This presentation discusses the changes over time to house prices in Ireland, both in the last twenty years and over the longer term. Ronan introduces the idea of “adaptive expectations” and the role this plays in the housing market i.e. that people look at what happened in the recent past and assume it will continue into the future. In terms of how we might value housing he discusses the ratio of rents to house prices.
This talk was part of 'The Irish Economy. What happened? What next?', a series of talks held at Dublin City Libraries during March 2012.
https://soundcloud.com/dublincitypubliclibrary/sets/the-irish-economy-what
Ronan Lyons, EU Conference Galway March 2012 - Ireland's property market, pas...Ronan Lyons
Presentation outlining the past, present and future of Ireland's property market, including an analysis of the Irish real estate bubble and how far prices must fall from the peak.
This document summarizes a presentation by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, on the housing market and economic outlook. It includes charts and data on existing home sales, mortgage rates, housing starts, home prices, jobs, unemployment and other economic indicators. The presentation analyzes improving and worsening factors for the housing market and concludes that while the economic recovery is continuing, growth is slower than desired.
This document provides a summary and analysis of the US economy and housing market by Jed Smith of the National Association of Realtors. It discusses how the economy gradually recovered from the Great Recession in a slower and weaker manner than past recessions. While home prices seem to be stabilizing and affordability is high, challenges remain around availability of credit, high unemployment, and consumer confidence. The outlook forecasts continued recovery, but notes many risks and uncertainties depend on government policies around jobs, spending, taxes, and housing programs.
- Inflation is expected to rise to 4-6% by 2015, above the Fed's target rate of 2%, due to rising rents and homeowner costs. However, inflation will likely not reach double digits as in the 1970s.
- Home prices are forecast to increase by 15% cumulatively over the next three years as demand increases and supply remains tight.
- The federal budget deficit will contribute to higher borrowing costs and potentially higher inflation if not addressed.
Trends in extreme events of rainfall in low country wet zone of Sri LankaHiran Amarasekera
HERATH H.M.L.K.
SIHILELLA J.P.W.P.
ABEYSINGHE D.C.
DHANUSHIKA M.P.
Wayamba University of Sri Lanka
--
International Forestry and Environment Symposium 2011 Annual Symposium organized by Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Nugegoda, Sri Lanka http://fesympo.sjp.ac.lk/
Gregory Connor's presentation focuses on a number of key themes – what the effect was of Ireland joining the Euro, and how things may have worked out differently if our banking regulatory system had been stricter. Following with a look at how we might ‘cure our hangover’ Gregory addressed the housing situation, mortgage arrears and how Ireland might get out of debt.
This talk was part of 'The Irish Economy. What happened? What next?', a lecture series held in Dublin City Libraries during March 2012.
https://soundcloud.com/dublincitypubliclibrary/sets/the-irish-economy-what
A presentation by Dr Roisín Higgins, Boston College Ireland on the rich history of Dublin's sporting grounds, pitches and clubs and the stories they tell about the social, economic and political life of Dublin city and its people. The talk was part of the Sport and the City Seminar held in Dublin City Library and Archive on 11th September, 2010.
http://dublinsportsarchive.wordpress.com/
Ronan Lyons, EU Conference Galway March 2012 - Ireland's property market, pas...Ronan Lyons
Presentation outlining the past, present and future of Ireland's property market, including an analysis of the Irish real estate bubble and how far prices must fall from the peak.
This document summarizes a presentation by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, on the housing market and economic outlook. It includes charts and data on existing home sales, mortgage rates, housing starts, home prices, jobs, unemployment and other economic indicators. The presentation analyzes improving and worsening factors for the housing market and concludes that while the economic recovery is continuing, growth is slower than desired.
This document provides a summary and analysis of the US economy and housing market by Jed Smith of the National Association of Realtors. It discusses how the economy gradually recovered from the Great Recession in a slower and weaker manner than past recessions. While home prices seem to be stabilizing and affordability is high, challenges remain around availability of credit, high unemployment, and consumer confidence. The outlook forecasts continued recovery, but notes many risks and uncertainties depend on government policies around jobs, spending, taxes, and housing programs.
- Inflation is expected to rise to 4-6% by 2015, above the Fed's target rate of 2%, due to rising rents and homeowner costs. However, inflation will likely not reach double digits as in the 1970s.
- Home prices are forecast to increase by 15% cumulatively over the next three years as demand increases and supply remains tight.
- The federal budget deficit will contribute to higher borrowing costs and potentially higher inflation if not addressed.
Trends in extreme events of rainfall in low country wet zone of Sri LankaHiran Amarasekera
HERATH H.M.L.K.
SIHILELLA J.P.W.P.
ABEYSINGHE D.C.
DHANUSHIKA M.P.
Wayamba University of Sri Lanka
--
International Forestry and Environment Symposium 2011 Annual Symposium organized by Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Nugegoda, Sri Lanka http://fesympo.sjp.ac.lk/
Gregory Connor's presentation focuses on a number of key themes – what the effect was of Ireland joining the Euro, and how things may have worked out differently if our banking regulatory system had been stricter. Following with a look at how we might ‘cure our hangover’ Gregory addressed the housing situation, mortgage arrears and how Ireland might get out of debt.
