Download to read offline
![(MRW) conclude that:
"international differences in income per capita are best
understood
using an [economic] growth model [where] output is produced
from
physical capital, human capital, and labor, and is used for
investment
in physical capital, investment in human capital, and
consumption."
(Mankiw et al. 1992 , p. 432)
Using the Eviews/GRETL dataset attached, carefully explain the
empirical evidence MRW provide in support in of their thesis.
In
the light of this econometric analysis, do you share the authors’
conclusion above?
Answer in about 1500 words (all included).
Additional information
Deadline: Please submit an electronic copy of your essay on
Study Space
Weight: 50% of portfolio assessment, 22.5% of total marks.
References
[MRW] Mankiw, N.G., Romer, D., Weil, D.N., (1992). A
Contribution
to the Empirics of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal
of Economics 107, 407–437. doi:10.2307/2118477
<Available at:
http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/107/2/407.abstract >
I can provide you the reference and all data you need to do the](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-8-2048.jpg)
![essay with .
You can use one of them (E-views or Gretl) it's you choice
you can find all data on Mankiw et al. (1992)'s Appendix
All data Here with the required reading material p.434-436
page434.pdf
A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth
Author(s): N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer and David N.
Weil
Source: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 2
(May, 1992), pp. 407-437
Published by: Oxford University Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118477 .
Accessed: 21/10/2014 08:12
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![(5) k* = [s/(n + g + 5)]1I(1-a)
The steady-state capital-labor ratio is related positively to the
rate
of saving and negatively to the rate of population growth.
The central predictions of the Solow model concern the impact
of saving and population growth on real income. Substituting
(5)
into the production function and taking logs, we find that
steady-
state income per capita is
(6)tl [Ot]ln()gt
(6) In = In A (0) + gt + 1 In(s) - 1 ln(n + g + 8).
Because the model assumes that factors are paid their marginal
products, it predicts not only the signs but also the magnitudes
of
the coefficients on saving and population growth. Specifically,
because capital's share in income (a) is roughly one third, the
model implies an elasticity of income per capita with respect to
the
saving rate of approximately 0.5 and an elasticity with respect
to
n + g + 8 of approximately -0.5.
B. Specification
The natural question to consider is whether the data support
the Solow model's predictions concerning the determinants of
standards of living. In other words, we want to investigate
whether
real income is higher in countries with higher saving rates and
lower in countries with higher values of n + g + 5.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-17-2048.jpg)
![assumption implies that we can estimate equation (7) with ordi-
nary least squares (OLS).1
There are three reasons for making this assumption of indepen-
dence. First, this assumption is made not only in the Solow
model,
but also in many standard models of economic growth. In any
model in which saving and population growth are endogenous
but
preferences are isoelastic, s and n are unaffected by E. In other
words, under isoelastic utility, permanent differences in the
level of
technology do not affect saving rates or population growth
rates.
Second, much recent theoretical work on growth has been
motivated by informal examinations of the relationships
between
saving, population growth, and income. Many economists have
asserted that the Solow model cannot account for the
international
differences in income, and this alleged failure of the Solow
model
has stimulated work on endogenous-growth theory. For
example,
Romer [1987, 1989a] suggests that saving has too large an
influence on growth and takes this to be evidence for positive
externalities from capital accumulation. Similarly, Lucas [1988]
asserts that variation in population growth cannot account for
any
substantial variation in real incomes along the lines predicted
by
the Solow model. By maintaining the identifying assumption
that s
and n are independent of E, we are able to determine whether
systematic examination of the data confirms these informal](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-19-2048.jpg)
![Another way to evaluate the Solow model would be to impose
on equation (7) a value of ao derived from data on factor shares
and
then to ask how much of the cross-country variation in income
the
model can account for. That is, using an approach analogous to
"growth accounting," we could compute the fraction of the vari-
ance in living standards that is explained by the mechanism
identified by the Solow model.2 In practice, because we do not
have
exact estimates of factor shares, we do not emphasize this
growth-
accounting approach. Rather, we estimate equation (7) by OLS
and
examine the plausibility of the implied factor shares. The fit of
this
regression shows the result of a growth-accounting exercise per-
formed with the estimated value of a. If the estimated a differs
from the value obtained a priori from factor shares, we can
compare the fit of the estimated regression with the fit obtained
by
imposing the a priori value.
C. Data and Samples
The data are from the Real National Accounts recently
constructed by Summers and Heston [1988]. The data set
includes
real income, government and private consumption, investment,
and population for almost all of the world other than the
centrally
planned economies. The data are annual and cover the period
1960-1985. We measure n as the average rate of growth of the
working-age population, where working age is defined as 15 to
64.3](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-21-2048.jpg)
![We estimate equation (7) both with and without imposing the
constraint that the coefficients on ln(s) and ln(n + g + 8) are
equal
in magnitude and opposite in sign. We assume that g + 8 is
0.05;
reasonable changes in this assumption have little effect on the
estimates.6 Table I reports the results.
4. For purposes of comparability, we restrict the sample to
countries that have
not only the data used in this section, but also the data on
human capital described
in Section II.
5. The countries that are excluded on this basis are Bahrain,
Gabon, Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In
addition, Lesotho is
excluded because the sum of private and government
consumption far exceeds GDP
in every year of the sample, indicating that labor income from
abroad constitutes an
extremely large fraction of GNP.
6. We chose this value of g + 8 to match the available data. In
U. S. data the
capital consumption allowance is about 10 percent of GNP, and
the capital-output
ratio is about three, which implies that 8 is about 0.03; Romer
[1989a, p. 60]
presents a calculation for a broader sample of countries and
concludes that 8 is
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2014 08:12:36 AM
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![theory of growth in general-it implies that theories based on
easily observable variables may be able to account for most of
the
cross-country variation in real income it is not supportive of the
textbook Solow model in particular.
II. ADDING HUMAN-CAPITAL ACCUMULATION TO THE
SOLOW MODEL
Economists have long stressed the importance of human
capital to the process of growth. One might expect that ignoring
human capital would lead to incorrect conclusions: Kendrick
[1976] estimates that over half of the total U. S. capital stock in
1969 was human capital. In this section we explore the effect of
adding human-capital accumulation to the Solow growth model.
Including human capital can potentially alter either the
theoretical modeling or the empirical analysis of economic
growth.
At the theoretical level, properly accounting for human capital
may
change one's view of the nature of the growth process. Lucas
[1988], for example, assumes that although there are decreasing
returns to physical-capital accumulation when human capital is
held constant, the returns to all reproducible capital (human
plus
physical) are constant. We discuss this possibility in Section
III.
At the empirical level, the existence of human capital can alter
the analysis of cross-country differences; in the regressions in
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2014 08:12:36 AM
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![tion. In other words, one unit of consumption can be
transformed
costlessly into either one unit of physical capital or one unit of
human capital. In addition, we are assuming that human capital
depreciates at the same rate as physical capital. Lucas [1988]
models the production function for human capital as fundamen-
tally different from that for other goods. We believe that, at
least
for an initial examination, it is natural to assume that the two
types of production functions are similar.
We assume that a + ,B < 1, which implies that there are
decreasing returns to all capital. (If a + ,B = 1, then there are
constant returns to scale in the reproducible factors. In this
case,
7. Previous authors have provided evidence of the importance of
human capital
for growth in income. Azariadis and Drazen [1990] find that no
country was able to
grow quickly during the postwar period without a highly literate
labor force. They
interpret this as evidence that there is a threshold externality
associated with
human capital accumulation. Similarly, Rauch [1988] finds that
among countries
that had achieved 95 percent adult literacy in 1960, there was a
strong tendency for
income per capita to converge over the period 1950-1985.
Romer [1989b] finds that
literacy in 1960 helps explain subsequent investment and that, if
one corrects for
measurement error, literacy has no impact on growth beyond its
effect on
investment. There is also older work stressing the role of human
capital in](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-30-2048.jpg)
![development; for example, see Krueger [1968] and Easterlin
[1981].
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THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 417
there is no steady state for this model. We discuss this
possibility in
Section III.) Equations (9a) and (9b) imply that the economy
converges to a steady state defined by
n + g +
(10)
(*
a k -S a 1/(1-a-)
, n +g+ /
Substituting (10) into the production function and taking logs
gives an equation for income per capita similar to equation (6)
above:
(1 1) In [L(t)| In A(O) + gt -
+
(I ln(n + g + a Y (t)]_
+ Iln(Sk) + In(Sh)
This equation shows how income per capita depends on](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-31-2048.jpg)
![empirical failure of the Solow model to explain cross-country
differences. Barro [1989] presents the argument succinctly:
In neoclassical growth models with diminishing returns, such as
Solow (1956), Cass
(1965) and Koopmans (1965), a country's per capita growth rate
tends to be
inversely related to its starting level of income per person.
Therefore, in the absence
of shocks, poor and rich countries would tend to converge in
terms of levels of per
capita income. However, this convergence hypothesis seems to
be inconsistent with
the cross-country evidence, which indicates that per capita
growth rates are
uncorrelated with the starting level of per capita product.
Our first goal in this section is to reexamine this evidence on
convergence to assess whether it contradicts the Solow model.
Our second goal is to generalize our previous results. To
implement the Solow model, we have been assuming that
countries
in 1985 were in their steady states (or, more generally, that the
deviations from steady state were random). Yet this assumption
is
questionable. We therefore examine the predictions of the aug-
mented Solow model for behavior out of the steady state.
A. Theory
The Solow model predicts that countries reach different steady
states. In Section II we argued that much of the cross-country
differences in income per capita can be traced to differing
determi-
nants of the steady state in the Solow growth model:](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-42-2048.jpg)
![accumulation
of human and physical capital and population growth. Thus, the
Solow model does not predict convergence; it predicts only that
income per capita in a given country converges to that country's
steady-state value. In other words, the Solow model predicts
convergence only after controlling for the determinants of the
steady state, a phenomenon that might be called "conditional
convergence."
In addition, the Solow model makes quantitative predictions
about the speed of convergence to steady state. Let y * be the
steady-state level of income per effective worker given by
equation
(11), and let y(t) be the actual value at time t. Approximating
around the steady state, the speed of convergence is given by
d ln(y(t))
(13) dt = X[ln(y*) -ln(y(t))],
where
A = (n + g + a) (1-a -
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THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 423
For example, if a = P = 1/3 and n + g + 8 = 0.06, then the
convergence rate (A) would equal 0.02. This implies that the
economy moves halfway to steady state in about 35 years.
Notice](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-43-2048.jpg)
![nous-growth models predict a coefficient of zero on y(O) in the
regression in (16). As Barro [1989] notes, however,
endogenous-
growth models with more than one sector may imply
convergence if
the initial income of a country is correlated with the degree of
imbalance among sectors.
Before presenting the results on convergence, we should note
the differences between regressions based on equation (16) and
those we presented earlier. The regressions in Tables I and II
are
valid only if countries are in their steady states or if deviations
from steady state are random. Equation (16) has the advantage
of
explicitly taking into account out-of-steady-state dynamics. Yet,
implementing equation (16) introduces a new problem. If
countries
have permanent differences in their production functions-that is,
different A (O)'s-then these A(O)'s would enter as part of the
error
term and would be positively correlated with initial income.
Hence,
variation inA (0) would bias the coefficient on initial income
toward
zero (and would potentially influence the other coefficients as
well).
In other words, permanent cross-country differences in the
produc-
tion function would lead to differences in initial incomes
uncorre-
lated with subsequent growth rates and, therefore, would bias
the
results against finding convergence.
B. Results](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-46-2048.jpg)
![We now test the convergence predictions of the Solow model.
We report regressions of the change in the log of income per
capita
over the period 1960 to 1985 on the log of income per capita in
1960, with and without controlling for investment, growth of
the
working-age population, and school enrollment.
In Table III the log of income per capita appears alone on the
right-hand side. This table reproduces the results of many
previous
authors on the failure of incomes to converge [De Long 1988;
Romer 1987]. The coefficient on the initial level of income per
capita is slightly positive for the non-oil sample and zero for
the
intermediate sample, and for both regressions the adjusted R2 is
exponent on capital in the production function, a, and the
capital-output ratio. In
models in which endogenous growth arises mainly from
externalities from physical
capital, a is close to one, and the derivative of the growth rate
with respect to Sk is
approximately 1 I (KI Y), or about 0.4. In models in which
endogenous growth arises
largely from human capital accumulation and there are no
externalities from
physical capital, the derivative would be about 0.31(KIY), or
about 0.12.
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![the adjusted R2 of the regression is 0.46. This result confirms
the
findings of Dowrick and Nguyen [1989], among others.
Table IV adds our measures of the rates of investment and
population growth to the right-hand side of the regression. In all
three samples the coefficient on the initial level of income is
now
significantly negative; that is, there is strong evidence of
conver-
gence. Moreover, the inclusion of investment and population
growth rates improves substantially the fit of the regression.
Table
V adds our measure of human capital to the right-hand side of
the
regression in Table IV. This new variable further lowers the
coefficient on the initial level of income, and it again improves
the
fit of the regression.
Figure I presents a graphical demonstration of the effect of
adding measures of population growth and accumulation of
human
and physical capital to the usual "convergence picture," first
presented by Romer [1987]. The top panel presents a scatterplot
for our intermediate sample of the average annual growth rate
of
income per capita from 1960 to 1985 against the log of income
per
capita in 1960. Clearly, there is no evidence that countries that
start off poor tend to grow faster. The second panel of the figure
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2014 08:12:36 AM
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![Recently, several economists, including Lucas [1988], Barro
[1989], and King and Rebelo [1989], have emphasized an
objection
to the Solow model in addition to those we have addressed so
far:
they argue that the model fails to explain either rate-of-return
differences or international capital flows. In the models of
Sections
I and II, the steady-state marginal product of capital, net of
depreciation, is
(17) MPK- 8 = u(n+ g + 8Sk
Thus, the marginal product of capital varies positively with the
population growth rate and negatively with the saving rate.
