Connection à MySQL.
zineddine.aliche.01@gmail.com
Comment se connect a un server mysql
Pour vous connecter à un serveur MySQL, vous devez avoir les informations d'identification nécessaires, y compris le nom d'utilisateur, le mot de passe et le nom du serveur. Une fois que vous avez ces informations, vous pouvez utiliser l'une des méthodes suivantes pour vous connecter :
En ligne de commande : vous pouvez vous connecter à MySQL en utilisant l'interface de ligne de commande. Ouvrez votre terminal et tapez la commande suivante :
css
Copy code
mysql -u nom_utilisateur -p -h nom_serveur
Remplacez "nom_utilisateur" par le nom d'utilisateur de votre compte MySQL, "nom_serveur" par le nom de votre serveur MySQL et "-p" par l'option pour entrer votre mot de passe.
À l'aide d'un outil de gestion de base de données : vous pouvez utiliser des outils de gestion de base de données tels que MySQL Workbench, phpMyAdmin ou Navicat pour vous connecter à un serveur MySQL. Ces outils fournissent une interface graphique pour se connecter et gérer les bases de données.
Une fois que vous êtes connecté, vous pouvez exécuter des requêtes
Connection à MySQL.
zineddine.aliche.01@gmail.com
Comment se connect a un server mysql
Pour vous connecter à un serveur MySQL, vous devez avoir les informations d'identification nécessaires, y compris le nom d'utilisateur, le mot de passe et le nom du serveur. Une fois que vous avez ces informations, vous pouvez utiliser l'une des méthodes suivantes pour vous connecter :
En ligne de commande : vous pouvez vous connecter à MySQL en utilisant l'interface de ligne de commande. Ouvrez votre terminal et tapez la commande suivante :
css
Copy code
mysql -u nom_utilisateur -p -h nom_serveur
Remplacez "nom_utilisateur" par le nom d'utilisateur de votre compte MySQL, "nom_serveur" par le nom de votre serveur MySQL et "-p" par l'option pour entrer votre mot de passe.
À l'aide d'un outil de gestion de base de données : vous pouvez utiliser des outils de gestion de base de données tels que MySQL Workbench, phpMyAdmin ou Navicat pour vous connecter à un serveur MySQL. Ces outils fournissent une interface graphique pour se connecter et gérer les bases de données.
Une fois que vous êtes connecté, vous pouvez exécuter des requêtes
Murphy: Machine learning A probabilistic perspective: Ch.9Daisuke Yoneoka
This document summarizes key concepts about the exponential family and generalized linear models (GLMs). It defines the exponential family and provides examples like the Bernoulli, multinomial, and Gaussian distributions. The exponential family has important properties like finite sufficient statistics, existence of conjugate priors, and convexity. Maximum likelihood estimation for the exponential family involves matching sample moments to population moments. Conjugate priors allow tractable Bayesian inference for the exponential family. The document outlines maximum entropy derivation of the exponential family and how GLMs can generate classifiers.
Estimation of the score vector and observed information matrix in intractable...Pierre Jacob
This document discusses methods for estimating derivatives of intractable likelihoods. It introduces shift estimators that use a normal prior distribution centered on the parameter value. As the prior variance goes to zero, the posterior mean approximates the score vector. Monte Carlo methods can be used to estimate the posterior moments and provide estimators of the score vector and observed information matrix with good asymptotic properties. Shift estimators are more robust than finite difference methods when the likelihood estimators have high variance. The methods have applications to hidden Markov models and other intractable models.
This document discusses equivariant estimation, which involves finding estimators that are invariant or equivariant under transformations of the data. Specifically:
- A statistical model is invariant under a transformation if applying the transformation to the data results in a model with the same form. This induces a transformation on the parameter space.
- For a model to be invariant, the loss function should also be invariant under a corresponding transformation of the decisions. This induces a transformation on the decision space.
- A decision problem is invariant under a transformation if the model and loss are invariant under the induced transformations on the parameter and decision spaces.
- Often a problem will be invariant under not just one transformation but a group of related transformations
SOLVING BVPs OF SINGULARLY PERTURBED DISCRETE SYSTEMSTahia ZERIZER
In this article, we study boundary value problems of a large
class of non-linear discrete systems at two-time-scales. Algorithms are given to implement asymptotic solutions for any order of approximation.
This document presents an overview of distributed online optimization over jointly connected digraphs. It discusses combining distributed convex optimization and online convex optimization frameworks. Specifically, it proposes a coordination algorithm for distributed online optimization over time-varying communication digraphs that are weight-balanced and jointly connected. The algorithm achieves sublinear regret bounds of O(sqrt(T)) under convexity and O(log(T)) under local strong convexity, using only local information and historical observations. This is an improvement over previous work that required fixed strongly connected digraphs or projection onto bounded sets.
Data fusion is the process of combining data from different sources to enhance the utility of the combined product. In remote sensing, input data sources are typically massive, noisy, and have different spatial supports and sampling characteristics. We take an inferential approach to this data fusion problem: we seek to infer a true but not directly observed spatial (or spatio-temporal) field from heterogeneous inputs. We use a statistical model to make these inferences, but like all models it is at least somewhat uncertain. In this talk, we will discuss our experiences with the impacts of these uncertainties and some potential ways addressing them.
This document summarizes generative models like VAEs and GANs. It begins with an introduction to information theory, defining key concepts like entropy and maximum likelihood estimation. It then explains generative models as estimating the joint distribution P(X,Y) compared to discriminative models estimating P(Y|X). VAEs are discussed as maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to estimate the latent variable distribution P(Z|X), allowing generation of new X values. GANs are also covered, defining their minimax game between a generator G and discriminator D, with G learning to generate samples resembling the real data distribution Pemp.
Here the concept of "TRUE" is defined according to Alfred Tarski, and the concept "OCCURING EVENT" is derived from this definition.