This talk was part of 'The Irish Economy. What happened? What next?', a lecture series held in Dublin City Libraries during March 2012.
https://soundcloud.com/dublincitypubliclibrary/sets/the-irish-economy-what
A presentation by Dr Roisín Higgins, Boston College Ireland on the rich history of Dublin's sporting grounds, pitches and clubs and the stories they tell about the social, economic and political life of Dublin city and its people. The talk was part of the Sport and the City Seminar held in Dublin City Library and Archive on 11th September, 2010.
http://dublinsportsarchive.wordpress.com/
Lenovo Learning - Certificate - Servicing the Lenovo Hyperscale SD350xEmmanuelselepe
This certificate was presented to Emmanuel Selepe for successfully completing servicing of the Lenovo Hyperscale SD350x server with serial number ES71621. The certificate was awarded to Emmanuel Selepe on Tuesday, June 07, 2016 in recognition of his completion of this task.
The 16th Annual Sir John T. Gilbert Commemorative Lecture, given by Maighréad Ní Mhurchadha, local historian, on Wednesday 23rd January 2013, in the Dublin City Library & Archive, Pearse Street, Dublin 2. www.dublincitylibraries.ie
El documento describe los factores que causan la drogadicción y sus consecuencias. Los factores incluyen influencias sociales como amigos que usan drogas, factores familiares como padres que usan sustancias o maltrato, y factores individuales como depresión o baja autoestima. Las consecuencias son efectos físicos y psicológicos como alucinaciones o agotamiento, y consecuencias sociales como delincuencia, separación familiar o terminar en prisión.
Danish Ship Finance shipping market review October 2012TradeWindsnews
The global shipping markets are struggling with overcapacity as the world fleet has expanded more than world trade volumes in recent years. Global economic growth has slowed, particularly in Europe, dampening demand for seaborne transportation. While industrial production is shifting closer to consumers, shortening some shipping distances, the large inflow of new vessels in most segments continues to weigh on freight rates and asset values. The outlook remains challenging with weak fundamentals and ongoing fleet growth expected to keep the markets oversupplied in the near future.
El acta define los cambios en los turnos de Elizabeth y Haydee para mejorar el funcionamiento de la empresa. También establece que cada turno mantendrá una base de efectivo en caja y el resto se depositará en la cuenta bancaria, y que los gastos personales requerirán aprobación. Además, asigna $100.000 semanales para los gastos de los fines de semana de Graciela, rotando entre Elizabeth y Haydee para llevarla a almorzar.
Annual Emmet & Devlin Lecture 2010 delivered by Dr Máire Kennedy at Dublin City Library and Archive on 15 March 2010.
https://soundcloud.com/dublincitypubliclibrary/rediscovering-emmets-dublin-through-the-collections-of-dublin-city-libraries
Communication Publique Et Territoriale et Réseaux SociauxMediaventilo
Les collectivités territoriales favorisent et organisent un certain nombre de pratiques collectives de la vie quotidienne, et ont par conséquent une place légitime à occuper sur ces réseaux en ligne.
Voici quelques bonnes pratiques pour la communication sur ces espaces.
1. The document presents "School4You", a digital platform created for education that focuses on curiosity and passion for knowledge in a stimulating environment.
2. It discusses trends like urbanization, globalization, and digitalization that are shaping the current exponential timeline and challenges of keeping students engaged.
3. The goal is to motivate students by applying insights from brain research, gamification, and experiential learning to create an interactive platform that triggers inner motivation through autonomy, mastery and purpose rather than just external rewards.
Dublin City Archives contains records of the civic government of Dublin from 1171 to the late 20th century. These records include City Council and committee minutes, account books, correspondence, reports, court records, charity petitions, title deeds, maps and plans and drawings all of which document the development of Dublin over eight centuries.
www.dublincitylibraries.ie
This document presents an idea for an online startup that would compare prices and product authenticity across various e-commerce and social networking sites. The proposed startup aims to not only show customers the cheapest options, but also identify potentially fake or inauthentic products and suggest better alternatives at similar price points. This startup concept aims to create jobs and support the Indian government's Make in India initiative by helping consumers identify genuine products online.
1) School4YOU is a digital platform created for education that aims to foster curiosity, passion for learning, and engagement in a stimulating environment.
2) It focuses on three key trends: urbanization, globalization, and digitalization to create an unlimited classroom that is not constrained by physical space.
3) The platform incorporates insights from brain research, gamification, and experiential learning to motivate students and help information stick better through activation rather than just presenting it.
This document provides instructions for enabling the EPEL (Extra Packages for Enterprise Linux) repository on RHEL (Red Hat Enterprise Linux) systems to gain access to additional packages. It describes downloading the EPEL rpm package, installing it to enable the repository, and checking that it is functioning properly by viewing available packages and installing a library from EPEL.
