This document provides a summary of key macroeconomic factors that impact economic analysis, including GDP, interest rates, inflation, balance of payments, exchange rates, and more. It outlines how each factor is measured and its potential impact on other economic indicators and the stock market. Frequency of data releases for several countries is also shown for some factors. The document aims to explain the macroeconomic environment and relationships between different macro factors.
The document summarizes the current state of the Canadian and Toronto real estate markets. It finds that while economic growth has slowed, job growth continues in Toronto. Interest rates have risen but are expected to increase only modestly in the future. Housing sales have declined from record highs but are forecast to rebound. Condo apartment sales and prices closely follow overall trends, with increased supply a potential risk to future price appreciation. Affordability remains sound, suggesting current price levels are justified.
The document outlines goals and a financial analysis for a project called Shakti. It aims to increase the number of entrepreneurs involved to 25,000 by 2006 and 100,000 by 2010. It also wants to increase consumers to 100 million by 2006 and 350 million by 2010. The financial analysis shows declining profits from 2003-2004. The document then discusses strategies to boost sales in rural areas by expanding multi-level marketing and providing microcredits. It also outlines actions to increase both entrepreneurs and customers in order to contribute more to total company revenues.
North Carolina's economy and tax revenues have been declining in recent decades. While the state was once a top performer in job and income growth, it now lags behind national averages. The tax base has narrowed as consumption patterns have changed, yet tax rates have increased to compensate. This unstable structure leaves the state vulnerable to budget shortfalls during recessions. To promote long-term economic growth and fiscal stability, tax reform is needed to develop a simpler, more competitive system that broadens the base and ensures a steady revenue stream.
The document provides information on various stock exchanges in India, including the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), National Stock Exchange (NSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), Over the Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI), and the United Stock Exchange (USE). It discusses the history, operations, products, technology and trading volumes of these major Indian stock exchanges.
The document discusses principles of tax reform and evaluates different tax policies based on their efficiency, simplicity, equity and impact on the distribution of the tax burden. It provides data on the federal budget and revenues over time. Distribution tables are presented showing what percentage of the tax burden is paid by different income groups under current tax laws and how some proposed tax reforms could shift that distribution.
- Most global equity indices eased during the week except the DAX and FTSE 100. The NASDAQ fell the most at 4.5% driven by declines in technology stocks.
- In Kenya, the NASI and NSE 20 rose by 3.2% and 0.9% respectively led by a 5.1% gain in Safaricom's share price. Equity turnover increased by 179.2%.
- Treasury bill yields rose marginally by 0.05-0.08% with the 91-day bill seeing the highest subscription rate of 141.33%. The Kenya shilling appreciated against major currencies.
The document outlines a business plan for a restaurant serving fruit chat, dehi belay, golghapa, and ice cream. It includes details on products and pricing, mission and objectives, space requirements, employees and salaries, marketing plans, financial projections, and risk assessment. The entrepreneurs aim to achieve a market position in the food industry by providing quality products to customers in Multan, Pakistan. Financial projections estimate profits will increase over four years.
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitivenessTCI Network
Cambodia experienced robust economic growth over the past two decades thanks to sound macroeconomic policies that attracted investment. However, total factor productivity has moderated and competitiveness has eroded as wages have risen. While investment continues to support growth, employment growth has slowed as the agriculture sector sheds jobs. The economy contracted in 2020 due to the pandemic but is projected to recover in 2021, though sustaining growth will require improving competitiveness through diversification.
The document summarizes the current state of the Canadian and Toronto real estate markets. It finds that while economic growth has slowed, job growth continues in Toronto. Interest rates have risen but are expected to increase only modestly in the future. Housing sales have declined from record highs but are forecast to rebound. Condo apartment sales and prices closely follow overall trends, with increased supply a potential risk to future price appreciation. Affordability remains sound, suggesting current price levels are justified.
The document outlines goals and a financial analysis for a project called Shakti. It aims to increase the number of entrepreneurs involved to 25,000 by 2006 and 100,000 by 2010. It also wants to increase consumers to 100 million by 2006 and 350 million by 2010. The financial analysis shows declining profits from 2003-2004. The document then discusses strategies to boost sales in rural areas by expanding multi-level marketing and providing microcredits. It also outlines actions to increase both entrepreneurs and customers in order to contribute more to total company revenues.
North Carolina's economy and tax revenues have been declining in recent decades. While the state was once a top performer in job and income growth, it now lags behind national averages. The tax base has narrowed as consumption patterns have changed, yet tax rates have increased to compensate. This unstable structure leaves the state vulnerable to budget shortfalls during recessions. To promote long-term economic growth and fiscal stability, tax reform is needed to develop a simpler, more competitive system that broadens the base and ensures a steady revenue stream.
The document provides information on various stock exchanges in India, including the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), National Stock Exchange (NSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), Over the Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI), and the United Stock Exchange (USE). It discusses the history, operations, products, technology and trading volumes of these major Indian stock exchanges.
