This document summarizes a methodology for quantifying the vulnerability of urban areas to terrorist attacks using a place-based vulnerability index and statistical analysis of historical terrorist incident data. The methodology introduces a benchmark approach to distinguish between high and low levels of urban vulnerability. A generalized linear statistical model is used to study the relationship between different urban characteristics and historical terrorist incidents. The results allow the characterization of a locality's vulnerability to terrorism on a quantitative scale.

1. Nailing Down
Vulnerability
Konstantin Greger

2. Literature Review
Risk A
nalysis,
Vol. 27
, No. 6,
2007
DOI: 10
Benchm .1111/j.1
539-6924
Piegorsch, W. W., to Terr ark Analysis
.2007.00
977.x
orist In f
cidents or Quantifyin
g Urb an Vuln
Walter
W. Pieg erabilit
o rsch, 1 ∗
Susan L
y
Cutter, S. L. & Hardisty,
. Cutte
r, 2 and
Frank H
ardisty 3
We desc
ri
to terror be a quantitati
F. (2007). Benchmark
is ve
and rela t attack, using methodology
ted hum a place- to
ships be an casu based vu characterize
tween al th
metric vulnerab ties. Via gene lnerability inde e vulnerabili
significa ility an ralized x and a ty of U.S
terroris nt d terror lin databa . urban
t events ly describes bo ist even ear statistical se of te
rror
centers
from ap in thes th ts, and m
plicatio e urban terrorist inci find that odels, we stud ist incidents
and use ns in to ce denc ou y the re
these to xicologi nters. We also e and occurr r place-based lation-
that th cal risk en vu
e benchm distinguish le assessm introduce benc ce of human ca lnerability
Analysis for Quantifying
vels of
scientifi ar
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analytic alties from
ype. translat d low ur cial risk techno
es quit ba /vulnera
e flexibl n vulnerabili bility pa logies
y from ty to te radigm
its biol rr ,
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KEY W
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bility an RDS: Bench ots to th en
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1. INT mpl ementa
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URBA UCTION: RE g model
; homel
N VUL LATIN
Urban Vulnerability to
N and secu
TO TE G
RROR ERABILITY rity; ur
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IST AC locality
lnera-
Urban TIVITY ’s level
mensio terrorism ward th of vuln
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occurren cess s very oped vu we exp y to a te
ce and , with many fa nature a mu ln loit rrori
et al., 20 erability indic a series of pre st event. To-
Jones, 20 in ct lt
06; Dei cidence of ea ors underlyin idi- 03
to bench ) whose quan
es (Bord
en et al
viously
devel-
difficult sler, 20 ch even g the tita ., 20
to disti 02 mark an
one, ex ll such a ; Reid et al., 20 t (Bogen & events, urban ar tive characteri 07; Cutter
Terrorist Incidents. Risk
planato p 04 in stics allo
provide ry com rocess down to ). While it is based o cluding terro ea’s susceptib w us
pon a n rist ilit
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Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

3. Literature Review
Social
HazardVulnerability
sn to Env
ironme
ntal
Cutter, S. L., Boruff, B.
Susan L
.C utter, U
niversity
Bryan J. of South
Boruff, Carolina
Universi
W. Lyn ty of Sou
n Shirle th Caro
y, Univ lina
ersity of
J. & Shirley, W. L.
South C
Objectiv arolina
e. Cou nty-l
construct
Social an index evel socioecon
V of so omic
data. M ulnerability In cial vulnerab and demogra
et il p
indepen hods. Using a dex (SoVI) foity to environ hic data wer
d m e
factors w ent factors that factor analytic r the United ental hazards, used to
(2003). Social
ap
Vulnerab ere placed in an accounted for proach, 42 va States based called the
ri
with th ility Index. Res additive model about 76 perce ables were red on 1990
e u u
south T most vulnerab lts. There are to compute a nt of the varian ced to 11
exas, an le coun some dis summar ce. Thes
contribu d the M ties tin y sc e
interact
te to th
e overall ississipp clustered in m ct spatial patte ore—the Social
ive natu score oft i Delta etropoli rns in th
others m re region. tan cou e SoVI,
Vulnerability to
en
oderate of social vulner are different Conclusion. T nties in the ea
the effe ability— fo ho st,
cts. some co r each county, se factors that
mponen u
Generall
y speak ts increa nderscoring the
potentia se vulner
l for lo ing, vulnerab ability;
different ss. S ince ility
to
the haza social groups, losses vary geo environmental
rds lite vulnerab g h
ility also raphically, ove azards means
Environmental Hazards.
dependin rature, r
1996, 2 g on the researc vulnerability varies over tim time, and am the
0 h e o
identific 01a). There a h orientation a as many diffe and space. Wit ng
a re n re
natural tion of conditio three main te d perspective (D nt connotati hin
o
Anderso events, an exp ns that make p nets in vulnera ow, 1992; Cu ns,
n o eo tt
measure , 2000); the a sure model (B ple or places v bility research: er,
Social Science of socie ssumpti urton, ulnerab the
tal resist on K le to
ance or that vulnerabil ates, and Wh extreme
resilienc ity is a ite, 199
e to haza soc 3;
rds (Bla ial condition,
n
Direc
South C t all correspo ikie et a a
n
grant fr arolina, Colum dence to Susa
om the bia, SC n L. Cu l., 1994
Dennis ;
Quarterly, 84(2),
Natio 292 tter,
of this Mileti, Lori Pee al Science F08 /scutter@scDepartment of
n
data. P paper, and Kat k, and Arleen oundation (C .eduS. This re Geography, U
Associatreliminary versie Field and Je A. Hill for th MS9905352). search was sup niversity of
io ei
readily sh n of Americ ions of this ffrey Vincent w r thoughtful We would like orted by a p
an
study. T are all data an Geographer paper were pre ho helped com mments on ea to thank
co
interpre he auth d codin s and th sented pile som rlier dra
tations ors are respon g information e annual Natu at the annual e of the origi fts
242-261.
and con si ra
SOCIA clusions ble for any erwith those researl Hazards Wo meetings of nal
made in rors ch rksh the
L
r2003 SCIENCE Q this pap of omission o ers who wish to ops. We will
er. r comm
by the S U
outhwes ARTERLY, Vo ission asreplicate the
tern Soci lu well as
al Scien me 84, Numb the
ce Asso er 2, Ju
ciation ne 2003
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

