The document discusses recent price movements in gold and factors influencing it. It notes that gold has risen sharply due to speculation rather than inflation. While safe haven demands and low yields have supported gold, much of the rise comes from pure speculation as gold acts like a risk asset that is sold off during stock market declines to meet margin calls. The document analyzes technical support and resistance levels for gold and notes the dollar and economic data will influence future gold prices.

1. Gold Is A Reservoir For Needed
Margin Call Money

2. Points To Be Covered Today:
• Gold: Parabolic Financial Speculation, But Not Inflation!
• XAU/USD Recaptures 200-dma As Us Dollar Drops With Yields
• Gold (XAU/USD)
• US Dollar Index (DXY)
• Technical Analysis
• Gold Daily Chart
• Gold Technical & Fundamental Overview
• Gold: Three main ways to get exposure to XAU/USD – Morgan Stanley
• Gold News & Analysis

3. Gold: Parabolic Financial Speculation, But Not
Inflation!
• Gold is in parabolic mode. Everyone loves it. Inflation and safe haven and the end
of the dollar are the rationales.
• 1) This is not inflation. If it were, corn (green line overlaid) and all the other real stuff
would be blowing off. It isn’t.
• 2) This is not the end of the dollar yet; if it were, why are emerging market
currencies struggling? We expect one more corrective rally in the dollar to wash
away the Johnny Come Lately bears.
• 3) Safe haven and yields. That make sense. But, how much of this is pure Fed Juice
speculation? We have seen gold act just as a risk asset (similar to stocks) before,
only to plunge on a big stock sell off. Gold a nice reservoir for needed margin call
money.

4. XAU/USD Recaptures 200-dma As Us Dollar Drops
With Yields
• Gold fluctuates around monthly top as bulls battle the key hurdle to north.
• DXY seesaws amid reflation concerns, covid woes and Powell’s testimony.
• World Bank conveys fears over Asia-Pacific jabbing, accepts China’s
fundamental strength.
• Fed's Chair speech 2.0, virus updates and second-tier US data will be the key.

5. Gold Price Is Looking To Extend
• Gold price is looking to extend Wednesday’s rally towards the 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at
$1838, having found a strong foothold above the critical 200-DMA at $1826.
• However, a daily closing above the latter is critical to unleashing additional upside for gold price.
• Fundamentally, the relentless drop in the US Treasury yields fuel led renewed weakness in the
dollar, offering a fresh impetus to gold bulls.
• The US rates remains heavily sold-off into the dovish remarks from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell
during his Congressional testimony.
• Powell said that the economy is 'a ways off' from bond taper. Earlier in the Asian session, gold price
fell to a daily low of $1824 after the greenback attempted a bounce amid concerns over slowing
Chinese growth and rapid spread of the Delta covid variant on both sides of the Atlantic.
• Gold traders now await the US economic data and Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking
Committee later on Thursday for fresh trading momentum.

6. Gold (XAU/USD)
• Gold (XAU/USD) bulls take a breather around $1,826 as European traders
brace for Thursday’s bell.
• In doing so, the yellow metal clings to the key 200-DMA resistance after rising
the most in six weeks to refresh the monthly high.
• Gold buyers cheered the US dollar weakness the previous day after Federal
Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell rejected the need for monetary
policy adjustments.
• The policymaker also said that the Fed would give “lots of notice” before
tapering and/or rate hikes.

7. US Dollar Index (DXY)
• However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) probed bears afterward as the strong US
Producer Price Index (PPI), preceded by the upbeat Consumer Price Index (CPI),
pushed traders to turn blind-eyed over Powell’s remarks.
• Also putting the safe-haven bid under the greenback were the coronavirus (COVID-
19) concerns as the variants of the virus take on the developed economies and the
jabbing is still slow in Asia-Pacific.
• This pushes the World Bank Group President David Mal pass to say, per Reuters,
“vaccine shortages mean many countries in East Asia and Pacific may not fully
vaccinate population until 2024 even as new variants emerge.”
• The policymaker also trimmed East Asia-Pacific GDP growth to 4.0% versus 4.4%
expected in March.

8. US Dollar Index (DXY) - I
• It’s worth noting that the UK registered the highest infections since January and Tokyo also
marked the biggest jump in daily cases since May.
• Further, Indonesia, unfortunately, leads Asia on virus outbreak tally whereas, Australia has
already stretched covid-led local lockdowns.
• Amid the COVID-19 fears and expectations that the Fed stays on the way to tapering, S&P
500 Futures remain pressured and so does the US 10-year Treasury yield. However,
the US Dollar Index retreats as traders await more clues for fresh direction.
• Hence, Powell’s second-round of testimony and covid updates, not to forget weekly
US Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index figures, will be the key for
gold buyers as any further recovery of the US dollar may probe the latest uptick of the
metal prices.

