This report from CIMB Research provides technical analysis and forecasts for global and Asian equity markets. It predicts that the recent uptrend in markets will soon be ending, with a correction expected over the next 2-6 weeks. Key support levels are identified at the 50-day simple moving average and 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Specific markets like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index, and various Asian country indices are analyzed. Both a preferred and alternative wave count scenario is presented to gauge market direction.
This document provides a weekly market outlook report for the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices in India. It includes key support and resistance levels for the indices based on daily charts. It also provides sector-wise performance data and analysis of foreign institutional investor trends. Technical analyses of the indices are given, noting that Nifty needs to stay above 11,820 to see an upmove. Bank Nifty support is seen at 29700 with resistance at 30500-30700. The document scans various stocks based on technical indicators and patterns. News headlines pertaining to stocks, politics, economy and global markets are also summarized.
Leadership involves influencing people through trust and shared vision, rather than control or management through hierarchy. True leadership gains followers through belief and trust in a leader's vision and authentic qualities like transparency, rather than people being forced to follow. Effective leaders look forward strategically, motivate and inspire others through their vision, reputation and ability to build trust within tribes of people they influence through conversation and storytelling.
Tools and Tactics for Audience Building on Facebook and Twitter - Part 1 of 4Epiphanies, Inc.
Originally created for an extended workshop at the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, this presentation has been broken out into four bite-sized chunks for easier use. See the other three parts at http://slideshare.net/AhaYourself!
Part 1 explains how audience building is intricately tied to the rest of your social media action plan. Part two focuses on five audience-building strategies to use on either Facebook or Twitter. Part 3 dives into ten Facebook-specific tools and tactics for audience building, and Part 4 does the same for Twitter.
Please share your feedback and more audience-building ideas here, or at http://facebook.com/AhaYourself. Thank you!
We raise our CPO price assumption to RM2,000/t (from RM1,600/t)
on the current high price of RM2,800/t and YTD RM2,178/t average.
We do not foresee CPO prices staying at current levels beyond 2Q due
to rising 2H production and slowing exports. The present CPO price is
81-123% above its long term historical price in USD and Ringgit
equivalents. EPS forecasts are upgraded by up to more than 100% but
company valuations remain stretched. Maintain Underweight.
Recent CPO price spike unsustainable. We view the recent 40%
spike to the RM2,800/t level from an average of RM1,950/t in 1Q09 as
too fast, too furious. Traders and speculators justified the high price on
tight inventory. We think a significant price correction in 2H is imminent
as inventory is expected to build up on slowing exports and stronger 2H
production. Also, the present CPO price is 81% and 123% above its 30-
year long term historical price in USD and Ringgit equivalents of
USD430/t and RM1,257/t respectively.
Bearish 2H price outlook. CPO production, which has disappointed in
1H09 due to poor weather and tree stress, is likely to rebound strongly
in 2H. Besides production recovery, narrowing palm oil discounts
against competing oils should slow exports. A return of normal weather
in the next planting season for South America, and increased trade
protectionism by the West on palm biodiesel are some of the other
bearish fundamental factors for CPO.
Earnings forecasts upgraded. With CPO price having averaged
RM2,178/t YTD and likely to remain high in 2Q on tight supply, we raise
our CPO price assumption from RM1,600/t to RM2,000/t for 2009-11.
This results in EPS upgrades for plantation companies under our
coverage ranging from 17% to over 100% for 2009-11.
Valuations remain expensive. We rate the sector Underweight.
Valuations remain stretched, especially for IOI and KLK which trade at
20.1x and 16.9x 2010 PER. We downgrade Asiatic to Sell (from Hold)
as the stock has soared 54% YTD and is highly leveraged on CPO
price swings. Sime has been raised to Hold (from Sell). Risks to our
price view are a weaker USD, higher energy prices, and further supply
shocks due to weather anomalies.
This document provides a sector update and analysis of the media industry in Malaysia. Some key points:
1) Advertising expenditure (adex) in March 2009 contracted only 1% year-over-year, a much better showing than previous months, driven by a 13% increase in TV adex.
2) However, the analyst maintains a cautious outlook due to difficult year-over-year comparisons and lack of major events in 2009 that boosted adex in 2008.
3) The analyst downgrades their recommendation on Media Prima and Star to Sell, as their share prices have risen ahead of underlying fundamentals in the weak economy. The media sector outlook is downgraded to Underweight.
Social Media Trendsetting | How to Succeed and Lead Today With Digital and Mo...Epiphanies, Inc.
What's better than "engagement" in social media marketing? How have social media goals been evolving? What do you do about fragmenting audiences in your social media strategy? And how can you save time managing it all? Lani and Allen Voivod of Epiphanies, Inc. dive in to examine social media trends that aren't just "flashes in the pan." These trends have stood the test of time (unlike some of the ones you'll see pictured in the presentation).
37 Easy Ways to Boost Visibility and Engagement With TwitterEpiphanies, Inc.
The document discusses the benefits of Twitter for businesses and provides 37 tips for boosting visibility, revenue, and results through Twitter. It promotes the AhaTribe community which provides training resources on social media, marketing, and success. Members get access to webinars, interviews, a private Facebook group, and more to help them learn how to leverage Twitter for their business.
This document provides a weekly market outlook report for the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices in India. It includes key support and resistance levels for the indices based on daily charts. It also provides sector-wise performance data and analysis of foreign institutional investor trends. Technical analyses of the indices are given, noting that Nifty needs to stay above 11,820 to see an upmove. Bank Nifty support is seen at 29700 with resistance at 30500-30700. The document scans various stocks based on technical indicators and patterns. News headlines pertaining to stocks, politics, economy and global markets are also summarized.
Leadership involves influencing people through trust and shared vision, rather than control or management through hierarchy. True leadership gains followers through belief and trust in a leader's vision and authentic qualities like transparency, rather than people being forced to follow. Effective leaders look forward strategically, motivate and inspire others through their vision, reputation and ability to build trust within tribes of people they influence through conversation and storytelling.
Tools and Tactics for Audience Building on Facebook and Twitter - Part 1 of 4Epiphanies, Inc.
Originally created for an extended workshop at the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, this presentation has been broken out into four bite-sized chunks for easier use. See the other three parts at http://slideshare.net/AhaYourself!
Part 1 explains how audience building is intricately tied to the rest of your social media action plan. Part two focuses on five audience-building strategies to use on either Facebook or Twitter. Part 3 dives into ten Facebook-specific tools and tactics for audience building, and Part 4 does the same for Twitter.
Please share your feedback and more audience-building ideas here, or at http://facebook.com/AhaYourself. Thank you!
We raise our CPO price assumption to RM2,000/t (from RM1,600/t)
on the current high price of RM2,800/t and YTD RM2,178/t average.
We do not foresee CPO prices staying at current levels beyond 2Q due
to rising 2H production and slowing exports. The present CPO price is
81-123% above its long term historical price in USD and Ringgit
equivalents. EPS forecasts are upgraded by up to more than 100% but
company valuations remain stretched. Maintain Underweight.
Recent CPO price spike unsustainable. We view the recent 40%
spike to the RM2,800/t level from an average of RM1,950/t in 1Q09 as
too fast, too furious. Traders and speculators justified the high price on
tight inventory. We think a significant price correction in 2H is imminent
as inventory is expected to build up on slowing exports and stronger 2H
production. Also, the present CPO price is 81% and 123% above its 30-
year long term historical price in USD and Ringgit equivalents of
USD430/t and RM1,257/t respectively.
Bearish 2H price outlook. CPO production, which has disappointed in
1H09 due to poor weather and tree stress, is likely to rebound strongly
in 2H. Besides production recovery, narrowing palm oil discounts
against competing oils should slow exports. A return of normal weather
in the next planting season for South America, and increased trade
protectionism by the West on palm biodiesel are some of the other
bearish fundamental factors for CPO.
Earnings forecasts upgraded. With CPO price having averaged
RM2,178/t YTD and likely to remain high in 2Q on tight supply, we raise
our CPO price assumption from RM1,600/t to RM2,000/t for 2009-11.
This results in EPS upgrades for plantation companies under our
coverage ranging from 17% to over 100% for 2009-11.
Valuations remain expensive. We rate the sector Underweight.
Valuations remain stretched, especially for IOI and KLK which trade at
20.1x and 16.9x 2010 PER. We downgrade Asiatic to Sell (from Hold)
as the stock has soared 54% YTD and is highly leveraged on CPO
price swings. Sime has been raised to Hold (from Sell). Risks to our
price view are a weaker USD, higher energy prices, and further supply
shocks due to weather anomalies.
This document provides a sector update and analysis of the media industry in Malaysia. Some key points:
1) Advertising expenditure (adex) in March 2009 contracted only 1% year-over-year, a much better showing than previous months, driven by a 13% increase in TV adex.
2) However, the analyst maintains a cautious outlook due to difficult year-over-year comparisons and lack of major events in 2009 that boosted adex in 2008.
3) The analyst downgrades their recommendation on Media Prima and Star to Sell, as their share prices have risen ahead of underlying fundamentals in the weak economy. The media sector outlook is downgraded to Underweight.
Social Media Trendsetting | How to Succeed and Lead Today With Digital and Mo...Epiphanies, Inc.