Because the cross-country differences in saving and population
growth rates are large, the differences in rates of return should
also
be large. For example, if at = 1/3, 8 = 0.03, and g = 0.02, then
the
mean of the steady-state net marginal product is 0.12 in the
intermediate sample, and the standard deviation is 0.08.13
Two related facts seem inconsistent with these predictions.
First, observed differentials in real interest rates appear smaller
than the predicted differences in the net marginal product of
capital. Second, as Feldstein and Horioka [1980] first
documented,
countries with high saving rates have high rates of domestic
investment rather than large current account surpluses: capital
does not flow from high-saving countries to low-saving
countries.
Although these two facts indeed present puzzles to be resolved,
it is premature to view them as a basis for rejecting the Solow](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-58-2048.jpg)
![model. The Solow model predicts that the marginal product of
capital will be high in low-saving countries, but it does not
necessarily predict that real interest rates will also be high. One
can infer the marginal product of capital from real interest rates
on
financial assets only if investors are optimizing and capital
markets
are perfect. Both of these assumptions are questionable. It is
13. There is an alternative way of obtaining the marginal
product of capital,
which applies even outside of the steady state but requires an
estimate of I and the
assumption of no country-specific shifts to the production
function. If one assumes
that the returns on human and physical capital are equalized
within each country,
then one can show that the MPK is proportional toy(a+P-
1)/(a+P). Therefore, for the
textbook Solow model in which a = 1/3 and I = 0, the MPK is
inversely proportional
to the square of output. As King and Rebelo [1989] and others
have noted, the
implied differences in rates of return across countries are
incredibly large. Yet if a =
0 = 1/3, then the MPK is inversely proportional to the square
root of output. In this
case, the implied cross-country differences in the MPK are
much smaller and are
similar to those obtained with equation (17).
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![THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 431
possible that some of the most productive investments in poor
countries are in public capital, and that the behavior of the
governments of poor countries is not socially optimal. In
addition,
it is possible that the marginal product of private capital is also
high in poor countries, yet those economic agents who could
make
the productive investments do not do so because they face fi-
nancing constraints or because they fear future expropriation.
Some evidence for this interpretation comes from examining
international variation in the rate of profit. If capital earns its
marginal product, then one can measure the marginal product of
capital as
MPK=Ky
That is, the return to capital equals capital's share in income (a)
divided by the capital-output ratio (K/Y). The available
evidence
indicates that capital's share is roughly constant across counties.
Sachs [1979, Table 3] presents factor shares for the G-7
countries.
His figures show that variation in these shares across countries
and over time is small.'4 By contrast, capital-output ratios vary
substantially across countries: accumulating the investment data
from Summers and Heston [1988] to produce estimates of the
capital stock, one finds that low-saving countries have capital-
output ratios near one and high-saving countries have capital-
output ratios near three. Thus, direct measurement of the profit
rate suggests that there is large international variation in the
return to capital.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-60-2048.jpg)
![The available evidence also indicates that expropriation risk is
one reason that capital does not move to eliminate these
differences
in the profit rate. Williams [1975] examines the experience of
foreign investment in developing countries from 1956 to 1972.
He
reports that, during this period, governments nationalized about
19 percent of foreign capital, and that compensation averaged
about 41 percent of book value. It is hard to say precisely how
much
of the observed differences in profit rates this expropriation risk
can explain. Yet, in view of this risk, it would be surprising if
the
14. In particular, there is no evidence that rapid capital
accumulation raises
capital's share. Sachs [1979] reports that Japan's rapid
accumulation in the 1960s
and 1970s, for example, was associated with a rise in labor's
share from 69 percent
in 1962-1964 to 77 percent in 1975-1978. See also Atkinson
[1975, p. 167].
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432 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
profit rates were not at least somewhat higher in developing
countries.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-61-2048.jpg)
![Further evidence on rates of return comes from the large
literature on international differences in the return to education.
Psacharopoulos [1985] summarizes the results of studies for
over
60 countries that analyze the determinants of labor earnings
using
micro data. Because forgone wages are the primary cost of
educa-
tion, the rate of return is roughly the percentage increase in the
wage resulting from an additional year of schooling. He reports
that the poorer the country, the larger the return to schooling.
Overall, the evidence on the return to capital appears consis-
tent with the Solow model. Indeed, one might argue that it
supports the Solow model against the alternative of endogenous-
growth models. Many endogenous-growth models assume
constant
returns to scale in the reproducible factors of production; they
therefore imply that the rate of return should not vary with the
level of development. Yet direct measurement of profit rates
and
returns to schooling indicates that the rate of return is much
higher in poor countries.
CONCLUSION
We have suggested that international differences in income per
capita are best understood using an augmented Solow growth
model. In this model output is produced from physical capital,
human capital, and labor, and is used for investment in physical
capital, investment in human capital, and consumption. One
production function that is consistent with our empirical results
is
Y= K1/3H1"31/3.
This model of economic growth has several implications. First,](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-62-2048.jpg)
![Modern
Business Cycle Theory, Robert J. Barro, ed. (Cambridge, MA:
Harvard Univer-
sity Press, 1989a), pp. 51-127.
"Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER
Working Paper
3173, November 1989b.
Sachs, Jeffrey D., "Wages, Profit, and Macroeconomic
Adjustment: A Comparative
Study," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1979:2), 269-
332.
Solow, Robert M., "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic
Growth," Quarterly
Journal of Economics, LXX (1956), 65-94.
Summers, Robert, and Alan Heston, "A New Set of International
Comparisons of
Real Product and Price Levels Estimates for 130 Countries,
1950-85," Review
of Income and Wealth, XXXIV (1988),1-26.
Williams, M. L., "The Extent and Significance of
Nationalization of Foreign-owned
Assets in Developing Countries, 1956-1972," Oxford Economic
Papers, XXVII
(1975), 260-73.
This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct
2014 08:12:36 AM
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
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Contentsp. [407]p. 408p. 409p. 410p. 411p. 412p. 413p. 414p.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-73-2048.jpg)
![415p. 416p. 417p. 418p. 419p. 420p. 421p. 422p. 423p. 424p.
425p. 426p. 427p. 428p. 429p. 430p. 431p. 432p. 433p. 434p.
435p. 436p. 437Issue Table of ContentsThe Quarterly Journal of
Economics, Vol. 107, No. 2 (May, 1992), pp. 327-796Front
MatterVoters as Fiscal Conservatives [pp. 327-361]On Diversity
[pp. 363-405]A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic
Growth [pp. 407-437]Job Mobility and the Careers of Young
Men [pp. 439-479]Why is Production More Volatile than Sales?
Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for
Inventory-Holding [pp. 481-510]Asymmetric Tournaments,
Equal Opportunity Laws, and Affirmative Action: Some
Experimental Results [pp. 511-539]Economics of Direct
Legislation [pp. 541-571]Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice:
Evidence and an Interpretation [pp. 573-597]Judging Factor
Abundance [pp. 599-620]Why Do Countries and Industries with
Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles? [pp.
621-656]Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity:
Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits [pp. 657-
680]Coordination in Split Award Auctions [pp. 681-707]How
Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data? [pp. 709-
738]Communication in Coordination Games [pp. 739-
771]Financial Assets, Inflation Hedges, and Capital Utilization
in Developing Countries: An Extension of McKinnon's
Complementarity Hypothesis [pp. 773-784]Optimal Financial
Contracting with Ex Post and Ex Ante Observability Problems
[pp. 785-795]Back Matter [pp. 796-796]
Eviews.wf1
Gretl.gdt
Gretl.gdt
18 Nov 2008 16:55
Data imported from Stata file 'mrw.dta', 2014-10-10 14:48](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/introductionthephysicaltohumancapitalproportioniscompos-221122093159-65eae56d/75/IntroductionThe-physical-to-human-capital-proportion-is-compos-docx-74-2048.jpg)
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- 1. Introduction: The physical tohuman capital proportion is composed in expanding work Solow sort demonstrate as opposed to level of them. It is accepted that the development of yield relies on upon the physical to human capital proportion where human capital is most certainly not just measured by instruction additionally by wellbeing or sustenance status. Accordingly, human capital is characterized in this study with individual instruction level and dietary status. In the event that there is an irregularity impact in the middle of physical and human capital, the awkwardness impact that is a symmetric condition on the physical to human capital proportion will be fundamentally beneath or over its enduring state esteem. The uneven unevenness impact is exhibited by a kilter U-molded reliance or if the every capita yield development depends just as decidedly or just as adversely on the physical to human degree. They generally state prove that development depends absolutely on the physical to human capital degree. Islam (1995) discovers negative human capital coefficients. This negative sign of human capital coefficients is considered by us to be an evidence for the importance of physical to human capital degree in development study. They draw thoughtfulness regarding the complementarities between human capital and physical capital. The complementarities between human capital and physical capital are the regular of the generation technique since gear needs qualified laborers to oversee them and qualified mechanics to settle them. Also, even advanced agrarian creation obliges a generally educated horticulture workforce where specialists who can understand directions on a compost pack, get it data contained in manual conveyed by augmentation specialists and get it the substance of a repair manual for agrarian supplies and up-to-the-moment administrations need individuals who can make basic estimations quickly and exactly. On the off chance that nations concentrate on physical capital while overlooking their human
- 2. capital, they willbefore long get to be cognizant that the comes back to physical capital are more terrible than they need to be then they will have poorer yield. They likewise uncovered that presenting unrivaled strategies for creation, better approaches for doing things and presenting more compound and entangled items are simpler said than done on the off chance that purchasers, laborers and buyers have unacceptable preparing and instruction to empower them to comprehend the new engineering. Data: We have utilized information for 1990 and 2000 for 36 nations where 1980' every capita GDP level information is gotten for beginning starting salary level. The physical cash flow to education*worker exertion level information is computed as electric power utilization (kwh) to Education (E) information times the specialist exertion record (e) (EL/E*e). EL/E*e electric force utilization (kwh) demonstrated as (EL) stands for physical capital intermediary and Education (E) information is the aggregate instructed individuals who took normal Years of School from instructive accomplishment of the matured 15. Every capita dietary vitality supply (DES) is taken from Fao1 to compute the specialist exertion level (e). Downright populace variables are taken from the World Improvement Indicators to figure populace development rates. Gross domestic product every capita and all out populaces and EL/E*e electric force utilization (kwh) are from World Bank's World Development Indicators2. Instruction (E) information originates from the Barro- Lee information set. Change in physical cashflow to instruction information is figured as change in EL/E*e electric force utilization (kwh) to Education (E) information and the laborer exertion record (e) (EL/E*e). Since we plan to utilize physical to human capital degree as the integral communication in our increasing Solow model, we ought to draw the illustrations of the normal every capita salary development and the EL/E*e. The reliance on the every capita salary development on K/H proportion in figure 1 is not
- 3. U molded. One-partendogenous development models expect a U-formed reliance of generation development on the backwards proportion of physical to human capital. Greenwood (1997) says that financial development hypothesis equivocally infers the lopsidedness impact. This awkwardness impact is portrayed as the proportion of physical to human capital or human to physical capital. As we see from the figure 1, aggregate and sub-examples demonstrates no U-formed. In any case, it is tricky to close there is a positive relationship between normal every capita pay development and EL/E*e with the exception of high-pay sub example and entire specimen. The normal of (EL/E*e) is the 650066.1 and the standard deviation parallels 617684.1. The normal of normal every capita wage development is 0.202358 furthermore the standard deviation levels with 0.1988373. We have likewise report for the sub test. For the high pay level nations (as indicated by World Bank 2002 characterization where mid and low pay level nations are accounted for in the same bunch), the normal of normal every capita pay development is 0.204 and the standard deviation rises to 0.124, the normal of (EL/E*e) is the 1081703 and the standard deviation rises to 656372.1. For the low pay level nations, the normal of normal every capita wage development is 0. 20 and the standard deviation levels with 0.25, the normal of (EL/E*e) is the 284834.5 and the standard deviation levels with 226639.3. Both of these measurements are higher in the high- salary nations. The relationship of the normal of (EL/E*e) and normal every capita salary development for the entire specimen is -0.0745 (0.5341). It is -0.2106 (0.2394) for high income level and it is -0.0660 (0.6899) for the low-wage level. Financial development is regularly measured as the change in every capita Gross Domestic Item (GDP). Maintained long haul financial development at a positive rate is a genuinely later wonder in mankind's history, the vast majority of it having happened in the most recent 200 years. As indicated by Maddison's (2001) evaluations, every capita GDP on the planet
- 4. economy was nohigher in the year 1000 than in the year 1, and just 53% higher in 1820 than in 1000, suggesting a normal yearly development rate of stand out nineteenth of one percent over the recent 820 year period. Sooner or later around 1820, the world development rate began to climb, averaging a little more than one 50% of one percent every year from 1820 to 1870, and topping amid what Maddison calls the "brilliant age", the period from 1950 to 1973, when it found the middle value of 2.93% every year. By 2000, world every capita GDP had climbed to more than 8 ½ times its 1820 quality. Development has been uneven crosswise over time as well as crosswise over nations. Since 1820, living guidelines in Western Europe and its branches in North America and the Antipodes have dashed in front of whatever remains of the world, except for Japan, in what is frequently alluded to as the "Extraordinary Divergence". The corresponding crevice in every capita GDP between the wealthiest gathering of nations and the poorest gathering (as ordered by Maddison) developed from 3 in 1820 to 19 in 1998. Pritchett (1997) recounts a comparable story, assessing that the relative crevice between the wealthiest and poorest nations developed more than five-fold from 1870 to 1990. Conclusion: We have proposed that the worldwide contrasts in pay per capita are best comprehended utilizing an enlarged Solow development model where physical to human capita degree is utilized rather their level underway capacity. In our model, yield is delivered from physical to human capital proportion what's more work, and that yield is utilized for speculation as a part of physical to human capital degree and utilization. The key object of the paper is to explore how well physical to human capital degree fits in the experimental development consider other than the merging issue. Despite the fact that not the relationship help the positive relationship between normal every capita pay development and EL/E*e, there is a critical positive relationship between the normal every capita salary
- 5. development and changingin EL/E*e. This study gives confirm that the communication between (K/H) and monetary development has a tendency to be sure in the example of 36 nations for the years 1990 and 2000. All the more by and large, our result demonstrates that Solow model predictable with the worldwide proof regardless of the fact that we utilize (K/H). Hence, our increasing Solow model says that the distinctions in sparing (evolving in (EL/E*e)) and populace and persistence level development should clarify crosscountry contrasts in every capita wage. The union rate is higher than 2% which is more noteworthy than general discoveries. The used information may be steady with the two-segment models of endogenous development with expansive modification costs for moving human capital and models of mechanical dispersion. Exploring the straight relationship between the physical to human capital proportion and the yield development appears to fit well, which give just circuitous affirmation for the unevenness impact.