El documento discute los desafíos de seguridad de la información con la inclusión de datos no estructurados de la tercera plataforma tecnológica en bases de datos en la nube. Aborda temas como la consolidación de bases de datos, la recopilación de datos sensibles, y la necesidad de seguridad a profundidad incluyendo la disociación de datos y el cumplimiento de normas. También analiza la transformación hacia un mundo hiperconectado y el cambio en la visión de seguridad de en sitio a la nube.
[Mémoire] Réseaux sociaux & collectivité territoriale, Stratégie de Communica...Ville de Besançon
Mémoire de stage en Licence Professionnelle ATC Communication publique
Stage effectué à la Mairie de Besançon
En savoir plus sur la LPCP : http://lpcpnews.wordpress.com/
Nicolas MIOT
www.nicolas-miot.com
Ce mémoire est l’occasion d’aborder un sujet d’actualité dans le cadre du développement de la communication dans les collectivités territoriales : le digital. Outils de communication dans l’air du temps, les réseaux sociaux sont aujourd’hui au cœur des discussions pour les structures publiques. Comment aborder ces nouveaux outils tout en prenant en compte leurs codes particuliers ? Quelles sont les attentes des internautes sur les réseaux sociaux ? Quelles relations entre les collectivités territoriales et les utilisateurs peuvent s’instaurer avec les réseaux sociaux ?
C’est autour de ces différentes questions, et notamment celle de la mise en place d’une stratégie de communication digitale, que nous nous pencherons ici sur l’usage du numérique dans les collectivités territoriales. Puis, à travers l’exemple de la Ville de Besançon, il sera possible de mettre en lumière l’application concrète et opérationnelle d’une stratégie de communication digitale. Cette mise en lumière sera l’occasion de réfléchir ensemble sur la fonction et la place d’un métier émergent dans la communication publique : celui de l’animateur de communautés numériques.
Venturefest Bristol 2011 Professor Nigel jump, University of BathScience City Bristol
The document summarizes an economic presentation given in November 2011 on prospects for the UK economy and South West region from 2012 onwards. It highlights issues like low growth outlook due to global credit issues, UK's need to eliminate fiscal deficit and rebalance economy, and questions whether the South West is prepared for new economic era. Charts show UK's recovery from 2008 recession has been slower than prior ones and that productivity and net trade are concerns, posing risk to future growth and expectations.
Housing Market Outlook and Affordable Housing in the Twin Cities Metrosotatodd
The document summarizes the Twin Cities housing market outlook and recent affordable housing production. It found that since the 2007 housing collapse, the region has seen a slow recovery in homebuilding and shifting locations toward urban cores. The metro is projected to gain over 800,000 new residents by 2040, with most new households consisting of single adults and seniors. Assessing future affordable housing needs will require balancing policy goals with market realities to ensure adequate affordable options near jobs and transit.
This document summarizes returns of the FTSE All-Share index from 1963 to 2008. It makes the following key points:
1) The average annual return over this period was 11.6%, but actual yearly returns varied widely, from gains over 40% to losses over 35%.
2) Returns are more stable over 10-year periods compared to single years, clustering around the long-term average. No 10-year period showed an overall loss.
3) Periods with below average returns were often followed by periods with strong gains, demonstrating the importance of long-term perspective in investing.
Graphite is a natural form of carbon that occurs in metamorphic rocks. It is an excellent conductor of heat and electricity. While China produces 80% of the world's natural graphite, demand is growing due to applications in lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells, and other technologies. This creates supply risks as China also controls much of the exports. Turkey has many graphite occurrences, mainly of the amorphous type, but also contains deposits that are more crystalline and pure. Production in Turkey was over 18,000 tonnes in 1990 but has declined since, though demand remains high. Low-cost graphite projects and further development in Turkey may help address future supply needs.
The document provides an outline and objectives for a report on prospects and challenges of sustainable palm oil for China. The outline includes sections on China's sustainable development vision, the global and China palm oil situation, sustainable palm oil production and consumption, business case for sustainable palm oil, initiatives in China, policy recommendations, and next steps. The objectives are to provide strategic policy guidance to China on sustainable palm oil, facilitate sustainable trade policy adoption, and provide a business case for Chinese commerce.
Lenovo Learning - Certificate - Servicing the Lenovo Hyperscale SD350xEmmanuelselepe
This certificate was presented to Emmanuel Selepe for successfully completing servicing of the Lenovo Hyperscale SD350x server with serial number ES71621. The certificate was awarded to Emmanuel Selepe on Tuesday, June 07, 2016 in recognition of his completion of this task.
The 16th Annual Sir John T. Gilbert Commemorative Lecture, given by Maighréad Ní Mhurchadha, local historian, on Wednesday 23rd January 2013, in the Dublin City Library & Archive, Pearse Street, Dublin 2. www.dublincitylibraries.ie
El documento describe los factores que causan la drogadicción y sus consecuencias. Los factores incluyen influencias sociales como amigos que usan drogas, factores familiares como padres que usan sustancias o maltrato, y factores individuales como depresión o baja autoestima. Las consecuencias son efectos físicos y psicológicos como alucinaciones o agotamiento, y consecuencias sociales como delincuencia, separación familiar o terminar en prisión.
