This document analyzes various countries and their potential to be breakout nations based on their economic growth and development. It provides SWOT analyses for several countries, including Indonesia, South Korea, Czech Republic, Turkey, and Poland. Indonesia is highlighted as a potential breakout nation due to its high FDI inflows, growing infrastructure spending, development of secondary cities, and young workforce. South Korea is also noted for its consistent growth driven by high R&D spending and innovation.

1. 19/03/2015

2. Automotive and Farm Equipment Sectors

3.  Countries beating Growth Expectations
 Best for Investors with 3-5 yrs of Investment horizon

4. • GDP Growth
• Political Environment
• Govt. Investments & Infrastructure spending
• Development of Tier-II Cities
• FDI & Exports
• Innovation (R&D Expenditure)
• No of billionaires
Trends analyzed by
Touchy-feel Stuff
Macro-Economic Indicators

5. GDP Growth
• Per Capita income
-1.5K India – 5 % Growth Very Poor
-11K Brazil – 5 % Growth  Good
-50 K US – 3% Growth  Spectacular
• ‘Cheap’ In-Country prices is good
• Low prices  Indicative of Competition
$ 4000-$ 5000 Growth rate slows down e.g. China ($ 6000)

6. Political Environment
• Regardless of regime , Quality of Leadership matters
(50 % Democratic & 50 % Autocratic among nations analyzed )
• Govt. spending in Infrastructure as % of GDP
- Brazil- Low %  Stability at any Cost
- China-High % Growth at any Cost
Govt. Investments & Infrastructure Spending

7. Development of Tier II cities
• Economic output should not be focused in one Central Hub
(Thailand  Bangkok problematic..)
• Local Companies Expanding / Investing Abroad :
- India
- S. Africa
- Malaysia
FDI & Exports
Troubling sign!!

8. No of Billionaires
• More no of New Billionaires in a Nation
• From Govt. Patronage Sectors
• Different Production Groups
• India Billionaire Club : Same faces every year

9. • S. Korea 
- Continuous R&D investment & Growth
- Among Top 5 in terms of winning International Patents
- Always at the centre of Boom
- Quick to Release Export Economic Data
• Taiwan 
- More dependant on Ingenuity  “ more open to
outsiders”
S. Korea & Taiwan : 5 Decades of Consistent Growth

10. • Indonesia 
- Attracting FDI investment : $10 Bn/year
- Heavy Govt. Spend on
Infrastructure (32% of GDP)
- Labor cheapest in ASEAN (1/4th of China)
- Fast development of Tier-II cities
- 4th most populous country
- Tourism Revenue
- Reserves of Crude oil , Coal, Palm oil
and Nickel
On the Tiger Road : Indonesia

11. • Advantage:
- Poland
- Czech Rep
Currency is not “Euro”
But part of “EU”
The Sweet Spot Of EU..

12. • Russia/Brazil High Dependence on Commodity Exports
• Turkey No Commodity export
Commodity export..

13. • Central Bank tries to control 3 major factors :
 Inflation
 Exchange Rate
 Capital Flows
• Interest rate  Controlled inflation
• Interest rate  Exchange rate goes up..
• Controlling all 3 “ Whack -a -mole”

14. • Long –Term Economic Forecasts are futile
• Every decade has been defined by some idea
• Winners of one decade are often not the winners of next
• Generally countries with lower base rate of per capita
have potential to grow fast
• But may not grow at the same rate in decades…

15. • R&D Spending High , Innovation  USA, S. Korea , Taiwan
• Former Economic leaders slowing down (China, Japan)
• All time Winner S. Korea & Taiwan

16. Czech Republic
Indonesia
Poland & Philippines

17. Less potential to become Breakout Nations
 Thailand- Polarization in Bangkok
 S. Africa- Oligopolies Domination/Stagnant Economy
 Malaysia- Labor import/ Brain drain
 Vietnam- Poor Infrastructure & lack of skilled labor
 Russia- Negative FDI/Corruption/ Commodity Export
 Mexico - Social Inequality/ US Proximity
 Brazil- Commodity Export
 China- 6000 $ per capita Growth likely to slow down
 India- Corruption/ High Context Society
50 %
Chance

18. Breakout Nations
 S. Korea - R&D investments
 Czech Rep. & Poland- Sweet spot of EU
 Indonesia- High FDI investments
 Philippines- Young population / Govt. Investments in
Infrastructure
 Turkey- Govt. Investments in Infrastructure/Lower exposure to
commodity