What's better than "engagement" in social media marketing? How have social media goals been evolving? What do you do about fragmenting audiences in your social media strategy? And how can you save time managing it all? Lani and Allen Voivod of Epiphanies, Inc. dive in to examine social media trends that aren't just "flashes in the pan." These trends have stood the test of time (unlike some of the ones you'll see pictured in the presentation).
37 Easy Ways to Boost Visibility and Engagement With TwitterEpiphanies, Inc.
The document discusses the benefits of Twitter for businesses and provides 37 tips for boosting visibility, revenue, and results through Twitter. It promotes the AhaTribe community which provides training resources on social media, marketing, and success. Members get access to webinars, interviews, a private Facebook group, and more to help them learn how to leverage Twitter for their business.
• Extended wedge formation. We were expecting the DJIA to break down from its
wedge formation last week but it continued to rise further towards the 8,300 levels
before correcting end of last week. The Index could still be in an extended wedge
formation and the breakdown the wedge support trend line at the 8,100pt would
confirm the end of this pattern.
• If we are wrong… If we are wrong, our alternative wave count shows that DJIA
could have already started its minor wave “c” up leg after completion of the wave
“b” triangle consolidation since early Apr last week (refer to chart below). This wave
count is supported by the breakout of the major resistance trend line since Nov-08.
Confirmation of this alternative wave count if DJIA breaks above 8,300pt.
• US banking stocks remains in consolidation phase. If banking stocks are
leading the market, DJIA is still in an extended wedge formation. The KBW Bank
Index has just broken down below its uptrend channel support trend line since
early-Mar. This indicates further consolidation in the immediate term for the Index.
• Crude oil uptrend is not over. We were looking for crude oil prices to break down
last week but the price has since bounced back above the US$53/barrel levels.
This has negated our preferred wave count and a likely “double zig-zag” is taking
place, targeting the US$60-70/barrel levels in 2H09.
• Channel breakout. MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (MAxJ) only experienced a mild
correction last week and closed strong for the week at 336. The Index just broke
out of its channel resistance trend line since Nov-08. This is a positive sign if the
Index is able to hold above this trend line over the next few weeks.
• Still expect consolidation. However, we still expect Asian equity markets to
consolidate over the next few weeks to build up a support base before charging up
in June-July. If RSI breaks out of its current consolidation range, this would likely
indicate that Asia has kick started its next up leg towards the June-Jul period.
• Wedge breakdown points to 7,400 target. The DJIA broke below its wedge
formation early this week, confirming the end of the uptrend that started in early
Mar. At the very least, the DJIA should retreat to 7,400, the start of the wedge
formation. For the S&P500, the wedge target is 780pts.
• Deeper correction than 7,400? The DJIA may descend below the 7,400pt target.
Its MACD has just confirmed its bearish “dead cross”, which signals more
downside in the immediate term. Asia’s equity markets also look vulnerable in the
near term with the likely end of both the stockmarket rally in China and crude oil’s
rebound.
• End of China’s rally? China’s stockmarket upswing since Oct 08 may have ended
this week. A critical support for the Shanghai Composite Index gave way this week,
a likely sign that the bull run has ended. Furthermore, the daily RSI has not been
able to overcome its major resistance trend line since 3Q08. The key support is the
50-day SMA at 2,307pts.
• Crude oil heading south? The end of China’s stockmarket rally is also in line with
the likely breakdown of crude oil prices in the coming weeks. Crude oil price
recently broke down from its triangle consolidation. The major daily MACD support
trend line since Dec 08 caved in a fortnight ago while the RSI has not been able to
overcome its major resistance trend line since Dec 08. This could indicate the end
of crude oil’s rebound since Oct 08. The wave 5 down leg could be taking place,
taking crude oil back to the US$30/barrel level in the next few months.
• Consolidation ahead for Asia. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (MAxJ) confirmed
its MACD bearish “dead cross” this week. The last time this happened was in Feb
09. The 200-day SMA at 323 remains a major resistance. The near-term support
trend line collapsed this week, a likely indication of more consolidation ahead. The
key support is at the 50-day SMA at 282 and the 50-61.8% FR at 276-287.
The document provides 10 stock recommendations from ValueMax for the month of July 2013. It summarizes the technical analysis on each stock, including key support and resistance levels and moving averages. The recommendations are to buy the stocks, with specific stop loss and two target levels provided for each one. The analysis identifies positive technical patterns and momentum indicators as reasons to expect the stocks to continue their upward movements.
Weekly Pick: Buy Tata Steel between CMP and Rs460 - HDFC Sec IndiaNotes.com
The document provides a technical analysis of the Indian stock market index Nifty 50. It notes that the index has formed an inside candle on the weekly chart, indicating a lack of momentum. It analyzes the index's movement in terms of wave patterns and identifies the current movement as wave iii of wave iii, with potential to rise further to the 8150 level. The document also provides technical analyses of various sectors, identifying those near crucial resistance and support levels. It recommends buying Tata Steel based on an inverted head and shoulder pattern and other technical indicators.
CNX NIFTY - The markets opened higher in trade on Monday, tracking positive trend seen in Asian markets after upbeat US jobs report on Friday suggested US Federal Reserve may go for interest rate hikes in nearly a decade in
its December policy meet.The Nifty50-share index was quoting 7,818.40, up 36.50 points. On Tuesday The market has
This document provides a technical analysis of the S&P 500 stock market index. It finds that:
1) The index is potentially in a short-term bearish downtrend if it breaks and closes below the 2050 support level.
2) If a downtrend is confirmed, the analysis expects a correction of around -10% rather than -20%, with 1900 as a possible short-term target.
3) Momentum and breadth indicators imply a downward cycle before another upward move, but macro factors do not point to the start of a bear market.
Free weekly newsletter with outlook and brief comments for world stock markets. Weekly reversal levels for stocks, gold, crypto currencies and forex. This method was designed to keep you on the right side of the market most of the time, letting the winners run while avoiding big losses.
The document discusses the technical analysis of the Indian equity markets and argues that the markets are currently in a bullish ascending triangle pattern. It notes that the Nifty has formed a 5-year ascending triangle and is nearing a breakout point that could lead to explosive moves upwards. Global markets are also experiencing bullish breakouts from long-term patterns. The analysis concludes that the markets are at a critical support level and recommends a bullish investing strategy of buying on dips in anticipation of an upwards breakout in the coming months.
The document describes two option strategies implemented on SBI stock - a bull call spread before the company's earnings announcement and writing straddles after. For the bull call spread, the stock was expected to rise with increased volatility before results. This strategy realized a profit. For writing straddles after results, the stock was expected to trade in a range with decreasing volatility. Utilizing the time decay over a long weekend, this strategy also proved profitable. The document analyzes the relevant market data and outlines the risk-reward profiles of both strategies.
See how I successfully trade stocks by looking back at some past trades.
These are NOT hindsight trades and were posted real real time.
You can see all my setups posted to TraderPlanet here: http://www.traderplanet.com/newsletter-issues/articles/1/Steven+Place/
And you can get more awesome stuff by going to my site at investingwithoptions.com
If you want to invest in Long Term Investment Stocks in Indian Market so Epic Research provides stock market analysis reports you can get information about the which stock you should by. Our well stock market specialist provides stock tips.
Nifty: Bulls to hold prices at the higher levels - HDFC SecIndiaNotes.com
Nifty showing sharp bottom reversal pattern from near the significant support area is an indication of strength of bulls to hold prices at the higher levels. The formation of bullish sequence of higher tops and bottoms as per smaller as well as larger timeframe is signaling strength of an uptrend.
Nifty: Bulls to hold prices at the higher levels - HDFC Sec IndiaNotes.com
Nifty showing sharp bottom reversal pattern from near the significant support area is an indication of strength of bulls to hold prices at the higher levels. The formation of bullish sequence of higher tops and bottoms as per smaller as well as larger timeframe is signaling strength of an uptrend.
The document provides stock recommendations for Diwali based on technical analysis. It recommends buying six stocks - IOC, TATAMTRDVR, GEOMETRIC, BERGERPAINT, ORIENTBANK, and Choice Family Wishes You & Your Family A Very Happy Diwali & Prosperous New Year. It then provides a technical analysis for each stock pick and recommends entry and target prices.
Col 2014 1st half technical outlook(final print)Garry De Castro
The chief technical analyst presented an outlook on global and Philippine markets for the first half of 2014. Emerging markets suffered heavily from funds flowing back to developed markets as the US Federal Reserve tapered its bond buying program. The Philippine peso continued its devaluing trend against the dollar, while the Philippine stock index (PSEi) attempted to form a base around 5,700 after declining over 18% from its high. The analyst recommended a range trading strategy for the PSEi and focusing on stronger stocks, with a medium to long term view of buying on dips.
The daily analysis report from TP Global FX provides summaries of economic data and events from Asia and upcoming data from Europe and North America. Key points include the RBA keeping interest rates unchanged and being patient on inflation, mixed manufacturing PMIs from Asia and Europe, and analysis of major currency pairs with technical indicators suggesting short-term trends.
Special report by epic research of 18 aug 2017Epic Research
Epic Research is a leading financial advisory company provides daily share market reports on different segments. it provides daily updates to investors as well as it helps investors to boost their performance in the market.