From here, we obtain operations on the events and properties of these operations and derive the main properties of the CLASSICAL PROB-ABILITY. PHYSICAL EVENTS are defined as the results of applying these operations to DOT EVENTS.
Next, the 3 + 1 vector of the PROBABILITY CURRENT and the EVENT STATE VECTOR are determined.
The presence in our universe of Planck's constant gives reason to\linebreak presume that our world is in a CONFINED SPACE. In such spaces, functions are presented by Fourier series. These presentations allow formulating the ENTANGLEMENT phenomenon.
Global Journal of Science Frontier Research: FMathematics and Decision Sciences Volume 18 Issue 2 Version 1.0 Year 2018
Murphy: Machine learning A probabilistic perspective: Ch.9Daisuke Yoneoka
This document summarizes key concepts about the exponential family and generalized linear models (GLMs). It defines the exponential family and provides examples like the Bernoulli, multinomial, and Gaussian distributions. The exponential family has important properties like finite sufficient statistics, existence of conjugate priors, and convexity. Maximum likelihood estimation for the exponential family involves matching sample moments to population moments. Conjugate priors allow tractable Bayesian inference for the exponential family. The document outlines maximum entropy derivation of the exponential family and how GLMs can generate classifiers.
Estimation of the score vector and observed information matrix in intractable...Pierre Jacob
This document discusses methods for estimating derivatives of intractable likelihoods. It introduces shift estimators that use a normal prior distribution centered on the parameter value. As the prior variance goes to zero, the posterior mean approximates the score vector. Monte Carlo methods can be used to estimate the posterior moments and provide estimators of the score vector and observed information matrix with good asymptotic properties. Shift estimators are more robust than finite difference methods when the likelihood estimators have high variance. The methods have applications to hidden Markov models and other intractable models.
This document discusses equivariant estimation, which involves finding estimators that are invariant or equivariant under transformations of the data. Specifically:
- A statistical model is invariant under a transformation if applying the transformation to the data results in a model with the same form. This induces a transformation on the parameter space.
- For a model to be invariant, the loss function should also be invariant under a corresponding transformation of the decisions. This induces a transformation on the decision space.
- A decision problem is invariant under a transformation if the model and loss are invariant under the induced transformations on the parameter and decision spaces.
- Often a problem will be invariant under not just one transformation but a group of related transformations
SOLVING BVPs OF SINGULARLY PERTURBED DISCRETE SYSTEMSTahia ZERIZER
In this article, we study boundary value problems of a large
class of non-linear discrete systems at two-time-scales. Algorithms are given to implement asymptotic solutions for any order of approximation.
This document presents an overview of distributed online optimization over jointly connected digraphs. It discusses combining distributed convex optimization and online convex optimization frameworks. Specifically, it proposes a coordination algorithm for distributed online optimization over time-varying communication digraphs that are weight-balanced and jointly connected. The algorithm achieves sublinear regret bounds of O(sqrt(T)) under convexity and O(log(T)) under local strong convexity, using only local information and historical observations. This is an improvement over previous work that required fixed strongly connected digraphs or projection onto bounded sets.
Data fusion is the process of combining data from different sources to enhance the utility of the combined product. In remote sensing, input data sources are typically massive, noisy, and have different spatial supports and sampling characteristics. We take an inferential approach to this data fusion problem: we seek to infer a true but not directly observed spatial (or spatio-temporal) field from heterogeneous inputs. We use a statistical model to make these inferences, but like all models it is at least somewhat uncertain. In this talk, we will discuss our experiences with the impacts of these uncertainties and some potential ways addressing them.
This document summarizes generative models like VAEs and GANs. It begins with an introduction to information theory, defining key concepts like entropy and maximum likelihood estimation. It then explains generative models as estimating the joint distribution P(X,Y) compared to discriminative models estimating P(Y|X). VAEs are discussed as maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to estimate the latent variable distribution P(Z|X), allowing generation of new X values. GANs are also covered, defining their minimax game between a generator G and discriminator D, with G learning to generate samples resembling the real data distribution Pemp.
Here the concept of "TRUE" is defined according to Alfred Tarski, and the concept "OCCURING EVENT" is derived from this definition.
From here, we obtain operations on the events and properties of these operations and derive the main properties of the CLASSICAL PROB-ABILITY. PHYSICAL EVENTS are defined as the results of applying these operations to DOT EVENTS.
Next, the 3 + 1 vector of the PROBABILITY CURRENT and the EVENT STATE VECTOR are determined.
The presence in our universe of Planck's constant gives reason to\linebreak presume that our world is in a CONFINED SPACE. In such spaces, functions are presented by Fourier series. These presentations allow formulating the ENTANGLEMENT phenomenon.
Global Journal of Science Frontier Research: FMathematics and Decision Sciences Volume 18 Issue 2 Version 1.0 Year 2018
Runtime Analysis of Population-based Evolutionary AlgorithmsPer Kristian Lehre
Populations are at the heart of evolutionary algorithms (EAs). They provide the genetic variation which selection acts upon. A complete picture of EAs can
only be obtained if we understand their population dynamics. A rich theory on runtime analysis (also called time-complexity analysis) of EAs has been
developed over the last 20 years. The goal of this theory is to show, via rigorous mathematical means, how the performance of EAs depends on their
parameter settings and the characteristics of the underlying fitness landscapes. Initially, runtime analysis of EAs was mostly restricted to
simplified EAs that do not employ large populations, such as the (1+1) EA. This tutorial introduces more recent techniques that enable runtime
analysis of EAs with realistic population sizes.
The tutorial begins with a brief overview of the population‐based EAs that are covered by the techniques. We recall the common stochastic selection
mechanisms and how to measure the selection pressure they induce. The main part of the tutorial covers in detail widely applicable techniques tailored to
the analysis of populations.