19. Worlds 4th Most Populous Nation–245
Million
Reserves of Crude oil,Coal,Palm oil and
Nickel
Attracting FDI investment of $10
Bn/year
55% of Earnings from Commodities
Exports account 25% of Economy
Economy Dependent on revenue from
Crude oil
Industries other than Commodities less
developed
Banking system dependent on external
borrowing
 Ease of doing business better than
India due to efficient corruption
Govt. spending heavily on
Infrastructure (32% of GDP)
Labor cheapest in ASEAN (1/4th of
China)
2nd cities developing faster
Economic growth (6% of GDP)
Revenue from Tourism (Bali)
SWOT Analysis: Indonesia
BREAKOUT NATION19/03/2015

20. 7th Largest economy in the world
Highly skilled workforce (3rd highest in
Higher education in world)
8% of Global Car market share
Most dense robot population in the
world
Global leaders in construction of oil
facilities
Service sector stagnant
Banking and Telecommunication not
successful in Korea
House hold debt , Credit card debt
(146% of GDP)
Most of business are family owned –
not attractive for investors as they are
less likely to pay dividends (Korean stocks
available at discounted rates)
 Germany of Asia in Mfg sector
Samsung, LG, Hyundai account for 16%
of GDP
Among top 5 nations in winning
International patents
Ship building industry growing fast
High investment in R&D
SWOT Analysis: South Korea
BREAKOUT NATION
19/03/2015

21.  No Govt. debt
 Small and Medium sized competitive
companies
Well managed govt.& good Local Banks
Only nation in Eastern Europe to have
preserved their brand Skoda (Arm of
VW, but independent in design and
Engg.)
Not willing to joint EU due to Euro-
zone crisis
Dependent on Germany for Exports
Economy vulnerable to EU crisis
 Czech currency Koruna is stable and
inexpensive (Good for exports)
Labor cost is 27% cheaper than
Western Europe
Productivity cost is 40% lower than
Western Europe
SWOT Analysis: Czech Republic
BREAKOUT NATION19/03/2015

22. Current GDP growth of 11%
Stable govt.
Govt. debt 40% of GDP (EU norm <60%
of GDP) 
Population – 79 Million (Avg age 29 yrs)
2nd largest construction industry after
China
80% Govt. Revenue comes from Tax on
industries like Telecom, Automobile&
Gasoline.
Cars more expensive in Turkey than
Europe ( for Automobile imports)
Economy vulnerable to EU crisis
Economy vulnerable to Middle east
political instability
 Turkish Lira stable due to less interest
rates
Exports competitive due to stable Lira
Govt. investing heavily in Infrastructure
FORD,FIAT to move European
operations to Turkey due to inexpensive
labor (labor 75% cheaper than W Europe)
SWOT Analysis: Turkey
BREAKOUT NATION19/03/2015

23.  Debt free country
 Small and Medium sized competitive
companies
 Talented workforce
Good banking system
Central bank is independent of Political
interference
Quality consumer brands presence
Not willing to joint EU due to Euro-
zone crisis
Dependent on Western Europe for
Exports
 Poland currency Zloty is stable and
inexpensive
Labor cost is 27% cheaper than
Western Europe
SWOT Analysis: Poland
BREAKOUT NATION19/03/2015

24. Highly literate population
Key Shipping route pass through
Colombo
Revenue from Tourism
Crude oil reserves
High Govt. debt (80% of GDP)
Business climate rank by World Bank
102nd /180
Post war instability
China investing in Infrastructure (ports)
can act as trade barrier for India
Govt. spend rising in infrastructure
post war
MNC interested in IT outsourcing,
Back office
Banking and Retail MNC
Increase in Cargo traffic at Colombo
port
Oil exploration off west coast by
Reliance – Revenue from Crude oil
SWOT Analysis: Sri Lanka
VERY LIKELY TO BE A BREAKOUT
19/03/2015

25. Highly Skilled Population
Thai corporations not dependent on
external borrowing
40% workforce working in Agriculture
(out ot 60 million population)
High dependence on Exports (30% of
GDP)
2nd cities not developed
Political Instability.
Biggest exporter of Cars (1
Million/year) after Japan and S Korea in
Asia
Good Infrasturture
Revenue from Tourism
SWOT Analysis: Thailand
NOT A BREAKOUT
NATION
19/03/2015