- 6. Work Cited Evans, Paul.“Using Cross-Country Variances to Evaluate Growth Theories.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20 (June-July 1996): 1027-49. Frankel, Marvin. “The Production Function in Allocation and Growth: A Synthesis.” American Economic Review 52 (1962): 995-1022. Greenwood, Jeremy, and Mehmet Yorukoglu. “1974.” Carnegie- Rochester ConferenceSeries on Public Policy 46 (June 1997): 49-95. Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Development Centre Studies. Paris: OECD, 2001. What is written on the file you have attached is not what I expected , there are some issues: 1- you did not mention the reference that I gave you, that should be mentioned and all the essay must be based on (MRW). 2- No equations on the essay except one basic equation about education. You can find on the reference there are many equations are related to the subject. 3- You have to focus on the data between p.436-436 analyze them with interpretation and explanation. 4- No problem if you use other references related to the main reference. You can use quotations and citations as well. In the equation you can use a special format for that on (Microsoft Word) the way that you wrote the equations the last time is not acceptable.
- 7. I need thecode file as wellalso; you have to use Harvard style with the references Regards Kindly do not forget to put: - Brief introduction about the subject - Brief conclusion - Equations - Graphs if you could - Citations - Quotations with page numbers after the date - List of references in the last page of the essay - 1500 words is the maximum number do not make it more Professional work are needed I'm a postgraduate student Please answer the question carefully this time I paid a lot of money for a good work and that was not. PLEASE SEE NEXT PAGE micecoo.docx I'm a postgraduate student in UK I have A 1500 essay I need your help please Assessment: In a popular paper published in 1992 by the Quarterly Journal of Economics (QJE), Gregory Mankiw, David Romer and David Weil
- 8. (MRW) conclude that: "internationaldifferences in income per capita are best understood using an [economic] growth model [where] output is produced from physical capital, human capital, and labor, and is used for investment in physical capital, investment in human capital, and consumption." (Mankiw et al. 1992 , p. 432) Using the Eviews/GRETL dataset attached, carefully explain the empirical evidence MRW provide in support in of their thesis. In the light of this econometric analysis, do you share the authors’ conclusion above? Answer in about 1500 words (all included). Additional information Deadline: Please submit an electronic copy of your essay on Study Space Weight: 50% of portfolio assessment, 22.5% of total marks. References [MRW] Mankiw, N.G., Romer, D., Weil, D.N., (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 407–437. doi:10.2307/2118477 <Available at: http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/107/2/407.abstract > I can provide you the reference and all data you need to do the
- 9. essay with . Youcan use one of them (E-views or Gretl) it's you choice you can find all data on Mankiw et al. (1992)'s Appendix All data Here with the required reading material p.434-436 page434.pdf A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth Author(s): N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer and David N. Weil Source: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 2 (May, 1992), pp. 407-437 Published by: Oxford University Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118477 . Accessed: 21/10/2014 08:12 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected] . Oxford University Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Quarterly
- 10. Journal of Economics. http://www.jstor.org Thiscontent downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=oup http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118477?origin=JSTOR-pdf http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp A CONTRIBUTION TO THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH* N. GREGORY MANKIW DAVID ROMER DAVID N. WEIL This paper examines whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living. It shows that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data. The paper also examines the implications of the Solow model for convergence in standards of living, that is, for whether poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries. The evidence indicates that, holding population growth and capital
- 11. accumulation constant, countries convergeat about the rate the augmented Solow model predicts. INTRODUCTION This paper takes Robert Solow seriously. In his classic 1956 article Solow proposed that we begin the study of economic growth by assuming a standard neoclassical production function with decreasing returns to capital. Taking the rates of saving and population growth as exogenous, he showed that these two vari- ables determine the steady-state level of income per capita. Be- cause saving and population growth rates vary across countries, different countries reach different steady states. Solow's model gives simple testable predictions about how these variables influ- ence the steady-state level of income. The higher the rate of saving, the richer the country. The higher the rate of population growth, the poorer the country. This paper argues that the predictions of the Solow model are, to a first approximation, consistent with the evidence. Examining recently available data for a large set of countries, we find that saving and population growth affect income in the directions that Solow predicted. Moreover, more than half of the cross-country variation in income per capita can be explained by these two variables alone. Yet all is not right for the Solow model. Although the model correctly predicts the directions of the effects of saving and *We are grateful to Karen Dynan for research assistance, to
- 12. Laurence Ball, Olivier Blanchard,Anne Case, Lawrence Katz, Robert King, Paul Romer, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Amy Salsbury, Robert Solow, Lawrence Summers, Peter Temin, and the referees for helpful comments, and to the National Science Foundation for financial support. ? 1992 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1992 This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 408 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS population growth, it does not correctly predict the magnitudes. In the data the effects of saving and population growth on income are too large. To understand the relation between saving, population growth, and income, one must go beyond the textbook Solow model. We therefore augment the Solow model by including accumu- lation of human as well as physical capital. The exclusion of human capital from the textbook Solow model can potentially explain why
- 13. the estimated influencesof saving and population growth appear too large, for two reasons. First, for any given rate of human- capital accumulation, higher saving or lower population growth leads to a higher level of income and thus a higher level of human capital; hence, accumulation of physical capital and population growth have greater impacts on income when accumulation of human capital is taken into account. Second, human-capital accu- mulation may be correlated with saving rates and population growth rates; this would imply that omitting human-capital accu- mulation biases the estimated coefficients on saving and population growth. To test the augmented Solow model, we include a proxy for human-capital accumulation as an additional explanatory variable in our cross-country regressions. We find that accumulation of human capital is in fact correlated with saving and population growth. Including human-capital accumulation lowers the esti- mated effects of saving and population growth to roughly the values predicted by the augmented Solow model. Moreover, the augmented model accounts for about 80 percent of the cross- country variation in income. Given the inevitable imperfections in this sort of cross-country data, we consider the fit of this simple model to be remarkable. It appears that the augmented Solow model provides an almost complete explanation of why some countries are rich and other countries are poor. After developing and testing the augmented Solow model, we examine an issue that has received much attention in recent years: the failure of countries to converge in per capita income. We
- 14. argue that one shouldnot expect convergence. Rather, the Solow model predicts that countries generally reach different steady states. We examine empirically the set of countries for which nonconvergence has been widely documented in past work. We find that once differences in saving and population growth rates are accounted for, there is convergence at roughly the rate that the model predicts. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 409 Finally, we discuss the predictions of the Solow model for international variation in rates of return and for capital move- ments. The model predicts that poor countries should tend to have higher rates of return to physical and human capital. We discuss various evidence that one might use to evaluate this prediction. In contrast to many recent authors, we interpret the available evidence on rates of return as generally consistent with the Solow model. Overall, the findings reported in this paper cast doubt on the recent trend among economists to dismiss the Solow growth model
- 15. in favor ofendogenous-growth models that assume constant or increasing returns to scale in capital. One can explain much of the cross-country variation in income while maintaining the assump- tion of decreasing returns. This conclusion does not imply, how- ever, that the Solow model is a complete theory of growth: one would like also to understand the determinants of saving, popula- tion growth, and worldwide technological change, all of which the Solow model treats as exogenous. Nor does it imply that endogenous- growth models are not important, for they may provide the right explanation of worldwide technological change. Our conclusion does imply, however, that the Solow model gives the right answers to the questions it is designed to address. I. THE TEXTBOOK SOLOW MODEL We begin by briefly reviewing the Solow growth model. We focus on the model's implications for cross-country data. A. The Model Solow's model takes the rates of saving, population growth, and technological progress as exogenous. There are two inputs, capital and labor, which are paid their marginal products. We assume a Cobb-Douglas production function, so production at time t is given by (1) Y(t) = K(t)a(A(t)L(t))l- 0 < a. < 1. The notation is standard: Y is output, K capital, L labor, and A
- 16. the level of technology.L and A are assumed to grow exogenously at rates n and g: (2) L (t) = L ()ent (3) A (t) = A (r)ent. The number of effective units of labor, A (t)L (t), grows at rate n + g. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 410 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS The model assumes that a constant fraction of output, s, is invested. Defining k as the stock of capital per effective unit of labor, k = KIAL, and y as the level of output per effective unit of labor, y = Y/AL, the evolution of k is governed by (4) k(t) = sy(t) - (n + g + 8)k (t) = sk(t)0 - (n + g + 8)k(t), where 8 is the rate of depreciation. Equation (4) implies that k converges to a steady-state value k* defined by sk *a = (n + g + 8)k *, or
- 17. (5) k* =[s/(n + g + 5)]1I(1-a) The steady-state capital-labor ratio is related positively to the rate of saving and negatively to the rate of population growth. The central predictions of the Solow model concern the impact of saving and population growth on real income. Substituting (5) into the production function and taking logs, we find that steady- state income per capita is (6)tl [Ot]ln()gt (6) In = In A (0) + gt + 1 In(s) - 1 ln(n + g + 8). Because the model assumes that factors are paid their marginal products, it predicts not only the signs but also the magnitudes of the coefficients on saving and population growth. Specifically, because capital's share in income (a) is roughly one third, the model implies an elasticity of income per capita with respect to the saving rate of approximately 0.5 and an elasticity with respect to n + g + 8 of approximately -0.5. B. Specification The natural question to consider is whether the data support the Solow model's predictions concerning the determinants of standards of living. In other words, we want to investigate whether real income is higher in countries with higher saving rates and lower in countries with higher values of n + g + 5.
- 18. We assume thatg and 8 are constant across countries. g reflects primarily the advancement of knowledge, which is not country-specific. And there is neither any strong reason to expect depreciation rates to vary greatly across countries, nor are there any data that would allow us to estimate country-specific deprecia- tion rates. In contrast, the A(0) term reflects not just technology This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 411 but resource endowments, climate, institutions, and so on; it may therefore differ across countries. We assume that lnA(O) = a + E, where a is a constant and E is a country-specific shock. Thus, log income per capita at a given time-time 0 for simplicity-is (7) In a+ In(s)- In(n+g+8)+E. Equation (7) is our basic empirical specification in this section. We assume that the rates of saving and population growth are independent of country-specific factors shifting the production function. That is, we assume that s and n are independent of e. This
- 19. assumption implies thatwe can estimate equation (7) with ordi- nary least squares (OLS).1 There are three reasons for making this assumption of indepen- dence. First, this assumption is made not only in the Solow model, but also in many standard models of economic growth. In any model in which saving and population growth are endogenous but preferences are isoelastic, s and n are unaffected by E. In other words, under isoelastic utility, permanent differences in the level of technology do not affect saving rates or population growth rates. Second, much recent theoretical work on growth has been motivated by informal examinations of the relationships between saving, population growth, and income. Many economists have asserted that the Solow model cannot account for the international differences in income, and this alleged failure of the Solow model has stimulated work on endogenous-growth theory. For example, Romer [1987, 1989a] suggests that saving has too large an influence on growth and takes this to be evidence for positive externalities from capital accumulation. Similarly, Lucas [1988] asserts that variation in population growth cannot account for any substantial variation in real incomes along the lines predicted by the Solow model. By maintaining the identifying assumption that s and n are independent of E, we are able to determine whether systematic examination of the data confirms these informal
- 20. judg- ments. 1. If sand n are endogenous and influenced by the level of income, then estimates of equation (7) using ordinary least squares are potentially inconsistent. In this case, to obtain consistent estimates, one needs to find instrumental variables that are correlated with s and n, but uncorrelated with the country-specific shift in the production function e. Finding such instrumental variables is a formidable task, however. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 412 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Third, because the model predicts not just the signs but also the magnitudes of the coefficients on saving and population growth, we can gauge whether there are important biases in the estimates obtained with OLS. As described above, data on factor shares imply that, if the model is correct, the elasticities of Y/L with respect to s and n + g + 8 are approximately 0.5 and -0.5. If OLS yields coefficients that are substantially different from these values, then we can reject the joint hypothesis that the Solow model and our identifying assumption are correct.