The document discusses recent changes by the SEC that will allow money market funds to let their share prices float below $1 and to block withdrawals during times of crisis. It also summarizes market performance for stocks, gold, oil and the US dollar for the week. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 fell while gold rose. Crude oil closed near recent levels and the US dollar index strengthened significantly.
Weekly commodity trading market report 09 jun -2014 by epic researchEpic Research Limited
MCX Trading Recommendations by EpicResearch helped me book profits. The support team from Epic is sending complete Entry/Exit/Book Profit SMS of each and every call. If I can make a profit from their calls, I think any average investor can. Go Epic!
Equity segment is also known as Cash segment. Equity trading is quite popular in Indian stock market as in Equity segment traders and investors can buy any number of shares depending upon their budget and risk appetite.
Foreign boys not spared a 20% 1Q earnings decline. The combined net profit
of the five major foreign banks in Malaysia fell 19.7% yoy to RM824.6m in 1Q09,
worse than the 14% slide recorded by the local banks. Clearly, the foreign boys
are not spared the impact of the economic downturn, with earnings dents coming
primarily from (1) a 1.3% yoy drop in net interest income, (2) 25% slump in non-
interest income, and (3) 23% jump in loan loss provisioning (LLP).
• Foreign banks’ loan growth trailing local banks’. As expected, foreign banks
recorded slower net loan growth of 3.1% yoy in Mar 09 compared to 12% for
local banks’ domestic lending. The performance of foreign banks was pulled
down by a 6.8% contraction in Citibank’s loan base, due primarily to a drop in
property and business loans. Other major foreign banks registered single-digit
loan growth ranging from 3.3% (for UOB) to 8.7% (for OCBC).
• Higher NPL ratios and credit costs. Against the backdrop of a grim economic
climate in 1Q09, all major foreign banks saw a rise in their net NPL ratios. The
blended net NPL ratio of these five banks increased from 1.68% in Dec 08 to
1.81% in Mar 09, lower than the industry’s 2.2%. The hike in NPL ratios led to a
23% yoy surge in 1Q09 LLP.
• Better performance by local banks. In 1Q09, local banks outperformed their
foreign peers in the areas of (1) net profit – 14.2% yoy drop vs. 19.7% for foreign
banks, (2) non-interest income – down 7.1% yoy vs. 25.3% for foreign banks
despite their higher exposure to poor investment banking income, and (3) NPL
ratios – a few local banks, i.e. Maybank, Public Bank, AMMB and Alliance
managed to contain their NPL ratios while qoq rises were evident for all the
major foreign banks.
• Maintain NEUTRAL. Foreign banks’ poor 1Q09 financial results reflect the
adverse operating environment. We take heart in the outperformance of the local
banks during these difficult times as it suggests that the improvements in local
banks’ operations, especially in the area of risk management, have helped them
to weather the economic downturn. On this note, we are maintaining our
NEUTRAL stance on Malaysian banks as local banks may trump our and market
expectations in countering the slowdown in loan growth and the uptick in NPLs.
Our top pick for the sector remains Public Bank.
An improved performance. While the results announced by oil & gas (O&G)
companies in Mar-May 09 were a mixed bag, they leaned towards the positive,
unlike the previous quarter. A third of the six companies in our portfolio missed our
forecasts, an improvement on 50% in 4Q08. Half of the companies broadly met our
expectations (4Q08: 17%) and one (17%) surprised on the upside (4Q08: 33%).
Since 1 May 09, the share prices of O&G stocks under our coverage have jumped
by an average 28%, reflecting the overall encouraging reporting season.
• Three trends in 1Q09. 1) Margins picked up as companies climbed the value chain:
Except for Dialog, all the companies in our O&G portfolio showed margin
improvement, with average EBIT margin rising from 14% in 4Q08 to 20% in 1Q09.
2) Late delivery remains a problem for offshore support vessel (OSV) operators: In
total, Petra Perdana and Alam missed six vessel delivery dates due to assembly
line congestion and delayed shipment of parts. 3) Petroleum retailers and refiners
bounced back: The rising crude oil price supports the selling prices of products that
are not subject to automatic pricing mechanism (APM) and refiners benefited from
inventory gains.
• Service providers stand to benefit. YTD, the oil price has jumped 56%, reflecting
factors such as 1) a weakening US dollar, which encourages speculative money to
flow into the market, and 2) an increased risk appetite among investors who
anticipate an economic recovery. As a producing country, Malaysia is poised to
benefit from the upward march of the oil price. Petronas-licensed service providers
offering works and facilities such as yards, tank terminals, offshore structures and
maintenance job stand to win the most.
• Target price increases. There are no changes to our forecasts. However, we are
raising our target prices by 11% for Dialog, Kencana, SapuraCrest and Wah Seong
to reflect our recent index target upgrade. We now apply our revised target market
P/E of 15x to the stocks, instead of 13.5x. Our target prices for Alam, Petra Perdana
and Petronas Dagangan are maintained.
• Kencana replaces Petra Perdana as top pick. YTD, Petra Perdana’s share price
has risen by a whopping 120%, making the stock an outstanding performer in our oil
& gas portfolio. While we still like the stock, we are replacing it with Kencana as our
top pick. We believe Kencana’s newsflow and order book replenishment over the
next few months will be more exciting.
• Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain OVERWEIGHT on the oil & gas sector in view
of the potential re-rating catalysts of 1) M&As, and 2) more active newsflow. Also
unchanged are all our stock recommendations and earnings forecasts.
• Extended wedge formation. We were expecting the DJIA to break down from its
wedge formation last week but it continued to rise further towards the 8,300 levels
before correcting end of last week. The Index could still be in an extended wedge
formation and the breakdown the wedge support trend line at the 8,100pt would
confirm the end of this pattern.
• If we are wrong… If we are wrong, our alternative wave count shows that DJIA
could have already started its minor wave “c” up leg after completion of the wave
“b” triangle consolidation since early Apr last week (refer to chart below). This wave
count is supported by the breakout of the major resistance trend line since Nov-08.
Confirmation of this alternative wave count if DJIA breaks above 8,300pt.
• US banking stocks remains in consolidation phase. If banking stocks are
leading the market, DJIA is still in an extended wedge formation. The KBW Bank
Index has just broken down below its uptrend channel support trend line since
early-Mar. This indicates further consolidation in the immediate term for the Index.
• Crude oil uptrend is not over. We were looking for crude oil prices to break down
last week but the price has since bounced back above the US$53/barrel levels.
This has negated our preferred wave count and a likely “double zig-zag” is taking
place, targeting the US$60-70/barrel levels in 2H09.
• Channel breakout. MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (MAxJ) only experienced a mild
correction last week and closed strong for the week at 336. The Index just broke
out of its channel resistance trend line since Nov-08. This is a positive sign if the
Index is able to hold above this trend line over the next few weeks.
• Still expect consolidation. However, we still expect Asian equity markets to
consolidate over the next few weeks to build up a support base before charging up
in June-July. If RSI breaks out of its current consolidation range, this would likely
indicate that Asia has kick started its next up leg towards the June-Jul period.
• Wedge breakdown points to 7,400 target. The DJIA broke below its wedge
formation early this week, confirming the end of the uptrend that started in early
Mar. At the very least, the DJIA should retreat to 7,400, the start of the wedge
formation. For the S&P500, the wedge target is 780pts.
• Deeper correction than 7,400? The DJIA may descend below the 7,400pt target.
Its MACD has just confirmed its bearish “dead cross”, which signals more
downside in the immediate term. Asia’s equity markets also look vulnerable in the
near term with the likely end of both the stockmarket rally in China and crude oil’s
rebound.
• End of China’s rally? China’s stockmarket upswing since Oct 08 may have ended
this week. A critical support for the Shanghai Composite Index gave way this week,
a likely sign that the bull run has ended. Furthermore, the daily RSI has not been
able to overcome its major resistance trend line since 3Q08. The key support is the
50-day SMA at 2,307pts.
• Crude oil heading south? The end of China’s stockmarket rally is also in line with
the likely breakdown of crude oil prices in the coming weeks. Crude oil price
recently broke down from its triangle consolidation. The major daily MACD support
trend line since Dec 08 caved in a fortnight ago while the RSI has not been able to
overcome its major resistance trend line since Dec 08. This could indicate the end
of crude oil’s rebound since Oct 08. The wave 5 down leg could be taking place,
taking crude oil back to the US$30/barrel level in the next few months.
• Consolidation ahead for Asia. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (MAxJ) confirmed
its MACD bearish “dead cross” this week. The last time this happened was in Feb
09. The 200-day SMA at 323 remains a major resistance. The near-term support
trend line collapsed this week, a likely indication of more consolidation ahead. The
key support is at the 50-day SMA at 282 and the 50-61.8% FR at 276-287.
The document provides 10 stock recommendations from ValueMax for the month of July 2013. It summarizes the technical analysis on each stock, including key support and resistance levels and moving averages. The recommendations are to buy the stocks, with specific stop loss and two target levels provided for each one. The analysis identifies positive technical patterns and momentum indicators as reasons to expect the stocks to continue their upward movements.
Weekly Pick: Buy Tata Steel between CMP and Rs460 - HDFC Sec IndiaNotes.com
The document provides a technical analysis of the Indian stock market index Nifty 50. It notes that the index has formed an inside candle on the weekly chart, indicating a lack of momentum. It analyzes the index's movement in terms of wave patterns and identifies the current movement as wave iii of wave iii, with potential to rise further to the 8150 level. The document also provides technical analyses of various sectors, identifying those near crucial resistance and support levels. It recommends buying Tata Steel based on an inverted head and shoulder pattern and other technical indicators.