Danish Ship Finance shipping market review October 2012TradeWindsnews
The global shipping markets are struggling with overcapacity as the world fleet has expanded more than world trade volumes in recent years. Global economic growth has slowed, particularly in Europe, dampening demand for seaborne transportation. While industrial production is shifting closer to consumers, shortening some shipping distances, the large inflow of new vessels in most segments continues to weigh on freight rates and asset values. The outlook remains challenging with weak fundamentals and ongoing fleet growth expected to keep the markets oversupplied in the near future.
El acta define los cambios en los turnos de Elizabeth y Haydee para mejorar el funcionamiento de la empresa. También establece que cada turno mantendrá una base de efectivo en caja y el resto se depositará en la cuenta bancaria, y que los gastos personales requerirán aprobación. Además, asigna $100.000 semanales para los gastos de los fines de semana de Graciela, rotando entre Elizabeth y Haydee para llevarla a almorzar.
Annual Emmet & Devlin Lecture 2010 delivered by Dr Máire Kennedy at Dublin City Library and Archive on 15 March 2010.
https://soundcloud.com/dublincitypubliclibrary/rediscovering-emmets-dublin-through-the-collections-of-dublin-city-libraries
Communication Publique Et Territoriale et Réseaux SociauxMediaventilo
Les collectivités territoriales favorisent et organisent un certain nombre de pratiques collectives de la vie quotidienne, et ont par conséquent une place légitime à occuper sur ces réseaux en ligne.
Voici quelques bonnes pratiques pour la communication sur ces espaces.
1. The document presents "School4You", a digital platform created for education that focuses on curiosity and passion for knowledge in a stimulating environment.
2. It discusses trends like urbanization, globalization, and digitalization that are shaping the current exponential timeline and challenges of keeping students engaged.
3. The goal is to motivate students by applying insights from brain research, gamification, and experiential learning to create an interactive platform that triggers inner motivation through autonomy, mastery and purpose rather than just external rewards.
Dublin City Archives contains records of the civic government of Dublin from 1171 to the late 20th century. These records include City Council and committee minutes, account books, correspondence, reports, court records, charity petitions, title deeds, maps and plans and drawings all of which document the development of Dublin over eight centuries.
www.dublincitylibraries.ie
This document presents an idea for an online startup that would compare prices and product authenticity across various e-commerce and social networking sites. The proposed startup aims to not only show customers the cheapest options, but also identify potentially fake or inauthentic products and suggest better alternatives at similar price points. This startup concept aims to create jobs and support the Indian government's Make in India initiative by helping consumers identify genuine products online.
1) School4YOU is a digital platform created for education that aims to foster curiosity, passion for learning, and engagement in a stimulating environment.
2) It focuses on three key trends: urbanization, globalization, and digitalization to create an unlimited classroom that is not constrained by physical space.
3) The platform incorporates insights from brain research, gamification, and experiential learning to motivate students and help information stick better through activation rather than just presenting it.
This document provides instructions for enabling the EPEL (Extra Packages for Enterprise Linux) repository on RHEL (Red Hat Enterprise Linux) systems to gain access to additional packages. It describes downloading the EPEL rpm package, installing it to enable the repository, and checking that it is functioning properly by viewing available packages and installing a library from EPEL.
El documento discute los desafíos de seguridad de la información con la inclusión de datos no estructurados de la tercera plataforma tecnológica en bases de datos en la nube. Aborda temas como la consolidación de bases de datos, la recopilación de datos sensibles, y la necesidad de seguridad a profundidad incluyendo la disociación de datos y el cumplimiento de normas. También analiza la transformación hacia un mundo hiperconectado y el cambio en la visión de seguridad de en sitio a la nube.
[Mémoire] Réseaux sociaux & collectivité territoriale, Stratégie de Communica...Ville de Besançon
Mémoire de stage en Licence Professionnelle ATC Communication publique
Stage effectué à la Mairie de Besançon
En savoir plus sur la LPCP : http://lpcpnews.wordpress.com/
Nicolas MIOT
www.nicolas-miot.com
Ce mémoire est l’occasion d’aborder un sujet d’actualité dans le cadre du développement de la communication dans les collectivités territoriales : le digital. Outils de communication dans l’air du temps, les réseaux sociaux sont aujourd’hui au cœur des discussions pour les structures publiques. Comment aborder ces nouveaux outils tout en prenant en compte leurs codes particuliers ? Quelles sont les attentes des internautes sur les réseaux sociaux ? Quelles relations entre les collectivités territoriales et les utilisateurs peuvent s’instaurer avec les réseaux sociaux ?
C’est autour de ces différentes questions, et notamment celle de la mise en place d’une stratégie de communication digitale, que nous nous pencherons ici sur l’usage du numérique dans les collectivités territoriales. Puis, à travers l’exemple de la Ville de Besançon, il sera possible de mettre en lumière l’application concrète et opérationnelle d’une stratégie de communication digitale. Cette mise en lumière sera l’occasion de réfléchir ensemble sur la fonction et la place d’un métier émergent dans la communication publique : celui de l’animateur de communautés numériques.
