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Lecture #4
Anarchy, the Security Dilemma, and
Problems of Credible Commitment
Anarchy, the Security Dilemma, and Problems
of Credible Commitment
• Realists emphasize anarchy and two problems that
flow from it: the security dilemma and problems of
credible commitment
• Idealist/liberal counterpoint: anarchy isn’t as
constraining as realists insist, thus the resulting
problems aren’t as common, serious, or
insurmountable as realists contend
Anarchy
•Definition: not chaos or disorder, but the
lack of a world government above sovereign
states
•Implications of anarchy:
•Self-help system
•Enforcement
•Cooperation and trust
Anarchy
•Implications of anarchy:
•Self-help system: no world police
•Doesn’t imply no consequences for
aggressors/cheaters, but sovereign states must
choose to impose these consequences
•Example: anti-Iraq coalition after Saddam’s
invasion of Kuwait
Anarchy
•Implications of anarchy:
•Enforcement of international agreements & UN
resolutions is often frustrated by state sovereignty
and conflicting interests
Anarchy
•Implications of anarchy:
•Cooperation and trust are difficult: no global
enforcer exists to ensure states abide by treaties,
and states must “assume the worst”—focusing on
others’ capabilities rather than intentions
The Security Dilemma
•Definition: steps countries take to make
themselves more secure can actually make them
less secure in the long run
•Examples: arms races (Cold War?), missile
defense, alliance formation
World Powers
• Middle Powers- In international relations, a middle power is a
sovereign state that is not a superpower nor a great power, but still
has large or moderate influence and international recognition.
• Great Powers- A great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as
having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale.
• Balance of Powers- Theory suggests that national security is
enhanced when military capability is distributed so that no one state
is strong enough to dominate all others.
Useful metaphor to illustrate this problem is the
Prisoner’s Dilemma Game.
Imagine you and another person rob a bank but are
later arrested but without air-tight evidence. You are
placed in separate rooms for interrogation. You are
faced with a choice to confess and blame the plan on
the other person with the reward of going free or
keeping your mouth shut. If you both keep quiet,
neither of you may be convicted. If you both confess,
you may both get more lenient sentences.
What would you do confess or keep quiet?
The Security Dilemma
•A result of anarchy because states must respond
to capabilities rather than intentions
•Offense/defense balance and ease of distinguishing
offensive from defensive weaponry will affect the
severity of the dilemma (Jervis)
Problems of Credible Commitment
•Definition: the difficulty states (and other actors)
have in credibly (believably) promising to do
something that might not be in their interests.
Problems of Credible Commitment
•Examples:
•Government facing rebels promises not to seek
retribution if rebels disarm
•Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Israel promises not to
reoccupy Palestinian territories if Palestinians
accept restrictions on size of armed forces
•In both of these cases, the stronger actor’s promise
is not credible to the weaker
Problems of Credible Commitment
•Problem driven by anarchy because there is no
higher authority above states that can enforce
agreements and prevent states from acting in
their self-interests
Problems of Credible Commitment
•Possible solution: have a powerful outside actor
that has an interest in protecting the weaker
actor guarantee the weaker actor’s security.
•The stronger power becomes the enforcer an
anarchic system lacks
•The strong power’s commitment to intervene is
believable given its interests
Crash Course: End of the Cold War
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9HjvHZfCUI

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Lecture 4.pptx

  • 1. Lecture #4 Anarchy, the Security Dilemma, and Problems of Credible Commitment
  • 2. Anarchy, the Security Dilemma, and Problems of Credible Commitment • Realists emphasize anarchy and two problems that flow from it: the security dilemma and problems of credible commitment • Idealist/liberal counterpoint: anarchy isn’t as constraining as realists insist, thus the resulting problems aren’t as common, serious, or insurmountable as realists contend
  • 3. Anarchy •Definition: not chaos or disorder, but the lack of a world government above sovereign states •Implications of anarchy: •Self-help system •Enforcement •Cooperation and trust
  • 4. Anarchy •Implications of anarchy: •Self-help system: no world police •Doesn’t imply no consequences for aggressors/cheaters, but sovereign states must choose to impose these consequences •Example: anti-Iraq coalition after Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait
  • 5. Anarchy •Implications of anarchy: •Enforcement of international agreements & UN resolutions is often frustrated by state sovereignty and conflicting interests
  • 6. Anarchy •Implications of anarchy: •Cooperation and trust are difficult: no global enforcer exists to ensure states abide by treaties, and states must “assume the worst”—focusing on others’ capabilities rather than intentions
  • 7. The Security Dilemma •Definition: steps countries take to make themselves more secure can actually make them less secure in the long run •Examples: arms races (Cold War?), missile defense, alliance formation
  • 8. World Powers • Middle Powers- In international relations, a middle power is a sovereign state that is not a superpower nor a great power, but still has large or moderate influence and international recognition. • Great Powers- A great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale. • Balance of Powers- Theory suggests that national security is enhanced when military capability is distributed so that no one state is strong enough to dominate all others.
  • 9. Useful metaphor to illustrate this problem is the Prisoner’s Dilemma Game. Imagine you and another person rob a bank but are later arrested but without air-tight evidence. You are placed in separate rooms for interrogation. You are faced with a choice to confess and blame the plan on the other person with the reward of going free or keeping your mouth shut. If you both keep quiet, neither of you may be convicted. If you both confess, you may both get more lenient sentences. What would you do confess or keep quiet?
  • 10. The Security Dilemma •A result of anarchy because states must respond to capabilities rather than intentions •Offense/defense balance and ease of distinguishing offensive from defensive weaponry will affect the severity of the dilemma (Jervis)
  • 11. Problems of Credible Commitment •Definition: the difficulty states (and other actors) have in credibly (believably) promising to do something that might not be in their interests.
  • 12. Problems of Credible Commitment •Examples: •Government facing rebels promises not to seek retribution if rebels disarm •Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Israel promises not to reoccupy Palestinian territories if Palestinians accept restrictions on size of armed forces •In both of these cases, the stronger actor’s promise is not credible to the weaker
  • 13. Problems of Credible Commitment •Problem driven by anarchy because there is no higher authority above states that can enforce agreements and prevent states from acting in their self-interests
  • 14. Problems of Credible Commitment •Possible solution: have a powerful outside actor that has an interest in protecting the weaker actor guarantee the weaker actor’s security. •The stronger power becomes the enforcer an anarchic system lacks •The strong power’s commitment to intervene is believable given its interests
  • 15. Crash Course: End of the Cold War • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9HjvHZfCUI