The document discusses principles of tax reform and evaluates different tax policies based on their efficiency, simplicity, equity and impact on the distribution of the tax burden. It provides data on the federal budget and revenues over time. Distribution tables are presented showing what percentage of the tax burden is paid by different income groups under current tax laws and how some proposed tax reforms could shift that distribution.
- Most global equity indices eased during the week except the DAX and FTSE 100. The NASDAQ fell the most at 4.5% driven by declines in technology stocks.
- In Kenya, the NASI and NSE 20 rose by 3.2% and 0.9% respectively led by a 5.1% gain in Safaricom's share price. Equity turnover increased by 179.2%.
- Treasury bill yields rose marginally by 0.05-0.08% with the 91-day bill seeing the highest subscription rate of 141.33%. The Kenya shilling appreciated against major currencies.
The document outlines a business plan for a restaurant serving fruit chat, dehi belay, golghapa, and ice cream. It includes details on products and pricing, mission and objectives, space requirements, employees and salaries, marketing plans, financial projections, and risk assessment. The entrepreneurs aim to achieve a market position in the food industry by providing quality products to customers in Multan, Pakistan. Financial projections estimate profits will increase over four years.
Cambodia's economic growth path and competitivenessTCI Network
Cambodia experienced robust economic growth over the past two decades thanks to sound macroeconomic policies that attracted investment. However, total factor productivity has moderated and competitiveness has eroded as wages have risen. While investment continues to support growth, employment growth has slowed as the agriculture sector sheds jobs. The economy contracted in 2020 due to the pandemic but is projected to recover in 2021, though sustaining growth will require improving competitiveness through diversification.
This weekly newsletter provides a market wrap of the week's performance in the Indian equity market. Key points include:
- The Nifty and Sensex ended the week down 2.5% each, with the indices at their lowest point since January.
- Global markets also had a volatile week and ended lower.
- Top gainers and losers are listed from the NSE, along with volume top performers and sectoral indices performances.
- Technical analysis indicates the trends in the Nifty and Bank Nifty are consolidating, with noted resistance and support levels.
A Tour of Inflation . . . . . .and why the world (& the UK) is not RosyRedington
This document discusses challenges facing the global and UK economies, including high unemployment, weak wage growth, fiscal tightening, and debt sustainability issues. Inflation is expected to remain low across developed economies due to slack in labor markets and weak wage demands. The UK faces particular challenges, such as a weak industrial production recovery despite currency depreciation, mixed retail sales, and high inflation expectations according to options markets. Deleveraging of private sector and bank balance sheets will constrain credit growth for years.
During ICCI's May Business Lunch, keynote speaker Antony Kelly shared with our business community key insights on end of the financial year main figures.
Private equity performance remained steady in the third quarter of 2006 according to Thomson Financial and the National Venture Capital Association. Venture capital returns decreased slightly short-term but continued improving long-term, outperforming public markets. Buyout returns also decreased slightly short-term but remained steady long-term. While stability has benefited the industry, decisions about long-held portfolio companies could impact returns going forward.
The document discusses NGDP targeting and its effects. It argues that NGDP targeting:
1) Only induces inflation and does nothing for real economic growth.
2) Diminishes the savings of older, poor, and middle-class savers by stealing value through inflation.
3) Data from several countries between 1950-1990 shows no correlation between money growth and real GDP growth, indicating that expanding the money base does not lead to real economic growth.
The document summarizes recent political, economic, and industry developments in Indonesia based on a survey. It finds that while the economy grew around 7% annually, issues remain such as falling government approval ratings, concerns around corruption, and challenges managing urban growth. It also analyzes trends in exports, monetary policy, stock markets, budgets, and the impacts of natural disasters like Mount Merapi's eruption.
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2010BoyarMiller
This document summarizes a presentation on the current state of the capital markets given on September 10, 2010. It discusses 2010 market performance data for various asset classes. It then covers topics like the end of the recession, unemployment, credit availability, the housing market, government stimulus, and earnings estimates. The presentation outlines risks in 2010 like the withdrawal of stimulus, China slowing, and debt issues. It recommends investment strategies focused on capital preservation and diversification. Charts on interest rates, government and consumer debt, and corporate cash levels are also included. The next sections will cover private equity, debt markets, mergers and acquisitions, and conclusions.
This document provides a performance analysis of an algorithm company over various periods from 2017-2020. It includes key financial metrics such as sales, operating profit, net income, debt ratio, and stock price. It also evaluates the company's stock against an indication price and recommends purchase amounts at different price levels. Charts show the stock's probability score of rising compared to sector averages and past increase rates. The analysis is from a consulting firm called The Algorithm Company Analysis Consulting and includes compliance notices about the accuracy and appropriate use of the information.
The document discusses the implications of changing the inflation index used for statutory indexation of UK pensions from RPI to CPI. It provides background on the difference between the RPI and CPI baskets and historical differences in their rates. It summarizes views from various parties on expected long-term differences between RPI and CPI inflation. The document also examines the impact of the change on pension schemes, insurers, and hedging strategies. A survey of actuaries and trustees finds most expect CPI to be 0.5-1% lower than RPI long-term but strategies for schemes that can switch to CPI vary.
