This document provides an outlook for Brazil in 2015. It summarizes that fiscal slippage was significant in 2014 but is being corrected through adjustments to spending and revenues. It also notes that while the current account deficit has widened, foreign direct investment remains strong. Overall, it expresses optimism that Brazil has not wasted its commodities bonus and has the means to make necessary adjustments to foster new growth, with improved fiscal indicators and increases in productivity.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
"Economic and Financial Sector Overview" is a study produced by Banco Central.
I always end up checking those information reports to make my studies and decisions. It's so important that I decided to put in a visible and easy access platform.
Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?IndiaNotes.com
FY16 Union Budget would be presented in the backdrop of easing inflation and interest rates but continued growth challenges which the government needs to address.
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...Christiana Wu
Vietnam’s budget deficit is growing amidst dwindling crude oil revenue and ballooning public debt. Will the proceeds from the divestments of multi-billion dollar state-owned companies and highly controversial across-the-board tax hikes proposal be enough to balance the state’s finances? Will the mega sales of Government’s stakes in Vinamilk, Sabeco, Habeco, Petrolimex, Vietnam Airlines, and other corporations be in time to provide desperately needed capital? | For more reports like this? Follow SPEEDA on Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/showcase/3687396/ or visit https://goo.gl/VfHswA
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
"Economic and Financial Sector Overview" is a study produced by Banco Central.
I always end up checking those information reports to make my studies and decisions. It's so important that I decided to put in a visible and easy access platform.
Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?IndiaNotes.com
FY16 Union Budget would be presented in the backdrop of easing inflation and interest rates but continued growth challenges which the government needs to address.
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...Christiana Wu
Vietnam’s budget deficit is growing amidst dwindling crude oil revenue and ballooning public debt. Will the proceeds from the divestments of multi-billion dollar state-owned companies and highly controversial across-the-board tax hikes proposal be enough to balance the state’s finances? Will the mega sales of Government’s stakes in Vinamilk, Sabeco, Habeco, Petrolimex, Vietnam Airlines, and other corporations be in time to provide desperately needed capital? | For more reports like this? Follow SPEEDA on Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/showcase/3687396/ or visit https://goo.gl/VfHswA
The proposed budget for FY2019-20 does not adequately address the commitments made in the election manifesto of the current government. CPD presented an analysis of the proposed budget keeping in view the targets set in the Seventh Five Year Plan (7FYP), election pledges, current macroeconomic scenario and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Appreciating some of the tax measures, CPD welcomed initiatives like raising VAT exemption threshold which will protect small and medium traders, tax measures for selected import items, VAT exemption on non-mechanical carriage for disabled persons (wheel chair) and hearing aids and VAT exemption on pacemaker, heart valve, Haemodialyser (Artificial Kidney), cancer medicines, etc., among others.
The budget has proposed the existing provisions about undisclosed money to continue. CPD strongly feels that investing undisclosed money in various sectors will not change the investment scenario much nor it will change the behaviour of the tax evaders rather it will continue to discourage regular taxpayers. Personal income tax measures and increase in net wealth exemption limit proposed in the budget, suggest that the budget is likely to benefit the higher-income group while the situation remains unchanged for the lower and middle-income group.
These views, among others, were shared at the CPD media briefing on analysis of the proposed National Budget FY2019-20 on Friday, 14 June 2019 at La Vita Hall, Lakeshore Hotel, Dhaka. Following the presentation of the proposed budget by the Hon’ble Finance Minister at the National Parliament on the day before, the analysis was prepared overnight by the CPD team. Following the welcome remarks from Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Executive Director (a.i.), CPD, Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow, CPD, made the presentation titled, “National Budget for FY2019-20: An Analytical Perspective”. Ms Anisatul Fatema Yousuf, Director, Dialogue and Communication and CPD’s Senior Research Fellow, Mr Towfiqul Islam Khan, among others, were present at the event. Like every year, the media briefing was broadcasted live by Channel i to reach the mass people.
Read More: https://bit.ly/2RhpSb0
The #government of #Bangladesh has proposed the National #Budget for #FY2021 on 11 June 2020. CPD has analysed the budget proposal overnight and presented through a virtual media briefing on 12 June 2020 under its flagship programme 'Independent Review of Bangladesh’s Development (IRBD)'.
See here how CPD analysed the budget proposal in view of tackling #COVID19 #pandemic.