9. Technical Analysis
• Gold prices remain directed towards the two-month-old horizontal resistance,
surrounding $1,845, as MACD adds to the bullish bias and the commodity
trades successfully above 100-DMA.
• It should, however, be noted that the fresh buying may wait for a clear break
of $1,826, comprising 200-DMA.
• Alternatively, the $1,800 threshold may offer immediate support during the
quote’s pullback moves ahead of the 100-DMA level of $1,791.
• Though, a daily closing below $1,791 won’t hesitate to attack an ascending
support line from March-end, near $1,764.

10. Gold Daily Chart

11. Gold Technical Overview
• The Technical Confluences Detector is showing that gold has strong support at
$1,814, which is the convergence of the Bollinger Band 4h-Middle, the Fibonacci
38.2% one-month, the Fibonacci 61.8% and more. As the graphic below shows, it is
the strongest line, and is below the current price, thus providing support.
• An additional noteworthy cushion awaits at $1,811, which is the meeting point of the
Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the five-day Simple Moving Average.
• Looking up, immediate resistance is at $1,827, which is a cluster of many lines,
albeit medium-tier ones such as the BB 15min-Middle, the BB 1h-Middle, and more.
• The upside target for XAU/USD is at $1,837, which is the confluence of the 50-day
SMA and the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 2.

12. Gold Technical Overview - I

13. Gold Fundamental Overview
• Is inflation temporary or not? That is the question bedeviling gold traders –
and also the Federal Reserve.
• XAU/USD received a boost after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the
recent rise in prices as related to the reopening and pushed back against
reducing its bond-buying scheme.
• Without tapering, the bank creates $120 billion/month, and some of that
money supports the precious metal.
• However, after surging in response to Powell's words, gold retreated from the
highs. Now technicals may have their say.

14. Gold Fundamental Overview - I

15. Gold: Three Main Ways To Get Exposure To
XAU/USD – Morgan Stanley
• After years of trading in a narrow range around $1,200 an ounce, gold has been
trading above $1,700 for the past year.
• While the yellow metal is not a strategic asset class, there are tactical reasons to
consider adding it now. The Morgan Stanley analyst team lays out three ways to go
about it.
• Physical gold
• “Investors may pay a premium over the spot price of gold. The gold is physically
held by a third party, not Morgan Stanley. Storage fees usually apply.
• Investors can also take delivery of physical gold if they want to store it themselves.
In such cases, delivery fees would apply.”

16. Gold Funds That Own The Metal
• Some mutual funds and exchange-traded funds also offer investors exposure
to gold. For those that are pure-play, their value tracks the price of gold.
• The fund shoulders the cost of holding physical supply and passes it along to
the investors in the expense ratio.
• There are some drawbacks: Some gold funds are taxed as collectibles, so
they don’t benefit from the lower long-term capital-gains rates for which stocks
may qualify.
• Plus, they don’t produce any income, so the expense ratio can eat into
principal every year.”

17. What Is Next For XAU/USD?
• The Technical Confluences Detector is showing that gold has strong support at
$1,814, which is the convergence of the Bollinger Band 4h-Middle, the Fibonacci
38.2% one-month, the Fibonacci 61.8% and more. As the graphic below shows, it is
the strongest line, and is below the current price, thus providing support.
• An additional noteworthy cushion awaits at $1,811, which is the meeting point of the
Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the five-day Simple Moving Average.
• Looking up, immediate resistance is at $1,827, which is a cluster of many lines,
albeit medium-tier ones such as the BB 15min-Middle, the BB 1h-Middle, and more.
• The upside target for XAU/USD is at $1,837, which is the confluence of the 50-day
SMA and the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 2.

18. XAU/USD Resistance And Support Levels

19. Gold News & Analysis
• Gold has retreated after benefiting from the Fed's dovish message.
• The Confluence Detector is showing strong support.
• Gold achieves forecasted levels.
• Is inflation temporary or not? That is the question bedeviling gold traders – and also the Federal Reserve.
• XAU/USD received a boost after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the recent rise in prices as related to
the reopening and pushed back against reducing its bond-buying scheme.
• Without tapering, the bank creates $120 billion/month, and some of that money supports the precious metal.
• However, after surging in response to Powell's words, gold retreated from the highs. Now technicals may
have their say.
• Source:
• Gold Forecast, News and Analysis - FXStreet

20. Gold Is A Reservoir For Needed
Margin Call Money

21. THANKS FOR LISTENING
Gold Is A Reservoir For Needed Margin Call Money