CNX NIFTY - The markets opened higher in trade on Monday, tracking positive trend seen in Asian markets after upbeat US jobs report on Friday suggested US Federal Reserve may go for interest rate hikes in nearly a decade in
its December policy meet.The Nifty50-share index was quoting 7,818.40, up 36.50 points. On Tuesday The market has
This document provides a technical analysis of the S&P 500 stock market index. It finds that:
1) The index is potentially in a short-term bearish downtrend if it breaks and closes below the 2050 support level.
2) If a downtrend is confirmed, the analysis expects a correction of around -10% rather than -20%, with 1900 as a possible short-term target.
3) Momentum and breadth indicators imply a downward cycle before another upward move, but macro factors do not point to the start of a bear market.
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The document discusses the technical analysis of the Indian equity markets and argues that the markets are currently in a bullish ascending triangle pattern. It notes that the Nifty has formed a 5-year ascending triangle and is nearing a breakout point that could lead to explosive moves upwards. Global markets are also experiencing bullish breakouts from long-term patterns. The analysis concludes that the markets are at a critical support level and recommends a bullish investing strategy of buying on dips in anticipation of an upwards breakout in the coming months.
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Nifty showing sharp bottom reversal pattern from near the significant support area is an indication of strength of bulls to hold prices at the higher levels. The formation of bullish sequence of higher tops and bottoms as per smaller as well as larger timeframe is signaling strength of an uptrend.
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Nifty showing sharp bottom reversal pattern from near the significant support area is an indication of strength of bulls to hold prices at the higher levels. The formation of bullish sequence of higher tops and bottoms as per smaller as well as larger timeframe is signaling strength of an uptrend.
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The chief technical analyst presented an outlook on global and Philippine markets for the first half of 2014. Emerging markets suffered heavily from funds flowing back to developed markets as the US Federal Reserve tapered its bond buying program. The Philippine peso continued its devaluing trend against the dollar, while the Philippine stock index (PSEi) attempted to form a base around 5,700 after declining over 18% from its high. The analyst recommended a range trading strategy for the PSEi and focusing on stronger stocks, with a medium to long term view of buying on dips.
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The document discusses recent changes by the SEC that will allow money market funds to let their share prices float below $1 and to block withdrawals during times of crisis. It also summarizes market performance for stocks, gold, oil and the US dollar for the week. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 fell while gold rose. Crude oil closed near recent levels and the US dollar index strengthened significantly.
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Foreign boys not spared a 20% 1Q earnings decline. The combined net profit
of the five major foreign banks in Malaysia fell 19.7% yoy to RM824.6m in 1Q09,
worse than the 14% slide recorded by the local banks. Clearly, the foreign boys
are not spared the impact of the economic downturn, with earnings dents coming
primarily from (1) a 1.3% yoy drop in net interest income, (2) 25% slump in non-
interest income, and (3) 23% jump in loan loss provisioning (LLP).
• Foreign banks’ loan growth trailing local banks’. As expected, foreign banks
recorded slower net loan growth of 3.1% yoy in Mar 09 compared to 12% for
local banks’ domestic lending. The performance of foreign banks was pulled
down by a 6.8% contraction in Citibank’s loan base, due primarily to a drop in
property and business loans. Other major foreign banks registered single-digit
loan growth ranging from 3.3% (for UOB) to 8.7% (for OCBC).
• Higher NPL ratios and credit costs. Against the backdrop of a grim economic
climate in 1Q09, all major foreign banks saw a rise in their net NPL ratios. The
blended net NPL ratio of these five banks increased from 1.68% in Dec 08 to
1.81% in Mar 09, lower than the industry’s 2.2%. The hike in NPL ratios led to a
23% yoy surge in 1Q09 LLP.
• Better performance by local banks. In 1Q09, local banks outperformed their
foreign peers in the areas of (1) net profit – 14.2% yoy drop vs. 19.7% for foreign
banks, (2) non-interest income – down 7.1% yoy vs. 25.3% for foreign banks
despite their higher exposure to poor investment banking income, and (3) NPL
ratios – a few local banks, i.e. Maybank, Public Bank, AMMB and Alliance
managed to contain their NPL ratios while qoq rises were evident for all the
major foreign banks.
• Maintain NEUTRAL. Foreign banks’ poor 1Q09 financial results reflect the
adverse operating environment. We take heart in the outperformance of the local
banks during these difficult times as it suggests that the improvements in local
banks’ operations, especially in the area of risk management, have helped them
to weather the economic downturn. On this note, we are maintaining our
NEUTRAL stance on Malaysian banks as local banks may trump our and market
expectations in countering the slowdown in loan growth and the uptick in NPLs.
Our top pick for the sector remains Public Bank.
An improved performance. While the results announced by oil & gas (O&G)
companies in Mar-May 09 were a mixed bag, they leaned towards the positive,
unlike the previous quarter. A third of the six companies in our portfolio missed our
forecasts, an improvement on 50% in 4Q08. Half of the companies broadly met our
expectations (4Q08: 17%) and one (17%) surprised on the upside (4Q08: 33%).
Since 1 May 09, the share prices of O&G stocks under our coverage have jumped
by an average 28%, reflecting the overall encouraging reporting season.
• Three trends in 1Q09. 1) Margins picked up as companies climbed the value chain:
Except for Dialog, all the companies in our O&G portfolio showed margin
improvement, with average EBIT margin rising from 14% in 4Q08 to 20% in 1Q09.
2) Late delivery remains a problem for offshore support vessel (OSV) operators: In
total, Petra Perdana and Alam missed six vessel delivery dates due to assembly
line congestion and delayed shipment of parts. 3) Petroleum retailers and refiners
bounced back: The rising crude oil price supports the selling prices of products that
are not subject to automatic pricing mechanism (APM) and refiners benefited from
inventory gains.
• Service providers stand to benefit. YTD, the oil price has jumped 56%, reflecting
factors such as 1) a weakening US dollar, which encourages speculative money to
flow into the market, and 2) an increased risk appetite among investors who
anticipate an economic recovery. As a producing country, Malaysia is poised to
benefit from the upward march of the oil price. Petronas-licensed service providers
offering works and facilities such as yards, tank terminals, offshore structures and
maintenance job stand to win the most.
• Target price increases. There are no changes to our forecasts. However, we are
raising our target prices by 11% for Dialog, Kencana, SapuraCrest and Wah Seong
to reflect our recent index target upgrade. We now apply our revised target market
P/E of 15x to the stocks, instead of 13.5x. Our target prices for Alam, Petra Perdana
and Petronas Dagangan are maintained.
• Kencana replaces Petra Perdana as top pick. YTD, Petra Perdana’s share price
has risen by a whopping 120%, making the stock an outstanding performer in our oil
& gas portfolio. While we still like the stock, we are replacing it with Kencana as our
top pick. We believe Kencana’s newsflow and order book replenishment over the
next few months will be more exciting.
• Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We remain OVERWEIGHT on the oil & gas sector in view
of the potential re-rating catalysts of 1) M&As, and 2) more active newsflow. Also
unchanged are all our stock recommendations and earnings forecasts.
– February results continued the eight month decline in unit sales (avg -2.6%) across fast moving consumer goods (FMGC) as consumers continue to cut back on shopping trips in the U.S..– Additionally, while the percent change in basket ring increased 2.3% in the U.S., they are off from the January increase of 3.9% possibly due to declining prices as many retail channels did see enhanced shopping frequency in the 1st two months of the year – There was a noticeable up tick in store brands, given the 6.4% increase in unit sales across all store brands in the U.S.. This is the highest lift we have seen since August 2008 as the gap between branded items and store brands widened. – Despite the shift to store brands in the US, National Brands in Canada are still holding their share (81.2) as they capitalize on the consumers need for value through increased feature pricing activity. Over the past year unit sales on feature price increased 8% for National Brands to now account for 38.5% of unit sales. PL remained flat reporting a 1% decline in feature price sales.– Canadians are still shying away from multiple store visits. One stop shopping continues to expand – they are making 4% fewer shopping trips but once in store, they are spending 6% more, driven primarily by rising prices.– Expect March sales to be negatively impacted by the seasonal adjustment of Easter, which in 2008 occurred on March 23rd vs April 12 in 2009.
Be cautious into 3Q. 1Q09 results of the six banking stocks we cover
were generally in line, with combined net profit down 2.1% QoQ and
13.1% YoY. However, the weak 1Q09 GDP suggests growing stress in
system loans over the coming months. We remain cautious on banks’
profits, especially from 3Q09. Underweight the sector.
1Q down a sharp 13.1% YoY. Other than AMMB’s positive surprise,
results were generally in-line. The combined net profit of our banking
universe was flattish QoQ but fell a sharp 13.1% YoY on lower treasury
and FX income and higher loan loss provisions. Net interest income
expanded, but the weak equity market continued to affect brokerage
income, which contracted for the 5th to 6th consecutive quarter.