This document provides a summary of a company's financial performance and stock price over several periods. It includes tables with metrics like sales, operating profit, debt ratio, and earnings per share. Charts show the company's current and indication stock prices, and how they compare to peers in the sector. A scoring system evaluates the probability of the stock price rising. Based on this analysis, the summary recommends purchasing the stock at its current or indicated prices.
How can we prepare for the mood of the market? Use micro indicators for a comprehensive look at the market in this month's Market Outlook!
#ICICIPrudentialMutualFund #MonthlyMarketOutlook #October #Investment #MutualFunds
A bad week ended red with Nifty and Sensex both down more than 3.2 %.
U.S. Unemployment claims came at 367K; Trade Balance came at (-) 51.8B.
This week has given a weak ending for almost all international markets.
- Indian stocks broke a four-week winning streak and fell significantly this week due to concerns over political tensions hindering policy reforms.
- The Nifty is expected to consolidate in the range of 5,100-5,460 this week and may face resistance at higher levels with support at lower levels.
- India's GDP grew 5.5% in the first quarter of 2012-2013, ruling out further monetary easing by the RBI in the near future.
Infosys Technologies announced its fourth quarter results for fiscal year 2010 on April 13th, reporting a 1.14% increase in quarterly profits. Revenues increased 3.54% for the quarter. However, operating margins declined slightly. The company also provided guidance for fiscal year 2011, expecting earnings per share growth of 4.3-8.6% but lowered revenue guidance in rupee terms to 9-11% due to rupee appreciation. Challenges for the company include a potential interest rate hike by the RBI, currency fluctuations, and increased competition.
This report provides an analysis and outlook of the Indian stock market. It recommends remaining invested in India as the economic outlook remains bright, but notes valuations already reflect this. Specific sectors like consumer, materials, IT and telecom are highlighted as likely to perform well. A strong monsoon would boost rural areas more than urban. Medium size companies may benefit most from new policies. The overall market is given a target of 29750 on the BSE SENSEX, representing a 6% upside. Risks discussed include a global slowdown, rising inflation or commodity prices, and domestic political issues.
The Indian equity markets declined over the past week. The Nifty lost 1.97% and the Sensex fell 2%. Key sectors like banks, pharma, cement, and finance all ended lower. Technically, the Nifty may see a short-term range-bound movement around 5300-5740. Globally, US and European markets declined with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both down around 3%. Asian markets also ended lower for the week on bearish trends.
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFBGraphics
The document summarizes the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy response in the United States. It shows that:
1) The pandemic devastated the US economy, causing unprecedented job losses, but the policy response through COVID relief legislation was aggressive and supported an economic recovery.
2) However, the relief was clearly too large and boosted income and consumption substantially above pre-pandemic trends, leading to overheating of the economy and high inflation rates not seen in decades.
3) Inflation remains elevated and risks persisting due to various factors like wage-price spirals, so the Federal Reserve plans to aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation though achieving a "soft landing" will be difficult.
The document discusses Duratex's business segments, capital markets performance, and expansion plans. It outlines Duratex's leadership in the Brazilian panel making and sanitary ware industries, and provides an overview of market conditions and Duratex's financial results, with revenues increasing 7.3% year-over-year in 3Q2007 and plans to invest $830 million from 2007-2009 to increase production capacity.
The document outlines the knowledge domains and weightings covered on the CMT Level I exam. It details that the exam focuses on introductory technical analysis concepts and consists of 132 multiple choice questions, of which 120 are scored. Candidates have two hours to complete the exam, which is administered on a computer at Prometric testing facilities. The major knowledge domains covered include trend analysis, chart and pattern analysis, selection and decision making, and ethics.
Standard VI addresses conflicts of interest. It requires members and candidates to (1) make full disclosure of any matters that could impair their independence or objectivity or interfere with client duties, (2) ensure disclosures are clear and prominent, and (3) give priority to client and employer transactions over personal transactions. Members must also disclose any compensation received for referrals.
This weekly newsletter provides a market wrap of the week's performance in the Indian equity market. Key points include:
- The Nifty and Sensex ended the week down 2.5% each, with the indices at their lowest point since January.
- Global markets also had a volatile week and ended lower.
- Top gainers and losers are listed from the NSE, along with volume top performers and sectoral indices performances.
- Technical analysis indicates the trends in the Nifty and Bank Nifty are consolidating, with noted resistance and support levels.
A Tour of Inflation . . . . . .and why the world (& the UK) is not RosyRedington
This document discusses challenges facing the global and UK economies, including high unemployment, weak wage growth, fiscal tightening, and debt sustainability issues. Inflation is expected to remain low across developed economies due to slack in labor markets and weak wage demands. The UK faces particular challenges, such as a weak industrial production recovery despite currency depreciation, mixed retail sales, and high inflation expectations according to options markets. Deleveraging of private sector and bank balance sheets will constrain credit growth for years.
