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Your Retirement (!)
  - The problem
     • if you’re 20 now, you can expect to
       live to 79 (76 for men, 81 for women)
        - U.S. ranks 49th in the world
        - not that much in the genes
     • much longer is a possibility
     • current average retirement age: 62
       - many don’t choose their retirement
         date due to illness or buyouts
• Social Security
   - never designed for all retirement
     needs; supposed to keep seniors
     out of dire poverty
      • pretty much has
      • average benefit: $1,200/month
   - Baby Boomers won’t “use it up” as
     it is a largely a “pay as you go
     system”
     • some funds are set aside, but
     will be gone by about 2033
     • the “trust fund” is just a general
     obligation of the federal
     government
• Social Security (continued)
      - thus, benefits will almost certainly
        go down; you might expect
        ~$900/mo. (in today’s dollars)
        starting at age 67 (likely later)
• Traditional employer pension plans
   - “defined benefit”
     • fading away
What To Do?
  - “save early and often”
  - illustration
     • historical returns on stocks of 11%
       (quite varied)
     • assume 2% inflation
     • save $300/month (which ↑ with
       inflation)
       age savings starts funds at age 63
           43                $201,900
           33                $553,400
           23              $1,415,000
     • why college students must know
What To Do? (continued)
  - aren’t stocks risky?
       ex: down 37% in 2008
       ex: up 26% in 2009, 15% in 2010
       ex: -0.04% in 2011
    • certainly risky in the short run
    • over decades in the past, they’ve
      always had a significantly positive
      return
stock market returns by year
How to Save?
  - most employers offer “defined
    contribution” plans
      • 401(k), 403(b), & 457
      • major tax benefits
      • various investments “in” them,
        such as mutual funds, which in
        turn invest in stocks, bonds, and
        other assets
  - often employers match contributions
    you make
     • freest money you’ll likely ever get
  - IRAs – you put funds away tax-free
     • can also “roll over” funds from
       employer plans when you leave
How to Save? (continued)
  - with a “defined contribution” plan,
    you’re in charge (“DIY”)
     • in other words, you select how
       much goes in
     • in 401(k) plans, is often in company
       stock, which is very undiversified
        - instead, invest in mutual funds
          that are in 401(k), 403(b), 457
       plans (again, tax benefits)
     • you also select the investments
       among mutual funds or possibly
       “exchange traded funds” (ETFs)
     • low cost is key – higher fees get
       you nothing but lower returns
       ex: Vanguard
How to Save? (continued)
   • best to be well diversified – say
     broad stock and bond funds to be
     well diversified
   • easiest way
      - select a “life cycle fund”
        ex: Fidelity Freedom Funds
        ex: Vanguard Target Ret. Funds
      - put in 15% of your income into a
        “life cycle fund” every pay
     period starting with your first job
      - never, ever take funds out until
        retirement
   • alternative – have lots of kids and
     hope one will take care of you?
Live to retirement & have a long one:
  • about
    70% of cancer can be avoided by lifesty

  • 80-90% of coronary artery disease
    (i.e. “heart attacks”)
    due to lifestyle & easily corrected facto

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Retirement recording

  • 1. Your Retirement (!) - The problem • if you’re 20 now, you can expect to live to 79 (76 for men, 81 for women) - U.S. ranks 49th in the world - not that much in the genes • much longer is a possibility • current average retirement age: 62 - many don’t choose their retirement date due to illness or buyouts
  • 2. • Social Security - never designed for all retirement needs; supposed to keep seniors out of dire poverty • pretty much has • average benefit: $1,200/month - Baby Boomers won’t “use it up” as it is a largely a “pay as you go system” • some funds are set aside, but will be gone by about 2033 • the “trust fund” is just a general obligation of the federal government
  • 3. • Social Security (continued) - thus, benefits will almost certainly go down; you might expect ~$900/mo. (in today’s dollars) starting at age 67 (likely later) • Traditional employer pension plans - “defined benefit” • fading away
  • 4. What To Do? - “save early and often” - illustration • historical returns on stocks of 11% (quite varied) • assume 2% inflation • save $300/month (which ↑ with inflation) age savings starts funds at age 63 43 $201,900 33 $553,400 23 $1,415,000 • why college students must know
  • 5. What To Do? (continued) - aren’t stocks risky? ex: down 37% in 2008 ex: up 26% in 2009, 15% in 2010 ex: -0.04% in 2011 • certainly risky in the short run • over decades in the past, they’ve always had a significantly positive return
  • 6.
  • 8. How to Save? - most employers offer “defined contribution” plans • 401(k), 403(b), & 457 • major tax benefits • various investments “in” them, such as mutual funds, which in turn invest in stocks, bonds, and other assets - often employers match contributions you make • freest money you’ll likely ever get - IRAs – you put funds away tax-free • can also “roll over” funds from employer plans when you leave
  • 9. How to Save? (continued) - with a “defined contribution” plan, you’re in charge (“DIY”) • in other words, you select how much goes in • in 401(k) plans, is often in company stock, which is very undiversified - instead, invest in mutual funds that are in 401(k), 403(b), 457 plans (again, tax benefits) • you also select the investments among mutual funds or possibly “exchange traded funds” (ETFs) • low cost is key – higher fees get you nothing but lower returns ex: Vanguard
  • 10. How to Save? (continued) • best to be well diversified – say broad stock and bond funds to be well diversified • easiest way - select a “life cycle fund” ex: Fidelity Freedom Funds ex: Vanguard Target Ret. Funds - put in 15% of your income into a “life cycle fund” every pay period starting with your first job - never, ever take funds out until retirement • alternative – have lots of kids and hope one will take care of you?
  • 11. Live to retirement & have a long one: • about 70% of cancer can be avoided by lifesty • 80-90% of coronary artery disease (i.e. “heart attacks”) due to lifestyle & easily corrected facto

Editor's Notes

  1. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_21.pdf