Relationship between growth, financial development and income inequality.
- Is there nonlinearity in the relationship?
- What are the factors that affect the degree of impact of financial development on income inequality?
The government of Bangladesh has placed the budget for FY2020-21. In this backdrop, CPD has organised the Budget Dialogue 2020 to share views on various aspects of the proposed budget. This budget analysis has been prepared to assess the coherence of fiscal measures, assumptions and credibility of macroeconomic forecast, soundness of fiscal framework and priorities of budgetary allocations.
Recent budgeting developments - Ken Takeda, JapanOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Ken Takeda, Japan, at the 12th Annual Meeting of OECD-Asian Senior Budget Officials held in Bangkok, Thailand, on 15-16 December 2016
Alberto Carrasquilla - Setting the field for a faster growing economy: Colomb...ProColombia
Setting the field for a faster growing economy: Colombia's way forward to foster entrepreneurship and increase productivity.
Alberto Carrasquilla - Minister of Finance, Colombia
A moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area, which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand.
Leslie Preston, an economist with TD Canada Trust, delivered an informative presentation at the Economic Briefing Breakfast held at lookout Point Country Club on October 20 2015. Members of the Welland/Pelham and Port Colborne-Wainfleet Chambers of Commerce as well as clients of TD and Durward Jones Barkwell took in the economic forecast for Canada and Niagara while enjoying a hearty breakfast served up by Lookout Point.
The proposed budget for FY2019-20 does not adequately address the commitments made in the election manifesto of the current government. CPD presented an analysis of the proposed budget keeping in view the targets set in the Seventh Five Year Plan (7FYP), election pledges, current macroeconomic scenario and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Appreciating some of the tax measures, CPD welcomed initiatives like raising VAT exemption threshold which will protect small and medium traders, tax measures for selected import items, VAT exemption on non-mechanical carriage for disabled persons (wheel chair) and hearing aids and VAT exemption on pacemaker, heart valve, Haemodialyser (Artificial Kidney), cancer medicines, etc., among others.
The budget has proposed the existing provisions about undisclosed money to continue. CPD strongly feels that investing undisclosed money in various sectors will not change the investment scenario much nor it will change the behaviour of the tax evaders rather it will continue to discourage regular taxpayers. Personal income tax measures and increase in net wealth exemption limit proposed in the budget, suggest that the budget is likely to benefit the higher-income group while the situation remains unchanged for the lower and middle-income group.
These views, among others, were shared at the CPD media briefing on analysis of the proposed National Budget FY2019-20 on Friday, 14 June 2019 at La Vita Hall, Lakeshore Hotel, Dhaka. Following the presentation of the proposed budget by the Hon’ble Finance Minister at the National Parliament on the day before, the analysis was prepared overnight by the CPD team. Following the welcome remarks from Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Executive Director (a.i.), CPD, Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow, CPD, made the presentation titled, “National Budget for FY2019-20: An Analytical Perspective”. Ms Anisatul Fatema Yousuf, Director, Dialogue and Communication and CPD’s Senior Research Fellow, Mr Towfiqul Islam Khan, among others, were present at the event. Like every year, the media briefing was broadcasted live by Channel i to reach the mass people.
Read More: https://bit.ly/2RhpSb0
The #government of #Bangladesh has proposed the National #Budget for #FY2021 on 11 June 2020. CPD has analysed the budget proposal overnight and presented through a virtual media briefing on 12 June 2020 under its flagship programme 'Independent Review of Bangladesh’s Development (IRBD)'.
See here how CPD analysed the budget proposal in view of tackling #COVID19 #pandemic.
Relationship between growth, financial development and income inequality.
- Is there nonlinearity in the relationship?
- What are the factors that affect the degree of impact of financial development on income inequality?
The government of Bangladesh has placed the budget for FY2020-21. In this backdrop, CPD has organised the Budget Dialogue 2020 to share views on various aspects of the proposed budget. This budget analysis has been prepared to assess the coherence of fiscal measures, assumptions and credibility of macroeconomic forecast, soundness of fiscal framework and priorities of budgetary allocations.
Recent budgeting developments - Ken Takeda, JapanOECD Governance
This presentation was made by Ken Takeda, Japan, at the 12th Annual Meeting of OECD-Asian Senior Budget Officials held in Bangkok, Thailand, on 15-16 December 2016
Alberto Carrasquilla - Setting the field for a faster growing economy: Colomb...ProColombia
Setting the field for a faster growing economy: Colombia's way forward to foster entrepreneurship and increase productivity.