- 21. Another way toevaluate the Solow model would be to impose on equation (7) a value of ao derived from data on factor shares and then to ask how much of the cross-country variation in income the model can account for. That is, using an approach analogous to "growth accounting," we could compute the fraction of the vari- ance in living standards that is explained by the mechanism identified by the Solow model.2 In practice, because we do not have exact estimates of factor shares, we do not emphasize this growth- accounting approach. Rather, we estimate equation (7) by OLS and examine the plausibility of the implied factor shares. The fit of this regression shows the result of a growth-accounting exercise per- formed with the estimated value of a. If the estimated a differs from the value obtained a priori from factor shares, we can compare the fit of the estimated regression with the fit obtained by imposing the a priori value. C. Data and Samples The data are from the Real National Accounts recently constructed by Summers and Heston [1988]. The data set includes real income, government and private consumption, investment, and population for almost all of the world other than the centrally planned economies. The data are annual and cover the period 1960-1985. We measure n as the average rate of growth of the working-age population, where working age is defined as 15 to 64.3
- 22. We measure sas the average share of real investment (including 2. In standard growth accounting, factor shares are used to decompose growth over time in a single country into a part explained by growth in factor inputs and an unexplained part-the Solow residual-which is usually attributed to technological change. In this cross-country analogue, factor shares are used to decompose variation in income across countries into a part explained by variation in saving and population growth rates and an unexplained part, which could be attributed to international differences in the level of technology. 3. Data on the fraction of the population of working age are from the World Bank's World Tables and the 1988 World Development Report. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 413 government investment) in real GDP, and Y/L as real GDP in 1985 divided by the working-age population in that year. We consider three samples of countries. The most comprehen- sive consists of all countries for which data are available other than
- 23. those for whichoil production is the dominant industry.4 This sample consists of 98 countries. We exclude the oil producers because the bulk of recorded GDP for these countries represents the extraction of existing resources, not value added; one should not expect standard growth models to account for measured GDP in these countries.5 Our second sample excludes countries whose data receive a grade of "D" from Summers and Heston or whose populations in 1960 were less than one million. Summers and Heston use the "D" grade to identify countries whose real income figures are based on extremely little primary data; measurement error is likely to be a greater problem for these countries. We omit the small countries because the determination of their real income may be dominated by idiosyncratic factors. This sample consists of 75 countries. The third sample consists of the 22 OECD countries with populations greater than one million. This sample has the advan- tages that the data appear to be uniformly of high quality and that the variation in omitted country-specific factors is likely to be small. But it has the disadvantages that it is small in size and that it discards much of the variation in the variables of interest. See the Appendix for the countries in each of the samples and the data. D. Results
- 24. We estimate equation(7) both with and without imposing the constraint that the coefficients on ln(s) and ln(n + g + 8) are equal in magnitude and opposite in sign. We assume that g + 8 is 0.05; reasonable changes in this assumption have little effect on the estimates.6 Table I reports the results. 4. For purposes of comparability, we restrict the sample to countries that have not only the data used in this section, but also the data on human capital described in Section II. 5. The countries that are excluded on this basis are Bahrain, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, Lesotho is excluded because the sum of private and government consumption far exceeds GDP in every year of the sample, indicating that labor income from abroad constitutes an extremely large fraction of GNP. 6. We chose this value of g + 8 to match the available data. In U. S. data the capital consumption allowance is about 10 percent of GNP, and the capital-output ratio is about three, which implies that 8 is about 0.03; Romer [1989a, p. 60] presents a calculation for a broader sample of countries and concludes that 8 is This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
- 25. http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 414 QUARTERLY JOURNALOF ECONOMICS TABLE I ESTIMATION OF THE TEXTBOOK SOLOW MODEL Dependent variable: log GDP per working-age person in 1985 Sample: Non-oil Intermediate OECD Observations: 98 75 22 CONSTANT 5.48 5.36 7.97 (1.59) (1.55) (2.48) ln(I/GDP) 1.42 1.31 0.50 (0.14) (0.17) (0.43) ln(n + g + 8) -1.97 -2.01 -0.76 (0.56) (0.53) (0.84) H2 0.59 0.59 0.01 s.e.e. 0.69 0.61 0.38 Restricted regression: CONSTANT 6.87 7.10 8.62 (0.12) (0.15) (0.53) ln(I/GDP) - ln(n + g + 8) 1.48 1.43 0.56 (0.12) (0.14) (0.36) 1?2 0.59 0.59 0.06 s.e.e. 0.69 0.61 0.37 Test of restriction: p-value 0.38 0.26 0.79
- 26. Implied a 0.600.59 0.36 (0.02) (0.02) (0.15) Note. Standard errors are in parentheses. The investment and population growth rates are averages for the period 1960-1985. (g + 8) is assumed to be 0.05. Three aspects of the results support the Solow model. First, the coefficients on saving and population growth have the predicted signs and, for two of the three samples, are highly significant. Second, the restriction that the coefficients on ln(s) and ln(n + g + 8) are equal in magnitude and opposite in sign is not rejected in any of the samples. Third, and perhaps most important, differences in saving and population growth account for a large fraction of the cross-country variation in income per capita. In the regression for the intermediate sample, for example, the adjusted R2 is 0.59. In contrast to the common claim that the Solow model "explains" cross-country variation in labor productivity largely by appealing to variations in technologies, the two readily observable about 0.03 or 0.04. In addition, growth in income per capita has averaged 1.7 percent per year in the United States and 2.2 percent per year in our intermediate sample; this suggests that g is about 0.02. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM
- 27. All use subjectto JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 415 variables on which the Solow model focuses in fact account for most of the variation in income per capita. Nonetheless, the model is not completely successful. In par- ticular, the estimated impacts of saving and labor force growth are much larger than the model predicts. The value of a. implied by the coefficients should equal capital's share in income, which is roughly one third. The estimates, however, imply an a that is much higher. For example, the a implied by the coefficient in the constrained regression for the intermediate sample is 0.59 (with a standard error of 0.02). Thus, the data strongly contradict the prediction that a = 1/3. Because the estimates imply such a high capital share, it is inappropriate to conclude that the Solow model is successful just because the regressions in Table I can explain a high fraction of the variation in income. For the intermediate sample, for instance, when we employ the "growth-accounting" approach described above and constrain the coefficients to be consistent with an a of one third, the adjusted R2 falls from 0.59 to 0.28. Although the excellent fit of the simple regressions in Table I is promising for the
- 28. theory of growthin general-it implies that theories based on easily observable variables may be able to account for most of the cross-country variation in real income it is not supportive of the textbook Solow model in particular. II. ADDING HUMAN-CAPITAL ACCUMULATION TO THE SOLOW MODEL Economists have long stressed the importance of human capital to the process of growth. One might expect that ignoring human capital would lead to incorrect conclusions: Kendrick [1976] estimates that over half of the total U. S. capital stock in 1969 was human capital. In this section we explore the effect of adding human-capital accumulation to the Solow growth model. Including human capital can potentially alter either the theoretical modeling or the empirical analysis of economic growth. At the theoretical level, properly accounting for human capital may change one's view of the nature of the growth process. Lucas [1988], for example, assumes that although there are decreasing returns to physical-capital accumulation when human capital is held constant, the returns to all reproducible capital (human plus physical) are constant. We discuss this possibility in Section III. At the empirical level, the existence of human capital can alter the analysis of cross-country differences; in the regressions in This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
- 29. http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 416 QUARTERLY JOURNALOF ECONOMICS Table I human capital is an omitted variable. It is this empirical problem that we pursue in this section. We first expand the Solow model of Section I to include human capital. We show how leaving out human capital affects the coefficients on physical capital investment and population growth. We then run regressions analogous to those in Table I to see whether proxies for human capital can resolve the anomalies found in the first section.7 A. The Model Let the production function be (8) Y(t) = K(t)H(t)P(A(t)L(t))1-a-, where H is the stock of human capital, and all other variables are defined as before. Let Sk be the fraction of income invested in physical capital and Sh the fraction invested in human capital. The evolution of the economy is determined by (9a) k(t) = sky(t) - (n + g + 8)k(t), (9b) h(t) = Shy(t) - (n + g + 8)h(t), where y = Y/AL, k = K/AL, and h = H/AL are quantities per effective unit of labor. We are assuming that the same production function applies to human capital, physical capital, and consump-
- 30. tion. In otherwords, one unit of consumption can be transformed costlessly into either one unit of physical capital or one unit of human capital. In addition, we are assuming that human capital depreciates at the same rate as physical capital. Lucas [1988] models the production function for human capital as fundamen- tally different from that for other goods. We believe that, at least for an initial examination, it is natural to assume that the two types of production functions are similar. We assume that a + ,B < 1, which implies that there are decreasing returns to all capital. (If a + ,B = 1, then there are constant returns to scale in the reproducible factors. In this case, 7. Previous authors have provided evidence of the importance of human capital for growth in income. Azariadis and Drazen [1990] find that no country was able to grow quickly during the postwar period without a highly literate labor force. They interpret this as evidence that there is a threshold externality associated with human capital accumulation. Similarly, Rauch [1988] finds that among countries that had achieved 95 percent adult literacy in 1960, there was a strong tendency for income per capita to converge over the period 1950-1985. Romer [1989b] finds that literacy in 1960 helps explain subsequent investment and that, if one corrects for measurement error, literacy has no impact on growth beyond its effect on investment. There is also older work stressing the role of human capital in
- 31. development; for example,see Krueger [1968] and Easterlin [1981]. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 417 there is no steady state for this model. We discuss this possibility in Section III.) Equations (9a) and (9b) imply that the economy converges to a steady state defined by n + g + (10) (* a k -S a 1/(1-a-) , n +g+ / Substituting (10) into the production function and taking logs gives an equation for income per capita similar to equation (6) above: (1 1) In [L(t)| In A(O) + gt - + (I ln(n + g + a Y (t)]_ + Iln(Sk) + In(Sh) This equation shows how income per capita depends on
- 32. population growth and accumulationof physical and human capital. Like the textbook Solow model, the augmented model predicts coefficients in equation (11) that are functions of the factor shares. As before, a is physical capital's share of income, so we expect a value of a of about one third. Gauging a reasonable value of P, human capital's share, is more difficult. In the United States the minimum wage-roughly the return to labor without human capital-has averaged about 30 to 50 percent of the average wage in manufacturing. This fact suggests that 50 to 70 percent of total labor income represents the return to human capital, or that ,B is between one third and one half. Equation (11) makes two predictions about the regressions run in Section I, in which human capital was ignored. First, even if In (Sh) is independent of the other right-hand side variables, the coefficient on ln(sk) is greater than a/(1 - a). For example, if a = P = 1/3, then the coefficient on ln(sk) would be 1. Because higher saving leads to higher income, it leads to a higher steady-state level of human capital, even if the percentage of income devoted to human-capital accumulation is unchanged. Hence, the presence of human-capital accumulation increases the impact of physical- capital accumulation on income. Second, the coefficient on ln(n + g + 8) is larger in absolute
- 33. This content downloadedfrom 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 418 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS value than the coefficient on ln(sk). If a =P = 1/3, for example, the coefficient on ln(n + g + 8) would be -2. In this model high population growth lowers income per capita because the amounts of both physical and human capital must be spread more thinly over the population. There is an alternative way to express the role of human capital in determining income in this model. Combining (11) with the equation for the steady-state level of human capital given in (10) yields an equation for income as a function of the rate of investment in physical capital, the rate of population growth, and the level of human capital: (12) In [L(t) = InA(O) + gt + 1 _ ln(sk) aL Wi 1 -a n(n + g + 8) + - ln(h*). Equation (12) is almost identical to equation (6) in Section I. In that model the level of human capital is a component of the error term. Because the saving and population growth rates influence h *, one should expect human capital to be positively correlated
- 34. with the savingrate and negatively correlated with population growth. Therefore, omitting the human-capital term biases the coefficients on saving and population growth. The model with human capital suggests two possible ways to modify our previous regressions. One way is to estimate the augmented model's reduced form, that is, equation (11), in which the rate of human-capital accumulation ln(sh) is added to the right-hand side. The second way is to estimate equation (12), in which the level of human capital In (h *) is added to the right- hand side. Notice that these alternative regressions predict different coefficients on the saving and population growth terms. When testing the augmented Solow model, a primary question is whether the available data on human capital correspond more closely to the rate of accumulation (Sh) or to the level of human capital (h). B. Data To implement the model, we restrict our focus to human- capital investment in the form of education-thus ignoring invest- ment in health, among other things. Despite this narrowed focus, measurement of human capital presents great practical difficulties. Most important, a large part of investment in education takes the This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
- 35. http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OFECONOMIC GROWTH 419 form of forgone labor earnings on the part of students.8 This problem is difficult to overcome because forgone earnings vary with the level of human-capital investment: a worker with little human capital forgoes a low wage in order to accumulate more human capital, whereas a worker with much human capital forgoes a higher wage. In addition, explicit spending on education takes place at all levels of government as well as by the family, which makes spending on education hard to measure. Finally, not all spending on education is intended to yield productive human capital: philosophy, religion, and literature, for example, although serving in part to train the mind, might also be a form of consumption.9 We use a proxy for the rate of human-capital accumulation (Sh) that measures approximately the percentage of the working-age population that is in secondary school. We begin with data on the fraction of the eligible population (aged 12 to 17) enrolled in secondary school, which we obtained from the UNESCO yearbook. We then multiply this enrollment rate by the fraction of the working-age population that is of school age (aged 15 to 19). This variable, which we call SCHOOL, is clearly imperfect: the age ranges in the two data series are not exactly the same, the variable