To illustrate how these techniques can be applied, we consider several fundamental questions: When are populations necessary for efficient
optimisation with EAs? What is the appropriate balance between exploration and exploitation and how does this depend on relationships between mutation and
selection rates? What determines an EA's tolerance for uncertainty, e.g. in form of noisy or partially available fitness?
Runtime Analysis of Population-based Evolutionary AlgorithmsPK Lehre
Populations are at the heart of evolutionary algorithms (EAs). They provide the genetic variation which selection acts upon. A complete picture of EAs can only be obtained if we understand their population dynamics. A rich theory on runtime analysis (also called time-complexity analysis) of EAs has been developed over the last 20 years. The goal of this theory is to show, via rigorous mathematical means, how the performance of EAs depends on their parameter settings and the characteristics of the underlying fitness landscapes. Initially, runtime analysis of EAs was mostly restricted to simplified EAs that do not employ large populations, such as the (1+1) EA. This tutorial introduces more recent techniques that enable runtime analysis of EAs with realistic population sizes.
The tutorial begins with a brief overview of the population‐based EAs that are covered by the techniques. We recall the common stochastic selection mechanisms and how to measure the selection pressure they induce. The main part of the tutorial covers in detail widely applicable techniques tailored to the analysis of populations. We discuss random family trees and branching processes, drift and concentration of measure in populations, and level‐based analyses.
To illustrate how these techniques can be applied, we consider several fundamental questions: When are populations necessary for efficient optimisation with EAs? What is the appropriate balance between exploration and exploitation and how does this depend on relationships between mutation and selection rates? What determines an EA's tolerance for uncertainty, e.g. in form of noisy or partially available fitness?
This tutorial was presented at the 2015 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation at Sendai, Japan, May 25th 2015.
Inference for stochastic differential equations via approximate Bayesian comp...Umberto Picchini
Despite the title the methods are appropriate for more general dynamical models (including state-space models). Presentation given at Nordstat 2012, Umeå. Relevant research paper at http://arxiv.org/abs/1204.5459 and software code at https://sourceforge.net/projects/abc-sde/
ABC with data cloning for MLE in state space modelsUmberto Picchini
An application of the "data cloning" method for parameter estimation via MLE aided by Approximate Bayesian Computation. The relevant paper is http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.06318
This document provides an introduction to probability, conditional probability, and random variables. It defines key concepts such as sample space, simple events, probability distribution, discrete and continuous random variables, and their properties including mean, variance, and Bernoulli trials. Examples are given for each concept to illustrate their calculation and application to experiments with outcomes that are either certain or random.
Quantitatively describe inherently random quantities using the methods of probability and statistics
Plot random data using a relative frequency histogram, cumulative frequency histogram and probability plot
Use the method of moments to fit a probability distribution.
Use frequency analysis to calculate flood flows of a given return period
Calculate the probability and risk associated with hydrologic events.
This document provides a probability cheatsheet compiled by William Chen and Joe Blitzstein with contributions from others. It is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 and contains information on topics like counting rules, probability definitions, random variables, expectations, independence, and more. The cheatsheet is designed to summarize essential concepts in probability.
This document presents a Bayesian joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes that allows for subpopulation heterogeneity using latent variables. It begins with motivational examples in HIV and prostate cancer research. It then reviews existing joint modeling approaches before introducing a new latent process model that models the longitudinal and survival outcomes conditional on a shared latent process. The document describes prior distributions, a Gibbs sampling algorithm, and simulation studies to evaluate the model under both Gaussian and non-Gaussian longitudinal distributions.
1. The document discusses basic concepts in probability and statistics, including sample spaces, events, probability distributions, and random variables.
2. Key concepts are explained such as independent and conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, and common probability distributions like the uniform and normal distributions.
3. Statistical analysis methods are introduced including how to estimate the mean and variance from samples from a distribution.
1. The document summarizes key concepts in probability and statistics including Venn diagrams, conditional probability, random variables, probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, the normal distribution, and the standard normal distribution.
2. It provides examples of using these concepts to calculate probabilities for various scenarios involving insurance policyholders, discrete and continuous random variables, and reaction times.
3. Key formulas are presented for probability, density functions, cumulative distribution functions, and transforming a normal distribution to the standard normal distribution for finding probabilities using tables.
Accounting for uncertainty is a crucial component in decision making (e.g., classification) because of ambiguity in our measurements.
Probability theory is the proper mechanism for accounting for uncertainty.
Sequential experimentation in clinical trialsSpringer
This chapter discusses time-sequential clinical trial designs where the primary endpoint is survival time. It begins with an overview of survival analysis methodology, which must be extended to account for the sequential nature of interim analyses in time-sequential trials. The seminal Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT) is described as an example of an early time-sequential trial. Key developments following BHAT include methods that account for two time scales: the information accumulated over time and calendar time of interim analyses. Nelson-Aalen and Kaplan-Meier estimators are also summarized as tools for survival analysis in time-sequential settings.
TopicRNN is a generative model for documents that:
1. Draws a topic vector from a standard normal distribution and uses it to generate words in a document.
2. Computes a lower bound on the log marginal likelihood of words and stop word indicators.
3. Approximates the expected values in the lower bound using samples from an inference network that models the approximate posterior distribution over topics.
STOMA FULL SLIDE (probability of IISc bangalore)2010111
This document provides an overview of a course on stochastic models and applications. It includes:
- A list of reference materials for the course.
- Background prerequisites in calculus, matrix theory, and basic probability concepts.
- Details on course grading with midterm exams, assignments, and a final exam comprising the overall grade.
- An introduction to probability theory and examples of applications in engineering, statistics, and algorithms.
- A review of basic probability concepts like sample space, events, axioms, and examples of finite and countably infinite sample spaces.