Alberto Carrasquilla - Minister of Finance, Colombia
A moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area, which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand.
Leslie Preston, an economist with TD Canada Trust, delivered an informative presentation at the Economic Briefing Breakfast held at lookout Point Country Club on October 20 2015. Members of the Welland/Pelham and Port Colborne-Wainfleet Chambers of Commerce as well as clients of TD and Durward Jones Barkwell took in the economic forecast for Canada and Niagara while enjoying a hearty breakfast served up by Lookout Point.
My quarterly economics update on Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and Uruguay. Please note that I publish more detailed presentations on Colombia, Venezuela and Brazil.
• Owing to growth concerns, Global Central Banks are reducing interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) too is expected to follow suits and may deliver 25-50 bps rate cut
• Central Banks are expected to continue with the loose monetary policy
• Food inflation is beginning to see some moderation although CPI Inflation continues to remain above
RBI‟s comfort zone. RBI‟s operation twist and LTRO too bodes well for the bond markets
• In light of the above factors, we have added duration across our portfolios as we have become positive
on the duration segment in the near term
• We continue to believe that the best strategy would be to create portfolio maturity in the range of 2-5
years
• We also continue to remain positive on the accrual space, as the divergence between Gsec/AAA & AA/A
yields persist.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary of India Budget Synthesis 2014.
While you may already have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2014 on You, Your Company and Your Sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking clearer business decisions and align your company's strategy with the overall economic climate in the balance part of financial year 2014-15.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Dear Friends,
It gives us a pleasure to present the summary of India Budget Synthesis 2014.
While you may already have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2014 on You, Your Company and Your Sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking clearer business decisions and align your company's strategy with the overall economic climate in the balance part of financial year 2014-15.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same."
Regards,
Vishal Thakkar | Group Head - Corporate Relations | Synthesis Group
Hand Phone: 91 9320007891 | Boardline: 91 22 24093737 | Fax: 91 22 24093737
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
3. BRAZIL 2015 – LEARNING BY DOING
Hitachi Feb 2014
Nissan Apr 2014
Knauf June 2014 Itaipava Brewers Apr 2014
Brotas 2014
Basf 2014
Nissan Apr 2014
Saint Gobain May 2014
And dozens of others…
4. BRAZIL 2015 – LEARNING BY DOING
Petrobras – Investment Spending (R$ Billion)
Brazil Monthly Average Oil and Gas Production
5. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
The fiscal slippage was significant in 2014 – and it is being corrected!
Non Financial Public Sector Primary and Nominal Balance*
5
Source: Central Bank / Projections from 2015 to 2017:Budgetary Guidelines Law Revised Draft 2015 for “Budget”, and Focus Report as of (01/30/2015) for “Market”.
* The projections assume Real GDP growth equal 0.8% in 2015, 2.0% in 2016, 2.3% in 2017.
3.3
3.7 3.8
3.2 3.3 3.4
2.0
2.7
3.1
2.4
1.9
-0.6
-5.2
-2.9
-3.6 -3.6
-2.8
-2.0
-3.3
-2.5 -2.6 -2.5
-3.2
-6.7
1.2
2.0 2.0
-4.1
-2.7 -2.5
1.10
2.00 2.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%GDP Primary Nominal Budget Estimates Market
6. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Expansionary Fiscal Policies led to a rise in the Gross Debt / GDP ratio
General Government Gross Debt vs. Net Public Sector Debt (as % of GDP)*
6
Source: Central Bank / Projections from 2015 to 2017: Budgetary Guidelines Law Revised Draft 2015 for “Budget”, and Focus Report as of (01/30/2015) for “Market”.
*The projections assume Real GDP growth equal 0.8% in 2015, 2.0% in 2016, 2.3% in 2017.
17.2%
10.6%
35.3% 33.6%
36.7%
37.4% 37.4%
37.1%
58.8%
56.7%
63.4% 64.1% 63.3% 62.5%
37.0% 36.2% 36.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
2016*
2017*
NPSD
Reserves
Public Financial Institutions
GGGD Budget
Budget
Market
¼ of the public debt (17,2%of GDP is backed
by non-monetized international reserves
7. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e
A Median
Russia
South Africa
BBB Median
Mexico
Brazil
Colombia
India
Turkey
Peru
Expanding Debt/GDP ratios have not been uncommon in recent years
General Government Gross Debt / GDP Ratio – Selected Emerging Markets (Base 100 = 2008)
7Source: Central Bank (Brazil) and IMF (Fiscal Monitor). For Brazil 2014’s debt ratio reflects year-end number.
8. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Additional Treasury Loans to BNDES are not a policy instrument anymore
BNDES funding sources – BRL bn - cumulated
8
Source: National Treasury, BNDES
9. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Tax breaks and tax expenditures contributed to the fiscal slippage
9
Revenue losses doubled in the 2012-2014 period, reaching 2% of GDP
Source: MoF/RFB
Tax/Contribution – BRL bn 2012 2013 2014
Payroll for selected sectors 3.7 12.3 21.6
CIDE-fuel 8.5 11.5 12.7
IPI (industrialized) –all categories 9.7 11.8 10.8
Cesta Básica (Ninimum Consumption Basket) 1.0 6.8 9.3
“Simples” and MEI (Individual Micro-entrepreneur) 5.7 6.3 7.2
IOF – (Consumer’s Credit Lines) 2.3 3.6 4.0
Nafta and Ethanol - 1.9 3.6
Corporate Profit - 1.7 1.8
Public Transportation - 0.7 1.4
Broad band Telecom Networks - 0.6 1.0
Other 15.6 21.4 30.6
Total 46.5 78.6 104.0
10. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
10
4.81%
4.46%
4.31% 4.30%
4.45%
4.37%
4.31%
4.68%
4.42%
4.33%
4.24%
4.18%
4.28%
4.10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Social Transfers rose faster than the Federal Public Sector Payroll
Payroll - % of GDP
Main Social Transfers - % of GDP
Unemployment Benefits rose
from 0,5% of GDP to 1,1% of
GDP
The General Regime Social
Security transfers rose from
6,0% to 7,2%
Other Expenditure - % of GDP
11. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
There are some short terms challenges, but we have NOT wasted the commodities bonus
The message from
2005 is still true,
and despite some
slippages, the
government has the
will and the means to
make the necessary
adjustments to
respond to the new
global environment
and foster a new
cycle of growth, with
improved fiscal
indicators and
increases in labor
productivity
(2004-2005 STN presentations)
12. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Adjustments include significant structural reforms (MP 665)
Nominal Expenditure Growth - % Y-o-Y
12Source: National Treasury, CSFB, Social Security, Min. of Labor
13. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
-24 -23
-8
4
12
14 14
2
-28
-24
-48 -48 -54
-81
-86
-78
-70 -65
33
22 17 10
18 15 19
35
45
26
48
49 65 64 60 59 60 59
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*2016*2017*
Current Account FDI
The Current Account Deficit has widened, but FDI remains strong
[(Current Account Deficit + FDI) * (-1)] - % of GDP Current Account Balance x FDI (US$ bn)
Source: Central Bank - Market Expectations (FOCUS 01/30/15)
Source: Central Bank
»High FX linked debt
» ‘02 FX-Reserves: USD 38 bn
»Low FX linked debt
» FX-Reserves:USD374.015 mi (Jan/15)
13
6.0
3.2 2.8
1.2
0.5
-1.5 -1.5
-4.7
-7.3
Brazilian share on world’s FDI (%)
1.3
1.7
2.5
2.1
3.4
4.0
4.8
4.4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
FDI in USD has doubled in the 2010s
vis-à-vis the 2000s
14. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Infrastructure Program (US$ bn)
14
The participation of the private sector in infrastructure investment is a reality
Source: EPL, EPE, MME., National Treasury / US$ 1 = R$ 2.30
Concessions have been a successful way to expand the infrastructure in the last 20+ years
15. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Growth in installed capacity in GW
15
Electricity Potential Production keeps increasing
Economic Policy
16. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Growth in Consumption GWh
16
Electricity Consumption has grown significantly – especially among households
Economic Policy
GWh var. % GWh var. % GWh var. % GWh var. % GWh var. %
Brasil 415.683 8,2% 433.034 4,2% 448.105 3,5% 463.335 3,4% 473.395 2,2%
Residential 107.215 6,4% 111.971 4,4% 117.646 5,1% 124.896 6,2% 132.049 5,7%
Industrial 179.478 10,9% 183.576 2,3% 183.475 -0,1% 184.609 0,6% 178.055 -3,6%
Services (commerce) 69.17 6,0% 73.482 6,2% 79.226 7,8% 83.695 5,6% 89.819 7,3%
Other 59.82 8,2% 64.006 4,2% 67.758 3,5% 70.136 3,4% 73.472 5,2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013
Brasil 113.97% 109.37% 105.67% 102.20%
Residential 123.17% 117.98% 112.25% 105.70%
Services 129.72% 122.15% 113.31% 107.30%
Residential Industrial Service
2010 25,8% 43,2% 16,6%
2011 25,9% 42,4% 17,0%
2012 26,3% 40,9% 17,7%
2013 27,0% 39,8% 18,1%
2014 27,8% 37,8% 18,9%
Consumption in 2014 compared with previous years Consumption share by segment
17. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Local-currency Project Bonds have shown new ways to finance infrastructure
17
Source: National Treasury, Anbima,Bloomberg
Note: Debentures’ Yield Rates represented by and average at issuance date. NTNB curve reflect secondary market rates as of Feb-10th-2015.
