method Edmund Chattoe-Brown
This talk considers the challenges of developing a "canon" for ABM based on research (some of which has been forgotten), the present problem situation of many non comparable models and a possible future based on greater interdisciplinary and more systematic development of methodology.
This document summarizes an academic paper that presents a basic simulation model of information diffusion. The paper aims to synthesize relevant literature on innovation diffusion, complement existing farm decision models, and provoke suggestions for further development. It describes traditional diffusion curve models, micromodeling approaches, spatial models using cellular automata, and network models. The simulation defines agents with attributes like associates, location, adoption tendencies, and defines how messages are passed. Results show that factors like needing repeated messages, sparse social networks, change agents, and agent boredom significantly impact adoption rates, while other factors like initial adopters or positive/negative messages have little effect. Spatial correlation impacts the adoption pattern but not final levels.
Accepting Government Payment for New Agri-Environmental Practices: A Simulati...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
paper presented at the XVIII Congress of the European Society of Rural Sociology: How to be Rural in Late Modernity - Process, Project and Discourse, Lund, Sweden, 24-28 August, 1999. Co-authored with Nigel Gilbert.
This document discusses computer simulation in economics and social science. It outlines the ideology of simulation using heterogeneous agents situated within complex, dynamic environments. It presents the agent-based approach as an alternative to aggregate models. Several case studies are described, including pricing under oligopoly, lifestyle emergence among pensioners, and social mobility. The document argues that simulation is a useful tool that can inspire new theories, integrate research, and help address issues around micro-macro links.
Modelling Self-Organisation of Oligopolistic Markets Using Genetic ProgrammingEdmund Chattoe-Brown
This document discusses using genetic programming to model self-organization in oligopolistic markets. It describes replicating previous work showing the evolution of cost-plus pricing and price following. The model is then modified to explore how salience and expectations can lead to coordination. Specifically, adding expectation terminals provides a mechanism for tacit collusion where firms trail prices without changing sharply, leading to stable and sustainable market shares. Overall, genetic programming is proposed as a useful tool for modeling adaptive behavior and self-organization in economic systems.
The Social Transmission of Choice: An Exploratory Computer Simulation with Ap...Edmund Chattoe-Brown
Paper presented at the British Sociological Association Annual Conference (Social Connections: Identities, Technologies, Relationships), University of East London, 12-14 April.
This document summarizes a lecture on research methods in sociology. It discusses experiments using the ultimatum game, collecting social network data from students, and using agent-based modeling to simulate phenomena like residential segregation. It encourages thinking about how to address the limitations of surveys and interviews when studying topics like rumors. The document provides instructions for an in-class experiment and encourages students to ask questions about their research proposal assignments or feedback.
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1. What is simulation and what
use is it?
Edmund Chattoe
Department of Sociology
University of Oxford
Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
edmund.chattoe@sociology.ox.ac.uk
http://www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/people/chattoe.html
2. Plan of the talk
• Clearing the ground
• Types of theorising
• A simple example with methodological
implications
• A more realistic example and contribution
to “live” sociological debates
• Styles of simulation: A brief comparison
• Conclusions
3. Simulation: A confusing term
• Gaming or role playing: “Simulated” United Nations
for schools
• Instrumental and descriptive simulation: Dealing with
messy calculus (Buffon)
• A realist/empiricist approach to social theory:
Nothing to do with Baudrillard, PoMo and simulacra
• A third type of representation for social processes:
neither a “mathematical” model, nor a narrative but a
computer programme
• Simulation types: agent based, system dynamics
4. Mathematical theory: Lotka-Volterra
• Let us assume that the prey in our model are rabbits and
that the predators are foxes. If we let R(t) and F(t)
represent the number of rabbits and foxes, respectively,
that are alive at time t, then the Lotka-Volterra model is:
• dR/dt = a*R - b*R*F
• dF/dt = e*b*R*F - c*F
• a is the natural growth rate of rabbits absent predation
• c is the natural death rate of foxes absent food (rabbits)
• b is the death rate per encounter of rabbits due to
predation
• e is the efficiency of turning predated rabbits into foxes
5. Narrative theory: Marx
• But with the development of industry, the proletariat not only increases
in number; it becomes concentrated in greater masses, its strength grows,
and it feels that strength more. The various interests and conditions of
life within the ranks of the proletariat are more and more equalised, in
proportion as machinery obliterates all distinctions of labour, and nearly
everywhere reduces wages to the same low level. The growing
competition among the bourgeois, and the resulting commercial crises,
make the wages of the workers ever more fluctuating. The increasing
improvement of machinery, ever more rapidly developing, makes their
livelihood more and more precarious; the collisions between individual
workmen and individual bourgeois take more and more the character of
collisions between two classes. Thereupon, the workers begin to form
combinations (trade unions) against the bourgeois; they club together in
order to keep up the rate of wages; they found permanent associations in
order to make provision beforehand for these occasional revolts. Here
and there, the contest breaks out into riots. (Communist Manifesto)
6. Simulated theory: Schelling example
• Three state regular grid (red agent, green agent or
vacant site)
• Red and green agents have two psychological
states (“satisfied” and “dis-satisfied”) based on an
innate and fixed “preference” for sharing the type
of their immediate neighbours
• If agent is satisfied, it stays still. If dis-satisfied,
it moves to a randomly selected vacant site
• Randomly ordered updating for whole agent
population determines each simulated “period”
8. Two questions
• How xenophobic do agents have to be to
produce segregation? (A percentage for the
same neighbour requirement at or above
which recognisable clustering results.)