Some signs of stress. Domestic loans continued growing at most
banks. QoQ loan growth at the major banks (Maybank, CIMB Bank and
Public Bank) outpaced system growth. Some loan segments, however,
have begun showing stress. Domestic NPL saw upticks in the
consumer (mortgage, autos) and working capital segments. Net NPL
ratios continued to trend down due to the expanded loans base.
Earnings to contract. There were no major revisions in our individual
earnings forecasts except for AMMB (FY09: +16%, FY10: +7%). Our
combined net profit forecast was upgraded by a marginal 0.1% for 2009
and 0.7% for 2010. We expect sector earnings to contract 9.9% in
2009, before recovering to 6.8% growth in 2010 (previously -10.1%,
+6.1% respectively). This excludes further impairment in the value of
long-term investments, merger costs and other one-offs.
Asset quality concerns. 1Q09 GDP (-6.2% YoY, -7.7% QoQ) should
be the weakest, suggesting that the worst may be over. However, we
expect economic recovery to be slow, with real GDP to return to the
3Q08 high only in 4Q10. There is a 3-6 month interval from GDP trough
to NPL peak. Hence, banks are set to report weaker profits on rising
NPLs and higher credit charges from 3Q09.
Mainly Sells. Against regional peers, the larger Malaysian banks are
pricey. The current liquidity driven market has pushed valuations up but
prospects for a strong economic recovery stay hazy. Sell into strength.
Upping CPO price forecasts. In this report card on the recent results season, we
are raising our CPO price (cif) forecasts by 18% for 2009 and 8% for 2010 to
US$710 per tonne for both years. The reasons for our upgrades are Argentina’s
lower soybean crops, the slower decline in demand growth from key consumers
and a slower-than-expected recovery in palm oil output. Our new local CPO price
forecasts are RM2,280 for 2009 and RM2,250 for 2010.
• CPO price to pull back in 3Q before recovering in 4Q. We remain positive
about CPO price until end-2Q as the replenishment of stocks will require time,
India’s import duties on edible oils remain at zero and there is concern over the
delay in plantings in US. We expect CPO price to pull back in 3Q before
recovering towards the end of the year.
• Upgrading earnings forecasts and target prices. In view of our higher CPO
price forecasts and recent changes in our rupiah assumptions, we are raising our
FY09-10 earnings forecasts for all the planters in our coverage by up to 30%.
This, along with higher target P/Es following our upgrade of regional
stockmarkets, bumps up our target prices by 3-53%. We are raising Hap Seng
Plantations and Sampoerna Agro to Neutral given their recent underperformance.
• Upgrading Malaysian plantation sector to Neutral. We are raising our rating for
the Malaysian plantation sector from Underweight to Neutral as its valuation
premium over regional peers has narrowed following its recent underperformance,
selected plantations stocks will benefit from an increase in their weightings in the
new FBM30 indices on 6 July 2009, we are more bullish on the Malaysian stock
market and foreign shareholding levels have fallen.
• Staying NEUTRAL on regional plantation sector. Despite our CPO price
upgrade, we remain NEUTRAL on the regional plantation sector as the share
prices of most planters in our universe have done well YTD, reflecting the more
upbeat CPO price outlook and expectations of a correction of CPO price in 3Q
due to seasonally higher production and potential cutbacks in demand from major
consuming countries if crop prospects improve. There is also no change to our
Overweight rating on the Singapore plantation sector and Neutral call on the
Indonesian plantation sector. For exposure to the regional plantation sector, we
continue to recommend large-cap liquid planters. Our top picks in the region are
Wilmar, Sime Darby, Indofood Agri and London Sumatra.
Welcome to the 2009 edition of
The Wealth Report, the third such collaboration
between Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank.
Over the past 12 months the economic outlook has
become even more uncertain. Most of the developed
world is now in recession, and even the emerging
economies have been forced to pause for breath. Every
commentator accepts 2009 will be tough. Our Attitudes
Survey (page 12) indicates clearly that HNWIs will look
to protect their wealth from the ravages of the
downturn with an emphasis firmly on security and
transparency rather than risk.
The tangible nature of property means it is well
placed to benefit from this shift in emphasis, and there
are signs that some mature prime property markets,
such as London and New York, have readjusted to price
levels that offer good value for purchasers. For some
emerging markets, the rollercoaster ride looks set to
continue. A full analysis of prime global markets is
included on page 26, and we recommend 10 locations
and sectors that offer potential for growth on page 23.
As property is just one aspect of wealth, we have
expanded the scope of The Wealth Report by including
an investigation into the performance of alternative
assets, from art and cars to wine (page 36), and an
assessment of the state of the philanthropy sector
(page 16). Influential thinkers, such as Alain de Botton
(page 20), also share their views on how the world will
adjust to life post credit crunch.
We hope you enjoy reading the report.
The document provides a summary and analysis of Malaysian companies' 1Q09 earnings results. Some key points:
- The results season was not as bad as feared, with fewer companies missing expectations than in previous quarters. EPS forecasts for 2009 and 2010 were surprisingly raised rather than cut.
- Six sectors disappointed expectations while two performed above. The revision ratio improved to 0.6x, indicating less negative earnings momentum.
- The worst could be over as future quarters may see more balanced results and fewer EPS cuts. However, EPS growth may not turn positive again until 3Q09.
- During the results period, the analyst raised forecasts for eight companies and lowered forecasts for 23 companies.
The majority down. 62% of our 72-stock universe suffered lower
sequential quarterly net profits, with 24% surprising on the downside.
The combined 1Q09 net profit of our research universe fell by just 3.5%
QoQ. But stripping out 5 large gainers, net profits fell a larger 13.6%
QoQ. Consumers and glove manufacturers’ defied gravity, but net
profits of virtually all stocks in nine sectors fell quarter-on-quarter.
A surprising combined result, but the devil is in the details. The
combined net profit of our research universe declined just 3.5% QoQ
despite an overwhelming 62% of companies reporting a sequential
quarterly decline. But excluding five companies, combined net profit fell
13.6% QoQ, an acceleration from previous quarters. A broad-based
earnings decline is being masked by a few companies, including some
monopolies.
Declines in nine sectors, but consumer sector unscathed. Every
stock in nine sectors, excluding monopolies Petronas Gas and KLCCP,
experienced a drop in quarterly sequential earnings. The sectors are
gaming, oil & gas, property, REITs, construction, building materials,
semi-conductors, plantations and toll roads. Consumer stocks and
glove manufacturers showed particular resilience.
An ‘energy dividend’ took effect; monopolies fared well. Lower oil
prices benefited heavy fuel users AirAsia and Tenaga. Their gains were
only partially offset by lower earnings at the oil & gas services
companies. Net profits of Telekom, Tenaga and Petronas Gas, all
effectively monopolies, improved on a quarterly basis although only
Petronas Gas raised prices in 1Q09.
The biggest disappointment and downgrade: 1Q GDP. First quarter
2009 GDP fell 6.2% YoY, against consensus expectations of a 3-4%
drop. We have revised our GDP forecasts to -3.8% in 2009 and +4.0%
YoY in 2010 (previously -1.3% and +3.5% respectively). The
government, to be ahead in the expectations game, is projecting 2009
GDP growth of -4% to -5%. The silver lining is the government is now
under greater pressure to implement its fiscal stimulus plans quickly.
A reversal of fortune ahead for construction, building materials.
Despite uniformly lower earnings this 1Q, we believe the construction
and building materials sectors are only 2-3 quarters away from
improved revenues. Share prices of stocks in these sectors will likely
be driven by newsflow from the fiscal stimulus rather than earnings.
Be realistic, be selective. We believe this market rally has pushed
valuations to the point where growth expectations have reached
implausible levels. In fact, profits have just begun to turn down. We are
not overly bearish – our Buy list is longer than our Sell list – but we
caution that optimism over growth can disappear as quickly as it
appeared. Domestic factors, particularly political developments, may
be a positive catalyst.
Profit recession has just begun. Industrial production peaked in
January 2008, but profits only began a broad-based decline in 1Q09.
Within our coverage, 63% of the companies that have released 1Q
earnings reported lower sequential quarterly net profits. In seven
sectors, our entire coverage list suffered profit contractions. This
suggests the recession in profits has just begun.
Market valuation implies an optimistic view of growth. The market
currently trades at 15.2x 2009 earnings, up from 12x earlier this year.
This is only 10% below the previous cycle’s mid-cycle value, but today,
we face growth of -7.7% (2009) and +9.7% (2010), taking market
earnings only 1% higher by the end of 2010 from its end-2008 level.
Market growth expectations seem to be running ahead of reality.
History tells us the bear market isn’t over. Two previous bear
markets over 1981-86 and 1993-98 lasted 57 and 58 months
respectively. It has now been 17 months from the January 2008
collapse. Those bear markets had 22-38 trend reversals of 5% or more;
we have now seen 12 since January 2008. These comparisons suggest
we are, at best, half way through this bear market.
Bet on Prime Minister Najib, but Sell hope. Our top stock picks are
in the construction sector. We expect PM Najib will deliver on the fiscal
spending promises, reinvigorating the construction and building
materials sectors. Our top Sells are stocks where high hopes and
expectations have been built in; where current prices have run well
ahead of both our and consensus target prices.
Politics a positive wildcard. Beyond rapidly executed fiscal packages,
the country’s new leadership could make further changes to longstanding
policies to attract foreign investment and win back broader
support from all Malaysians. These initiatives should be positive for
equity market at least in the short-term.