The document describes the error correction model (ECM) version of Granger causality testing for determining the causal relationship between two non-stationary time series variables. It involves first testing for cointegration between the variables using the Johansen test or Engle-Granger approach. If cointegrated, the ECM version estimates an error correction model and performs Granger causality tests to examine short-run, long-run, and strong causality. The procedure and hypotheses for each test are provided along with the method for calculating the relevant F-statistics.
Seminar Talk: Multilevel Hybrid Split Step Implicit Tau-Leap for Stochastic R...Chiheb Ben Hammouda
The document describes a multilevel hybrid split-step implicit tau-leap method for simulating stochastic reaction networks. It begins with background on modeling biochemical reaction networks stochastically. It then discusses challenges with existing simulation methods like the chemical master equation and stochastic simulation algorithm. The document introduces the split-step implicit tau-leap method as an improvement over explicit tau-leap for stiff systems. It proposes a multilevel Monte Carlo estimator using this method to efficiently estimate expectations of observables with near-optimal computational work.
Principles of Actuarial Science Chapter 2ssuser8226b2
This document provides an overview of probability concepts relevant to actuarial science including independence, geometric, exponential, normal, log-normal, gambler's ruin, and simulation distributions. It discusses independence of events, calculating probabilities of sequences of events, and defines key probability distributions with their formulas and properties. It also provides an example of calculating the probability of ruin in a gambling scenario and discusses using simulation to model probabilistic problems.
This document provides a probability cheatsheet compiled by William Chen and Joe Blitzstein with contributions from others. It is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 and contains information on topics like counting rules, probability definitions, random variables, moments, and more. The cheatsheet is regularly updated with comments and suggestions submitted through a GitHub repository.
The document discusses distributed online convex optimization algorithms for coordinating multiple agents. It presents a coordination algorithm where each agent performs proportional-integral feedback to minimize local objectives while sharing information with neighbors over noisy communication channels. The algorithm is proven to achieve exponential convergence of second moments to the optimal solution and an ultimate bound on the error that depends on the noise level. Simulation results on a medical diagnosis example are also presented to illustrate the algorithm's behavior.
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Databasejavier ramirez
Talk Delivered at Valencia Codes Meetup 2024-06.
Traditionally, databases have treated timestamps just as another data type. However, when performing real-time analytics, timestamps should be first class citizens and we need rich time semantics to get the most out of our data. We also need to deal with ever growing datasets while keeping performant, which is as fun as it sounds.
It is no wonder time-series databases are now more popular than ever before. Join me in this session to learn about the internal architecture and building blocks of QuestDB, an open source time-series database designed for speed. We will also review a history of some of the changes we have gone over the past two years to deal with late and unordered data, non-blocking writes, read-replicas, or faster batch ingestion.
Runtime Analysis of Population-based Evolutionary AlgorithmsPer Kristian Lehre
Populations are at the heart of evolutionary algorithms (EAs). They provide the genetic variation which selection acts upon. A complete picture of EAs can
only be obtained if we understand their population dynamics. A rich theory on runtime analysis (also called time-complexity analysis) of EAs has been
developed over the last 20 years. The goal of this theory is to show, via rigorous mathematical means, how the performance of EAs depends on their
parameter settings and the characteristics of the underlying fitness landscapes. Initially, runtime analysis of EAs was mostly restricted to
simplified EAs that do not employ large populations, such as the (1+1) EA. This tutorial introduces more recent techniques that enable runtime
analysis of EAs with realistic population sizes.
The tutorial begins with a brief overview of the population‐based EAs that are covered by the techniques. We recall the common stochastic selection
mechanisms and how to measure the selection pressure they induce. The main part of the tutorial covers in detail widely applicable techniques tailored to
the analysis of populations.
To illustrate how these techniques can be applied, we consider several fundamental questions: When are populations necessary for efficient
optimisation with EAs? What is the appropriate balance between exploration and exploitation and how does this depend on relationships between mutation and
selection rates? What determines an EA's tolerance for uncertainty, e.g. in form of noisy or partially available fitness?
Runtime Analysis of Population-based Evolutionary AlgorithmsPK Lehre
Populations are at the heart of evolutionary algorithms (EAs). They provide the genetic variation which selection acts upon. A complete picture of EAs can only be obtained if we understand their population dynamics. A rich theory on runtime analysis (also called time-complexity analysis) of EAs has been developed over the last 20 years. The goal of this theory is to show, via rigorous mathematical means, how the performance of EAs depends on their parameter settings and the characteristics of the underlying fitness landscapes. Initially, runtime analysis of EAs was mostly restricted to simplified EAs that do not employ large populations, such as the (1+1) EA. This tutorial introduces more recent techniques that enable runtime analysis of EAs with realistic population sizes.
The tutorial begins with a brief overview of the population‐based EAs that are covered by the techniques. We recall the common stochastic selection mechanisms and how to measure the selection pressure they induce. The main part of the tutorial covers in detail widely applicable techniques tailored to the analysis of populations. We discuss random family trees and branching processes, drift and concentration of measure in populations, and level‐based analyses.
To illustrate how these techniques can be applied, we consider several fundamental questions: When are populations necessary for efficient optimisation with EAs? What is the appropriate balance between exploration and exploitation and how does this depend on relationships between mutation and selection rates? What determines an EA's tolerance for uncertainty, e.g. in form of noisy or partially available fitness?
This tutorial was presented at the 2015 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation at Sendai, Japan, May 25th 2015.
Inference for stochastic differential equations via approximate Bayesian comp...Umberto Picchini
Despite the title the methods are appropriate for more general dynamical models (including state-space models). Presentation given at Nordstat 2012, Umeå. Relevant research paper at http://arxiv.org/abs/1204.5459 and software code at https://sourceforge.net/projects/abc-sde/
ABC with data cloning for MLE in state space modelsUmberto Picchini
An application of the "data cloning" method for parameter estimation via MLE aided by Approximate Bayesian Computation. The relevant paper is http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.06318
This document provides an introduction to probability, conditional probability, and random variables. It defines key concepts such as sample space, simple events, probability distribution, discrete and continuous random variables, and their properties including mean, variance, and Bernoulli trials. Examples are given for each concept to illustrate their calculation and application to experiments with outcomes that are either certain or random.
