Abstract
This case study intends to investigate the role of the Portuguese banking industry in the
great economic crisis that Portugal is currently experiencing. The evidence shows the
existence of a Portuguese banking crisis starting in 2008, and preceding the great
economic crisis, marked by the Portuguese bailout program, initiated in April 2011.
It is suggested that the Portuguese banking crisis may be related with the behavior of the
Portuguese banking industry upon Portugal has joined the Euro Currency, which
eliminated the exchange rate risk within the Euro Area. Though, the credit and liquidity
risks were not completely vanished. In fact, the evidence seems to indicate that upon
joining the Euro, the Portuguese banks started a process of intensive borrowing from
foreign financial institutions, reaching total outstanding liabilities of 82,0% over the
Portuguese nominal GDP, in 2007. This has contributed to a capital flow bonanza,
pumping liquidity into the local economy, and thus sustaining both lending and credit-
driven consumption booms. After the boom, Portugal entered a bust phase, in line with
the published literature and originating a banking and economic crisis. Both crises were
amplified due to the European sovereign debts and the Portuguese bailout program.
Using published indicators referred to study banking crises in other countries, a
Portuguese banking crisis is identified, marked by four episodes. Namely, 1) two bank
runs and a Government takeover of one of the banks in 2008; 2) the bankruptcy of the
other bank in 2010; 3) Government guarantees of approximately 6,9% of the nominal
GDP to the major Portuguese banks, in 2011; and 4) Government recapitalization costs
of approximately 4,0% of the nominal GDP to the major Portuguese banks, in 2012.
During this time period, the Portuguese government increased the level of its sovereign
debt, and has requested for the bailout assistance from Troika, in April 2011.
Keywords: Portuguese banking crisis, financial crisis, boom-bust cycle, capital flow
bonanza, banks, banking performance

Master's Thesis Abstract

  • 1.
    Abstract This case studyintends to investigate the role of the Portuguese banking industry in the great economic crisis that Portugal is currently experiencing. The evidence shows the existence of a Portuguese banking crisis starting in 2008, and preceding the great economic crisis, marked by the Portuguese bailout program, initiated in April 2011. It is suggested that the Portuguese banking crisis may be related with the behavior of the Portuguese banking industry upon Portugal has joined the Euro Currency, which eliminated the exchange rate risk within the Euro Area. Though, the credit and liquidity risks were not completely vanished. In fact, the evidence seems to indicate that upon joining the Euro, the Portuguese banks started a process of intensive borrowing from foreign financial institutions, reaching total outstanding liabilities of 82,0% over the Portuguese nominal GDP, in 2007. This has contributed to a capital flow bonanza, pumping liquidity into the local economy, and thus sustaining both lending and credit- driven consumption booms. After the boom, Portugal entered a bust phase, in line with the published literature and originating a banking and economic crisis. Both crises were amplified due to the European sovereign debts and the Portuguese bailout program. Using published indicators referred to study banking crises in other countries, a Portuguese banking crisis is identified, marked by four episodes. Namely, 1) two bank runs and a Government takeover of one of the banks in 2008; 2) the bankruptcy of the other bank in 2010; 3) Government guarantees of approximately 6,9% of the nominal GDP to the major Portuguese banks, in 2011; and 4) Government recapitalization costs of approximately 4,0% of the nominal GDP to the major Portuguese banks, in 2012. During this time period, the Portuguese government increased the level of its sovereign debt, and has requested for the bailout assistance from Troika, in April 2011. Keywords: Portuguese banking crisis, financial crisis, boom-bust cycle, capital flow bonanza, banks, banking performance