This document provides an overview of opportunities in commodity markets from Kedia Advisory, a leading commodities advisory company in India. It discusses how COVID-19 has impacted commodity prices and markets. It then covers various strategies for trading commodities, including directional trading, spreads, and quantitative strategies. Chart patterns like Ichimoku clouds are presented as technical analysis tools for identifying opportunities. Fundamental factors like supply and demand balances as well as weather are also discussed. Specific opportunities in agricultural commodities and crude oil are highlighted. The document aims to equip investors with insights for profiting from movements in commodity prices.

1. Technical Analysis & Opportunity
in Commodities Markets
-AJAY SURESH KEDIA

2. ABOUT KEDIA ADVISORY
• KEDIA Advisory is a leading SEBI registered Advisory Company.
• Having unparalleled service history of 17 years.
• Mr. Ajay Kedia is the Founder and Director of Kedia Advisory.
• He is well known in the industry for his dynamism and execution
capabilities. Born into a reputed business family, He is the motivating
force behind Kedia’s highly acclaimed Research team.
• His ability to produce views from technical as well as fundamental
perspectives has provided impetus to building Kedia’s strong market
research team.
• Research-based & personalized advisory services are Kedia’s forte,
and he has undoubtedly been the brain behind it. A genius with hands-
on experience in analyzing the markets in depth.
• He facilitates investors to identify healthy opportunity by looking for
positive deviations in the Market, using his tried and tested techniques.
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3. MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
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 COVID-19 has been accompanied by widespread declines in commodity prices.
 The combination of both major demand and supply shocks occurring simultaneously.
 The mitigation measures taken to control the spread of the virus have resulted in an unprecedented
collapse in oil.
 In the short-run, in addition to weaker demand, disruptions to supply chains could cause dislocations
in the consumption and production of other commodities and imperil food security.
 Gold prices back on bullish track after COVID-19
 Energy prices have plummeted since the start of the year, led by crude oil, which has fallen 70
percent since its peak in January.
 Nat gas prices are forecast to decline by 25% in 2020, reflecting their links to oil prices.
 Most agricultural commodity prices have been broadly stable
 Most food commodity prices declined in response to mitigation measures to contain the spread of the
COVID-19 pandemic, record production for some grains, and favorable weather conditions in key
producing regions.
 Metal prices are projected to fall by 13.2 percent in 2020 on expectations of prolonged public health
and economic crises.

4. WHAT HAS BEEN THE IMPACT
THUS
FAR ON COMMODITY
MARKETS?
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 Reduced energy demand for travel.
 Lower demand during economic downturn.
 Disruption to supply chains
 Disruptions to agricultural commodity production.
 Disruptions to industrial commodity production.
 Adverse impact of policy responses
 Changing consumer behaviour
The impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets may persist for an extended
period. In the short-term, the deepening economic contraction may further
reduce demand for industrial commodities, causing additional declines in
prices. Continuing mitigation measures may increasingly impact supply
chains, potentially threatening food security for the most vulnerable groups.

5. WHY COMMODITY ?
Agri-Commodity Cost Effectiveness
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List of Agri Commodities on which CTT is not applicable
Almond Jeera (Cumin Seed) Coriander/Dhaniya Red Chilli
Barley Kapas Cotton Soya Bean/seed
Cardamom Maize Feed Kapasia Khali Soymeal
Castor Seed Pepper Guar Seed Turmeric
Chana/Gram Rape/Mustard Seed Isabgul Seed Wheat