Quantitatively describe inherently random quantities using the methods of probability and statistics
Plot random data using a relative frequency histogram, cumulative frequency histogram and probability plot
Use the method of moments to fit a probability distribution.
Use frequency analysis to calculate flood flows of a given return period
Calculate the probability and risk associated with hydrologic events.
This document provides a probability cheatsheet compiled by William Chen and Joe Blitzstein with contributions from others. It is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 and contains information on topics like counting rules, probability definitions, random variables, expectations, independence, and more. The cheatsheet is designed to summarize essential concepts in probability.
This document presents a Bayesian joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes that allows for subpopulation heterogeneity using latent variables. It begins with motivational examples in HIV and prostate cancer research. It then reviews existing joint modeling approaches before introducing a new latent process model that models the longitudinal and survival outcomes conditional on a shared latent process. The document describes prior distributions, a Gibbs sampling algorithm, and simulation studies to evaluate the model under both Gaussian and non-Gaussian longitudinal distributions.
1. The document discusses basic concepts in probability and statistics, including sample spaces, events, probability distributions, and random variables.
2. Key concepts are explained such as independent and conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, and common probability distributions like the uniform and normal distributions.
3. Statistical analysis methods are introduced including how to estimate the mean and variance from samples from a distribution.
1. The document summarizes key concepts in probability and statistics including Venn diagrams, conditional probability, random variables, probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, the normal distribution, and the standard normal distribution.
2. It provides examples of using these concepts to calculate probabilities for various scenarios involving insurance policyholders, discrete and continuous random variables, and reaction times.
3. Key formulas are presented for probability, density functions, cumulative distribution functions, and transforming a normal distribution to the standard normal distribution for finding probabilities using tables.
Accounting for uncertainty is a crucial component in decision making (e.g., classification) because of ambiguity in our measurements.
Probability theory is the proper mechanism for accounting for uncertainty.
Sequential experimentation in clinical trialsSpringer
This chapter discusses time-sequential clinical trial designs where the primary endpoint is survival time. It begins with an overview of survival analysis methodology, which must be extended to account for the sequential nature of interim analyses in time-sequential trials. The seminal Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT) is described as an example of an early time-sequential trial. Key developments following BHAT include methods that account for two time scales: the information accumulated over time and calendar time of interim analyses. Nelson-Aalen and Kaplan-Meier estimators are also summarized as tools for survival analysis in time-sequential settings.
TopicRNN is a generative model for documents that:
1. Draws a topic vector from a standard normal distribution and uses it to generate words in a document.
2. Computes a lower bound on the log marginal likelihood of words and stop word indicators.
3. Approximates the expected values in the lower bound using samples from an inference network that models the approximate posterior distribution over topics.
STOMA FULL SLIDE (probability of IISc bangalore)2010111
This document provides an overview of a course on stochastic models and applications. It includes:
- A list of reference materials for the course.
- Background prerequisites in calculus, matrix theory, and basic probability concepts.
- Details on course grading with midterm exams, assignments, and a final exam comprising the overall grade.
- An introduction to probability theory and examples of applications in engineering, statistics, and algorithms.
- A review of basic probability concepts like sample space, events, axioms, and examples of finite and countably infinite sample spaces.
The document describes the error correction model (ECM) version of Granger causality testing for determining the causal relationship between two non-stationary time series variables. It involves first testing for cointegration between the variables using the Johansen test or Engle-Granger approach. If cointegrated, the ECM version estimates an error correction model and performs Granger causality tests to examine short-run, long-run, and strong causality. The procedure and hypotheses for each test are provided along with the method for calculating the relevant F-statistics.
Seminar Talk: Multilevel Hybrid Split Step Implicit Tau-Leap for Stochastic R...Chiheb Ben Hammouda
The document describes a multilevel hybrid split-step implicit tau-leap method for simulating stochastic reaction networks. It begins with background on modeling biochemical reaction networks stochastically. It then discusses challenges with existing simulation methods like the chemical master equation and stochastic simulation algorithm. The document introduces the split-step implicit tau-leap method as an improvement over explicit tau-leap for stiff systems. It proposes a multilevel Monte Carlo estimator using this method to efficiently estimate expectations of observables with near-optimal computational work.
Principles of Actuarial Science Chapter 2ssuser8226b2
This document provides an overview of probability concepts relevant to actuarial science including independence, geometric, exponential, normal, log-normal, gambler's ruin, and simulation distributions. It discusses independence of events, calculating probabilities of sequences of events, and defines key probability distributions with their formulas and properties. It also provides an example of calculating the probability of ruin in a gambling scenario and discusses using simulation to model probabilistic problems.
This document provides a probability cheatsheet compiled by William Chen and Joe Blitzstein with contributions from others. It is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 and contains information on topics like counting rules, probability definitions, random variables, moments, and more. The cheatsheet is regularly updated with comments and suggestions submitted through a GitHub repository.
The document discusses distributed online convex optimization algorithms for coordinating multiple agents. It presents a coordination algorithm where each agent performs proportional-integral feedback to minimize local objectives while sharing information with neighbors over noisy communication channels. The algorithm is proven to achieve exponential convergence of second moments to the optimal solution and an ultimate bound on the error that depends on the noise level. Simulation results on a medical diagnosis example are also presented to illustrate the algorithm's behavior.
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Databasejavier ramirez
Talk Delivered at Valencia Codes Meetup 2024-06.
Traditionally, databases have treated timestamps just as another data type. However, when performing real-time analytics, timestamps should be first class citizens and we need rich time semantics to get the most out of our data. We also need to deal with ever growing datasets while keeping performant, which is as fun as it sounds.
