A moral document at a turning point

1. Maryland’s Budget
Benjamin Orr
UMD School of Social Work
Baltimore, MD
March 27, 2017
@mdeconomy
A moral document at a turning point

2. All MDers should be able
to achieve their full
potential in a healthy
economy that offers a
widely shared, rising
standard of living

3. What do we value as a state?
Where do we invest our money?

4. $43.5 Billion Operating Budget
Proposed FY 2018
Health
$14.1
Education
$8.0
Higher Education
$6.4
Transportation
$5.2
Human
Services
$3.0
Public Safety
$2.2
Other
$1.7
Public Debt
$1.3
Natural Resources
$1.0
Legislative, Judicial,
Legal
$0.8$ in billions

5. $4.5 Billion Capital Budget
State Facilities
$118.0
Health/Social
$58.4
Environment
$799.8
Public Safety
$7.5
Education
$371.5
Higher Education
$384.8
Housing/Economic
Development
$131.5
Local Projects (Administration)
$19.5
Proposed FY 2018
$ in millions
Transportation
=
$2.7 billion
Remaining $1.8 billion =

6. Debt Affordability Criteria
 Balancing act between needs and ability to pay (also bond ratings)
 Borrowing caps on state debt (driven by GO bonds)
• All debt service: 8% of State revenues
• All debt outstanding: 4% of State personal income
 Legislators recommended: $1,065 million GO bonds
• 1% growth over FY 2017
 Governor’s proposal: $995 million GO bonds (zero growth)
http://www.treasurer.state.md.us/media/95474/2016_cdac_report.pdf
http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/Pubs/BudgetFiscal/2016-spending-affordability-interim-report.pdf
Fiscal Year 2018

7. Debt Affordability Criteria
 Balancing act between needs and ability to pay (also bond ratings)
 Borrowing caps on state debt (driven by GO bonds)
• All debt service: 8% of State revenues (7.8% proposed)
• All debt outstanding: 4% of State personal income (3.6% proposed)
 Legislators recommended: $1,065 million GO bonds
• 1% growth over FY 2017
 Governor’s proposal: $995 million GO bonds (zero growth)
http://www.treasurer.state.md.us/media/95474/2016_cdac_report.pdf
http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/Pubs/BudgetFiscal/2016-spending-affordability-interim-report.pdf
Fiscal Year 2018

8. How do we pay for these investments?
And who pays?

9. $43 Billion Operating Budget
Proposed FY 2018
General Funds
$17.1
Special Funds
$9.1
Federal Funds
$13.0
Higher
Education
Funds
$4.4
$ in billions
General Fund
Revenue Sources
FY 18
Projection
Individual Income Tax $9,406 million
Sales & Use Tax $4,727 million
Corporate Income Tax $830 million
Other Business Taxes $532 million
State Lottery $505 million
Tobacco & Alcohol Taxes $426 million
Estate & Inheritance Taxes $185 million
Court revenue $107 million
Other revenues $420 million
At least $400
million at risk in
President Trump’s
budget

10. 9.7% 9.5% 10.3%
9.7%
8.5% 8.8%
6.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Lowest
20%
Second
20%
Middle
20%
Fourth 20% Next 15% Next 4% Top 1%
Low income MDers pay greater share of income in
state/local taxes
Shares of family income for taxpayers under 65
Who Pays? A Distributional Analysis of the Tax System in All 50 States. (2015). Institute on Taxation and Economic
Policy. See: http://www.itep.org/whopays/full_report.php
<$24,000 >$481,000$44k-$67k $111k-$211k

11. Maryland Has Room to Raise More Revenue
1 “State and Local Tax Revenue as a Share of Personal Income,” Tax Policy Center, 2016,
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-tax-revenue-percentage-personal-income.
U.S. Average
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
NewYork
Wyoming
DistrictofColumbia
Massachusetts
NewMexico
Hawaii
Michigan
Montana
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Oregon
Maine
Vermont
RhodeIsland
Utah
Louisiana
WestVirginia
Illinois
Iowa
Delaware
California
Pennsylvania
NewJersey
NorthDakota
Maryland
Arizona
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Mississippi
SouthDakota
Georgia
Kansas
Kentucky
SouthCarolina
Connecticut
NorthCarolina
Alabama
Washington
Idaho
Texas
Colorado
Nevada
Ohio
Indiana
Tennessee
Virginia
Arkansas
Missouri
Florida
NewHampshire
StateandLocalTaxesasaShareofPersonalIncome,2014
Source: Tax Policy Center 2016. Note: Alaska is omitted because its tax system has limited comparability to other states. State
and local taxes in Alaska are 36 percent of the state's personal income due to high severance tax revenues.