- 36. does not includethe input of teachers, and it completely ignores primary and higher education. Yet if SCHOOL is proportional to Sh, then we can use it to estimate equation (11); the factor of proportionality will affect only the constant term.10 This measure indicates that investment in physical capital and population growth may be proxying for human-capital accumula- tion in the regressions in Table I. The correlation between SCHOOL 8. Kendrick [19761 calculates that for the United States in 1969 total gross investment in education and training was $192.3 billion, of which $92.3 billion took the form of imputed compensation to students (tables A-1 and B-2). 9. An additional problem with implementing the augmented model is that "output" in the model is not the same as that measured in the national income accounts. Much of the expenditure on human capital is forgone wages, and these forgone wages should be included in Y. Yet measured GDP fails to include this component of investment spending. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that this problem is not quantita- tively important, however. If human capital accumulation is completely unmea- sured, then measured GDP is (1 - Sh)y. One can show that this measurement problem does not affect the elasticity of GDP with respect to
- 37. physical investment or populationgrowth. The elasticity of measured GDP with respect to human capital accumulation is reduced by Shl(l - Sh) compared with the elasticity of true GDP with respect to human capital accumulation. Because the fraction of a nation's resources devoted to human capital accumulation is small, this effect is small. For example, if a = P = 1/3 and Sh = 0.1, then the elasticity will be 0.9 rather than 1.0. 10. Even under the weaker assumption that ln(sh) is linear in In (SCHOOL), we can use the estimated coefficients on ln(sk) and In (n + g + 5) to infer values of a and P; in this case, the estimated coefficient on In (SCHOOL) will not have an interpretation. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 420 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS and I/GDP is 0.59 for the intermediate sample, and the correlation between SCHOOL and the population growth rate is -0.38. Thus, including human-capital accumulation could alter substantially the estimated impact of physical-capital accumulation and popula-
- 38. tion growth onincome per capita. C. Results Table II presents regressions of the log of income per capita on the log of the investment rate, the log of n + g + 8, and the log of the percentage of the population in secondary school. The human- capital measure enters significantly in all three samples. It also TABLE II ESTIMATION OF THE AUGMENTED SOLOW MODEL Dependent variable: log GDP per working-age person in 1985 Sample: Non-oil Intermediate OECD Observations: 98 75 22 CONSTANT 6.89 7.81 8.63 (1.17) (1.19) (2.19) ln(I/GDP) 0.69 0.70 0.28 (0.13) (0.15) (0.39) ln(n + g + 5) -1.73 -1.50 -1.07 (0.41) (0.40) (0.75) ln(SCHOOL) 0.66 0.73 0.76 (0.07) (0.10) (0.29) R2 0.78 0.77 0.24 s.e.e. 0.51 0.45 0.33 Restricted regression: CONSTANT 7.86 7.97 8.71 (0.14) (0.15) (0.47)
- 39. ln(I/GDP) - ln(n+ g + 5) 0.73 0.71 0.29 (0.12) (0.14) (0.33) ln(SCHOOL) - ln(n + g + 5) 0.67 0.74 0.76 (0.07) (0.09) (0.28) R2 0.78 0.77 0.28 s.e.e. 0.51 0.45 0.32 Test of restriction: p-value 0.41 0.89 0.97 Implied a 0.31 0.29 0.14 (0.04) (0.05) (0.15) Implied , 0.28 0.30 0.37 (0.03) (0.04) (0.12) Note. Standard errors are in parentheses. The investment and population growth rates are averages for the period 1960-1985. (g + 8) is assumed to be 0.05. SCHOOL is the average percentage of the working-age population in secondary school for the period 1960-1985. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 421 greatly reduces the size of the coefficient on physical capital investment and improves the fit of the regression compared with Table I. These three variables explain almost 80 percent of the
- 40. cross-country variation inincome per capita in the non-oil and intermediate samples. The results in Table II strongly support the augmented Solow model. Equation (11) shows that the augmented model predicts that the coefficients on In (IIY), In (SCHOOL), and In (n + g + 8) sum to zero. The bottom half of Table II shows that, for all three samples, this restriction is not rejected. The last lines of the table give the values of a and ,B implied by the coefficients in the restricted regression. For non-oil and intermediate samples, a and ,B are about one third and highly significant. The estimates for the OECD alone are less precise. In this sample the coefficients on investment and population growth are not statistically significant; but they are also not significantly different from the estimates obtained in the larger samples.'1 We conclude that adding human capital to the Solow model improves its performance. Allowing for human capital eliminates the worrisome anomalies-the high coefficients on investment and on population growth in our Table I regressions-that arise when the textbook Solow model is confronted with the data. The parameter estimates seem reasonable. And even using an imprecise proxy for human capital, we are able to dispose of a fairly large part of the model's residual variance. III. ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE
- 41. Over the pastfew years economists studying growth have turned increasingly to endogenous-growth models. These models are characterized by the assumption of nondecreasing returns to the set of reproducible factors of production. For example, our model with physical and human capital would become an endoge- nous-growth model if a + ,B = 1. Among the implications of this assumption are that countries that save more grow faster indefi- nitely and that countries need not converge in income per capita, even if they have the same preferences and technology. 11. As we described in the previous footnote, under the weaker assumption that ln(sh) is linear in In (SCHOOL), estimates of a and , can be inferred from the coefficients on ln(I/GDP) and ln(n + g + 5) in the unrestricted regression. When we do this, we obtain estimates of a and , little different from those reported in Table II. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 422 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Advocates of endogenous-growth models present them as alternatives to the Solow model and motivate them by an alleged
- 42. empirical failure ofthe Solow model to explain cross-country differences. Barro [1989] presents the argument succinctly: In neoclassical growth models with diminishing returns, such as Solow (1956), Cass (1965) and Koopmans (1965), a country's per capita growth rate tends to be inversely related to its starting level of income per person. Therefore, in the absence of shocks, poor and rich countries would tend to converge in terms of levels of per capita income. However, this convergence hypothesis seems to be inconsistent with the cross-country evidence, which indicates that per capita growth rates are uncorrelated with the starting level of per capita product. Our first goal in this section is to reexamine this evidence on convergence to assess whether it contradicts the Solow model. Our second goal is to generalize our previous results. To implement the Solow model, we have been assuming that countries in 1985 were in their steady states (or, more generally, that the deviations from steady state were random). Yet this assumption is questionable. We therefore examine the predictions of the aug- mented Solow model for behavior out of the steady state. A. Theory The Solow model predicts that countries reach different steady states. In Section II we argued that much of the cross-country differences in income per capita can be traced to differing determi- nants of the steady state in the Solow growth model:
- 43. accumulation of human andphysical capital and population growth. Thus, the Solow model does not predict convergence; it predicts only that income per capita in a given country converges to that country's steady-state value. In other words, the Solow model predicts convergence only after controlling for the determinants of the steady state, a phenomenon that might be called "conditional convergence." In addition, the Solow model makes quantitative predictions about the speed of convergence to steady state. Let y * be the steady-state level of income per effective worker given by equation (11), and let y(t) be the actual value at time t. Approximating around the steady state, the speed of convergence is given by d ln(y(t)) (13) dt = X[ln(y*) -ln(y(t))], where A = (n + g + a) (1-a - This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 423 For example, if a = P = 1/3 and n + g + 8 = 0.06, then the convergence rate (A) would equal 0.02. This implies that the economy moves halfway to steady state in about 35 years. Notice
- 44. that the textbookSolow model, which excludes human capital, implies much faster convergence. If IB = 0, then X becomes 0.04, and the economy moves halfway to steady state in about seventeen years. The model suggests a natural regression to study the rate of convergence. Equation (13) implies that (14) ln(y(t)) = (1 - e-At) ln(y*) + e-At ln(y(0)), where y(O) is income per effective worker at some initial date. Subtracting In (y(O)) from both sides, (15) ln(y(t)) - ln(y(0)) = (1 - e-t) ln(y*) - (1 - e-At) ln(y(0)). Finally, substituting for y*: (16) ln(y(t)) - ln(y(0)) = (1 - e-t) ln(sk) + (1 - e-t) ln(sh) - (1 - eAxt) l _ _ In(n + g + 8) - (1 - e-t) ln(y(0)). Thus, in the Solow model the growth of income is a function of the determinants of the ultimate steady state and the initial level of income. Endogenous-growth models make predictions very different from the Solow model regarding convergence among countries. In endogenous-growth models there is no steady-state level of income; differences among countries in income per capita can persist
- 45. indefinitely, even ifthe countries have the same saving and population growth rates.12 Endogenous-growth models with a 12. Although we do not explore the issue here, endogenous- growth models also make quantitative predictions about the impact of saving on growth. The models are typically characterized by constant returns to reproducible factors of production, namely physical and human capital. Our model of Section II with a + , = 1 and g = 0 provides a simple way of analyzing the predictions of models of endogenous growth. With these modifications to the model of Section II, the production function is Y = AKaH1-a. In this form the model predicts that the ratio of physical to human capital, K/H, will converge to SkiSh, and that K, H, and Y will then all grow at rate A(Sk)a(Sh )'-a. The derivative of this "steady-state" growth rate with respect to Sk is then aA(ShlSk) 1- = atI(KIY). The impact of saving on growth depends on the This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 424 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS single sector-those with the "Y = AK" production function- predict no convergence of any sort. That is, these simple endoge-
- 46. nous-growth models predicta coefficient of zero on y(O) in the regression in (16). As Barro [1989] notes, however, endogenous- growth models with more than one sector may imply convergence if the initial income of a country is correlated with the degree of imbalance among sectors. Before presenting the results on convergence, we should note the differences between regressions based on equation (16) and those we presented earlier. The regressions in Tables I and II are valid only if countries are in their steady states or if deviations from steady state are random. Equation (16) has the advantage of explicitly taking into account out-of-steady-state dynamics. Yet, implementing equation (16) introduces a new problem. If countries have permanent differences in their production functions-that is, different A (O)'s-then these A(O)'s would enter as part of the error term and would be positively correlated with initial income. Hence, variation inA (0) would bias the coefficient on initial income toward zero (and would potentially influence the other coefficients as well). In other words, permanent cross-country differences in the produc- tion function would lead to differences in initial incomes uncorre- lated with subsequent growth rates and, therefore, would bias the results against finding convergence. B. Results
- 47. We now testthe convergence predictions of the Solow model. We report regressions of the change in the log of income per capita over the period 1960 to 1985 on the log of income per capita in 1960, with and without controlling for investment, growth of the working-age population, and school enrollment. In Table III the log of income per capita appears alone on the right-hand side. This table reproduces the results of many previous authors on the failure of incomes to converge [De Long 1988; Romer 1987]. The coefficient on the initial level of income per capita is slightly positive for the non-oil sample and zero for the intermediate sample, and for both regressions the adjusted R2 is exponent on capital in the production function, a, and the capital-output ratio. In models in which endogenous growth arises mainly from externalities from physical capital, a is close to one, and the derivative of the growth rate with respect to Sk is approximately 1 I (KI Y), or about 0.4. In models in which endogenous growth arises largely from human capital accumulation and there are no externalities from physical capital, the derivative would be about 0.31(KIY), or about 0.12. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
- 48. THE EMPIRICS OFECONOMIC GROWTH 425 TABLE III TESTS FOR UNCONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE Dependent variable: log difference GDP per working-age person 1960-1985 Sample: Non-oil Intermediate OECD Observations: 98 75 22 CONSTANT -0.266 0.587 3.69 (0.380) (0.433) (0.68) ln(Y60) 0.0943 -0.00423 -0.341 (0.0496) (0.05484) (0.079) R2 0.03 -0.01 0.46 s.e.e. 0.44 0.41 0.18 Implied X -0.00360 0.00017 0.0167 (0.00219) (0.00218) (0.0023) Note. Standard errors are in parentheses. Y60 is GDP per working-age person in 1960. essentially zero. There is no tendency for poor countries to grow faster on average than rich countries. Table III does show, however, that there is a significant tendency toward convergence in the OECD sample. The coefficient on the initial level of income per capita is significantly negative, and
- 49. the adjusted R2of the regression is 0.46. This result confirms the findings of Dowrick and Nguyen [1989], among others. Table IV adds our measures of the rates of investment and population growth to the right-hand side of the regression. In all three samples the coefficient on the initial level of income is now significantly negative; that is, there is strong evidence of conver- gence. Moreover, the inclusion of investment and population growth rates improves substantially the fit of the regression. Table V adds our measure of human capital to the right-hand side of the regression in Table IV. This new variable further lowers the coefficient on the initial level of income, and it again improves the fit of the regression. Figure I presents a graphical demonstration of the effect of adding measures of population growth and accumulation of human and physical capital to the usual "convergence picture," first presented by Romer [1987]. The top panel presents a scatterplot for our intermediate sample of the average annual growth rate of income per capita from 1960 to 1985 against the log of income per capita in 1960. Clearly, there is no evidence that countries that start off poor tend to grow faster. The second panel of the figure This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
- 50. http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 426 QUARTERLY JOURNALOF ECONOMICS TABLE IV TESTS FOR CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE Dependent variable: log difference GDP per working-age person 1960-1985 Sample: Non-oil Intermediate OECD Observations: 98 75 22 CONSTANT 1.93 2.23 2.19 (0.83) (0.86) (1.17) ln(Y60) -0.141 -0.228 -0.351 (0.052) (0.057) (0.066) ln(I/GDP) 0.647 0.644 0.392 (0.087) (0.104) (0.176) ln(n + g + 8) -0.299 -0.464 -0.753 (0.304) (0.307) (0.341) R72 0.38 0.35 0.62 s.e.e. 0.35 0.33 0.15 Implied X 0.00606 0.0104 0.0173 (0.00182) (0.0019) (0.0019) Note. Standard errors are in parentheses. Y60 is GDP per working-age person in 1960. The investment and population growth rates are averages for the period 1960-1985. (g + 8) is assumed to be 0.05.
- 51. TABLE V TESTS FORCONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE Dependent variable: log difference GDP per working-age person 1960-1985 Sample: Non-oil Intermediate OECD Observations: 98 75 22 CONSTANT 3.04 3.69 2.81 (0.83) (0.91) (1.19) ln(Y60) -0.289 -0.366 -0.398 (0.062) (0.067) (0.070) ln(I/GDP) 0.524 0.538 0.335 (0.087) (0.102) (0.174) ln(n + g + 8) -0.505 -0.551 -0.844 (0.288) (0.288) (0.334) ln(SCHOOL) 0.233 0.271 0.223 (0.060) (0.081) (0.144) R2 0.46 0.43 0.65 s.e.e. 0.33 0.30 0.15 Implied X 0.0137 0.0182 0.0203 (0.0019) (0.0020) (0.0020) Note. Standard errors are in parentheses. Y60 is GDP per working-age person in 1960. The investment and population growth rates are averages for the period 1960-1985. (g + 8) is assumed to be 0.05. SCHOOL is the average percentage of the working-age population in secondary school for the period 1960-1985.