• 1Q09 adex data point south. Although total gross adex for Jan-Mar 09 shrank
3.9%, it was better than the 20% contraction seen after the 1997-8 Asian financial
crisis. The worst performer was the newspaper segment which saw a 9% decline
compared with a 3.7% growth for TV adex. But ad volume visibility extends only 2-3
months out, leaving question marks over advertising commitments for 2H09.
• Downbeat expectations. The lacklustre adex showing in Jan-Mar 09 ties in with
the 1Q09 results reported by Media Prima and NSTP. It also confirmed the
generally bearish expectations of the media companies since the beginning of the
year, with a few being taken by surprise by the magnitude of the deceleration. Our
previous 2009 projection of an adex range of 1.1% contraction to 6% growth does
not hold and we now revise it to 6-10% adex contraction.
• Newspapers at risk. Fundamental risks could be more severe for newspaper
companies as newspaper adspend continues to take a hit from depressed GDP
data. Although there are signs of resilience in the Malay newspaper segment, this
does not mean total immunity against the potential worsening of adex volume in the
coming months. The top Malay newspaper NST’s Harian Metro is the main winner
but this is not expected to help the group much given that Harian Metro is a small
contributor.
• Indicators leading at inflection point? We concur with our economic research
team’s view that the CLI could hit the trough in Jun-Aug 09 and that the economic
recovery from the trough is likely to take at least 12 months given the severity of the
current global crisis. Advertisers should reposition their spending for a gradual
recovery from 2010. Historical trends suggest that adex in Malaysia should recover
in 1Q2010 based on a 3-6 months’ lag period.
• End-2009 a good potential entry point. We believe end-09 will be a good re-entry
point for exposure to selected media stocks as positives such as earnings visibility,
improved sentiment of advertisers, cheaper newsprint and gradual economic
recovery are likely to kick in as catalysts then. We will monitor closely the situation
on the ground and official stats but so far, adex for the months ahead appears to be
southbound. The share prices of media companies have recovered somewhat since
the start of the year and we fail to see any additional near-term re-rating catalysts.
• Staying NEUTRAL on media sector for now. In view of this, we maintain our
NEUTRAL stance on the media sector but recommend investors to switch to Astro
(Trading Buy) which has very little exposure to adex and minimal downside risks to
its Malaysian operations where the subscriber trend could turn out to be resilient.
We remain NEUTRAL on Media Prima (MPR MK), Star Publications (STAR MK)
and Media Chinese International (MCIL MK). NSTP is kept as an
UNDERPERFORM
• Palm oil stocks at 22-month low but… Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell for the fifth
straight month to a 22-month low of 1.29m tonnes at end-Apr 09 as exports and
domestic consumption exceeded domestic palm oil production.
• … at high end of expectations. Stocks fell 5.4% mom to 1.29m tonnes, which is at
the high end of market expectations ranging from 1.2m tonnes to 1.3m tonnes. The
decline in inventory is bullish for CPO price as it suggests tight palm oil supplies for
Malaysia, a key palm oil producer.
• Stock level may have hit trough in April. Our rough modelling, which assumes
the mom growth pattern for production and exports in the month of May will be
similar to the historical 3-year average growth pattern, suggests that Malaysia’s
CPO stocks could rise 5% mom to around 1.35m tonnes in May due to higher
production and lower exports.
• CPO price forecast intact. For the first four months of the year, average CPO price
fell 41% yoy to RM2,031 per tonne. This is marginally higher than our 2009 CPO
price forecast of RM1,950 per tonne due to lower-than-expected soybean harvests
from Argentina and weaker palm oil production from Malaysia and Indonesia. We
maintain our view that CPO prices will remain firm in the next few months due to
current tight supplies and potential further downgrade in Argentina soybean
harvests but are likely to trend lower in 3Q when palm oil supply improves and
demand weakens due to the higher selling prices. That said, the recent CPO price
strength has taken us by surprise due to deteriorating soybean crop prospects for
Argentina. In view of lower-than-expected yields, Oil World has cut its current-year
soybean crop estimates for Argentina by a further 1.5m tonnes to 33m tonnes last
week or a decline of 28.5% yoy. Although we are not changing our CPO price
forecasts of RM1,950 per tonne for 2009 and RM2,150 per tonne for 2010, there is
RM100-200 potential upside to our forecast for 2009 in view of the recent
downgrade of soybean supply from Argentina.
• Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our earnings forecasts for all the Malaysian planters
remain intact, along with our UNDERWEIGHT stance on the Malaysian planters due
to their expensive valuations relative to their regional peers. Potential de-rating
catalysts for the Malaysian planters are falling CPO price in 3Q, lower crude oil price
and improved weather prospects in major planting areas. Our only pick in the
Malaysian plantation sector is Sime Darby as the stock stands to benefit from the
move towards the new FBM 30 index, has the lowest P/E multiple and foreign
shareholding among the three largest big-cap planters in Malaysia and may engage
in earnings-enhancing M&As. We maintain our preference for the Singapore-listed
planters.
• Some glimmers of hope… Rays of hope are permeating the semiconductor
industry, which probably saw most of the bad news in 1QCY09. Global chip sales
improved slightly in Mar 09 with a 30.0% yoy decline compared with a 30.1% yoy
fall in Feb 09. The book-to-bill ratio has ticked up with preliminary Mar 09 numbers
hitting 0.61x, up from Feb 09’s abysmal 0.47x. Finally, utilisation rates have scraped
bottom as some production facilities have been shuttered and inventory control is
being exercised. The end-user markets appear to have troughed, with PC and
handset sales probably hitting the bottom. Furthermore, trade credit is now
normalising. That said, stabilisation does not equate to a recovery and we believe
that restocking activity as inventory runs low is the primary factor in the improving
outlook. We still expect 2009 to be a difficult year where the typical seasonal pick up
in 3Q may not materialise given the current re-stocking activities.
• …but no full-blown recovery until 2010. We argue that a true recovery will only
take root when the global economy begins to move upwards. A meaningful and
sustained recovery will only take place when consumer sentiment and spending
spring back to life and cause ASPs to start rising. We believe that a more
convincing uptrend will take hold only from 2H10 onwards.
• Global economies to start stabilising towards year-end. Our economists believe
that the world economy will feel the full impact of the global financial crisis this year.
Although the process of sorting out the financial system will take time and
resources, the cumulative effects of sizeable fiscal stimuli and aggressive monetary
easing globally will work to provide some stability. Recent global indicators are less
negative. Considering the extremely low base this year, global growth should pick
up in 2010 but will probably fall short of its long-run average growth rate of 3.7%.
• Upgrade sector to TRADING BUY. While the fundamentals for the sector remain
uncertain, we think that downside to share prices is limited as valuations are still
below trough levels. We upgrade the sector from Underperform to TRADING BUY.
Furthermore, in line with our market strategy, we think that investors’ risk appetite is
increasing and higher beta plays such as semicon should be in vogue. Investors
should start picking up semicon stocks ahead of the recovery of the sector as
historically, the share prices for both MPI and Unisem cratered 13-18 months before
the upturn of the sector. Sector catalysts include a) a sooner-than-expected revival
of end-user demand and b) a faster-than-expected economic recovery.
• Upgrade Unisem and MPI to Trading Buy. In tandem with the sector upgrade, we
upgrade MPI and Unisem from Underperform to Trading Buy. We raise our target
prices for both after cutting our discounts to their 5-year historical average by 30-
60% pts to 20-40% for Unisem and MPI respectively. We assign a lower discount to
Unisem, our top pick, as its higher liquidity and beta make it a better play on a
market rebound. Re-rating catalysts include a) qoq improvement in earnings, b)
revival of end demand and c) the higher betas on offer.
We expect transactions to fall and prices to ease in 2009, in line with the projected 3%
real GDP contraction. Transactions could fall 20-30% or as much as 35-50% in the
worst-case scenario, matching the performance during the 1997/8 Asian financial
crisis. However, most major developers have pushed out innovative financing
schemes to lure buyers. Response has been mixed, with good response garnered by
the likes of SP Setia (RM500m sales) and Mah Sing (RM170m sales) but lacklustre
sales for many other developers
More excitement ahead. The eventual award of the RM1.3b Pahang-
Selangor raw water transfer tunnel works on 28 Apr confirms that the
new administration sees the urgency for construction in stimulating the
economy. Langat 2 should be next in the limelight, together with the
massive Klang Valley LRT system. We expect more positive news flow
over the near-term. Continue to Overweight Construction.
Langat 2 next. Langat 2, the downstream portion of the water transfer
project, comprises a 2,180 mld treatment plant and the distribution
pipelines. The estimated RM5b construction contract was awarded in
Feb ’08 to Kumpulan Darul Ehsan, which holds 60% of Kumpulan
Perangsang Selangor (KPS). As KPS does not have a major
construction arm, we think that potential beneficiaries are Gamuda, Loh
& Loh and Taliworks, which have had working experience with, and/or
are affiliated to KPS via shareholdings.
Klang Valley LRT to follow. Local companies have been invited to
submit “expressions of interest” for the LRT extension and upgrading
works, with the government keen to see construction works start within
the next 3-4 months, according to today’s Edge. The extension works
could cost RM7b, including RM1b to buy rolling stocks. Our view is that
the project may be parcelled out and experienced contractors like IJM,
Gamuda, UEM Builders and YTL Corp may bid as turnkey contractors.