12. MDers of color more likely to pay a
greater share of their income in taxes
Maryland Center on Economic Policy. Maryland’s Poor Taxed More Than Rich; Communities
of Color Feel Biggest Pinch. March 2015.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Poorest20%
≤$24,000
Second20%
$24,000-$44,000
Middle 20%
$44,000-$67,000
Fourth 20%
$67,000-$111,000
Richest 20%
≥$111,000
White alone Non whites Excluding Asians

13. Female-headed HH more likely to pay
greater share of their income in taxes
Maryland Center on Economic Policy.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Poorest20%
≤$24,000
Second 20%
$24,000-$44,000
Middle 20%
$44,000-$67,000
Fourth 20%
$67,000-$111,000
Richest 20%
≥$111,000
Total Male-Headed Households Total Female-Headed Households

14. Business taxes are a smaller share of
MD’s economy than in other states
Ernst & Young, FY14 COST report on state and local taxes
4.6%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
ND
AL
VT
WY
NM
MI
HI
ME
WV
NY
MT
MV
WA
RI
FL
NJ
IL
AZ
SC
TX
DC
KS
KY
OK
MN
SK
USA
ID
IA
PA
WI
AL
CA
DE
AK
CO
NB
TN
MA
NH
OH
LA
GA
MD
UT
VA
IN
MI
MO
NC
CT
OR
MD business gets a $1 return for every 70
cents invested in state and local taxes

15. Why MD Needs More Revenue
 Still recovering from Great Recession
• Returning jobs are lower-quality
• Still have fifth highest foreclosure rate
 Lots of unmet needs across state
• $2.6 billion investment needed in K-12 education
• 19,000 students on waitlist for state need-based financial aid
• We only support 61% of the Maryland Minimum Living Level
 Revenues growing slower than mandated costs
 Direct and indirect federal cuts
 Debt service costs rising

16. Potential Resources for Investment
 Eliminate corporate “nowhere income”, level the
playing field for local business: $53 to $69 million
 Stop cutting the multi-millionaire estate tax: $17
million in fiscal year 2019, increasing to $60 million in
fiscal year 2022
 Close the carried interest loophole benefiting hedge
fund managers: $50 million
 Modernize the sales tax: $320 million
 Tax marijuana like alcohol: $200 million
http://www.mdeconomy.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Revenue-options-brief.pdf
Annual Revenue Estimates

17. How can Marylanders
influence the state’s budget?

18. Agencies develop
recommendations
• Governor
provides
guidance to
agencies
• Summer-Fall
DBM drafts
budget
• Incorporates
agency feedback,
governor
priorities
• Through early
January
Spending
Affordability
Committee
• Joint legislative
committee
• Makes
recommendation
on how much
budget,
workforce
should grow
• November -
December
Governor
introduces
budget
• Mid-January
• DLS fiscal
briefing Monday
after budget
introduced
Legislature
holds
hearings
• January to April
• Chambers take
turns originating
Budget
passed
• Deadline is one
week before Sine
Die
• Budget does not
require
governor’s
signature
Agencies
implement
budget
• Start work on
next budget
Budget Lifecycle
Fiscal year starts July 1st
BRE stands for Board of Revenue Estimates Sine Die is the name for the last day of session
DBM stands for Department of Budget and Management
DLS stands for Department of Legislative Services
September
BRE
estimates
March
BRE
estimates
Governor can cut up
to 25% of individual
line items through
Board of Public
Works
December
BRE
estimates

19. How Much State Spending is Discretionary?
FY 15 Mandated Appropriations In The Maryland State Budget Exhibit 1

20. Threats from Washington

21. Massive Threats on the Horizon
 Repealing the Affordable Care Act (including Medicaid expansion)
• Half a million Marylanders would lose health insurance
• $1.4 Billion budget hole ($14 billion over 10 years)
 Ending the safety net as we know it, esp. SNAP & Medicaid
 Deep budget cuts to other programs that help struggling people
 Major tax cuts for the wealthy, including corporations, that would
force deeper cuts

22. It all comes down to non-defense discretionary
spending (NDD)
 NDD spending already at historically low levels
 Already scheduled to get hit even harder by the return of the
sequester
 Republicans have talked about undoing the sequester for
defense spending but leaving it – or even deepening it – for
NDD spending
 Huge consequences for states (receive 25% of NDD)

23. NDD Spending Falling to Historic Lows as
Percentage of GDP

24. Massive tax cuts for the wealthy…
http://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/house-gop-a-better-way-tax-cuts-would-overwhelmingly-benefit-top-1-percent
http://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/revised-trump-tax-plan-heavily-tilted-toward-wealthiest-tax-policy-center

25. … Which means
even less funding
for human needs
programs

26. Reconciliation = Key Vehicle
Only need 51
votes in Senate

27. Tentative Timeline
March &
April
• First reconciliation bill (ACA repeal) potentially passes
• FY2018 budget resolution – likely with big tax and
budget cuts – will receive a vote, setting up a second
reconciliation bill
Summer
• FY2018 reconciliation bill – potentially with damaging
cuts to taxes and services – could pass as early as
Memorial Day

28. Threats from Washington: Solutions?
 Protect structure of the safety net (vital)
 Increase the NDD funding caps (unlikely)
• Democrats may have a little leverage because appropriations bills require 60 votes in
the Senate
• Republicans most interested in increasing DEFENSE spending, which would put even
more pressure on NDD spending if they continue deficit reduction
• President Trump also said during the campaign that he would pay for his massive tax
cuts by cutting more from NDD spending
 MD must get creative to make up the difference, ask all to pay their fair
share to protect building blocks of modern economy

29. Bottom line:
Will Maryland and the
federal government
continue to invest in
the pillars of our
modern economy, or
will we make cuts to
education, healthcare,
and public safety?

30. www.mdeconomy.org
@mdeconomy