It is no wonder time-series databases are now more popular than ever before. Join me in this session to learn about the internal architecture and building blocks of QuestDB, an open source time-series database designed for speed. We will also review a history of some of the changes we have gone over the past two years to deal with late and unordered data, non-blocking writes, read-replicas, or faster batch ingestion.
06-04-2024 - NYC Tech Week - Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
https://www.meetup.com/unstructured-data-meetup-new-york/
This meetup is for people working in unstructured data. Speakers will come present about related topics such as vector databases, LLMs, and managing data at scale. The intended audience of this group includes roles like machine learning engineers, data scientists, data engineers, software engineers, and PMs.This meetup was formerly Milvus Meetup, and is sponsored by Zilliz maintainers of Milvus.
The Ipsos - AI - Monitor 2024 Report.pdfSocial Samosa
According to Ipsos AI Monitor's 2024 report, 65% Indians said that products and services using AI have profoundly changed their daily life in the past 3-5 years.
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...sameer shah
"Join us for STATATHON, a dynamic 2-day event dedicated to exploring statistical knowledge and its real-world applications. From theory to practice, participants engage in intensive learning sessions, workshops, and challenges, fostering a deeper understanding of statistical methodologies and their significance in various fields."
Learn SQL from basic queries to Advance queriesmanishkhaire30
Dive into the world of data analysis with our comprehensive guide on mastering SQL! This presentation offers a practical approach to learning SQL, focusing on real-world applications and hands-on practice. Whether you're a beginner or looking to sharpen your skills, this guide provides the tools you need to extract, analyze, and interpret data effectively.
Key Highlights:
Foundations of SQL: Understand the basics of SQL, including data retrieval, filtering, and aggregation.
Advanced Queries: Learn to craft complex queries to uncover deep insights from your data.
Data Trends and Patterns: Discover how to identify and interpret trends and patterns in your datasets.
Practical Examples: Follow step-by-step examples to apply SQL techniques in real-world scenarios.
Actionable Insights: Gain the skills to derive actionable insights that drive informed decision-making.
Join us on this journey to enhance your data analysis capabilities and unlock the full potential of SQL. Perfect for data enthusiasts, analysts, and anyone eager to harness the power of data!
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#SQL #Views #Privacy #Compliance #DataLake
Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...Aggregage
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3. Probability Basics
Begin with a set Ω-the sample space; e.g. 6 possible rolls of a die.
ω 2 Ω is a sample point/possible event.
A probability space or probability model is a sample space with an
assignment P (ω) for every ω 2 Ω s.t.
0 P (ω) 1 and ∑
ω2Ω
P (ω) = 1;
e.g. for a die
P (1) = P (2) = P (3) = P (4) = P (5) = P (6) = 1/6.
An event A is any subset of Ω
P (A) = ∑
ω2A
P (ω)
e.g. P (die roll < 3) = P (1) + P (2) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3.
AD () January 2008 3 / 35
4. Random Variables
A random variable is loosely speaking a function from sample points
to some range; e.g. the reals.
P induces a probability distribution for any r.v. X :
P (X = x) = ∑
fω2Ω:X (ω)=xg
P (ω)
e.g.
P (Odd = true) = P (1) + P (3) + P (5) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/2.
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5. Why use probability?
“Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to
calculation” — Pierre Laplace, 1812.
In 1931, de Finetti proved that it is irrational to have beliefs that
violate these axioms, in the following sense:
If you bet in accordance with your beliefs, but your beliefs violate the
axioms, then you can be guaranteed to lose money to an opponent
whose beliefs more accurately re‡ect the true state of the world.
(Here, “betting” and “money” are proxies for “decision making” and
“utilities”.)
What if you refuse to bet? This is like refusing to allow time to pass:
every action (including inaction) is a bet.
Various other arguments (Cox, Savage).
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6. Probability for continuous variables
We typically do not work with probability distributions but with
densities.
We have
P (X 2 A) =
Z
A
pX (x) dx.
so Z
Ω
pX (x) dx = 1
We have
P (X 2 [x, x + δx]) pX (x) δx
Warning: A density evaluated at a point can be bigger than 1.
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7. Univariate Gaussian (Normal) density
If X N µ, σ2 then the pdf of X is de…ned as
pX (x) =
1
p
2πσ2
exp
(x µ)2
2σ2
!
We often use the precision λ = 1/σ2 instead of the variance.
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8. Statistics of a distribution
Recall that the mean and variance of a distribution are de…ned as
E (X) =
Z
xpX (x) dx
V (X) = E (X E (X))2
=
Z
(x E (X))2
pX (x) dx
For a Gaussian distribution, we have
E (X) = µ, V (X) = σ2
.
Chebyshev’
s inequality
P (jX E (X)j ε)
V (X)
ε2
.
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9. Cumulative distribution function
The cumulative distribution function is de…ned as
FX (x) = P (X x) =
Z x
∞
pX (u) du
We have
lim
x! ∞
FX (x) = 0,
lim
x!∞
FX (x) = 1.
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10. Law of large numbers
Assume you have Xi
i.i.d.
pX ( ) then
lim
n!∞
1
n
n
∑
i=1
ϕ (Xi ) = E [ϕ (X)] =
Z
ϕ (x) pX (x) dx
The result is still valid for weakly dependent random variables.
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11. Central limit theorem
Let Xi
i.i.d.
pX ( ) such that E [Xi ] = µ and V (Xi ) = σ2 then
p
n
1
n
n
∑
i=1
Xi µ
!
D
! N 0, σ2
.
This result is (too) often used to justify the Gaussian assumption
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12. Delta method
Assume we have
p
n
1
n
n
∑
i=1
Xi µ
!
D
! N 0, σ2
Then we have
p
n g
1
n
n
∑
i=1
Xi
!
g (µ)
!