Venturefest Bristol 2011 Professor Nigel jump, University of BathScience City Bristol
The document summarizes an economic presentation given in November 2011 on prospects for the UK economy and South West region from 2012 onwards. It highlights issues like low growth outlook due to global credit issues, UK's need to eliminate fiscal deficit and rebalance economy, and questions whether the South West is prepared for new economic era. Charts show UK's recovery from 2008 recession has been slower than prior ones and that productivity and net trade are concerns, posing risk to future growth and expectations.
Housing Market Outlook and Affordable Housing in the Twin Cities Metrosotatodd
The document summarizes the Twin Cities housing market outlook and recent affordable housing production. It found that since the 2007 housing collapse, the region has seen a slow recovery in homebuilding and shifting locations toward urban cores. The metro is projected to gain over 800,000 new residents by 2040, with most new households consisting of single adults and seniors. Assessing future affordable housing needs will require balancing policy goals with market realities to ensure adequate affordable options near jobs and transit.
This document summarizes returns of the FTSE All-Share index from 1963 to 2008. It makes the following key points:
1) The average annual return over this period was 11.6%, but actual yearly returns varied widely, from gains over 40% to losses over 35%.
2) Returns are more stable over 10-year periods compared to single years, clustering around the long-term average. No 10-year period showed an overall loss.
3) Periods with below average returns were often followed by periods with strong gains, demonstrating the importance of long-term perspective in investing.
Graphite is a natural form of carbon that occurs in metamorphic rocks. It is an excellent conductor of heat and electricity. While China produces 80% of the world's natural graphite, demand is growing due to applications in lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells, and other technologies. This creates supply risks as China also controls much of the exports. Turkey has many graphite occurrences, mainly of the amorphous type, but also contains deposits that are more crystalline and pure. Production in Turkey was over 18,000 tonnes in 1990 but has declined since, though demand remains high. Low-cost graphite projects and further development in Turkey may help address future supply needs.
The document provides an outline and objectives for a report on prospects and challenges of sustainable palm oil for China. The outline includes sections on China's sustainable development vision, the global and China palm oil situation, sustainable palm oil production and consumption, business case for sustainable palm oil, initiatives in China, policy recommendations, and next steps. The objectives are to provide strategic policy guidance to China on sustainable palm oil, facilitate sustainable trade policy adoption, and provide a business case for Chinese commerce.
This document discusses indicators for sustainable development of water resources in Bulgaria's Black Sea Water Management District (BSWMD). It analyzes driving forces like climate (increasing temperatures and variable precipitation), population, and economic activity on pressures like water abstraction and losses. The resulting state of water resources and impacts like water stress are examined. Management responses like policies on ecological river flows, pricing, and integrated water management are also covered. Key statistics on the BSWMD are provided along with analyses of climate data and water usage by sector.
This document discusses indicators for sustainable development of water resources in the Black Sea water management district of Bulgaria. It presents conceptual frameworks and models for analyzing driving forces like climate, population, and economic activity that put pressure on water resources and impact their state over time. Specific data is provided on temperature and precipitation trends, population and economic indicators, water usage by sector, and water losses for the district from 2000 to 2008. The document aims to identify pressures and their impacts to inform water management policies and responses.
This document discusses indicators for sustainable development of water resources in Bulgaria's Black Sea Water Management District (BSWMD). It analyzes driving forces like climate (increasing temperatures and variable precipitation), population, and economic activity on pressures like water abstraction and losses. The resulting state of water resources and impacts like water stress are evaluated. Management responses like policies on ecological river flows, pricing, and integrated water management are also covered. Key statistics on the BSWMD are provided to understand the context. Trends in climate variables over time are plotted, and extreme wet and dry years that affected water levels are outlined. The main water consuming sectors in the district are also listed.
This document discusses indicators for sustainable development of water resources in Bulgaria's Black Sea Water Management District (BSWMD). It outlines key driving forces like climate (increasing temperatures and variable precipitation), population, and economic activity that put pressure on water resources in the region. The state of water resources is analyzed based on factors like water abstraction, losses, and supply regimes. Responses discussed include water management policies around ecological minimums, consumption management, pricing, and integrated water management. Impacts on water stress are also considered.
Similar to Ireland's Property Market - How did it come to this? And where to next? by Ronan lyons (10)
This document summarizes the history of Nelson's Pillar in Dublin, Ireland from its construction in 1809 until its destruction in 1966. It provides details on the pillar's construction, its role over the centuries, and reactions to its demolition. The summary concludes by outlining subsequent efforts and proposals to commemorate the site through new monuments and public art installations.
This is a history of the Dublin City Lord Mayor’s Ceremonial Chair, which was originally commissioned by Dublin City Council in 1852 for the new Council Chamber in City Hall.
The document provides information about the Eblana Theatre located in Dublin, Ireland. It summarizes that the Eblana Theatre was located in the vaults of Busaras bus station, which was designed by architect Michael Scott. The vaults were originally used as a small cinema but were converted into the Eblana Theatre in 1959. The theatre was run by Phyllis Ryan's production company Gemini Productions and was known for being innovative but ultimately closed down in 1995.
