The Big Economic Issues for 2016 Craig James delivered an insightful presentation on the state of the Australian economy for 2016 and beyond. Craig’s presentation addressed some of the current themes What measures are likely in the Budget, and how will they affect you? What is the new 'normal' economic growth for Australia? What impact the economic changes in China will have on us? What is the outlook for the Australian share market? What affect rising US interest rates will have on share markets?

1. Craig James, Chief Economist, @CommSec
Late April 2016

2. 2
Important Information
This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives,
financial situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the
information in this seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your
circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.
Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399
AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of
Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 and a Participant of the
ASX Group.
Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 3
The Big Issues

4. 4
Will oil prices rebound to US$100/barrel?
Supply/demand
Winners/losers
Competition for energy
Lower costs
Technology
The next China?

5. 5
Low inflation here to stay?…

6. 6
Global: Can do better…

7. 7
United States: Time on its hands

8. 8
China: Consumers to lead

9. 9
Australia: In good shape
Stocktake
World-leading growth
Jobless rate 26-month low
Record car sales
Record dwelling starts
Record tourist arrivals
Above-normal spending

10. 10
Animal spirits return

11. 11
Housing: leads the way nationally
Stocktake
More homes
Apartments dominate
Slower population
Softer home prices
Watch vacancies

12. 12
Home prices: In context

13. 13
Future issues: Tax & spending

14. 14
Interest Rates: On hold
Stocktake
‘Easing bias’
Low inflation
But good economy
Inflation watch
Jobless rate in focus

15. 15
Aussie Dollar: Getting ahead of itself?
Stocktake
US rates to rise…slowly
Aussie rate cut?
China doubts
Commodity prices
Firmer Aussie economy
Tourism lifts

16. 16
Shares: Making profits, paying dividends

17. 17
Outlook
FORECASTS
20162015
2.75-3.25%3.00%Economic Growth
2.25-2.75%2.00%Underlying inflation
5.50-6.00%5.80%Unemployment
end 2016mid 2016
1.75-2.00%1.75-2.00%Cash rate
5,500-5,7005,200-5,400Sharemarket (All Ords)
US73-79cUS72-78cAustralian dollar