D
! N 0, g0
(µ)
2
σ2
This follows from the Taylor’
s expansion
g
1
n
n
∑
i=1
Xi
!
g (µ) + g0
(µ)
1
n
n
∑
i=1
Xi µ
!
+ o
1
n
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13. Prior probability
Consider the following random variables Sick2 fyes,nog and
Weather2 fsunny,rain,cloudy,snowg
We can set a prior probability on these random variables; e.g.
P (Sick = yes) = 1 P (Sick = no) = 0.1,
P (Weather) = (0.72, 0.1, 0.08, 0.1)
Obviously we cannot answer questions like
P (Sick = yesj Weather = rainy)
as long as we don’
t de…ne an appropriate distribution.
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14. Joint probability distributions
We need to assign a probability to each sample point
For (Weather, Sick), we have to consider 4 2 events; e.g.
Weather / Sick sunny rainy cloudy snow
yes 0.144 0.02 0.016 0.02
no 0.576 0.08 0.064 0.08
From this probability distribution, we can compute probabilities of the
form P (Sick = yesj Weather = rainy) .
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15. Bayes’rule
We have
P (x, y) = P (xj y) P (y) = P (yj x) P (x)
It follows that
P (xj y) =
P (x, y)
P (y)
=
P (yj x) P (x)
∑x P (yj x) P (x)
We have
P (Sick = yesj Weather = rainy) =
P (Sick = yes,Weather = rainy)
P (Weather = rainy)
=
0.02
0.02 + 0.08
= 0.2
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16. Example
Useful for assessing diagnostic prob from causal prob
P (Causej E¤ect) =
P (E¤ectj Cause) P (Cause)
P (E¤ect)
Let M be meningitis, S be sti¤ neck:
P (mj s) =
P (sj m) P (m)
P (s)
=
0.8 0.0001
0.1
= 0.0008
Be careful to subtle exchanging of P (Aj B) for P (Bj A).
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17. Example
Prosecutor’
s Fallacy. A zealous prosecutor has collected an evidence
and has an expert testify that the probability of …nding this evidence
if the accused were innocent is one-in-a-million. The prosecutor
concludes that the probability of the accused being innocent is
one-in-a-million.
This is WRONG.
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18. Assume no other evidence is available and the population is of 10
million people.
De…ning A =“The accused is guilty” then P (A) = 10 7.
De…ning B =“Finding this evidence” then P (Bj A) = 1 &
P Bj A = 10 6.
Bayes formula yields
P (Aj B) =
P (Bj A) P (A)
P (Bj A) P (A) + P Bj A P A
=
10 7
10 7 + 10 6 (1 10 7)
0.1.
Real-life Example: Sally Clark was condemned in the UK (The RSS
pointed out the mistake). Her conviction was eventually quashed (on
other grounds).
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19. You feel sick and your GP thinks you might have contracted a rare
disease (0.01% of the population has the disease).
A test is available but not perfect.
If a tested patient has the disease, 100% of the time the test will be
positive.
If a tested patient does not have the diseases, 95% of the time the test
will be negative (5% false positive).
Your test is positive, should you really care?
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20. Let A be the event that the patient has the disease and B be the
event that the test returns a positive result
P (Aj B) =
1 0.0001
1 0.0001 + 0.05 0.9999
0.002
Such a test would be a complete waste of money for you or the
National Health System.
A similar question was asked to 60 students and sta¤ at Harvard
Medical School: 18% got the right answer, the modal response was
95%!
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21. “General”Bayesian framework
Assume you have some unknown parameter θ and some data D.
The unknown parameters are now considered RANDOM of prior
density p (θ)
The likelihood of the observation D is p (Dj θ) .
The posterior is given by
p (θj D) =
p (Dj θ) p (θ)
p (D)
where
p (D) =
Z
p (Dj θ) p (θ) dθ
p (D) is called the marginal likelihood or evidence.
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22. Bayesian interpretation of probability
In the Bayesian approach, probability describes degrees of belief,
instead of limiting frequencies.
The selection of a prior has an obvious impact on the inference
results! However, Bayesian statisticians are honest about it.
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23. Bayesian inference involves passing from a prior p (θ) to a posterior
p (θj D) .We might expect that because the posterior incorporates the
information from the data, it will be less variable than the prior.
We have the following identities
E [θ] = E [E [θj D]] ,
V [θ] = E [V [θj D]] + V [E [θj D]] .
It means that, on average (over the realizations of the data X) we
expect the conditional expectation E [θj D] to be equal to E [θ] and
the posterior variance to be on average smaller than the prior variance
by an amount that depend on the variations in posterior means over
the distribution of possible data.
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24. If (θ, X) are two scalar random variables then we have
V [θ] = E [V [θj D]] + V [E [θj D]] .
Proof:
V [θ] = E θ2
E (θ)2
= E E θ2
D (E (E (θj D)))2
= E E θ2
D E (E (θj D))2
+E (E (θj D))2
(E (E (θj D)))2
= E (V (θj X)) + V (E (θj X)) .
Such results appear attractive but one should be careful. Here there is
an underlying assumption that the observations are indeed distributed
according to p (D) .
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25. Frequentist interpretation of probability
Probabilities are objective properties of the real world, and refer to
limiting relative frequencies (e.g. number of times I have observed
heads.).
Problem. How do you attribute a probability to the following event
“There will be a major earthquake in Tokyo on the 27th April 2013”?
Hence in most cases θ is assumed unknown but …xed.
We then typically compute point estimates of the form b
θ = ϕ (D)
which are designed to have various desirable quantities when averaged
over future data D0 (assumed to be drawn from the “true”
distribution).
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26. Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Suppose we have Xi
i.i.d.
p ( j θ) for i = 1, ..., N then
L (θ) = p (Dj θ) =
N
∏
i=1
p (xi j θ) .
The MLE is de…ned as
b
θ = arg max L (θ)
= arg max l (θ)
where
l (θ) = log L (θ) =
N
∑
i=1
log p (xi j θ) .
