By Doctrine Journalists' Military Research Center

1. Conflict Management and Peace
Resolution of the Nagorno-
Karabakh conflict.
Solutions from “Doctrine” JMRC
Jasur Mammadov,
“Doctrine” Journalists’s Military
Research Center, Chairman
April, 9. 2014
Paris

2. “Doctrine” Journalists’ Military
Research Center:
• Was created in 2005, May.
• Registered by Ministry of Justice of Azerbaijan
in 2007, December.
• There are military experts, journalists and
political analysts in cooperation with Doctrine
center.

3. Activities: Strategic analyzing:
• the prognosis about military strategy of
Azerbaijan Republic and other regional
countries;
• the prognosis about regional conflicts;
• the simulated predictions about regional
alarming process;
• Relations of Azerbaijan Republic with different
countries on military and security field.

4. Activities: Database analysis:
• monitoring the number of soldier deaths in
Azerbaijan Defense and Security sector (since
2003);
• military budget analyzing.

5. Activities: Army Reform:
• monitoring the reform in Azerbaijan Army
according to the documents which were signed
with NATO (especially IPAP document);
• analyzing the situation, problems related with the
army building;
• analyzing the military legislations, preparing the
suggestions;
• analyzing the social welfare of soldiers and
officers;
• the suggestions related with struggle against
terrorism.

6. Activities: Defense Industry and
supplies:
• research and analyze the activities of the
companies in Defense Industry;
• analyzing military expenditure for the buying
military techniques and weapons;

7. Activities: Human Rights
protection and civil society:
• human rights protection in army and in
reserve;
• monitoring the media and civil society
activities on military field;
• Training and practical help to journalists and
NGO leaders who want to be active on
military field;
• Consulting services.

8. Activities: Conflict with
Armenia:
• Monitoring the soldier deaths in frontline;
• Analyzing the violation of the ceasefire;
• Analyzing the meetings between presidents,
Ministers of Foreign Affairs of two countries
and Minsk Group activities;
• Interview with different experts, officials
about conflict.

9. The comporative list of soldier deaths in
Defense and Security Sector (2003-2013)

10. The comporative list of the wounded
(injured) soldiers in Defense and Security
Sector (2003-2013)

11. In 2013, combat losses

12. In 2014:

13. Total number of combat deaths
and casualties for (2003-2014)

14. In 2014:
• During this year two Armenian civilians were
captured in Azerbaijan border by Azerbaijani
soldiers. One of them returned back.
• During last 3 months three Azerbaijani
civilians were shot by Armenian side.

15. Violation of ceasefire in 2013
(by Armenian side)
• Total number of ceasefire violations 1.796
This is:
• 21.3 per cent higher than in 2012
• 2.3 times higher than in 2011.
According to the results of APA’s monitoring
based on the materials confirmed by
Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry.

16. In months (2013) (APA report)

17. The areas where ceasefire
violated (2013, APA report)

18. The areas where ceasefire
violated (2013, APA report)

19. OSCE Annual Report for 2013
• Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the challenging
issues that exist today.
• The chairmanship expressed support for the Minsk
Group co-chairs in promoting dialogue between
Azerbaijan and Armenia to settle the conflict.
• the search for a lasting political settlement for the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the most complex
challenges in the OSCE region.
• despite the declaration of a ceasefire in 1994, shooting
incidents in the area are frequent, and violations of the
ceasefire are reported on an almost daily basis.

20. OSCE Annual Report for 2013
• Five civilians and 32 servicemen were
wounded;
• 14 servicemen were killed;
• Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk's team visited
the line of contact 16 times and the border 9
times

21. Conflict solution
Ideas
The role of international mediators:
• OSCE Minsk Group process should prepare
the strict rules for strengthening the control
on violation of ceasefire on frontline.
• International mediators immediately should
invite the conflict sides to implement
different but successive steps which will bring
the peace

22. Conflict solution
Successive steps
• Not to open fire on civilians;
• Adoption the new and logical rules for calculation the
ceasefire violations;
• Appointment the numerous international observers
on frontline to record the ceasefire violations;
• Increase the distance between troops in order to
reduce the possibility the military clashes between
sides and decrease combat deaths (in some places of
frontline distance is 100-150 meters).
• Immediately set emergency contact with Armenian
and Azerbaijan sides during the violation of ceasefire.

23. Conflict solution
Successive steps:
• OSCE Minsk Group should strengthen the
preparation process of intensive meetings of
Ministers of Foreign Affairs;
• Mutual sharing the mine maps;
• Creating special negotiating apparatus in
MFA of both countries is desirable. This
structure must play many-sided role, as be
supportive in planning the meetings,
contacting to each other while occurring the
alarming events.

24. The main goal of this process
should be:
• To stop human deaths (military and civilians)
in the conflict;
• To stop conflict from escalation;
• To gain time to strategic planning related
with the solution the conflict;
• To build confidence between people.

25. Six level of conflict resolution
which should be done…
Step 1. Democratization:
• Azerbaijan and Armenia today possess
undemocratic regimes;
• The level of transparency and accountability is
very low;
• In general all government structures are engaged
to corruption and bribery;
• In many cases the governments abuse the conflict
for their personal goals;
• A lot of political prisoners, violation of the
freedom of expression…

26. Democratization:
Should be done:
• Support to these countries to held democratic
parliament and presidential elections;
• the political elite of these countries should
get really support from people in peace
negotiation process;
• Non-democratically unelected political leaders
are unreliable.

27. Step 2. Stabilization
• Armenia should withdraw its troops from Azerbaijan
territories. The first step should be related with
surrounding regions. Then from Nagorno -Karabakh).
• Azerbaijan should declare the future status of the
Nagorno-Karabakh region. High level autonomy should
be assigned to this region. At the same time the
Armenian residents of this region should get
opportunity to use double citizenship – Azerbaijan and
Armenian;
• International peacekeeping forces (lightly armed)
under the EU mandate can come to this conflict region
and control the situation in this region).

28. Step 3. Demilitarization
• Azerbaijan and Armenian should sign special
agreement about demilitarization of this
region;
• Only police forces should be responsible to
ensure public order;
• Azerbaijan Government should be guarantee
of security the people who live in Nagorno –
Karabakh.

29. Step 4. Reconciliation and
negotiations
• Related organizations as MoD, MFA and other
structures from Armenia and Azerbaijan
should begin the intensive negotiations about
solutions under the support of International
organizations as with OSCE, NATO, UN.
• Internally Displaced Persons should be
returned to this region.

30. Step 5. Subordination,
Assertion and Restoration
• The special structure or person inside the
Ministry of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan should
be responsible to negotiating with Armenian and
Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno Karabakh in
order to support the building their relationship
and development of the region.
• Steady meetings should be held, spending
significant finance to Nagorno – Karabakh region
is very important. Azerbaijan should spend
finance to restore Nagorno-Karabakh region.
• Creating the free economic zone in Nagorno-
Karabakh.

31. Step 6. Continuation
• After the solution problem both countries –
Armenia and Azerbaijan should strengthen
confidence-building process.
• International community should help to these
countries to guarantee the durable peace
process.

32. • Thanks for your attention!
• Any questions?
• cesursumerinli@gmail.com
• doktrina.jham@gmail.com