- 52. This content downloadedfrom 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 427 A. Unconditional co 6 0 6 0 0 00 (0 ~~~~~0 0 Q) 4 Oo R 0 0O 0 -- ~~00 0 0 2 2 o ? 0 o -~0 0 Oo0 00 ? -2 s 5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5 9.5 10.5 Log output per working age adult: 1960 B. Conditional on saving and population growth 6 ~~ ~~0 0 060 0 0 o0c~ 08 W, 4 _CP O? ?? ?0 8 = 2 0 o D 0 o 020 0 5 s,5 6.5 7, 5 8.5 9.5 10,5 Log output per working age adult:1960
- 53. C. Conditional onsaving, population growth and human capital LO 6 0 0 0~~~~~~ 2 - ? ? O??b 9 lb8 0~~~~~~ ? -2 w 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 Log output per working age adult: 1960 FIGURE I Unconditional versus Conditional Convergence This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 428 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS partials out the logs of the investment rate and (n + g + 5) from both the income level and growth rate variables. This figure shows that if countries did not vary in their investment and population growth rates, there would be a strong tendency for poor countries to grow faster than rich ones. The third panel of Figure I partials out our human-capital variable in addition to investment and population growth rates; the tendency toward convergence is now
- 54. even stronger. The resultsin Tables IV and V are notable not only for the finding of convergence, but also for the rate at which convergence occurs. The implied values of X, the parameter governing the speed of convergence, are derived from the coefficient on In (Y60). The values in Table IV are much smaller than the textbook Solow model predicts. Yet the estimates in Table V are closer to what the augmented Solow model predicts, for two reasons. First, the augmented model predicts a slower rate of convergence than the model without human capital. Second, the empirical results includ- ing human capital imply a faster rate of convergence than the empirical results without human capital. Hence, once again, the inclusion of human capital can help explain some results that appear anomalous from the vantage point of the textbook Solow model. Table VI presents estimates of equation (16) imposing the restriction that the coefficients on ln(sk), ln(sh), and ln(n + g + 5) sum to zero. We find that this restriction is not rejected and that imposing it has little effect on the coefficients. The last lines in Table VI present the implied values of a and ,. The estimates of a range from 0.38 to 0.48, and the estimates of ,B are 0.23 in all three samples. Compared with the results in Table II, these regressions give a somewhat larger weight to physical capital and a somewhat smaller weight to human capital.
- 55. In contrast tothe results in Tables I through IV, the results for the OECD sample in Tables V and VI are similar to those for the other samples. An interpretation that reconciles the similarity across samples here and the dissimilarity in the earlier specifica- tions is that departures from steady state represent a larger share of cross-country variation in income per capita for the OECD than for the broader samples. If the OECD countries are far from their steady states, then population growth and capital accumulation have not yet had their full impact on standards of living; hence, we obtain lower estimated coefficients and lower R 2's for the OECD in This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 429 TABLE VI TESTS FOR CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE, RESTRICTED REGRESSION Dependent variable: log difference GDP per working-age person 1960-1985 Sample: Non-oil Intermediate OECD
- 56. Observations: 98 7522 CONSTANT 2.46 3.09 3.55 (0.48) (0.53) (0.63) ln(Y60) -0.299 -0.372 -0.402 (0.061) (0.067) (0.069) ln(I/GDP) - ln(n + g + 5) 0.500 0.506 0.396 (0.082) (0.095) (0.152) ln(SCHOOL) - ln(n + g + 5) 0.238 0.266 0.236 (0.060) (0.080) (0.141) R2 0.46 0.44 0.66 s.e.e. 0.33 0.30 0.15 Test of restriction: p-value 0.40 0.42 0.47 ImpliedX 0.0142 0.0186 0.0206 (0.0019) (0.0019) (0.0020) Implied (x 0.48 0.44 0.38 (0.07) (0.07) (0.13) Implied 13 0.23 0.23 0.23 (0.05) (0.06) (0.11) Note. Standard errors are in parentheses. Y60 is GDP per working-age person in 1960. The investment and population growth rates are averages for the period 1960-1985. (g + 5) is assumed to be 0.05. SCHOOL is the average percentage of the working-age population in secondary school for the period 1960-1985. specifications that do not consider out-of-steady-state dynamics.
- 57. Similarly, the greaterimportance of departures from steady state for the OECD would explain the finding of greater unconditional convergence. We find this interpretation plausible: World War II surely caused large departures from the steady state, and it surely had larger effects on the OECD than on the rest of the world. With a value of X of 0.02, almost half of the departure from steady state in 1945 would have remained by the end of our sample in 1985. Overall, our interpretation of the evidence on convergence contrasts sharply with that of endogenous-growth advocates. In particular, we believe that the study of convergence does not show a failure of the Solow model. After controlling for those variables that the Solow model says determine the steady state, there is substantial convergence in income per capita. Moreover, conver- gence occurs at approximately the rate that the model predicts. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 430 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS IV. INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS AND CAPITAL MOVEMENTS
- 58. Recently, several economists,including Lucas [1988], Barro [1989], and King and Rebelo [1989], have emphasized an objection to the Solow model in addition to those we have addressed so far: they argue that the model fails to explain either rate-of-return differences or international capital flows. In the models of Sections I and II, the steady-state marginal product of capital, net of depreciation, is (17) MPK- 8 = u(n+ g + 8Sk Thus, the marginal product of capital varies positively with the population growth rate and negatively with the saving rate. Because the cross-country differences in saving and population growth rates are large, the differences in rates of return should also be large. For example, if at = 1/3, 8 = 0.03, and g = 0.02, then the mean of the steady-state net marginal product is 0.12 in the intermediate sample, and the standard deviation is 0.08.13 Two related facts seem inconsistent with these predictions. First, observed differentials in real interest rates appear smaller than the predicted differences in the net marginal product of capital. Second, as Feldstein and Horioka [1980] first documented, countries with high saving rates have high rates of domestic investment rather than large current account surpluses: capital does not flow from high-saving countries to low-saving countries. Although these two facts indeed present puzzles to be resolved, it is premature to view them as a basis for rejecting the Solow
- 59. model. The Solowmodel predicts that the marginal product of capital will be high in low-saving countries, but it does not necessarily predict that real interest rates will also be high. One can infer the marginal product of capital from real interest rates on financial assets only if investors are optimizing and capital markets are perfect. Both of these assumptions are questionable. It is 13. There is an alternative way of obtaining the marginal product of capital, which applies even outside of the steady state but requires an estimate of I and the assumption of no country-specific shifts to the production function. If one assumes that the returns on human and physical capital are equalized within each country, then one can show that the MPK is proportional toy(a+P- 1)/(a+P). Therefore, for the textbook Solow model in which a = 1/3 and I = 0, the MPK is inversely proportional to the square of output. As King and Rebelo [1989] and others have noted, the implied differences in rates of return across countries are incredibly large. Yet if a = 0 = 1/3, then the MPK is inversely proportional to the square root of output. In this case, the implied cross-country differences in the MPK are much smaller and are similar to those obtained with equation (17). This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp
- 60. THE EMPIRICS OFECONOMIC GROWTH 431 possible that some of the most productive investments in poor countries are in public capital, and that the behavior of the governments of poor countries is not socially optimal. In addition, it is possible that the marginal product of private capital is also high in poor countries, yet those economic agents who could make the productive investments do not do so because they face fi- nancing constraints or because they fear future expropriation. Some evidence for this interpretation comes from examining international variation in the rate of profit. If capital earns its marginal product, then one can measure the marginal product of capital as MPK=Ky That is, the return to capital equals capital's share in income (a) divided by the capital-output ratio (K/Y). The available evidence indicates that capital's share is roughly constant across counties. Sachs [1979, Table 3] presents factor shares for the G-7 countries. His figures show that variation in these shares across countries and over time is small.'4 By contrast, capital-output ratios vary substantially across countries: accumulating the investment data from Summers and Heston [1988] to produce estimates of the capital stock, one finds that low-saving countries have capital- output ratios near one and high-saving countries have capital- output ratios near three. Thus, direct measurement of the profit rate suggests that there is large international variation in the return to capital.
- 61. The available evidencealso indicates that expropriation risk is one reason that capital does not move to eliminate these differences in the profit rate. Williams [1975] examines the experience of foreign investment in developing countries from 1956 to 1972. He reports that, during this period, governments nationalized about 19 percent of foreign capital, and that compensation averaged about 41 percent of book value. It is hard to say precisely how much of the observed differences in profit rates this expropriation risk can explain. Yet, in view of this risk, it would be surprising if the 14. In particular, there is no evidence that rapid capital accumulation raises capital's share. Sachs [1979] reports that Japan's rapid accumulation in the 1960s and 1970s, for example, was associated with a rise in labor's share from 69 percent in 1962-1964 to 77 percent in 1975-1978. See also Atkinson [1975, p. 167]. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 432 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS profit rates were not at least somewhat higher in developing countries.
- 62. Further evidence onrates of return comes from the large literature on international differences in the return to education. Psacharopoulos [1985] summarizes the results of studies for over 60 countries that analyze the determinants of labor earnings using micro data. Because forgone wages are the primary cost of educa- tion, the rate of return is roughly the percentage increase in the wage resulting from an additional year of schooling. He reports that the poorer the country, the larger the return to schooling. Overall, the evidence on the return to capital appears consis- tent with the Solow model. Indeed, one might argue that it supports the Solow model against the alternative of endogenous- growth models. Many endogenous-growth models assume constant returns to scale in the reproducible factors of production; they therefore imply that the rate of return should not vary with the level of development. Yet direct measurement of profit rates and returns to schooling indicates that the rate of return is much higher in poor countries. CONCLUSION We have suggested that international differences in income per capita are best understood using an augmented Solow growth model. In this model output is produced from physical capital, human capital, and labor, and is used for investment in physical capital, investment in human capital, and consumption. One production function that is consistent with our empirical results is Y= K1/3H1"31/3. This model of economic growth has several implications. First,
- 63. the elasticity ofincome with respect to the stock of physical capital is not substantially different from capital's share in income. This conclusion indicates, in contrast to Romer's suggestion, that capital receives approximately its social return. In other words, there are not substantial externalities to the accumulation of physical capital. Second, despite the absence of externalities, the accumulation of physical capital has a larger impact on income per capita than the textbook Solow model implies. A higher saving rate leads to higher income in steady state, which in turn leads to a higher level of human capital, even if the rate of human-capital accumulation is This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 433 unchanged. Higher saving thus raises total factor productivity as it is usually measured. This difference between the textbook model and the augmented model is quantitatively important. The text- book Solow model with a capital share of one third indicates that the elasticity of income with respect to the saving rate is one half. Our augmented Solow model indicates that this elasticity is one.