This 18th century manuscript is the meticulous record by an early Dublin meteorologist, who documented the weather in the city on a daily basis during the period 1716 to 1734. The manuscript is part of the Gilbert Collection and is held in the Special Collections of Dublin City Libraries. Until recently it was not known who the author of the work was, but thanks to the research of historian Alan Smyth the diarist has now been identified as Isaac Butler (c1690 – 1755).
https://dcpla.ie/weather-and-winds
This presentation discusses Anglo Irish Bank’s early days and its move into the property and developer niche. It covers the ‘relationship banking’ model where Anglo worked with developers during the day and entertained them at night. The story developed as we moved into the boom years caused by access to cheap funding through being in the Euro and the rise in house prices.
Following the crash and the infamous night of the bank guarantee Simon outlines what the bank bailouts are costing the State, and also details some of the dubious practices since uncovered that the bank was using to try and cover up its problems.
This talk was part of 'The Irish Economy. What happened? What next?', a series of talks held at Dublin City Libraries during March 2012.
https://soundcloud.com/dublincitypubliclibrary/sets/the-irish-economy-what
This presentation outlines some sources relating to the period 1913 - 1916, including events such as the Dublin Lock-Out, The Great War and the 1916 Rising, available at Dublin City Archives.
Dr Mary Clark, City Archivist
www.dublincityarchives.ie
On Monday, 23rd January 2012 the fifteenth annual Sir John T. Gilbert Commemorative Lecture was held at Dublin City Library and Archive, Pearse Street. Councillor Dermot Lacey, deputising for The Lord Mayor of Dublin, Councillor Andrew Montague, was chairman for the evening. City Librarian, Margaret Hayes, welcomed the capacity audience and introduced the Lord Mayor.
The fifteenth Gilbert lecture was delivered by Brendan Twomey. Brendan Twomey has published many books on history of Dublin including Dublin in 1707: A year in the life of the city (2009) and Smithfield and the Parish of St Paul, Dublin 1698-1750.
Paul O'Mahony gave a thought provoking talk outlining the arguments made in his book The Irish War on Drugs. A criminologist and a Senior Lecturer in Psychology in Trinity College Dublin he has written extensively on the issues of drugs, crime, treatment, prison and rehabilitation.
Johnny Connolly is a criminologist in the Alcohol and Drugs Research Unit of the Health Research Board. He has researched and written on community policing, drugs and crime and alternatives to imprisonment. He is a Board member of the Irish Penal Reform Trust.
Johnny gave a talk outlining current research and policy on the broad areas of crime and drugs. He explained where the statistics in use come from, what they explain and what they may conceal. He also went through recent trends in drug consumption (rise in the Celtic tiger years, subsequent fall and the ‘headshop’ phenomena) and the official response to this. The presentation was followed by questions and answers.
This presentation was part of Dublin City Libraries Crime and the City series.
https://soundcloud.com/dublincitypubliclibrary/sets/crime-and-the-city
On the night of 31 May 1941, four high-explosive bombs were dropped by German aircraft on the North Strand area of Dublin City. The casualties were many: 28 dead and 90 injured, with 300 houses damaged or destroyed. Charleville Mall Public Library was designated as the headquarters for the bombed area and City Architect Horace O’Rourke was in charge of the clearance project.
The photographs which make up this exhibition were commissioned by Dublin Corporation as evidence for the assessment of insurance claims. The work was entrusted to a local photographer, H. McCrae, of 152 Clontarf Road, who began work on 4 June and the final photographs were taken on 31 October, at a total cost of £79-10s-0d.
https://northstrandbombing.ie/
This document contains images and text documenting the history of Bohemian Football Club, an Irish football club founded in 1890 in Dublin. It includes photos of early Bohemian teams from the 1890s and 1900s, including the team that won the Irish Challenge Cup in 1907-1908. It also mentions Harold Sloan, who scored the first goal at Dalymount Park and later died in World War 1, in memory of his military service. The document provides a visual timeline of Bohemian Football Club's history over several decades in the late 19th and early 20th century.
The effect of war-time censorship on historical sources regarding the North Strand Bombing in 1941. A talk by Kevin O'Connor at the North Strand Bombing and the Emergency in Ireland seminar held at Dublin City Library & Archive on Saturday, 29th May 2010.
https://northstrandbombing.ie/
The Other German Bombings of Ireland: German bombings of Ireland 1940-41. A talk by Eoin Bairéad at the North Strand Bombing and the Emergency in Ireland seminar held at Dublin City Library & Archive on Saturday, 29th May 2010.
https://northstrandbombing.ie/
On Thursday 21 January 2010 the thirteenth annual Sir John T. Gilbert Commemorative Lecture was held at Dublin City Library and Archive, Pearse Street. The Lord Mayor of Dublin, Councillor Emer Costello, was chairman for the evening. City Librarian, Deirdre Ellis-King, welcomed the capacity audience and introduced the Lord Mayor.