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27. MLE for 1D Gaussian
Consider Xi
i.i.d.
N µ, σ2 then
p Dj µ, σ2
=
N
∏
i=1
N xi ; µ, σ2
so
l (θ) =
N
2
log (2π)
N
2
log σ2 1
2σ2
N
∑
i=1
(xi µ)2
Setting
∂l(θ)
∂µ = ∂l(θ)
∂σ2 = 0 yields
b
µML =
1
N
N
∑
i=1
xi ,
c
σ2
ML =
1
N
N
∑
i=1
(xi b
µML)2
.
We have E [b
µML] = µ and E
h
c
σ2
ML
i
= N
N 1 σ2.
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28. Consistent estimators
De…nition. A sequence of estimators b
θN = b
θN (X1, ..., XN ) is consistent
for the parameter θ if, for every ε > 0 and every θ 2 Θ
lim
N!∞
Pθ
b
θN θ < ε = 1 (equivalently lim
N!∞
Pθ
b
θN θ ε = 0).
Example: Consider Xi
i.i.d.
N (µ, 1) and b
µN = 1
N ∑N
i=1 Xi then
b
µN N µ, N 1 and
Pθ
b
θN θ < ε =
Z ε
p
N
ε
p
N
1
p
2π
exp
u2
2
du ! 1.
It is possible to avoid this calculations and use instead Chebychev’
s
inequality
Pθ
b
θN θ ε = Pθ
b
θn θ
2
ε2
Eθ
b
θn θ
2
ε2
where Eθ
b
θn θ
2
= varθ
b
θn + Eθ
b
θn θ
2
.
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29. Example of inconsistent MLE (Fisher)
(Xi , Yi ) N
µi
µi
,
σ2 0
0 σ2 .
The likelihood function is given by
L (θ) =
1
(2πσ2)n exp
1
2σ2
n
∑
i=1
h
(xi µi )2
+ (yi µi )2
i
!
We obtain
l (θ) = cste n log σ2
1
2σ2
"
2
n
∑
i=1
xi + yi
2
µi
2
+
1
2
n
∑
i=1
(xi yi )2
#
.
We have
b
µi =
xi + yi
2
, c
σ2 =
∑n
i=1 (xi yi )2
4n
!
σ2
2
.
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30. Consistency of the MLE
Kullback-Leibler Distance: For any density f , g
D (f , g) =
Z
f (x) log
f (x)
g (x)
dx
We have
D (f , g) 0 and D (f , f ) = 0.
Indeed
D (f , g) =
Z
f (x) log
g (x)
f (x)
dx
Z
f (x)
g (x)
f (x)
1 dx = 0
D (f , g) is a very useful ‘
distance’and appears in many di¤erent
contexts.
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31. Sketch of consistency of the MLE
Assume the pdfs f (xj θ) have common support for all θ and
p (xj θ) 6= p xj θ0
for θ 6= θ0
; i.e. Sθ = fx : p (xj θ) > 0g is
independent of θ.
Denote
MN (θ) =
1
N
N
∑
i=1
log
p (Xi j θ)
p (Xi j θ )
As the MLE b
θn maximizes L (θ), it also maximizes MN (θ) .
Assume Xi
i.i.d.
p ( j θ ). Note that by the law of large numbers
MN (θ) converges to
Eθ log
p (Xj θ)
p (Xj θ )
=
Z
p (xj θ ) log
p (xj θ)
p (xj θ )
dx
= D (p ( j θ ) , p ( j θ)) := M (θ) .
Hence, MN (θ) D (p ( j θ ) , p ( j θ)) which is maximized for θ
so we expect that its maximizer will converge towards θ .
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32. Asymptotic Normality
Assuming b
θN is a consistent estimate of θ , we have under regularity
assumptions
p
N b
θN θ ) N 0, [I (θ )] 1
where
[I (θ)]k,l = E
∂2 log p (xj θ)
∂θk ∂θl
We can estimate I (θ ) through
[I (θ )]k,l =
1
N
N
∑
i=1
∂2 log p (Xi j θ)
∂θk ∂θl b
θN
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33. Sketch of the proof
We have
0 = l0 b
θN l0
(θ ) + b
θN θ l00
(θ )
)
p
N b
θN θ =
1
p
N
l0 (θ )
1
N l00 (θ )
Now l0 (θ ) = ∑n
i=1
∂ log p( Xi jθ)
∂θ θ
where Eθ
h
∂ log p( Xi jθ)
∂θ θ
i
= 0 and
varθ
h
∂ log p( Xi jθ)
∂θ θ
i
= I (θ ) so the CLT tells us that
1
p
N
l0
(θ )
D
! N (0, I (θ ))
where by the law of large numbers
1
N
l00
(θ ) =
1
N
N
∑
i=1
∂2 log p (Xi j θ)
∂θk ∂θl θ
! I (θ ) .
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34. Frequentist con…dence intervals
The MLE being approximately Gaussian, it is possible to de…ne
(approximate) con…dence intervals.
However be careful, “θ has a 95% con…dence interval of [a, b]” does
NOT mean that P (θ 2 [a, b]j D) = 0.95.
It means
PD0 P( jD) θ 2 a D0
, b D0
= 0.95
i.e., if we were to repeat the experiment, then 95% of the time, the
true parameter would be in that interval. This does not mean that we
believe it is in that interval given the actual data D we have observed.
AD () January 2008 34 / 35
35. Bayesian statistics as an unifying approach
In my opinion, the Bayesian approach is much simpler and more
natural than classical statistics.
Once you have de…ned a Bayesian model, everything follows naturally.
De…ning a Bayesian model requires specifying a prior distribution, but
this assumption is clearly stated.
For many years, Bayesian statistics could not be implemented for all
but the simple models but now numerous algorithms have been
proposed to perform approximate inference.
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