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http://wwa.colorado.edu
Cherry Hills Land Preserve
Denver, CO – April 17, 2010
Jeff Lukas, Western Water Assessment
CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder
Lukas@colorado.edu
Warmer, drier, earlier
Colorado’s	water	resources	in	a	changing	climate
http://wwa.colorado.edu
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Tree-ring	
record
South Platte at South Platte, CO
Undepleted Annual Flow, 1916-2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Data	source:	Denver	Water
AnnualFlow(1000acre-feet)
Colorado streamflow (water supply) – high variability
http://wwa.colorado.edu
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
TemperatureDeparture,DegreesF
1971⎼2000
average
Colorado annual average temperatures(1900-2018)
1979–2018
Trendline
Source: Updated from Lukas et al., Climate Change in Colorado, 2014; Data(1900-2017): NOAA NCEI; http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/;
(2018) METDATA/gridMET (U. of Idaho) rescaled to match NOAA NCEI average(https://app.climateengine.org/)
Colorado temperatures – significant warming trend
http://wwa.colorado.edu
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
2002
2012
14”
12”
16”
18”
20”
22”
24”
2018
Source: NOAA NCEI; http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
Colorado precipitation – slightly drier overall since 2000,
with three extreme drought years
Colorado	annual	statewide	precipitation	(1895-2018)
http://wwa.colorado.edu
April 1 snowpack: Mostly below-normal since 2000
Colorado Statewide April 1 snowpack (1968-2019)
100%
1968 2019
Source:	NRCS	Colorado	Snow	Survey,	https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/co/snow/
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Colorado’s snowmelt-dominated hydrology – shifting earlier
Source:	Adapted	from	Jeff	Deems,	CIRES/NSIDC
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Tree-ring	
record
South Platte at South Platte, CO
Undepleted Annual Flow, 1916-2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
Data	source:	Denver	Water
AnnualFlow(1000acre-feet)
Colorado streamflow – mostly below normal since 2000,
some effect from warming temperatures
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Drought
Wildfire
Bark Beetle
Infestation
Debris Flow
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Figure	source:	Adapted	from	Lukas	et	al.	2014,	Climate	Change	in	Colorado
Colorado: All climate models tell us to expect more warming
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Temperaturedeparture/change,°F
RCP8.5
RCP4.5
2070
Annual Average
Temperature
Colorado statewide
Projections from 37 CMIP5
GCMs, under 2 emissions
scenariosObservations,
1950-2018
Source: Updated and adapted from Lukas et al. (2014), Climate Change in Colorado
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Colorado’s likely water future (~2050)
Higher ag & outdoor
water demand
Reduced annual
runoff
Earlier snowmelt
and runoff
Water quality
challenges
More frequent
drought
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Comments?	Questions?	Please	contact	me	at	
Lukas@colorado.edu
PDF	available	via	http://wwa.colorado.edu or	http://cwcb.state.co.us/

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Jeff Lukas' Presentation at the Cherry Hills Village Land Preserve Spring Speaker Series Event