Gayle Lee
                                 Ramon Simms
                                 Michael Tartre




  In Vitro Meat
 when will chicken nuggets be made of in
vitro meat?
View of the Future

• Efficient meat
                        • Exotic meat
• Individualized meat
                   • Cruelty-free meat
What is IVM
History
•   Dr. Carrel’s
                       •   NASA
    experiment [r&d]
                           relaunches
                           science [govt]




                                                 •   Science fiction
                                                     re-imagines the
                       •   First patents [r&d]       future [social]
History
•   Non-profit research [r&d]




                   •   PETA $1mm X prize [social]




    •   $300k burger coming soon [r&d]
Driving forces
Driving force: Social
• Social causes • Food preferences
  (environment, ethics)
Driving force: R&D
•   IVM cheaper than raised meat?




                       •   IVM healthier than raised meat?




•   IVM more exotic than raised meat?
Driving force: Government

•   Limited ability to regulate trade

•   Net meat importers more likely to invest in research



•   Food security, resource, and health interests
Scenarios of the Future
Low R&D, Low Acceptance




Scenario: Mad Cow Reprieve
              •   Private funding only
              •   Scientists research in oblivion
              •   The public could care less
              •   Meat and dairy lead the way
              •   Protesters do biz as usual
              •   Minimum tech improvements
              •   Quiet government approval
              •   IVM becomes a footnote
High R&D, High
                            Acceptance



Scenario: Food as Fashion
               •   Huge tech advancements
               •   Better than conventional
                   meat: healthier, tastier,
                   superfood
               •   Exotic meats
               •   Celebrities and chefs love it
               •   Consumers love it and are
                   willing to pay more for certified
                   100% IVM
               •   IVM celebrated
Low R&D, High
                           Acceptance



Scenario: The Other Other Meat
               •   Little R&D control
               •   High social acceptance
               •   Competes with substitutes
               •   Preferred to livestock for:
                   o cost
                   o health, or
                   o social reasons
High R&D, Low
                             Acceptance



Scenario: I Can't Believe It's not Meat
                 •   Mass production plants built
                 •   Meat prices stabilize a bit
                 •   Vegetarians get on board
                 •   Fast food jumps in first
                 •   People notice, but not moved
                 •   No diff in taste and texture
                 •   Farms feel the squeeze a little
                 •   IVM becomes an alternative
Scenario Progression
Scenario Progression
Wildcards
•   Outbreak /      •   Indian       •   Improved
    Bio-terrorism       Acceptance       Substitute
Implications
•   Mostly affects developed countries

•   Big agro exporters lose GDP

•   Agro importers likely to innovate more quickly

•   More controlled enviro impact (less water / land
    scarcity)

•   Increased food availability / lower prices
Prospective Timeline
 Tech   Social   Economic/Regulatory
Prospective Timeline
  Tech   Social   Economic/Regulatory
Prospective Timeline
  Tech   Social   Economic/Regulatory
Questions

Ivm pres

  • 1.
    Gayle Lee Ramon Simms Michael Tartre In Vitro Meat when will chicken nuggets be made of in vitro meat?
  • 2.
    View of theFuture • Efficient meat • Exotic meat • Individualized meat • Cruelty-free meat
  • 3.
  • 4.
    History • Dr. Carrel’s • NASA experiment [r&d] relaunches science [govt] • Science fiction re-imagines the • First patents [r&d] future [social]
  • 5.
    History • Non-profit research [r&d] • PETA $1mm X prize [social] • $300k burger coming soon [r&d]
  • 6.
  • 7.
    Driving force: Social •Social causes • Food preferences (environment, ethics)
  • 8.
    Driving force: R&D • IVM cheaper than raised meat? • IVM healthier than raised meat? • IVM more exotic than raised meat?
  • 9.
    Driving force: Government • Limited ability to regulate trade • Net meat importers more likely to invest in research • Food security, resource, and health interests
  • 10.
  • 11.
    Low R&D, LowAcceptance Scenario: Mad Cow Reprieve • Private funding only • Scientists research in oblivion • The public could care less • Meat and dairy lead the way • Protesters do biz as usual • Minimum tech improvements • Quiet government approval • IVM becomes a footnote
  • 12.
    High R&D, High Acceptance Scenario: Food as Fashion • Huge tech advancements • Better than conventional meat: healthier, tastier, superfood • Exotic meats • Celebrities and chefs love it • Consumers love it and are willing to pay more for certified 100% IVM • IVM celebrated
  • 13.
    Low R&D, High Acceptance Scenario: The Other Other Meat • Little R&D control • High social acceptance • Competes with substitutes • Preferred to livestock for: o cost o health, or o social reasons
  • 14.
    High R&D, Low Acceptance Scenario: I Can't Believe It's not Meat • Mass production plants built • Meat prices stabilize a bit • Vegetarians get on board • Fast food jumps in first • People notice, but not moved • No diff in taste and texture • Farms feel the squeeze a little • IVM becomes an alternative
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
    Wildcards • Outbreak / • Indian • Improved Bio-terrorism Acceptance Substitute
  • 18.
    Implications • Mostly affects developed countries • Big agro exporters lose GDP • Agro importers likely to innovate more quickly • More controlled enviro impact (less water / land scarcity) • Increased food availability / lower prices
  • 19.
    Prospective Timeline Tech Social Economic/Regulatory
  • 20.
    Prospective Timeline Tech Social Economic/Regulatory
  • 21.
    Prospective Timeline Tech Social Economic/Regulatory
  • 22.