Overweight Construction. We continue to expect mid-sized projects
to lead the momentum of construction sector recovery under the fiscal
stimulus. Meanwhile, the inter-state water transfer (including Langat 2)
and Klang Valley LRT extension are also two priority projects under the
9th Malaysia Plan with works expected to start before the decade turns.
IJM, WCT and HSL remain on our Buy list. Meanwhile, Gamuda is a
strong contender for the two mega water and LRT projects. Our Hold
call on the stock is under review, with upward revision potential.
A milestone for the sector. We take a positive view of this news as it is a significant
milestone for the water sector. The timing of the award was a slight surprise as we
had expected the recent cabinet reshuffle to result in a slight delay for the project
award following the award of the letter of intent (LOI) to the Shimizu consortium a few
months back. The water transfer project is the first mega job to be rolled out under the
9MP after the announcement of the second stimulus package in Mar 09. Our channel
checks indicate that the tunnelling job will move fairly quickly from here on and the
notification to start work should be received in a matter of days. Once site possession
is obtained, major resource mobilisation will be underway, including Shimizu’s
positioning of the tunnel boring machine (TBM) near the Titiwangsa range. We think
that actual work could start within a month, suggesting a mid-2014 timeframe for
completion of the project.
No details on scope of works. Details of the scope of works are not available. IJM’s
share of works based on its 20% stake works out to RM260m or just RM26m profit
enhancement assuming a 10% pretax margin. We are not revising our earnings
forecasts as the RM260m share of works is already part of our assumption for new
contracts for IJM. That said, the award of the project raises IJM’s profile as it is one of
the main contractors of the country’s largest water infrastructure project.
Focus will now shift to the remaining major components of the water transfer project,
i.e. the Kelau dam and the Langat 2 water treatment plant. We expect the feasibility
studies for both to be concluded sometime in early 2H09, making way for the
tendering process. We gather that the Shimizu consortium is eyeing the Kelau dam
job which has an estimated value of roughly double the tunnelling job. This suggests
that IJM’s potential share of works could be more than RM500m.
The banking sector in Malaysia saw stable loan growth of 10.9% year-over-year in March 2009, driven partly by a 20-30% jump in loans to government agencies and non-bank financial institutions. However, leading loan indicators remained subdued and loan growth is expected to slow significantly to 2-3% in 2009 due to weaker economic conditions. Non-performing loan ratios continued to improve in March. The report maintains a neutral outlook on Malaysian banks, expecting them to perform better than anticipated despite the economic downturn.
BANKING Mar 09 Statistics Some ResilienceBoyboy cute
Positive signs. Loan disbursements, repayments, applications and
approvals rebounded with strong double-digit MoM growth, flattish-tolow-
teens YoY growth, and in absolute term, were back to pre-Aug/Sep
’08 levels. Absolute NPLs continued to inch lower, mainly from the
working capital segment. Nonetheless, it is early to tell whether these
are sustainable as global fundamentals remain weak.
Strong loan disbursements and repayments. Banking loans (net of
repayments) grew to RM733.9m in Mar ’09 (+0.6% MoM, +10.9% YoY)
on expansion in both household (+0.4% MoM, +8.8% YoY) and
business loans (+0.9% MoM, +9.5% YoY). The pace of disbursements
and repayments was strong (disbursements: +27.4% MoM, +9% YoY;
repayments: +15.7% MoM, +4.8% YoY), mainly for working capital.
YTD loans growth was +1% (household: +1.5%, business: +0.5%).
Forward indicators bounced MoM but still flattish YoY. Loan
applications and approvals also rebounded strongly: +24.3% MoM and
+35.3% MoM respectively. On a YoY comparison, loan applications
were up 4.7%, driven by household loan applications (+21.5%), mainly
for home purchases, which off-set lower applications from businesses
(-11%). Overall loan approvals were rather flattish YoY, with approvals
up for household loans (+12.6%) but down for business loans (-13%).
Absolute NPLs contracted further. Absolute gross NPLs continued
to inch lower, at a slightly higher pace of -3.7% MoM to RM33.6b (Feb
‘09: -0.04% MoM). On a 3-month comparison (see table in page 4),
the lower NPLs came mainly from the working capital segment,
reflecting perhaps resilient business strength. Meanwhile, net NPL ratio
was little changed at 2.24% (Feb ‘09: 2.23%).
Remain Underweight. YTD loans growth, if sustained, should lead to
the upper end of our 2-3% loans growth forecast for 2009. Our other
assumption is for absolute NPLs to expand by 50% YoY by end-2009,
leading to a projected 10% decline in combined net profit for 2009.
While loans quality was resilient in Mar ’09, we remain concerned over
rising NPLs – our analysis shows a 3-6 months interval from GDP
trough to NPL peak. The other main risk is a protracted economic
slowdown leading to rising unemployment and asset deflation.
This document summarizes the Malaysian government's recent liberalization measures for the country's financial services sector. Key points include:
1) Allowing up to 7 new licenses for foreign commercial and Islamic banks, with 4 in 2009 and 3 in 2011 that can be wholly foreign owned.
2) Increasing the foreign equity limit for domestic insurance, takaful, and investment banks to 70% from 49% previously.
3) Providing greater operational flexibility for foreign commercial banks, such as allowing microfinance branches and new regular branches.
4) The changes follow Malaysia's gradual "managed approach" to financial sector liberalization outlined in its 2001 Financial Sector Master Plan.
Bank Negara announced yesterday measures for further liberalisation of the financial
sector:
Increase in foreign equity limits. The foreign equity limit for investment banks,
Islamic banks, insurance companies and takaful operators has been raised from 49%
to 70%. It is envisaged that these institutions’ business potential and growth prospects
will be enhanced by the international expertise and global networks of foreign
shareholders. However, the cap on foreign shareholdings in domestic commercial
banks remains at 30%.
New banking and Takaful licences up for grabs. New licences will be issued to
strong and world-class players in the following categories:
• In 2009, up to two new Islamic banking licences will be issued to foreign players to
establish new Islamic banks with paid-up capital of at least US$1bn.
• In 2009, up to two new commercial banking licences will be issued to foreign
players that will bring in specialised expertise.
• In 2011, up to three new commercial banking licences will be dished out to worldclass
banks that can offer significant value propositions to Malaysia.
• In 2009, up to two new family takaful licences will be made available.
Greater operational flexibility for foreign banks. Locally-incorporated foreign
commercial banks can establish up to 10 microfinance branches with immediate
effect. Further branches will be considered based on the effectiveness of these
branches in servicing microenterprises. Foreign banks will also be allowed to establish
up to four new branches in 2010 based on the distribution ratio of 1 branch in market
centres, 2 in semi-urban areas and 1 in non-urban areas.
Locally-incorporated foreign insurance companies and takaful operators are now
allowed to set up branches nationwide without restriction. The restriction against these
companies entering into bancassurance/bankatakaful arrangements with banking
institutions has been lifted.
Other liberalisation. Banks, insurance companies and takaful operators now have
greater flexibility to employ specialist expatriates with expertise to continue the
development of Malaysia’s financial system. Offshore financial institutions that meet
the predetermined criteria will be given the flexibility to have a physical presence
onshore – from 2010 for banking institutions and from 2011 for insurance companies.
Comments
Liberalisation well expected. The further liberalisation of the financial sector is within
our and market expectations as it is in line with the objectives laid out in the Financial
Sector Master Plan (FSMP) issued in 2001. Furthermore, the government has alluded
to announcements on this matter this week.
Upping foreign equity limits for Islamic and investment banks... However, it is a
surprise to us that Bank Negara has increased the foreign equity limits for Islamic and
investment banks from 49% to 70% as this means that foreigners will control these
entities. It appears that the authorities view the relaxation as necessary to attract more
foreign players into the Malaysian market to help develop these segments.
…but not for commercial banks. We are also surprised that the government did not
increase the 30% foreign equity limit for domestic commercial banks, which is
something the market had been looking forward to. An increase in the equity limit for
• B-Toto is worth a bet now as i) its core gaming operations remained resilient even
during the post-CNY off-peak period and appear likely to surpass our 6-7% gaming
revenue growth target for FY4/09, ii) 2009’s special draw allocations for all three
NFOs could take place over the next few weeks and iii) there is upside potential to its
6-8% gross dividend yield based on its policy of a minimum payout of 75% if B-Toto
dishes out higher dividends to lend its parent a helping hand.
• Adjusting earnings but implied yields still decent. We raise our FY09-11’s
revenue per draw growth assumptions by 2-4% pts following the stronger-thanexpected
YTD showing. But FY10-11’s bottomline is lowered by 4-5% as we also
raise our blended prize payout assumption from 62-64% to 63-64% to better reflect
the payout trends seen so far. FY09’s numbers are largely intact despite these
adjustments. Even after a 3-5% cut in our FY10-11 DPS projections (unchanged
80% payout ratio), our forecasts still imply a decent yield.