26. Young Population (60% of population
under 25)
Good per capita income $8000
Rich in Natural resources like Rubber &
Palm oil
Delay in Execution of projects
Less skilled workforce
Less attractive to investors
Mfg exports decreasing as Malaysia has
to import labor
Brain Drain of Skilled population
Govt. spend rising in infrastructure
(28% of GDP)
Rubber and Commodity exports
Less govt. debt (50% of GDP)
SWOT Analysis: Malaysia
NOT A BREAKOUT
NATION
19/03/2015

27.  Top exporter of iron ore, Sugar, Coffee,
Soybeans, poultry.
 2 Mn barrels/year oil production
 Brazilian stocks are one of the hottest
Rose 300 % in $ terms in the last decade
 Slow Growth Rate since 1980’s
One of the closed economies till date
 Total imports and exports account for
only 15 % of the GDP
Trade as a share of GDP one of the
lowest among emerging Nations(only 20
%)
 One of the most costliest and
overhyped economies
 Poor productivity growth rate (0.2 %
btw 1980-2008)
 Poor New Infrastructure investment
 imports growing more than exports
recently.
 Struggling to grow even 4% a year
 Recently recognized as World’s tenth
largest oil reserves.
 Huge foreign currency flowing in.
 Rising Stock markets
SWOT Analysis: Brazil
19/03/2015

28.  One of the hottest Stock Markets
 Becoming Multinationals by making
huge profits at home
 Avg Per Capita Income( $11000)
 Concentration of Business in Top
Families
 Stagnant Economy-Power of
Oligopolies
 Local economy not listed in Stock
Market
 High Corruption
 Poor Security System
 One Party Rule & capture of
important positions by the same
 Labor Laws very Pro worker
 Social Inequality
 High Drug trafficking & kidnapping
 Heavily dependent on US Economy
 Highest Migration Rate since 2006
 Competitive labor rates & in proximity
to US – Ray of Hope for Manufacturing
Sector
SWOT Analysis: Mexico
19/03/2015

29. Young Population–90 Million (50%
below 21 yrs
5th largest Reserves of Crude oil,
Copper, Nickel, Gold & Silver
$9 Bn BPO industry (Good English
speaking population)
Consumption 80% of GDP (Higher than
USA)
Poor Infrastructure
High dependence on NRI income (10%
of GDP)
Unstable Govt.
High Emigration.
 Revenue from Tourism
Increasing Per capita income $2500
Govt. spending increasing in
Infrastructure and Industries 
SWOT Analysis: Philippines
NOT A BREAKOUT
NATION
19/03/2015

30.  Abundance of Crude Oil & Natural Gas
 Stable Government
 Ranked 3rd in world for no of
Billionaires(100)
 Poor Infrastructure
 High Inflation
 Poor Growth of Auto, Real Estate &
Consumer Industries
 Weak Banking System
 Ageing population
 Corruption in Public sectors
 Govt. Income Highly dependent on oil
 No Small & Medium Enterprises
 No Global Presence of Russian Brands
 Net FDI is negative
Good R&D and Innovation capabilities
 No Govt. Restrictions in Retail ,
Internet & Media investments
 Reduction in Govt. Stakes in
companies
 Increase in immigrants from Eastern
Europe
SWOT Analysis: Russia
19/03/2015

31. Good per capita income $8000
Worlds largest reserves of Platinum,
Manganese,Gold,Iron ore and Coal
Unemployment (25% of Population)
Frequent Labor strikes
Wages Increasing higher than Inflation
Economy stagnant (3% of GDP)
Oligopolies dominate Industry
High Govt.debt.($750 Bn for Insurance
, pension)
Productivity in Mfg decreasing
Exports of Gold and Platinum
Growth in Mining and Mfg
Demand for Automobiles
SWOT Analysis: South Africa
NOT A BREAKOUT
NATION
19/03/2015

32. Crude oil reserves
54 Sea ports
Population – 90 million
Very poor Infrastructure
Lack of skilled labor
High interest rates (24%)
High Inflation (20%)
Sea Ports underdeveloped
Vietnamese Dong highly unstable
Political inclination towards
communism
 Revenue from Oil exploration
Govt. spend rising in infrastructure
Revenue from Shipping (54 ports)
Low cost Mfg hub for electronic
products (Intel plant)
SWOT Analysis: Vietnam
NOT A BREAKOUT NATION
19/03/2015