The thirteenth lecture was given by Brendan Grimes, Dublin School of Architecture, D.I.T. Bolton Street. Brendan Grimes lecture, Commodious temples: Catholic church building in nineteenth-century Dublin, brought the audience on a fascinating tour of Dublin churches such as Saint Nicholas of Myra's, Saint Audeon's and Saint Francis Xavier's.
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2. Today is based around
four “stylised facts”
Real estate is a bad investment
The property market is imperfect
Accommodation is a service
Governments can manage the property market
3. Context: We’ve seen it all before…
Price of Mountjoy
Square townhouse after
construction in 1791:
£8,000
Price of Mountjoy
Square townhouse in
1849:
£500
Fall: 94%
4. Outline
Real estate is a bad investment
The property market is imperfect
Accommodation is a service
Governments can manage the property market
5. But surely…
“Buy land – they’re not
making it anymore!”
Mark Twain
7. On the face of it, house prices do seem to
rise at least some of the time
Herengracht house prices, 1628-1962
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1782
1796
1880
1670
1740
1642
1684
1754
1824
1852
1698
1768
1922
1866
1936
1726
1810
1950
1838
1894
1628
1712
1908
1964
1656
1628 = 100 – Source: Piet Eichholtz
10. Property stores value – but little more
Relative to the cost of living, prices in Central
Amsterdam were no higher in 1975 than in 1875 or 1640
“Stylised fact” (1): over time, house price increases on
average match inflation – but don’t beat it
This can be investigated worldwide
The literature on long-run house prices around the
world is small but pretty clear on this point – e.g. New
York commercial real estate or Boston house prices
In contrast, even savings accounts typically beat
inflation
11. But surely Ireland is different?
Average house prices in Ireland, 1975-2007
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
€0
2001Q1
2003Q1
2005Q1
1975Q1
1981Q1
1985Q1
1987Q1
1989Q1
1993Q1
2007Q1
2009Q1
2011Q1
1977Q1
1979Q1
1997Q1
1983Q1
1991Q1
1995Q1
1999Q1
12. Again, we need to correct for inflation
(and add in the post-2007 period!)
Inflation-adjusted house prices, 1975-2011
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
€0
2001Q1
2003Q1
2005Q1
1975Q1
1981Q1
1985Q1
1987Q1
1989Q1
1993Q1
2007Q1
2009Q1
2011Q1
1977Q1
1979Q1
1997Q1
1983Q1
1991Q1
1995Q1
1999Q1
13. The period to 1996 looks familiar!
Inflation-adjusted house prices, 1975-1996
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
€0
2001Q1
2003Q1
2005Q1
1975Q1
1981Q1
1985Q1
1987Q1
1989Q1
1993Q1
2007Q1
2009Q1
2011Q1
1977Q1
1979Q1
1997Q1
1983Q1
1991Q1
1995Q1
1999Q1
14. Our expectations about the future
should reflect this
We should only expect house prices to increase
the same rate as inflation
This has big implications for those who bought during
the bubble (or those who bailed out bubble-era
lending)
They can’t expect inflation to eat away their problem –
they will have to wait until the principal is paid off to sell
their property
15. It may be the 2050s before prices
reach levels seen at the peak
Potential for house prices in Ireland, 1975-2060
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
€0
1985
2040
2005
2015
2035
2045
2055
1975
2025
1980
2000
2010
2030
2050
2060
1990
2020
1995
16. Outline
Real estate is a bad investment
The property market is imperfect
Accommodation is a service
Governments can manage the property market
17. Economics likes assumptions
Assumptions are needed to come up with any sort of
model of the world
Assumptions typically either…
1. Strip away unnecessary detail
2. Simplify a process we don’t understand yet
The danger is when economists mistake a type (2)
assumption for a type (1) assumption
Most models in economics generate predictions about
the equilibrium…
… but say very little about markets not in equilibrium
18. “Rational expectations” is a much
contested assumption
“Rational expectations” means that consumers know
all information and can process it
An alternative is “adaptive expectations”
i.e. people do not process every last bit of information –
instead they look at the past and extrapolate into the
future
This has very different implications for policy
Property markets exhibit strong tendencies of
“adaptive expectations”
We can see this in Ireland over the last ten years
19. Adaptive expectations lend
themselves to bubble-crash cycles
Ireland’s crash has been so vicious because it has
ticked all the boxes of the archetypal bubble:
An initial favourable change in conditions (moving from
1980s stagnation to 1990s export-led growth)
Fresh sources of credit to turn the boom into bubble
(entering the Eurozone gave Irish banks access to
German savings to lend)
Fresh sources of supply (of houses) to suck everyone
into the bubble (tax breaks for construction)
20. Despite this, people did not see the
end of the bubble
Source: Analysis of ESRI-IIB Consumer Sentiment Surveys
21. People also find it hard to see the end
of the crash
The typical respondent to a survey on the property
market in January 2012 expected house prices to fall a
further 10% this year
Just one in six sees house prices being higher in 2017
than they are now
This is only slightly above the number who believe house
prices will fall by a further 35% or more during the same
period
22. Outline
Real estate is a bad investment
The property market is imperfect
Accommodation is a service
Governments can manage the property market
23. Economics is not:
“what goes up must come down”
Average house prices in Ireland 1975-2015
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
€0
1985Q1
2001Q1
2003Q1
2005Q1
1975Q1
1981Q1
1987Q1
1989Q1
1993Q1
2007Q1
2009Q1
2011Q1
2013Q1
2015Q1
1977Q1
1979Q1
1997Q1
1983Q1
1991Q1
1995Q1
1999Q1
24. Economics is about:
supply and demand
Supply is largely fixed
Both generally: in housing markets (compared to other
markets) supply moves slowly
And specifically: in Ireland at the moment, very little
construction activity happening
To understand where house prices will “land”, we need
to understand demand
This is often thought of “in short-hand” as the ratio
between incomes and house prices
25. House prices relative to incomes
Between 1988 and 1995, the average house price was
3.6 times household income
Household income in 1990 was 1.15 times average income
(compared to 1.33 in 2005)
The ratio in 2005-2007 was over twice this (an average
of 7.4)
26. What if house prices had reflected
household income?