• How does the type of clustering change for
total xenophobia? (100% same neighbour
requirement.)
• DON’T SPOIL IT IF YOU ALREADY
KNOW THE ANSWERS!
10. Type B "Error": Xenophobic Non Clusters
50.4% similar:
stopped after 50
periods
11. Simulated theory: Schelling again• to find-new-spot
• rt random 360
• fd random 10
• if any other-turtles-here
• [ find-new-spot ] ;; keep going until we find an unoccupied patch
• end
• to update-patches
• ask patches [
• ;; in next two lines, we use "neighbors" to test the eight patches surrounding the current patch
• set reds-nearby count neighbors with [any turtles-here with [color = red]]
• set greens-nearby count neighbors with [any turtles-here with [color = green]]
• set total-nearby reds-nearby + greens-nearby ]
• end
• to update-turtles
• ask turtles [
• if color = red
• [ set happy? reds-nearby >= ( %-similar-wanted * total-nearby / 100 ) ]
• if color = green
• [ set happy? greens-nearby >= ( %-similar-wanted * total-nearby / 100 ) ] ]
• end
12. First two uses of simulation
• Simulation as “complexoscope”: Just as a microscope
allows us to see things too small for the naked eye, a
simulation allow us to understand things too complex for
the “bare” brain. As the Schelling model shows, even quite
simple systems are complex.
• Simulation as theory building tool: Even the simple
Schelling model captures and solidifies the potentially
abstruse notion of structuration. (A simulation is worth a
thousand words?) In choosing, agents determine the
“environment” which then influences their choice: “white
flight”, tipping points.
13. Simulation and data: A distinctive relationship
• What would we need to do to make the
Schelling model more realistic?
• First: How do people classify neighbours
and make consequent relocation decisions?
• Second: How “similar” are the clusters
produced by the simulation model and those
observed in real urban settings?
• A combination of “traditional” qualitative
and quantitative data (plus novel methods?)
18. Revisiting types of theory
• Statistical models (found in quantitative research) make
the comparison between model and real system at the
“aggregate” level but seldom specify an explicit micro
mechanism generating the observed pattern. To my
knowledge, no such mechanism has been independently
tested even where proposed.
• Narrative theories (found in ethnography and “pure” social
theory) describe individual states and interactions but
ethnography seldom even attempts to generalise nowadays
and simulations of social theories often don’t generate the
outcomes hypothesised (Friedman example) because of
complexity. Formalising theories is another interesting (if
minority) use for simulation.
19. Case study: The strength of strict churches
• Begins with Kelley and a potentially
counter-intuitive claim: The way to
maintain a church is to ask more from
adherents not less
• Statistical debate about whether this is
true.
• Problems with causality, contributions that
are hard to measure (differential
association) and explanation
• Iannacconne RCT model of strict churches
20. The Iannaccone explanation
• Worshippers face a time/money allocation
problem between secular and religious activities
• Religion is a club good
• This creates a free-rider problem
• One solution is prohibiting secular activities
• This often creates an enforcement problem
• A solution is to effectively raise costs of
prohibited activities using apparently “irrational”
practices (dietary restrictions, dress codes)
21. Unpacking this argument
• Although intended as a RCT account of
worshippers, this is also an interesting
functionalist account of church dynamics
• Churches that demand, prohibit and enforce
simultaneously will thrive, others will not
(based on income/membership constraints)
• Iannaccone proves an equilibrium result
assuming unbounded rationality and perfect
information
22. Building a simulation
• Objection 1: Agents cannot choose over whole
space of allocations so have them compare only
pairs of allocations at any instant.