During ICCI's May Business Lunch, keynote speaker Antony Kelly shared with our business community key insights on end of the financial year main figures.
Private equity performance remained steady in the third quarter of 2006 according to Thomson Financial and the National Venture Capital Association. Venture capital returns decreased slightly short-term but continued improving long-term, outperforming public markets. Buyout returns also decreased slightly short-term but remained steady long-term. While stability has benefited the industry, decisions about long-held portfolio companies could impact returns going forward.
The document discusses NGDP targeting and its effects. It argues that NGDP targeting:
1) Only induces inflation and does nothing for real economic growth.
2) Diminishes the savings of older, poor, and middle-class savers by stealing value through inflation.
3) Data from several countries between 1950-1990 shows no correlation between money growth and real GDP growth, indicating that expanding the money base does not lead to real economic growth.
The document summarizes recent political, economic, and industry developments in Indonesia based on a survey. It finds that while the economy grew around 7% annually, issues remain such as falling government approval ratings, concerns around corruption, and challenges managing urban growth. It also analyzes trends in exports, monetary policy, stock markets, budgets, and the impacts of natural disasters like Mount Merapi's eruption.
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2010BoyarMiller
This document summarizes a presentation on the current state of the capital markets given on September 10, 2010. It discusses 2010 market performance data for various asset classes. It then covers topics like the end of the recession, unemployment, credit availability, the housing market, government stimulus, and earnings estimates. The presentation outlines risks in 2010 like the withdrawal of stimulus, China slowing, and debt issues. It recommends investment strategies focused on capital preservation and diversification. Charts on interest rates, government and consumer debt, and corporate cash levels are also included. The next sections will cover private equity, debt markets, mergers and acquisitions, and conclusions.
This document provides a performance analysis of an algorithm company over various periods from 2017-2020. It includes key financial metrics such as sales, operating profit, net income, debt ratio, and stock price. It also evaluates the company's stock against an indication price and recommends purchase amounts at different price levels. Charts show the stock's probability score of rising compared to sector averages and past increase rates. The analysis is from a consulting firm called The Algorithm Company Analysis Consulting and includes compliance notices about the accuracy and appropriate use of the information.
The document discusses the implications of changing the inflation index used for statutory indexation of UK pensions from RPI to CPI. It provides background on the difference between the RPI and CPI baskets and historical differences in their rates. It summarizes views from various parties on expected long-term differences between RPI and CPI inflation. The document also examines the impact of the change on pension schemes, insurers, and hedging strategies. A survey of actuaries and trustees finds most expect CPI to be 0.5-1% lower than RPI long-term but strategies for schemes that can switch to CPI vary.
This document provides a summary of a company's financial performance and stock price over several periods. It includes tables with metrics like sales, operating profit, debt ratio, and earnings per share. Charts show the company's current and indication stock prices, and how they compare to peers in the sector. A scoring system evaluates the probability of the stock price rising. Based on this analysis, the summary recommends purchasing the stock at its current or indicated prices.
How can we prepare for the mood of the market? Use micro indicators for a comprehensive look at the market in this month's Market Outlook!
#ICICIPrudentialMutualFund #MonthlyMarketOutlook #October #Investment #MutualFunds
A bad week ended red with Nifty and Sensex both down more than 3.2 %.
U.S. Unemployment claims came at 367K; Trade Balance came at (-) 51.8B.
This week has given a weak ending for almost all international markets.
- Indian stocks broke a four-week winning streak and fell significantly this week due to concerns over political tensions hindering policy reforms.
- The Nifty is expected to consolidate in the range of 5,100-5,460 this week and may face resistance at higher levels with support at lower levels.
- India's GDP grew 5.5% in the first quarter of 2012-2013, ruling out further monetary easing by the RBI in the near future.
Infosys Technologies announced its fourth quarter results for fiscal year 2010 on April 13th, reporting a 1.14% increase in quarterly profits. Revenues increased 3.54% for the quarter. However, operating margins declined slightly. The company also provided guidance for fiscal year 2011, expecting earnings per share growth of 4.3-8.6% but lowered revenue guidance in rupee terms to 9-11% due to rupee appreciation. Challenges for the company include a potential interest rate hike by the RBI, currency fluctuations, and increased competition.
This report provides an analysis and outlook of the Indian stock market. It recommends remaining invested in India as the economic outlook remains bright, but notes valuations already reflect this. Specific sectors like consumer, materials, IT and telecom are highlighted as likely to perform well. A strong monsoon would boost rural areas more than urban. Medium size companies may benefit most from new policies. The overall market is given a target of 29750 on the BSE SENSEX, representing a 6% upside. Risks discussed include a global slowdown, rising inflation or commodity prices, and domestic political issues.