- 64. Third, population growthalso has a larger impact on income per capita than the textbook model indicates. In the textbook model higher population growth lowers income because the available capital must be spread more thinly over the population of workers. In the augmented model human capital also must be spread more thinly, implying that higher population growth lowers measured total factor productivity. Again, this effect is important quantita- tively. In the textbook model with a capital share of one third, the elasticity of income per capita with respect to n + g + 8 is - '/2. In our augmented model this elasticity is -2. Fourth, our model has implications for the dynamics of the economy when the economy is not in steady state. In contrast to endogenous-growth models, this model predicts that countries with similar technologies and rates of accumulation and population growth should converge in income per capita. Yet this convergence occurs more slowly than the textbook Solow model suggests. The textbook Solow model implies that the economy reaches halfway to steady state in about 17 years, whereas our augmented Solow model implies that the economy reaches halfway in about 35 years. More generally, our results indicate that the Solow model is consistent with the international evidence if one acknowledges the importance of human as well as physical capital. The augmented
- 65. Solow model saysthat differences in saving, education, and popula- tion growth should explain cross-country differences in income per capita. Our examination of the data indicates that these three variables do explain most of the international variation. Future research should be directed at explaining why the variables taken to be exogenous in the Solow model vary so much from country to country. We expect that differences in tax policies, education policies, tastes for children, and political stability will end up among the ultimate determinants of cross-country differ- ences. We also expect that the Solow model will provide the best framework for understanding how these determinants influence a country's level of economic well-being. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 434 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS APPENDIX GDP/ Growth Sample adult 1960-1985 I/Y SCHOOL working
- 66. Number Country NI 0 1960 1985 GDP age pop 1 Algeria 1 1 0 2485 4371 4.8 2.6 24.1 4.5 2 Angola 1 0 0 1588 1171 0.8 2.1 5.8 1.8 3 Benin 1 0 0 1116 1071 2.2 2.4 10.8 1.8 4 Botswana 1 1 0 959 3671 8.6 3.2 28.3 2.9 5 Burkina Faso 1 0 0 529 857 2.9 0.9 12.7 0.4 6 Burundi 1 0 0 755 663 1.2 1.7 5.1 0.4 7 Cameroon 1 1 0 889 2190 5.7 2.1 12.8 3.4 8 CentralAfr. Rep. 1 0 0 838 789 1.5 1.7 10.5 1.4 9 Chad 1 0 0 908 462 -0.9 1.9 6.9 0.4 10 Congo, Peop. Rep. 1 0 0 1009 2624 6.2 2.4 28.8 3.8 11 Egypt 1 0 0 907 2160 6.0 2.5 16.3 7.0 12 Ethiopia 1 1 0 533 608 2.8 2.3 5.4 1.1 13 Gabon 0 0 0 1307 5350 7.0 1.4 22.1 2.6 14 Gambia, The 0 0 0 799 3.6 18.1 1.5 15 Ghana 1 0 0 1009 727 1.0 2.3 9.1 4.7 16 Guinea 0 0 0 746 869 2.2 1.6 10.9 17 Ivory Coast 1 1 0 1386 1704 5.1 4.3 12.4 2.3 18 Kenya 1 1 0 944 1329 4.8 3.4 17.4 2.4 19 Lesotho 0 0 0 431 1483 6.8 1.9 12.6 2.0 20 Liberia 1 0 0 863 944 3.3 3.0 21.5 2.5 21 Madagascar 1 1 0 1194 975 1.4 2.2 7.1 2.6 22 Malawi 1 1 0 455 823 4.8 2.4 13.2 0.6 23 Mali 1 1 0 737 710 2.1 2.2 7.3 1.0 24 Mauritania 1 0 0 777 1038 3.3 2.2 25.6 1.0 25 Mauritius 1 0 0 1973 2967 4.2 2.6 17.1 7.3 26 Morocco 1 1 0 1030 2348 5.8 2.5 8.3 3.6 27 Mozambique 1 0 0 1420 1035 1.4 2.7 6.1 0.7 28 Niger 1 0 0 539 841 4.4 2.6 10.3 0.5 29 Nigeria 1 1 0 1055 1186 2.8 2.4 12.0 2.3 30 Rwanda 1 0 0 460 696 4.5 2.8 7.9 0.4 31 Senegal 1 1 0 1392 1450 2.5 2.3 9.6 1.7 32 Sierra Leone 1 0 0 511 805 3.4 1.6 10.9 1.7 33 Somalia 1 0 0 901 657 1.8 3.1 13.8 1.1
- 67. 34 S. Africa1 1 0 4768 7064 3.9 2.3 21.6 3.0 35 Sudan 1 0 0 1254 1038 1.8 2.6 13.2 2.0 36 Swaziland 0 0 0 817 7.2 17.7 3.7 37 Tanzania 1 1 0 383 710 5.3 2.9 18.0 0.5 38 Togo 1 0 0 777 978 3.4 2.5 15.5 2.9 39 Tunisia 1 1 0 1623 3661 5.6 2.4 13.8 4.3 40 Uganda 1 0 0 601 667 3.5 3.1 4.1 1.1 41 Zaire 1 0 0 594 412 0.9 2.4 6.5 3.6 42 Zambia 1 1 0 1410 1217 2.1 2.7 31.7 2.4 43 Zimbabwe 1 1 0 1187 2107 5.1 2.8 21.1 4.4 This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 435 APPENDIX (CONTINUED) GDP/ Growth Sample adult 1960-1985 I/Y SCHOOL working Number Country N I 0 1960 1985 GDP age pop 44 Afghanistan 0 0 0 1224 1.6 6.9 0.9 45 Bahrain 0 0 0 30.0 12.1 46 Bangladesh 1 1 0 846 1221 4.0 2.6 6.8 3.2 47 Burma 1 1 0 517 1031 4.5 1.7 11.4 3.5 48 Hong Kong 1 1 0 3085 13,372 8.9 3.0 19.9 7.2 49 India 1 1 0 978 1339 3.6 2.4 16.8 5.1
- 68. 50 Iran 00 0 3606 7400 6.3 3.4 18.4 6.5 51 Iraq 0 0 0 4916 5626 3.8 3.2 16.2 7.4 52 Israel 1 1 0 4802 10,450 5.9 2.8 28.5 9.5 53 Japan 1 1 1 3493 13,893 6.8 1.2 36.0 10.9 54 Jordan 1 1 0 2183 4312 5.4 2.7 17.6 10.8 55 Korea, Rep. of 1 1 0 1285 4775 7.9 2.7 22.3 10.2 56 Kuwait 0 0 0 77,881 25,635 2.4 6.8 9.5 9.6 57 Malaysia 1 1 0 2154 5788 7.1 3.2 23.2 7.3 58 Nepal 1 0 0 833 974 2.6 2.0 5.9 2.3 59 Oman 0 0 0 15,584 3.3 15.6 2.7 60 Pakistan 1 1 0 1077 2175 5.8 3.0 12.2 3.0 61 Philippines 1 1 0 1668 2430 4.5 3.0 14.9 10.6 62 Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 6731 11,057 6.1 4.1 12.8 3.1 63 Singapore 1 1 0 2793 14,678 9.2 2.6 32.2 9.0 64 Sri Lanka 1 1 0 1794 2482 3.7 2.4 14.8 8.3 65 Syrian Arab Rep. 1 1 0 2382 6042 6.7 3.0 15.9 8.8 66 Taiwan 0 0 0 8.0 20.7 67 Thailand 1 1 0 1308 3220 6.7 3.1 18.0 4.4 68 U. Arab Emirates 0 0 0 18,513 26.5 69 Yemen 0 0 0 1918 2.5 17.2 0.6 70 Austria 1 1 1 5939 13,327 3.6 0.4 23.4 8.0 71 Belgium 1 1 1 6789 14,290 3.5 0.5 23.4 9.3 72 Cyprus 0 0 0 2948 5.2 31.2 8.2 73 Denmark 1 1 1 8551 16,491 3.2 0.6 26.6 10.7 74 Finland 1 1 1 6527 13,779 3.7 0.7 36.9 11.5 75 France 1 1 1 7215 15,027 3.9 1.0 26.2 8.9 76 Germany, Fed. Rep. 1 1 1 7695 15,297 3.3 0.5 28.5 8.4 77 Greece 1 1 1 2257 6868 5.1 0.7 29.3 7.9 78 Iceland 0 0 0 8091 3.9 29.0 10.2 79 Ireland 1 1 1 4411 8675 3.8 1.1 25.9 11.4 80 Italy 1 1 1 4913 11,082 3.8 0.6 24.9 7.1 81 Luxembourg 0 0 0 9015 2.8 26.9 5.0 82 Malta 0 0 0 2293 6.0 30.9 7.1 83 Netherlands 1 1 1 7689 13,177 3.6 1.4 25.8 10.7 84 Norway 1 1 1 7938 19,723 4.3 0.7 29.1 10.0
- 69. This content downloadedfrom 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp 436 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS APPENDIX (CONTINUED) GDPI Growth Sample adult 1960-1985 I/Y SCHOOL working Number Country N I 0 1960 1985 GDP age pop 85 Portugal 1 1 1 2272 5827 4.4 0.6 22.5 5.8 86 Spain 1 1 1 3766 9903 4.9 1.0 17.7 8.0 87 Sweden 1 1 1 7802 15,237 3.1 0.4 24.5 7.9 88 Switzerland 1 1 1 10,308 15,881 2.5 0.8 29.7 4.8 89 Turkey 1 1 1 2274 4444 5.2 2.5 20.2 5.5 90 United Kingdom 1 1 1 7634 13,331 2.5 0.3 18.4 8.9 91 Barbados 0 0 0 3165 4.8 19.5 12.1 92 Canada 1 1 1 10,286 17,935 4.2 2.0 23.3 10.6 93 Costa Rica 1 1 0 3360 4492 4.7 3.5 14.7 7.0 94 Dominican Rep. 1 1 0 1939 3308 5.1 2.9 17.1 5.8 95 El Salvador 1 1 0 2042 1997 3.3 3.3 8.0 3.9 96 Guatemala 1 1 0 2481 3034 3.9 3.1 8.8 2.4 97 Haiti 1 1 0 1096 1237 1.8 1.3 7.1 1.9 98 Honduras 1 1 0 1430 1822 4.0 3.1 13.8 3.7 99 Jamaica 1 1 0 2726 3080 2.1 1.6 20.6 11.2 100 Mexico 1 1 0 4229 7380 5.5 3.3 19.5 6.6
- 70. 101 Nicaragua 11 0 3195 3978 4.1 3.3 14.5 5.8 102 Panama 1 1 0 2423 5021 5.9 3.0 26.1 11.6 103 Trinidad & Tobago 1 1 0 9253 11,285 2.7 1.9 20.4 8.8 104 United States 1 1 1 12,362 18,988 3.2 1.5 21.1 11.9 105 Argentina 1 1 0 4852 5533 2.1 1.5 25.3 5.0 106 Bolivia 1 1 0 1618 2055 3.3 2.4 13.3 4.9 107 Brazil 1 1 0 1842 5563 7.3 2.9 23.2 4.7 108 Chile 1 1 0 5189 5533 2.6 2.3 29.7 7.7 109 Colombia 1 1 0 2672 4405 5.0 3.0 18.0 6.1 110 Ecuador 1 1 0 2198 4504 5.7 2.8 24.4 7.2 111 Guyana 0 0 0 2761 1.1 32.4 11.7 112 Paraguay 1 1 0 1951 3914 5.5 2.7 11.7 4.4 113 Peru 1 1 0 3310 3775 3.5 2.9 12.0 8.0 114 Surinam 0 0 0 3226 4.5 19.4 8.1 115 Uruguay 1 1 0 5119 5495 0.9 0.6 11.8 7.0 116 Venezuela 1 1 0 10,367 6336 1.9 3.8 11.4 7.0 117 Australia 1 1 1 8440 13,409 3.8 2.0 31.5 9.8 118 Fiji 0 0 0 3634 4.2 20.6 8.1 119 Indonesia 1 1 0 879 2159 5.5 1.9 13.9 4.1 120 New Zealand 1 1 1 9523 12,308 2.7 1.7 22.5 11.9 121 Papua New Guinea 1 0 0 1781 2544 3.5 2.1 16.2 1.5 Note. Growth rates are in percent per year. IIY is investment as a percentage of GDP, and SCHOOL is the percentage of the working-age population in secondary school, both averaged for the period 1960-1985. N, I, and 0 denote the non-oil, intermediate, and OECD samples. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp THE EMPIRICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 437
- 71. HARVARD UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OFCALIFORNIA AT BERKELEY BROWN UNIVERSITY REFERENCES Atkinson, Anthony, The Economics of Inequality (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1975). Azariadis, Costas, and Allan Drazen, "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," Quarterly Journal of Economics, CV (1990), 501-26. Barro, Robert J., "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Paper 3120, September 1989. De Long, J. Bradford, "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review, LXXVIII (1988), 1138-54. Dowrick, Steve, and Duc-Tho Nguyen, "OECD Comparative Economic Growth 1950-85: Catch-Up and Convergence," American Economic Review, LXXIX (1989),1010-30. Easterlin, Richard, "Why Isn't the Whole World Developed?" Journal of Economic History, XLI (1981),1-20. Feldstein, Martin, and Charles Horioka, "Domestic Saving and International
- 72. Capital Flows," EconomicJournal, XC (1980), 314-29. Kendrick, John W., The Formation and Stocks of Total Capital (New York: Columbia University for NBER, 1976). King, Robert G., and Sergio T. Rebelo, "Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model," NBER Working Paper 3185, November 1989. Krueger, Anne O., "Factor Endowments and per Capita Income Differences Among Countries," Economic Journal, LXXVIII (1968), 641-59. Lucas, Robert E. Jr., "On the Mechanics of Economic Development," Journal of Monetary Economics, XXII (1988), 3-42. Psacharopoulos, George, "Returns to Education: A Further International Update and Implications," Journal of Human Resources, XX (1985), 583-604. Rauch, James E., "The Question of International Convergence of per Capita Consumption: An Euler Equation Approach," mimeo, August 1988, University of California at San Diego. Romer, Paul, "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Macro- economicsAnnual, 1987,163-210. Capital Accumulation in the Theory of Long Run Growth,"
- 73. Modern Business Cycle Theory,Robert J. Barro, ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univer- sity Press, 1989a), pp. 51-127. "Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Paper 3173, November 1989b. Sachs, Jeffrey D., "Wages, Profit, and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Comparative Study," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1979:2), 269- 332. Solow, Robert M., "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXX (1956), 65-94. Summers, Robert, and Alan Heston, "A New Set of International Comparisons of Real Product and Price Levels Estimates for 130 Countries, 1950-85," Review of Income and Wealth, XXXIV (1988),1-26. Williams, M. L., "The Extent and Significance of Nationalization of Foreign-owned Assets in Developing Countries, 1956-1972," Oxford Economic Papers, XXVII (1975), 260-73. This content downloaded from 141.241.43.86 on Tue, 21 Oct 2014 08:12:36 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jspArticle Contentsp. [407]p. 408p. 409p. 410p. 411p. 412p. 413p. 414p.