• Objection 2: There is social structure not global
knowledge. Comparators come (differentially)
from self (choice), deliberate recruitment to new
churches, own church members (social imitation)
or other church members (social learning)
• Objection 3: The population of churches is
dynamic with new creeds being born and
churches with no members or income “dying”.
23. Figure 1. The Effect of Strictness on Church Survival
( N=12 2 aggregat ed from 4 simulat ion runs)
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Church Lifet ime ( Simulat ed Periods)
24. Figure 2. The Trend Effect on Church Survival of Religious
Pract ices Raising t he Effect ive Cost s of Proscribed
Secular Act ivit ies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Fact or by which Pract ices Raised Effect ive Cost s
0 Proscript ions
1 Proscript ions
2 Proscript ions
3 Proscript ions
4 Proscript ions
25. Figure 3. Membership Hist ory ( 5 Randomly Selected
Simulat ed Churches)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Church Age ( Simulat ed Periods)
Church 1
Church 2
Church 3
Church 4
Church 5
26. Interesting implications
• Under “more realistic” assumptions the Iannaccone
result breaks down.
• What kind of data do we need to build better
simulations? Meta-analysis of existing
ethnography, theory driven comparative studies of
successful and unsuccessful churches, different
styles of “quantitative” data (contact diaries?)
• Can we use falsification based on more than one
“dimension” of data: longitudinal church
membership as well as cross sectional?
• Is functionalism coherent after all?
27. Types of simulation
• Instrumental: Numerical integration,
probability distributions for hard functions
• Microsimulation, system dynamics: Based
on assumptions of underlying stability in
“transition probabilities”
• Agent based simulation: Grounds out all
behaviour at the individual level. The only
“parameters” are those used by agents
themselves in their mental models.
28. Example: Trends in drug use (Caulkins)
LIGHT
USERS
HEAVY
USERS
NON
USERS
a g
b
L(t+1)=(1-a-b)L(t)+I(t), H(t+1)=(1-g)H(t)+bL(t)
Initiation
29. Issues
• Presumed constancy of a, b, g, category
boundaries of use.
• Non explanation of I(t).
• If model design criterion is curve fitting, is
this explanation or data mining? (Should
there be a distinctive box for “never used”
and if so, where do we stop with building
boxes based on something other than best
fit?)
30. DrugChat Model
• DTI Foresight Replication of DrugTalk
(Agar)
• Explicit (but simple) representation of agent
social networks
• Different types distinguished by behaviour
(“partying”) and evaluation (credibility of
reported drug attitudes) rather than use level
• No parameter constancy assumptions just
attributes and states at agent level
31. Figure 2 . Correlat ion bet ween Risk Attit ude and Final
Drug Use Stat us ( Whole Population)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Init ial Risk At t it ude ( 0 -1 0 0 )
32. Figure 3. Flow Rat es Between Drug User Statuses (Whole
Populat ion)
-0 .01 5
-0 .0 1
-0 .00 5
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
T im e
Non User t o User
User t o Addict
33. Simulation and data
• Having a new method calls attention to the
need for new data/theory (Maslow):
dynamic decision mechanisms,
unstructured choices, large scale network
structure, generic network properties
• It also shapes the collection and use of data
(comparative statistics and qualitative
similarity measures rather than model fit,
“theory building” ethnography, systematic
analysis of published research)
34. Institutional issues
• Protective expectations: “Substantiveness”,
“rigour” and other exclusionary codes.
• Size of simulator population: Quality as a
function of investment.
• Length of existence of field: How to tell
exuberance from sloppiness?
• Lack of infrastructure: professional training,
journals, conferences and so on
• Raising standards internally (replication, data
protocols, systematic literature review)
• The high frontier?
35. Conclusions
• Simulation as complexoscope: No social reality
needed
• Simulation as theory exploration tool: Need only
a stated theory and wise intuitions (Iannaccone)
• Simulation as both “generative” and “falsifiable”
social science: Need real micro and macro data
(Schelling)
• Simulation as a tool for “detheorising” theory
(removing parameters and implicit assumptions)
and developing interdisciplinary programmes of
progressive research: Watch this space, I hope!
36. Now read on
• Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
(JASSS): http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS.html
• NetLogo: http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/
• Gilbert, Nigel and Troitzsch, Klaus G. (2005) Simulation
for the Social Scientist (Open University Press).
• BJS: ‘Using Simulation to Develop and Test Functionalist
Explanations: A Case Study of Dynamic Church
Membership’, http://users.ox.ac.uk/~econec/bjs-1.doc
• DTI:
<http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Brain_Science_Addiction_a
nd_Drugs/Reports_and_Publications/DrugsFutures2025/In
dex.htm>