The Indian equity markets declined over the past week. The Nifty lost 1.97% and the Sensex fell 2%. Key sectors like banks, pharma, cement, and finance all ended lower. Technically, the Nifty may see a short-term range-bound movement around 5300-5740. Globally, US and European markets declined with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both down around 3%. Asian markets also ended lower for the week on bearish trends.
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFBGraphics
The document summarizes the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy response in the United States. It shows that:
1) The pandemic devastated the US economy, causing unprecedented job losses, but the policy response through COVID relief legislation was aggressive and supported an economic recovery.
2) However, the relief was clearly too large and boosted income and consumption substantially above pre-pandemic trends, leading to overheating of the economy and high inflation rates not seen in decades.
3) Inflation remains elevated and risks persisting due to various factors like wage-price spirals, so the Federal Reserve plans to aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation though achieving a "soft landing" will be difficult.
The document discusses Duratex's business segments, capital markets performance, and expansion plans. It outlines Duratex's leadership in the Brazilian panel making and sanitary ware industries, and provides an overview of market conditions and Duratex's financial results, with revenues increasing 7.3% year-over-year in 3Q2007 and plans to invest $830 million from 2007-2009 to increase production capacity.
The document outlines the knowledge domains and weightings covered on the CMT Level I exam. It details that the exam focuses on introductory technical analysis concepts and consists of 132 multiple choice questions, of which 120 are scored. Candidates have two hours to complete the exam, which is administered on a computer at Prometric testing facilities. The major knowledge domains covered include trend analysis, chart and pattern analysis, selection and decision making, and ethics.
Standard VI addresses conflicts of interest. It requires members and candidates to (1) make full disclosure of any matters that could impair their independence or objectivity or interfere with client duties, (2) ensure disclosures are clear and prominent, and (3) give priority to client and employer transactions over personal transactions. Members must also disclose any compensation received for referrals.
This document outlines standards for investment analysis, recommendations, and actions. It discusses three key standards:
1) Diligence and reasonable basis, requiring members to exercise diligence, independence, and thoroughness when analyzing investments and making recommendations, and to have an adequate and supported basis for their analysis and actions.
2) Communication with clients, requiring members to disclose their investment processes, limitations, and risks to clients, use reasonable judgment in identifying important factors, and distinguish fact from opinion.
3) Record retention, requiring members to develop and maintain records supporting their analysis, recommendations, communications with clients.
Members and candidates must act for the benefit of their employer, not deprive them of skills/abilities or divulge confidential information. They cannot accept gifts or compensation that conflict with the employer's interests without consent. Members must make reasonable efforts to ensure anyone under their supervision complies with applicable laws, rules, regulations, and the Code and Standards.
Standard III outlines the duties CFA charterholders owe to their clients, including the duties of loyalty, prudence, care, fair dealing, suitability, performance presentation, and preservation of confidentiality. Specifically, it states that members must act in the best interest of clients, make suitable investment recommendations based on a client's needs and constraints, communicate performance information fairly and accurately, and keep client information confidential.
Members and candidates must uphold the integrity of capital markets. Specifically, they must not trade or share material non-public information that could affect investment prices. They also should not engage in practices like price distortion or artificially inflating trading volume with the intent to mislead others in the market. This standard is meant to promote ethical conduct and protect investors.
The document summarizes standards of professionalism for CMT Level I regarding knowledge of the law, independence and objectivity, misrepresentation, and misconduct. Standard I(A) states that members must understand and comply with all applicable laws and regulations, and in conflicts comply with the more strict rule. Standard I(B) requires members to maintain independence and objectivity and not accept gifts that could compromise their judgment. Standard I(C) prohibits knowingly misrepresenting analysis or recommendations. Standard I(D) prohibits conduct involving dishonesty, fraud, or deceit, or acts that adversely affect one's professional reputation.
Relative strength compares the performance of one asset to another over a period of time by taking the price of one and dividing it by the other. It provides context on whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical trading range compared to the other. Pairs trading strategies look for opportunities when two historically correlated assets diverge in their relative strength. Tools for analyzing relative strength include price ratios, relative strength ranks based on market performance, volatility ranks, and identifying bullish or bearish divergences in the price relative.
The document discusses the model-building process for a market-timing model. It describes including various types of indicators such as internal/price-based, external/macroeconomic, sentiment, valuation, monetary, and momentum. These indicators are tested individually and combined to form a composite reading. The composite reading can then be used to guide asset allocation decisions in a disciplined and objective manner. The goal is to create a stable, predictable model that avoids emotional decisions and captures risk and reward signals.
The document discusses keys to making money in investing rather than focusing on being right in forecasts. It summarizes that successful investors use objective indicators rather than emotions, have discipline to stick to their system, are flexible enough to change their view when evidence shifts, and carefully manage risks. It provides insights from legendary investors like John Bogle, Paul Tudor Jones, and the Ned Davis Research Group about relying on indicators, not fighting trends, being wary of crowds at extremes, and prioritizing money making over being right.