6. MAJOR STRATEGIES FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE
AGRI COMMODITY PRICES
• Direct Investing / Directional trading : Trading
in commodities futures is quite similar to equity
futures trading. You could take a long position or
a short position.
• Cash-n-carry : This can be used between
spot/physical and future prices of a commodity.
• Calender Spread : In case of spread, will look to
take benefit from the price differentiation between
various contracts of the same commodity.
• Inter-exchange : The price difference for the
same commodity on various exchanges with the
same contract expiry can be exploited as an
interexchange arbitrage opportunity.
• Risk & Return
• Imbalance between Demand and Supply
• Weather conditions
• Economic and Political Conditions
• Government policies
• Import/Export
• Inflation
• Seasonal variations
• Currency movements
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7. DATA POINT FOR COMMODITY MARKET
• CFTC Report
• LME / LME Inventories
• API / EIA Inventories
• Geo political tensions
• US Data
• Economic Policy
• Forex Movement
• Central Banks
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• USDA Reports
• WASDE Reports
• NAFED
• IMD
• SOPA
• American Soybean Association (ASA)
• Cotton Association of India (CAI)
• International Cotton Association (ICA)
• Advance estimates by the farm ministry.
• Global Weather Report
• Crop Diseases
• Size of Land Cultivated
• Political Environment
• Trade Constraints, Subsidies,
Taxes
• Economic Policy
• Cost Of Physical Storage
• Mandi Update

8. STRATEGIES & IDEAS
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• Arbitrage Based Opportunities
• Pair Strategies
a) Commodity to Commodity
b) Commodity to Currency
c) Commodity to Equity
• Harmonic/Chart based Strategies
• Option Strategies
• Quants based Strategies
• Fundamental / Weather / Govt Policies
• Trading / Jobbing / Positional Trade based on International Markets

9. WHY COMMODITY ?
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10. WHY COMMODITY ?
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11. TECHNICAL
CHARTS
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TRADING COMMODITIES
WITH
TECHNICAL CHARTS

12. TECHNICAL
CHARTS
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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)
Ichimoku Cloud

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)
Ichimoku Cloud Components and Calculations
1. The RED LINE in Figure 1 is Tenkan-Sen (Conversion Line). It’s the
midpoint of the last nine price bars: [(9-period high + 9-period low)/2].
2. The BLUE LINE is Kijun-sen (Base Line). It’s the midpoint of the last
26 price bars: [(26-period high + 26-period low)/2].
3. The GREEN LINE is Senkou Span A (Leading Span A). It’s the
midpoint of the above two lines: [(Conversion Line + Base Line)/2]. This
value is plotted 26 periods into the future.
4. The RED LINE is Senkou Span B (Leading Span B). It’s the midpoint
of the last 52 price bars: [(52-period high + 52-period low)/2]. This
value is plotted 26 periods into the future.
5. The GREEN LINE is the Chickou Span (Lagging Span), and will
always lag behind the price; it’s the most recent price, plotted 26
periods back.
CLOUD

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)
Ichimoku Cloud
PAST PRESENT
FUTURE

16. TECHNICAL
CHARTS
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NOW LET’S MAKE
THINGS MORE SIMPLE
NOW LET’S MAKE
THINGS MORE SIMPLE

17. CLEAR CHART BASED
OPPORTUNITIES
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18. CLEAR CHART BASED
OPPORTUNITIES
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NORMAL
HEI-KEN-ASHI
RSI
52/48

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)
Ichimoku Cloud
SEL
L
SEL
L
SEL
L
SEL
L

20. TECHNICAL
CHARTS
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STRATEGY
When Lead 1 rises above Lead 2,
CLOUD TURNS GREEN = LOOK TO BUY
When Lead 1 drops below Lead 2,
CLOUD TURNS RED = LOOK TO SELL

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)
Weak Signal

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)
Strong Signal

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

29. Page 29Sunday, May 10, 2020KEDIA ADVISORY |
Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

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Ichimoku Cloud
Strategies
(Multi-Confirmation Strategy)

31. TECHNICAL
CHARTS
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Quant Based
Opportunities
Quant Based
Opportunities