• Reiterate OUTPERFORM. Our DPS downgrades trim our end-CY09 target price
from RM5.95 to RM5.65, based on an unchanged 5% discount to its DDM value. We
continue to like B-Toto for its steady, low-risk topline growth, superior ROEs and
sustainable dividend yields. Being a low-beta stock, B-Toto may fall out of favour in a
rising market. However, we flag the likelihood of bumper dividends over the short
term. This is a potential share price catalyst that underpins our OUTPERFORM
recommendation, along with the normalisation of luck factor and market share gains.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Government Accounting in Nigeria
Being a Paper Presented at the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Budget Office Staff at Sojourner Hotel, GRA, Ikeja Lagos on Saturday 8th June, 2024.
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Discovering Delhi - India's Cultural Capital.pptxcosmo-soil
Delhi, the heartbeat of India, offers a rich blend of history, culture, and modernity. From iconic landmarks like the Red Fort to bustling commercial hubs and vibrant culinary scenes, Delhi's real estate landscape is dynamic and diverse. Discover the essence of India's capital, where tradition meets innovation.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
How to Identify the Best Crypto to Buy Now in 2024.pdfKezex (KZX)
To identify the best crypto to buy in 2024, analyze market trends, assess the project's fundamentals, review the development team and community, monitor adoption rates, and evaluate risk tolerance. Stay updated with news, regulatory changes, and expert opinions to make informed decisions.
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
Every business, big or small, deals with outgoing payments. Whether it’s to suppliers for inventory, to employees for salaries, or to vendors for services rendered, keeping track of these expenses is crucial. This is where payment vouchers come in – the unsung heroes of the accounting world.
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
Markets rallied in May, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month, said Sam Millette, director of fixed income, in his latest Market Risk Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
KLCI TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. ALPHA EDGE
17 April 2009
CIMB Research Report
Global equity technicals
Lock your profits
Nigel Foo +60 (3) 2084-9293 – nigel.foo@cimb.com
Kong Seh Siang +60 (3) 2084-9289 – sehsiang.kong@cimb.com
• Uptrend ending soon? The recent behaviour of equity markets fits our preferred
wave count for the DJIA and regional markets. The DJIA’s rebound since early Mar
should be ending soon with the completion of the diagonal triangle (wedge). This
should be the completion of the wave “a” rally since early Mar.
• Correction ahead? If we are right, this should be followed by the corrective wave
“b” which could take anywhere between two and six weeks to complete and will be
followed by the final bullish wave “c” up leg.
• Support at 50-day SMA and 50-61.8% FR. We expect the DJIA to retreat to
7,110-7,318, based on the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Mar rally. The
other key support level is the 50-day SMA at 7,537pts. A break below the 61.8%
FR would be a major concern for the outlook of the US market.
• Asia also completing wave “a”? Based on our preferred wave count, Asian
equity markets are also probably completing their wave a” rebound this week. The
MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (MAxJ) has rallied by more than 35% since its early
Mar bottom of 240 and is long overdue for a correction. The daily RSI is
overbought at 72 and the index is also facing major resistance at the upper
trendline channel and the 200-day SMA at 327pts.
• Alternative wave count is possible. Also possible is our alternative wave count,
which sees Asian markets completing the wave 4 rebound which began in Oct 08
and would followed by a final wave 5 down leg, below Oct-08 lows. But this is a
low-probability scenario at this point as we believe the US market is going through
the major wave “B” rebound which is likely to last until Jul-Oct 09. Asian markets
are expected to join in this wave “B” rebound.
• How will we know? Whether the preferred or alternative wave count is in play
depends very much on how deep the coming correction is. A correction below the
61.8% FR of the Mar rebound would be an early sign that our alternative wave
count could be taking place.
Preferred wave count for MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (326)
Resistance at channel
and 200-day SMA
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
2. Lock your profits
Uptrend ending soon? The recent behaviour of equity markets fits our preferred
wave count for the DJIA and regional markets. The DJIA’s rebound since early Mar
should be ending soon with the completion of the diagonal triangle (wedge). This
should be the completion of the wave “a” rally since early Mar.
Correction ahead? If we are right, this should be followed by the corrective wave “b”
which could take anywhere between two and six weeks to complete and will be
followed by the final bullish wave “c” up leg.
Figure 1: Preferred wave count for DJIA (8,125)
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
Support at 50-day SMA and 50-61.8% FR. We expect the DJIA to retreat to 7,110-
7,318, based on the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Mar rally. The other key
support level is the 50-day SMA at 7,537pts. A break below the 61.8% FR would be a
major concern for the outlook of the US market.
Figure 2: Preferred wave count for DJIA’s hourly chart (8,125)
Diagonal triangle (wedge) completed?
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
3. Asia also completing wave “a”. Based on our preferred wave count, Asian equity
markets are also probably completing their wave a” rebound this week. The MSCI
Asia ex-Japan Index (MAxJ) has rallied by more than 35% since its early Mar bottom
of 240 and is long overdue for a correction. The daily RSI is overbought at 72 and the
index is also facing major resistance at the upper trendline channel and the 200-day
SMA at 327pts.
Support at 50-day SMA. MAxJ’s likely pullback over the next 2-4 weeks could see
the index bottoming only at the 50-day SMA at 278pts. A 50-61.8% FR of the Mar-
rebound targets support between 273 and 284pts.
Figure 3: Preferred wave count for MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (326)
Resistance at channel
and 200-day SMA
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
Alternative wave count is also possible. Also possible is our alternative wave
count, which sees Asian markets completing the wave 4 rebound which began in Oct
08 and would followed by a final wave 5 down leg, below Oct-08 lows. But this is a
low-probability scenario at this point as we believe the US market is going through the
major wave “B” rebound which is likely to last until Jul-Oct 09. Asian markets are
expected to join in this wave “B” rebound.
How will we know? Whether the preferred or alternative wave count is in play
depends very much on how deep the coming correction is. A correction below the
61.8% FR of the Mar rebound would be an early sign that our alternative wave count
could be taking place.
Figure 4: Alternative wave count for MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (326)
Resistance at channel
and 200-day SMA
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
[3]
4. Technical views on selected Asian equity indices
Malaysia’s KLCI – Look for wedge breakdown
The KLCI surpassed our wave “a” target of 955-960pts, reaching 969.9pts on
Wednesday morning before the correction kicked in. The daily chart shows a bearish
wedge formation. A breakdown below the wedge at the 961pt support would confirm
the end of the rebound that started in early Mar. The daily RSI is extremely
overbought at 76, a likely sign of more downside over the next week. The major
resistance is 964pts, which is the 200-day SMA. Any pullback should find support at
the 888pt 50-day SMA and the 50-61.8% FR of the current rebound, between 887
and 903pts.
Figure 5: Preferred wave count for Malaysia’s KLCI (961)
Bearish wedge at
961 support
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
Singapore’s STI – Taking a breather?
Singapore’s STI surpassed our wave “a” target of 1,920pts and climbed to a high of
1,947pts yesterday. In its pullback, the index is expected to find support at the 50-day
SMA at 1,667pts and also the 50-61.8% FR of this rebound, between 1,644 and
1,702pts. The immediate support trend line is at 1,840.
Figure 6: Revised preferred wave count for Singapore’s STI (1,891)
Immediate support
trend line at 1840!
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
5. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng – 50-day SMA support?
The Hang Seng Index went past our 15,600pt wave ”a” target yesterday when it
reached 15,977pts. We expect a sharp pullback over the next 1-2 weeks towards the
50-day SMA (13,358) and also the 50-61.8% FR of the recent rebound, i.e. the
13,114-13,660 levels. The immediate support is at 14,850pt. The daily RSI is holding
just above its support trend line but this support is expected to give way soon.
Figure 7: Revised preferred wave count for Hong Kong’s HSI (15,582)
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
Indonesia’s JCI – Not sustainable?
Indonesia’s JCI reached 1,641pts yesterday, surpassing our 1,560pt wave “a” target.
The index broke above its upper resistance trend line channel which we think it might
not sustain. At 77, the RSI is overbought and we expect the index to correct soon.
The key support levels are expected to be the 50-day SMA at 1,370pts and the 50-
61.8% FR, between 1,396 and 1,443pts. The near-term support trend lines are at
1,610 and 1,520pts.
Figure 8: Revised preferred wave count for Indonesia’s JCI (1,625)
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
6. Thailand’s SET – In uptrend channel
Thailand’s SET has been trading in an uptrend channel since early Mar. However, its
upside in the near term could be capped by the resistance trend line channel at
455pts. If the index draws back, there should be buying support at the 50-day SMA of
431. The 50-61.8% FR of this rebound targets support between 427 and 433pts. The
immediate support trend line is at 435.
Figure 9: Preferred wave count for Thailand’s SET (452)
Resistance trend line
Source: Bloomberg & CIMB/CIMB-GK
[6]
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The term “CIMB” shall denote where applicable the relevant entity distributing the report in that particular jurisdiction where mentioned specifically below shall be a CIMB
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(i) As of 16 Apr 2009, CIMB has a proprietary position in the following securities in this report:
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(ii) As of 17 Apr 2009, the analyst, Nigel Foo and Kong Seh Siang who prepared this report, has an interest in the securities in the following company or companies
covered or recommended in this report:
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[7]
8. New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of, and for the
purposes of their business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978.
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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #1*
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next
12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3
months.
TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3
months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be
temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
CIMB-GK Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
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9. RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #2 **
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or
better over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has
12 months. either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of
+15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly
expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the
next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
next 12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or
worse over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or
better over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
3 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or
worse over the next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the
prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
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