This document discusses objective vs subjective technical analysis. Objective analysis uses clearly defined rules that can be backtested, while subjective analysis relies on private interpretations that may differ between analysts. The document focuses on objective analysis and defines rules as functions that transform market data into signals. It discusses factors like position bias, market trends, and look-ahead bias that can influence backtest results. Detrending data and accounting for trading costs are presented as ways to properly evaluate rules.
This document provides an introduction to probability concepts. It defines probability as the chance of an event occurring and lists some key rules, such as the probabilities of all possible outcomes must sum to 1. It describes the normal probability distribution as a bell-shaped curve that is symmetric around the expected rate of return. It then discusses skewness and kurtosis as measures of the asymmetry and peakedness of a distribution.
This document defines and explains key concepts in descriptive statistics, including measures of central tendency (mean, median, mode) and measures of variability (standard deviation, variance). It provides formulas and examples for calculating each measure. The mean is the most common measure of central tendency and is the average value, while the median is the middle value and mode is the most frequent value. Standard deviation and variance are measures of how spread out the values are around the mean.
The document discusses several sentiment measures derived from external data sources:
1) The American Association of Individual Investors surveys individual investors to gauge bullish or bearish sentiment.
2) Investors Intelligence tracks sentiment indicators like advisor reviews and insider activity to measure market participant sentiment.
3) Magazine cover indicators, like analyzing covers of BusinessWeek, Forbes, and Fortune, are sometimes used as a contrary indicator of economic sentiment.
4) Mutual fund liquidity ratios and money market fund assets are also discussed as measures of investor risk appetite and market sentiment.
This document discusses various market sentiment indicators including the Commitment of Traders report, VIX, insider trading, open interest, short interest, and the put/call ratio. The Commitment of Traders report provides data on futures market positions. VIX measures expected market volatility. Insider trading involves trading on non-public information. Open interest tracks outstanding derivative contracts. Short interest measures the number of shares sold short as a percentage. The put/call ratio uses options data to gauge bullish or bearish market sentiment.
Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude of investors toward a particular security or financial market. It indicates whether investors are feeling bullish and prices are rising, or bearish and prices are falling. There are several indicators that can help measure market sentiment, such as the VIX, high-low index, and bullish percent index. Key takeaways are that market sentiment reflects overall consensus on stocks and whether the tone is optimistic or pessimistic based on price movements.
The document discusses several theoretical approaches to analyzing financial markets, including the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). The EMH suggests that markets are efficient and prices fully reflect all available information, while the AMH combines EMH with behavioral economics by proposing that people are rational but sometimes irrational during periods of volatility, and they adapt and learn from their mistakes over time. The document also examines research on noise trading, informed vs. uninformed traders, and empirical evidence that both past prices and nonpublic information can be used to generate profits.
Trend-following noise traders use technical analysis of stock price charts to inform their trading decisions in a systematic way. This can lead to self-fulfilling trends as many noise traders react to the same patterns. Models attempt to explain bubble and crash behaviors that seem driven by herd instincts rather than fundamentals. The Abreu-Brunnermeier model allows bubbles to form but not certainty that arbitrage will burst them. Shiller's model notes stock prices anticipate dividends more than fundamentals would suggest, implying an impact from investor psychology contrary to prevailing views.
This document discusses the concepts of fungibility, the efficient market hypothesis, and noise traders. It explains that under the EMH, two identical items should have the same price. However, behavioral economists argue that giving items different names could lead to different prices if the names influence perceptions. It then discusses noise traders, who trade based on non-fundamental factors and influence prices away from efficiency. For noise traders to significantly impact markets, their behavior must be systematic and they must economically survive over time, posing a challenge to market efficiency.
This document discusses different investment strategies including momentum strategies, mean reversion strategies, and value investing. Momentum strategies seek to take advantage of short-term price movements, while mean reversion strategies assume prices will revert back to a stable trend. Value investing picks stocks trading below their intrinsic value, believing the market overreacts and offers opportunities. The document also discusses how value investing works by finding "secret sales" on stocks trading at a discount to their true value. Finally, it notes that constant financial news reporting can create "noise" that "noise traders" react to, while rational investors focus on their own analysis.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Discovering Delhi - India's Cultural Capital.pptxcosmo-soil
Delhi, the heartbeat of India, offers a rich blend of history, culture, and modernity. From iconic landmarks like the Red Fort to bustling commercial hubs and vibrant culinary scenes, Delhi's real estate landscape is dynamic and diverse. Discover the essence of India's capital, where tradition meets innovation.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Government Accounting in Nigeria
Being a Paper Presented at the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Budget Office Staff at Sojourner Hotel, GRA, Ikeja Lagos on Saturday 8th June, 2024.
How Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank’s Co-Branded RuPay Credit Card Cater...beulahfernandes8
The eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, a strategic collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank, represents a significant advancement in India's digital financial landscape. Spearheaded by Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp, the card leverages deep customer insights to offer tailored features such as no joining fees, movie ticket offers, and rewards on UPI transactions. IndusInd Bank's solid banking infrastructure and digital integration expertise ensure seamless service delivery in today's fast-paced digital economy. With a focus on meeting the growing demand for digital financial services, the card aims to cater to tech-savvy consumers and differentiate itself through unique features and superior customer service, ultimately poised to make a substantial impact in India's digital financial services space.