4. Literature Review
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Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

5. Chapter 1
Quantifying Urban
Vulnerability

6. Piegorsch et al. (2007)
• quant. methodology to characterize
vulnerability to terrorist attacks
• using a place-based vulnerability index
• and a DB of historic terrorist incidents
• study about relationship between
vulnerability and terrorist incidents
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

7. Workflow
• selection and spatial definition of study
areas (132)
• collection of historic incident data from
MIPT’s TKB and START’s GTD (1,098)
• creation of binary indicators:
• have incidents happened?
• have there been casualties?
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

8. • selection and spatial definition of study
areas (132)
• Workflow
collection of historic incident data from
MIPT’s TKB and START’s GTD (1,098)
• creation of binary indicators:
• have incidents happened?
• have there been casualties?
• calculation of probability for incident /
casualties in every location
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

9. Calculation of PVI
SoVI HazVI BEVI
socio-economic community vulnerable
processes and experience in characteristics of the
factors that hinder or responding to built environment
enable a location’s extreme events (e.g. infrastructure)
response and (i.e. preparedness)
recovery from
cf. Cutter et al. (2003) cf. Borden et al. (2007)
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

10. Chapter 2
Social Vulnerability

11. Social Vulnerability
Social Inequalities Place Inequalities
• define susceptibility to harm • define characteristics of
• govern ability to respond communities & environment
Exemplary indicators: Exemplary indicators:
•age • level of urbanization
•race • growth rates
•health • economic vitality
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

12. Chapter 3
Nailing Down
Vulnerability

13. Vulnerability Factors
• consensus about major factors
• lack of access to resources (e.g.
information, knowledge, technology)
• limited access to political power and
representation
• social capital, including social
networks and connections
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

14. • limited access to political power and
representation
Vulnerability Factors
•
social capital, including social
networks and connections
• beliefs and customs
• building stock and age
• frail and physically limited individuals
• type and density of infrastructure and
lifelines
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

15. Processing
• collection of socio-economic data (US)
• identify relevant variables (250)
• compute and normalize variables until
independent (42)
• reduce data using factor analysis
(“principal components analysis”) (11)
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

16. SoVI Dimensions
housing stock &
personal wealth race - african american
tenancy
+0.87 +0.80
-0.75
density of built
age race - asian
environment
-0.90 +0.71
+0.98
infrastructure
occupation ethnicity - hispanic
dependance
-0.76 +0.89
+0.77
single-sector ethnicity - native
economic dependance american
+0.80 +0.75
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

17. Chapter 4
Back to Urban
Vulnerability

18. Study Results
• weighted PVI measure can significantly
explain relationship between PVI and
actual terrorist incidence
• benchmarking approach helps to
identify places at risk:
PVI > benchmark value
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

19. Chapter 5
Summary

20. Shortcomings
• US-centric research only
• spatial resolution very rough (city level)
• severance of incidents not quantified
• not transferrable to other geographies
• index factors not applicable to terrorism
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

21. Next Steps
• analyze feasibility of reproduction of
study for Japan (pure / intelligent)
• identification of relevant factors and
variables for Japanese urban areas
• build upon shown SoVI, PVI approach
• include dimension of attractiveness
Konstantin Greger - Nailing Down Vulnerability

22. Thank you for your time
• Find more about Spatial Terrorism
Vulnerability Analysis (STVA) on my
website: www.konstantingreger.net
• Or follow my on Twitter: @kogreger
• Or contact me by eMail:
greger@geoenv.tsukuba.ac.jp