2,024
1,247
200
1,235
681
2,705
311
168 151 64
5.47%
5.55%
7.05%
6.64%
4.28%
7.93%
6.81%7.37%
7.39%
8.38%
6.10%
6.28%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
5Y 7Y 8Y 10Y 11Y 12Y 13Y 14Y 15Y 17Y
Volume - BRL bn Yield % p.y. + CPI NTNB Treasury Curve
Outstanding volume ( BRL mn) and Yield (% p.y.)
18. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Infrastructure Debentures Holders - as of Dec-14
18
Source: National Treasury, Cetip, Anbima, BTG Pactual
Total Outstanding – BRL 15.14 bn
»Non resident investors hold roughly 14% of these debentures compared to 18% of domestic debt
» Retail Investors hold BRL 5.20 bn (34.35%) of the outstanding debentures. They are deposited either in
banks or brokers.
77.38%
17.73%
4.89%
Dec/14
Public Debt Holders
19. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Real Interest Rates have shown a secular decline and Inflation expectations are converging again
Medium and Long Term Real Interest Rate* Expected Inflation (%)
Source: National Treasury
* NTN-B: CPI linked bonds. Until Jan-10, maturing in 2024, 2035 and 2045,
after that maturing in 2030, 2040 and 2050.
Source: Central Bank
* Market Expectations – Central Bank – FOCUS January 30nd 2015
19
6.12%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
20. BRAZIL – 2015 Outlook
Long Term Securities yields continue to be attractive (and above the Selic)
Average Return of Public Bonds–ANBIMA Market Index (IMA) vs Overnight Rate (CDI)
20
» Brazilian Local Government Bond market presents opportunities in both fixed rate and inflation-linked securities.
Source: ANBIMA
Obs.: IRF-M considers all fixed rate bonds outstanding (LTN and NTN-F). IMA-B considers all inflation linked bonds outstanding (NTN-B). IMA-Geral is the most
comprehensive index and is the sum of IRF-M, IMA-S (floating rate index), IMA-C (NTN-C) and IMA-B.
Public Debt Management
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average
2010 -2014
IMA-B IMA-B IMA-B CDI IMA-B IMA-B
17.00% 15.10% 26.70% 8.10% 14.50% 12.66%
IRF-M IRF-M IRF-M IRF-M IRF-M IRF-M
11.90% 14.50% 14.30% 2.60% 11.40% 10.94%
CDI CDI CDI IMA-B CDI CDI
9.70% 11.60% 8.40% -10.00% 10.80% 9.72%
Return
1st
2nd
3rd
21. Fiscal e Monetary
Responsibility
Inflation and Fiscal
Targets;
Respect of contracts
Credit, Tax, and
Judiciary reforms;
Incentives to
innovations and Trade
Effective &
affordable Social
Security safety net
Entrepre-
neurship
Social Security reform
BOLSA-FAMÍLIA
Remembering policy commitments & goals ….
Pillars of Development
THEN(2003)
21
Changes in Federal and State VAT
Expansion of the SIMPLES and “doing
busines” initiatives
Focus on increasing international Trade
Increasing technical
and college-level
training
Foster increase in labor
supply
Focus on the gross
public debt
Accelerate concession/
PPP opportunities
NOW(2015)
Working hard towards…