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7. Impact of Rising Interest Rates
• A Bank has taken a deposit of 100 from
public and CRR is 9 and SLR is 25 then
available funds to lend from deposits with the
bank will be 100-9-25=66
• Raising interest rates are required to control
excess liquidity in the markets
9. Cash Reserve Ratio
• Amount of cash that bank is to kept with RBI
• To secure solvency of the bank and to drain out the
excessive money from the banks.
• Present Rate is 4%
• If RBI decides to increase the percent of this, the
available amount with the banks comes down (To
reduce liquidity in market)
10. Repo Rate
• Rate at which our bank borrow rupees from
RBI
• Short term measure and to fill gaps between
demand and supply of money in a bank
• Present Rate is 7.75%
• Decreased from 8.00% which was
continuing since 17/04/2012
11. Reverse Repo Rate
• Rate which is paid by RBI to banks on
Deposit of funds with RBI(surplus fund with
bank)
• Present Rate is 6.75%
• Decreased from 7.00% which was
continuing since 17/04/2012
12. Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR)
• Bank needs to maintain in the form of cash, or gold
or govt. approved securities (Bonds) before
providing credit to its customers
• SLR rate is determined and maintained by the RBI
in order to control the expansion of bank credit
• Present rate is 23%
• Decreased from 24% which was continuing
since 18/12/2010
14. Interest Rate in World
TOP ECONOMIES LAST PREVIOUS HIGHEST LOWEST
AUSTRALIA 3.00 3.00 17.50 3.00
BRAZIL 7.25 7.25 45.00 7.25
CHINA 6.00 6.00 10.98 5.31
EURO AREA 0.75 0.75 4.75 0.75
FRANCE 0.75 0.75 4.75 0.75
GERMANY 0.75 0.75 4.75 0.75
INDIA 7.75 8.00 14.50 4.25
UNITED KINGDOM 0.50 0.50 17.00 0.50
UNITED STATES 0.25 0.25 20.00 0.25
15. Interest Rates
Details Facts
Frequency Quarterly
8 to 12 announcement
Low Interest Rate High liquidity positive for
Stocks, Currency but
negative for bonds
High Interest Rate Low liquidity negative for
stocks , currency but
positive for bonds
Below or above the Short term Volatility
benchmark
17. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Total market value of all final Goods &
Services Produced
Within the country in a given period of time
GDP = Consumption + Gross Investment +
Government Spending + (Exports – Imports)
18. Debt to GDP in World
TOP ECONOMIES LAST PREVIOUS HIGHEST LOWEST
AUSTRALIA 22.90 20.40 31.70 9.70
BRAZIL 65.10 66.20 79.80 63.50
CHINA 25.80 33.50 33.50 1.00
EURO AREA 87.30 85.40 87.30 66.20
FRANCE 86.00 82.30 86.00 20.70
GERMANY 80.50 82.50 82.50 55.60
INDIA 68.05 69.43 84.30 67.62
UNITED KINGDOM 85.00 79.40 85.00 31.30
UNITED STATES 101.60 99.40 121.70 31.70
19. GDP Rate in World
TOP GDP (USD
LAST PREVIOUS HIGHEST
ECONOMIES Billion)
AUSTRALIA 3.10 3.70 9.00 1371
BRAZIL 1.40 0.90 10.10 2476
CHINA 7.90 7.40 14.20 7298
EURO AREA -0.90 -0.60 5.00 13075
FRANCE -0.30 0.15 4.90 2773
GERMANY 0.10 0.40 4.70 3750
INDIA 4.50 5.30 10.20 1847
ITALY -2.70 -2.40 10.30 2194
JAPAN 0.30 0.40 9.40 5867
UNITED
0.30 0.20 10.20 2431
KINGDOM
UNITED STATES 1.60 2.60 13.40 15094
22. GDP
Details Facts
Frequency Quarterly (Revised monthly)
High GDP Positive for Stocks, Currency
strong(Due to foreign
investor) but negative for
bonds (Also create risk of
high inflation)
Component of GDP Sector perform as per the
growth contributed by each
sector
Below or above the Short term Volatility
benchmark
24. Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
A short term indicator
Measures industrial growth till the actual result
available
Used by Ministries, Industrial Associations, Research
Institutes & Academicians
28. IIP Rate in World
TOP
LAST PREVIOUS HIGHEST LOWEST FREQUENCY
ECONOMIES
AUSTRALIA 4.33 2.69 13.72 -8.00 Quarterly
BRAZIL -3.60 -1.00 20.12 -17.47 Monthly
CHINA 10.30 10.10 29.40 -21.10 Monthly
EURO AREA -2.40 -4.00 9.80 -21.40 Monthly
FRANCE -3.10 -3.20 8.50 -19.30 Monthly