Inflation-adjusted house prices in Ireland
€400,000
Actual
€350,000
Income ratio
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
€0
2004Q4
2006Q3
1978Q3
1992Q3
2003Q1
2010Q1
1982Q1
1989Q1
1996Q1
1980Q2
1983Q4
2001Q2
2008Q2
2011Q4
1976Q4
1985Q3
1987Q2
1994Q2
1997Q4
1999Q3
1975Q1
1990Q4
27. But the income ratio is a symptom –
not the cause
Some of the increase 18%
16%
above the dashed line
14%
may not be due to a
12%
bubble 10%
It may be because 8%
Ireland went from a high 6%
Interest rates
interest rate 4%
Pre-1995 average
environment to a low 2% Post-1995 average
one 0%
2007Q1
1983Q1
2003Q1
1975Q1
1987Q1
2011Q1
1979Q1
1991Q1
1995Q1
1999Q1
28. The ultimate value of real estate
comes from the service it offers
Income multiples also tell us very little about why
house prices vary spatially
Rents matter – even if you are not a renter or a
landlord
One of the most important services in a developed
economy’s GDP is “imputed rent”
What would an owner-occupier pay in the rental market
to enjoy their accommodation?
The ratio of rents to house prices is the fundamental
measure of health in a property market
29. Rents and house prices reflect a huge
range of “non-market” services
Figures show the estimated effect of moving a property from 1km away
from a particular amenity to 100 metres away
30. The ratio of rents to house prices is
like the “return” on housing
Think like an investor: a property that rents for €800 a
month has an annual rental value of €10,000
Knowing that this property has an annual “dividend”
of €10,000, what would you buy this property for?
If you had lots of cash, you would compare the return to,
say, interest rates on savings accounts
If you were borrowing, you would compare the return to
the cost of borrowing
31. The rent-to-price ratio is closely
related to interest rates
20%
18%
Perhaps the real damage
16% was done when yields were
14% pulled down by low ECB
rates post-2001
12%
10%
Yield
8%
6% Interest rate
Rising house prices in 1996
4% may have been justified by
lower interest rates
2%
0%
1984Q1
2004Q1
1978Q1
1998Q1
2002Q1
1980Q1
2000Q1
2006Q1
2008Q1
2010Q1
1982Q1
1986Q1
1988Q1
1990Q1
1994Q1
1992Q1
1996Q1
32. What if house prices had reflected
rental yields?
House prices in Ireland 1975-2011
€400,000
Actual
€350,000
Income ratio
€300,000 Yields
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
€0
2004Q4
2006Q3
1978Q3
1992Q3
2003Q1
2010Q1
1982Q1
1989Q1
1996Q1
1980Q2
1983Q4
2001Q2
2008Q2
2011Q4
1976Q4
1985Q3
1987Q2
1994Q2
1997Q4
1999Q3
1975Q1
1990Q4
33. Crystal-ball gazing
Asking prices fell by an average of 52% between 2007
and the end of 2011
If asking prices have fallen a further 5% since then and
accepted bids are typically 10% below the asking price,
then prices are down 58%
The average transaction price now is in the region of
€155,000
This is in line with both income multiples and rental
multiples…
… but prices won’t actually stabilise until credit returns
34. Outline
Real estate is a bad investment
The property market is imperfect
Accommodation is a service
Governments can manage the property market
35. Government can put in place good
market foundations
Caution: Intervention was part of the problem
As of 2006, the Irish property market the most
intervened in among developed economies
In addition to tax breaks for construction and mortgage
interest relief, also no annual property tax or capital
gains tax!
New intervention has to be aware of the stylised facts
of property markets
36. Three principles will go a long way
Sensible land use
E.g. site value tax, which encourages socially beneficial
use of land and penalises land banks, derelict sites
Sensible lending
E.g. “covered bonds”: to lend over 30 years, banks must
borrow over 30 years – effectively creates culture of fixed
rates so Ireland would be less prone to ECB decisions
Sensible borrowing
E.g. improving the “informational infrastructure” –
publicly available house price register
37. Thank you
Comments and questions welcome
For more, see ronanlyons.com or get in touch on
Twitter (@ronanlyons)