- 74. 415p. 416p. 417p.418p. 419p. 420p. 421p. 422p. 423p. 424p. 425p. 426p. 427p. 428p. 429p. 430p. 431p. 432p. 433p. 434p. 435p. 436p. 437Issue Table of ContentsThe Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 2 (May, 1992), pp. 327-796Front MatterVoters as Fiscal Conservatives [pp. 327-361]On Diversity [pp. 363-405]A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth [pp. 407-437]Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men [pp. 439-479]Why is Production More Volatile than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding [pp. 481-510]Asymmetric Tournaments, Equal Opportunity Laws, and Affirmative Action: Some Experimental Results [pp. 511-539]Economics of Direct Legislation [pp. 541-571]Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation [pp. 573-597]Judging Factor Abundance [pp. 599-620]Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles? [pp. 621-656]Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity: Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits [pp. 657- 680]Coordination in Split Award Auctions [pp. 681-707]How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data? [pp. 709- 738]Communication in Coordination Games [pp. 739- 771]Financial Assets, Inflation Hedges, and Capital Utilization in Developing Countries: An Extension of McKinnon's Complementarity Hypothesis [pp. 773-784]Optimal Financial Contracting with Ex Post and Ex Ante Observability Problems [pp. 785-795]Back Matter [pp. 796-796] Eviews.wf1 Gretl.gdt Gretl.gdt 18 Nov 2008 16:55 Data imported from Stata file 'mrw.dta', 2014-10-10 14:48
- 75. 1 1 11 0 2485 4371 4.8000001907348633 2.5999999046325684 24.100000381469727 4.5 2 2 1 0 0 1588 1171 0.80000001192092896 2.0999999046325684 5.8000001907348633 1.7999999523162842 3 3 1 0 0 1116 1071 2.2000000476837158 2.4000000953674316 10.800000190734863 1.7999999523162842 4 4 1 1 0 959 3671 8.6000003814697266 3.2000000476837158 28.299999237060547 2.9000000953674316 5 5 1 0 0 529 857 2.9000000953674316 0.89999997615814209 12.699999809265137 0.40000000596046448 6 6 1 0 0 755 663 1.2000000476837158 1.7000000476837158 5.0999999046325684 0.40000000596046448 7 7 1 1 0 889 2190 5.6999998092651367 2.0999999046325684 12.800000190734863 3.4000000953674316 8 8 1 0 0 838 789 1.5 1.7000000476837158 10.5 1.3999999761581421 9 9 1 0 0 908 462 -0.89999997615814209 1.8999999761581421 6.9000000953674316 0.40000000596046448 10 10 1 0 0 1009 2624 6.1999998092651367 2.4000000953674316 28.799999237060547
- 76. 3.7999999523162842 11 11 10 0 907 2160 6 2.5 16.299999237060547 7 12 12 1 1 0 533 608 2.7999999523162842 2.2999999523162842 5.4000000953674316 1.1000000238418579 13 13 0 0 0 1307 5350 7 1.3999999761581421 22.100000381469727 2.5999999046325684 14 14 0 0 0 799 NA 3.5999999046325684 NA 18.100000381469727 1.5 15 15 1 0 0 1009 727 1 2.2999999523162842 9.1000003814697266 4.6999998092651367 16 16 0 0 0 746 869 2.2000000476837158 1.6000000238418579 10.899999618530273 NA 17 17 1 1 0 1386 1704 5.0999999046325684 4.3000001907348633 12.399999618530273 2.2999999523162842 18 18 1 1 0 944 1329 4.8000001907348633 3.4000000953674316 17.399999618530273 2.4000000953674316 19 19 0 0 0 431 1483 6.8000001907348633 1.8999999761581421 12.600000381469727 2 20 20 1 0 0 863 944 3.2999999523162842 3 21.5 2.5 21 21 1 1 0 1194 975 1.3999999761581421 2.2000000476837158 7.0999999046325684 2.5999999046325684 22 22 1 1 0 455 823 4.8000001907348633 2.4000000953674316 13.199999809265137 0.60000002384185791 23 23 1 1 0 737 710 2.0999999046325684 2.2000000476837158 7.3000001907348633 1 24 24 1 0 0 777 1038 3.2999999523162842 2.2000000476837158 25.600000381469727 1 25 25 1 0 0 1973 2967 4.1999998092651367 2.5999999046325684 17.100000381469727 7.3000001907348633 26 26 1 1 0 1030 2348 5.8000001907348633 2.5
- 77. 8.3000001907348633 3.5999999046325684 27 271 0 0 1420 1035 1.3999999761581421 2.7000000476837158 6.0999999046325684 0.69999998807907104 28 28 1 0 0 539 841 4.4000000953674316 2.5999999046325684 10.300000190734863 0.5 29 29 1 1 0 1055 1186 2.7999999523162842 2.4000000953674316 12 2.2999999523162842 30 30 1 0 0 460 696 4.5 2.7999999523162842 7.9000000953674316 0.40000000596046448 31 31 1 1 0 1392 1450 2.5 2.2999999523162842 9.6000003814697266 1.7000000476837158 32 32 1 0 0 511 805 3.4000000953674316 1.6000000238418579 10.899999618530273 1.7000000476837158 33 33 1 0 0 901 657 1.7999999523162842 3.0999999046325684 13.800000190734863 1.1000000238418579 34 34 1 1 0 4768 7064 3.9000000953674316 2.2999999523162842 21.600000381469727 3 35 35 1 0 0 1254 1038 1.7999999523162842 2.5999999046325684 13.199999809265137 2 36 36 0 0 0 817 NA 7.1999998092651367 NA 17.700000762939453 3.7000000476837158 37 37 1 1 0 383 710 5.3000001907348633 2.9000000953674316 18 0.5 38 38 1 0 0 777 978 3.4000000953674316 2.5 15.5 2.9000000953674316 39 39 1 1 0 1623 3661 5.5999999046325684 2.4000000953674316 13.800000190734863 4.3000001907348633 40 40 1 0 0 601 667 3.5 3.0999999046325684 4.0999999046325684 1.1000000238418579 41 41 1 0 0 594 412 0.89999997615814209 2.4000000953674316 6.5 3.5999999046325684 42 42 1 1 0 1410 1217 2.0999999046325684
- 78. 2.7000000476837158 31.700000762939453 2.4000000953674316 43 431 1 0 1187 2107 5.0999999046325684 2.7999999523162842 21.100000381469727 4.4000000953674316 44 44 0 0 0 1224 NA 1.6000000238418579 NA 6.9000000953674316 0.89999997615814209 45 45 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA 30 12.100000381469727 46 46 1 1 0 846 1221 4 2.5999999046325684 6.8000001907348633 3.2000000476837158 47 47 1 1 0 517 1031 4.5 1.7000000476837158 11.399999618530273 3.5 48 48 1 1 0 3085 13372 8.8999996185302734 3 19.899999618530273 7.1999998092651367 49 49 1 1 0 978 1339 3.5999999046325684 2.4000000953674316 16.799999237060547 5.0999999046325684 50 50 0 0 0 3606 7400 6.3000001907348633 3.4000000953674316 18.399999618530273 6.5 51 51 0 0 0 4916 5626 3.7999999523162842 3.2000000476837158 16.200000762939453 7.4000000953674316 52 52 1 1 0 4802 10450 5.9000000953674316 2.7999999523162842 28.5 9.5 53 53 1 1 1 3493 13893 6.8000001907348633 1.2000000476837158 36 10.899999618530273 54 54 1 1 0 2183 4312 5.4000000953674316 2.7000000476837158 17.600000381469727 10.800000190734863 55 55 1 1 0 1285 4775 7.9000000953674316 2.7000000476837158 22.299999237060547 10.199999809265137 56 56 0 0 0 77881 25635 2.4000000953674316 6.8000001907348633 9.5 9.6000003814697266 57 57 1 1 0 2154 5788 7.0999999046325684 3.2000000476837158 23.200000762939453
- 79. 7.3000001907348633 58 58 10 0 833 974 2.5999999046325684 2 5.9000000953674316 2.2999999523162842 59 59 0 0 0 NA 15584 NA 3.2999999523162842 15.600000381469727 2.7000000476837158 60 60 1 1 0 1077 2175 5.8000001907348633 3 12.199999809265137 3 61 61 1 1 0 1668 2430 4.5 3 14.899999618530273 10.600000381469727 62 62 0 0 0 6731 11057 6.0999999046325684 4.0999999046325684 12.800000190734863 3.0999999046325684 63 63 1 1 0 2793 14678 9.1999998092651367 2.5999999046325684 32.200000762939453 9 64 64 1 1 0 1794 2482 3.7000000476837158 2.4000000953674316 14.800000190734863 8.3000001907348633 65 65 1 1 0 2382 6042 6.6999998092651367 3 15.899999618530273 8.8000001907348633 66 66 0 0 0 NA NA 8 NA 20.700000762939453 NA 67 67 1 1 0 1308 3220 6.6999998092651367 3.0999999046325684 18 4.4000000953674316 68 68 0 0 0 NA 18513 NA NA 26.5 NA 69 69 0 0 0 NA 1918 NA 2.5 17.200000762939453 0.60000002384185791 70 70 1 1 1 5939 13327 3.5999999046325684 0.40000000596046448 23.399999618530273 8 71 71 1 1 1 6789 14290 3.5 0.5 23.399999618530273 9.3000001907348633 72 72 0 0 0 2948 NA 5.1999998092651367 NA 31.200000762939453 8.1999998092651367 73 73 1 1 1 8551 16491 3.2000000476837158 0.60000002384185791 26.600000381469727 10.699999809265137 74 74 1 1 1 6527 13779 3.7000000476837158 0.69999998807907104 36.900001525878906 11.5
- 80. 75 75 11 1 7215 15027 3.9000000953674316 1 26.200000762939453 8.8999996185302734 76 76 1 1 1 7695 15297 3.2999999523162842 0.5 28.5 8.3999996185302734 77 77 1 1 1 2257 6868 5.0999999046325684 0.69999998807907104 29.299999237060547 7.9000000953674316 78 78 0 0 0 8091 NA 3.9000000953674316 NA 29 10.199999809265137 79 79 1 1 1 4411 8675 3.7999999523162842 1.1000000238418579 25.899999618530273 11.399999618530273 80 80 1 1 1 4913 11082 3.7999999523162842 0.60000002384185791 24.899999618530273 7.0999999046325684 81 81 0 0 0 9015 NA 2.7999999523162842 NA 26.899999618530273 5 82 82 0 0 0 2293 NA 6 NA 30.899999618530273 7.0999999046325684 83 83 1 1 1 7689 13177 3.5999999046325684 1.3999999761581421 25.799999237060547 10.699999809265137 84 84 1 1 1 7938 19723 4.3000001907348633 0.69999998807907104 29.100000381469727 10 85 85 1 1 1 2272 5827 4.4000000953674316 0.60000002384185791 22.5 5.8000001907348633 86 86 1 1 1 3766 9903 4.9000000953674316 1 17.700000762939453 8 87 87 1 1 1 7802 15237 3.0999999046325684 0.40000000596046448 24.5 7.9000000953674316 88 88 1 1 1 10308 15881 2.5 0.80000001192092896 29.700000762939453 4.8000001907348633 89 89 1 1 1 2274 4444 5.1999998092651367 2.5 20.200000762939453 5.5 90 90 1 1 1 7634 13331 2.5 0.30000001192092896 18.399999618530273 8.8999996185302734
- 81. 91 91 00 0 3165 NA 4.8000001907348633 NA 19.5 12.100000381469727 92 92 1 1 1 10286 17935 4.1999998092651367 2 23.299999237060547 10.600000381469727 93 93 1 1 0 3360 4492 4.6999998092651367 3.5 14.699999809265137 7 94 94 1 1 0 1939 3308 5.0999999046325684 2.9000000953674316 17.100000381469727 5.8000001907348633 95 95 1 1 0 2042 1997 3.2999999523162842 3.2999999523162842 8 3.9000000953674316 96 96 1 1 0 2481 3034 3.9000000953674316 3.0999999046325684 8.8000001907348633 2.4000000953674316 97 97 1 1 0 1096 1237 1.7999999523162842 1.2999999523162842 7.0999999046325684 1.8999999761581421 98 98 1 1 0 1430 1822 4 3.0999999046325684 13.800000190734863 3.7000000476837158 99 99 1 1 0 2726 3080 2.0999999046325684 1.6000000238418579 20.600000381469727 11.199999809265137 100 100 1 1 0 4229 7380 5.5 3.2999999523162842 19.5 6.5999999046325684 101 101 1 1 0 3195 3978 4.0999999046325684 3.2999999523162842 14.5 5.8000001907348633 102 102 1 1 0 2423 5021 5.9000000953674316 3 26.100000381469727 11.600000381469727 103 103 1 1 0 9253 11285 2.7000000476837158 1.8999999761581421 20.399999618530273 8.8000001907348633 104 104 1 1 1 12362 18988 3.2000000476837158 1.5 21.100000381469727 11.899999618530273 105 105 1 1 0 4852 5533 2.0999999046325684 1.5 25.299999237060547 5 106 106 1 1 0 1618 2055 3.2999999523162842
- 82. 2.4000000953674316 13.300000190734863 4.9000000953674316 107 1071 1 0 1842 5563 7.3000001907348633 2.9000000953674316 23.200000762939453 4.6999998092651367 108 108 1 1 0 5189 5533 2.5999999046325684 2.2999999523162842 29.700000762939453 7.6999998092651367 109 109 1 1 0 2672 4405 5 3 18 6.0999999046325684 110 110 1 1 0 2198 4504 5.6999998092651367 2.7999999523162842 24.399999618530273 7.1999998092651367 111 111 0 0 0 2761 NA 1.1000000238418579 NA 32.400001525878906 11.699999809265137 112 112 1 1 0 1951 3914 5.5 2.7000000476837158 11.699999809265137 4.4000000953674316 113 113 1 1 0 3310 3775 3.5 2.9000000953674316 12 8 114 114 0 0 0 3226 NA 4.5 NA 19.399999618530273 8.1000003814697266 115 115 1 1 0 5119 5495 0.89999997615814209 0.60000002384185791 11.800000190734863 7 116 116 1 1 0 10367 6336 1.8999999761581421 3.7999999523162842 11.399999618530273 7 117 117 1 1 1 8440 13409 3.7999999523162842 2 31.5 9.8000001907348633 118 118 0 0 0 3634 NA 4.1999998092651367 NA 20.600000381469727 8.1000003814697266 119 119 1 1 0 879 2159 5.5 1.8999999761581421 13.899999618530273 4.0999999046325684 120 120 1 1 1 9523 12308 2.7000000476837158 1.7000000476837158 22.5 11.899999618530273 121 121 1 0 0 1781 2544 3.5 2.0999999046325684 16.200000762939453 1.5 "Algeria" "Angola" "Benin" "Botswana" "Burkina Faso"
- 83. "Burundi" "Cameroon" "CentralAfr. Rep." "Chad" "Congo," "Egypt" "Ethiopia" "Gabon" "Gambia, The" "Ghana" "Guinea" "Ivory Coast" "Kenya" "Lesotho" "Liberia" "Madagascar" "Malawi" "Mali" "Mauritania" "Mauritius" "Morocco" "Mozambique" "Niger" "Nigeria" "Rwanda" "Senegal" "Sierra Leone" "Somalia" "S. Africa" "Sudan" "Swaziland" "Tanzania" "Togo" "Tunisia" "Uganda" "Zaire" "Zambia" "Zimbabwe" "Afghanistan" "Bahrain" "Bangladesh" "Burma" "Hong Kong" "India" "Iran" "Iraq" "Israel" "Japan" "Jordan" "Korea, South" "Kuwait" "Malaysia" "Nepal" "Oman" "Pakistan" "Philippines" "Saudi Arabia" "Singapore" "Sri Lanka" "Syria" "Taiwan" "Thailand" "U.A.E." "Yemen" "Austria" "Belgium" "Cyprus" "Denmark" "Finland" "France" "Germany, W." "Greece" "Iceland" "Ireland" "Italy" "Luxembourg" "Malta" "Netherlands" "Norway" "Portugal" "Spain" "Sweden" "Switzerland" "Turkey" "United Kingdom" "Barbados" "Canada" "Costa Rica" "Dominican Rep." "El Salvador" "Guatemala" "Haiti" "Honduras" "Jamaica" "Mexico" "Nicaragua" "Panama" "Trinidad and Tobago" "United States" "Argentina" "Bolivia" "Brazil" "Chile" "Colombia" "Ecuador" "Guyana" "Paraguay" "Peru" "Surinam" "Uruguay" "Venezuela" "Australia" "Fiji" "Indonesia" "New Zealand" "Papua New Guinea"