GERMANY -1.10 -3.10 15.00 -22.00 Monthly
INDIA -0.60 -0.10 20.00 -7.20 Monthly
UNITED
-1.70 -2.40 22.60 -11.90 Monthly
KINGDOM
UNITED
2.10 2.20 62.00 -33.70 Monthly
STATES
29. Unemployment Rate in World
TOP ECONOMIES LAST PREVIOUS HIGHEST LOWEST
AUSTRALIA 5.40 5.40 10.90 4.00
BRAZIL 5.40 4.60 13.10 4.60
CANADA 7.00 7.10 13.10 2.90
CHINA 4.10 4.10 4.30 3.90
EURO AREA 11.90 11.80 11.90 7.20
FRANCE 10.30 10.20 11.20 7.50
GERMANY 5.90 5.30 14.20 0.40
INDIA 3.80 9.40 9.40 3.80
UNITED
7.80 7.70 12.00 3.40
KINGDOM
UNITED STATES 7.90 7.80 10.80 2.50
30. IIP
Details Facts
Frequency Monthly
High IIP Positive for Stocks, Currency
strong, Commodity but
negative for bonds (Also
create risk of high inflation)
Below or above the Short term Volatility
benchmark
32. Balance of Payment
Measures the payments that flow between any
individual country and all other country
Summarizes all international transaction for that
country in a year
It includes Export-Import, Financial
capitals,deposits,borrowings etc
33. Balance of Payment
Current • Consists of Goods & Services Account,
Primary Income Account & Secondary
Account Income Account
• Capital transfers receivables and payable
Capital • The acquisition and disposal of non
Account produced non financial assets.
• Involve financial assets & liabilities
Financial • Take place between residents &
Account nonresidents
37. Balance of Trade
TOP
LAST PREVIOUS HIGHEST LOWEST UNIT
ECONOMIES
BRAZIL -1276.00 -4036.33 5659.37 -4036.33 USD Million
USD Hundred
CHINA 291.46 316.18 404.00 -319.81
Million
FRANCE -5349.00 -4289.00 2674.00 -7021.00 EUR Million
GERMANY 12.00 17.00 20.10 -0.50 EUR Billion
INDIA -1086.12 -965.73 13.91 -1111.46 INR Billion
JAPAN -1629.44 -643.29 1608.68 -1629.44 Billion JPY
UNITED
-3201.00 -3577.00 2946.00 -6067.00 GBP Million
KINGDOM
UNITED USD Million
-38539.00 -48613.00 -831.00 -67351.00
STATES
38. Balance Of Payment
Details Facts
Frequency Monthly
High deficit on BOP Negative for the currency
(Low inflow of foreign
currency) Also International
commodities are also rising
Below or above the Short term Volatility
benchmark
41. Exchange Rate
• Exchange rate means how much one currency is worth in
terms of another currency. If we can buy $ 1 with Rs. 46, the
exchange rate of the two currencies would be $1 = Rs. 46.
• Two types of exchange rate: Fixed and Floating
• In India, we have a Managed Floating Exchange Rate
System- Indian government intervenes only if the exchange
rate seems to go out of hand by increasing or reducing the
money supply as the situation demands.
42. Factors drive the demand for a currency
• Interest Rates – Differential rates between two countries
(For ex – in India interest rates 7-8% and in US 2-3% this
lead to greater capital inflow in India) rupee Appreciate
• Inflation Rates- If inflation rate is lower than more good
are exported which lead to currency inflow .then Rupee
Appreciate
• Export-Import- If export is more than import ,more
currency inflow of other country, which lead to currency
appreciation
• Trading in currency in Forex Market
45. Inflation Rate in World
COUNTRIES PREVIOUS HIGHEST LOWEST FREQUENCY
AUSTRALIA 2.20 2.00 23.90 Dec/2012
BRAZIL 6.15 5.84 6821.31 Jan/2013
CANADA 0.50 0.80 21.60 Jan/2013
CHINA 2.00 2.50 28.40 Jan/2013
EURO AREA 1.80 2.00 5.00 Feb/2013
FRANCE 1.20 1.30 18.80 Jan/2013
GERMANY 1.55 1.70 11.40 Feb/2013
INDIA 6.62 7.18 34.68 Jan/2013
ITALY 1.91 2.20 25.64 Feb/2013
JAPAN -0.30 -0.10 25.00 Jan/2013
UNITED
2.70 2.70 8.50 Jan/2013
KINGDOM
UNITED STATES 1.60 1.70 23.70
47. Inflation
Details Facts
Frequency Monthly
High Inflation Negative for currency ,
Increase risk interest rate
hike which effect stock
market ,Bonds are stable
commodity are rising
Below or above the Short term Volatility
benchmark
48. Major Obstacles in Indian Economy
• Infrastructure Shortage
• Inflation V/s GDP
• Fiscal Deficit
• Unemployment Rate
• Financial Sector