32. QUANT BASED OPPORTUNITIE
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Attributes 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 (E) 2019-20(F)
C/ FStocks 122,569 17,093 41,826 14,722 21,039
Production 231,937 313,531 302,454 366,903 386,960
Total Supply 354,506 330,624 344,280 381,625 407,999
Consumption 181,913 191,008 200,559 210,586 221,116
Exports 155,500 97,790 129,000 150,000 150,000
Total Demand 337,413 288,798 329,559 360,586 371,116
Ending Stocks 17,093 41,826 14,722 21,039 36,883
Stocks/ Use Ratio 9.40% 21.90% 7.34% 9.99% 16.68%
Jeera Balance Sheet
Attributes 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 (E) 2019-20(F)
C/ FStocks 163,000 136,000 206,000 281,000 120,000
Production 408,000 400,000 406,000 333,000 240,000
Imports 25,000 25,000 37,000 82,000 161,235
Total Supply 596,000 561,000 703,000 696,000 521,235
Consumption 420,000 430,000 387,000 309,000 480,000
Exports 40,000 40,000 35,000 35,000 41,235
Total Demand 1,056,000 1,031,000 422,000 425,000 521,235
Ending Stocks 136,000 91,000 281,000 271,000
Stocks/ Use Ratio 32.38% 21.16% 72.61% 87.70% 0.00%
Coriander Balance Sheet
Attributes 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 (E) 2019-20(F)
C/ FStocks 128,000 131,000 111,000 149,000 150,000
Production 967,000 1,051,000 931,000 476,000 532,353
Total Supply 1,095,000 1,182,000 1,042,000 625,000 682,353
Consumption 876,000 898,000 920,000 420,000 580,000
Exports 89,000 125,000 85,000 120,000 102,000
Total Demand 965,000 1,023,000 1,005,000 540,000 682,000
Ending Stocks 131,000 159,000 37,000 115,000
Stocks/ Use Ratio 14.95% 17.71% 4.02% 27.38% 0.00%
Turmeric Balance Sheet

33. PERIOD BASED OPPORTUNITIE
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34. PERIOD BASED OPPORTUNITIE
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35. PERIOD BASED OPPORTUNITIE
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36. PERIOD BASED OPPORTUNITIE
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37. COMMODITIES ADD
DIVERSIFICATION NOT
RISK
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INDIAN MONSOON
ITS IMPACT ON
STOCK MARKET AND AGRI COMMODITY

38. CORRELATION
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39. CORRELATION
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40. COMMODITIES ADD
DIVERSIFICATION NOT
RISK
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41. COMMODITIES ADD
DIVERSIFICATION NOT
RISK
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42. COMMODITIES ADD
DIVERSIFICATION NOT
RISK
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43. CRUDE AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
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44. TECHNICAL
CHARTS
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Commodity Spread
Based Opportunities
Commodity Spread
Based Opportunities

45. COMMODITY SPREAD-
TRADE
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COMMODITY SPREAD-
TRADE

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COMMODITY SPREAD-
TRADE

48. SOYABEAN / RMSEED
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49. GUARGUM /
GUARSEED
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50. SOYOIL / CRUDE PALM
OIL
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51. COTTON / COCUDAKL
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52. HARMONICS WORKS IN COMMODITY
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INTRODUCTION TO HARMONIC
• Harmonic price patterns can be considered high-level technical analysis
that really requires precision and patience. However, if you can master this
one technique, then the benefits can be obtained with certainty!
KEY FEATURES OF
HARMONIC
• The patterns usually offer excellent Risk: Reward ratios
• The patterns are leading, projecting future price moves
in advance
• It can be used on any segments like Equity, Commodity
& Currencies
• It can be used on any time frame
• The price patterns structures and ratios are well defined,
allowing for a mechanical approach;
• Clearly defined pattern invalidation levels, which is
important for a stop loss placement;
• It perfectly fits the market’s law: "Buy low, sell high";
• Harmonic patterns happen frequently.
PATTERNS IN HARMONIC
• The Gartley pattern * The butterfly pattern *
• The Bat pattern *The Crab pattern

53. HARMONICS IN COMMODITY TRADING
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54. HARMONICS IN COMMODITY TRADING
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55. HARMONICS IN AGRI COMMODITY TRADING
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56. HARMONICS IN EQUITY TRADING
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57. HARMONICS IN CURRENCY TRADING
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59. Mr. Ajay Kedia
405, 4th Floor, Orion Business Park, G.B. Road, Kapurbawdi,
Thane West, Thane, Maharashtra 400607
Mobile: 9320096333
Email: info@kediacapital.com
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